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JackLPT

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- JackLPTJackLPT
  ·2021-06-30
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  A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.
  第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。 2021年最主要的故事是“复苏”。这是瑞银对于即将过半的
  A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.
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10:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115229315","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。\n\n2021年最主要的故事是“复苏”。\n这是瑞银对于即将过半的","content":"<p>First, focus on the opportunities hidden in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second theme is economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, and US small and mid-cap stocks are already rising, and the energy sector is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year. The main story of 2021 was \"recovery\".</p><p>This is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>A summary of investment keywords for 2021, which is about to be halfway through.</p><p>According to UBS statistics, in the first half of 2021, the best performers in US stocks were cyclical and value stocks. The S&P 500's energy sector surged 47%, the financial sector rose 26%, while the broader market technology stocks rose only 9%.</p><p>UBS recently released its investment outlook for the second half of 2021. Dr. Hu Yifan, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Macroeconomics for UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific, provided a detailed explanation of the various factors affecting investment in 2021. During this discussion, UBS summarized several issues that investors were most concerned about. The following are UBS's main points:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2a2b7e38569aaff562e79ce2fe8334\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b>A-shares lagged behind in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.</b></p><p>Since 2021, some global markets have performed well and are expected to improve further in the second half of the year, mainly driven by strong profit growth. UBS predicts that global corporate profits will rebound by an average of 30% in 2021, with the United States at an average of about 30%, the United Kingdom at about 50%, continental Europe at 40%, and Japan also expected to rebound by more than 20%.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the first half of 2021, the stock market was more attractive than the bond market because rising interest rates put some pressure on the bond market. The stock market is expected to continue to outperform the bond market in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, central banks around the world will maintain a relatively accommodative stance. Although US inflation has risen sharply and the Federal Reserve may exit its accommodative policy sooner than expected, it will still maintain a fairly accommodative stance in 2021.</p><p>So, where are the growth opportunities in the second half of the year? UBS recommends:<b>First, focus on the opportunities hidden in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second theme is economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, and US small and mid-cap stocks are already rising, and the energy sector is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year.</b>。 UBS's current year-end oil price forecast is $78, but it may continue to rise.</p><p>Compared to stock markets in other parts of the world, Asian stock markets are valued at a 30% discount, and Asia's economic restart and strong earnings performance will support stock market performance in the second half of the year. From a diversification perspective, stocks from emerging countries and regions, especially Asia, can play a role in investment portfolios.</p><p>China's stock market has lagged behind the world in gains since the beginning of the year. During this period, global stock markets rose by an average of more than 10%, but China only rose by 2.5%, and the Hong Kong MSCI index also rose by only about 3%. However, China's economy actually performed quite strongly in 2021, with GDP growing by 18.3% in the first quarter and UBS forecasting a 7.5%-8% increase in the second quarter. Growth may slow in the second half of 2021, mainly due to a higher base. UBS predicts that China's GDP will rise by about 5.5% in the second half of the year.</p><p>Against this backdrop of economic growth, the average profitability of Chinese companies achieved double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022. However, the average price-to-earnings ratio (PEG) of the Chinese stock market is less than 1.0, making the Chinese stock market quite attractive. The main pressure on A-shares in the first half of 2021 came from policies, especially anti-monopoly regulation, but there are more opportunities for A-shares in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>The next wave of golden opportunities for technology stocks: finance, health, and green.</b></p><p>Technology stocks performed very well in 2020, but only grew by 9% in the first half of the year, far lagging behind the energy and banking sectors. There are not many catalysts for further rise in technology stocks this year, but UBS is still very optimistic about technology stocks in the medium to long term.</p><p>In its long-term portfolio vision, UBS believes that it should not only invest in large-cap technology stocks, but also look at more diversified technology investments, such as European digital leaders, small and mid-cap stocks in high-growth industries, and digital subscriptions. At the same time, sustainable investing has always been a direction that UBS is very optimistic about, and it is increasingly favored by investors in UBS's portfolio.</p><p>Based on their performance over the past decade, UBS believes that Europe's digital leaders will be in a leading position and benefit from the fourth industrial revolution. The next golden opportunity will emerge in the fields of fintech, health technology, and green technology, and will be realized and accelerated by the promotion of 5G.</p><p>In sustainable investing, portfolios with low carbon intensity perform particularly well. Therefore, investors should proactively select stocks and choose more diversified strategies for more sustainable investments. Among green technology investment opportunities, when choosing stocks in the supply chain, UBS is currently most optimistic about global stocks in Asia.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Travel, selected automakers, suppliers with promising technological prospects, and advanced companies with innovative potential. Meanwhile, UBS is optimistic about green technology, the future of the planet, and carbon emissions trading.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Inflation-hedging investment concept: Infrastructure is a global theme</b></p><p>\"Inflation\" has become a...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Keyword search trends. The main and fundamental reason for this wave of inflation is that the economic recovery has been very strong and rapid, which has created a large supply gap in the short term. UBS predicts that US inflation will peak in the second quarter, remain high in the third quarter, and begin to decline slowly in the fourth quarter. Overall, inflation is a relatively short-term factor, but if there are some structural factors in inflation, such as a relatively insufficient supply in the labor market, it may lead to some wage increases. Alternatively, if Americans all spent their money, it would also push up inflation, with the current savings rate as high as 15%. Businesses may also pass on costs. If this happens, some short-term factors may turn into long-term factors, so it is also necessary to take precautions.</p><p>UBS forecasts overall US inflation at 3.7%, but due to the high base in 2021, there may be a rapid decline in 2022. However, inflation is unlikely to exceed 3% for an extended period. UBS believes the Federal Reserve will propose a new average target framework.</p><p>In the process of preventing inflation, several major investment ideas may be needed: stocks of companies with strong pricing power will be more attractive; Reasonably priced, high-quality growth stocks, short-duration bonds, private equity infrastructure, and commodities are all areas that UBS focuses on.</p><p>The global infrastructure gap is widening, and government investment is also increasing. For example, the United States launched a \"2.3 trillion dollar infrastructure plan,\" but the government alone is not enough to meet the demand, so this provides opportunities for private investors. In this regard, UBS favors investments in assets related to industry, logistics, and data centers.</p><p>Commodity prices will keep pace with inflation. Currently, the room for commodity prices to rise is not as rapid as in the first half of the year, but there is still some room for further increases, especially when the US CPI exceeds 2% and continues to rise, the energy sector often performs well.</p><p><b>4、</b><b>Improving Portfolio Returns: High Yields on Chinese Real Estate Bonds</b></p><p>Although inflation is rising, interest rates will remain at a relatively low level in the medium to long term, especially for the Federal Reserve, whose base interest rate will remain in the range of 0-0.25 until 2023. At this point, how to improve portfolio returns becomes even more important, especially for investors who prefer defensive bond investments.</p><p>UBS's strategy is to invest in inflation-hedging dividend-paying stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and senior loans, and to have some \"alternative income\" to improve investment returns.</p><p>Since 2021, the correlation between high-yield bonds and the US 10-year Treasury Bond has been relatively small. Asian high-yield bond yields are currently as high as 7%, which is still attractive, especially the bonds of some relatively stable Chinese real estate companies. Although the real estate market is generally tightening, putting heavy pressure on stocks, we are still quite optimistic about bonds.</p><p>In terms of dividend-paying stocks, some companies pay dividends as high as 3% per year, far better than similar bonds. UBS is particularly optimistic about large blue-chip stocks with dividends as high as 3%.</p><p>Senior loans are often secured and have floating interest rates. This means that once the Federal Reserve begins rate hike, the interest rates on these senior loans will also rise, which is also a direction that UBS is optimistic about.</p><p>Therefore, by allocating these assets, you can improve the returns of your investment portfolio.</p><p><b>5、</b><b>Hedge funds are the most effective way to mitigate downside risks.</b></p><p>UBS believes that the main potential downside risks to watch out for in the second half of 2021 are: (1) inflation continues to rise, and (2) growth falls short of expectations. At present, the market is very confident about the second half of the year, but there is also a potential risk that growth falls short of expectations. Although this is a low-probability event, factors such as the resurgence of the epidemic, the escalation of the Sino-US situation, and the Federal Reserve tapering panic cannot be ruled out.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that the following measures can be taken to manage downside risks:</p><p>(1) Investing in hedge funds is the most effective way. Hedge funds tend to perform better when the market is volatile. Hedge funds are a particularly advantageous option for investors who are cautious about establishing long positions. Previously, the stock and bond markets performed oppositely, but in recent years, stocks and bonds have become increasingly convergent, and using stocks and bonds as diversification tools may not be as effective. This makes the role of hedge funds as a portfolio diversification tool more important.</p><p>(2) Select some defensive stocks. For example, the consumer industry, industries with long-term potential, and industries related to the growth of emerging markets.</p><p>(3) Options strategy. You can take profits on stocks that have already performed well but have limited upside potential, and use options or structured investments to hedge against downside risks.</p><p>Of course, some investors believe that it is possible to wait for the risks to disappear, but UBS believes that waiting for the risks to subside during the process of rising inflation may be a time-consuming and costly strategy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>First, focus on the opportunities hidden in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second theme is economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, and US small and mid-cap stocks are already rising, and the energy sector is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year. The main story of 2021 was \"recovery\".</p><p>This is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>A summary of investment keywords for 2021, which is about to be halfway through.</p><p>According to UBS statistics, in the first half of 2021, the best performers in US stocks were cyclical and value stocks. The S&P 500's energy sector surged 47%, the financial sector rose 26%, while the broader market technology stocks rose only 9%.</p><p>UBS recently released its investment outlook for the second half of 2021. Dr. Hu Yifan, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Macroeconomics for UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific, provided a detailed explanation of the various factors affecting investment in 2021. During this discussion, UBS summarized several issues that investors were most concerned about. The following are UBS's main points:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2a2b7e38569aaff562e79ce2fe8334\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b>A-shares lagged behind in the first half of the year, but are more attractive in the second half.</b></p><p>Since 2021, some global markets have performed well and are expected to improve further in the second half of the year, mainly driven by strong profit growth. UBS predicts that global corporate profits will rebound by an average of 30% in 2021, with the United States at an average of about 30%, the United Kingdom at about 50%, continental Europe at 40%, and Japan also expected to rebound by more than 20%.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the first half of 2021, the stock market was more attractive than the bond market because rising interest rates put some pressure on the bond market. The stock market is expected to continue to outperform the bond market in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, central banks around the world will maintain a relatively accommodative stance. Although US inflation has risen sharply and the Federal Reserve may exit its accommodative policy sooner than expected, it will still maintain a fairly accommodative stance in 2021.</p><p>So, where are the growth opportunities in the second half of the year? UBS recommends:<b>First, focus on the opportunities hidden in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second theme is economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, and US small and mid-cap stocks are already rising, and the energy sector is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year.</b>。 UBS's current year-end oil price forecast is $78, but it may continue to rise.</p><p>Compared to stock markets in other parts of the world, Asian stock markets are valued at a 30% discount, and Asia's economic restart and strong earnings performance will support stock market performance in the second half of the year. From a diversification perspective, stocks from emerging countries and regions, especially Asia, can play a role in investment portfolios.</p><p>China's stock market has lagged behind the world in gains since the beginning of the year. During this period, global stock markets rose by an average of more than 10%, but China only rose by 2.5%, and the Hong Kong MSCI index also rose by only about 3%. However, China's economy actually performed quite strongly in 2021, with GDP growing by 18.3% in the first quarter and UBS forecasting a 7.5%-8% increase in the second quarter. Growth may slow in the second half of 2021, mainly due to a higher base. UBS predicts that China's GDP will rise by about 5.5% in the second half of the year.</p><p>Against this backdrop of economic growth, the average profitability of Chinese companies achieved double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022. However, the average price-to-earnings ratio (PEG) of the Chinese stock market is less than 1.0, making the Chinese stock market quite attractive. The main pressure on A-shares in the first half of 2021 came from policies, especially anti-monopoly regulation, but there are more opportunities for A-shares in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>The next wave of golden opportunities for technology stocks: finance, health, and green.</b></p><p>Technology stocks performed very well in 2020, but only grew by 9% in the first half of the year, far lagging behind the energy and banking sectors. There are not many catalysts for further rise in technology stocks this year, but UBS is still very optimistic about technology stocks in the medium to long term.</p><p>In its long-term portfolio vision, UBS believes that it should not only invest in large-cap technology stocks, but also look at more diversified technology investments, such as European digital leaders, small and mid-cap stocks in high-growth industries, and digital subscriptions. At the same time, sustainable investing has always been a direction that UBS is very optimistic about, and it is increasingly favored by investors in UBS's portfolio.</p><p>Based on their performance over the past decade, UBS believes that Europe's digital leaders will be in a leading position and benefit from the fourth industrial revolution. The next golden opportunity will emerge in the fields of fintech, health technology, and green technology, and will be realized and accelerated by the promotion of 5G.</p><p>In sustainable investing, portfolios with low carbon intensity perform particularly well. Therefore, investors should proactively select stocks and choose more diversified strategies for more sustainable investments. Among green technology investment opportunities, when choosing stocks in the supply chain, UBS is currently most optimistic about global stocks in Asia.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Travel, selected automakers, suppliers with promising technological prospects, and advanced companies with innovative potential. Meanwhile, UBS is optimistic about green technology, the future of the planet, and carbon emissions trading.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Inflation-hedging investment concept: Infrastructure is a global theme</b></p><p>\"Inflation\" has become a...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Keyword search trends. The main and fundamental reason for this wave of inflation is that the economic recovery has been very strong and rapid, which has created a large supply gap in the short term. UBS predicts that US inflation will peak in the second quarter, remain high in the third quarter, and begin to decline slowly in the fourth quarter. Overall, inflation is a relatively short-term factor, but if there are some structural factors in inflation, such as a relatively insufficient supply in the labor market, it may lead to some wage increases. Alternatively, if Americans all spent their money, it would also push up inflation, with the current savings rate as high as 15%. Businesses may also pass on costs. If this happens, some short-term factors may turn into long-term factors, so it is also necessary to take precautions.</p><p>UBS forecasts overall US inflation at 3.7%, but due to the high base in 2021, there may be a rapid decline in 2022. However, inflation is unlikely to exceed 3% for an extended period. UBS believes the Federal Reserve will propose a new average target framework.</p><p>In the process of preventing inflation, several major investment ideas may be needed: stocks of companies with strong pricing power will be more attractive; Reasonably priced, high-quality growth stocks, short-duration bonds, private equity infrastructure, and commodities are all areas that UBS focuses on.</p><p>The global infrastructure gap is widening, and government investment is also increasing. For example, the United States launched a \"2.3 trillion dollar infrastructure plan,\" but the government alone is not enough to meet the demand, so this provides opportunities for private investors. In this regard, UBS favors investments in assets related to industry, logistics, and data centers.</p><p>Commodity prices will keep pace with inflation. Currently, the room for commodity prices to rise is not as rapid as in the first half of the year, but there is still some room for further increases, especially when the US CPI exceeds 2% and continues to rise, the energy sector often performs well.</p><p><b>4、</b><b>Improving Portfolio Returns: High Yields on Chinese Real Estate Bonds</b></p><p>Although inflation is rising, interest rates will remain at a relatively low level in the medium to long term, especially for the Federal Reserve, whose base interest rate will remain in the range of 0-0.25 until 2023. At this point, how to improve portfolio returns becomes even more important, especially for investors who prefer defensive bond investments.</p><p>UBS's strategy is to invest in inflation-hedging dividend-paying stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and senior loans, and to have some \"alternative income\" to improve investment returns.</p><p>Since 2021, the correlation between high-yield bonds and the US 10-year Treasury Bond has been relatively small. Asian high-yield bond yields are currently as high as 7%, which is still attractive, especially the bonds of some relatively stable Chinese real estate companies. Although the real estate market is generally tightening, putting heavy pressure on stocks, we are still quite optimistic about bonds.</p><p>In terms of dividend-paying stocks, some companies pay dividends as high as 3% per year, far better than similar bonds. UBS is particularly optimistic about large blue-chip stocks with dividends as high as 3%.</p><p>Senior loans are often secured and have floating interest rates. This means that once the Federal Reserve begins rate hike, the interest rates on these senior loans will also rise, which is also a direction that UBS is optimistic about.</p><p>Therefore, by allocating these assets, you can improve the returns of your investment portfolio.</p><p><b>5、</b><b>Hedge funds are the most effective way to mitigate downside risks.</b></p><p>UBS believes that the main potential downside risks to watch out for in the second half of 2021 are: (1) inflation continues to rise, and (2) growth falls short of expectations. At present, the market is very confident about the second half of the year, but there is also a potential risk that growth falls short of expectations. Although this is a low-probability event, factors such as the resurgence of the epidemic, the escalation of the Sino-US situation, and the Federal Reserve tapering panic cannot be ruled out.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that the following measures can be taken to manage downside risks:</p><p>(1) Investing in hedge funds is the most effective way. Hedge funds tend to perform better when the market is volatile. Hedge funds are a particularly advantageous option for investors who are cautious about establishing long positions. Previously, the stock and bond markets performed oppositely, but in recent years, stocks and bonds have become increasingly convergent, and using stocks and bonds as diversification tools may not be as effective. This makes the role of hedge funds as a portfolio diversification tool more important.</p><p>(2) Select some defensive stocks. For example, the consumer industry, industries with long-term potential, and industries related to the growth of emerging markets.</p><p>(3) Options strategy. You can take profits on stocks that have already performed well but have limited upside potential, and use options or structured investments to hedge against downside risks.</p><p>Of course, some investors believe that it is possible to wait for the risks to disappear, but UBS believes that waiting for the risks to subside during the process of rising inflation may be a time-consuming and costly strategy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115229315","content_text":"第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。\n\n2021年最主要的故事是“复苏”。\n这是瑞银对于即将过半的2021年投资关键词总结。\n根据瑞银统计，2021年上半年，美股上涨最好的是周期股和价值股，标普500的能源板块大涨47%，金融板块上涨了26%，而大盘的科技股仅上涨了9%。\n近日，瑞银发布了2021年下半年投资展望。瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监及宏观经济主管胡一帆博士详细解读了2021年影响投资的各种因素。在这场讨论会中，瑞银总结了几个投资者最关心的问题，以下为瑞银的主要观点：\n\n1、A股上半年表现落后，下半年更有吸引力\n2021年以来全球部分市场表现得不错，下半年还有望进一步提高，主要驱动因素是强劲的盈利增长。瑞银预测，2021年全球整体企业盈利平均会有30%的反弹，美国在平均水平，约为30%，英国约为50%，欧洲大陆为40%，日本也会有20%以上的反弹。\n同时，在2021年上半年，股市相比债市更有吸引力，因为利率在不断上行过程中对债市造成了一定压力，下半年股市表现还是会继续好于债市。\n最后，各国央行还是会坚持比较宽松的立场，虽然美国通胀大幅上升，美联储退出宽松政策可能会早于预期，但是2021年仍将保持相当宽松的态势。\n那么，下半年增长的机会在哪里呢？瑞银建议：第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。瑞银当前对年底油价的预期是78美元，但可能还会继续上调。\n相较于全球其它地区股市，亚洲股市的估值有30%的折让，而亚洲的经济重启和强劲的盈利表现将支持下半年股市的表现。从多元化的角度来讲，新兴国家和地区，特别是亚洲的股票可以在投资组合中发挥作用。\n中国股市从年初到现在涨幅落后于全球。在这段时间，全球股市平均上涨超过10%，但中国只有2.5%的涨幅，港股MSCI指数也只有3%左右上涨。但中国经济在2021年表现其实相当强劲，一季度GDP上涨了18.3%，二季度瑞银预测在7.5%-8%之间。2021年下半年，增长可能会有所放缓，最主要原因是基数变高，瑞银预测中国GDP下半年大约上涨5.5%左右。\n在这样的经济增长背景下，2021年和2022年中国企业的平均盈利水平都能实现双位数的增长，但是中国股市的平均市盈增长比率（PEG）小于1.0，所以中国股市比较有吸引力。2021年上半年A股最主要的压力来自于政策，特别对于反垄断的监管，但下半年A股有更多的机会。\n2、科技股下一波黄金机遇：金融、健康、绿色\n科技股在2020年表现十分亮眼，但上半年只增长了9%，远逊于能源和银行业，今年科技股进一步上升的催化剂不太多，但中长期瑞银还是非常地看好科技股的。\n在长期投资组合构想当中，瑞银认为，不仅要投资大盘的科技股，也要放眼更多元化的科技投资，如欧洲的数字领军者、高增长行业中的中小盘，以及数字订阅等。同时，可持续投资也一直是瑞银非常看好的方向，在瑞银的组合中越来越受到投资者的青睐。\n经过过去十年来的表现之后，瑞银认为欧洲的数字领军者会处于领先地位，从第四波的工业革命当中受益。下一个黄金的机遇将会出现金融科技、健康科技、绿色科技的领域，并且因受益于5G的推广而实现、而加速。\n可持续投资中，表现非常出色的是在碳强度较低的投资组合当中，所以投资者要主动选股，更加可持续投资当中选择更多元化的策略；在绿色科技投资的机会中，要挑选在供应链上的股票，瑞银现在最为看好的是亚洲的全球智能出行、精选的汽车商、技术前景向好的供应商，还有具有创新潜力的先进企业。同时瑞银看好绿色科技，地球的未来，以及碳排放交易。\n3、防通胀投资构想：基建是全球主题\n在美国“通胀”已经成为谷歌关键词的搜索趋势。这一波的通胀最主要根本的原因在于经济恢复非常的强劲并且快速，所以在短期内造成很大的供给之间的缺口。瑞银的预测，二季度美国通胀见顶，三季度保持在高位，四季度开始慢慢下行，总体而言，通胀是一个比较短暂的因素，但是如果通胀当中有一些结构性的因素，比如劳动力市场的供给相对不足，可能会导致一些工资上升；或者如果美国人都把钱拿出来消费，也会推高通胀，当前储蓄率高达15%；企业也有可能转嫁成本，如果是这样，一部分的短暂因素可能会变为长期的因素，因此也要做好防范。\n瑞银对美国整体通胀预测是3.7%，但是由于2021年的高基数，2022年可能有一个快速的回落，但是通胀不太可能长时间超过3%，瑞银认为美联储会提出新的平均目标框架。\n在防范通胀的过程当中，可能需要几大投资的构想：有较强定价能力公司的股票就会比较有吸引力；价格合理的优质成长股、短久期的债券、私募市场的基建，还有大宗商品，都是瑞银比较关注的方向。\n现在全球的基建缺口不断地增大，政府投资也是不断地增强，比如说美国推出了“2.3万亿的基建计划”，但是光靠政府是不足以达到需求的，所以这为私人投资者提供了机会。在这方面，瑞银青睐于工业、物流、数据中心等相关资产的投资。\n大宗商品的价格会和通胀亦步亦趋，当前大宗商品价格上涨的空间不如上半年那么快速，但是还是会有一些继续上涨的空间，特别是当美国的CPI超过2%，而且还继续上行的时候，能源行业往往表现比较出色。\n4、提高投资组合回报：中国房企债收益高\n虽然通胀上升，但从中长期来看，利率还是会保持在一个比较低的水平，特别对于美联储来讲，2023年前基础利率还是会保持0-0.25的区间当中。此时，投资组合收益，特别对于偏好防御型债券类投资的投资者来讲，如何提高投资组合收益变得更为重要。\n瑞银的策略是，投资一些抵御通胀的派息股、高收益信用债和优先级贷款，并且可以有一些“另类收益”来提高投资收益。\n2021年以来，高收益债和美国十年期国债的相关性比较小。亚洲高收益债的收益率现在高达7%，还是具有吸引力，特别是一些比较稳健的中国房企的债券比较有吸引力，虽然房地产市场总体有收紧趋势，对于股票的承压比较重，但是对于债券还是比较的看好。\n派息股来讲，一些企业年派息高达3%以上，远远好于同类债券，瑞银特别看好派息高达3%的大蓝筹股。\n优先级贷款，往往有抵押，而且是浮动的利率，这意味着一旦美联储开始加息，这些优先级贷款利率也会走高，这也是瑞银比较看好的方向。\n因此可以通过配置这些资产，提高投资组合的收益。\n5、防范下行风险，对冲基金最有效\n瑞银认为，2021年下半年需要关注的潜在下行风险主要有：(1)通胀持续攀升，(2)增长不如预期，目前市场对下半年很有信心，但也存在增长不如预期的潜在风险，虽然这是个小概率事件，但也不排除疫情卷土重来、中美局势升温、美联储缩减恐慌等因素。\n因此，瑞银认为可以采取以下措施管理下行风险：\n(1)投资对冲基金，这是最有效的方式。对冲基金在市场波动的时候表现会比较好。特别对于有审慎建立多头头寸的投资者来讲，对冲基金是比较有利的选项。以前股市和债市的表现是相反的，但最近几年，股票和债券的趋同性越来越大，用股票和债券作为分散化的工具，可能效果并没有那么好，这使得对冲基金作为投资组合多元化工具的角色更加重要。\n(2)精选一些防御型股票。比如说消费行业、长期有潜力的行业、与新兴市场增长相关的行业。\n(3)期权策略。可以获利了结那些已经表现优异并且上行空间有限的股票，用期权或者结构性投资来防范下行的风险。\n当然，有一些投资者认为可以等风险消失，但是瑞银认为在通胀上行的过程当中，等待风险消退可能是费时长久而且代价昂贵的策略。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}