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Lpcool

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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·07-03
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ Sell or not sell?
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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·2022-05-18
  Good
  投资大佬巨亏2000亿，这是给VC们最残酷的一课
  “连大佬都亏得那么多，我们慌啥。”
  投资大佬巨亏2000亿，这是给VC们最残酷的一课
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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·2022-04-05
  $新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$Up up
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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·2022-03-31
  $Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$Up
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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·2022-02-01
  good article
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·2022-01-13
  👍
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- LpcoolLpcool
  ·2021-12-18
  Please indicate and credit the author, James Long who is my friend and he posted the article on SA earlier. The original paid article link is here:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity$Zoom(ZM)$was up 9.51% last night.
  Zoom Video Communications: Zoom In To This Buying Opportunity
  Summary Zoom is no longer a hypergrowth stock but is still a profitable business that can grow its
  Zoom Video Communications: Zoom In To This Buying Opportunity
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sell?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/01c9bf6848f6d6b3af1a8f34bf61f079","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323282508296336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029435705,"gmtCreate":1652824218707,"gmtModify":1676535166091,"author":{"id":"3586305404358330","authorId":"3586305404358330","name":"Lpcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e268430b53b8e384b675c7106ca12517","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586305404358330","idStr":"3586305404358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029435705","repostId":"1164486275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164486275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652779475,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164486275?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"投资大佬巨亏2000亿，这是给VC们最残酷的一课","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164486275","media":"投资界","summary":"“连大佬都亏得那么多，我们慌啥。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：杨继云</p><p>“连大佬都亏得那么多，我们慌啥。”</p><p>2022年前4个月，老虎环球基金（Tiger Global Management）已经亏损170亿美元（约1153亿人民币），这是老虎环球基金史上最糟糕的一页。</p><p>无独有偶，软银孙正义也酿成了风投史上最大窟窿——截止今年3月31日，软银净亏损900亿人民币，其中罪魁祸首是软银愿景基金。</p><p>结果相似，追溯他们的过程也有着惊人的相似。过去几年，软银和老虎横扫一级市场，最令人印象深刻的莫过于——肯给高估值，敢给高估值，不计较估值的碾压式打法。</p><p>然而今日，曾经的疯狂已无人买单。</p><p>这个教训同样值得国内所有VC反思——当初投得有多大方，可能后面算账就有多难看。</p><p><b>史上最惨：老虎和软银，亏了2000亿</b></p><p>2022年，大概率成为老虎环球基金史上战绩最差的一年。</p><p>这一次，老虎环球基金在一二级市场累计亏掉约170亿美元（约1153亿人民币），令人触目惊人。这一个数字意味着，老虎环球基金已经将2020年流动性牛市中赚到的48%的收益，全部亏了出去。</p><p>亏得已经不想解释了。老虎环球最近致投资者的一封简信中承认：“我们不相信借口，所以也不会找任何借口。”</p><p>细细探究，老虎这次折戟的最主要原因，在于科技股惨淡的表现。2022年以来，美股持续动荡难测，今年4月纳斯达克指数跌幅超过13%，该指数今年以来已跌逾25%，重仓了科技股的老虎环球基金自然因此蒙受巨大亏损。</p><p>成立于2001年，老虎环球基金如今生意横跨一二级市场——不仅是举世闻名的对冲基金，也是一级市场赫赫有名的大鳄。</p><p>从2003年开始，老虎环球基金就进入了中国。谈到在中国的成绩，不得不提到前老虎环球基金合伙人、中国总经理陈小红——一个几乎不接受采访，拥有传奇色彩的创投女性。要说老虎环球基金一级市场战绩，最为人熟知的莫过于当年对于京东的经典一役。</p><p>资料显示，2010年，老虎环球基金就大手笔投给京东2.5亿美元，2014年京东上市，老虎的最终回报也是高达70多亿美元。此后，老虎环球基金一直活跃在创投圈，出手凌厉且激进。</p><p>眼下和老虎环球基金遭遇惊人相似的，还有软银。</p><p>上周四，孙正义在日本东京公布了软银集团最新财报，数字同样触目惊人：截至3月31日，软银集团2021财年净亏损为1.7万亿日元（约合人民币900亿元）。其中，愿景基金2021财年净亏损高达2.64万亿日元（约合人民币1400亿元）。</p><p>即便放在全球范围来看，这都是风投史上最大一笔亏损，绝无仅有。</p><p>为此，孙正义宣布正式放缓投资：软银将采取保守的投资步伐。他还给出一个具体数字：与去年相比，今年投资额将减半或四分之一。</p><p>至此，全球一级市场上昔日最凶猛的两个玩家——老虎环球基金和软银，一举累计赔掉了约2000亿元人民币。翻开过去二十年创投历史，这样的一幕第一次出现。</p><p><b>疯狂一幕：肯给高估值，敢给高估值现在无人买单</b></p><p>平心而论，老虎环球基金和软银天坑亏损背后有一定宏观环境的原因——全球疫情、美元加息、俄乌战争.....但不能全是大环境背锅。</p><p>熟悉创投圈的人都知道，老虎环球基金和软银两位兄弟身后有惊人相似的一处——出手凶狠，投出一堆高估值明星独角兽。</p><p>回首过去一年，老虎环球基金横扫VC圈的一幕依然令人印象深刻。当时有多疯狂？老虎环球基金四处出击，常常在24小时之内完成尽职调查，大手一挥迅速投资；几乎每两天便能宣布一项新的投资，而对手还没有回过神来。老虎环球基金节奏之快令人咂舌，但正是凭借超高的规模化程度和超快的投资速度取得优势。</p><p>为此，同行曾总结了老虎环球基金的VC策略：1、对好的高科技企业先下手为强；2、通过尽职调查和发放投资意向书，（非常）快速行动；3、支付（极）高于历史标准或竞争对手的价格；4、投资后用（非常）轻量的方式参与公司事务。</p><p>这样的“老虎速度”极具压迫感。在2021年上半年，老虎环球已经是全球最活跃的投资机构，甚至超过了Andreessen Horowitz等VC基金。2021年年中有个数据，在全球诞生的166家独角兽企业中，老虎基金最为活跃，投中了124家——这使得老虎在全球风头市场遥遥领先。</p><p>北京一位与老虎环球基金竞争过项目的VC合伙人告诉投资界，“老虎基金的打法，如果真的在中国市场落地，很多VC都没机会了。好项目都被他们吸引过去了，给钱快还足，足够的资金、资源、人才覆盖市场，花不完的钱……赢得市场靠的就是力量。”他打了一个比喻，在那种堪称核武器的力量面前，任何雕虫小技都没有意义了。</p><p>归根结底，这种打法最大特点就是肯给高估值，敢给高估值。老虎环球基金拥有自己的一套估值逻辑，敢于用大量的资金对于还在犹豫估值模型的VC/PE进行碾压。一位投资人讲述了一个细节——</p><p>当时一家独角兽正和几个头部基金在谈融资，结果老虎环球基金一上来就给出比大家高 25%的估值。该公司CEO有点不敢相信，反馈说内部先考虑一下，老虎团队马上反问，需要多少价格才行？CEO说要不加1亿美元，老虎立即同意了。</p><p>不止于此。2020年时，老虎自曝在过去21个月购买了字节跳动的股权，不断增加对字节的投资比例，彼时字节估值是1800亿美元。但令人没有想到的是，投资界获悉，2021年，老虎环球基金又以4600亿美金的估值给字节投了11亿。4600亿美金，已经明显高出了字节在一二级市场的估值。</p><p>软银和老虎的风格都是一样的关键词：强势、高估值、碾压式。</p><p>最明显的例子，是孙正义大手笔强势投资滴滴。当年谈判时，孙正义留下一句为创投圈津津乐道的话，“要么接受我的投资，要么我去投资你的竞争对手”。</p><p>此次软银愿景最大亏损来自对WeWork的投资，更是孙正义风格的真实写照。从2017年开始，外界普遍质疑共享办公伪命题，孙正义不顾一切重仓WeWork并成为其最大外部持股方。当年，Wework创始人诺伊曼对外介绍，“当孙正义第一次选择投资我时，他只用了28分钟。”</p><p>此后很长一段时间里，这甚至成为一个风投神话：一笔不顾估值数字，只需相信直觉的投资。</p><p>后来的故事大家都知道了，顶着470亿估值上市的WeWork于2019年IPO失败，直到了2021年10月WeWork才通过SPAC艰难在纽交所上市，市值大打折扣。连续以高估值投资了104亿美元的软银亏损严重，如今WeWork整体市值只有几十亿美元，还不及软银对其的总体投资额。</p><p>这样的案例不胜枚举。高估值进入，上市后表现却令人大跌眼镜；受二级市场的不安影响，老虎环球基金和软银集团押注的大批一级市场公司的估值也陆续下调，这些成为导致他们亏损的重要原因。</p><p>比如老虎曾以160亿美元的估值，向支付处理公司Toast投资了2.54亿美元，但今天Toast的价值只有78亿美元；老虎曾以58亿美元估值投资的印度外卖平台Zomato，现在的市值也跌倒了53亿……曾经的高估值，无人买单。</p><p><b>出来混的，迟早要还的：中国VC最残酷一课</b></p><p>老虎与软银亏了2000亿，足以给国内VC敲响一个长长的警钟。</p><p>过去几年间，中国一级市场的估值虚高疯狂一幕有目共睹。</p><p>曾经的消费盛宴，一级市场酝酿出的巨大估值泡沫让投资人看不清来路，但潮水很快退去，不少公司现出了原形；还有半导体，过亿元天使轮融资应接不暇，估值暴涨成为了家常便饭。</p><p>“干了这么多年，突然发现估值的账不会算了。现在大家都在抢风口的项目，竟然出现了很多天使阶段就敢估值几个亿、十个亿的‘明星企业’。”一家本土创投机构合伙人感叹。</p><p>但昨日狂欢正在变为今日的眼泪。</p><p>今年以来，一级市场正面临严峻的募资与退出之困，无论是A股还是港股，破发现象层出不穷，让背后一众VC/PE难掩失落——一二级估值倒挂上演，投资人甚至都亏到了B轮了。</p><p>“按照现在二级市场的市值，一级市场的估值还得再降一降，否则现在投得有多大方，后面算账就有多难看。”当VC/PE出现估值焦虑，投资开始放缓。</p><p>昔日忙碌的投资人集体按下了暂停键。清科研究中心公布了一组数据——今年一季度市场明显放缓节奏，投资案例数和金额分别同比下降27.5%和47.1%，换言之，今年投出的钱比去年同期少了近一半，堪称腰斩。对LP负责，GP不再轻易出手。</p><p>“等估值降下来”，这是投资界数月以来听到最多的一句话。我们可以隐约看到这样一个画面：其实绝大多数VC/PE仍有余粮，但现在更珍惜子弹，捂紧口袋默默等着项目估值来到一个合理的位置。</p><p>下调估值，已经成为企业最迫在眉睫的事情，否则可能弹尽粮绝。</p><p>我们看到，新消费独角兽的估值正在集体回落，去年投不进的项目，开始纷纷松口了。半导体也开始了，“我愿意接受平轮”的创始人开始多了起来。还有创新药、SAAS领域，估值都开始下调回归理性。</p><p>“估值是大家都不愿意面对但又必须面对的话题。”北京一位投资人建议创业者，在现有环境下，还是要比较现实，不要被公司过去的估值绑架。</p><p>这一次，老虎和软银用血淋淋的教训给国内VC上了生动而真实的一课——出来混的，迟早要还的。</p></body></html>","source":"tzj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>投资大佬巨亏2000亿，这是给VC们最残酷的一课</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n投资大佬巨亏2000亿，这是给VC们最残酷的一课\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 17:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/54wqtJCQYHHGqT2VZb8LEQ><strong>投资界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：杨继云“连大佬都亏得那么多，我们慌啥。”2022年前4个月，老虎环球基金（Tiger Global Management）已经亏损170亿美元（约1153亿人民币），这是老虎环球基金史上最糟糕的一页。无独有偶，软银孙正义也酿成了风投史上最大窟窿——截止今年3月31日，软银净亏损900亿人民币，其中罪魁祸首是软银愿景基金。结果相似，追溯他们的过程也有着惊人的相似。过去几年，软银和老虎横扫一级...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/54wqtJCQYHHGqT2VZb8LEQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"00612":"鼎益丰控股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/54wqtJCQYHHGqT2VZb8LEQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164486275","content_text":"作者：杨继云“连大佬都亏得那么多，我们慌啥。”2022年前4个月，老虎环球基金（Tiger Global Management）已经亏损170亿美元（约1153亿人民币），这是老虎环球基金史上最糟糕的一页。无独有偶，软银孙正义也酿成了风投史上最大窟窿——截止今年3月31日，软银净亏损900亿人民币，其中罪魁祸首是软银愿景基金。结果相似，追溯他们的过程也有着惊人的相似。过去几年，软银和老虎横扫一级市场，最令人印象深刻的莫过于——肯给高估值，敢给高估值，不计较估值的碾压式打法。然而今日，曾经的疯狂已无人买单。这个教训同样值得国内所有VC反思——当初投得有多大方，可能后面算账就有多难看。史上最惨：老虎和软银，亏了2000亿2022年，大概率成为老虎环球基金史上战绩最差的一年。这一次，老虎环球基金在一二级市场累计亏掉约170亿美元（约1153亿人民币），令人触目惊人。这一个数字意味着，老虎环球基金已经将2020年流动性牛市中赚到的48%的收益，全部亏了出去。亏得已经不想解释了。老虎环球最近致投资者的一封简信中承认：“我们不相信借口，所以也不会找任何借口。”细细探究，老虎这次折戟的最主要原因，在于科技股惨淡的表现。2022年以来，美股持续动荡难测，今年4月纳斯达克指数跌幅超过13%，该指数今年以来已跌逾25%，重仓了科技股的老虎环球基金自然因此蒙受巨大亏损。成立于2001年，老虎环球基金如今生意横跨一二级市场——不仅是举世闻名的对冲基金，也是一级市场赫赫有名的大鳄。从2003年开始，老虎环球基金就进入了中国。谈到在中国的成绩，不得不提到前老虎环球基金合伙人、中国总经理陈小红——一个几乎不接受采访，拥有传奇色彩的创投女性。要说老虎环球基金一级市场战绩，最为人熟知的莫过于当年对于京东的经典一役。资料显示，2010年，老虎环球基金就大手笔投给京东2.5亿美元，2014年京东上市，老虎的最终回报也是高达70多亿美元。此后，老虎环球基金一直活跃在创投圈，出手凌厉且激进。眼下和老虎环球基金遭遇惊人相似的，还有软银。上周四，孙正义在日本东京公布了软银集团最新财报，数字同样触目惊人：截至3月31日，软银集团2021财年净亏损为1.7万亿日元（约合人民币900亿元）。其中，愿景基金2021财年净亏损高达2.64万亿日元（约合人民币1400亿元）。即便放在全球范围来看，这都是风投史上最大一笔亏损，绝无仅有。为此，孙正义宣布正式放缓投资：软银将采取保守的投资步伐。他还给出一个具体数字：与去年相比，今年投资额将减半或四分之一。至此，全球一级市场上昔日最凶猛的两个玩家——老虎环球基金和软银，一举累计赔掉了约2000亿元人民币。翻开过去二十年创投历史，这样的一幕第一次出现。疯狂一幕：肯给高估值，敢给高估值现在无人买单平心而论，老虎环球基金和软银天坑亏损背后有一定宏观环境的原因——全球疫情、美元加息、俄乌战争.....但不能全是大环境背锅。熟悉创投圈的人都知道，老虎环球基金和软银两位兄弟身后有惊人相似的一处——出手凶狠，投出一堆高估值明星独角兽。回首过去一年，老虎环球基金横扫VC圈的一幕依然令人印象深刻。当时有多疯狂？老虎环球基金四处出击，常常在24小时之内完成尽职调查，大手一挥迅速投资；几乎每两天便能宣布一项新的投资，而对手还没有回过神来。老虎环球基金节奏之快令人咂舌，但正是凭借超高的规模化程度和超快的投资速度取得优势。为此，同行曾总结了老虎环球基金的VC策略：1、对好的高科技企业先下手为强；2、通过尽职调查和发放投资意向书，（非常）快速行动；3、支付（极）高于历史标准或竞争对手的价格；4、投资后用（非常）轻量的方式参与公司事务。这样的“老虎速度”极具压迫感。在2021年上半年，老虎环球已经是全球最活跃的投资机构，甚至超过了Andreessen Horowitz等VC基金。2021年年中有个数据，在全球诞生的166家独角兽企业中，老虎基金最为活跃，投中了124家——这使得老虎在全球风头市场遥遥领先。北京一位与老虎环球基金竞争过项目的VC合伙人告诉投资界，“老虎基金的打法，如果真的在中国市场落地，很多VC都没机会了。好项目都被他们吸引过去了，给钱快还足，足够的资金、资源、人才覆盖市场，花不完的钱……赢得市场靠的就是力量。”他打了一个比喻，在那种堪称核武器的力量面前，任何雕虫小技都没有意义了。归根结底，这种打法最大特点就是肯给高估值，敢给高估值。老虎环球基金拥有自己的一套估值逻辑，敢于用大量的资金对于还在犹豫估值模型的VC/PE进行碾压。一位投资人讲述了一个细节——当时一家独角兽正和几个头部基金在谈融资，结果老虎环球基金一上来就给出比大家高 25%的估值。该公司CEO有点不敢相信，反馈说内部先考虑一下，老虎团队马上反问，需要多少价格才行？CEO说要不加1亿美元，老虎立即同意了。不止于此。2020年时，老虎自曝在过去21个月购买了字节跳动的股权，不断增加对字节的投资比例，彼时字节估值是1800亿美元。但令人没有想到的是，投资界获悉，2021年，老虎环球基金又以4600亿美金的估值给字节投了11亿。4600亿美金，已经明显高出了字节在一二级市场的估值。软银和老虎的风格都是一样的关键词：强势、高估值、碾压式。最明显的例子，是孙正义大手笔强势投资滴滴。当年谈判时，孙正义留下一句为创投圈津津乐道的话，“要么接受我的投资，要么我去投资你的竞争对手”。此次软银愿景最大亏损来自对WeWork的投资，更是孙正义风格的真实写照。从2017年开始，外界普遍质疑共享办公伪命题，孙正义不顾一切重仓WeWork并成为其最大外部持股方。当年，Wework创始人诺伊曼对外介绍，“当孙正义第一次选择投资我时，他只用了28分钟。”此后很长一段时间里，这甚至成为一个风投神话：一笔不顾估值数字，只需相信直觉的投资。后来的故事大家都知道了，顶着470亿估值上市的WeWork于2019年IPO失败，直到了2021年10月WeWork才通过SPAC艰难在纽交所上市，市值大打折扣。连续以高估值投资了104亿美元的软银亏损严重，如今WeWork整体市值只有几十亿美元，还不及软银对其的总体投资额。这样的案例不胜枚举。高估值进入，上市后表现却令人大跌眼镜；受二级市场的不安影响，老虎环球基金和软银集团押注的大批一级市场公司的估值也陆续下调，这些成为导致他们亏损的重要原因。比如老虎曾以160亿美元的估值，向支付处理公司Toast投资了2.54亿美元，但今天Toast的价值只有78亿美元；老虎曾以58亿美元估值投资的印度外卖平台Zomato，现在的市值也跌倒了53亿……曾经的高估值，无人买单。出来混的，迟早要还的：中国VC最残酷一课老虎与软银亏了2000亿，足以给国内VC敲响一个长长的警钟。过去几年间，中国一级市场的估值虚高疯狂一幕有目共睹。曾经的消费盛宴，一级市场酝酿出的巨大估值泡沫让投资人看不清来路，但潮水很快退去，不少公司现出了原形；还有半导体，过亿元天使轮融资应接不暇，估值暴涨成为了家常便饭。“干了这么多年，突然发现估值的账不会算了。现在大家都在抢风口的项目，竟然出现了很多天使阶段就敢估值几个亿、十个亿的‘明星企业’。”一家本土创投机构合伙人感叹。但昨日狂欢正在变为今日的眼泪。今年以来，一级市场正面临严峻的募资与退出之困，无论是A股还是港股，破发现象层出不穷，让背后一众VC/PE难掩失落——一二级估值倒挂上演，投资人甚至都亏到了B轮了。“按照现在二级市场的市值，一级市场的估值还得再降一降，否则现在投得有多大方，后面算账就有多难看。”当VC/PE出现估值焦虑，投资开始放缓。昔日忙碌的投资人集体按下了暂停键。清科研究中心公布了一组数据——今年一季度市场明显放缓节奏，投资案例数和金额分别同比下降27.5%和47.1%，换言之，今年投出的钱比去年同期少了近一半，堪称腰斩。对LP负责，GP不再轻易出手。“等估值降下来”，这是投资界数月以来听到最多的一句话。我们可以隐约看到这样一个画面：其实绝大多数VC/PE仍有余粮，但现在更珍惜子弹，捂紧口袋默默等着项目估值来到一个合理的位置。下调估值，已经成为企业最迫在眉睫的事情，否则可能弹尽粮绝。我们看到，新消费独角兽的估值正在集体回落，去年投不进的项目，开始纷纷松口了。半导体也开始了，“我愿意接受平轮”的创始人开始多了起来。还有创新药、SAAS领域，估值都开始下调回归理性。“估值是大家都不愿意面对但又必须面对的话题。”北京一位投资人建议创业者，在现有环境下，还是要比较现实，不要被公司过去的估值绑架。这一次，老虎和软银用血淋淋的教训给国内VC上了生动而真实的一课——出来混的，迟早要还的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016186179,"gmtCreate":1649148450477,"gmtModify":1676534459276,"author":{"id":"3586305404358330","authorId":"3586305404358330","name":"Lpcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e268430b53b8e384b675c7106ca12517","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586305404358330","idStr":"3586305404358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>Up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>Up up","text":"$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$Up up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acf79f51523d3ea1214281f2892defab","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016186179","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013998960,"gmtCreate":1648676102941,"gmtModify":1676534374197,"author":{"id":"3586305404358330","authorId":"3586305404358330","name":"Lpcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e268430b53b8e384b675c7106ca12517","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586305404358330","idStr":"3586305404358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QYLD\">$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$</a>Up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QYLD\">$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$</a>Up","text":"$Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF(QYLD)$Up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a8e971e5868174b7f5a343f947cae954","width":"1125","height":"3573"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013998960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093548467,"gmtCreate":1643678334840,"gmtModify":1676533842752,"author":{"id":"3586305404358330","authorId":"3586305404358330","name":"Lpcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e268430b53b8e384b675c7106ca12517","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586305404358330","idStr":"3586305404358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good article","listText":"good article","text":"good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093548467","repostId":"2208433305","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002207206,"gmtCreate":1642023395146,"gmtModify":1676533671467,"author":{"id":"3586305404358330","authorId":"3586305404358330","name":"Lpcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e268430b53b8e384b675c7106ca12517","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586305404358330","idStr":"3586305404358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002207206","repostId":"1186305933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000300676,"gmtCreate":1639792422150,"gmtModify":1676533494617,"author":{"id":"3586305404358330","authorId":"3586305404358330","name":"Lpcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e268430b53b8e384b675c7106ca12517","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586305404358330","idStr":"3586305404358330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please indicate and credit&nbsp;the author,&nbsp;James Long who is my friend and he posted the article on SA&nbsp;earlier. The original paid article link is here:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>was up 9.51% last night.&nbsp;","listText":"Please indicate and credit&nbsp;the author,&nbsp;James Long who is my friend and he posted the article on SA&nbsp;earlier. The original paid article link is here:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>was up 9.51% last night.&nbsp;","text":"Please indicate and credit the author, James Long who is my friend and he posted the article on SA earlier. The original paid article link is here:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity$Zoom(ZM)$was up 9.51% last night.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000300676","repostId":"1170036266","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170036266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639720549,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170036266?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-17 13:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom Video Communications: Zoom In To This Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170036266","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nZoom is no longer a hypergrowth stock but is still a profitable business that can grow its ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Zoom is no longer a hypergrowth stock but is still a profitable business that can grow its earnings at 10-13% annually.</li>\n <li>The company dominates the web conferencing market that it serves in.</li>\n <li>The new advertising revenue stream will be a major revenue growth catalyst.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94818fbfa47e4b07546e811a26ce91c5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Due to overblown fears of declining revenue growth, Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) has fallen 59% from its 1-year high into fair value territory of $185 as of close on Friday, 10 December 2021. Investors and analysts are unable to change their opinion on the company and continue to consider ZM as a hyper-growth stock that has slowed.</p>\n<p>I believe the critical investor should instead reframe his/her view and see Zoom as a company that is dominating 50% of the web conferencing market ahead of rivals like Cisco WebEx (NASDAQ:CSCO), GoToWebinar, and Microsoft Teams (NASDAQ:MSFT). They should see Zoom as a business with high double-digit profit margin that brought in more than $1.65 billion in profits this year, and is capable of sustaining a respectable 13% average growth for the next 3 to 5 years. Further, ZM's potential to bring in a new revenue stream cannot be underestimated. For these reasons, I have a bullish view on the ZM stock. Read more in the sections below.</p>\n<p><b>Company Background</b></p>\n<p>Zoom is a video-first communications platform led by founder Mr. Eric Yuan. It is a relatively new company that IPOed in 2019. ZM shares closed at $76.30 on 1 January 2020, when the Coronavirus pandemic had yet to present itself. Exactly 11 months later, fueled by the Covid-induced global lockdown that created a demand for the company's product that allows for easy connectivity between students, families and organizations, ZM's shares rose to a high of $478.36.</p>\n<p>Zoom not only became a household name, it also became a verb. From the time the company IPOed 3 years ago, it increased its revenue by 1,645% and its net income by 60,746%. Operating margin improved from 1.87% in 2019 to 27.3% in the&nbsp;TTM period (Q3 FY 2022). Net margin soared from 2.29% to 29.27% over the same period. ROE was at 34% TTM, even with the massive correction in 2021. In 2021 alone, it generated enough free cash flow to pay off 88% of&nbsp;<i><b>all</b></i>&nbsp;its debts. No wonder the company has beaten analysts' earnings and revenue expectations consecutively for the past 11 quarters.</p>\n<p>So why did the shares of such a wonderful company decline 59% from its most recent 1-year high to close at $185 on 10 December 2021?</p>\n<p><b>Declining growth led to negative sentiments</b></p>\n<p>Zoom's growth is forecast (see graph below) to decline next year. The company received a consensus analysts EPS forecast of $4.40 for fiscal year 2022, a -9.28% decline from the $4.85 for the current year, after which it is expected to rebound by 11.02% in 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb60390083b30448d3a3788b60d31bc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FAST Graphs</span></p>\n<p>These estimates are very similar to analysts' growth forecast collated by Yahoo! Finance (see table below), which projected a -8.8% decline in 2022.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f5807ea06579b0be1c3f0157b695385\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>To be fair to ZM's management, they had been transparent with their own conservative view of the business prospects. As early January 2021, management cautioned through the annual report that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Renewals of subscriptions to our platform may decline or fluctuate because of several factors, such as dissatisfaction with our products and support, a customer or host no longer having a need for our products, including any new customers or hosts that have subscribed to our services during the COVID-19 pandemic that may subsequently reduce or discontinue their use after the impact of the pandemic has tapered, or the perception that competitive products provide better, more secure, or less expensive options.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:2021 Annual Report</p>\n<p>The stock started trading in a downward channel soon after, despite the next four quarters of earnings beat.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb569118a03f7fd81c70927e340e7c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Finviz.com</span></p>\n<p>Then, on the same day in the month of November 2021, ten analysts dropped ZM's price targets. Bank of America Securities led the charge with a 29.9% price target drop from $385 to $270. And the market reacted with a 16% drop in a single day. The slide continued till it closed at $185 on 10 December.</p>\n<p>To add to the downward pressure, \"smart-money\" has been dumping ZM shares for the past year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9606871f9829cd22d268300694bcd70f\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"255\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's own, using data from Morningstar</span></p>\n<p>Many fund and institutional investors have sold off their ZM shares, and most of these liquidated all or most of their shares.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a6539c35af778bc20c5df5752a2e58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Morningstar</span></p>\n<p>Although there were “smart-money” who purchased shares too, to be clear, there had not been new purchase of ZM shares by most institutional investors from 30 June 2021 onwards. And the few funds that bought ZM shares in the second half of 2021 were predominantly from ARK and T. Rowe.</p>\n<p><b>Zoom dominates the web conferencing market</b></p>\n<p>There are many competing web conference alternatives. In March 2020, ZM was still a small player in the United States with 13.62% of the fragmented web conferencing market. CISCO’s Webex and Microsoft Teams are among the strongest competitors with their own free versions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64512510362e607af7a924d36141382\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>But by October 2020, ZM's share of the US market had surged to the forefront at a massive 38.67%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a8e9c5e22e18a4bc644b915d48feffc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Wallstreetzen</span></p>\n<p>Besides the US, ZM also dominated the global web conferencing market with a whopping 36.2% market share.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f1545c30bafb6aec4f0bf6e7a7fd70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Wallstreetzen</span></p>\n<p>By June 2021, ZM had widened the lead to take over 50% of the market share.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22c5050f93d6a58f1a768abd4ddbb877\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Trustradius</span></p>\n<p>How did the company zoom ahead of much more established companies?</p>\n<p><b>Great products, loved by users, that even competitors need to integrate</b></p>\n<p>ZM has been recognized as a UCaaS leader in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant since 2015.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4f48f75c0ee019d1e9b88221410c3c3\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom</span></p>\n<p>According to the blog cited above, in Gartner's report ZM scored the highest for the Meetings and Service &amp; Support in the Critical Capabilities for UCaaS. Worldwide.</p>\n<p>A check on Android PlayStore confirmed that the ZM apps are well regarded, garnering at least 4 stars.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4ea289d1ff803ee1b4f77f9a222e8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Google Play Store</span></p>\n<p>The company has a whole suite of products that they can upsell to their existing customers, to encourage them to upgrade to more premium offerings, including additional optional products that can be purchased as add-ons.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5651b6b2ae18a630426169d97df14432\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DNA-AV</span></p>\n<p>This is useful for smaller businesses owners who may not want to subscribe to the enterprise account but they want services for ad hoc events. Or there are services that companies can consider adding on after testing zoom for a while. Such services are Audio Conferencing ($100/month), Large Meetings ($50/month), Cloud Storage ($50/month), and premier support packages to encourage upgrades to paid subscriptions. And customers are biting. ZM’s net dollar expansion rate for companies with more than 10 employees in 2021, 2020, and 2019 was above 130%, translating into 14 consecutive quarters of net dollar expansion rate above 130%. This shows that sales to the existing customers grew by 30% from 2020 to 2021. The company's total revenue in the third quarter of 2021 was $1.05 billion, up 35% year over year.</p>\n<p>All the above demonstrates that customers are happy with the products and services, products which the company is continuously striving to improve, expand and enhance. ZM is investing more into R&amp;D to develop better products. R&amp;D expenditure has increased 14 times from $22 million in 2018 almost $300 million in 2021. Zoom is also acquiring businesses with the potential to value-add their existing products, such as&nbsp;the&nbsp;Kites&nbsp;GMBH's&nbsp;Machine Translation Technology that can help \"break down language barriers and making seamless cross-language interaction a reality of everyday life\". I can imagine having a video conference with someone who cannot speak in English but thanks to almost instantaneous and accurate translation of speech-to-text displayed as closed captions, we can still understand each other.</p>\n<p><b>ZM's market dominance gives it a moat</b></p>\n<p>ZM market dominance creates a network effect that forces their competitors like Google Workspace and Microsoft Teams to integrate ZM API into their own video conference interface in order to communicate with their clients who use Zoom. Thus, instead of replacing ZM, competitors have to \"use\" ZM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be819ac1be4a78c1d4b5dcf6350c00f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Zoom App Marketplace</span></p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>Zoom is in great financial state. The company has posted positive and growing EPS from September 2019 till date - up from $0.01 then to $1.11 in October 2021, or an 11,000% increase in 8 quarters. Revenue has risen 532% from $166 million to $1.05 billion in the same period. Its TTM EPS is $3.76 which is even greater than that of companies with larger market caps like UL ($2.33) and PFE ($3.50).</p>\n<p>For the past 12 months, Zoom generated $1.65 billion of free cash flow. That alone is almost enough to pay off 88% of the company's $1.89 billion of total liabilities, not to mention that it is sitting on more than $5.4 billion in cash while generating $395 million in free cash flow just in Q3.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1a3718bf18ed5b635fc8cbeeb054b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Q3 FY22 Earnings Presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>New advertising revenue stream will be the next earnings growth catalyst</b></p>\n<p>ZM has several hundred million users, and has decided to expand into getting&nbsp;advertising revenue&nbsp;from its free account users. With its dominant position both in the US as well as globally, this is the next natural step to take. This is huge, in my opinion. There are many successful companies that adopted a freemium business model to attract users, and after amassing a huge following, start selling advertisements. Facebook, YouTube, Google are among the most profitable businesses on earth that used this model.</p>\n<p>ZM is starting this new revenue stream from a place of strength - it is already a cash flow positive and a consistently profitable company. Its only revenue stream now is centered around its subscription service and that is already highly profitable with gross profit margin of 72.8%. Once this new stream of revenue from advertisement enters its books, ZM will no longer be just a web conferencing platform but also a company that sell advertisements. The additional revenue growth from the advertising business will go a long way to make up for the forecasted decline in EPS growth.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation: ZM is buyable now</b></p>\n<p>Is the ZM stock expensive at $185? After all, with growth expected to decrease in 2022, is ZM still a \"growth\" company that warrants a premium valuation? I will try to value ZM in three ways.</p>\n<p><b>1. Quick-and-dirty Method 1 with PE</b></p>\n<p>This is the first of my back-of-the-napkin, quick-and-dirty valuation approach. Based on the projected full-year earnings of $4.87 in 2021, and assuming a more reasonable PE of 40 for a fast-growing company, a fair price for ZM could be around 40 x $4.87 = $194.80. At the current price of $185, this translates into a small margin of safety. I believe that starting a small position in ZM, say one-tenth the total amount you intend to invest in ZM at the current price is fine.</p>\n<p><b>2. Quick-and-dirty Method 2 with FCF</b></p>\n<p>ZM's market cap as of 10 December 2021 is $55.2 billion. Its latest free-cash-flow TTM is $1.65 billion. Analysts think that ZM will grow 13.58% annually for the next five years. For margin of safety, I assume that the company has 0% growth in 2022, 5% growth in 2023, and 10% growth in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and I arrive at $1.94 billion of average FCF for the next five years. For a rate of return of 10%, a fair value market cap for ZM comes to $19.4 billion. Based on this current market cap, with 293,000 shares outstanding, I reached a fair value of $66. Based on this calculation, ZM is overvalued. However, I do not see the price retreating to 2019 level when EPS has increased 11,000% from $0.01 in Sep 2019 to $1.11 in October 2021.</p>\n<p><b>3. Discounted Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>I used the following assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, free cash flow margin, P/E and P/FCF to derive the possible intrinsic value of ZM.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2ff3879c8dfd0f5f7cbf3ab9af85051\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d371dcfc9735042ec1458e650efe28be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's calculations, using the everythingmoney website</span></p>\n<p>In my most bullish scenario, the intrinsic value of the share is between $209.70 and $289.24. And if the share price drops below $153.28, the price in the most probably mid-range scenario, I will load up the truck to own this money-printing machine. At the current price of $185, I believe that it is possible to initiate a one-tenth position in ZM, leaving some room to dollar-cost-average down if poor sentiments were to continue.</p>\n<p>Two of the three different valuation methods used above suggest that ZM is currently slightly undervalued. However, all the valuation above and analysts' projections that were quoted&nbsp;<i>did not</i>&nbsp;take into consideration three things: the potential catalysts that can propel ZM's growth like the new advertising revenue stream, the development of value-added products from its recent acquisitions that can add value to the company, and last but not least the management's proven ability to beat the odds 100% of the time so far.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I am bullish on ZM not because it is a hyper-growth stock. Sustaining the fast-pace of adoption of the company's services of the past two years cannot be a reasonably expectation for anyone. With the ever-increasing vaccination rates in developed nations and the lesser need for companies in making work-from-home arrangements, it will not be surprising to expect that earnings will decline next year. And at a 50% market share, it is near-impossible for Zoom to keep growing at the same pace as before. What is more important is to examine the business beyond 2022. Analysts expect EPS to grow by around 10-13% for the next 3-5 years, based on estimates taken from all three sources cited above (FAST Graphs, Yahoo! Finance, and Seeking Alpha).</p>\n<p>To summarize, I am bullish because I see ZM as a profitable founder-led company that dominates its core market, has new potential revenue streams, consistent high net dollar expansion rate, and a huge and growing ability to generate more than $1 billion in free cash flow annually, and is able to keep growing EPS at a healthy 10-13% annually for the next 3-5 years. That is a rate of return that I am happy with. Investing with the crowd is the surest way to mediocre results. Just because everyone from retail investors to fund managers to institutional investors are dumping ZM shares, it does not mean that you have to. If anything, this negative sentiment has created an opportunity to own shares of this wonderful business.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom Video Communications: Zoom In To This Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom Video Communications: Zoom In To This Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 13:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nZoom is no longer a hypergrowth stock but is still a profitable business that can grow its earnings at 10-13% annually.\nThe company dominates the web conferencing market that it serves in.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475606-zoom-in-to-this-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170036266","content_text":"Summary\n\nZoom is no longer a hypergrowth stock but is still a profitable business that can grow its earnings at 10-13% annually.\nThe company dominates the web conferencing market that it serves in.\nThe new advertising revenue stream will be a major revenue growth catalyst.\n\nAlistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nDue to overblown fears of declining revenue growth, Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) has fallen 59% from its 1-year high into fair value territory of $185 as of close on Friday, 10 December 2021. Investors and analysts are unable to change their opinion on the company and continue to consider ZM as a hyper-growth stock that has slowed.\nI believe the critical investor should instead reframe his/her view and see Zoom as a company that is dominating 50% of the web conferencing market ahead of rivals like Cisco WebEx (NASDAQ:CSCO), GoToWebinar, and Microsoft Teams (NASDAQ:MSFT). They should see Zoom as a business with high double-digit profit margin that brought in more than $1.65 billion in profits this year, and is capable of sustaining a respectable 13% average growth for the next 3 to 5 years. Further, ZM's potential to bring in a new revenue stream cannot be underestimated. For these reasons, I have a bullish view on the ZM stock. Read more in the sections below.\nCompany Background\nZoom is a video-first communications platform led by founder Mr. Eric Yuan. It is a relatively new company that IPOed in 2019. ZM shares closed at $76.30 on 1 January 2020, when the Coronavirus pandemic had yet to present itself. Exactly 11 months later, fueled by the Covid-induced global lockdown that created a demand for the company's product that allows for easy connectivity between students, families and organizations, ZM's shares rose to a high of $478.36.\nZoom not only became a household name, it also became a verb. From the time the company IPOed 3 years ago, it increased its revenue by 1,645% and its net income by 60,746%. Operating margin improved from 1.87% in 2019 to 27.3% in the TTM period (Q3 FY 2022). Net margin soared from 2.29% to 29.27% over the same period. ROE was at 34% TTM, even with the massive correction in 2021. In 2021 alone, it generated enough free cash flow to pay off 88% of all its debts. No wonder the company has beaten analysts' earnings and revenue expectations consecutively for the past 11 quarters.\nSo why did the shares of such a wonderful company decline 59% from its most recent 1-year high to close at $185 on 10 December 2021?\nDeclining growth led to negative sentiments\nZoom's growth is forecast (see graph below) to decline next year. The company received a consensus analysts EPS forecast of $4.40 for fiscal year 2022, a -9.28% decline from the $4.85 for the current year, after which it is expected to rebound by 11.02% in 2023.\nSource: FAST Graphs\nThese estimates are very similar to analysts' growth forecast collated by Yahoo! Finance (see table below), which projected a -8.8% decline in 2022.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nTo be fair to ZM's management, they had been transparent with their own conservative view of the business prospects. As early January 2021, management cautioned through the annual report that:\n\n Renewals of subscriptions to our platform may decline or fluctuate because of several factors, such as dissatisfaction with our products and support, a customer or host no longer having a need for our products, including any new customers or hosts that have subscribed to our services during the COVID-19 pandemic that may subsequently reduce or discontinue their use after the impact of the pandemic has tapered, or the perception that competitive products provide better, more secure, or less expensive options.\n\nSource:2021 Annual Report\nThe stock started trading in a downward channel soon after, despite the next four quarters of earnings beat.\nSource: Finviz.com\nThen, on the same day in the month of November 2021, ten analysts dropped ZM's price targets. Bank of America Securities led the charge with a 29.9% price target drop from $385 to $270. And the market reacted with a 16% drop in a single day. The slide continued till it closed at $185 on 10 December.\nTo add to the downward pressure, \"smart-money\" has been dumping ZM shares for the past year.\nSource: Author's own, using data from Morningstar\nMany fund and institutional investors have sold off their ZM shares, and most of these liquidated all or most of their shares.\nSource: Morningstar\nAlthough there were “smart-money” who purchased shares too, to be clear, there had not been new purchase of ZM shares by most institutional investors from 30 June 2021 onwards. And the few funds that bought ZM shares in the second half of 2021 were predominantly from ARK and T. Rowe.\nZoom dominates the web conferencing market\nThere are many competing web conference alternatives. In March 2020, ZM was still a small player in the United States with 13.62% of the fragmented web conferencing market. CISCO’s Webex and Microsoft Teams are among the strongest competitors with their own free versions.\nSource: Statista\nBut by October 2020, ZM's share of the US market had surged to the forefront at a massive 38.67%.\nSource: Wallstreetzen\nBesides the US, ZM also dominated the global web conferencing market with a whopping 36.2% market share.\nSource: Wallstreetzen\nBy June 2021, ZM had widened the lead to take over 50% of the market share.\nSource: Trustradius\nHow did the company zoom ahead of much more established companies?\nGreat products, loved by users, that even competitors need to integrate\nZM has been recognized as a UCaaS leader in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant since 2015.\nSource: Zoom\nAccording to the blog cited above, in Gartner's report ZM scored the highest for the Meetings and Service & Support in the Critical Capabilities for UCaaS. Worldwide.\nA check on Android PlayStore confirmed that the ZM apps are well regarded, garnering at least 4 stars.\nSource: Google Play Store\nThe company has a whole suite of products that they can upsell to their existing customers, to encourage them to upgrade to more premium offerings, including additional optional products that can be purchased as add-ons.\nSource: DNA-AV\nThis is useful for smaller businesses owners who may not want to subscribe to the enterprise account but they want services for ad hoc events. Or there are services that companies can consider adding on after testing zoom for a while. Such services are Audio Conferencing ($100/month), Large Meetings ($50/month), Cloud Storage ($50/month), and premier support packages to encourage upgrades to paid subscriptions. And customers are biting. ZM’s net dollar expansion rate for companies with more than 10 employees in 2021, 2020, and 2019 was above 130%, translating into 14 consecutive quarters of net dollar expansion rate above 130%. This shows that sales to the existing customers grew by 30% from 2020 to 2021. The company's total revenue in the third quarter of 2021 was $1.05 billion, up 35% year over year.\nAll the above demonstrates that customers are happy with the products and services, products which the company is continuously striving to improve, expand and enhance. ZM is investing more into R&D to develop better products. R&D expenditure has increased 14 times from $22 million in 2018 almost $300 million in 2021. Zoom is also acquiring businesses with the potential to value-add their existing products, such as the Kites GMBH's Machine Translation Technology that can help \"break down language barriers and making seamless cross-language interaction a reality of everyday life\". I can imagine having a video conference with someone who cannot speak in English but thanks to almost instantaneous and accurate translation of speech-to-text displayed as closed captions, we can still understand each other.\nZM's market dominance gives it a moat\nZM market dominance creates a network effect that forces their competitors like Google Workspace and Microsoft Teams to integrate ZM API into their own video conference interface in order to communicate with their clients who use Zoom. Thus, instead of replacing ZM, competitors have to \"use\" ZM.\nSource: Zoom App Marketplace\nFinancials\nZoom is in great financial state. The company has posted positive and growing EPS from September 2019 till date - up from $0.01 then to $1.11 in October 2021, or an 11,000% increase in 8 quarters. Revenue has risen 532% from $166 million to $1.05 billion in the same period. Its TTM EPS is $3.76 which is even greater than that of companies with larger market caps like UL ($2.33) and PFE ($3.50).\nFor the past 12 months, Zoom generated $1.65 billion of free cash flow. That alone is almost enough to pay off 88% of the company's $1.89 billion of total liabilities, not to mention that it is sitting on more than $5.4 billion in cash while generating $395 million in free cash flow just in Q3.\nSource: Q3 FY22 Earnings Presentation\nNew advertising revenue stream will be the next earnings growth catalyst\nZM has several hundred million users, and has decided to expand into getting advertising revenue from its free account users. With its dominant position both in the US as well as globally, this is the next natural step to take. This is huge, in my opinion. There are many successful companies that adopted a freemium business model to attract users, and after amassing a huge following, start selling advertisements. Facebook, YouTube, Google are among the most profitable businesses on earth that used this model.\nZM is starting this new revenue stream from a place of strength - it is already a cash flow positive and a consistently profitable company. Its only revenue stream now is centered around its subscription service and that is already highly profitable with gross profit margin of 72.8%. Once this new stream of revenue from advertisement enters its books, ZM will no longer be just a web conferencing platform but also a company that sell advertisements. The additional revenue growth from the advertising business will go a long way to make up for the forecasted decline in EPS growth.\nValuation: ZM is buyable now\nIs the ZM stock expensive at $185? After all, with growth expected to decrease in 2022, is ZM still a \"growth\" company that warrants a premium valuation? I will try to value ZM in three ways.\n1. Quick-and-dirty Method 1 with PE\nThis is the first of my back-of-the-napkin, quick-and-dirty valuation approach. Based on the projected full-year earnings of $4.87 in 2021, and assuming a more reasonable PE of 40 for a fast-growing company, a fair price for ZM could be around 40 x $4.87 = $194.80. At the current price of $185, this translates into a small margin of safety. I believe that starting a small position in ZM, say one-tenth the total amount you intend to invest in ZM at the current price is fine.\n2. Quick-and-dirty Method 2 with FCF\nZM's market cap as of 10 December 2021 is $55.2 billion. Its latest free-cash-flow TTM is $1.65 billion. Analysts think that ZM will grow 13.58% annually for the next five years. For margin of safety, I assume that the company has 0% growth in 2022, 5% growth in 2023, and 10% growth in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and I arrive at $1.94 billion of average FCF for the next five years. For a rate of return of 10%, a fair value market cap for ZM comes to $19.4 billion. Based on this current market cap, with 293,000 shares outstanding, I reached a fair value of $66. Based on this calculation, ZM is overvalued. However, I do not see the price retreating to 2019 level when EPS has increased 11,000% from $0.01 in Sep 2019 to $1.11 in October 2021.\n3. Discounted Cash Flow\nI used the following assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, free cash flow margin, P/E and P/FCF to derive the possible intrinsic value of ZM.\n\nSource: Author's calculations, using the everythingmoney website\nIn my most bullish scenario, the intrinsic value of the share is between $209.70 and $289.24. And if the share price drops below $153.28, the price in the most probably mid-range scenario, I will load up the truck to own this money-printing machine. At the current price of $185, I believe that it is possible to initiate a one-tenth position in ZM, leaving some room to dollar-cost-average down if poor sentiments were to continue.\nTwo of the three different valuation methods used above suggest that ZM is currently slightly undervalued. However, all the valuation above and analysts' projections that were quoted did not take into consideration three things: the potential catalysts that can propel ZM's growth like the new advertising revenue stream, the development of value-added products from its recent acquisitions that can add value to the company, and last but not least the management's proven ability to beat the odds 100% of the time so far.\nConclusion\nI am bullish on ZM not because it is a hyper-growth stock. Sustaining the fast-pace of adoption of the company's services of the past two years cannot be a reasonably expectation for anyone. With the ever-increasing vaccination rates in developed nations and the lesser need for companies in making work-from-home arrangements, it will not be surprising to expect that earnings will decline next year. And at a 50% market share, it is near-impossible for Zoom to keep growing at the same pace as before. What is more important is to examine the business beyond 2022. Analysts expect EPS to grow by around 10-13% for the next 3-5 years, based on estimates taken from all three sources cited above (FAST Graphs, Yahoo! Finance, and Seeking Alpha).\nTo summarize, I am bullish because I see ZM as a profitable founder-led company that dominates its core market, has new potential revenue streams, consistent high net dollar expansion rate, and a huge and growing ability to generate more than $1 billion in free cash flow annually, and is able to keep growing EPS at a healthy 10-13% annually for the next 3-5 years. That is a rate of return that I am happy with. Investing with the crowd is the surest way to mediocre results. Just because everyone from retail investors to fund managers to institutional investors are dumping ZM shares, it does not mean that you have to. If anything, this negative sentiment has created an opportunity to own shares of this wonderful business.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}