In my opinion 3 of these scenarios, viz. Gold breaking above $5,000, U.S. equities hitting new highs & Repeated Fed policy reversals, are base-case forecasts - at least looking at the ssituation prevailing now. And the other 2, viz. Al bubble bursting & above all "nothing happens" are ideally black-swan eventualities. While these may happen, their impact will be as serious.
Historical data suggests that the market tends to continue its upward momentum in Jan' after a positive Dec'. Also a positive Jan also historically leads to above-average returns for the full year. Given the historical calendar effects, one might be tempted to consider going long. However, past performance is never a guarantee of future results. And now let us come to the golden dictum: DON'T TRY TO TIME THE MARKET. Timing the market is inherently risky, and a long-term, disciplined approach is always more effective than focusing solely on seasonal patterns.
Strong demand, analyst ratings & recent positive price movement have pushed the sentiment for NVDA to bullish. This suggests it is a potential buy-the-dip moment for long-term investors rather than a "sell-the-news" scenario. So, while there could be a gap up opening, it is unlikely to be a sell the news.
Trend since 1950 suggests an approximate 77% chance of +ve return during the santa claus rally - basically the last 5 trading days of Dec & first 2 of Jan & the S&P 500 tends to show an average 1.3% gain. So, yes I hope the positive trend continues 😀 I plan to focus on quality like always and pick any blue-chips with potential. One fad I want to consciously stay away from is bottom fishing.