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TanTH
TanTH
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2022-03-15
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The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices "swing wildly" between rebounds and plunges
全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪
The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices "swing wildly" between rebounds and plunges
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TanTH
TanTH
·
2022-01-24
$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$
😭😢😅😂
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TanTH
TanTH
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2022-01-06
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
2022 discount
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-09-02
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Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%
周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。
Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%
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TanTH
TanTH
·
2021-08-31
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XPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%
上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。
XPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-31
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91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar
这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。
91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-24
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A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a "rising chorus"
FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800...
A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a "rising chorus"
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-06
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Sorry, this post has been deleted
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-01
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-01
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China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion
8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持
China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion
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","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032389283","repostId":"1178901868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178901868","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1647270835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178901868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, while<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"</b></p><p>Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"<b>There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surges</b></p><p>The volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\"</b>, that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt funds are popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, while<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"</b></p><p>Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"<b>There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surges</b></p><p>The volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\"</b>, that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt funds are popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国国债价格大幅上涨，收益率不断下滑，避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一，同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债，以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到，在上周，情形似乎出现了反转，随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点，美债避险买盘逐渐退场，两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶，显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天，10年期美债再次被大幅抛售，收益率一度达到2.10%，创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日，10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%，最后以1.958%高点收盘，在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%，最后以2.021%高点收盘，在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情，究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后，尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金，但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中，做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘，或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况，一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事，以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注，认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡，长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时，资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金，以过渡经济增长放缓时期，有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示：“毫无疑问，这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出，在过去两年接近零利率的情况下，长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动，因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响，导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会，但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示，自俄乌冲突升级以来，美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示，花旗的衡量指标显示，美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降，“当时有一种观点认为，这是一个不错的获利机会，而现在有一种情绪，认为我们应该脚踏实地，减少交易规模。”值得注意的是，在上周，美国银行业曾指出，在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下，一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示，交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性，而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上，并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出，在上周二，追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点，为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周，在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%，超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来，大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈，市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓，甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”，即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡，短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日，两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点，这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过，在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际，长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示，部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权，如果明年美国经济大幅放缓，收益率从当前水平回落，这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示，该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底，该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产，Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为，收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处，他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣，这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险，并专注于短端美债，他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看，投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是，与去年相比，今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间，而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说，收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短，并试图回到中性水平，因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007776016,"gmtCreate":1643025925612,"gmtModify":1676533765876,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","text":"$Exela Technologies, 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","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816425366","repostId":"1170877267","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170877267","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630506252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170877267?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170877267","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Rose nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPopular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Rose nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170877267","content_text":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818497606,"gmtCreate":1630423932105,"gmtModify":1676530300912,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818497606","repostId":"1169845430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169845430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630412757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169845430?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 20:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169845430","media":"新浪科技","summary":"上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。","content":"<p>On the evening of August 31, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It was announced today that the company's total revenue in the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%; The net loss in the first half of the year was RMB 1.981 billion, compared with a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 202:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 30,738 units, an increase of 459% from 5,499 units for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began batch deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered for the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% can support XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automobile's physical sales and service network includes 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the number of XPeng Automobile brand super charging stations has expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6, 712.2 million (US $1,039.6 million), an increase of 569.3% from RMB1, 002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Revenue from automobile sales for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB6, 394.7 million (US $990.4 million), an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Automobile gross profit margin (i.e. gross profit from automobile sales as a percentage of automobile sales revenue) was 10.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1, 981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption options, non-GAAP net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB 2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to redemption options in preferred shares, and increases in redemption values in preferred shares, non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US $0.39), and basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share was RMB1.25 (US $0.19).</p><p>Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was both RMB2.26 (US $0.35), compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US $0.17). Each ADS represents two shares of Class A common stock.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32, 871.2 million (US $5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>July 2021, XPeng Automobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, an increase of 228% year-on-year. Included in July deliveries are 6,054 P7 (XPeng Motor's smart sports sedan) and 1,986 G3 (XPeng Motor's compact smart SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, an increase of 388% year-on-year.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 20:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of August 31, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It was announced today that the company's total revenue in the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%; The net loss in the first half of the year was RMB 1.981 billion, compared with a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 202:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 30,738 units, an increase of 459% from 5,499 units for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began batch deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered for the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% can support XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automobile's physical sales and service network includes 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the number of XPeng Automobile brand super charging stations has expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6, 712.2 million (US $1,039.6 million), an increase of 569.3% from RMB1, 002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Revenue from automobile sales for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB6, 394.7 million (US $990.4 million), an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Automobile gross profit margin (i.e. gross profit from automobile sales as a percentage of automobile sales revenue) was 10.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1, 981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption options, non-GAAP net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB 2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to redemption options in preferred shares, and increases in redemption values in preferred shares, non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US $0.39), and basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share was RMB1.25 (US $0.19).</p><p>Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was both RMB2.26 (US $0.35), compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US $0.17). Each ADS represents two shares of Class A common stock.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32, 871.2 million (US $5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>July 2021, XPeng Automobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, an increase of 228% year-on-year. Included in July deliveries are 6,054 P7 (XPeng Motor's smart sports sedan) and 1,986 G3 (XPeng Motor's compact smart SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, an increase of 388% year-on-year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401f7adefb705cb1d679bb39b97c03e1","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169845430","content_text":"北京时间8月31日晚间消息，小鹏汽车今日发布公告称，该公司上半年总收入为人民币67.12亿元，同比上升569.3%；上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。\n202年上半年业绩摘要：\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车交付量为30,738辆，较2020年6月30日止六个月的5,499辆上升459%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月P7交付量为19,496辆。小鹏汽车于2020年6月底开始批量交付P7。\n在截至2021年6月30日止六个月已交付的P7总量中，97%可支持XPILOT 2.5或XPILOT3.0。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车的实体销售和服务网络包括200间门店和64个服务中心，覆盖74个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车品牌超级充电站扩展至231座，覆盖65个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，总收入为人民币67.122亿元（10.396亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币10.029亿元上升569.3%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，汽车销售收入 为人民币63.947亿 元（9.904亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币9.133亿元上升600.2%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月毛利率为11.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负3.6%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车毛利率（即汽车销售毛利润占汽车销售收入的百分比）为10.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负5.5%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（3.068亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币7.958亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支和与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则净亏损为人民币1,7.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币1,4.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（306.8百万美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币20.765亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支、与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动以及优先股赎回价值的增加外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币17.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币14.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.49元（0.39美元），而每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.25元（0.19美元）。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.26元（0.35美元），而非公认会计原则每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.13元（0.17美元）。每一股美国存托股代表两股A类普通股。\n截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期存款、短期投资及长期存款为人民币328.712亿元（50.911亿美元）。\n小鹏汽车7月的交付量：\n2021年7月，小鹏汽车智能电动汽车的总交付量达8,040辆，按年增长228%。 7月的交付中包括6,054辆P7（小鹏汽车的智能运动型轿车）和1,986辆G3（小鹏汽车的紧凑型智能SUV）。截至2021年7月31日，年初至今的交付量达38,778辆，按年增长388%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818028737,"gmtCreate":1630367097929,"gmtModify":1676530280436,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818028737","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he is 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"Physically, I have no value, only a little residual value left. It's really useless, but it doesn't prevent me from working, feeling happy or thinking. I don't feel that my enjoyment and love of life have decreased in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I am in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name always has a strong legendary color, from American Express to Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its concept of \"value investment\" has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is also at the top of the contempt chain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School and learned from Benjamin Graham, who is known as the \"father of value investors\". Under Graham's door, Buffett is like a duck to water.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. Since then, the nature of Berkshire's business has changed. It is no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as an operating platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity, and creating investment myths.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (that is, more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 Index's growth rate was 15,019%. This is only the increase in book value, and Berkshire's intrinsic value has grown much more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source : WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after 53 years of uncanny operation by Buffett, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and precise. The victory of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name of a blue-chip printing company (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy has grown slowly, and the increase in unit price has led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is much more valuable than its book value. It is a brand enterprise, and its products can be sold at a price higher than the production cost, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's working capital. After paying the corporate profit tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive enterprises.</p><p>See-Poetry has brought many new sources of cash to Berkshire, which is just like the description of Berkshire in the Bible: \"plump, fertile and fertile\".</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett once again bought a large amount of GEICO shares, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, with a total cost of US $47.14 million. In the 15 years after 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's equity share had increased to 50% and spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% shares. After owning all the equity, GEICO continues to contribute free insurance float to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep relationship with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about 4 hours explaining the operating model of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO The core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly anticipated commercial castle, then the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of the contradiction between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its share price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of Coca-Cola shares. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, with a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars. The total dividends received during the period were approximately 6 billion US dollars.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks Coke every day and has been living this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live one more year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and chocolate every day can make me happier but lose my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an excellent company, and the management is concerned about the return on capital and tangible cash earnings of shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has a long history of continuity, and the outlook for the next few decades is also clear. Coca-Cola is classified as an \"eternal holding\" by Buffett.</p><p>Other classic cases scattered in Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started buying in 1973, had an equity swap in 2014, with an annualized return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who bought it in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to buy in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>All PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were sold from July to October 2007, with pre-tax investment income of approximately US $3.55 billion;</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>One by one, the vivid cases not only form outstanding investment performance, but also contain changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent enterprise learner, who can quickly and accurately distinguish the complex keys of a company. He can veto an investment in two minutes and make major investment decisions in two days of analysis. He is always ready. As he says in the company's annual report, \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about the trend of the short-term stock market, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of the company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that in his 40-year career, the results of 12 investment decisions have made him unique.</p><p><b>Buffett is not outdated, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, your excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone is competing to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there has been an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concluded that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because Berkshire The ultra-low capital cost of insurance business implies 1.4 ~ 1.6 times leverage in returns.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies to analyze Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a strong advocate of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the part of quantitative traditional finance) on the one hand, and from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the part of behavioral finance), and on the other hand, there is indeed some luck. As the saying goes, the right place and the right time are harmonious, and no one can be less.</p><p>So, what did he do right to achieve such investment achievements? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or self-defense?<b>This time, let's talk about investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding of analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the small and insignificant market value factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factor, and introduced AQR's quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta), forming a new FF five-factor model to more accurately divide the contribution of factors. The assumptions and premises of the specific model will not be repeated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The attribution analysis of Berkshire's excess returns is split above. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2%. In other words, Buffett can achieve such achievements, half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune), and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market capitalization has a negative contribution. It cannot be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here. It may also be that there are discussions on the choice of time periods or indicators. Looking at the new FF5 model that we have improved, we can find that most of the excess returns that have not been explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them is explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the low financing cost, the use of high leverage, the purchase of safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and the long-term holding. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify profits. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the perspective of financing, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He uses debt to drive investment and invests to expand the debt cycle model.</p><p>To sum up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. One third of his success depends on the sky (betting on the luck of the times and the country), and most of it depends on people (his personal investment ability is too excellent).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people all over the world, and there is only a Buffett? Is it just luck? Maybe all the good luck of the whole world is concentrated on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? Still in the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first made a simple CAPM regression analysis on Berkshire's rate of return, and the results were as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where the beta is about 0.65, the cross-sectional alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's null hypothesis that the excess return is 0. Furthermore, from the rate of return, we can see that the excess annualized rate of return obtained by the simple CAPM model has reached 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of yield minus the variance of market yield) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their annual excess returns obey the normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fitting times, and the results are as shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, only 14 of the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck) finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line has been almost always at the top of the entire random fitting part throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained its \"super god\" performance for a long time and has been stable within the top 0.2% range. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still think that they don't agree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the rate of return of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose to look more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Divide 14 investors who perform better than Buffett into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and take the largest, 75% percentile, 25% percentile and smallest investor as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980 ~ 2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friends, have you found that these investors who ultimately performed better than Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage at all! Take the best performing (blue) as an example. Before 2005, its performance had been worse than Buffett for nearly 25 years. It caught up with and surpassed Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have long been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in the actual situation. First of all, the independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term unchanged investment, regardless of personal life, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even though this model has all kinds of flaws, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Stand up and act yourself, have a clear understanding of the circle of competence</p><p>Value investing, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money whose value recovers after the oversold created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, whether it is because the company really has poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging part of value investing. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and investment behavior against human nature.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors overly pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, causing these \"beautiful\" stocks to be overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So, in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high-valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low-valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, regardless of his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, his and Munger's behavioral and psychological superiority, and their accumulated practice over time are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human natural cognitive biases (Cognitive Bias) and emotional biases (Emotional Bias). Buffett and Munger's decision-making methods, cognitive abilities, or emotional discipline are all complementary to Buffett's advantages and performance. In particular, Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, has an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural charismatic characteristics, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The weird and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both the above factors and the investment framework Buffett is good at can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely, overestimation (Over Estimation), overplacement (Over Placement) and overprecision (Over Precision).</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to wrong financial and other decisions for a long time and consistently.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key point is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the prejudice of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often called \"the root of all prejudice\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all prejudices, and are very cautious about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the impact of overconfidence on decision-making. adverse effects. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess the scope of their knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being excellent.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of more than 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times. Their performance is far better than that of the S&P 500 index, which has performed well. Part of Buffett's income is due to the dividends of the market environment, but more due to his personal stock selection strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to defeat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger's personal charm and character, as well as his great philosophical system, are the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical performance.</p><p>However, even if it is a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger, its performance has significantly underperformed the market from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market at every moment, then countless investors will inevitably influx in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. It is precisely the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market efficiency hypothesis untenable and brings opportunities for firm value investors to outperform the market in the long term.</p><p>However, value investing is also a double-edged sword for the natural high tracking error of the market. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing unable to tolerate tracking errors. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from the noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our beliefs in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long period of value investment. cycle.</p><p>In this way, encourage each other.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he is 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"Physically, I have no value, only a little residual value left. It's really useless, but it doesn't prevent me from working, feeling happy or thinking. I don't feel that my enjoyment and love of life have decreased in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I am in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name always has a strong legendary color, from American Express to Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its concept of \"value investment\" has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is also at the top of the contempt chain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School and learned from Benjamin Graham, who is known as the \"father of value investors\". Under Graham's door, Buffett is like a duck to water.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. Since then, the nature of Berkshire's business has changed. It is no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as an operating platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity, and creating investment myths.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (that is, more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 Index's growth rate was 15,019%. This is only the increase in book value, and Berkshire's intrinsic value has grown much more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source : WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after 53 years of uncanny operation by Buffett, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and precise. The victory of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name of a blue-chip printing company (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy has grown slowly, and the increase in unit price has led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is much more valuable than its book value. It is a brand enterprise, and its products can be sold at a price higher than the production cost, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's working capital. After paying the corporate profit tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive enterprises.</p><p>See-Poetry has brought many new sources of cash to Berkshire, which is just like the description of Berkshire in the Bible: \"plump, fertile and fertile\".</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett once again bought a large amount of GEICO shares, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, with a total cost of US $47.14 million. In the 15 years after 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's equity share had increased to 50% and spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% shares. After owning all the equity, GEICO continues to contribute free insurance float to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep relationship with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about 4 hours explaining the operating model of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO The core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly anticipated commercial castle, then the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of the contradiction between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its share price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of Coca-Cola shares. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, with a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars. The total dividends received during the period were approximately 6 billion US dollars.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks Coke every day and has been living this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live one more year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and chocolate every day can make me happier but lose my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an excellent company, and the management is concerned about the return on capital and tangible cash earnings of shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has a long history of continuity, and the outlook for the next few decades is also clear. Coca-Cola is classified as an \"eternal holding\" by Buffett.</p><p>Other classic cases scattered in Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started buying in 1973, had an equity swap in 2014, with an annualized return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who bought it in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to buy in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>All PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were sold from July to October 2007, with pre-tax investment income of approximately US $3.55 billion;</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>One by one, the vivid cases not only form outstanding investment performance, but also contain changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent enterprise learner, who can quickly and accurately distinguish the complex keys of a company. He can veto an investment in two minutes and make major investment decisions in two days of analysis. He is always ready. As he says in the company's annual report, \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about the trend of the short-term stock market, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of the company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that in his 40-year career, the results of 12 investment decisions have made him unique.</p><p><b>Buffett is not outdated, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, your excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone is competing to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there has been an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concluded that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because Berkshire The ultra-low capital cost of insurance business implies 1.4 ~ 1.6 times leverage in returns.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies to analyze Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a strong advocate of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the part of quantitative traditional finance) on the one hand, and from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the part of behavioral finance), and on the other hand, there is indeed some luck. As the saying goes, the right place and the right time are harmonious, and no one can be less.</p><p>So, what did he do right to achieve such investment achievements? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or self-defense?<b>This time, let's talk about investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding of analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the small and insignificant market value factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factor, and introduced AQR's quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta), forming a new FF five-factor model to more accurately divide the contribution of factors. The assumptions and premises of the specific model will not be repeated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The attribution analysis of Berkshire's excess returns is split above. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2%. In other words, Buffett can achieve such achievements, half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune), and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market capitalization has a negative contribution. It cannot be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here. It may also be that there are discussions on the choice of time periods or indicators. Looking at the new FF5 model that we have improved, we can find that most of the excess returns that have not been explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them is explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the low financing cost, the use of high leverage, the purchase of safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and the long-term holding. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify profits. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the perspective of financing, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He uses debt to drive investment and invests to expand the debt cycle model.</p><p>To sum up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. One third of his success depends on the sky (betting on the luck of the times and the country), and most of it depends on people (his personal investment ability is too excellent).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people all over the world, and there is only a Buffett? Is it just luck? Maybe all the good luck of the whole world is concentrated on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? Still in the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first made a simple CAPM regression analysis on Berkshire's rate of return, and the results were as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where the beta is about 0.65, the cross-sectional alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's null hypothesis that the excess return is 0. Furthermore, from the rate of return, we can see that the excess annualized rate of return obtained by the simple CAPM model has reached 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of yield minus the variance of market yield) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their annual excess returns obey the normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fitting times, and the results are as shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, only 14 of the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck) finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line has been almost always at the top of the entire random fitting part throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained its \"super god\" performance for a long time and has been stable within the top 0.2% range. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still think that they don't agree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the rate of return of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose to look more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Divide 14 investors who perform better than Buffett into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and take the largest, 75% percentile, 25% percentile and smallest investor as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980 ~ 2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friends, have you found that these investors who ultimately performed better than Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage at all! Take the best performing (blue) as an example. Before 2005, its performance had been worse than Buffett for nearly 25 years. It caught up with and surpassed Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have long been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in the actual situation. First of all, the independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term unchanged investment, regardless of personal life, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even though this model has all kinds of flaws, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Stand up and act yourself, have a clear understanding of the circle of competence</p><p>Value investing, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money whose value recovers after the oversold created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, whether it is because the company really has poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging part of value investing. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and investment behavior against human nature.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors overly pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, causing these \"beautiful\" stocks to be overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So, in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high-valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low-valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, regardless of his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, his and Munger's behavioral and psychological superiority, and their accumulated practice over time are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human natural cognitive biases (Cognitive Bias) and emotional biases (Emotional Bias). Buffett and Munger's decision-making methods, cognitive abilities, or emotional discipline are all complementary to Buffett's advantages and performance. In particular, Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, has an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural charismatic characteristics, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The weird and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both the above factors and the investment framework Buffett is good at can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely, overestimation (Over Estimation), overplacement (Over Placement) and overprecision (Over Precision).</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to wrong financial and other decisions for a long time and consistently.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key point is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the prejudice of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often called \"the root of all prejudice\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all prejudices, and are very cautious about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the impact of overconfidence on decision-making. adverse effects. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess the scope of their knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being excellent.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of more than 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times. Their performance is far better than that of the S&P 500 index, which has performed well. Part of Buffett's income is due to the dividends of the market environment, but more due to his personal stock selection strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to defeat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger's personal charm and character, as well as his great philosophical system, are the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical performance.</p><p>However, even if it is a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger, its performance has significantly underperformed the market from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market at every moment, then countless investors will inevitably influx in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. It is precisely the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market efficiency hypothesis untenable and brings opportunities for firm value investors to outperform the market in the long term.</p><p>However, value investing is also a double-edged sword for the natural high tracking error of the market. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing unable to tolerate tracking errors. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from the noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our beliefs in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long period of value investment. cycle.</p><p>In this way, encourage each other.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835733147,"gmtCreate":1629743259689,"gmtModify":1676530118050,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835733147","repostId":"2161772849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161772849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629740700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161772849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 01:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772849","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800...","content":"<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the US market, and refreshed as low as 93.01 on a new day, due to profit-taking caused by market doubts about the direction of US monetary policy; The fall of the US dollar and the worries caused by the raging COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. U.S. WTI crude oil rose sharply by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow rising 300 points or 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.6%. As COVID-19 pandemic continues to counterattack, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>The data released by the United States during the day is mixed: the United States in August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of the service PMI recorded 55.2, the lowest since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 61.2 in August from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>Agency commentary said that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August on the back of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising new crown cases. The pullback in PMIs this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions have hit companies already struggling to meet demand. Service suppliers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and securing supply.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the U.S. existing home sales data in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to agency comments, existing home sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July, as house prices fell from the previous month's record level due to moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales from last year's 14-year high may be over.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which rose more than 0.5%.</p><p>The US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. It hit a high of 93.73 last Friday, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that if the virus hurts the economy, he may reconsider whether it is necessary to start tapering bond purchases earlier. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say that tapering should be made as soon as possible, and his view showed that the hawks of the Fed wavered before the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he could adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to rise, so the Fed's dovish comments weighed on the dollar as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" a Japanese bank trader said.</p><p>Some analysts believe further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by year-end.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timeline for the Federal Reserve to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Fed had originally decided to hold its meetings in a mixture of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given rising virus risks.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his speech for clues on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a note that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" which \"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added: \"Given the deterioration of recent data releases and the pandemic situation, some of the risks we see Powell focusing on are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases.\" \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering in December, although the FOMC favors a November announcement ahead of its July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a report, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the dollar, given the rising risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecast to show that the depreciation of the dollar is reduced.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted as the dollar retreated and worries lingered that the intensification of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia could hinder global economic growth.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, setting a new daily high of $1,806.37, an increase of $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from a nine-and-a-half-month high last week, sending gold prices lower for other currency holders.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting the impact of higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the near term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Gold prices will continue to move \"moderately higher\" on a weakening dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets, analysts said in a research note.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be a general safe-haven event, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil jumped, ending its worst seven-day losing streak for crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders saw the recent sell-off as overdone.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79 a barrel, an increase of 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% to hit an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI crude oil futures 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rise marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38 a barrel on Monday, after the week when oil prices hit their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new Chinese cases certainly provides a tailwind as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, bringing a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"Moreover, the dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing broad support to commodity markets.\"</p><p>Oil prices fell after fears of a slowdown in demand amid the spread of the Delta variant in Novel Coronavirus, leading to new lockdowns in countries such as Japanese and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and increased production by U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>\"We view price weakness as excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data,\" Commerzbank analysts noted.</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading Monday after a volatile week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on a key event that could hint at a tapering of stimulus package by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones gained 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to pull back monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note: \"We suspect that upcoming changes in monetary policy, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases are challenging investor confidence.\"</p><p>Major indexes are set to modest gains in August. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of private wealth management, said, \"August has historically been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in cases in novel coronavirus pneumonia and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>US Stock Market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing Home Sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 01:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the US market, and refreshed as low as 93.01 on a new day, due to profit-taking caused by market doubts about the direction of US monetary policy; The fall of the US dollar and the worries caused by the raging COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. U.S. WTI crude oil rose sharply by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow rising 300 points or 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.6%. As COVID-19 pandemic continues to counterattack, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>The data released by the United States during the day is mixed: the United States in August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of the service PMI recorded 55.2, the lowest since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 61.2 in August from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>Agency commentary said that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August on the back of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising new crown cases. The pullback in PMIs this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions have hit companies already struggling to meet demand. Service suppliers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and securing supply.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the U.S. existing home sales data in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to agency comments, existing home sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July, as house prices fell from the previous month's record level due to moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales from last year's 14-year high may be over.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which rose more than 0.5%.</p><p>The US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. It hit a high of 93.73 last Friday, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that if the virus hurts the economy, he may reconsider whether it is necessary to start tapering bond purchases earlier. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say that tapering should be made as soon as possible, and his view showed that the hawks of the Fed wavered before the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he could adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to rise, so the Fed's dovish comments weighed on the dollar as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" a Japanese bank trader said.</p><p>Some analysts believe further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by year-end.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timeline for the Federal Reserve to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Fed had originally decided to hold its meetings in a mixture of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given rising virus risks.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his speech for clues on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a note that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" which \"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added: \"Given the deterioration of recent data releases and the pandemic situation, some of the risks we see Powell focusing on are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases.\" \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering in December, although the FOMC favors a November announcement ahead of its July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a report, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the dollar, given the rising risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecast to show that the depreciation of the dollar is reduced.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted as the dollar retreated and worries lingered that the intensification of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia could hinder global economic growth.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, setting a new daily high of $1,806.37, an increase of $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from a nine-and-a-half-month high last week, sending gold prices lower for other currency holders.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting the impact of higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the near term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Gold prices will continue to move \"moderately higher\" on a weakening dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets, analysts said in a research note.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be a general safe-haven event, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil jumped, ending its worst seven-day losing streak for crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders saw the recent sell-off as overdone.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79 a barrel, an increase of 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% to hit an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI crude oil futures 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rise marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38 a barrel on Monday, after the week when oil prices hit their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new Chinese cases certainly provides a tailwind as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, bringing a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"Moreover, the dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing broad support to commodity markets.\"</p><p>Oil prices fell after fears of a slowdown in demand amid the spread of the Delta variant in Novel Coronavirus, leading to new lockdowns in countries such as Japanese and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and increased production by U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>\"We view price weakness as excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data,\" Commerzbank analysts noted.</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading Monday after a volatile week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on a key event that could hint at a tapering of stimulus package by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones gained 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to pull back monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note: \"We suspect that upcoming changes in monetary policy, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases are challenging investor confidence.\"</p><p>Major indexes are set to modest gains in August. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of private wealth management, said, \"August has historically been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in cases in novel coronavirus pneumonia and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>US Stock Market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing Home Sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062913689736.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772849","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800美元大关，较日低拉升30美元；原油市场则受到美元走软以及中国零新增确诊病例的提振，美国WTI原油大幅上涨6%；美股三大股指齐涨，其中道指上涨300点或0.8%，纳指则上涨1.6%。在新冠疫情持续反扑之际，美联储将于本周稍晚在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔的经济展望演讲和缩减量化宽松的时间等备受关注。美国日内公布的数据良莠不齐：美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值录得55.2，创去年12月以来新低。 美国8月份制造业PMI初值从7月份的63.4降至61.2。机构评论称，美国企业活动继续放缓，在原材料短缺、劳动力短缺和新冠病例增加的背景下，8月份的增长放缓至八个月低点。本月PMI的回落凸显出供应链中断对已经难以满足需求的企业的打击程度。服务供应商和制造商继续面临吸引工人和获得供应的挑战。不过随后公布的另一项数据表现强劲：美国7月成屋销售数据为599万户，预期581万户，前值修正为587万户。机构点评称，美国7月成屋销售连续第二个月增加，因库存温和改善，房价较前月纪录水准回落。销售额的增长表明，从去年的14年高点来看，今年的销售额下降趋势可能已经结束。美元周一全线下跌，上周录得逾两个月来最大单周升幅，因对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐。澳元、挪威克朗和加元等风险较高的货币是美元走软的主要受益者，这些货币的涨幅均超过了0.5%。美元指数上周触及九个月高点，较5月低点上涨近5%，因投资者进一步押注美联储将先于欧洲和日本开始缩减疫情时期的刺激政策。美市盘中，衡量美元兑其他主要货币表现的美元指数下跌近0.5%，至93.01，上周五兴触及93.73高点，为自去年11月初以来的最高水平。（美元指数30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）但达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五表示，如果病毒损害经济，他可能会重新考虑是否有必要提前开始缩减购债规模。卡普兰是知名鹰派人士。卡普兰是第一个表示应该尽早缩债的美联储官员，其看法表明在杰克逊霍尔会议召开前，美联储鹰派有所动摇。“卡普兰表示，如果德尔塔变种病例持续增加，他可能调整对资产购买的看法，因此美联储的鸽派言论打压美元，因对德尔塔的担忧升温对美元不利，”一家日本银行的交易员称。一些分析师认为，该变体的进一步扩散可能会破坏美联储在年底前缩减其大流行时期刺激计划的计划。交易员正急切地等待杰克逊霍尔研讨会，以寻找美联储缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买计划时间表的线索。该活动在周四和周五进行。美联储原本决定以虚拟和现场混合的方式举行会议，但鉴于病毒风险不断上升，上周五决定全部采用虚拟方式。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会议上讨论经济前景，交易商将仔细分析他的讲话，以寻求有关政策收紧时机和步伐的线索。鲍威尔迄今一直在淡化德尔塔事件的影响。野村证券分析师Amemiya在一份报告中称，鲍威尔主席的演讲将以“经济展望”为题，“可能暗示他的演讲可能更注重短期”。Amemiya补充说:“鉴于最近公布的数据的恶化和大流行形势，我们看到鲍威尔关注的一些风险是，由于最新的新冠病例激增，不确定性增加。”“至少，我们认为美联储官员最近的言论支持了我们的观点，即美联储将在12月宣布缩减购债规模，尽管FOMC倾向于在7月会议之前在11月宣布。”三菱日联金融集团策略师在一份报告中称，“风险规避将支撑美元。尽管谨慎的美联储应缩小美元的涨幅，但鉴于新冠肺炎风险上升，我们需要对年底外汇预测进行一些调整，以显示美元贬值幅度减小。”随着美元回落，市场对新冠肺炎疫情加剧可能阻碍全球经济增长的担忧挥之不去，金价受到提振上涨。日内稍早，现货金冲破1800美元大关，刷新日高至1806.37美元，较日低拉升30美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）美元指数下跌0.3%，从上周九个半月的高点回落，令其他货币持有者的黄金价格下跌。“美元小幅走软，抵消了收益率上升的影响，并扶助金价，”盛宝银行分析师Ole Hansen表示。“短期内，我们预计不会有太大的变化，因为我们正在等待杰克逊霍尔得到一个迹象，即美联储是否正走向缩减规模，或者最新的病毒爆发是否已经给这些预期踩了刹车。”高盛分析师在一份研究报告中表示，由于美元走弱和新兴市场需求复苏，金价将继续“温和走高”。“但黄金若要大幅走高，就必须出现普遍的避险事件，例如通胀担忧卷土重来，这将引发对防御性通胀对冲的需求，”他们表示。油价跳涨，结束了自2019年以来原油价格最糟糕的连续7天下跌，原因是美元回落，交易员认为近期的抛售过度。美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货价格现上涨3.65美元，交投于65.79美元/桶，涨幅5.87%。当天早些时候，油价一度上涨逾6%，触及66.00美元/桶的盘中高点，创下去年11月以来的最佳单日涨幅。（WTI原油期货30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）这一大幅上涨标志着该合约从上周下跌近9%的情况开始好转，这是自2020年10月以来最差的一周表现，也是三周来第二次出现负增长。WTI原油上周五收于5月20日以来的最低水平。周一，国际基准布伦特原油价格上涨了5%，至68.38美元/桶，涨幅为3.20美元，此前一周油价创下了自2020年10月以来的最差水平。蓝线期货分析师指出:“中国零新增病例的消息无疑提供了一股顺风，因为它在新冠疫情隧道的尽头增添了一丝曙光，给需求格局带来了一丝新鲜空气。”“此外，美元已从近期高点回落，为大宗商品市场提供了广泛支撑。”此前，随着新冠病毒德尔塔变种的传播，人们担心需求会放缓，导致日本和新西兰等国实施新一轮封锁，油价随之下跌。此外，作为全球最大原油进口国的中国疲弱的经济数据也给油价带来了压力。美国最新库存报告还显示，汽油库存增加，美国生产商的产量也有所增加。但一些华尔街公司表示，抛售看起来有些过头了。德国商业银行分析师指出:“我们认为价格疲软过度，并认为这更多地与市场参与者的心理有关，而不是与基本面数据的恶化有关。”美国股市周一早盘走高，此前美国股市经历了动荡的一周，投资者关注美联储可能暗示缩减刺激计划的关键事件。道琼斯指数上涨300点，涨幅0.8%。标准普尔500指数上涨1.0%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%。（图源：CNBC）由于投资者越来越担心美联储可能撤出货币刺激措施的举动可能会减缓经济复苏，主要股指在经历了一周的下跌后开始回升。道指上周下跌1.1%，标准普尔500指数下跌近0.6%，结束了连续两周的上涨势头。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌0.7%。Piper Sandler技术市场策略师Craig Johnson在一份报告中表示:“我们怀疑，即将到来的货币政策变化、增长与价值的转变以及新冠肺炎病例的上升轨迹，正在挑战投资者的信心。”8月份主要股指将小幅上涨。本月迄今，标准普尔500指数上涨了1.1%，而道指上涨了0.5%，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.3%。瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Rod von Lipsey称，“8月历来是市场波动较大的月份，今年也不例外，投资者目前忧心重重。”“新冠肺炎病例的上升和阿富汗的螺旋式下降正在制造一场信心危机，而此时许多投资者正在度假。”\n\n\n\n\n\n 美元\n \n\n\n\n 黄金\n \n\n\n\n 美国股市\n \n\n\n\n 原油\n \n\n\n\n 美联储\n \n\n\n\n 鲍威尔\n \n\n\n\n 成屋销售\n \n\n\n\n 美国PMI\n \n\n\n\n\n\n分享","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899434735,"gmtCreate":1628209894027,"gmtModify":1703503135627,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" Good","listText":" Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899434735","repostId":"1186213069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025616,"gmtCreate":1627826287135,"gmtModify":1703496322391,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025616","repostId":"2156169561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025843,"gmtCreate":1627826259682,"gmtModify":1703496322227,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025843","repostId":"1170169817","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170169817","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627819590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170169817?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 20:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170169817","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持","content":"<p>On August 1, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK $3.25 billion and HK $3.20 per share. Among them, Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of the announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-01 20:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 1, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK $3.25 billion and HK $3.20 per share. Among them, Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of the announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"00136":"中国儒意","03333":"中国恒大"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170169817","content_text":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约16.90%；而中国恒大持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约37.55%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00136":0.9,"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}