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- DanielLau16DanielLau16
  ·2021-06-14
  ?
  Signals of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?
  有分析师表示，美国的真实利率为正时，黄金往往表现不佳，尤其是在真实利率向下的时候，黄金往往能走出一波不错的行情。
  Signals of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?
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- DanielLau16DanielLau16
  ·2021-06-14
  ？
  Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation
  核心结论：①中美最新的通胀数据均超预期上升，但A股和美股均不跌反涨，显示股市对通胀开始脱敏，下半年通胀压力下降。②历史上牛市中指数高点略提前于盈利高点，本轮ROE高点预计在21Q4-22Q1，结合年度
  Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation
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- DanielLau16DanielLau16
  ·2021-06-14
  ？
  The "wealth-creating myth" of Bitcoin is about to collapse!
  比特币又暴跌了！貌似这个已经算不上什么新闻了？好像确实如此，但是这一次和之前的几次都有所不同，前几次的暴跌，大多都与马斯克有关，而这一次则是换了个主角，变成了我们在电影中十分熟悉的FBI。前段时间，
  The "wealth-creating myth" of Bitcoin is about to collapse!
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It can only be said to be a directional indicator.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Signals of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSignals of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0671078c90aba28be5e242e5b75ca4a0\" tg-width=\"1399\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some analysts at Zerohedge believe that when the real interest rate in the United States is positive, gold often performs poorly, especially when the real interest rate is downward, and gold often can get out of a good market.</p><p>The real interest rate here is an inflation-adjusted yield based on the three-month U.S. Treasury Bond yield minus the year-over-year CPI.</p><p>In addition, the real interest rate can't reflect the magnitude of the change. It can only be said to be a directional indicator.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632838\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c307757575ffe3d6ca9295ced646627f","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632838","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143785481","content_text":"有Zerohedge的分析师认为，美国的实际利率为正时，黄金往往表现不佳，尤其是在真实利率向下的时候，黄金往往能走出一波不错的行情。\n这里的真实利率是根据三个月的美国国债收益率减去同比CPI来计算的通胀调整收益率。\n另外，真实利率并不能反映变动的幅度，它只能说是一个方向性指标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184362924,"gmtCreate":1623684993768,"gmtModify":1704208728271,"author":{"id":"3586663217774658","authorId":"3586663217774658","name":"DanielLau16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede1462cf07466236d71548b855c6759","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586663217774658","idStr":"3586663217774658"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184362924","repostId":"1100801009","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100801009","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"侃投资/话人生/广交友","home_visible":1,"media_name":"股市荀策","id":"1012219063","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0945e49df9384880a2a850c7de1463be"},"pubTimestamp":1623648594,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100801009?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100801009","media":"股市荀策","summary":"核心结论：①中美最新的通胀数据均超预期上升，但A股和美股均不跌反涨，显示股市对通胀开始脱敏，下半年通胀压力下降。②历史上牛市中指数高点略提前于盈利高点，本轮ROE高点预计在21Q4-22Q1，结合年度","content":"<p><b>Key conclusions:</b>① The latest inflation data from China and the United States both exceeded expectations, but both A-shares and US stocks rose instead of falling, indicating that the stock market has begun to become desensitized to inflation and inflationary pressures will decrease in the second half of the year. ② Historically, the index peak in a bull market has been slightly earlier than the earnings peak. The ROE peak in this round is expected to be in Q4-Q1 2021. Considering the annual fluctuation pattern, the index is expected to reach a new high for the year. ③ Leading, high-quality companies, represented by the Mao Index, remain a good allocation and should remain true to their principles. Rapid profit growth and in line with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The manufacturing process is surprisingly more flexible.</p><p><b>The stock market is becoming desensitized to inflation.</b></p><p>Recently released figures show that my country's PPI grew by more than 9% year-on-year in May, and the US CPI grew by more than 5% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the previous month and exceeding everyone's expectations. However, the performance of the capital market was quite different from the previous month. This month, A-shares and US stocks rose instead of falling after inflation rose more than expected again. We believe that the time when the stock market was most worried about inflation has passed, and with fundamental support, the A-share index is expected to hit a new high this year.</p><p><b>1. Both A-shares and US stocks have begun to become desensitized to inflation.</b></p><p><b>Concerns about inflation in the stock market are easing marginally.</b>On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the year-on-year PPI growth rate in May was 9%, the third highest reading since the PPI year-on-year growth data was introduced in 1996, second only to the 10% in July 2008 and August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI has continued to exceed expectations. Comparing the actually released data with wind's consensus expectation, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in January this year was 0.3%, while wind's consensus expectation was 0.29%, a difference of 0.01 percentage points. In February, this difference rose to 0.24 percentage points, compared to 1.09/0.59/0.74 percentage points in March and May respectively. During the previous PPI upward cycle (2016-2017), the year-on-year growth rate of PPI also continued to exceed expectations, with the largest error between the actual value and the forecast value at the end of 2016, which was also 1 percentage point. Although the year-on-year growth rate of PPI continues to exceed expectations, concerns about inflation in the stock market are easing marginally. The inflation data for the past three months were released on April 9, May 11, and June 9, all at 9:30 a.m. Observing the intraday chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, it can be seen that the market's reaction to the negative factor of PPI is weakening:</p><p><ul><li>April 9: The March PPI released that day was 4.4%, far exceeding wind's consensus expectation of 1.09 percentage points. The stock market fell unilaterally after the opening, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.5% that day.</p><p></li><li>May 11: The April PPI released that day was 6.8%, exceeding wind's consensus expectation by 0.59 percentage points. The stock market fell after the open, but reversed its decline and rose after 10:30 a.m., with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 1.07% that day.</p><p></li><li>June 9: The May PPI released that day was 9%, exceeding wind's consensus expectation by 0.74 percentage points. However, the stock market opened higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.37% that day.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d43a1b6f87fc189c51f50edfb57acf9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Like A-shares, the US stock market has begun to weaken its reaction to high inflation. Over the past two months, the US CPI has also begun to rise sharply. The year-on-year CPI growth rate was 2.6% in March, 4.2% in April, and rose to 5% in May, the highest growth rate since August 2008. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 1.6% year-on-year in March, jumped to 3% in April, and surged to 3.8% in May, a new high since 1992. However, the stock market's reaction to inflation data has been muted. On the day the data was released on May 12, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by more than 2%. However, after the CPI was released on June 10, the aforementioned indices rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f2b782e453c8f7333af5d89de462a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflationary pressures will decline in the second half of the year.</b>In fact, the inflationary pressure this year is not as great as it seems. The 9% year-on-year PPI growth rate in May seems very high, but it largely stems from the low base in the same period last year. After excluding the base effect, the two-year annualized growth rate is actually only 2.5%. Looking back at the two inflation cycles of 2006-08 and 2009-11, the year-on-year upward cycle of my country's PPI in that month lasted an average of about two years. The initial rise in PPI was mainly due to ample liquidity, while the continued rise in inflation in the later period was due to improved fundamentals. This round of PPI rebounded year-on-year from a low of -3.7% in May 2020, and has been going on for about a year now. In terms of time and space, the first wave of price increases driven by liquidity may have come to an end. Wind consensus forecasts indicate that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will gradually decline in the second half of the year, with the annualized growth rate over the two years being around 1.5%.</p><p>When will the second wave of inflation rise arrive? We believe it may not be until the first half of next year. Drawing on 2009-2011, when economies around the world recovered strongly from the crisis and were basically synchronized, there was only a break of more than half a year between the first and second waves of commodity price increases. That is, the first wave of price increases lasted from the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2010, while the second wave of price increases began in Q3 2010. The global economy, impacted by the pandemic, has gone through the same process of \"crisis → monetary easing → recovery\" as in 2009-11. However, due to different epidemic prevention and control measures in different countries and virus mutation, the economic recovery of various countries in the post-pandemic era has been slow and asynchronous. Therefore, the rest period after the first wave of commodity price increases may be longer than in 2009-11. This time, my country has the best epidemic prevention measures and the fastest recovery. In 20 years, my country has been the only country in the world to achieve positive GDP growth. The epidemic prevention policies of developed countries such as the United States are not as effective as those of my country, and the pace of recovery is slightly behind. GDP growth in 2020 was negative, but the World Bank expects the two-year annualized growth rate of US GDP to roughly return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Due to lagging pandemic prevention policies and recurring outbreaks in most emerging market countries, the World Bank predicts that the annualized GDP growth rate will only be around 0% in 2020-2021, and that economic growth may not truly begin to pick up until 2022 and beyond. This misalignment in the current recovery has prolonged the current global recovery, so inflationary pressures in the second phase may not materialize until the first half of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4aff9cdd327f629ac9684a72efd2db\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4c14a26cc2f8af3541518dd20b86c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The key to the future trend of A-shares lies in profitability.</b></p><p><b>The peak of a bull market is more closely related to the peak of earnings.</b>Now that the phase of greatest concern about inflation is about to pass, what are the main contradictions this year? We believe we should return to the fundamentals. Looking back at history, the peak of a bull market is more correlated with the peak of corporate profitability, as can be seen in the year-on-year growth rate of net profit and the ROE indicator. Because the year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit is often affected by base factors, the year-on-year high point of A-share net profit in a single quarter is often inconsistent with the high point of the stock market index. This is because the low base leads to large fluctuations in year-on-year growth rate. If we smooth it out to two years, we find that the annualized year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit in the past two years is more consistent with the index high. In addition, ROE is strongly correlated with the index high. Specifically, during the bull market from May 6th to July 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 peaked on July 10th, while the year-on-year high of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 414% in Q4 2006. In the past two years, the annualized year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 192% in Q4 2007, and the peak of ROE of all A-shares was in Q4 2007. During the bull market from August 10th to 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3478 points in August 2009, and then began to fluctuate at a high level until October 11th, after which it began to decline. The SME Composite Index reached its peak on October 11th, while the year-on-year high of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 560% in Q4 2009. In the past two years, the annualized year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 207% in Q4 2010, and the ROE peak was in Q4 2010. The ROE peak of the SME Composite Index also appeared in Q4 2010. During the bull market from December 12 to June 15, the ChiNext index began a structural bull market. The peak of the annualized year-on-year growth rate (ROE) of the ChiNext index in a single quarter occurred in Q4 2015. However, due to deleveraging factors such as the investigation of margin trading, the ChiNext index reached a peak in June 2015. Catalyzed by positive performance, the ChiNext index rebounded significantly in Q4 2015.</p><p><b>The peak of this earnings cycle is expected to be in Q4 2021-Q1 2022.</b>First, judging from the temporal and spatial patterns of historical profit cycles, the current profit cycle has not yet ended. In terms of time, in terms of the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company or ROE, A-shares have experienced five complete profit cycles since 2002, with each cycle lasting an average of 39 months, of which the upward cycle lasts an average of 6-7 quarters. If we look at the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company in this round of profit cycle, it bottomed out in Q1 2020, began to rebound in Q2 2020, and only rebounded for 4 quarters by Q1 2021. If we look at ROE (TTM), it bottomed out in Q2 2020 and started to rebound in Q3. This has only lasted for three quarters so far, and the time has not yet run out. Based on the time calculation, we expect the peak of this profit cycle to be in Q4-Q1 2021. In terms of space, the two-year annualized growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company for all A-shares in Q1 2021 was only 8%, which is equivalent to the level of Q2 2017. There is still a lot of room for growth compared to the 16% compound annual growth rate of Q2 2018. The ROE of all A-shares in Q1 2021 was 9.2%, which is equivalent to the level of 2019 and Q1 2017, and there is still a lot of room for growth.</p><p>In terms of specific forecasts, our forecasting method is to infer the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company and the corresponding ROE of A-shares for the whole year based on the proportion of profit in the first quarter to the whole year. First, since asset impairment losses, including goodwill, are mainly reflected in the financial statements in the fourth quarter of each year, we need to make up for these losses to analyze the proportion of profit before impairment losses in each quarter. This new calculation of profit is similar to the concept of EBIT. The proportion of profit before impairment losses in the four quarters of the year is approximately 20%, 25%, 25%, and 30%. This proportion has been very stable except for 2008/2009/2020. Therefore, we can roughly predict the growth rate for the whole year by dividing the profit before impairment losses in Q1 2021 by the proportion in the first quarter. Based on this, we need to further predict the impact of asset impairment losses on quarterly profits in the fourth quarter. Looking back at history, we can see that the scale of asset impairment losses starting in 2018 was enormous, exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2018, nearly 500 billion yuan in 2019, and falling back to 400 billion yuan in 2020, which is roughly equivalent to the profit in a single quarter. In 2018, due to domestic deleveraging coupled with the Sino-US trade friction, many companies made large provisions for goodwill impairment losses. At the micro level, due to poor performance that year, listed companies were motivated to further lower their performance that year in order to boost their performance the following year. The same logic should appear in 2020. After all, many companies suffered losses last year, and companies can take advantage of the impact of the pandemic to release negative factors in their financial statements. However, we see that the overall impairment losses last year were less than those in 2019, which may mean that there may not be as many potential assets that can be used for impairment (such as goodwill). Therefore, regarding this year's impairment loss forecast, we conservatively estimate that this year's amount will be equal to last year's amount. We calculate that the net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company of all A shares this year will be more than 30%, corresponding to a two-year annualized growth rate of 17+%. Excluding financial and oil companies, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-shares is expected to be over 45%, with an annualized growth rate of 30+% over two years. The actual growth rate announced in the future may exceed expectations due to the error of asset impairment losses. Based on this, we expect the total A-share ROE (TTM) for the three quarters of Q2-Q4 2021 to be 8.8-9.0%, 9.0-9.2%, and 9.5-9.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bada807b63fd2b6fbecd9e29e18bcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef2b3b099ac8377c86ca2a384acf06f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Coping strategy: Go with the flow</b></p><p><b>A-shares are expected to hit new highs this year.</b>As the most worrying phase of inflation passes, profitability will become the main driver of the market, and we predict that corporate profits will continue to rise this year. At the beginning of 2019, we proposed that the Shanghai Composite Index at 2440 points on January 4, 2019, was the starting point of this bull market, which was expected to last for three years. At the same time, we proposed that the bull market has three stages, each with different driving forces and characteristics. 2019 was the incubation period of this bull market driven by funding. In 2020, the market entered a bull market explosion driven by both fundamentals and funding. In 2021, the market is expected to enter a bubble period driven by fundamentals and sentiment. We currently believe that profitability is still in an upward cycle; In terms of sentiment, we track sentiment from three dimensions: PE/PB, asset class price ratios, and trading indicators. Currently, market sentiment is around 60-65 degrees. Regarding liquidity, we believe that monetary policy is likely to remain reasonably ample and liquidity neutral this year. Therefore, overall, the bull market outlook remains unchanged and the bull market is not over yet. Statistics show the annual fluctuations of major A-share indices between 2000 and 2020 (the increase in the highest price relative to the lowest price within the year). Taking the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 as examples, the annual fluctuations are generally around 25%-30%. During bull or bear markets, the fluctuations are slightly higher than 60%. So far this year (as of June 14, 2021, the same below), the fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 are only 12% and 21%, respectively. The low point of the Shanghai Composite Index this year was 3328 points on March 9, the CSI 300 was 4883 points on March 25, and the Wind All A Index was 5071 points on March 9. If the previous low point is valid, then referring to the fluctuation range of historical stock indices, the market is expected to hit a new high this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/977d2db1af801ea34b7b77b1f0797f0a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of market capitalization structure, it maintains integrity while maintaining an unconventional approach, and in terms of industry structure, it is</b>Since 2016, both individual stocks and funds in the A-share market have exhibited a Matthew effect. In terms of individual stocks, we measure the dispersion of individual stock price fluctuations using the absolute value of the standard deviation/mean of the annual price fluctuations of individual stocks. From 2000 to 2015, the average dispersion of A-share stock price fluctuations was 1.9, while from 2016 to the present (as of 21/06/14, the same below) it has rapidly expanded to 3.9. In terms of funds, the average dispersion of fund net asset value changes has increased from 0.68 from 2006 to 2015 to 0.98 from 2016 to the present. Furthermore, the trend of fund size concentrating towards the top is very significant, with the top 10% of funds currently accounting for 60% of the total fund size. The underlying reasons are the implementation of the registration system in A-shares and the accelerating institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares. This Matthew effect will continue to strengthen in the future, similar to the US stock market after the 1990s. This is an important factor that cannot be ignored when carrying out market capitalization structure and industry structure layout.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b8377aa8411262d7bb3e0aa5ba2674\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of market capitalization structure, it adheres to the principles but is unconventional. Based on total market capitalization, we divide A-shares into three tiers: \"over 80 billion yuan/20-80 billion yuan/under 20 billion yuan\". The number of stocks in these three tiers accounts for 4%/13%/83%, and the market capitalization accounts for 44%/27%/29%, respectively. The first tier, represented by the Moutai Index, consists of super-large market capitalization groups, which are high-quality leaders in various industries and still have investment value, namely, \"upholding integrity\". Judging from the earnings-to-valuation ratio and the allocation preferences of new funds, the mid-to-large-cap stocks in the second tier this year offer better value for money, which is what is called \"surprising\". We believe that the sharp decline in the Moutai Index after the Spring Festival is merely a self-correction of cost-effectiveness. Currently, the Moutai Index is showing a trend towards US stocks, and the constituent stocks of the Moutai Index account for 47.7% of northbound capital holdings. Drawing on the characteristics of US stock market trends, this year may be in a period of wide fluctuations. With the pandemic under control and the post-pandemic economy gradually getting back on track, the relative advantages of super-large-cap stocks, represented by the Moutai Index, in terms of fundamentals will not be as extreme as they were last year. We estimate that the annualized growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of super-large-cap companies in Q1 2021 is 15%. The current PE (TTM, overall approach, the same below) is 30 times, the total market capitalization (20-80 billion yuan) is 19% and 28 times respectively, and the small market capitalization (below 20 billion yuan) is 6% and 50 times. The performance of mid-to-large-cap stocks has improved significantly. For details, please refer to \"The Worried Way Out for the Mao Index - 20210426\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5b8e653ec1477016e48ffb83db9cac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the industry, intelligent manufacturing is expected to become a new main theme. From an industry perspective, the most prominent of the aforementioned second tier (20-80 billion yuan) are industries related to intelligent manufacturing. There are three reasons for emphasizing intelligent manufacturing: First, the fundamentals of intelligent manufacturing are stronger. The gradual application of technologies such as 5G and new energy is driving the growth of intelligent manufacturing performance; The pandemic has led to a restructuring of the global manufacturing industry chain, with Chinese manufacturing seizing the opportunity to upgrade. During periods of mild inflation, manufacturing profits expanded. Second, policies support the rapid rise of intelligent manufacturing. The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system. Third, institutions, represented by funds, do not have a high allocation to intelligent manufacturing. In Q1 2021, the intelligent manufacturing sector accounted for only 26.6% of the fund's top holdings, compared to a high of 32.3% in Q2 2020, indicating that it is still slightly underweight. For details, please refer to the previous reports \"The Pandemic Accelerates the Upgrading of Made in China - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 1-20210319\", \"Intelligent Manufacturing in China is Moving to the Forefront of the World - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 2-20210402\", \"Looking at the Prospects of Intelligent Manufacturing from the Technology Clock - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 3-20210414\", \"Moderate Inflation Benefits Profit Expansion in the Manufacturing Industry - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 4-20210429\", \"Intelligent Manufacturing in China: Both Intelligence and Courage, Creating the Future - 20210511\", and \"Key Sub-areas of Intelligent Manufacturing - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 5-20210528\". Following the main theme of \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing\", Haitong Strategy has collaborated with the industry to identify investment opportunities in intelligent manufacturing-related fields. See Table 2 for details on the specific targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b2519eefe59f94c4525d08fbeb40b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff79edef1d8e1b39efffeb27c1b0163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>Inflation continues to rise sharply, and the investment clock has entered a period of stagflation ahead of schedule.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012219063\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/0945e49df9384880a2a850c7de1463be);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">股市荀策 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key conclusions:</b>① The latest inflation data from China and the United States both exceeded expectations, but both A-shares and US stocks rose instead of falling, indicating that the stock market has begun to become desensitized to inflation and inflationary pressures will decrease in the second half of the year. ② Historically, the index peak in a bull market has been slightly earlier than the earnings peak. The ROE peak in this round is expected to be in Q4-Q1 2021. Considering the annual fluctuation pattern, the index is expected to reach a new high for the year. ③ Leading, high-quality companies, represented by the Mao Index, remain a good allocation and should remain true to their principles. Rapid profit growth and in line with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The manufacturing process is surprisingly more flexible.</p><p><b>The stock market is becoming desensitized to inflation.</b></p><p>Recently released figures show that my country's PPI grew by more than 9% year-on-year in May, and the US CPI grew by more than 5% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the previous month and exceeding everyone's expectations. However, the performance of the capital market was quite different from the previous month. This month, A-shares and US stocks rose instead of falling after inflation rose more than expected again. We believe that the time when the stock market was most worried about inflation has passed, and with fundamental support, the A-share index is expected to hit a new high this year.</p><p><b>1. Both A-shares and US stocks have begun to become desensitized to inflation.</b></p><p><b>Concerns about inflation in the stock market are easing marginally.</b>On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the year-on-year PPI growth rate in May was 9%, the third highest reading since the PPI year-on-year growth data was introduced in 1996, second only to the 10% in July 2008 and August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI has continued to exceed expectations. Comparing the actually released data with wind's consensus expectation, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in January this year was 0.3%, while wind's consensus expectation was 0.29%, a difference of 0.01 percentage points. In February, this difference rose to 0.24 percentage points, compared to 1.09/0.59/0.74 percentage points in March and May respectively. During the previous PPI upward cycle (2016-2017), the year-on-year growth rate of PPI also continued to exceed expectations, with the largest error between the actual value and the forecast value at the end of 2016, which was also 1 percentage point. Although the year-on-year growth rate of PPI continues to exceed expectations, concerns about inflation in the stock market are easing marginally. The inflation data for the past three months were released on April 9, May 11, and June 9, all at 9:30 a.m. Observing the intraday chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, it can be seen that the market's reaction to the negative factor of PPI is weakening:</p><p><ul><li>April 9: The March PPI released that day was 4.4%, far exceeding wind's consensus expectation of 1.09 percentage points. The stock market fell unilaterally after the opening, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.5% that day.</p><p></li><li>May 11: The April PPI released that day was 6.8%, exceeding wind's consensus expectation by 0.59 percentage points. The stock market fell after the open, but reversed its decline and rose after 10:30 a.m., with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 1.07% that day.</p><p></li><li>June 9: The May PPI released that day was 9%, exceeding wind's consensus expectation by 0.74 percentage points. However, the stock market opened higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.37% that day.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d43a1b6f87fc189c51f50edfb57acf9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Like A-shares, the US stock market has begun to weaken its reaction to high inflation. Over the past two months, the US CPI has also begun to rise sharply. The year-on-year CPI growth rate was 2.6% in March, 4.2% in April, and rose to 5% in May, the highest growth rate since August 2008. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 1.6% year-on-year in March, jumped to 3% in April, and surged to 3.8% in May, a new high since 1992. However, the stock market's reaction to inflation data has been muted. On the day the data was released on May 12, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by more than 2%. However, after the CPI was released on June 10, the aforementioned indices rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f2b782e453c8f7333af5d89de462a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflationary pressures will decline in the second half of the year.</b>In fact, the inflationary pressure this year is not as great as it seems. The 9% year-on-year PPI growth rate in May seems very high, but it largely stems from the low base in the same period last year. After excluding the base effect, the two-year annualized growth rate is actually only 2.5%. Looking back at the two inflation cycles of 2006-08 and 2009-11, the year-on-year upward cycle of my country's PPI in that month lasted an average of about two years. The initial rise in PPI was mainly due to ample liquidity, while the continued rise in inflation in the later period was due to improved fundamentals. This round of PPI rebounded year-on-year from a low of -3.7% in May 2020, and has been going on for about a year now. In terms of time and space, the first wave of price increases driven by liquidity may have come to an end. Wind consensus forecasts indicate that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will gradually decline in the second half of the year, with the annualized growth rate over the two years being around 1.5%.</p><p>When will the second wave of inflation rise arrive? We believe it may not be until the first half of next year. Drawing on 2009-2011, when economies around the world recovered strongly from the crisis and were basically synchronized, there was only a break of more than half a year between the first and second waves of commodity price increases. That is, the first wave of price increases lasted from the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2010, while the second wave of price increases began in Q3 2010. The global economy, impacted by the pandemic, has gone through the same process of \"crisis → monetary easing → recovery\" as in 2009-11. However, due to different epidemic prevention and control measures in different countries and virus mutation, the economic recovery of various countries in the post-pandemic era has been slow and asynchronous. Therefore, the rest period after the first wave of commodity price increases may be longer than in 2009-11. This time, my country has the best epidemic prevention measures and the fastest recovery. In 20 years, my country has been the only country in the world to achieve positive GDP growth. The epidemic prevention policies of developed countries such as the United States are not as effective as those of my country, and the pace of recovery is slightly behind. GDP growth in 2020 was negative, but the World Bank expects the two-year annualized growth rate of US GDP to roughly return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Due to lagging pandemic prevention policies and recurring outbreaks in most emerging market countries, the World Bank predicts that the annualized GDP growth rate will only be around 0% in 2020-2021, and that economic growth may not truly begin to pick up until 2022 and beyond. This misalignment in the current recovery has prolonged the current global recovery, so inflationary pressures in the second phase may not materialize until the first half of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4aff9cdd327f629ac9684a72efd2db\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4c14a26cc2f8af3541518dd20b86c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The key to the future trend of A-shares lies in profitability.</b></p><p><b>The peak of a bull market is more closely related to the peak of earnings.</b>Now that the phase of greatest concern about inflation is about to pass, what are the main contradictions this year? We believe we should return to the fundamentals. Looking back at history, the peak of a bull market is more correlated with the peak of corporate profitability, as can be seen in the year-on-year growth rate of net profit and the ROE indicator. Because the year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit is often affected by base factors, the year-on-year high point of A-share net profit in a single quarter is often inconsistent with the high point of the stock market index. This is because the low base leads to large fluctuations in year-on-year growth rate. If we smooth it out to two years, we find that the annualized year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit in the past two years is more consistent with the index high. In addition, ROE is strongly correlated with the index high. Specifically, during the bull market from May 6th to July 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 peaked on July 10th, while the year-on-year high of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 414% in Q4 2006. In the past two years, the annualized year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 192% in Q4 2007, and the peak of ROE of all A-shares was in Q4 2007. During the bull market from August 10th to 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3478 points in August 2009, and then began to fluctuate at a high level until October 11th, after which it began to decline. The SME Composite Index reached its peak on October 11th, while the year-on-year high of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 560% in Q4 2009. In the past two years, the annualized year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit in a single quarter was 207% in Q4 2010, and the ROE peak was in Q4 2010. The ROE peak of the SME Composite Index also appeared in Q4 2010. During the bull market from December 12 to June 15, the ChiNext index began a structural bull market. The peak of the annualized year-on-year growth rate (ROE) of the ChiNext index in a single quarter occurred in Q4 2015. However, due to deleveraging factors such as the investigation of margin trading, the ChiNext index reached a peak in June 2015. Catalyzed by positive performance, the ChiNext index rebounded significantly in Q4 2015.</p><p><b>The peak of this earnings cycle is expected to be in Q4 2021-Q1 2022.</b>First, judging from the temporal and spatial patterns of historical profit cycles, the current profit cycle has not yet ended. In terms of time, in terms of the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company or ROE, A-shares have experienced five complete profit cycles since 2002, with each cycle lasting an average of 39 months, of which the upward cycle lasts an average of 6-7 quarters. If we look at the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company in this round of profit cycle, it bottomed out in Q1 2020, began to rebound in Q2 2020, and only rebounded for 4 quarters by Q1 2021. If we look at ROE (TTM), it bottomed out in Q2 2020 and started to rebound in Q3. This has only lasted for three quarters so far, and the time has not yet run out. Based on the time calculation, we expect the peak of this profit cycle to be in Q4-Q1 2021. In terms of space, the two-year annualized growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company for all A-shares in Q1 2021 was only 8%, which is equivalent to the level of Q2 2017. There is still a lot of room for growth compared to the 16% compound annual growth rate of Q2 2018. The ROE of all A-shares in Q1 2021 was 9.2%, which is equivalent to the level of 2019 and Q1 2017, and there is still a lot of room for growth.</p><p>In terms of specific forecasts, our forecasting method is to infer the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company and the corresponding ROE of A-shares for the whole year based on the proportion of profit in the first quarter to the whole year. First, since asset impairment losses, including goodwill, are mainly reflected in the financial statements in the fourth quarter of each year, we need to make up for these losses to analyze the proportion of profit before impairment losses in each quarter. This new calculation of profit is similar to the concept of EBIT. The proportion of profit before impairment losses in the four quarters of the year is approximately 20%, 25%, 25%, and 30%. This proportion has been very stable except for 2008/2009/2020. Therefore, we can roughly predict the growth rate for the whole year by dividing the profit before impairment losses in Q1 2021 by the proportion in the first quarter. Based on this, we need to further predict the impact of asset impairment losses on quarterly profits in the fourth quarter. Looking back at history, we can see that the scale of asset impairment losses starting in 2018 was enormous, exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2018, nearly 500 billion yuan in 2019, and falling back to 400 billion yuan in 2020, which is roughly equivalent to the profit in a single quarter. In 2018, due to domestic deleveraging coupled with the Sino-US trade friction, many companies made large provisions for goodwill impairment losses. At the micro level, due to poor performance that year, listed companies were motivated to further lower their performance that year in order to boost their performance the following year. The same logic should appear in 2020. After all, many companies suffered losses last year, and companies can take advantage of the impact of the pandemic to release negative factors in their financial statements. However, we see that the overall impairment losses last year were less than those in 2019, which may mean that there may not be as many potential assets that can be used for impairment (such as goodwill). Therefore, regarding this year's impairment loss forecast, we conservatively estimate that this year's amount will be equal to last year's amount. We calculate that the net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company of all A shares this year will be more than 30%, corresponding to a two-year annualized growth rate of 17+%. Excluding financial and oil companies, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-shares is expected to be over 45%, with an annualized growth rate of 30+% over two years. The actual growth rate announced in the future may exceed expectations due to the error of asset impairment losses. Based on this, we expect the total A-share ROE (TTM) for the three quarters of Q2-Q4 2021 to be 8.8-9.0%, 9.0-9.2%, and 9.5-9.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bada807b63fd2b6fbecd9e29e18bcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef2b3b099ac8377c86ca2a384acf06f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Coping strategy: Go with the flow</b></p><p><b>A-shares are expected to hit new highs this year.</b>As the most worrying phase of inflation passes, profitability will become the main driver of the market, and we predict that corporate profits will continue to rise this year. At the beginning of 2019, we proposed that the Shanghai Composite Index at 2440 points on January 4, 2019, was the starting point of this bull market, which was expected to last for three years. At the same time, we proposed that the bull market has three stages, each with different driving forces and characteristics. 2019 was the incubation period of this bull market driven by funding. In 2020, the market entered a bull market explosion driven by both fundamentals and funding. In 2021, the market is expected to enter a bubble period driven by fundamentals and sentiment. We currently believe that profitability is still in an upward cycle; In terms of sentiment, we track sentiment from three dimensions: PE/PB, asset class price ratios, and trading indicators. Currently, market sentiment is around 60-65 degrees. Regarding liquidity, we believe that monetary policy is likely to remain reasonably ample and liquidity neutral this year. Therefore, overall, the bull market outlook remains unchanged and the bull market is not over yet. Statistics show the annual fluctuations of major A-share indices between 2000 and 2020 (the increase in the highest price relative to the lowest price within the year). Taking the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 as examples, the annual fluctuations are generally around 25%-30%. During bull or bear markets, the fluctuations are slightly higher than 60%. So far this year (as of June 14, 2021, the same below), the fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 are only 12% and 21%, respectively. The low point of the Shanghai Composite Index this year was 3328 points on March 9, the CSI 300 was 4883 points on March 25, and the Wind All A Index was 5071 points on March 9. If the previous low point is valid, then referring to the fluctuation range of historical stock indices, the market is expected to hit a new high this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/977d2db1af801ea34b7b77b1f0797f0a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of market capitalization structure, it maintains integrity while maintaining an unconventional approach, and in terms of industry structure, it is</b>Since 2016, both individual stocks and funds in the A-share market have exhibited a Matthew effect. In terms of individual stocks, we measure the dispersion of individual stock price fluctuations using the absolute value of the standard deviation/mean of the annual price fluctuations of individual stocks. From 2000 to 2015, the average dispersion of A-share stock price fluctuations was 1.9, while from 2016 to the present (as of 21/06/14, the same below) it has rapidly expanded to 3.9. In terms of funds, the average dispersion of fund net asset value changes has increased from 0.68 from 2006 to 2015 to 0.98 from 2016 to the present. Furthermore, the trend of fund size concentrating towards the top is very significant, with the top 10% of funds currently accounting for 60% of the total fund size. The underlying reasons are the implementation of the registration system in A-shares and the accelerating institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares. This Matthew effect will continue to strengthen in the future, similar to the US stock market after the 1990s. This is an important factor that cannot be ignored when carrying out market capitalization structure and industry structure layout.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b8377aa8411262d7bb3e0aa5ba2674\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of market capitalization structure, it adheres to the principles but is unconventional. Based on total market capitalization, we divide A-shares into three tiers: \"over 80 billion yuan/20-80 billion yuan/under 20 billion yuan\". The number of stocks in these three tiers accounts for 4%/13%/83%, and the market capitalization accounts for 44%/27%/29%, respectively. The first tier, represented by the Moutai Index, consists of super-large market capitalization groups, which are high-quality leaders in various industries and still have investment value, namely, \"upholding integrity\". Judging from the earnings-to-valuation ratio and the allocation preferences of new funds, the mid-to-large-cap stocks in the second tier this year offer better value for money, which is what is called \"surprising\". We believe that the sharp decline in the Moutai Index after the Spring Festival is merely a self-correction of cost-effectiveness. Currently, the Moutai Index is showing a trend towards US stocks, and the constituent stocks of the Moutai Index account for 47.7% of northbound capital holdings. Drawing on the characteristics of US stock market trends, this year may be in a period of wide fluctuations. With the pandemic under control and the post-pandemic economy gradually getting back on track, the relative advantages of super-large-cap stocks, represented by the Moutai Index, in terms of fundamentals will not be as extreme as they were last year. We estimate that the annualized growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of super-large-cap companies in Q1 2021 is 15%. The current PE (TTM, overall approach, the same below) is 30 times, the total market capitalization (20-80 billion yuan) is 19% and 28 times respectively, and the small market capitalization (below 20 billion yuan) is 6% and 50 times. The performance of mid-to-large-cap stocks has improved significantly. For details, please refer to \"The Worried Way Out for the Mao Index - 20210426\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5b8e653ec1477016e48ffb83db9cac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the industry, intelligent manufacturing is expected to become a new main theme. From an industry perspective, the most prominent of the aforementioned second tier (20-80 billion yuan) are industries related to intelligent manufacturing. There are three reasons for emphasizing intelligent manufacturing: First, the fundamentals of intelligent manufacturing are stronger. The gradual application of technologies such as 5G and new energy is driving the growth of intelligent manufacturing performance; The pandemic has led to a restructuring of the global manufacturing industry chain, with Chinese manufacturing seizing the opportunity to upgrade. During periods of mild inflation, manufacturing profits expanded. Second, policies support the rapid rise of intelligent manufacturing. The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system. Third, institutions, represented by funds, do not have a high allocation to intelligent manufacturing. In Q1 2021, the intelligent manufacturing sector accounted for only 26.6% of the fund's top holdings, compared to a high of 32.3% in Q2 2020, indicating that it is still slightly underweight. For details, please refer to the previous reports \"The Pandemic Accelerates the Upgrading of Made in China - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 1-20210319\", \"Intelligent Manufacturing in China is Moving to the Forefront of the World - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 2-20210402\", \"Looking at the Prospects of Intelligent Manufacturing from the Technology Clock - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 3-20210414\", \"Moderate Inflation Benefits Profit Expansion in the Manufacturing Industry - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 4-20210429\", \"Intelligent Manufacturing in China: Both Intelligence and Courage, Creating the Future - 20210511\", and \"Key Sub-areas of Intelligent Manufacturing - Intelligent Manufacturing in China Series 5-20210528\". Following the main theme of \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing\", Haitong Strategy has collaborated with the industry to identify investment opportunities in intelligent manufacturing-related fields. See Table 2 for details on the specific targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b2519eefe59f94c4525d08fbeb40b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff79edef1d8e1b39efffeb27c1b0163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>Inflation continues to rise sharply, and the investment clock has entered a period of stagflation ahead of schedule.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100801009","content_text":"核心结论：①中美最新的通胀数据均超预期上升，但A股和美股均不跌反涨，显示股市对通胀开始脱敏，下半年通胀压力下降。②历史上牛市中指数高点略提前于盈利高点，本轮ROE高点预计在21Q4-22Q1，结合年度振幅规律，指数有望创年内新高。③以茅指数为代表的龙头优质公司仍是较好配置，守正。盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造更有弹性，出奇。\n股市对通胀开始脱敏\n近期公布的我国5月PPI同比增速破9%，美国CPI同比增速破5%，均较前一个月大幅上升且超出大家的预期。但是资本市场的表现却和前一个月大相径庭，这个月A股和美股在通胀再次超预期上升后不跌反涨。我们认为股市对通胀最担忧的时间已经过去，基本面支持下A股指数年内有望创新高。\n1.A股和美股均对通胀开始脱敏\n股市对通胀的担忧正边际减缓。6月9日，国家统计局公布的5月PPI同比增速为9%，为PPI同比增速数据1996年诞生以来第三高的读数，仅次于08年7月和08年8月的10%。今年以来，PPI同比增速不断超预期，我们以实际公布的数据与wind一致预期相比，今年1月PPI同比增速为0.3%，wind一致预期为0.29%，相差0.01个百分点，而2月这一差值就上升至0.24个百分点，3-5月分别为1.09/0.59/0.74个百分点。在上一轮PPI上升周期（16-17年）中，PPI同比增速也是不断超预期，实际值与预测值最大的误差在16年底，也是1个百分点。虽然PPI的同比增速依旧在不断超预期，但是股市对通胀的担忧正边际减缓。过去三个月通胀数据公布的日期分别为4月9日、5月11日和6月9日，时间均为早上9点半。观察上证综指的分时图，可以发现市场对PPI这一负面因素的反应正在钝化：\n\n4月9日：当日公布的3月PPI为4.4%，大超wind一致预期1.09个百分点，股市在开盘后便单边下跌，收盘时上证综指当日下跌0.5%；\n5月11日：当日公布的4月PPI为6.8%，超过wind一致预期0.59个百分点，股市在开盘后下跌，10点半之后由跌转涨，收盘时上证综指当日上涨1.07%\n6月9日：当日公布的5月PPI为9%，超过wind一致预期0.74个百分点，然而股市在开盘反而上涨，至收盘时上证综指当日涨幅为0.37%。\n\n\n美股和A股一样，对高通胀的反应也开始钝化。过去两个月，美国的CPI也开始大幅上升，3月CPI同比增速为2.6%，4月为4.2%，5月已经上升到了5%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增速3月时还是1.6%，4月就跳升到了3%，5月则大涨3.8%，增速创1992年以来新高。但股市对通胀数据的反应则在钝化，5月12日公布数据当天，标普500和纳斯达克指数均大跌超过2%，但是这次6月10日公布CPI后，前述指数均小幅上涨，标普500涨0.5%，纳斯达克指数涨0.8%。\n\n下半年通胀压力下降。其实今年通胀压力本身并没有看上去那么大，5月PPI同比9%的增速看似很高，但是很大程度上源自去年同期的低基数，剔除基数效应后的两年年化增速实际只有2.5%。回顾2006-08年和2009-11年两轮通胀周期，我国PPI当月同比上行周期平均持续两年左右，前期PPI上行主要源于流动性充裕，而后期通胀继续上行得益于基本面改善。本轮PPI当月同比从20年5月低点-3.7%见底开始回升，至今已经持续了1年左右。从时间和空间上看，流动性驱动第一波涨价潮可能告一段落，Wind一致预期显示，下半年PPI同比增速将逐渐回落，两年年化增速大约在1.5%附近。\n那第二波通胀上涨何时来临？我们认为可能要到明年上半年。借鉴09-11年，当时全球各经济体从危机中的复苏强劲且基本同步，因此大宗商品的第一波和第二波上涨之间只休息了半年多，即第一波上涨从08年底开始持续到10年初，第二波上涨则是从10Q3开始。这次疫情冲击下的全球经济和09-11年一样同样经历了“危机→放水→复苏”的过程，但由于各国疫情防控措施不同以及病毒变异，后疫情时代各国经济复苏缓慢且不同步，因此大宗商品第一波上涨之后的休息时间可能会比09-11年更长。这一次我国防疫措施最好、复苏最快，20年我国是全球唯一实现GDP正增长的国家。美国等发达国家防疫政策有效性不及我国，复苏节奏略落后，2020年GDP增速是负数，但世界银行预计2021年美国GDP的两年年化增速大致能回到疫情前的水平。而大部分新兴市场国家由于防疫政策落后和疫情反复，世界银行预计20-21年GDP两年年化增速仅在0%左右，经济增速真正开始上升可能要等到2022年及之后。当前这种复苏的错位使得本轮全球复苏时间拖得更长，因此第二阶段的通胀压力可能要等明年上半年才体现出来。\n\n2.A股未来走势关键看盈利\n牛市高点与盈利高点更加相关。既然对通胀最担忧的阶段即将过去，那今年的主要矛盾是什么？我们认为还是回归基本面。回顾历史，牛市高点与企业盈利的高点相关性更强，具体可以看净利润同比增速和ROE指标。因为A股净利润同比增速常受到基期因素扰动，所以A股单季度净利同比高点和股市指数高点往往不一致，这源于低基数导致同比增速波动大，如果平滑到两年发现，近两年单季度净利润年化同比增速与指数高点较一致，此外，ROE跟指数高点相关性强。具体而言：05/6-07/10牛市期间，上证指数和沪深300高点在07/10，而A股单季度净利同比高点为06Q4的414%，近两年A股单季度净利年化同比增速高点为07Q4的192%，全部A股ROE高点在07Q4。08/10-10/11牛市期间，上证指数在09年8月达到高点3478点，此后开始高位震荡至10/11，随后开始下行，中小板指在10/11达到高点，而A股单季度净利同比高点为09Q4的560%，近两年A股单季度净利年化同比增速高点为10Q4的207%，ROE高点在10Q4，中小板指ROE高点也出现于10Q4。12/12-15/06牛市期间，创业板开始结构性牛市，创业板指单季度净利润年化同比增速ROE高点出现在15Q4，但由于清查配资等去杠杆因素，创业板指在15/06出现高点，在业绩向好的催化下，15Q4创业板指反弹幅度显著。\n预计本轮盈利周期高点在21Q4-22Q1。首先，从历史盈利周期的时空规律上看，本轮盈利周期尚未走完。时间上，以A股归母净利润累计同比增速或ROE刻画，2002年以来A股已经经历了五轮完整的盈利周期，每轮周期平均持续39个月，其中上行周期平均持续6-7个季度，本轮盈利周期若看A股归母净利累计同比增速，20Q1见底，20Q2开始回升，至21Q1只回升了4个季度；若看ROE（TTM），20Q2见底、Q3开始回升，至今只持续了3个季度，时间都没走完，按照时间推算，本轮盈利周期高点我们预计在21Q4-22Q1。空间上，21Q1全A归母净利润两年年化增速只有8%，相当于17Q2的水平，相比18Q2的16%复合增速还有很大空间，21Q1全部A股ROE为9.2%，相当于2019年和17Q1的水平，也还有很大的空间。\n具体预测上，我们的预测方法是按照一季度的利润占全年的比重来推测A股今年全年的归母净利润增速和对应的ROE。首先，由于包括商誉在内的资产减值损失主要体现在每年四季度的报表中，我们需要把这部分的损失补回去来分析减值损失前的利润在各个季度的占比，这个新口径的利润类似EBIT的概念。这个减值损失前的利润在全年四个季度的占比大约是20%、25%、25%、30%，这一占比在除了2008/2009/2020年之外均非常稳定，因此以21Q1的减值损失前利润除以一季度的占比我们可以大概预测出全年的增速。在这一基础上，我们需要进一步预测资产减值损失对四季度单季度利润的影响。回顾历史，我们可以发现18年起资产减值损失的规模非常大，18年3000+亿元，19年近5000亿，20年回落至4000+亿，与单季度的利润量基本相当。18年由于国内去杠杆叠加中美贸易摩擦，当年许多企业大量计提商誉减值损失，即在微观层面上，由于当年业绩过差，上市公司有动力进一步做低当年的业绩来拉高次年的业绩。同样的逻辑理应出现在2020年，毕竟去年许多企业亏损，企业可以借疫情冲击释放报表中的负面因素，然而我们看到去年整体的减值损失还不及2019年，或许意味着潜在的可以用来减值的资产可能没有那么多了（比如商誉）。因此对于今年的减值损失预测，我们保守地预计今年的量等于去年的量，测算得今年全A归母净利润增速30%以上，对应两年年化增速17+%；剔除金融两油后，全部A股归母净利润同比增速预计45%以上，两年年化增速30+%，未来公布的实际增速可能因资产减值损失这一误差项而向上超预期。以此为基础，我们预计21Q2-Q4三个季度对应的全部A股ROE（TTM）分别为8.8-9.0%、9.0-9.2%和9.5-9.7%。\n\n3.应对策略：顺势而为\nA股年内有望创新高。随着通胀最担忧的阶段过去，盈利将成为市场主要的驱动力，而我们判断今年企业盈利还将向上。我们在19年初就提出，19年1月4日上证综指2440点为本轮牛市起点，本轮牛市有望持续三年，同时我们提出牛市有三个阶段，驱动力、特征各不相同。本轮牛市19年为由资金面驱动的牛市孕育期，20年市场进入了基本面和资金面双轮驱动的牛市爆发期，21年市场有望进入由基本面和情绪面驱动的泡沫期。目前我们判断盈利还在上升周期；情绪方面，我们从PE/PB、大类资产比价和交易指标三个维度跟踪情绪，目前市场情绪大约60-65度；流动性方面我们认为今年货币政策大概率保持合理充裕，流动性中性，因此综合来看，牛市大格局未变，牛市尚未走完。统计A股各主要股指在2000-2020年间每一年的振幅（年内最高价相对最低价的涨幅），以上证综指、沪深300为例，年振幅基本都在25%-30%附近，牛市或熊市时振幅会略高于60%，今年至今（截至20210614，下同）上证综指/沪深300振幅仅12%/21%。今年上证综指的低点是3月9日的3328点，沪深300在3月25日的4883点，万得全A在3月9日的5071点，如果前期低点有效，那参考历史股指的波动幅度，今年市场有望创新高。\n\n市值结构上守正出奇，行业结构上布局智能制造。2016年起A股中个股和基金均呈现出马太效应。个股上，我们以每年个股涨跌幅的标准差/均值的绝对值来度量个股涨跌幅离散度，2000-15年A股个股涨跌幅离散度均值为1.9，而2016年至今（截至21/06/14，下同）快速扩大至3.9。基金上，基金净值变化离散度均值从2006-2015年的0.68上升至2016年至今的0.98。并且基金规模向头部集中的趋势非常显著，目前规模前10%的基金占全部基金规模的比重达到了60%。背后的原因是A股实行注册制以及A股机构化+国际化不断加速，而未来这种马太效应将继续强化，类似1990年代后的美股，这是在进行市值结构和行业结构布局时不可忽视的重要因素。\n\n市值结构上，守正出奇。我们根据总市值将A股分为“800亿以上/200-800亿/200亿以下”三个梯队，三个梯队个股数量占比分别为4%/13%/83%，市值占比为44%/27%/29%。第一梯队以茅指数为代表的超大市值组，是各个行业的优质龙头，仍然具有配置价值，即“守正”。从盈利估值比、新基金配置偏好看，今年第二梯队的中大盘性价比更优，所谓“出奇”。春节后茅指数大幅下跌我们认为只是性价比的自我修正，当前茅指数已有美股化趋势，在北上资金持仓中，茅指数成分股占比也达47.7%，借鉴美股走势形态特征，今年或处在宽幅震荡之中。随着疫情得到控制，后疫情时代经济逐渐步入正轨，以茅指数为代表的超大盘股在基本面上的相对优势不会像去年那么极致，我们测算超大市值公司21Q1归母净利润两年年化增速为15%，当前PE（TTM，整体法，下同）为30倍，中大市值（总市值200-800亿）分别为19%、28倍，小市值（200亿以下）为6%、50倍，中大市值个股业绩改善较为明显。详见《茅指数忧虑的出路-20210426》。\n\n行业上，智能制造有望成为新主线。从行业层面来看，前述第二梯队（200-800亿）中最为凸显就是智能制造相关行业。重视智能制造逻辑有三：第一，智能制造基本面更强。5G和新能源等技术逐渐应用，推动智能制造业绩增长；疫情导致全球制造业产业链重构，中国制造乘势升级；温和通胀阶段，制造业盈利扩张。第二，政策支持智能制造快速崛起。十四五规划重在构建现代产业体系。第三，基金为代表的机构对智能制造配置不高。21Q1基金重仓股中智能制造类行业占比仅26.6%，而20Q2的高点为32.3%，目前仍略微低配。详见前期报告《疫情加快中国制造升级——中国智造系列1-20210319》、《中国智造正走向世界前列——中国智造系列2-20210402》、《从科技时钟看智能制造前景——中国智造系列3-20210414》、《温和通胀利于制造业盈利扩张——中国智造系列4-20210429》、《中国智造：智勇兼备，造就未来-20210511》、《智能制造的重点子领域——中国智造系列5-20210528》。沿着“中国智能制造”的主线，海通策略联合行业梳理了智能制造相关领域投资机会，具体标的详见表2。\n\n风险提示：通胀继续大幅上行，投资时钟提前进入滞胀期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184368544,"gmtCreate":1623684928588,"gmtModify":1704208726010,"author":{"id":"3586663217774658","authorId":"3586663217774658","name":"DanielLau16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede1462cf07466236d71548b855c6759","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586663217774658","idStr":"3586663217774658"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184368544","repostId":"1141192934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141192934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623654209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141192934?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:03","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The \"wealth-creating myth\" of Bitcoin is about to collapse!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141192934","media":"雷科技","summary":"比特币又暴跌了！貌似这个已经算不上什么新闻了？好像确实如此，但是这一次和之前的几次都有所不同，前几次的暴跌，大多都与马斯克有关，而这一次则是换了个主角，变成了我们在电影中十分熟悉的FBI。\n前段时间，","content":"<p>Bitcoin has plummeted again! It seems this isn't news anymore? That seems to be the case, but this time is different from the previous ones. The previous crashes were mostly related to Musk, but this time the protagonist has changed, becoming the FBI, which we are very familiar with in the movie.</p><p>Recently, a hacker group from Russia attacked and damaged the control system of the largest oil pipeline company in the western United States, forcing the company to suspend oil transportation to most of the western region. The U.S. government even declared a national emergency as a result. In order to restore oil supply as soon as possible,<b>Ultimately, Colonial Pipeline was forced to pay the hacker group approximately $5 million worth of Bitcoin in exchange for control of its systems.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a093754346578e6b5d1c4b26fa952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just before the hacker group transferred the ransom, the FBI successfully found the wallet key where the ransom was stored and transferred most of the Bitcoin to the official account, recovering nearly half of the loss. Why nearly half? Because of the impact of currency prices, the total price of the recycled Bitcoin is already far lower than the price previously paid.</p><p>The successful recovery of Bitcoin transactions, which were touted as untraceable and completely decentralized, directly caused another volatility in the Bitcoin market.<b>Some say this proves that Bitcoin' so-called decentralization is actually a hoax, while others say the end of Bitcoin has come. So what is the truth?</b></p><p><b>How did the FBI get Bitcoin back?</b></p><p>In its report, the FBI stated that the Bitcoin recovered represented approximately 80% of the amount paid, while the remaining 20% could not be recovered for other reasons. However, this is good news for the extorted companies. Moreover, the FBI's recovery operation has once again shattered the myth of money laundering in Bitcoin, making people realize that Bitcoin transactions are, to some extent, traceable and traceable.</p><p>However, the FBI's process of recovering Bitcoin may be different from what people think. Xiao Lei noticed that many people believe that the FBI directly cracked Bitcoin' encryption algorithm to take Bitcoin away from his wallet, but this is not actually the case.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69800b429ca8b06f1f57122c01e62e0b\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At least for now, the FBI cannot directly crack the Bitcoin wallet because the Bitcoin wallet uses the SHA256 algorithm, which is one of the mainstream encryption algorithms. The SHA256 algorithm is not only used by Bitcoin; most major banks and financial institutions around the world use similar algorithms to encrypt their networks and systems.</p><p><b>If the algorithm is cracked, then what we should be worried about is not Bitcoin, but whether the global financial system will collapse overnight.</b>Moreover, the SHA256 algorithm itself is almost impossible to crack. Even with the most advanced supercomputers, it would be impossible to crack the algorithm. Even quantum computers, which are hailed as next-generation computers, would find it difficult to play a role when faced with the SHA256 algorithm.</p><p>Therefore, the FBI's pursuit of Bitcoin actually relied on its control over server companies in the United States and its understanding of the internet. Moreover, this hacker group that launched attacks on multiple companies was indeed overly careless to some extent.<b>According to a report released by the FBI, the ability to recover Bitcoin was, to some extent, due to a significant element of luck.</b></p><p>As everyone knows, similar ransoms and black money generally require a series of operations to be laundered before being withdrawn, whether it is real currency or virtual currency. Even Bitcoin, which claims to be decentralized, makes public announcements during transactions. If the source of Bitcoin is not concealed, it can easily be traced to the withdrawal address and directly approached.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863273f359ae01accb09f65f558655f1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a hacking group that has committed dozens of crimes, Dark Side is also laundering the Bitcoin it has obtained through a series of private and public wallets, among which public wallets belonging to the FBI are hidden. When the Dark Side members transferred the ransom to the wallet, they were discovered by FBI agents who had been monitoring the wallet's situation. After obtaining a judge's permission, they quickly used the wallet's private key to transfer the Bitcoin to another wallet controlled by the government.</p><p>Of course, it is estimated that the Bitcoin were discovered by the Dark Side during the transfer process, so in the end, not all of it could be transferred; instead, only 80% was recovered.<b>Moreover, because prices in Bitcoin have been steadily declining over the past period, the amount successfully recovered has been less than $2.5 million.</b></p><p>Some readers may still be confused, so Xiao Lei will give another example. A group of robbers robbed a box of gold from a bank and wanted to exchange the gold for legally circulating money. So they started moving between different locations, trying to make it impossible for others to distinguish the origin of the box of gold.</p><p>The whole process went smoothly in the early stages, until they entered a seemingly large bar. As soon as they entered, they found a group of people standing inside, and at the same time, they heard the sound of the entrance and exit being locked, followed by another sound:<b>FBI, You are surrounded.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440004c62d535ee1d38ae10eca1b5e81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, the whole process does not actually involve hacker attack and defense or cyber confrontation. It is just a simple process of a blind cat stumbling upon a dead mouse. The hacker himself walked into a trap set by the FBI, which led to the recovery of the ransom. However, the above is just speculation based on the report released by the FBI, and the actual operation process is probably far less simple than what Xiao Lei said. Moreover, the FBI is unwilling to release the specific process because they still need to use it to deal with the next hacker group's attack.</p><p>At least for now, Bitcoin itself is still safe, but if you want to withdraw money or launder money after obtaining Bitcoin rights, you will face numerous obstacles. For example, the global ransomware that attracted much attention a few years ago, many of the Bitcoin ransoms obtained by the virus's creators still cannot be withdrawn and have been strictly monitored by the government.</p><p><b>Bitcoin is safe</b></p><p><b>Why did it still cause prices to plummet?</b></p><p>So, Bitcoin is safe? So why did Bitcoin still plummet? First of all, prices in Bitcoin have actually been quite unstable recently.<b>Even the slightest disturbance can lead to a sharp drop or a sharp rise.</b>However, this sharp drop was indeed influenced by the news that the FBI had recovered the ransom from Bitcoin.</p><p>Although many people view Bitcoin as a pure investment, many investors, companies, or organizations secretly purchase it as a currency to avoid being tracked by real financial institutions. These institutions may then sell their Bitcoin due to panic or other reasons. The decline in cryptocurrency prices then triggered a sell-off by other scattered investors and institutions, ultimately causing the price of Bitcoin to drop significantly.</p><p>Moreover, there were recent rumors that Musk was considering selling...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Although the Bitcoin held have little impact on the market due to the lack of substantial action, their subsequent power has been demonstrated by the upheaval caused by news related to the FBI.</p><p>Furthermore, most Bitcoin investors are not actually familiar with Bitcoin itself, so panic selling is quite normal when such major negative news comes out.</p><p>In fact, for most Bitcoin traders, transactions conducted through exchanges are basically open and transparent, and exchanges can easily find information about both parties.<b>This is why, after China tightened its regulations on cryptocurrencies some time ago, many traders had their bank accounts frozen because they involved black money in their transactions.</b></p><p>What's even more interesting is that when Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, designed Bitcoin, while endowing it with features such as decentralization, he also endowed it with the characteristic of public transactions. All Bitcoin transactions between blocks are broadcast, which is equivalent to putting all transaction information in the open, making private transactions impossible (unless the entire wallet is directly traded).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34933b8430a8f2455534d939a5850daa\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Over the past few years, intelligence officers and criminal police around the world have been able to apprehend many wanted criminals who had been at large, such as the operator of the well-known deep-web trading platform \"Silk Road,\" by following the disclosure of Bitcoin transactions. The holder information hidden by Bitcoin is actually quite vulnerable to national powers around the world. Those who believe that cryptocurrencies are unregulated can basically rest assured.</p><p>In fact, this incident is less about proving the traceability of Bitcoin and more about once again demonstrating the instability of the cryptocurrency market.<b>Even a seemingly plausible piece of news could trigger a new crash. For financial institutions, the cryptocurrency market is an even easier place to harvest \"retail investors\" than the stock market.</b></p>","source":"lsy1582507589608","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"wealth-creating myth\" of Bitcoin is about to collapse!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"wealth-creating myth\" of Bitcoin is about to collapse!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雷科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin has plummeted again! It seems this isn't news anymore? That seems to be the case, but this time is different from the previous ones. The previous crashes were mostly related to Musk, but this time the protagonist has changed, becoming the FBI, which we are very familiar with in the movie.</p><p>Recently, a hacker group from Russia attacked and damaged the control system of the largest oil pipeline company in the western United States, forcing the company to suspend oil transportation to most of the western region. The U.S. government even declared a national emergency as a result. In order to restore oil supply as soon as possible,<b>Ultimately, Colonial Pipeline was forced to pay the hacker group approximately $5 million worth of Bitcoin in exchange for control of its systems.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a093754346578e6b5d1c4b26fa952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just before the hacker group transferred the ransom, the FBI successfully found the wallet key where the ransom was stored and transferred most of the Bitcoin to the official account, recovering nearly half of the loss. Why nearly half? Because of the impact of currency prices, the total price of the recycled Bitcoin is already far lower than the price previously paid.</p><p>The successful recovery of Bitcoin transactions, which were touted as untraceable and completely decentralized, directly caused another volatility in the Bitcoin market.<b>Some say this proves that Bitcoin' so-called decentralization is actually a hoax, while others say the end of Bitcoin has come. So what is the truth?</b></p><p><b>How did the FBI get Bitcoin back?</b></p><p>In its report, the FBI stated that the Bitcoin recovered represented approximately 80% of the amount paid, while the remaining 20% could not be recovered for other reasons. However, this is good news for the extorted companies. Moreover, the FBI's recovery operation has once again shattered the myth of money laundering in Bitcoin, making people realize that Bitcoin transactions are, to some extent, traceable and traceable.</p><p>However, the FBI's process of recovering Bitcoin may be different from what people think. Xiao Lei noticed that many people believe that the FBI directly cracked Bitcoin' encryption algorithm to take Bitcoin away from his wallet, but this is not actually the case.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69800b429ca8b06f1f57122c01e62e0b\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At least for now, the FBI cannot directly crack the Bitcoin wallet because the Bitcoin wallet uses the SHA256 algorithm, which is one of the mainstream encryption algorithms. The SHA256 algorithm is not only used by Bitcoin; most major banks and financial institutions around the world use similar algorithms to encrypt their networks and systems.</p><p><b>If the algorithm is cracked, then what we should be worried about is not Bitcoin, but whether the global financial system will collapse overnight.</b>Moreover, the SHA256 algorithm itself is almost impossible to crack. Even with the most advanced supercomputers, it would be impossible to crack the algorithm. Even quantum computers, which are hailed as next-generation computers, would find it difficult to play a role when faced with the SHA256 algorithm.</p><p>Therefore, the FBI's pursuit of Bitcoin actually relied on its control over server companies in the United States and its understanding of the internet. Moreover, this hacker group that launched attacks on multiple companies was indeed overly careless to some extent.<b>According to a report released by the FBI, the ability to recover Bitcoin was, to some extent, due to a significant element of luck.</b></p><p>As everyone knows, similar ransoms and black money generally require a series of operations to be laundered before being withdrawn, whether it is real currency or virtual currency. Even Bitcoin, which claims to be decentralized, makes public announcements during transactions. If the source of Bitcoin is not concealed, it can easily be traced to the withdrawal address and directly approached.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863273f359ae01accb09f65f558655f1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a hacking group that has committed dozens of crimes, Dark Side is also laundering the Bitcoin it has obtained through a series of private and public wallets, among which public wallets belonging to the FBI are hidden. When the Dark Side members transferred the ransom to the wallet, they were discovered by FBI agents who had been monitoring the wallet's situation. After obtaining a judge's permission, they quickly used the wallet's private key to transfer the Bitcoin to another wallet controlled by the government.</p><p>Of course, it is estimated that the Bitcoin were discovered by the Dark Side during the transfer process, so in the end, not all of it could be transferred; instead, only 80% was recovered.<b>Moreover, because prices in Bitcoin have been steadily declining over the past period, the amount successfully recovered has been less than $2.5 million.</b></p><p>Some readers may still be confused, so Xiao Lei will give another example. A group of robbers robbed a box of gold from a bank and wanted to exchange the gold for legally circulating money. So they started moving between different locations, trying to make it impossible for others to distinguish the origin of the box of gold.</p><p>The whole process went smoothly in the early stages, until they entered a seemingly large bar. As soon as they entered, they found a group of people standing inside, and at the same time, they heard the sound of the entrance and exit being locked, followed by another sound:<b>FBI, You are surrounded.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440004c62d535ee1d38ae10eca1b5e81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, the whole process does not actually involve hacker attack and defense or cyber confrontation. It is just a simple process of a blind cat stumbling upon a dead mouse. The hacker himself walked into a trap set by the FBI, which led to the recovery of the ransom. However, the above is just speculation based on the report released by the FBI, and the actual operation process is probably far less simple than what Xiao Lei said. Moreover, the FBI is unwilling to release the specific process because they still need to use it to deal with the next hacker group's attack.</p><p>At least for now, Bitcoin itself is still safe, but if you want to withdraw money or launder money after obtaining Bitcoin rights, you will face numerous obstacles. For example, the global ransomware that attracted much attention a few years ago, many of the Bitcoin ransoms obtained by the virus's creators still cannot be withdrawn and have been strictly monitored by the government.</p><p><b>Bitcoin is safe</b></p><p><b>Why did it still cause prices to plummet?</b></p><p>So, Bitcoin is safe? So why did Bitcoin still plummet? First of all, prices in Bitcoin have actually been quite unstable recently.<b>Even the slightest disturbance can lead to a sharp drop or a sharp rise.</b>However, this sharp drop was indeed influenced by the news that the FBI had recovered the ransom from Bitcoin.</p><p>Although many people view Bitcoin as a pure investment, many investors, companies, or organizations secretly purchase it as a currency to avoid being tracked by real financial institutions. These institutions may then sell their Bitcoin due to panic or other reasons. The decline in cryptocurrency prices then triggered a sell-off by other scattered investors and institutions, ultimately causing the price of Bitcoin to drop significantly.</p><p>Moreover, there were recent rumors that Musk was considering selling...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Although the Bitcoin held have little impact on the market due to the lack of substantial action, their subsequent power has been demonstrated by the upheaval caused by news related to the FBI.</p><p>Furthermore, most Bitcoin investors are not actually familiar with Bitcoin itself, so panic selling is quite normal when such major negative news comes out.</p><p>In fact, for most Bitcoin traders, transactions conducted through exchanges are basically open and transparent, and exchanges can easily find information about both parties.<b>This is why, after China tightened its regulations on cryptocurrencies some time ago, many traders had their bank accounts frozen because they involved black money in their transactions.</b></p><p>What's even more interesting is that when Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, designed Bitcoin, while endowing it with features such as decentralization, he also endowed it with the characteristic of public transactions. All Bitcoin transactions between blocks are broadcast, which is equivalent to putting all transaction information in the open, making private transactions impossible (unless the entire wallet is directly traded).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34933b8430a8f2455534d939a5850daa\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Over the past few years, intelligence officers and criminal police around the world have been able to apprehend many wanted criminals who had been at large, such as the operator of the well-known deep-web trading platform \"Silk Road,\" by following the disclosure of Bitcoin transactions. The holder information hidden by Bitcoin is actually quite vulnerable to national powers around the world. Those who believe that cryptocurrencies are unregulated can basically rest assured.</p><p>In fact, this incident is less about proving the traceability of Bitcoin and more about once again demonstrating the instability of the cryptocurrency market.<b>Even a seemingly plausible piece of news could trigger a new crash. For financial institutions, the cryptocurrency market is an even easier place to harvest \"retail investors\" than the stock market.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KtaLGm2E85nm_5XZq1jScw\">雷科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fe7ef419cfbaaf95ccd6157b232e24","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KtaLGm2E85nm_5XZq1jScw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141192934","content_text":"比特币又暴跌了！貌似这个已经算不上什么新闻了？好像确实如此，但是这一次和之前的几次都有所不同，前几次的暴跌，大多都与马斯克有关，而这一次则是换了个主角，变成了我们在电影中十分熟悉的FBI。\n前段时间，一个来自俄罗斯的黑客组织攻击并破坏了美国西部最大的石油管道公司的控制系统，导致该公司被迫暂停大部分西部地区的石油输送，美国政府甚至因此宣布国家进入紧急状态。为了尽快恢复石油供应，最终殖民管道公司被迫向黑客组织支付了价值约500万美元的比特币，以此换回了自己的系统控制权。\n\n但是，就在黑客组织转移赎金前，FBI就成功找到了存放赎金的钱包密钥，将其中的大部分比特币转移到了官方账号上，挽回了近半的损失。为什么是近半？因为受币价影响，回收的比特币总价已经远低于之前支付的价格。\n号称无法追踪、完全去中心化的比特币交易被成功追回，直接造成了比特币市场的又一次震荡，有人说这证明了比特币所谓的去中心化其实就是一个骗局，有人说比特币的末日到了，那么真相到底是什么呢？\nFBI是如何追回比特币的？\nFBI在报告会中提到，此次追回的比特币约为支付数量的80%，剩余的20%则因为其它原因而暂时无法追回，不过，对于被勒索的公司来说，已经是一个很好的消息。而且，FBI此次的追回行动也再一次打破了比特币的洗钱神话，让人意识到比特币的交易在某种程度上是可溯源、可追踪的。\n不过，FBI追回比特币的过程可能与大家想得不太一样，小雷注意到不少人认为，FBI是直接破解了比特币的加密算法，从而把钱包中的比特币提走，实际上并非如此。\n\n至少就目前而言，FBI是无法直接破解比特币钱包的，因为比特币钱包采用的SHA256算法是目前的主流加密算法之一，SHA256算法不仅仅是比特币在使用，世界上的主要银行和金融机构大多都使用类似算法对网络和系统进行加密。\n如果该算法被破解，那么我们该担心的其实不是比特币，而是全球金融体系是否在一夜之间崩溃。而且，SHA256算法本身就几乎无法破解，想要破解该算法即使以目前最先进的超级计算机来运算也不可能实现，即使是被誉为下一代计算机的量子计算机，在面对SHA256算法时也是很难起到作用。\n所以，FBI追回比特币实际上依靠的是自己对美国境内服务器公司的掌控以及互联网的了解，而且，这个对多家公司发动攻击的黑客组织，在某种程度上来说也确实是过于大意。因为根据FBI公布的报告来看，此次能够追回比特币，某种程度上来说也是有着不小的运气成分。\n大家都知道，像类似的赎金、黑钱，基本上都需要通过一系列的操作将其洗白后再取出，不管是现实中的货币还是虚拟币，皆是如此。即使是号称去中心化的比特币，在交易的时候也会对外进行广播，如果不对比特币的来源进行遮掩，那么很轻松就会被追踪到提现的地址，直接被找上门。\n\n作为一个已经作案数十次的黑客组织，Dark Side也在通过一系列的私有与公有钱包洗白此次获得的比特币，而在这些钱包中就隐藏了属于FBI的公有钱包。当Dark Side的人将赎金转入该钱包时，就被一直盯控钱包状况的FBI特工发现，在取得法官许可后迅速依靠钱包的私钥将这部分比特币转入到了政府掌握的另一个钱包中。\n当然，估计在转移的过程中也是被Dark Side的人发现，所以最终没能将全部比特币进行转移，而是仅回收了80%，而且因为在过去一段时间里比特币的价格一直在稳步下跌，所以成功回收的金额尚不足250万美元。\n有的读者可能依然是一头雾水，所以小雷再举个例子，一伙劫匪抢了银行的一箱子黄金，然后想要把黄金换成可以合法流通的钱，于是他们开始在各个据点之间转移，想让别人无法分清楚这箱黄金的来源。\n整个流程的前期都很顺利，直到他们进了一间看似不小的酒吧，刚走进去，发现里面站着一群人，同时出入口还传来了上锁的声音，接着传来一个声音：FBI，You are surrounded。\n\n所以，整个过程其实并不涉及什么黑客攻防、网络对抗，就是一个瞎猫撞见死老鼠的简单过程，黑客自己走进了FBI布下的陷阱，从而导致赎金被追回。不过，以上只是根据FBI公布的报告所进行的猜测，而实际的操作流程应该远不如小雷说的这么简单，而且FBI也不愿意公布具体的流程，因为他们还需要以此来对付下一个黑客团体的攻击。\n至少，目前比特币本身还是安全的，但是在获得比特币后想要提现、洗白等操作的话，将会面临重重阻截。比如前几年备受瞩目的全球勒索病毒，该病毒制作者所获得的比特币赎金至今仍有不少无法取出，一直被政府严格监控。\n比特币是安全的\n 为什么仍然导致价格暴跌？\n这么说来，比特币就是安全的了？那么比特币为什么还是暴跌？首先，比特币的价格最近其实一直都不太稳定，只要稍微有些风吹草动就可能导致暴跌或暴涨。不过，本次也确实是受美国FBI追回比特币赎金的消息影响而出现的暴跌。\n虽然不少人都将比特币视为一种纯粹的投资，但是还是有不少的投资者、企业或组织暗地里将其作为一种规避现实金融机构追踪的货币来购买。这部分机构在此之后或因恐慌、或因其它目的，都有可能会出售掉自己的比特币，币价的下挫继而就引发了其余零散投资者和机构的抛售，最后让比特币的价格大幅度下降。\n而且，前段时间有传闻称马斯克在考虑出售特斯拉所持有的比特币，虽然因为没有实质行动而对市场影响不大，但是随着FBI相关新闻所带来的震荡，也是展现了其后续的威力。\n再者，大多数的比特币投资者对于比特币本身其实并不了解，所以在传出类似的重大不利好消息时，恐慌抛售也就是一件很正常的事情了。\n实际上对于大多数的比特币交易者来说，只要是通过交易所进行的交易，基本上就是公开透明的，交易所方面可以轻松找到交易双方的信息。这也是为什么前段时间国内收紧了虚拟币的监管后，不少交易者因为交易中涉及黑钱而导致银行账户被冻结。\n更有意思的是，比特币的创造者中本聪在设计比特币的时候，虽然赋予了其去中心化等特性，但是也同时赋予了其交易公开化的特征，所有区块间的比特币交易都会进行广播，相当于将一切交易信息都摆在了阳光下，让私下交易成为一件不可能的事情（除非直接交易整个钱包）。\n\n在过去数年里，全球的情报人员及刑警，就是依照比特币的交易公开化，追捕到了不少一直逍遥法外的通缉犯，比如著名的深网交易平台“丝绸之路”的运营者。比特币所隐藏的持有者信息，对于遍布全球的国家力量来说，实质上也是挺脆弱的，认为虚拟币不受监管的朋友基本上可以歇歇了。\n实际上，这次事件与其说是证明了比特币的可追踪性，不如说是再一次证明了虚拟币市场的不稳定性，仅仅是一个似是而非的消息，就可能带来一轮新的暴跌，对于各个金融机构来说，虚拟币市场是一个比股市还好收割“韭菜”的地方。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"CAN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}