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  ·2021-08-12
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  Why is Li Auto no longer worth anything when it returns to the Hong Kong stock market today?
  理想汽车-W港股暗盘破发，股价一度跌4%，截止收盘报跌1.78%。 2015——是80后李想第三次创业，创立理想汽车的年份，同时也是理想汽车港交所上市的股票代码。从1999年起，港交所开始推行“股份
  Why is Li Auto no longer worth anything when it returns to the Hong Kong stock market today?
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An insider at Li Auto told Huxiu that the company did indeed choose the number through donations. \"2015 has truly returned to our original aspirations.\"</p><p><b>On August 12, Li Auto officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>The announcement shows that Li Auto will publicly offer 10 million Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong, accounting for 10% of the global offering. Based on the offer price of HK$118 per share, this Hong Kong IPO will raise approximately HK$11.55 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>It was subscribed 5.5 times.</p><p>In contrast, those that had just listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange a month ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The financing subscription multiple reached 14.73 times, and the total financing amount reached HK$14 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB11.652 billion.</p><p><b>It is evident that the market has remained overly calm regarding Li Auto' listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Li Auto, which has been established for six years but only sells one car, even surpassed its sales figures in July.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng has become the number one emerging player, but the capital market does not pay for its \"ideals\". As of the close of trading on August 10, Nio had a market capitalization of approximately $72.46 billion, XPeng had a market capitalization of $36.06 billion, and Li Auto had a market capitalization of only $29.15 billion.</p><p><b>\"Whether a product is good or not often has little to do with the secondary market. A good product doesn't necessarily mean the secondary market will buy it; capital values potential. The launch of pure electric vehicles in Li Auto is a key milestone.\"</b>An investment professional told Huxiu.</p><p>Li Auto not only lacks money and new cars, but also lacks good stories.</p><p><b>1. Was it just a coincidence that a blockbuster model was created?</b></p><p>Li Xiang, born in 1981, is less experienced than Li Bin and He Xiaopeng, two entrepreneurs and car manufacturers born in the 1970s. When faced with public opinion events, Li Xiang often spoke without restraint.</p><p>But when it comes to making products and running a business, Li Xiang always manages to strike late and make a name for himself. Founded by Li Xiang in 2005<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>By then, there were already several established automotive websites on the market, including Yiche.com, founded by Li Bin in 2000. Li Xiang took only three years to make Autohome the most visited company in the industry.</p><p>When Li Xiang founded Li Auto in 2015, Nio and XPeng had already taken the lead. In the early stages of their business, Li Xiang and his team focused their energy and resources on their first product, the SEV, a micro pure electric car. However, after more than two years of research and development and testing, the project had to be terminated due to policy reasons.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0f0f16d204bdc81722ffc12d3b47b1\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SEV is displayed in the lobby of the Li Auto headquarters.</span></p><p>Although the project's abrupt termination did not cause the team to fall apart, the pace of product development and mass production delivery lagged far behind the other two emerging players. It wasn't until October 2018 that Li Auto' first product, the Li Auto ONE, finally arrived. At that time, Nio had already made large-scale deliveries of the ES8 model and successfully completed its listing on the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>After two years of trial and error, all three new forces have emerged with their own unique styles. Nio with \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>XPeng Automobile's \"stylish\" service system has taken root in people's hearts, and its technology...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The transformative experience impresses consumers. However, the impression Li Auto has left on everyone is still limited to the Li Auto ONE product.</p><p>On August 1, Li Auto released its July delivery data, showing that 8,589 Li Auto ONEs were delivered in July, representing a year-on-year increase of 251.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. This enabled Li Auto to surpass Nio with 7,931 units delivered and XPeng with 8,040 units delivered, becoming the top-selling emerging electric vehicle manufacturer in July.</p><p>In the July total sales ranking of new energy vehicles, the Li Auto ONE surpassed models such as the Tesla Model 3 and BYD Han to rank fourth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46df393e3752fc3e09e54edbfe458c6a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The reason why it was able to create a blockbuster product was somewhat accidental.</b></p><p>Zhang Hui, head of Li Auto' strategy department, revealed the answer: \"From Li Xiang's perspective, it will definitely succeed. Because his methodologies existed before (at Autohome)—\"<b>Define a very, very clear user group, and then create products for that user group.</b>”</p><p>Unlike Nio and XPeng, it faces the challenge of pure electric vehicles.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Li Auto ONE has taken a different approach, taking the \"shortcut\" of range-extended electric vehicles. It is not limited to the pure electric vehicle segment, but rather places itself in the gasoline vehicle sector, which has a larger market size. Based on this, Li Auto ONE targeted the pain points of family users' needs to create products, and ultimately continued to steal users from traditional automakers with its cost-effectiveness and product strength.</p><p>However, Zhang Hui also admitted that from the perspective of the 2025 strategy, if the same method were used, the subsequent results would have become accidental.</p><p>\"We expect by mid-2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>With market sales of 8 million vehicles, we aim to achieve a 20% market share and sales of 1.6 million vehicles. Does this market still have so many unmet user groups? The others didn't see it, and it just so happened that only we noticed it? That's almost impossible.”</p><p>Zhang Hui also stated:<b>\"We must move from the accidental success of the ideal ONE to more inevitable successes in order to achieve the 2025 goal.\"</b></p><p>In fact, Li Auto' strategic goal for 2025 is to become China's number one smart electric vehicle company—a goal that originated from an internal letter released by Li Auto CEO Li Xiang in February of this year. It mentions that the company's strategic goal for 2025 is to capture 20% of the market share in China and rank first in the Chinese market.</p><p>Investors are still optimistic about Li Xiang's goal. Wang Huadong, partner at Matrix Partners China, said, \"We hope that this Hong Kong stock listing and financing will help the company achieve its 2025 strategic goals as soon as possible and continue to promote the continuous development of new energy vehicles.\"</p><p>However, a single technology route and a single model are insufficient to realize this \"grand dream\".</p><p><b>II. Shortcuts taken will eventually be repaid.</b></p><p>According to the prospectus, the new story Li Auto told the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this time can be roughly divided into three key points: next-generation range-extended vehicles, new pure electric vehicles, and Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad5012845832397e33c0cc9d560d056\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</span></p><p>Whether it's the capital market or ordinary consumers, what they most look forward to is Li Auto entering the pure electric market and creating a domestically produced pure electric vehicle that can be considered a blockbuster, just like the Li Auto ONE.</p><p><b>Of course, this is also one of the important reasons why Li Auto listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds.</b></p><p>In its prospectus, Li Auto stated that 20% of the net proceeds will fund the research and development of high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, platforms, and future models. In contrast, 15% of the funds raised will be used for autonomous driving research and development, and 10% will be used for range-extended range platform development. Judging from the proportion of invested capital, Li Auto is serious about making pure electric vehicles this time.</p><p>Specifically, Li Auto' pure electric technology is divided into several core elements: high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms, thermal management systems, and high-power charging networks.</p><p>Pure electric + fast charging + self-built charging network—does that sound familiar? That's right, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng started down this path several years ago.<b>Now, Li Auto is going to walk this path again.</b></p><p>Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</p><p>In its prospectus, Li Auto also mentioned: \"With the continuous advancement of next-generation electric vehicle technology, we believe this is a good time to introduce high-voltage pure electric platforms and future high-voltage pure electric vehicle models.\"</p><p><b>Is it a good time to start pure electric vehicles now?</b></p><p>From the perspective of the industry chain, the reduction in the cost of power batteries will narrow the cost difference between pure electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles. This gives pure electric vehicles a greater product advantage in the competition at the same price point.</p><p>Taking the NIO ES8 as an example, the 70 kWh battery used in 2018 cost as much as US$12,600, equivalent to RMB 82,000. Not only are the batteries expensive, but the battery life is also poor. The 2018 Nio ES8 has a NEDC range of only 425 kilometers, which actually compromises its usability and high-speed performance.</p><p>The latest Nio 100kWh battery pack, based on this year's cost price, costs approximately $12,300, equivalent to 80,000 RMB, but this gives the 2020 Nio ES8 an NEDC range of 580 kilometers.</p><p><b>In other words, with similar battery costs, which used to only achieve a range of 400 kilometers, can now easily achieve nearly 600 kilometers.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e5a992b903c2c85ec621235f1ff246\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If we say,<b>At the time, the Li Auto ONE was adopted as a pure electric vehicle from the very beginning, which would most likely have ended in failure.</b></p><p>In his book \"Lean Startup Practice,\" Eric Ries proposed the concept of MVP (Minimum Viable Product), which refers to running an entire model through a single Product under market uncertainty. If it succeeds, then invest resources to enter the market on a large scale; if it fails, then quickly adjust the direction. The Ideal ONE does exactly that.</p><p>Because for mid-to-large battery-powered SUVs, the battery system accounts for about 35% of the material cost. Either you sell it for more, or you sacrifice battery capacity. Before 2018, during that period of policy and market uncertainty, Li Auto could only adopt a \"hybrid\" route combining small batteries and fuel generators to successfully weather the crisis and wait until battery costs decreased.</p><p>According to forecasts, with the support of new chemical materials, new manufacturing technologies, and simplified packaging designs, the average price of batteries per kilowatt-hour is expected to reach $85 by 2025. At that stage, long-range, low-cost batteries will allow electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles to compete fairly.</p><p>According to the plan, Li Auto will launch a range-extended full-size luxury intelligent SUV in 2022, and two other range-extended SUVs in 2023. Starting from 2023, it will launch at least two pure electric models every year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb07d82d157a1ce04e97ab13a1d9fb4a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that the reduction in battery costs benefits everyone. Currently, Li Auto's biggest dilemma lies in the fact that many new products have not yet been officially launched, and its platformization and scaling capabilities have not yet been verified.</p><p>In the early days, in order to quickly launch the Li Auto ONE to the market, it was built on a relatively independent range-extended platform, let alone a pure electric platform. This means that it may not be able to rapidly iterate on new products, expand market size, and reduce marginal costs like Volkswagen's MEB pure electric platform.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9904b42cfb741c93150487ca9dc46\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>XPeng Automotive Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</span></p><p>Even XPeng vehicles now have a certain degree of platform-based capabilities.</p><p>XPeng has two platforms, Edward and David. The former is responsible for developing mid-to-high-end cars, while the latter is responsible for mid-to-low-end cars. This is why XPeng was able to launch the facelifted G3 and the new P5 less than a year after the launch of the P7. Next year, XPeng will also launch a brand-new mid-to-large SUV.</p><p>This also includes Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, as well as Nio' ES8, ES6, and EC6, all of which also possess certain platform capabilities. At the very least, they have achieved parts sharing, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement across multiple models.</p><p><b>Finally, and most fatally, the ideal R&D investment base is the lowest among the \"three idiots\".</b></p><p>According to financial reports, in 2020, Li Auto spent a total of 1.1 billion yuan on R&D, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while R&D investment accounted for 11.8% of total revenue. Nio' R&D expenses during the same period were 2.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue. XPeng' total R&D expenses for the year were 1.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, accounting for 29.5% of total revenue.</p><p>The high investment in research and development has enabled Nio to make great strides forward in products and technology. The Nio ET7, which will be delivered early next year, is a product of Nio' second-generation platform NP2. At that time, the launch of the 150kWh solid-state battery sparked a wave of solid-state battery investment in the capital market. XPeng's new P5 model uses a dual LiDAR solution, taking the level of autonomous driving hardware to a new level.</p><p>Conversely, the various flashy technologies mentioned in Li Auto' prospectus, such as 4C fast-charging high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms based on third-generation SiC semiconductor materials, thermal management systems for carbon dioxide refrigerants, high-performance fast-charging networks, Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, and so on. At present, it is only in the stage of \"theoretical discussion\".</p><p>As I said before, fate will force you to retrace all the shortcuts you've taken.</p><p><b>Third, if we don't exploit \"retail investors,\" imagine how much the potential will be discounted?</b></p><p>Capital is more interested in listening to stories about the \"second growth curve\" than selling cars.</p><p>Tesla has a good grasp of this. As of the third quarter of 2020, Tesla's cumulative software cash revenue had exceeded $1 billion. According to Anxin Securities' forecast, Tesla's software business revenue is expected to reach nearly $7 billion in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of the automotive business's gross profit.</p><p>As is well known, Tesla's model is to sell hardware products at cost price as much as possible to gain more market share, then use its data advantages to develop software functions such as autonomous driving that can be upgraded on a large scale, and finally earn money from users for software payments through one-time purchases or subscriptions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Adam Jonas recently released a report attempting to value Tesla's software-as-a-service business: \"Tesla's recurring software revenue may exceed the value of its hardware business. Over time, we expect Tesla to launch a wide range of services to users and disclose more financial information.\"<b>In our view, this shift will help drive stock revaluation.</b>”</p><p>However, regarding the paid software model, a powerful tool for valuation growth, Li Auto CEO Li Xiang expressed a relatively conservative attitude in a previous interview:<b>\"We can't just say that we definitely won't provide software services or that we don't need revenue from that.\"</b></p><p>Currently, driver assistance features in Li Auto are included as standard equipment in the vehicle price and do not require additional payment. However, according to Li Xiang, the reason why they are not charging for software subscriptions is because the market size is not large enough, and it is too early to talk about software subscription revenue.</p><p><b>This statement is not without merit, but both XPeng and Nio have already tasted the sweet fruit for the first time.</b></p><p>For example, XPeng Motors' financial report shows that its revenue from the XPilot 3.0 software package for its autonomous driving system was 50 million yuan in 2020, while it reached 30 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, which is more than half of its revenue for the whole of last year.</p><p>NIO's gross profit margin reached an astonishing 19.48% in the first quarter of this year, significantly higher than Li Auto's 17.26% and XPeng' 11.18%. The most direct reason is the support of two subscription-based payments: battery rental and autonomous driving software packages.</p><p>However, the objective difficulty at present is that the timing of the implementation of higher-level autonomous driving functions is still unclear.<b>\"We believe that it will still take 5-10 years for large-scale mass production of L4 autonomous vehicles for open roads. It needs to be supplemented in areas such as road construction and the improvement of laws and regulations.\"</b>Zhang Xiaodan, brand marketing director of Yushi Technology, told Huxiu.</p><p>Therefore, most of the new forces are still in the recruitment stage at this stage. Besides promoting new R&D projects, the main purpose is to prevent talent from flowing into other car companies.</p><p>According to its US stock prospectus, Li Auto had 2,628 employees as of early 2020. However, by early 2021, according to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange prospectus, the ideal team had rapidly expanded to 4,900 people, with a growth rate of over 86%.</p><p>However, the fastest-growing positions are not R&D personnel, but sales. At the beginning of 2020, the Li Auto R&D team had 1,005 people. By the beginning of 2021, the number of R&D personnel had reached 1,633, accounting for 33.3% of the total. In contrast, the number of marketing and sales personnel at Ideal increased rapidly from 475 at the beginning of 2020 to 2,166.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eafb2647e034bd465b1dca1013709d12\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>It's true that Li Auto is selling well, but it's also true that its autonomous driving functions are \"lagging behind\".</b></p><p>When the 2021 Li Auto ONE was released at the end of May, NOA automatic navigation assisted driving was considered ONE of the promotional points, but to this day, the feature has not been pushed to users. This comes six months after XPeng launched a similar NGP autonomous navigation assistance function on January 26 this year. Nio even pushed out the NOP navigation assistance function to users last October.</p><p>Therefore, they are either holding back their ultimate move, or they don't have \"real skills\" yet.</p><p><b>At the end</b></p><p>According to the prospectus, Li Auto spent nearly 80 pages describing 12 risk factors facing the company, one of which is the risk of \"forced delisting,\" which is worth pondering.</p><p>For emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, possessing a large amount of personal information of car owners and domestic road traffic information presents a thorny issue, whether it is subject to review of accounting drafts or disclosure of major information: the possibility of leakage of important data and personal information.</p><p>Not long ago, XPeng Motor Company's Hong Kong IPO prospectus also specifically mentioned a delisting risk warning. Therefore, given the backdrop of data regulation, it is understandable that the market has been lukewarm about Li Auto' IPO.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is Li Auto no longer worth anything when it returns to the Hong Kong stock market today?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is Li Auto no longer worth anything when it returns to the Hong Kong stock market today?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 08:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Hong Kong stocks fell below their issue price in grey trading, with the share price falling as much as 4% and closing down 1.78%.</p><p>2015 was the year Li Xiang, born in the 1980s, started his third business, founding Li Auto, which was also the stock code for the Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>Since 1999, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has launched the \"Stock Code Charitable Lottery Arrangement Scheme,\" which allows users to choose their own stock code as long as they donate to the Hong Kong Community Chest. An insider at Li Auto told Huxiu that the company did indeed choose the number through donations. \"2015 has truly returned to our original aspirations.\"</p><p><b>On August 12, Li Auto officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>The announcement shows that Li Auto will publicly offer 10 million Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong, accounting for 10% of the global offering. Based on the offer price of HK$118 per share, this Hong Kong IPO will raise approximately HK$11.55 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>It was subscribed 5.5 times.</p><p>In contrast, those that had just listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange a month ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The financing subscription multiple reached 14.73 times, and the total financing amount reached HK$14 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB11.652 billion.</p><p><b>It is evident that the market has remained overly calm regarding Li Auto' listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Li Auto, which has been established for six years but only sells one car, even surpassed its sales figures in July.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng has become the number one emerging player, but the capital market does not pay for its \"ideals\". As of the close of trading on August 10, Nio had a market capitalization of approximately $72.46 billion, XPeng had a market capitalization of $36.06 billion, and Li Auto had a market capitalization of only $29.15 billion.</p><p><b>\"Whether a product is good or not often has little to do with the secondary market. A good product doesn't necessarily mean the secondary market will buy it; capital values potential. The launch of pure electric vehicles in Li Auto is a key milestone.\"</b>An investment professional told Huxiu.</p><p>Li Auto not only lacks money and new cars, but also lacks good stories.</p><p><b>1. Was it just a coincidence that a blockbuster model was created?</b></p><p>Li Xiang, born in 1981, is less experienced than Li Bin and He Xiaopeng, two entrepreneurs and car manufacturers born in the 1970s. When faced with public opinion events, Li Xiang often spoke without restraint.</p><p>But when it comes to making products and running a business, Li Xiang always manages to strike late and make a name for himself. Founded by Li Xiang in 2005<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>By then, there were already several established automotive websites on the market, including Yiche.com, founded by Li Bin in 2000. Li Xiang took only three years to make Autohome the most visited company in the industry.</p><p>When Li Xiang founded Li Auto in 2015, Nio and XPeng had already taken the lead. In the early stages of their business, Li Xiang and his team focused their energy and resources on their first product, the SEV, a micro pure electric car. However, after more than two years of research and development and testing, the project had to be terminated due to policy reasons.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0f0f16d204bdc81722ffc12d3b47b1\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SEV is displayed in the lobby of the Li Auto headquarters.</span></p><p>Although the project's abrupt termination did not cause the team to fall apart, the pace of product development and mass production delivery lagged far behind the other two emerging players. It wasn't until October 2018 that Li Auto' first product, the Li Auto ONE, finally arrived. At that time, Nio had already made large-scale deliveries of the ES8 model and successfully completed its listing on the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>After two years of trial and error, all three new forces have emerged with their own unique styles. Nio with \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>XPeng Automobile's \"stylish\" service system has taken root in people's hearts, and its technology...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The transformative experience impresses consumers. However, the impression Li Auto has left on everyone is still limited to the Li Auto ONE product.</p><p>On August 1, Li Auto released its July delivery data, showing that 8,589 Li Auto ONEs were delivered in July, representing a year-on-year increase of 251.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. This enabled Li Auto to surpass Nio with 7,931 units delivered and XPeng with 8,040 units delivered, becoming the top-selling emerging electric vehicle manufacturer in July.</p><p>In the July total sales ranking of new energy vehicles, the Li Auto ONE surpassed models such as the Tesla Model 3 and BYD Han to rank fourth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46df393e3752fc3e09e54edbfe458c6a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The reason why it was able to create a blockbuster product was somewhat accidental.</b></p><p>Zhang Hui, head of Li Auto' strategy department, revealed the answer: \"From Li Xiang's perspective, it will definitely succeed. Because his methodologies existed before (at Autohome)—\"<b>Define a very, very clear user group, and then create products for that user group.</b>”</p><p>Unlike Nio and XPeng, it faces the challenge of pure electric vehicles.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Li Auto ONE has taken a different approach, taking the \"shortcut\" of range-extended electric vehicles. It is not limited to the pure electric vehicle segment, but rather places itself in the gasoline vehicle sector, which has a larger market size. Based on this, Li Auto ONE targeted the pain points of family users' needs to create products, and ultimately continued to steal users from traditional automakers with its cost-effectiveness and product strength.</p><p>However, Zhang Hui also admitted that from the perspective of the 2025 strategy, if the same method were used, the subsequent results would have become accidental.</p><p>\"We expect by mid-2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>With market sales of 8 million vehicles, we aim to achieve a 20% market share and sales of 1.6 million vehicles. Does this market still have so many unmet user groups? The others didn't see it, and it just so happened that only we noticed it? That's almost impossible.”</p><p>Zhang Hui also stated:<b>\"We must move from the accidental success of the ideal ONE to more inevitable successes in order to achieve the 2025 goal.\"</b></p><p>In fact, Li Auto' strategic goal for 2025 is to become China's number one smart electric vehicle company—a goal that originated from an internal letter released by Li Auto CEO Li Xiang in February of this year. It mentions that the company's strategic goal for 2025 is to capture 20% of the market share in China and rank first in the Chinese market.</p><p>Investors are still optimistic about Li Xiang's goal. Wang Huadong, partner at Matrix Partners China, said, \"We hope that this Hong Kong stock listing and financing will help the company achieve its 2025 strategic goals as soon as possible and continue to promote the continuous development of new energy vehicles.\"</p><p>However, a single technology route and a single model are insufficient to realize this \"grand dream\".</p><p><b>II. Shortcuts taken will eventually be repaid.</b></p><p>According to the prospectus, the new story Li Auto told the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this time can be roughly divided into three key points: next-generation range-extended vehicles, new pure electric vehicles, and Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad5012845832397e33c0cc9d560d056\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</span></p><p>Whether it's the capital market or ordinary consumers, what they most look forward to is Li Auto entering the pure electric market and creating a domestically produced pure electric vehicle that can be considered a blockbuster, just like the Li Auto ONE.</p><p><b>Of course, this is also one of the important reasons why Li Auto listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds.</b></p><p>In its prospectus, Li Auto stated that 20% of the net proceeds will fund the research and development of high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, platforms, and future models. In contrast, 15% of the funds raised will be used for autonomous driving research and development, and 10% will be used for range-extended range platform development. Judging from the proportion of invested capital, Li Auto is serious about making pure electric vehicles this time.</p><p>Specifically, Li Auto' pure electric technology is divided into several core elements: high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms, thermal management systems, and high-power charging networks.</p><p>Pure electric + fast charging + self-built charging network—does that sound familiar? That's right, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng started down this path several years ago.<b>Now, Li Auto is going to walk this path again.</b></p><p>Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</p><p>In its prospectus, Li Auto also mentioned: \"With the continuous advancement of next-generation electric vehicle technology, we believe this is a good time to introduce high-voltage pure electric platforms and future high-voltage pure electric vehicle models.\"</p><p><b>Is it a good time to start pure electric vehicles now?</b></p><p>From the perspective of the industry chain, the reduction in the cost of power batteries will narrow the cost difference between pure electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles. This gives pure electric vehicles a greater product advantage in the competition at the same price point.</p><p>Taking the NIO ES8 as an example, the 70 kWh battery used in 2018 cost as much as US$12,600, equivalent to RMB 82,000. Not only are the batteries expensive, but the battery life is also poor. The 2018 Nio ES8 has a NEDC range of only 425 kilometers, which actually compromises its usability and high-speed performance.</p><p>The latest Nio 100kWh battery pack, based on this year's cost price, costs approximately $12,300, equivalent to 80,000 RMB, but this gives the 2020 Nio ES8 an NEDC range of 580 kilometers.</p><p><b>In other words, with similar battery costs, which used to only achieve a range of 400 kilometers, can now easily achieve nearly 600 kilometers.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e5a992b903c2c85ec621235f1ff246\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If we say,<b>At the time, the Li Auto ONE was adopted as a pure electric vehicle from the very beginning, which would most likely have ended in failure.</b></p><p>In his book \"Lean Startup Practice,\" Eric Ries proposed the concept of MVP (Minimum Viable Product), which refers to running an entire model through a single Product under market uncertainty. If it succeeds, then invest resources to enter the market on a large scale; if it fails, then quickly adjust the direction. The Ideal ONE does exactly that.</p><p>Because for mid-to-large battery-powered SUVs, the battery system accounts for about 35% of the material cost. Either you sell it for more, or you sacrifice battery capacity. Before 2018, during that period of policy and market uncertainty, Li Auto could only adopt a \"hybrid\" route combining small batteries and fuel generators to successfully weather the crisis and wait until battery costs decreased.</p><p>According to forecasts, with the support of new chemical materials, new manufacturing technologies, and simplified packaging designs, the average price of batteries per kilowatt-hour is expected to reach $85 by 2025. At that stage, long-range, low-cost batteries will allow electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles to compete fairly.</p><p>According to the plan, Li Auto will launch a range-extended full-size luxury intelligent SUV in 2022, and two other range-extended SUVs in 2023. Starting from 2023, it will launch at least two pure electric models every year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb07d82d157a1ce04e97ab13a1d9fb4a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Li Auto Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that the reduction in battery costs benefits everyone. Currently, Li Auto's biggest dilemma lies in the fact that many new products have not yet been officially launched, and its platformization and scaling capabilities have not yet been verified.</p><p>In the early days, in order to quickly launch the Li Auto ONE to the market, it was built on a relatively independent range-extended platform, let alone a pure electric platform. This means that it may not be able to rapidly iterate on new products, expand market size, and reduce marginal costs like Volkswagen's MEB pure electric platform.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9904b42cfb741c93150487ca9dc46\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>XPeng Automotive Hong Kong Stock Exchange Prospectus</span></p><p>Even XPeng vehicles now have a certain degree of platform-based capabilities.</p><p>XPeng has two platforms, Edward and David. The former is responsible for developing mid-to-high-end cars, while the latter is responsible for mid-to-low-end cars. This is why XPeng was able to launch the facelifted G3 and the new P5 less than a year after the launch of the P7. Next year, XPeng will also launch a brand-new mid-to-large SUV.</p><p>This also includes Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, as well as Nio' ES8, ES6, and EC6, all of which also possess certain platform capabilities. At the very least, they have achieved parts sharing, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement across multiple models.</p><p><b>Finally, and most fatally, the ideal R&D investment base is the lowest among the \"three idiots\".</b></p><p>According to financial reports, in 2020, Li Auto spent a total of 1.1 billion yuan on R&D, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while R&D investment accounted for 11.8% of total revenue. Nio' R&D expenses during the same period were 2.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue. XPeng' total R&D expenses for the year were 1.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, accounting for 29.5% of total revenue.</p><p>The high investment in research and development has enabled Nio to make great strides forward in products and technology. The Nio ET7, which will be delivered early next year, is a product of Nio' second-generation platform NP2. At that time, the launch of the 150kWh solid-state battery sparked a wave of solid-state battery investment in the capital market. XPeng's new P5 model uses a dual LiDAR solution, taking the level of autonomous driving hardware to a new level.</p><p>Conversely, the various flashy technologies mentioned in Li Auto' prospectus, such as 4C fast-charging high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms based on third-generation SiC semiconductor materials, thermal management systems for carbon dioxide refrigerants, high-performance fast-charging networks, Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, and so on. At present, it is only in the stage of \"theoretical discussion\".</p><p>As I said before, fate will force you to retrace all the shortcuts you've taken.</p><p><b>Third, if we don't exploit \"retail investors,\" imagine how much the potential will be discounted?</b></p><p>Capital is more interested in listening to stories about the \"second growth curve\" than selling cars.</p><p>Tesla has a good grasp of this. As of the third quarter of 2020, Tesla's cumulative software cash revenue had exceeded $1 billion. According to Anxin Securities' forecast, Tesla's software business revenue is expected to reach nearly $7 billion in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of the automotive business's gross profit.</p><p>As is well known, Tesla's model is to sell hardware products at cost price as much as possible to gain more market share, then use its data advantages to develop software functions such as autonomous driving that can be upgraded on a large scale, and finally earn money from users for software payments through one-time purchases or subscriptions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Adam Jonas recently released a report attempting to value Tesla's software-as-a-service business: \"Tesla's recurring software revenue may exceed the value of its hardware business. Over time, we expect Tesla to launch a wide range of services to users and disclose more financial information.\"<b>In our view, this shift will help drive stock revaluation.</b>”</p><p>However, regarding the paid software model, a powerful tool for valuation growth, Li Auto CEO Li Xiang expressed a relatively conservative attitude in a previous interview:<b>\"We can't just say that we definitely won't provide software services or that we don't need revenue from that.\"</b></p><p>Currently, driver assistance features in Li Auto are included as standard equipment in the vehicle price and do not require additional payment. However, according to Li Xiang, the reason why they are not charging for software subscriptions is because the market size is not large enough, and it is too early to talk about software subscription revenue.</p><p><b>This statement is not without merit, but both XPeng and Nio have already tasted the sweet fruit for the first time.</b></p><p>For example, XPeng Motors' financial report shows that its revenue from the XPilot 3.0 software package for its autonomous driving system was 50 million yuan in 2020, while it reached 30 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, which is more than half of its revenue for the whole of last year.</p><p>NIO's gross profit margin reached an astonishing 19.48% in the first quarter of this year, significantly higher than Li Auto's 17.26% and XPeng' 11.18%. The most direct reason is the support of two subscription-based payments: battery rental and autonomous driving software packages.</p><p>However, the objective difficulty at present is that the timing of the implementation of higher-level autonomous driving functions is still unclear.<b>\"We believe that it will still take 5-10 years for large-scale mass production of L4 autonomous vehicles for open roads. It needs to be supplemented in areas such as road construction and the improvement of laws and regulations.\"</b>Zhang Xiaodan, brand marketing director of Yushi Technology, told Huxiu.</p><p>Therefore, most of the new forces are still in the recruitment stage at this stage. Besides promoting new R&D projects, the main purpose is to prevent talent from flowing into other car companies.</p><p>According to its US stock prospectus, Li Auto had 2,628 employees as of early 2020. However, by early 2021, according to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange prospectus, the ideal team had rapidly expanded to 4,900 people, with a growth rate of over 86%.</p><p>However, the fastest-growing positions are not R&D personnel, but sales. At the beginning of 2020, the Li Auto R&D team had 1,005 people. By the beginning of 2021, the number of R&D personnel had reached 1,633, accounting for 33.3% of the total. In contrast, the number of marketing and sales personnel at Ideal increased rapidly from 475 at the beginning of 2020 to 2,166.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eafb2647e034bd465b1dca1013709d12\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>It's true that Li Auto is selling well, but it's also true that its autonomous driving functions are \"lagging behind\".</b></p><p>When the 2021 Li Auto ONE was released at the end of May, NOA automatic navigation assisted driving was considered ONE of the promotional points, but to this day, the feature has not been pushed to users. This comes six months after XPeng launched a similar NGP autonomous navigation assistance function on January 26 this year. Nio even pushed out the NOP navigation assistance function to users last October.</p><p>Therefore, they are either holding back their ultimate move, or they don't have \"real skills\" yet.</p><p><b>At the end</b></p><p>According to the prospectus, Li Auto spent nearly 80 pages describing 12 risk factors facing the company, one of which is the risk of \"forced delisting,\" which is worth pondering.</p><p>For emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, possessing a large amount of personal information of car owners and domestic road traffic information presents a thorny issue, whether it is subject to review of accounting drafts or disclosure of major information: the possibility of leakage of important data and personal information.</p><p>Not long ago, XPeng Motor Company's Hong Kong IPO prospectus also specifically mentioned a delisting risk warning. Therefore, given the backdrop of data regulation, it is understandable that the market has been lukewarm about Li Auto' IPO.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42da6ba9c55fef51bd537aaa99995a27","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137984871","content_text":"理想汽车-W港股暗盘破发，股价一度跌4%，截止收盘报跌1.78%。\n2015——是80后李想第三次创业，创立理想汽车的年份，同时也是理想汽车港交所上市的股票代码。\n从1999年起，港交所开始推行“股份代号慈善抽签安排计划”，只要向香港公益金捐款，便可自选股份代号。理想汽车内部人士向虎嗅表示，公司确实通过捐款的方式，自选了这个号码。“2015，真的回归初心了。”\n8月12日，理想汽车正式登陆港交所。\n公告显示，理想汽车将在香港公开发售1千万股A类普通股，占全球发售股票10%。按发售价每股118港元计算，此次港股IPO募资约115.5亿港元，公开发售阶段理想汽车-W获5.5倍认购。\n相比之下，一个月前刚登陆港股的小鹏汽车，融资认购倍数高达14.73倍，总融资额高达140亿港元，约合116.52亿元。\n可见，市场对于理想汽车的港交所上市，表现得过于冷静。\n成立六年，却只卖一款车的理想汽车，即便是7月销量超越蔚来、小鹏成为新势力第一，但资本市场并不为“理想”买单。截止8月10日美股收盘，蔚来市值约724.6亿美元，小鹏汽车市值360.6亿美元，理想汽车仅有291.5亿美元。\n“产品做的好不好，很多时候和二级市场没太大关系。 产品做的好，也不见得二级市场会买账，资本看重的是想象空间。理想汽车的纯电车型上市，是关键节点。”一位投资界人士向虎嗅表示。\n理想汽车，不但缺钱、缺新车，还缺好故事。\n一、造出一台爆款，只是偶然？\n1981年出生的李想，比两位70后创业造车人李斌和何小鹏，少了一份老练。在面对舆论事件时，李想经常口无遮拦。\n但论做产品、搞企业，李想却总能后发制人，并且一鸣惊人。2005年，李想创办汽车之家时，市面上早已有多家成熟的汽车网站，其中就包括2000年由李斌创立的易车网。李想只花了3年，让汽车之家跻身行业访问量第一。\n2015年，李想创办理想汽车时，蔚来和小鹏都已经抢先起跑。在创业早期，李想和团队把精力和资源都放在了第一款产品微型纯电小车SEV。但经过长达两年多的研发和测试工作后，最终因为政策的原因，不得不宣告该项目停止。\nSEV陈列在理想汽车总部大厅里\n虽然项目的戛然而止，并没有造成团队分崩离析，但产品研发、量产交付的节奏却远远落后于另外两家新势力。直到2018年10月，理想汽车首款产品理想ONE才姗姗来迟。而彼时，蔚来已经大规模交付ES8车型，并成功的在纽交所完成公司上市。\n经过这两年的摸爬打滚，三家新势力都跑出来各自独特的风格。蔚来以“海底捞式”的服务体系深入人心，小鹏汽车以科技智能化体验打动消费者。不过，理想汽车留给大家的印象，还只是停留在理想ONE这一款产品上。\n8月1日，理想汽车公布7月交付数据显示，7月交付8,589辆理想ONE，同比增长251.3%，环比增长11.4%。这样使得，理想汽车一举超越蔚来的7,931台和小鹏汽车的8,040台交付量，成为造车新势力7月销量第一名。\n在7月新能源总销量榜中，理想ONE还超越特斯拉Model 3、比亚迪汉等车型，排名第四。\n\n之所以能造出爆款，有一定的偶然性。\n理想汽车战略部负责人张辉道出了答案：“如果站在李想本人的角度来看，一定会成。因为他的这些方法论是以前（在汽车之家）就有的——圈定一个非常非常明确的用户群，然后为这群用户去打造产品。”\n不同于蔚来和小鹏，在纯电动车领域直面特斯拉，理想ONE另辟蹊径走了增程式电动的“捷径”，不局限于纯电动的细分领域，而是把自己放到市场规模更大的燃油车领域中。在此之上，理想ONE瞄准家庭用户的需求痛点打造产品，最后以性价比和产品力，持续从传统车企手里抢走用户。\n不过，张辉也坦言，站在2025战略的角度来说，如果用同样的方式去做，后面的结果就变成偶然了。\n“我们预计2025年中国新能源市场销量是800万辆，我们要做到20%的市场占有率，160万辆销量。这个市场是否还存有这么多需求未被满足的用户群？其他人没看到，正好只被我们发现？这几乎不可能。”\n张辉还表示：“我们必须从理想ONE这个偶然成功，走向更多的必然成功，才能实现2025年的目标。”\n实际上，理想汽车的2025年战略目标，是成为中国第一的智能电动车企业——这一目标出自于，今年2月理想汽车CEO李想发布的一份内部信。其中提到，公司2025年的战略目标是在中国占据20%的市场份额，位列中国市场第一。\n对于李想立下的这个Flag，投资人还是表示看好。经纬中国合伙人王华东表示：“希望这次港股上市融资，助力公司早日实现2025年的战略目标，继续推动新能源汽车的不断发展。”\n不过，单一技术路线、单一车型，难以实现这一“宏图伟梦”。\n二、走过的捷径，迟早要还\n据招股书显示，这次理想汽车讲给港交所的新故事，大概分为三块重点：下一代增程式新车型、纯电动新车型、L4级别自动驾驶能力。\n理想汽车港交所招股说明书\n无论是资本市场，还是普通消费者，最期待的还是理想汽车能迈入纯电动市场，造出一款和理想ONE一样，称得上爆款的国产纯电动汽车。\n当然，这也是理想登陆港交所募资的重要原因之一。\n理想在招股书中写道，所得款项净额的20%将为研发高压纯电动汽车技术、平台及未来车型提供资金。相比之下，募资的15%将用于自动驾驶研发、10%将用于增程式平台开发。从投入资金占比看来，理想做纯电动车，这次是动真格了。\n具体来看，理想汽车的纯电技术分为几个核心要素：高倍率电池组、高压平台、热管理系统、高功率充电网络。\n纯电动+快充+自建充电网络，听起来熟不熟悉？没错，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏早几年前，就开始在这条路上走了。如今，理想汽车要把这条路重新走一遍。\n理想汽车港交所招股说明书\n在招股书中，理想还提到：“随着下一代电动车技术不断进步，我们相信这是引入高压纯电动平台及未来高压纯电动车型的好时机。”\n那现在才做纯电，到底是不是好时机呢？\n从产业链的角度来说，动力电池成本的降低，会拉近纯电动汽车和燃油车之间的成本差异。使得在同价位的竞争中，纯电会更具产品力优势。\n以蔚来ES8为例，当初在2018年用的70千瓦时电池，那么光电池组的成本就高达1.26万美元，折合人民币8.2万。不仅电池贵，续航也差。2018款蔚来ES8的NEDC续航仅425公里，实际上使用和高速成绩要再打折扣。\n而最新的蔚来100度电池包，按照今年的成本价计算，一个100度电池组约1.23万美元，折合人民币8万，但这让2020款蔚来ES8的NEDC续航达到580公里。\n换而言之，相近的电池成本，以前只能做到400公里续航，现在可以轻松做到近600公里。\n\n如果说，当时理想ONE一开始就采用纯电，大概率会是失败结局。\nEric Ries在《精益创业实战》中提出过一个MVP（Minimum Viable Product，最小可行产品）概念，指在市场不确定的情况下，通过一款产品跑通整个模式。如果成功了，就投入资源大规模进入市场，如果失败了，就快速调整方向。理想ONE， 做的就是这件事。\n因为，对于中大型电池动力SUV而言，电池系统约占物料成本的35%。要么你就卖得更贵，要么你就牺牲电池容量。站在2018年之前，那个政策和市场不明朗的阶段，理想汽车只能是采用小电池+燃油发电机的“混合动力”路线，顺利度过危险期，等到电池成本降低。\n根据预测，在新的化学材料、新的制造技术及简化包装设计的加持下，电池每千瓦时的平均价格预计将于2025年达85美元。到那个阶段，高续航、低成本的电池，让电动车与燃油车可以公平竞争。\n按规划，理想将在2022年推出增程式全尺寸豪华智能SUV，并在2023年推出另外两款增程式SUV，从2023年起，每年至少推出两款纯电车型。\n理想汽车港交所招股说明书\n不过需要注意的是，电池成本下降是人人受益的。目前，理想最大的困境在于，多款新产品仍未正式亮相，且平台化和规模化能力尚未得到验证。\n早期，为了让理想ONE快速推向市场，它是在一个相对独立的增程式平台打造的产品，那更别提纯电动平台了。这就意味着，它可能还无法像大众MEB纯电平台那样，快速迭代出新产品，扩大市场规模、降低边际成本。\n小鹏汽车港交所招股说明书\n甚至，连现在的小鹏汽车都已具备了一定的平台化能力。\n小鹏旗下Edward、David两个平台，前者负责衍生出中高端车，后者负责中低端车。这也就是为什么，小鹏能在P7推出后一年不到的时间，推出改款G3和新款P5。到明年，小鹏还要推出一款全新的中大型SUV产品。\n再包括特斯拉的Model 3和Model Y，蔚来的ES8、ES6、EC6也都同样具备一定的平台化能力。至少，它们在多款车型上，实现了零部件共用、降本增效的作用。\n最后，最为致命的是，理想的研发投入基础在“三傻”中最低。\n据财报显示，2020年全年，理想汽车研发支出共计为11亿元，同比下降6%，而研发投入占比总营收的11.8%；蔚来同期研发费用为24.87亿元，同比下降43.8%，占总收入的15.3%。小鹏全年的研发费用为17.26亿元，同比下降16.6%，占总收入的比例为29.5%。\n研发的高投入，使得蔚来在产品和技术上实现了大步向前。即将在明年初交付的蔚来ET7，是蔚来第二代平台NP2的产物，当时150kWh固态电池的登场，让资本市场掀起了一股固态电池投资热。而小鹏的新车型P5，用上双激光雷达的方案，让自动驾驶硬件水平再上一个台阶。\n相反，理想汽车招股书中说的各种花哨技术，比如4C快充高倍率电池组、基于第三代SiC半导体材料的高压平台、二氧化碳冷媒的热管理系统、高性能快充网络、L4级自动驾驶能力等等。目前，还只是停留在“纸上谈兵”的阶段。\n还是那句话，所有你走过的捷径，命运会逼你原路重走一遍。\n三、不割“韭菜”，想像空间打几折？\n比起卖车，资本更青睐于倾听“第二增长曲线”的故事。\n对此，特斯拉就拿捏有度。截止2020年第三季度，特斯拉的软件现金收入累积已超10亿美元。据安信证券预测，预计特斯拉2025年软件业务的收入将近70亿美元，占特斯拉汽车业务营收的接近9%，贡献25%的汽车业务毛利。\n众所周知，特斯拉的模式就是，尽可能以成本价出售硬件产品，获得更多的市场保有量，再通过数据优势，研发可大规模升级的自动驾驶等软件功能，最后用一次性购买或者订阅的方式，从用户手中赚软件付费的钱。\n摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas近日发布了一份报告，试图对特斯拉的软件即服务业务进行估值：“特斯拉经常性软件收入价值可能会超过其硬件业务的价值。随着时间的推移，我们预计特斯拉将向用户推出一系列广泛服务，并披露更多财务信息。在我们看来，这种转变将有助于推动股票重新估值。”\n但对于软件付费模式，这一估值增长的利器，理想汽车CEO李想却在此前的采访中表现出相对保守的态度：“我们不能封死说一定不提供软件服务、不需要这方面收入。”\n目前，理想汽车的辅助驾驶功能，是以标配的形式包含在车价中，不需要额外付费。但按照李想的说法，现在不收软件付费钱，是因为市场规模还不够大，谈软件订阅收入为时尚早。\n这个说法，并非没有道理，但小鹏和蔚来都已经初尝甜果。\n比如小鹏汽车的财报显示，2020年其自动驾驶系统XPILOT3.0软件包的收入为5000万元，而今年一季度达到了3000万，已经超过去年全年收入的一半。\n而蔚来这边，在今年一季度毛利率达到了惊人的19.48%，比理想的17.26%，小鹏的11.18%都要高出不少。最直接原因正是电池租用、自动驾驶软件包这两项订阅制付费的助力。\n但目前，客观的困难是，更高级别自动驾驶功能落地时间尚不明确。“面向开放道路的L4无人车规模化量产，我们认为仍需要5-10年。有待于道路建设、法规法律的完善等等方面的补足。”驭势科技品牌市场总监张晓丹告诉虎嗅。\n所以，现阶段绝大部分新势力都还在招兵买马的阶段。除了推进新的研发项目，更多的还是为了避免人才流入其他车企。\n据美股招股书显示，截止2020年初，理想汽车共有雇员2628人。但到2021年初，根据港股招股书，理想团队快速扩充到4900人，增长速度超过86%。\n但增长最快的岗位并非研发人员，而是销售。2020年初，理想汽车研发团队人员1005人，到2021年初，研发人员达到1633人，占总体人数的33.3%。与之相对的是，理想的市场及销售人员从2020年初的475人，快速增加到2166人。\n\n理想卖得好是真，但自动驾驶功能“掉队”也是真。\n在5月底发布2021款理想ONE时，NOA自动导航辅助驾驶被当做是宣传点之一，但直到今天，该功能仍未向用户推送。而这距离今年1月26日，小鹏汽车推出类似的NGP自动导航辅助驾驶功能，已经过去半年之久。蔚来甚至在去年10月，就向用户推送了NOP领航辅助驾驶功能。\n所以，要么就是在憋大招，要么就是还没有“真功夫”。\n写在最后\n据招股书文件显示，理想汽车用近80页的篇幅，讲述了公司面临的12条风险因素，其中一条关于“强制退市”的风险，值得深思。\n对于造车新势力们来说，手握大量车主个人信息和国内道路交通信息，无论是接受会计底稿审查，还是重大信息披露，都涉及到一个棘手问题：存在重要数据、个人信息的泄露的可能性。\n不久前，小鹏汽车港股IPO的招股说明书中，同样也特别提到了退市风险提示。那么，在数据监管的大背景下，市场对于理想汽车的上市表现得冷淡，也是情有可原的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}