To The Moon

Ok[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

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通脹數據墨跡了一個月，市場也磨嘰了一個月，多頭和空頭都等急了，鮑威爾也急了，甚至說了加快加息步伐。然後3月加息50基點概率變成了70%，令人歎爲觀止。昨天文章裏提到市場上有兩種看法：超鷹派加息：3月有概率加息50基點鴿派言論：通脹無法迅速下降到2%的話，美聯儲也可以接受3%。市場傾向於2的概率大於1。總體來說今年的共識是更加longer，higher不再提。通脹無法迅速下降成爲共識，但大家覺得加息需要循序漸進，鮑威爾不太可能推翻逐步加息25基點的計劃，而通脹無法迅速下降，那麼美聯儲先接受3%也可以理解。一個冷知識是，通脹2%目標其實沒有任何理論基礎。想必一個沒有任何理論基礎的數據，替換應該也很容易。不過顯然大家都低估了鮑威爾降低通脹的決心，只是兩個月數據連續超出預期，萬萬沒想到他這麼急。那麼顯而易見的推理就是，鮑威爾不僅僅是根據過去兩個月已公佈數據得出結論，而是在得知2月非農數據和CPI數據的基礎上，考慮激進加息。那麼接下來兩週就沒有太大懸念了，週五非農肯定大超預期，下週二CPI肯定也是大超預期。雖然很意外但應該有大批人喜出望外。空頭肯定很高興，橫盤一個月了終於催化劑來了；等回調的多頭也很高興，現在這個價格做多下不手啊。是不是做了兩個月的sell call，感覺終於可以放手空一場了？對不起，結果還是sell call，雖然相比前兩個月是激進版，sell價內call：$蘋果(AAPL)$ 期權成交時股價152，行權價150，sell價內call賣$AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$

Yesterday, Nio released its report in Q4 before the US stock market. Revenue for the fourth quarter was RMB 16.06 billion, missing analysts' expectations of 17.1 billion; adjusted net income was a loss of 5.07 billion, which is significantly higher than analysts' expectations of a loss of 3.2 billion:Nio shares fell 6% in the U.S. and 13% in Hong Kong after the release of the results, hitting a new low since IPO from the Hong Kong stock market.It’s not difficult to predict Nio's performance, as Nio's pain points have been detailed in the previous articl ”LI's market cap exceeds the sum of NIO and XPEV: The winner of the NEV competition in China!” In addition, from the trend of Nio's share price, it is not only weaker than its