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TanTH
TanTH
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2022-03-15
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The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and the price of U.S. bonds "swings wildly" between rebound and plunge
全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性,令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战,而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪
The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and the price of U.S. bonds "swings wildly" between rebound and plunge
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TanTH
TanTH
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2022-01-24
$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$
😭😢😅😂
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TanTH
TanTH
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2022-01-06
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
2022 discount
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-09-02
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Pinduoduo rose nearly 9% as popular Chinese stocks collectively pulled up in intraday sessions
周三,热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿,拼多多涨近9%,爱奇艺涨超8%,哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%,阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。
Pinduoduo rose nearly 9% as popular Chinese stocks collectively pulled up in intraday sessions
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-31
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XPeng Automobile: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, up 569.3% year-on-year
上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元,去年同期亏损20.76亿元。
XPeng Automobile: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, up 569.3% year-on-year
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-31
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91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar
这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。
91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-24
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A carnival feast for the bulls! Fed in a dilemma? Dollar High Platform Diving Financial Market Played "Rising Chorus"
FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中,美元指数持续走低,并刷新日低至93.01,因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐;美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金,现货黄金终于突破1800...
A carnival feast for the bulls! Fed in a dilemma? Dollar High Platform Diving Financial Market Played "Rising Chorus"
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-06
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Sorry, this post has been deleted
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-01
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TanTH
TanTH
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2021-08-01
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China Evergrande: Sell 11% equity of Hengteng Network for HK$3.25 billion
8月1日,恒腾网络在港交所公告称,中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权,总代价为32.5亿港元,每股3.20港元。其中,买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司,其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期,买方一持
China Evergrande: Sell 11% equity of Hengteng Network for HK$3.25 billion
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","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032389283","repostId":"1178901868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178901868","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯!第一时间把握全球政策动向,先人一步了解主流资金流向,监测主力行踪,解读公司公告,追踪活跃个股,让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1647270835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178901868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and the price of U.S. bonds \"swings wildly\" between rebound and plunge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性,令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战,而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent volatility of the Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, faces a huge challenge for traders trying to bet on commodity price shocks triggered by tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to stimulate safe-haven demand.<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) are raising fears of something like \"1970s-style stagflation\".</b></p><p>Since Russia's Ukrainian deployment, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has been declining. Safe-haven investors have bought this asset, which is generally considered to be one of the safest, and at the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. debt to avoid missing the buying point when the price climbs in the future.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As the worry that the inflation rate had not peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, the safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the yield of two-year U.S. bonds soared to the highest point in two years. As the consumer price index (CPI) soars sharply and may still not peak, it shows that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of starting a rate hike cycle on Wednesday EST.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. bond has been sold off sharply again, and the yield once reached 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9th, the intraday yield of 10-year U.S. bonds was once as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10th, the intraday yield was once as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. A similar plot was staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"entangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has brought a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. debt to make a profit, although everyone has a lot of money on hand at present, those who bet wrong will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reason to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched indicator of implied price volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond to its highest level since the early crash of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, or after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losses from wrong bets, deleveraging and liquidating positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. debt (more than 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. debt will perform better with the dim growth prospects of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition a period of slower economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O'Brien, said: \"<b>There's no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that long-term investors have not seized the opportunity presented by the spread amid near-zero interest rates over the past two years.</p><p><b>Volatility in U.S. Treasury Bond Market Surges</b></p><p>This volatility reflects broader market volatility, as investors are assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, resulting in violent volatility in the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets at the same time. This opens up opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O'Donnell said the movement in the U.S. Treasury Bond market since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the biggest value-at-risk (VAR) shock for \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said Citi's measurement showed that volumes in the US Treasury Bond market had fallen from higher levels. \"At the time, there was an opinion that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of deals.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some usually hotter trades have recently begun to shrink sharply in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will have multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said that the decline in trading volume means that the market is facing uncertainty in the short term, which is obviously reflected in the sharp increase in potential volatility, and pointed out that the implied volatility on the whole yield curve has increased sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that last Tuesday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, touched 140.03 points, the highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the past 10 years, losing value equal to the entire interest payment of the past year in 5 days. The U.S. Treasury Bond index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession Expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the surge in commodity prices has made the market's expectation of a slowdown in economic growth stronger and stronger. The market is worried that the economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise, and some traders even think that \"signs of stagflation\" are very obvious.<b>This has further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand\"</b>, i.e. betting that short-end yields will rise more sharply than long-end yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the spread between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest spread since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Still, as traders try to gauge whether they have the balls to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focused on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that the capital flows of some pension and insurance companies are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. bonds. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Molly Schwartz, fund manager at Western Asset, said the firm has begun shifting one of its major funds more toward longer-end bonds. With nearly $500 billion in assets under management at the end of last year, Schwartz said: \"We're moving some front-end exposure above the yield curve.\"</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt base is popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund Research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>He mentioned the inflows of related products of large financial institutions such as Pacific Investment Management Company and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"From historical data, investors have been willing to believe that fund managers of actively managed debt funds can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risk,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, this year's flows provide some protection against the expectation of higher interest rates compared with last year, when fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For those rate-exposed investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept them low, rising yields may provide an opportunity to return to the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We are holding positions for a short time and trying to get back to neutral levels, so the 2% level on any asset over a 10-year term looks to us as reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and the price of U.S. bonds \"swings wildly\" between rebound and plunge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent volatility of the Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, faces a huge challenge for traders trying to bet on commodity price shocks triggered by tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to stimulate safe-haven demand.<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) are raising fears of something like \"1970s-style stagflation\".</b></p><p>Since Russia's Ukrainian deployment, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has been declining. Safe-haven investors have bought this asset, which is generally considered to be one of the safest, and at the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. debt to avoid missing the buying point when the price climbs in the future.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As the worry that the inflation rate had not peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, the safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the yield of two-year U.S. bonds soared to the highest point in two years. As the consumer price index (CPI) soars sharply and may still not peak, it shows that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of starting a rate hike cycle on Wednesday EST.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. bond has been sold off sharply again, and the yield once reached 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9th, the intraday yield of 10-year U.S. bonds was once as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10th, the intraday yield was once as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. A similar plot was staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"entangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has brought a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. debt to make a profit, although everyone has a lot of money on hand at present, those who bet wrong will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reason to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched indicator of implied price volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond to its highest level since the early crash of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, or after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losses from wrong bets, deleveraging and liquidating positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. debt (more than 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. debt will perform better with the dim growth prospects of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition a period of slower economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O'Brien, said: \"<b>There's no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that long-term investors have not seized the opportunity presented by the spread amid near-zero interest rates over the past two years.</p><p><b>Volatility in U.S. Treasury Bond Market Surges</b></p><p>This volatility reflects broader market volatility, as investors are assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, resulting in violent volatility in the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets at the same time. This opens up opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O'Donnell said the movement in the U.S. Treasury Bond market since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the biggest value-at-risk (VAR) shock for \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said Citi's measurement showed that volumes in the US Treasury Bond market had fallen from higher levels. \"At the time, there was an opinion that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of deals.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some usually hotter trades have recently begun to shrink sharply in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will have multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said that the decline in trading volume means that the market is facing uncertainty in the short term, which is obviously reflected in the sharp increase in potential volatility, and pointed out that the implied volatility on the whole yield curve has increased sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that last Tuesday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, touched 140.03 points, the highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the past 10 years, losing value equal to the entire interest payment of the past year in 5 days. The U.S. Treasury Bond index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession Expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the surge in commodity prices has made the market's expectation of a slowdown in economic growth stronger and stronger. The market is worried that the economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise, and some traders even think that \"signs of stagflation\" are very obvious.<b>This has further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand\"</b>, i.e. betting that short-end yields will rise more sharply than long-end yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the spread between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest spread since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Still, as traders try to gauge whether they have the balls to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focused on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that the capital flows of some pension and insurance companies are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. bonds. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Molly Schwartz, fund manager at Western Asset, said the firm has begun shifting one of its major funds more toward longer-end bonds. With nearly $500 billion in assets under management at the end of last year, Schwartz said: \"We're moving some front-end exposure above the yield curve.\"</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt base is popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund Research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>He mentioned the inflows of related products of large financial institutions such as Pacific Investment Management Company and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"From historical data, investors have been willing to believe that fund managers of actively managed debt funds can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risk,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, this year's flows provide some protection against the expectation of higher interest rates compared with last year, when fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For those rate-exposed investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept them low, rising yields may provide an opportunity to return to the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We are holding positions for a short time and trying to get back to neutral levels, so the 2% level on any asset over a 10-year term looks to us as reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性,令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战,而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后,美国国债价格大幅上涨,收益率不断下滑,避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一,同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债,以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到,在上周,情形似乎出现了反转,随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点,美债避险买盘逐渐退场,两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶,显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天,10年期美债再次被大幅抛售,收益率一度达到2.10%,创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日,10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%,最后以1.958%高点收盘,在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%,最后以2.021%高点收盘,在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情,究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后,尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金,但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中,做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘,或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况,一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事,以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注,认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡,长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时,资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金,以过渡经济增长放缓时期,有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示:“毫无疑问,这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出,在过去两年接近零利率的情况下,长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动,因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响,导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会,但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示,自俄乌冲突升级以来,美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示,花旗的衡量指标显示,美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降,“当时有一种观点认为,这是一个不错的获利机会,而现在有一种情绪,认为我们应该脚踏实地,减少交易规模。”值得注意的是,在上周,美国银行业曾指出,在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下,一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示,交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性,而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上,并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出,在上周二,追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点,为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周,在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%,超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来,大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈,市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓,甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”,即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡,短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日,两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点,这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过,在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际,长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示,部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权,如果明年美国经济大幅放缓,收益率从当前水平回落,这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示,该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底,该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产,Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为,收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处,他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示,这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣,这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险,并专注于短端美债,他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看,投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是,与去年相比,今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间,而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说,收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短,并试图回到中性水平,因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007776016,"gmtCreate":1643025925612,"gmtModify":1676533765876,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","text":"$Exela Technologies, 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","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816425366","repostId":"1170877267","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170877267","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630506252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170877267?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pinduoduo rose nearly 9% as popular Chinese stocks collectively pulled up in intraday sessions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170877267","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三,热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿,拼多多涨近9%,爱奇艺涨超8%,哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%,阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese stocks collectively rose in intraday sessions. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pinduoduo rose nearly 9% as popular Chinese stocks collectively pulled up in intraday sessions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPinduoduo rose nearly 9% as popular Chinese stocks collectively pulled up in intraday sessions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese stocks collectively rose in intraday sessions. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170877267","content_text":"周三,热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿,拼多多涨近9%,爱奇艺涨超8%,哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%,阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818497606,"gmtCreate":1630423932105,"gmtModify":1676530300912,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818497606","repostId":"1169845430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169845430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630412757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169845430?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 20:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng Automobile: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, up 569.3% year-on-year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169845430","media":"新浪科技","summary":"上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元,去年同期亏损20.76亿元。","content":"<p>On the evening of August 31st, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It was announced today that the company's total revenue in the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%; Net loss for the first half of the year was RMB1,981 million, compared with a loss of RMB2,076 million for the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of the results for the first half of 2020:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 amounted to 30,738 units, representing an increase of 459% from 5,499 units for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began delivering the P7 in bulk at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total number of P7s delivered in the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% can support XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Motors' physical sales and service network comprised 200 stores and 64 service centers covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automotive Brand Supercharger Stations expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB6,712.2 million (US$1,039.6 million), representing an increase of 569.3% from RMB1,002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, revenue from automobile sales was RMB6,394.7 million (US$990.4 million), representing an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Automobile gross profit margin, being the percentage of automobile sales gross profit as a percentage of automobile sales revenue, was 10.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million), as compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and fair value changes in derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, non-GAAP net loss was RMB1792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to RMB2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights and the increase in redemption value in preferred shares, the non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,792.7 million (US$277.7 million), compared to RMB1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per ADS for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were both RMB2.49 (US$0.39), while basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share were both RMB1.25 (US$0.19).</p><p>Both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were RMB2.26 (US$0.35), compared to both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US$0.17). Each ADS represents two shares of Class A common stock.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits amounted to RMB32,871.2 million (US$5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>July 2021, XPeng Motors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles amounted to 8,040 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 228%. Among the July deliveries are 6,054 P7s (XPeng Motors' smart sports sedan) and 1,986 G3s (XPeng Motors' compact smart SUV). Year-to-date deliveries amounted to 38,778 units as of July 31, 2021, representing a 388% year-on-year increase.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Automobile: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, up 569.3% year-on-year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Automobile: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, up 569.3% year-on-year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 20:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of August 31st, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It was announced today that the company's total revenue in the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%; Net loss for the first half of the year was RMB1,981 million, compared with a loss of RMB2,076 million for the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of the results for the first half of 2020:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 amounted to 30,738 units, representing an increase of 459% from 5,499 units for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began delivering the P7 in bulk at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total number of P7s delivered in the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% can support XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Motors' physical sales and service network comprised 200 stores and 64 service centers covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automotive Brand Supercharger Stations expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB6,712.2 million (US$1,039.6 million), representing an increase of 569.3% from RMB1,002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, revenue from automobile sales was RMB6,394.7 million (US$990.4 million), representing an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Automobile gross profit margin, being the percentage of automobile sales gross profit as a percentage of automobile sales revenue, was 10.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million), as compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and fair value changes in derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, non-GAAP net loss was RMB1792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to RMB2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights and the increase in redemption value in preferred shares, the non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,792.7 million (US$277.7 million), compared to RMB1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per ADS for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were both RMB2.49 (US$0.39), while basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share were both RMB1.25 (US$0.19).</p><p>Both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were RMB2.26 (US$0.35), compared to both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US$0.17). Each ADS represents two shares of Class A common stock.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits amounted to RMB32,871.2 million (US$5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>July 2021, XPeng Motors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles amounted to 8,040 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 228%. Among the July deliveries are 6,054 P7s (XPeng Motors' smart sports sedan) and 1,986 G3s (XPeng Motors' compact smart SUV). Year-to-date deliveries amounted to 38,778 units as of July 31, 2021, representing a 388% year-on-year increase.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401f7adefb705cb1d679bb39b97c03e1","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169845430","content_text":"北京时间8月31日晚间消息,小鹏汽车今日发布公告称,该公司上半年总收入为人民币67.12亿元,同比上升569.3%;上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元,去年同期亏损20.76亿元。\n202年上半年业绩摘要:\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车交付量为30,738辆,较2020年6月30日止六个月的5,499辆上升459%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月P7交付量为19,496辆。小鹏汽车于2020年6月底开始批量交付P7。\n在截至2021年6月30日止六个月已交付的P7总量中,97%可支持XPILOT 2.5或XPILOT3.0。\n截至2021年6月30日,小鹏汽车的实体销售和服务网络包括200间门店和64个服务中心,覆盖74个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日,小鹏汽车品牌超级充电站扩展至231座,覆盖65个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月,总收入为人民币67.122亿元(10.396亿美元),较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币10.029亿元上升569.3%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月,汽车销售收入 为人民币63.947亿 元(9.904亿美元),较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币9.133亿元上升600.2%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月毛利率为11.6%,相较而言,截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负3.6%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车毛利率(即汽车销售毛利润占汽车销售收入的百分比)为10.6%,相较而言,截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负5.5%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月净亏损为人民币19.811亿元(3.068亿美元),相较而言,截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币7.958亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支和与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动外,截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则净亏损为人民币1,7.927亿元(2.777亿美元),相较而言,截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币1,4.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币19.811亿元(306.8百万美元),相较而言,截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币20.765亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支、与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动以及优先股赎回价值的增加外,截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币17.927亿元(2.777亿美元),相较而言,截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币14.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.49元(0.39美元),而每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.25元(0.19美元)。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.26元(0.35美元),而非公认会计原则每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.13元(0.17美元)。每一股美国存托股代表两股A类普通股。\n截至2021年6月30日,现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期存款、短期投资及长期存款为人民币328.712亿元(50.911亿美元)。\n小鹏汽车7月的交付量:\n2021年7月,小鹏汽车智能电动汽车的总交付量达8,040辆,按年增长228%。 7月的交付中包括6,054辆P7(小鹏汽车的智能运动型轿车)和1,986辆G3(小鹏汽车的紧凑型智能SUV)。截至2021年7月31日,年初至今的交付量达38,778辆,按年增长388%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818028737,"gmtCreate":1630367097929,"gmtModify":1676530280436,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818028737","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"I have little value physically, only a little residual value left. It is really useless, but it doesn't hinder me from working, it doesn't hinder me from feeling happy, it doesn't hinder me from thinking. I don't feel any reduction in my enjoyment and love of life. In fact, in a sense, the game I'm in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The name always carries a strong legendary color, from American Express to the Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola, to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its \"value investment\" concept has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, but Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is at the top of the chain of disdain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School, where he was apprenticed by Benjamin Graham, known as the \"Father of Value Investors\". Under Graham, Buffett is at home.</p><p>Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock in 1962. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. After that, the nature of Berkshire's business changed, and it was no longer a mere spinning enterprise, but an investment entity. Buffett uses it as a business platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity stakes, creating investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), compared with 15,019% for the S&P 500. This is only the increase in book value, and the increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value is much higher than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after Buffett's 53 years of miraculous operation, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic Case: How Buffett Did It</b></p><p>Buffett is the representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and sophisticated. The success of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name Blue Chip Printing (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy grew slowly, while the net profit soared due to the increase in unit price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is worth a lot more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products are able to be sold at prices above the cost of production and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett reviewed the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's operating capital. After paying the tax on corporate profits, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>See's had brought Berkshire many new sources of cash, and for Berkshire it was as the Bible described it: \"plump and fertile and fertile.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett made another big purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million of its shares, or 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. In the 15 years since 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire had increased its stake to 50 percent and spent $2.3 billion on the remaining 50 percent. After owning the entire equity, GEICO constantly contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the operation mode of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded commercial castle, the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of a conflict between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was depressed. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of shares of Coca-Cola. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, at a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than $20 billion, and the total dividends received during the period are about $6 billion.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said he drank Coke every day and had been using that lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and eating chocolate every day can make me happier but have to shorten my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company, and management cares about capital returns and tangible cash gains for shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long historical sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report are:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started to buy in 1973, swapped its shares in 2014, with an annualized rate of return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzer, bought in 1986, had contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to be bought in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>The H shares of PetroChina bought in 2003 were all sold from July to October 2007, with a pre-tax investment income of about 3.55 billion USD;</p><p>Wait.</p><p>Each vivid case not only shines in the world with prominent investment performance, but also contains changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is a brilliant corporate learner, able to quickly and precisely identify the key to a company's complexity. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always ready, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah did not wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care how the stock market moves in the short term, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of a company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Buffett is not out of date, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, his excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone competes to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there is an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concludes that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because of the ultra-low capital cost of Berkshire's insurance business, the return implies 1.4~1.6 times leverage.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve a combination of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" In fact, I am not a firm supporter of the market effectiveness hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the quantitative traditional finance part), on the other hand, from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the behavioral finance part), and on the other hand, it does have some luck. As the saying goes, the right time, the right place and the right people, no one can be missing.</p><p>So, what exactly did he do right to achieve such an investment achievement? Is it ability, luck, or self-determination?<b>This time, let's talk from three aspects: investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French's 5-factor model for an in-depth look at analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is on top of the famous three-factor model, adding the profitability factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, according to the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and the investment factor with Small and insignificant contribution, and introduced the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) of AQR and the Beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) to form a new FF five-factor model to divide the contribution of factors more accurately. The assumptions of the specific model will not be detailed here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above splits Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess return are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns reached 80.2%. In other words, Buffett's achievement was half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune) and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market value has a negative contribution. It can't be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here, but it may also be discussed in the selection of time period or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can find that most of the excess returns that had not been explained before dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them were explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the use of high leverage, safe, high-quality and cheap stocks at low funding costs, and long-term holdings. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify earnings. However, high leverage can only explain a part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the financing perspective, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He drives investment with debt and expands the circulation mode of investment.</p><p>To sum it up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself says: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheaper prices. One third of his success depends on the heavens (gambling on the times and the luck of the country), and most of it depends on people (personal investment ability is too good).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people in the world, but there is only one Buffett? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the world's good fortune is focused on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? In the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, first, we made a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire's yield, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is about 0.65, cross-intersection alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's original hypothesis that excess returns are 0. Further, from the yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained by the simple CAPM model reaches 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of return minus the variance of market return) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's lucky component, we adopt the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, there were 10,000 completely independent investors who invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their excess returns in each year obey a normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fittings, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the graph above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative earnings, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative rate of return exceeds Buffett's stochastic fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, among the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck), only 14 finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line is almost always at the top of the entire random fitting section throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained the performance of \"super god\" for a long time and has been stable in the range of the top 0.2%. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still disagree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the yields of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose them who look more \"bull fork\".</p><p><ul><li>14 investors who outperform Buffett are divided into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and the investor with the largest, 75% quantile, 25% quantile and the smallest is taken as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980~2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>My friends have found that these investors who finally outperformed Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage! Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, it had been worse than Buffett, catching up with and outperforming Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, my friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, there are many problems in the actual situation of this model. First, independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term constant investment, without considering personal life span, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even with all the flaws in this model, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? Very rare.</p><p>Acting on oneself and having a clear understanding of the competence circle</p><p>Value investment, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money that is oversold and created by the market's excessive reaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, is it because the company does have poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market overreacts under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging parts of value investment. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and reverse investment behavior.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors excessively pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, resulting in these \"beautiful\" stocks being overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, aside from his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, he and Munger are superior in behavior and psychology, and their accumulated practice is also a necessary condition for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human innate Cognitive Bias and Emotional Bias. Buffett and Munger's decision-making style, cognitive ability or emotional discipline are complementary to Buffett's superior performance. In particular, Munger's influence on Buffett, a master of investment and philosophy, is an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's Structural Charismatic Characteristics, 2. Berkshire's Structural Decision System, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both these factors and Buffett's investment framework can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely Over Estimation, Over Placement and Over Precision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to poor financial and other decisions for a long and sustained time.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious mind and is often called \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of the root cause of all prejudices, overconfidence, and are very cautious about it, and take a series of measures to avoid or minimize the adverse impact of overconfidence on decision-making. Like Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess their scope of knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being good.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of over 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, and their performance is far better than that of the already good S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the market environment, but more thanks to his personal stock picking strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not lucky, and it is almost unrealistic to beat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charm and character, and his great philosophical system, is the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even if it is as strong as the combination of Buffett and Munger, its performance has sometimes underperformed the market significantly from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. However, it is the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market effectiveness hypothesis untrue, and brings opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market in a long period.</p><p>However, the natural high tracking error of value investment on the market is also a double-edged sword. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but unable to bear tracking errors and failing. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are infinitely despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our belief in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long cycle of value investment.</p><p>To encourage each other.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"I have little value physically, only a little residual value left. It is really useless, but it doesn't hinder me from working, it doesn't hinder me from feeling happy, it doesn't hinder me from thinking. I don't feel any reduction in my enjoyment and love of life. In fact, in a sense, the game I'm in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The name always carries a strong legendary color, from American Express to the Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola, to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its \"value investment\" concept has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, but Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is at the top of the chain of disdain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School, where he was apprenticed by Benjamin Graham, known as the \"Father of Value Investors\". Under Graham, Buffett is at home.</p><p>Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock in 1962. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. After that, the nature of Berkshire's business changed, and it was no longer a mere spinning enterprise, but an investment entity. Buffett uses it as a business platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity stakes, creating investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), compared with 15,019% for the S&P 500. This is only the increase in book value, and the increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value is much higher than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after Buffett's 53 years of miraculous operation, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic Case: How Buffett Did It</b></p><p>Buffett is the representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and sophisticated. The success of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name Blue Chip Printing (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy grew slowly, while the net profit soared due to the increase in unit price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is worth a lot more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products are able to be sold at prices above the cost of production and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett reviewed the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's operating capital. After paying the tax on corporate profits, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>See's had brought Berkshire many new sources of cash, and for Berkshire it was as the Bible described it: \"plump and fertile and fertile.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett made another big purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million of its shares, or 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. In the 15 years since 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire had increased its stake to 50 percent and spent $2.3 billion on the remaining 50 percent. After owning the entire equity, GEICO constantly contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the operation mode of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded commercial castle, the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of a conflict between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was depressed. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of shares of Coca-Cola. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, at a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than $20 billion, and the total dividends received during the period are about $6 billion.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said he drank Coke every day and had been using that lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and eating chocolate every day can make me happier but have to shorten my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company, and management cares about capital returns and tangible cash gains for shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long historical sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report are:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started to buy in 1973, swapped its shares in 2014, with an annualized rate of return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzer, bought in 1986, had contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to be bought in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>The H shares of PetroChina bought in 2003 were all sold from July to October 2007, with a pre-tax investment income of about 3.55 billion USD;</p><p>Wait.</p><p>Each vivid case not only shines in the world with prominent investment performance, but also contains changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is a brilliant corporate learner, able to quickly and precisely identify the key to a company's complexity. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always ready, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah did not wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care how the stock market moves in the short term, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of a company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Buffett is not out of date, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, his excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone competes to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there is an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concludes that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because of the ultra-low capital cost of Berkshire's insurance business, the return implies 1.4~1.6 times leverage.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve a combination of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" In fact, I am not a firm supporter of the market effectiveness hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the quantitative traditional finance part), on the other hand, from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the behavioral finance part), and on the other hand, it does have some luck. As the saying goes, the right time, the right place and the right people, no one can be missing.</p><p>So, what exactly did he do right to achieve such an investment achievement? Is it ability, luck, or self-determination?<b>This time, let's talk from three aspects: investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French's 5-factor model for an in-depth look at analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is on top of the famous three-factor model, adding the profitability factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, according to the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and the investment factor with Small and insignificant contribution, and introduced the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) of AQR and the Beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) to form a new FF five-factor model to divide the contribution of factors more accurately. The assumptions of the specific model will not be detailed here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above splits Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess return are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns reached 80.2%. In other words, Buffett's achievement was half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune) and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market value has a negative contribution. It can't be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here, but it may also be discussed in the selection of time period or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can find that most of the excess returns that had not been explained before dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them were explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the use of high leverage, safe, high-quality and cheap stocks at low funding costs, and long-term holdings. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify earnings. However, high leverage can only explain a part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the financing perspective, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He drives investment with debt and expands the circulation mode of investment.</p><p>To sum it up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself says: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheaper prices. One third of his success depends on the heavens (gambling on the times and the luck of the country), and most of it depends on people (personal investment ability is too good).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people in the world, but there is only one Buffett? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the world's good fortune is focused on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? In the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, first, we made a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire's yield, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is about 0.65, cross-intersection alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's original hypothesis that excess returns are 0. Further, from the yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained by the simple CAPM model reaches 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of return minus the variance of market return) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's lucky component, we adopt the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, there were 10,000 completely independent investors who invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their excess returns in each year obey a normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fittings, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the graph above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative earnings, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative rate of return exceeds Buffett's stochastic fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, among the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck), only 14 finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line is almost always at the top of the entire random fitting section throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained the performance of \"super god\" for a long time and has been stable in the range of the top 0.2%. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still disagree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the yields of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose them who look more \"bull fork\".</p><p><ul><li>14 investors who outperform Buffett are divided into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and the investor with the largest, 75% quantile, 25% quantile and the smallest is taken as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980~2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>My friends have found that these investors who finally outperformed Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage! Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, it had been worse than Buffett, catching up with and outperforming Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, my friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, there are many problems in the actual situation of this model. First, independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term constant investment, without considering personal life span, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even with all the flaws in this model, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? Very rare.</p><p>Acting on oneself and having a clear understanding of the competence circle</p><p>Value investment, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money that is oversold and created by the market's excessive reaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, is it because the company does have poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market overreacts under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging parts of value investment. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and reverse investment behavior.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors excessively pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, resulting in these \"beautiful\" stocks being overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, aside from his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, he and Munger are superior in behavior and psychology, and their accumulated practice is also a necessary condition for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human innate Cognitive Bias and Emotional Bias. Buffett and Munger's decision-making style, cognitive ability or emotional discipline are complementary to Buffett's superior performance. In particular, Munger's influence on Buffett, a master of investment and philosophy, is an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's Structural Charismatic Characteristics, 2. Berkshire's Structural Decision System, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both these factors and Buffett's investment framework can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely Over Estimation, Over Placement and Over Precision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to poor financial and other decisions for a long and sustained time.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious mind and is often called \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of the root cause of all prejudices, overconfidence, and are very cautious about it, and take a series of measures to avoid or minimize the adverse impact of overconfidence on decision-making. Like Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess their scope of knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being good.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of over 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, and their performance is far better than that of the already good S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the market environment, but more thanks to his personal stock picking strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not lucky, and it is almost unrealistic to beat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charm and character, and his great philosophical system, is the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even if it is as strong as the combination of Buffett and Munger, its performance has sometimes underperformed the market significantly from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. However, it is the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market effectiveness hypothesis untrue, and brings opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market in a long period.</p><p>However, the natural high tracking error of value investment on the market is also a double-edged sword. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but unable to bear tracking errors and failing. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are infinitely despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our belief in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long cycle of value investment.</p><p>To encourage each other.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett),1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇,今天,他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答:\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了,仅剩一点残值,它真的没有什么用了,但它不妨碍我工作,不妨碍我感到快乐,不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受,和热爱有任何减少,事实上,在某种意义上,我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣,这是富有竞争的游戏,很大一场游戏,我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩,从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报,从可口可乐的经典传奇,到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时,其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此,巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司,也因为几十万美元一股(A类)的天价,雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期,巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院,拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下,巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年,巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初,巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化,不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业,而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台,不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权,创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年,伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%,明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年,伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%(即10918倍以上),而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长,伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源:《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders,2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票,经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作,它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入!\n经典案例:巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表,其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果,依靠复利的力量,把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年,巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司(不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司)的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果(See’s Candies)公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢,而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里,巴菲特讲道:喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业,它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售,并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时,视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年,其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润,只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后,剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉,对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样:“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司(GEICO)\n1976年,巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司(GEICO)股票。1980年,巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票,总共持有其720万股,占GEICO总股本的33%,总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里,GEICO不断回购公司股票,伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年,伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%,并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后,GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资,帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司(GEICO)的渊源颇深。早在1950年,巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时,就去拜访过GEICO,时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式,告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡,那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年,可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境,股价较为低迷。1988年,巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份,1988年年底共持有1417万股,成本5.92亿。1989年,继续增持,持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股,总成本10.24亿。1994年,巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今,可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股,占总持仓比例的9.79%,持有4亿股,市值超过200亿美元,期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上,巴菲特表示,自己每天都喝可乐,从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年,每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年,那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐,这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司,管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务,同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性,而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有:\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报,2014年股权置换,年化收益率12%;\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔,到2000年,总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红;\n1988年开始买入的房地美,2000年全部卖出,税前总收益约为30亿美元;\n2003买入的中国石油H股,2007年7-10月全部卖出,税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元;\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例,不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世,背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者,能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资,也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着,正如他在公司年报中所说:“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何,强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代,他曾指出,在他已有的40年职业生涯中,12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时,价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神,其优异的历史业绩,一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究,并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识,一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文,叫巴菲特的超额收益(Buffet's Alpha),这篇论文得出结论,巴菲特的超额收益,来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票,并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本,回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是,迄今为止,还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度,分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过:\n\n “在我看来,成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式,计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反,投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来,做到知行合一,情绪不受市场波动影响,便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者,我相信市场不是完美的,但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看,巴菲特优异的历史业绩,一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本(也就是定量的传统金融学的部分),另一方面,来自于他和芒格的投资行为(也就是行为金融学的部分),还有一方面,确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓,天时地利人和,一个都不能少。\n所以,他到底做对了什么,可以获得如此的投资成就呢?是能力过人,还是运气使然,抑或是立身行己?这次,我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融,这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先,我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型,深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型,是在著名的三因子模型之上,加入了盈利因子RMW(Robust Minus Weak)和投资因子CMA(Conservative Minus Aggressive)。同时,我们根据五因子模型的统计结果,对原模型进行了加工,去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB(Small Minus Big)和投资因子,引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ(Quality Minus Junk)和贝塔因子BAB(Betting Against Beta),组成了新FF五因子模型,更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提,在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分,从传统的Fama-French五因子模型,可以看出市场本身和超额收益,是最大的两个占比,其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%,换句话说,巴菲特能取得如此的成就,一半感谢市场长期的上涨(国运),一半得益于自身优秀(能力)。\n其中需要注意的是,归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的,这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用,也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型,可以发现,之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益,从6.66%,下降到了2.40%,被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩,主要归功于以较低的融资成本,使用高杠杆,购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票,并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究,都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是,高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现,如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆,反而会降低其收益。从融资端看,巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券,和公司廉价的保费收入,以负债驱动投资,投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来:选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格,也就是巴老自己所说的:用一般的价格投资高质量的公司,优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功,三分之一靠天(赌时代和国家的运气),大部分靠人(个人投资能力太优秀)。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了,全世界几十亿人,也就出了一个巴菲特呀?是不是仅仅只是运气好呢?说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢?下面我们就来研究,神坛上到底是人还是神?还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里,首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析,得到结果如下:\n\n其中beta约为0.65,横截距alpha为0.0096,,并且两个参数都通过显著检验,说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言,从收益率上,我们可以看出,通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度,可以算得其超额收益的波动率(收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根)为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分,我们采用以下模型假设:\n\n在同一个初始时刻,有10000个完全独立的投资者,和巴菲特一起投资了1美元;\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机,其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0,方差等于16.83%的正态分布;\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底,无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合,得到结果如下图:\n\n上图中,蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益,橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出,10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者(凭运气),仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现!而且从图上还可以看出,在整个持有期内,巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现,一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内,这一定不是随机的运气,而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然,还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛,那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率,做个简单的研究,看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者,按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组,取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表;\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益,在同时期内(1980年~2017年),比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现,这些最终表现优于巴菲特(红色基准线之上)的投资者,可能根本在前期就活不下来喂!以表现最好的(蓝色)举个例子,其在2005年之前,在近25年的时间内,表现一直比巴菲特差,赶上并超过巴菲特,几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理,在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了,所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里,小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是,这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先,投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产,他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的;其次,投资的持有期,在实际生活中,38年的长期不变的投资,在不考虑个人寿命的情况下,应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷,但还是很好地说明了一个问题,想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特?难得很。\n立身行己,对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资,其实从行为学的角度来看,就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司,是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位,还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢?这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题,其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资,逆向投资要求有逆向思维,而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli,Yueran Ma,Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出:\n\n 过往一年高的利润率,会使得投资人过度乐观;而过往一年低的利润率,会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出:\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观,导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出:\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩,抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本,他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行,也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见(Cognitive Bias)和情感偏见(Emotional Bias)。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律,都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师,对于巴菲特的影响,都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年,定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素:1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征,2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系,3. 好的运气,4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来,不管是上述的因素,还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架,都能减少过度自信偏见(Over-Confident Bias)对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况,过度自信包含三个方面,即过度估计(Over Estimation),过度放置(Over Placement)和过度精确(Over Precision)。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同,但它们的共同点是:会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明,过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点,关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹,因为过度自信这个偏见,深深的根植于人类的潜意识,常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中,我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源,并对其非常的小心谨慎,采取一系列的手段,避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的:\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围,这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围,是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西,对生活和业务而言,比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间,巴菲特和芒格一起,获得了年化超20%的收益,累计上涨1100多倍,业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利,但更多的归功于个人的选股实力,其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分,想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档,其个人魅力和性格,以及其伟大的哲学体系,是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合,其业绩在历史上,也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘,那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入,从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差,放大了投资人的不理性行为,才使得市场有效性假说不成立,为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差,也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由,也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者,我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票,我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评,我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念,我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此,共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835733147,"gmtCreate":1629743259689,"gmtModify":1676530118050,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835733147","repostId":"2161772849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161772849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629740700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161772849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 01:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A carnival feast for the bulls! Fed in a dilemma? Dollar High Platform Diving Financial Market Played \"Rising Chorus\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772849","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中,美元指数持续走低,并刷新日低至93.01,因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐;美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金,现货黄金终于突破1800...","content":"<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the U.S. market, and reached a daily low of 93.01, due to the market's doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy, which triggered profit-taking; The worry caused by the fall of the US dollar and the raging COVID-19 epidemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, rising by $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. WTI crude oil in the United States rose by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow up 300 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. The Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, amid the ongoing COVID backlash. Fed Chairman Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering the quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>U.S. Intraday Data Releases Mixed: U.S. August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of service PMI recorded 55.2, a new low since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI in August fell to 61.2 from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>U.S. corporate activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August against a backdrop of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising Covid cases, agency commentary said. This month's pullback in PMI highlights how hard supply chain disruptions have hit businesses already struggling to meet demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and accessing supplies.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the sales data of existing homes in the United States in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to the agency comment, the sales of existing homes in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July. Due to the moderate improvement of inventory, house prices fell from the previous month's record level. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales may be over from last year's 14-year high.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday and recorded its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week as doubts about the direction of US monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krona and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which gained more than 0.5%.</p><p>the US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's performance against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. Last week, Wuxing hit a high of 93.73, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that he may reconsider the need to start tapering bond purchases early if the virus hurts the economy. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say tapering should be done as soon as possible, suggesting that the Fed hawks were wavering ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he may adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to increase, so dovish comments from the Fed weighed on the dollar, as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" said a trader at a Japanese bank.</p><p>Some analysts believe further proliferation of the variant could derail the Fed's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus package by the end of the year.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the Fed's timeline for scaling back its $120 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursday and Friday. The Fed had originally decided to hold meetings in a hybrid of virtual and in-person, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given the rising virus risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chair Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>In a note, Nomura analyst Amemiya said Chairman Powell's speech, which will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\"\"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term focused.\"</p><p>\"Given the deterioration in the recently released data and the pandemic situation, some of the risks that we see Powell focusing on is increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases,\" Amemiya added. \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a taper in December, although the FOMC is inclined to announce it in November ahead of the July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a note, \"Risk aversion will support the US dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the US dollar, given the rising risk of COVID-19, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecasts to show a smaller depreciation of the US dollar.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted to the rise amid lingering fears that the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic could hamper global economic growth as the dollar retreated.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, refreshing the daily high to $1,806.37, up $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p>the US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from last week's nine-and-a-half-month high, sending gold prices lower for holders of other currencies.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the short term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading toward tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts said in a research note that gold prices will continue to \"moderately move higher\" on the back of a weaker dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be widespread risk-off events, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger the need for a defensive inflation hedge,\" they said.</p><p>Oil prices jumped, snapping the worst seven-day losing streak in crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders viewed the recent sell-off as excessive.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79/barrel, or 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% at one point, hitting an intraday high of $66.00/barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI Crude Oil Futures 30-Minute Chart, Source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rally marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38/barrel on Monday, after a week of oil prices at their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new cases in China undoubtedly provides a tailwind, as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID tunnel and brings a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"In addition, the US dollar has fallen from its recent highs, providing broad support for commodity markets.\"</p><p>It comes after oil prices fell amid fears of a slowdown in demand as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spread, leading to new lockdowns in countries such as Japan and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and an increase in production from U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>Commerzbank analysts noted: \"We believe that the price weakness is excessive and believe that it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data.\"</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading on Monday after a turbulent week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on key events that the Federal Reserve may have hinted at tapering its stimulus package.</p><p><strong>The Dow rose 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to withdraw its monetary stimulus measures could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 fell nearly 0.6%, snapping a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>\"We suspect that the upcoming monetary policy changes, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of COVID-19 cases are challenging investor confidence,\" Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note.</p><p>Major indexes will rise slightly in August. So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of Private Wealth Management, said, \"August has always been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are worried at present.\"</p><p>\"The rise in COVID-19 cases and the downward spiral in Afghanistan is creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on holiday.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>U.S. stock market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Sales of existing homes</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A carnival feast for the bulls! Fed in a dilemma? Dollar High Platform Diving Financial Market Played \"Rising Chorus\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA carnival feast for the bulls! Fed in a dilemma? Dollar High Platform Diving Financial Market Played \"Rising Chorus\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 01:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the U.S. market, and reached a daily low of 93.01, due to the market's doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy, which triggered profit-taking; The worry caused by the fall of the US dollar and the raging COVID-19 epidemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, rising by $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. WTI crude oil in the United States rose by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow up 300 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. The Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, amid the ongoing COVID backlash. Fed Chairman Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering the quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>U.S. Intraday Data Releases Mixed: U.S. August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of service PMI recorded 55.2, a new low since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI in August fell to 61.2 from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>U.S. corporate activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August against a backdrop of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising Covid cases, agency commentary said. This month's pullback in PMI highlights how hard supply chain disruptions have hit businesses already struggling to meet demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and accessing supplies.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the sales data of existing homes in the United States in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to the agency comment, the sales of existing homes in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July. Due to the moderate improvement of inventory, house prices fell from the previous month's record level. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales may be over from last year's 14-year high.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday and recorded its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week as doubts about the direction of US monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krona and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which gained more than 0.5%.</p><p>the US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's performance against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. Last week, Wuxing hit a high of 93.73, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that he may reconsider the need to start tapering bond purchases early if the virus hurts the economy. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say tapering should be done as soon as possible, suggesting that the Fed hawks were wavering ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he may adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to increase, so dovish comments from the Fed weighed on the dollar, as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" said a trader at a Japanese bank.</p><p>Some analysts believe further proliferation of the variant could derail the Fed's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus package by the end of the year.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the Fed's timeline for scaling back its $120 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursday and Friday. The Fed had originally decided to hold meetings in a hybrid of virtual and in-person, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given the rising virus risk.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chair Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>In a note, Nomura analyst Amemiya said Chairman Powell's speech, which will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\"\"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term focused.\"</p><p>\"Given the deterioration in the recently released data and the pandemic situation, some of the risks that we see Powell focusing on is increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases,\" Amemiya added. \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a taper in December, although the FOMC is inclined to announce it in November ahead of the July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a note, \"Risk aversion will support the US dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the US dollar, given the rising risk of COVID-19, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecasts to show a smaller depreciation of the US dollar.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted to the rise amid lingering fears that the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic could hamper global economic growth as the dollar retreated.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, refreshing the daily high to $1,806.37, up $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p>the US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from last week's nine-and-a-half-month high, sending gold prices lower for holders of other currencies.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the short term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading toward tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts said in a research note that gold prices will continue to \"moderately move higher\" on the back of a weaker dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be widespread risk-off events, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger the need for a defensive inflation hedge,\" they said.</p><p>Oil prices jumped, snapping the worst seven-day losing streak in crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders viewed the recent sell-off as excessive.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79/barrel, or 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% at one point, hitting an intraday high of $66.00/barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI Crude Oil Futures 30-Minute Chart, Source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rally marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38/barrel on Monday, after a week of oil prices at their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new cases in China undoubtedly provides a tailwind, as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID tunnel and brings a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"In addition, the US dollar has fallen from its recent highs, providing broad support for commodity markets.\"</p><p>It comes after oil prices fell amid fears of a slowdown in demand as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spread, leading to new lockdowns in countries such as Japan and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and an increase in production from U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>Commerzbank analysts noted: \"We believe that the price weakness is excessive and believe that it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data.\"</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading on Monday after a turbulent week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on key events that the Federal Reserve may have hinted at tapering its stimulus package.</p><p><strong>The Dow rose 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to withdraw its monetary stimulus measures could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 fell nearly 0.6%, snapping a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>\"We suspect that the upcoming monetary policy changes, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of COVID-19 cases are challenging investor confidence,\" Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note.</p><p>Major indexes will rise slightly in August. So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of Private Wealth Management, said, \"August has always been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are worried at present.\"</p><p>\"The rise in COVID-19 cases and the downward spiral in Afghanistan is creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on holiday.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>U.S. stock market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Sales of existing homes</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062913689736.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772849","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中,美元指数持续走低,并刷新日低至93.01,因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐;美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金,现货黄金终于突破1800美元大关,较日低拉升30美元;原油市场则受到美元走软以及中国零新增确诊病例的提振,美国WTI原油大幅上涨6%;美股三大股指齐涨,其中道指上涨300点或0.8%,纳指则上涨1.6%。在新冠疫情持续反扑之际,美联储将于本周稍晚在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔的经济展望演讲和缩减量化宽松的时间等备受关注。美国日内公布的数据良莠不齐:美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值录得55.2,创去年12月以来新低。 美国8月份制造业PMI初值从7月份的63.4降至61.2。机构评论称,美国企业活动继续放缓,在原材料短缺、劳动力短缺和新冠病例增加的背景下,8月份的增长放缓至八个月低点。本月PMI的回落凸显出供应链中断对已经难以满足需求的企业的打击程度。服务供应商和制造商继续面临吸引工人和获得供应的挑战。不过随后公布的另一项数据表现强劲:美国7月成屋销售数据为599万户,预期581万户,前值修正为587万户。机构点评称,美国7月成屋销售连续第二个月增加,因库存温和改善,房价较前月纪录水准回落。销售额的增长表明,从去年的14年高点来看,今年的销售额下降趋势可能已经结束。美元周一全线下跌,上周录得逾两个月来最大单周升幅,因对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐。澳元、挪威克朗和加元等风险较高的货币是美元走软的主要受益者,这些货币的涨幅均超过了0.5%。美元指数上周触及九个月高点,较5月低点上涨近5%,因投资者进一步押注美联储将先于欧洲和日本开始缩减疫情时期的刺激政策。美市盘中,衡量美元兑其他主要货币表现的美元指数下跌近0.5%,至93.01,上周五兴触及93.73高点,为自去年11月初以来的最高水平。(美元指数30分钟走势图,来源:FX168)但达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五表示,如果病毒损害经济,他可能会重新考虑是否有必要提前开始缩减购债规模。卡普兰是知名鹰派人士。卡普兰是第一个表示应该尽早缩债的美联储官员,其看法表明在杰克逊霍尔会议召开前,美联储鹰派有所动摇。“卡普兰表示,如果德尔塔变种病例持续增加,他可能调整对资产购买的看法,因此美联储的鸽派言论打压美元,因对德尔塔的担忧升温对美元不利,”一家日本银行的交易员称。一些分析师认为,该变体的进一步扩散可能会破坏美联储在年底前缩减其大流行时期刺激计划的计划。交易员正急切地等待杰克逊霍尔研讨会,以寻找美联储缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买计划时间表的线索。该活动在周四和周五进行。美联储原本决定以虚拟和现场混合的方式举行会议,但鉴于病毒风险不断上升,上周五决定全部采用虚拟方式。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会议上讨论经济前景,交易商将仔细分析他的讲话,以寻求有关政策收紧时机和步伐的线索。鲍威尔迄今一直在淡化德尔塔事件的影响。野村证券分析师Amemiya在一份报告中称,鲍威尔主席的演讲将以“经济展望”为题,“可能暗示他的演讲可能更注重短期”。Amemiya补充说:“鉴于最近公布的数据的恶化和大流行形势,我们看到鲍威尔关注的一些风险是,由于最新的新冠病例激增,不确定性增加。”“至少,我们认为美联储官员最近的言论支持了我们的观点,即美联储将在12月宣布缩减购债规模,尽管FOMC倾向于在7月会议之前在11月宣布。”三菱日联金融集团策略师在一份报告中称,“风险规避将支撑美元。尽管谨慎的美联储应缩小美元的涨幅,但鉴于新冠肺炎风险上升,我们需要对年底外汇预测进行一些调整,以显示美元贬值幅度减小。”随着美元回落,市场对新冠肺炎疫情加剧可能阻碍全球经济增长的担忧挥之不去,金价受到提振上涨。日内稍早,现货金冲破1800美元大关,刷新日高至1806.37美元,较日低拉升30美元。(现货黄金30分钟走势图,来源:FX168)美元指数下跌0.3%,从上周九个半月的高点回落,令其他货币持有者的黄金价格下跌。“美元小幅走软,抵消了收益率上升的影响,并扶助金价,”盛宝银行分析师Ole Hansen表示。“短期内,我们预计不会有太大的变化,因为我们正在等待杰克逊霍尔得到一个迹象,即美联储是否正走向缩减规模,或者最新的病毒爆发是否已经给这些预期踩了刹车。”高盛分析师在一份研究报告中表示,由于美元走弱和新兴市场需求复苏,金价将继续“温和走高”。“但黄金若要大幅走高,就必须出现普遍的避险事件,例如通胀担忧卷土重来,这将引发对防御性通胀对冲的需求,”他们表示。油价跳涨,结束了自2019年以来原油价格最糟糕的连续7天下跌,原因是美元回落,交易员认为近期的抛售过度。美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货价格现上涨3.65美元,交投于65.79美元/桶,涨幅5.87%。当天早些时候,油价一度上涨逾6%,触及66.00美元/桶的盘中高点,创下去年11月以来的最佳单日涨幅。(WTI原油期货30分钟走势图,来源:FX168)这一大幅上涨标志着该合约从上周下跌近9%的情况开始好转,这是自2020年10月以来最差的一周表现,也是三周来第二次出现负增长。WTI原油上周五收于5月20日以来的最低水平。周一,国际基准布伦特原油价格上涨了5%,至68.38美元/桶,涨幅为3.20美元,此前一周油价创下了自2020年10月以来的最差水平。蓝线期货分析师指出:“中国零新增病例的消息无疑提供了一股顺风,因为它在新冠疫情隧道的尽头增添了一丝曙光,给需求格局带来了一丝新鲜空气。”“此外,美元已从近期高点回落,为大宗商品市场提供了广泛支撑。”此前,随着新冠病毒德尔塔变种的传播,人们担心需求会放缓,导致日本和新西兰等国实施新一轮封锁,油价随之下跌。此外,作为全球最大原油进口国的中国疲弱的经济数据也给油价带来了压力。美国最新库存报告还显示,汽油库存增加,美国生产商的产量也有所增加。但一些华尔街公司表示,抛售看起来有些过头了。德国商业银行分析师指出:“我们认为价格疲软过度,并认为这更多地与市场参与者的心理有关,而不是与基本面数据的恶化有关。”美国股市周一早盘走高,此前美国股市经历了动荡的一周,投资者关注美联储可能暗示缩减刺激计划的关键事件。道琼斯指数上涨300点,涨幅0.8%。标准普尔500指数上涨1.0%,纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%。(图源:CNBC)由于投资者越来越担心美联储可能撤出货币刺激措施的举动可能会减缓经济复苏,主要股指在经历了一周的下跌后开始回升。道指上周下跌1.1%,标准普尔500指数下跌近0.6%,结束了连续两周的上涨势头。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌0.7%。Piper Sandler技术市场策略师Craig Johnson在一份报告中表示:“我们怀疑,即将到来的货币政策变化、增长与价值的转变以及新冠肺炎病例的上升轨迹,正在挑战投资者的信心。”8月份主要股指将小幅上涨。本月迄今,标准普尔500指数上涨了1.1%,而道指上涨了0.5%,纳斯达克指数上涨了0.3%。瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Rod von Lipsey称,“8月历来是市场波动较大的月份,今年也不例外,投资者目前忧心重重。”“新冠肺炎病例的上升和阿富汗的螺旋式下降正在制造一场信心危机,而此时许多投资者正在度假。”\n\n\n\n\n\n 美元\n \n\n\n\n 黄金\n \n\n\n\n 美国股市\n \n\n\n\n 原油\n \n\n\n\n 美联储\n \n\n\n\n 鲍威尔\n \n\n\n\n 成屋销售\n \n\n\n\n 美国PMI\n \n\n\n\n\n\n分享","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QID":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UPRO":0.6,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899434735,"gmtCreate":1628209894027,"gmtModify":1703503135627,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" Good","listText":" Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899434735","repostId":"1186213069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025616,"gmtCreate":1627826287135,"gmtModify":1703496322391,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025616","repostId":"2156169561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025843,"gmtCreate":1627826259682,"gmtModify":1703496322227,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025843","repostId":"1170169817","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170169817","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627819590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170169817?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 20:06","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: Sell 11% equity of Hengteng Network for HK$3.25 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170169817","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月1日,恒腾网络在港交所公告称,中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权,总代价为32.5亿港元,每股3.20港元。其中,买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司,其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期,买方一持","content":"<p>On August 1st, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK$3.25 billion or HK$3.20 per share. Among them, Purchaser 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of announcement, Purchaser I held approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande: Sell 11% equity of Hengteng Network for HK$3.25 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: Sell 11% equity of Hengteng Network for HK$3.25 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-01 20:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 1st, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK$3.25 billion or HK$3.20 per share. Among them, Purchaser 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of announcement, Purchaser I held approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大","00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170169817","content_text":"8月1日,恒腾网络在港交所公告称,中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权,总代价为32.5亿港元,每股3.20港元。其中,买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司,其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期,买方一持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约16.90%;而中国恒大持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约37.55%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9,"00136":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}