Profile - To The Moon

BerryNat

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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·03-21
  $56
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-12-14
  $Mapletree Log Tr(M44U.SI)$ jia you.
  682 Comment
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-12-14
  $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ thank you SQ
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-09-14
  $Arm Holdings(ARM)$ yes, bid lined up!
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-05-16
  Ah so up or down today?
  SIA's Group Wide Load Factor at 88.3% in April, 15.6 Percentage Points Higher Y-O-Y
  The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.
  SIA's Group Wide Load Factor at 88.3% in April, 15.6 Percentage Points Higher Y-O-Y
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-03-20
  $Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ whoa scary drop. Hope everyone here is okay.
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-03-20
  $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ wah drop drop drop.
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-03-17
  Sounds good.
  3 No-Brainer Stocks I'd Buy Right Now Without Hesitation
  These tech giants still deserve inventors' attention.
  3 No-Brainer Stocks I'd Buy Right Now Without Hesitation
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-03-05
  Fingers crossed still.
  NIO: Still Bullish Over The Long Term After Earnings
  SummaryIt appears to me that concerns over margins are overstated - the company very clearly laid ou
  NIO: Still Bullish Over The Long Term After Earnings
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- BerryNatBerryNat
  ·2023-03-04
  Huh drop somemore?
  Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%
  SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc
  Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$Mapletree Log Tr(M44U.SI)$ </a> jia you.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$Mapletree Log Tr(M44U.SI)$ </a> jia you.","text":"$Mapletree Log Tr(M44U.SI)$ jia you.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8170ead73d5951e1098e6c3a723a117","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252028488884512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252028660826352,"gmtCreate":1702564150724,"gmtModify":1702564153619,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ </a> thank you SQ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ </a> thank you SQ","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ thank you SQ","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ae8d01a731af780719baf73bd685ff5","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252028660826352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":219837715738752,"gmtCreate":1694701416959,"gmtModify":1694701419478,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$Arm Holdings(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>yes, bid lined up!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARM\">$Arm Holdings(ARM)$ &nbsp;</a>yes, bid lined up!","text":"$Arm Holdings(ARM)$ yes, bid lined up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/219837715738752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970142244,"gmtCreate":1684209107289,"gmtModify":1684209110483,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ah so up or down today?","listText":"Ah so up or down today?","text":"Ah so up or down today?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970142244","repostId":"2335025843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2335025843","pubTimestamp":1684204367,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2335025843?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-16 10:32","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SIA's Group Wide Load Factor at 88.3% in April, 15.6 Percentage Points Higher Y-O-Y","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2335025843","media":"The Edge Singapore","summary":"The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.</p><p>The Singapore Airlines (SIA) Group reported a group passenger load factor (PLF) of 88.3% for the month of April, 15.6 percentage points higher y-o-y. SIA’s PLF was 87.5% while budget carrier Scoot’s PLF was 90.8%.</p><p>As a group, SIA and Scoot carried a combined 2.7 million passengers in April, 85.5% higher y-o-y, with group passenger capacity up by 36.7% y-o-y.</p><p>Meanwhile, the group’s cargo load factor in April fell by 16.0 percentage points y-o-y to 50.7%. Cargo loads fell by 11.2% y-o-y to 389.6 million tonnes per km due to weaker demand. That said, the group’s capacity expanded by 16.8% as increased passenger services resulted in higher bellyhold capacity.</p><p>According to the group, passenger traffic and load factors were “strong” across all route regions in April due to the “robust leisure demand” during the Easter break. East Asia continued to see healthy growth in demand to China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the airline adds.</p><p>As at end-April, the group’s passenger network covered 112 destinations in 36 countries and territories. SIA served 74 destinations, while Scoot served 61 destinations. Scoot also resumed its services to Haikou, Ningbo, and Xi’an during the month. As at the same period, SIA Group’s cargo network comprised 118 destinations in 38 countries and territories.</p><p>The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.</p><p>Shares in SIA closed flat at $5.90 on May 15.</p></body></html>","source":"edge_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SIA's Group Wide Load Factor at 88.3% in April, 15.6 Percentage Points Higher Y-O-Y</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSIA's Group Wide Load Factor at 88.3% in April, 15.6 Percentage Points Higher Y-O-Y\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-16 10:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/aviation-engineering/sias-group-wide-load-factor-883-april-156-percentage-points-higher-y-o-y?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS><strong>The Edge Singapore</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.The Singapore Airlines (SIA) Group reported a group passenger load factor (PLF) of 88.3% for the month of April, 15.6 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/aviation-engineering/sias-group-wide-load-factor-883-april-156-percentage-points-higher-y-o-y?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"source_url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/aviation-engineering/sias-group-wide-load-factor-883-april-156-percentage-points-higher-y-o-y?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2335025843","content_text":"The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.The Singapore Airlines (SIA) Group reported a group passenger load factor (PLF) of 88.3% for the month of April, 15.6 percentage points higher y-o-y. SIA’s PLF was 87.5% while budget carrier Scoot’s PLF was 90.8%.As a group, SIA and Scoot carried a combined 2.7 million passengers in April, 85.5% higher y-o-y, with group passenger capacity up by 36.7% y-o-y.Meanwhile, the group’s cargo load factor in April fell by 16.0 percentage points y-o-y to 50.7%. Cargo loads fell by 11.2% y-o-y to 389.6 million tonnes per km due to weaker demand. That said, the group’s capacity expanded by 16.8% as increased passenger services resulted in higher bellyhold capacity.According to the group, passenger traffic and load factors were “strong” across all route regions in April due to the “robust leisure demand” during the Easter break. East Asia continued to see healthy growth in demand to China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the airline adds.As at end-April, the group’s passenger network covered 112 destinations in 36 countries and territories. SIA served 74 destinations, while Scoot served 61 destinations. Scoot also resumed its services to Haikou, Ningbo, and Xi’an during the month. As at the same period, SIA Group’s cargo network comprised 118 destinations in 38 countries and territories.The airline will be releasing its FY2023 results after trading hours on May 16.Shares in SIA closed flat at $5.90 on May 15.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943806378,"gmtCreate":1679321660395,"gmtModify":1679321663092,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CS\">$Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ &nbsp;</a>whoa scary drop. Hope everyone here is okay.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CS\">$Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ &nbsp;</a>whoa scary drop. Hope everyone here is okay.","text":"$Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ whoa scary drop. Hope everyone here is okay.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943806378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943140542,"gmtCreate":1679309770586,"gmtModify":1679309773949,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$&nbsp;</a>wah drop drop drop.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$&nbsp;</a>wah drop drop drop.","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ wah drop drop drop.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943140542","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943918064,"gmtCreate":1679032807259,"gmtModify":1679032811882,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds good.","listText":"Sounds good.","text":"Sounds good.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943918064","repostId":"2319735528","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2319735528","pubTimestamp":1679032148,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319735528?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-17 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 No-Brainer Stocks I'd Buy Right Now Without Hesitation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319735528","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These tech giants still deserve inventors' attention.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It&#39;s been a volatile time for investors in many industries, and the tech arena has been particularly wild lately. The tech-heavy <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> tumbled 11% over the past year, proving just how difficult it&#39;s been.</p><p>But despite the tough times, there are some great technology companies out there that I wouldn&#39;t hesitate putting some money toward right now. Here&#39;s why you may want to consider buying <b>Apple</b> (AAPL 0.26%), <b>Amazon</b> (AMZN 1.39%), and <b>Microsoft</b> (MSFT 1.78%)</p><h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></h2><p>Apple fared better than many tech stocks, with its share price down just 1% over the past year. That slide came after the company reported worse-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter, which contained the all-important holiday season.</p><p>But long-term investors shouldn&#39;t write off Apple just yet. First, the company is still a leading player in the smartphone industry and generates a massive amount of profit from its position. For example, Apple accounted for 85% of global smartphone operating income in 2022.</p><p>But smartphones aren&#39;t the company&#39;s only strength. The tech titan could also soon enter a new device market with a mixed-reality headset (a combination of augmented reality and virtual reality). Apple has reportedly already shown its board of directors the device, indicating that it could potentially launch soon.</p><p>The latest estimates from Bloomberg put the number of shipped headset devices at about 1 million in the first year and for the headset to cost about $3,000. The timeline for release could come as early as Apple&#39;s Worldwide Developers Conference in June.</p><p>While sales will likely be slow at first given the high price tag, Apple has a history of its devices becoming blockbuster hits over the long term. And investors shouldn&#39;t underestimate the potential for the headset to eventually drive Apple&#39;s services revenue higher through in-app purchases and subscriptions.</p><p>For investors looking for a large company with an established track record of innovation, picking up some Apple shares could prove to be a great long-term move.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a></h2><p>Microsoft is another no-brainer tech stock to buy because the company is a large player in some fast-growing markets, including cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI).</p><p>While Amazon gets a lot of attention for its cloud dominance, Microsoft shouldn&#39;t be ignored here considering its Azure cloud services continue to nip at Amazon&#39;s heels. Azure&#39;s market share has more than doubled since 2015, and Microsoft&#39;s cloud services now account for 21% of the overall cloud infrastructure market, according to Synergy Research Group.</p><p>Sales from Microsoft&#39;s Azure and other cloud segment climbed 31% in the most recent quarter, and while that was a slower rate than in the recent past, there&#39;s still plenty of more room to grow. The public cloud market is estimated to increase from $525 billion this year to nearly $882 billion by 2027.</p><p>In addition to the cloud, Microsoft has a long-term opportunity in artificial intelligence. The company was an early investor in OpenAI -- the maker of the advanced language model ChatGPT -- and has recently begun integrating the technology into its Bing search engine and other software.</p><p>Microsoft is hoping the next wave of technology is focused on AI and thus far it appears the company is making the right bet. Since its announcement about integrating ChatGPT into its search engine, the Bing app had nearly as many downloads in just one week than it had all of last year. But Microsoft&#39;s AI integration goes far beyond putting the tool into Bing. Earlier this month, the company added the ability for developers to integrate ChatGPT into Azure as well, which could be a boon to its cloud services over the long term.</p><p>This matters because Microsoft is betting on the growing AI market, which IDC estimates will surpass $500 billion this year. The company&#39;s willingness to integrate AI across nearly all of its key software -- from Word to Bing to Azure -- is helping to give Microsoft an early lead in the AI race.</p><h2>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a></h2><p>Despite Amazon&#39;s 36% share price slide over the past 12 months, there are a couple of really good reasons why investors should keep it on their buy list. The first is that the company remains the leading player in the massive cloud computing industry.</p><p>Amazon Web Services (AWS) commands 34% of the cloud computing market right now, outpacing Microsoft&#39;s 21% and Google&#39;s 11%. And that lead is important because the company makes the vast majority of its profits from its cloud segment.</p><p>For the full 2022 year, AWS sales rose 29% to $80.1 billion and operating income increased 23% to $22.8 billion. For comparison&#39;s sake, Amazon generated $316 billion in North American e-commerce revenue and had an operating <i>loss</i> of $2.8 billion over the same period.</p><p>In addition to Amazon&#39;s long-term prospects in cloud computing, the company is also expanding its presence in the fast-growing digital ad market as well. In 2022, Amazon&#39;s ad business generated $37.7 billion in sales, up about 21% from 2021.</p><p>The company now holds about a 10% share of the digital ad market -- behind <b>Meta</b> and Google -- but will capture about 13% by 2026. With the digital ad space expected to grow and Amazon taking a larger portion in the near future, some estimates put its ad business at $85 billion in annual sales just three years from now.</p><h2>Patience is a tech virtue</h2><p>The tech sector is still volatile right now and long-term investors will likely have to be patient to see investments in these companies pay off. But all of them are making significant moves in key sectors, which could set them up for success for years to come.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 No-Brainer Stocks I'd Buy Right Now Without Hesitation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 No-Brainer Stocks I'd Buy Right Now Without Hesitation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-17 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/16/3-no-brainer-stocks-id-buy-right-now-without-hesit/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's been a volatile time for investors in many industries, and the tech arena has been particularly wild lately. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 11% over the past year, proving just how ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/16/3-no-brainer-stocks-id-buy-right-now-without-hesit/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/16/3-no-brainer-stocks-id-buy-right-now-without-hesit/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2319735528","content_text":"It's been a volatile time for investors in many industries, and the tech arena has been particularly wild lately. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 11% over the past year, proving just how difficult it's been.But despite the tough times, there are some great technology companies out there that I wouldn't hesitate putting some money toward right now. Here's why you may want to consider buying Apple (AAPL 0.26%), Amazon (AMZN 1.39%), and Microsoft (MSFT 1.78%)1. AppleApple fared better than many tech stocks, with its share price down just 1% over the past year. That slide came after the company reported worse-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter, which contained the all-important holiday season.But long-term investors shouldn't write off Apple just yet. First, the company is still a leading player in the smartphone industry and generates a massive amount of profit from its position. For example, Apple accounted for 85% of global smartphone operating income in 2022.But smartphones aren't the company's only strength. The tech titan could also soon enter a new device market with a mixed-reality headset (a combination of augmented reality and virtual reality). Apple has reportedly already shown its board of directors the device, indicating that it could potentially launch soon.The latest estimates from Bloomberg put the number of shipped headset devices at about 1 million in the first year and for the headset to cost about $3,000. The timeline for release could come as early as Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in June.While sales will likely be slow at first given the high price tag, Apple has a history of its devices becoming blockbuster hits over the long term. And investors shouldn't underestimate the potential for the headset to eventually drive Apple's services revenue higher through in-app purchases and subscriptions.For investors looking for a large company with an established track record of innovation, picking up some Apple shares could prove to be a great long-term move.2. MicrosoftMicrosoft is another no-brainer tech stock to buy because the company is a large player in some fast-growing markets, including cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI).While Amazon gets a lot of attention for its cloud dominance, Microsoft shouldn't be ignored here considering its Azure cloud services continue to nip at Amazon's heels. Azure's market share has more than doubled since 2015, and Microsoft's cloud services now account for 21% of the overall cloud infrastructure market, according to Synergy Research Group.Sales from Microsoft's Azure and other cloud segment climbed 31% in the most recent quarter, and while that was a slower rate than in the recent past, there's still plenty of more room to grow. The public cloud market is estimated to increase from $525 billion this year to nearly $882 billion by 2027.In addition to the cloud, Microsoft has a long-term opportunity in artificial intelligence. The company was an early investor in OpenAI -- the maker of the advanced language model ChatGPT -- and has recently begun integrating the technology into its Bing search engine and other software.Microsoft is hoping the next wave of technology is focused on AI and thus far it appears the company is making the right bet. Since its announcement about integrating ChatGPT into its search engine, the Bing app had nearly as many downloads in just one week than it had all of last year. But Microsoft's AI integration goes far beyond putting the tool into Bing. Earlier this month, the company added the ability for developers to integrate ChatGPT into Azure as well, which could be a boon to its cloud services over the long term.This matters because Microsoft is betting on the growing AI market, which IDC estimates will surpass $500 billion this year. The company's willingness to integrate AI across nearly all of its key software -- from Word to Bing to Azure -- is helping to give Microsoft an early lead in the AI race.3. AmazonDespite Amazon's 36% share price slide over the past 12 months, there are a couple of really good reasons why investors should keep it on their buy list. The first is that the company remains the leading player in the massive cloud computing industry.Amazon Web Services (AWS) commands 34% of the cloud computing market right now, outpacing Microsoft's 21% and Google's 11%. And that lead is important because the company makes the vast majority of its profits from its cloud segment.For the full 2022 year, AWS sales rose 29% to $80.1 billion and operating income increased 23% to $22.8 billion. For comparison's sake, Amazon generated $316 billion in North American e-commerce revenue and had an operating loss of $2.8 billion over the same period.In addition to Amazon's long-term prospects in cloud computing, the company is also expanding its presence in the fast-growing digital ad market as well. In 2022, Amazon's ad business generated $37.7 billion in sales, up about 21% from 2021.The company now holds about a 10% share of the digital ad market -- behind Meta and Google -- but will capture about 13% by 2026. With the digital ad space expected to grow and Amazon taking a larger portion in the near future, some estimates put its ad business at $85 billion in annual sales just three years from now.Patience is a tech virtueThe tech sector is still volatile right now and long-term investors will likely have to be patient to see investments in these companies pay off. But all of them are making significant moves in key sectors, which could set them up for success for years to come.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940591543,"gmtCreate":1678006393082,"gmtModify":1678006397638,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fingers crossed still.","listText":"Fingers crossed still.","text":"Fingers crossed still.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940591543","repostId":"1165421317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165421317","pubTimestamp":1677983682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165421317?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 10:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Still Bullish Over The Long Term After Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165421317","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIt appears to me that concerns over margins are overstated - the company very clearly laid ou","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>It appears to me that concerns over margins are overstated - the company very clearly laid out why margin contracted and why it believes it&#39;s only temporary.</li><li>The decision to release a number of products over a relatively short period of time is having a negative impact in the short term, but over time, it should pay off.</li><li>The long-term strategy of management, in my view, is highly underrated.</li><li>Disciplined position sizing and dollar-cost averaging are the way to play NIO at this time.</li></ul><p>The latest earnings numbers from NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), resulted in the EV maker to fall further out of favor with investors and analysts, as contracting margins and lower-than-expected short-term sales expectations were underwhelming to many.</p><p>NIO has transitioned from a high-flying, volatile trading stock, to a company that has a long-term vision in place that will take time to fully mature. I think the market has yet to catch up with that reality and continues to overly focus on the short-term performance of the company, when it needs to look at the patient strategy the company has laid out and is working toward executing on.</p><p>In regard to concerns about shrinking margins, I think the market overresponded to that because management very clearly explained the reasoning behind it, and why it believes it&#39;ll significantly improve by the latter part of calendar 2023.</p><p>As for disappointment over short-term delivery guidance, that is primarily related to the company transitioning to new product lines that should ramp up in the second half of 2023, and if the company executes on its plan, the market should respond positively to the increase in production and deliveries.</p><p>In this article, we&#39;ll look at some of its recent numbers, what impacted margins, the safest way to take a position in NIO, and why I remain very positive on the company over the long haul.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652d0bf1803200c0ed34a6da327983c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Some of the numbers</b></p><p>Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $2.33 billion, missing by $230.00 million, but up 62.2 percent year-over-year. Total revenue for the full year 2022 was $7.14 billion, up 36.3 percent year-over-year.</p><p>Vehicle sales were $2.14 billion in the reporting period, climbing 60.2 percent in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2021. Full year 2022 vehicle sales came in at $6.6 billion, a gain of 37.2 percent over the full year 2021.</p><p>Vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter of 2022 were 40,052, an increase of 60 percent year-over-year, and up 26.7 percent sequentially. For the full year 2022, NIO delivered 122,486 vehicles, up 34 percent from the full year 2021. Management guided for 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles to be delivered in the first quarter of 2023, representing a potential increase in the range of 20.3 percent to 28.1 percent.</p><p>Total revenue for the first quarter of 2023 is projected to come in at a range of $1.58 billion to $1.67 billion, representing an increase of 10.2 percent to 16.5 percent year-over-year.</p><p>By most standards, those would be considered great numbers for most companies, but because expectations have been so high, they were taken as a negative by many investors and analysts; I&#39;m not among them. Taking into consideration its growth strategy, I see them as being very favorable considering the transition to enhanced models at this time.</p><p>Gross profit in the fourth quarter was $90.1 million, down 63.4 percent year-over-year. Gross margin fell from 17.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.</p><p>Net loss in the reporting period was -$(847.7) million, or -$(0.51) per share.</p><p>At the end of calendar 2022, the company held Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits of $6.6 billion.</p><p><b>Vehicle margin</b></p><p>Vehicle margin was probably the most concerning and talked about concern from the fourth quarter earnings report, so it&#39;s worth looking a little deeper into the why of it. First, vehicle margin in the fourth quarter was 6.8 percent, down 16.4 percent sequentially, and down 20.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The decline in vehicle margin was attributed to three things: &#34;the increased inventory provisions, accelerated depreciation on production facilities, and the losses on purchase commitments for the existing generation of ES8, ES6, and EC6.&#34;</p><p>The transition to new generation ES8, ES6, EC6&#39;s had a detrimental impact on vehicle margin in the fourth quarter of 2022. With the new generation models expected to start being delivered in the second quarter of 2023, it&#39;s apparent consumers are holding off on buying the previous generation of the models, resulting in a 6.7 impact on vehicle margin. Without that impact, vehicle margin would have been 13.5 percent.</p><p>With the temporary, unfavorable mix, a larger number of lower-margin ET5s were sold, also putting downward pressure on margins.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023 management expects there to be continual pressure on vehicle gross margin, primarily from the transition to the new generation models that will be built on its new NT2.0 platform.</p><p>Another related factor having an impact on vehicle margin is the additional costs associated with modifying the tooling on its production line at its Factory 1. That should start to improve after the first quarter modifications are completed. NIO CEO William Li said he is confident that the company will be able to bring vehicle gross margin back to a range of 18 percent to 20 percent by the end of 2023.</p><p>The catalysts he sees bringing that about are, the delivery of new generation models that come with higher vehicle gross margins, an increase in overall product deliveries in the third quarter, and a reduction in costs associated with the drop in prices of raw materials. With product deliveries increasing, the company expects the amortization rate related to fixed costs to improve along with that.</p><p><b>It&#39;s a long-term game</b></p><p>I think many investors and analysts aren&#39;t factoring in the long-term strategy NIO management is engaged in and is instead focusing too much on the short-term results of the company. That isn&#39;t anything new, but in the case of NIO, I think the market isn&#39;t taking into account the fact the company is releasing a lot of models over a relatively short period of time.</p><p>What normally happens under those circumstances is, in the near term, a company will experience a slowdown in growth because it takes time for the new models to take hold. In other words, focusing on only a small number of models usually results in faster short-term growth in a growth sector, while introducing a wider range of models normally results in it taking longer for the portfolio to gain traction.</p><p>So in the short term, a company can experience some pain because of higher costs and a reduction in sales when the market waits for the new models to be released. That&#39;s where NIO is at this time, and why, in my opinion, it&#39;s going through a lot of the pain it&#39;s currently going through, and why it appears to be underperforming in a disproportionate way.</p><p>How I&#39;ve looked at the company for some time now is, it&#39;s laying a foundation for long-term growth, that once its production capacity increases, and it starts to deliver a strong portfolio of new models, it&#39;s going to take off in deliveries and sales, which could surprise the market at the pace it takes off once it has all the pieces in place. It appears that, by the end of 2023, the company should be close to running on all cylinders.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>It wasn&#39;t surprising to see some analysts downgrade the stock after the latest earnings report, but that doesn&#39;t phase me at all when considering the very visible strategy the company has in place, and management&#39;s commitment to continue to execute on its plan.</p><p>With the short-term headwinds remaining in play, and uncertainty as to how the market will respond when the numbers come out for the first quarter of 2023, I see the safest way to play NIO for investors considering taking a position, is to dollar-cost average on a consistent basis, and be sure to be disciplined in position sizing.</p><p>Since the share price was recently near its 52-week low of $8.375, it represents an excellent entry point for those incorporating a dollar-cost average investment strategy. I think the stock could fall further if the first quarter numbers are worse than expected, but that&#39;s not a guarantee. For that reason, taking a position at these price levels make sense, and in fact, limits the upside risk for investors that have the potential to lower their cost basis over time if the stock does drop further.</p><p>The EV market is going to continue to grow, and I believe NIO is going to be a solid performer in the market over the long haul. It&#39;s positioning itself well to compete for different demographics at various price points, and once it launches its various products throughout 2023, especially in the second half, I think it&#39;s going to be on the way to fulfilling the potential it has.</p><p>Because I believe the company is in it for the long term and has a solid business plan, I consider it a set-it-and-forget-it holding that I no longer watch on a daily basis like I did in the past when the volatility provided great swing trade and day trade opportunities.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Still Bullish Over The Long Term After Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Still Bullish Over The Long Term After Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-05 10:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584463-nio-still-bullish-over-the-long-term-after-earnings><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIt appears to me that concerns over margins are overstated - the company very clearly laid out why margin contracted and why it believes it's only temporary.The decision to release a number of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584463-nio-still-bullish-over-the-long-term-after-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584463-nio-still-bullish-over-the-long-term-after-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1165421317","content_text":"SummaryIt appears to me that concerns over margins are overstated - the company very clearly laid out why margin contracted and why it believes it's only temporary.The decision to release a number of products over a relatively short period of time is having a negative impact in the short term, but over time, it should pay off.The long-term strategy of management, in my view, is highly underrated.Disciplined position sizing and dollar-cost averaging are the way to play NIO at this time.The latest earnings numbers from NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), resulted in the EV maker to fall further out of favor with investors and analysts, as contracting margins and lower-than-expected short-term sales expectations were underwhelming to many.NIO has transitioned from a high-flying, volatile trading stock, to a company that has a long-term vision in place that will take time to fully mature. I think the market has yet to catch up with that reality and continues to overly focus on the short-term performance of the company, when it needs to look at the patient strategy the company has laid out and is working toward executing on.In regard to concerns about shrinking margins, I think the market overresponded to that because management very clearly explained the reasoning behind it, and why it believes it'll significantly improve by the latter part of calendar 2023.As for disappointment over short-term delivery guidance, that is primarily related to the company transitioning to new product lines that should ramp up in the second half of 2023, and if the company executes on its plan, the market should respond positively to the increase in production and deliveries.In this article, we'll look at some of its recent numbers, what impacted margins, the safest way to take a position in NIO, and why I remain very positive on the company over the long haul.TradingViewSome of the numbersRevenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $2.33 billion, missing by $230.00 million, but up 62.2 percent year-over-year. Total revenue for the full year 2022 was $7.14 billion, up 36.3 percent year-over-year.Vehicle sales were $2.14 billion in the reporting period, climbing 60.2 percent in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2021. Full year 2022 vehicle sales came in at $6.6 billion, a gain of 37.2 percent over the full year 2021.Vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter of 2022 were 40,052, an increase of 60 percent year-over-year, and up 26.7 percent sequentially. For the full year 2022, NIO delivered 122,486 vehicles, up 34 percent from the full year 2021. Management guided for 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles to be delivered in the first quarter of 2023, representing a potential increase in the range of 20.3 percent to 28.1 percent.Total revenue for the first quarter of 2023 is projected to come in at a range of $1.58 billion to $1.67 billion, representing an increase of 10.2 percent to 16.5 percent year-over-year.By most standards, those would be considered great numbers for most companies, but because expectations have been so high, they were taken as a negative by many investors and analysts; I'm not among them. Taking into consideration its growth strategy, I see them as being very favorable considering the transition to enhanced models at this time.Gross profit in the fourth quarter was $90.1 million, down 63.4 percent year-over-year. Gross margin fell from 17.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.Net loss in the reporting period was -$(847.7) million, or -$(0.51) per share.At the end of calendar 2022, the company held Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits of $6.6 billion.Vehicle marginVehicle margin was probably the most concerning and talked about concern from the fourth quarter earnings report, so it's worth looking a little deeper into the why of it. First, vehicle margin in the fourth quarter was 6.8 percent, down 16.4 percent sequentially, and down 20.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021.The decline in vehicle margin was attributed to three things: \"the increased inventory provisions, accelerated depreciation on production facilities, and the losses on purchase commitments for the existing generation of ES8, ES6, and EC6.\"The transition to new generation ES8, ES6, EC6's had a detrimental impact on vehicle margin in the fourth quarter of 2022. With the new generation models expected to start being delivered in the second quarter of 2023, it's apparent consumers are holding off on buying the previous generation of the models, resulting in a 6.7 impact on vehicle margin. Without that impact, vehicle margin would have been 13.5 percent.With the temporary, unfavorable mix, a larger number of lower-margin ET5s were sold, also putting downward pressure on margins.In the first quarter of 2023 management expects there to be continual pressure on vehicle gross margin, primarily from the transition to the new generation models that will be built on its new NT2.0 platform.Another related factor having an impact on vehicle margin is the additional costs associated with modifying the tooling on its production line at its Factory 1. That should start to improve after the first quarter modifications are completed. NIO CEO William Li said he is confident that the company will be able to bring vehicle gross margin back to a range of 18 percent to 20 percent by the end of 2023.The catalysts he sees bringing that about are, the delivery of new generation models that come with higher vehicle gross margins, an increase in overall product deliveries in the third quarter, and a reduction in costs associated with the drop in prices of raw materials. With product deliveries increasing, the company expects the amortization rate related to fixed costs to improve along with that.It's a long-term gameI think many investors and analysts aren't factoring in the long-term strategy NIO management is engaged in and is instead focusing too much on the short-term results of the company. That isn't anything new, but in the case of NIO, I think the market isn't taking into account the fact the company is releasing a lot of models over a relatively short period of time.What normally happens under those circumstances is, in the near term, a company will experience a slowdown in growth because it takes time for the new models to take hold. In other words, focusing on only a small number of models usually results in faster short-term growth in a growth sector, while introducing a wider range of models normally results in it taking longer for the portfolio to gain traction.So in the short term, a company can experience some pain because of higher costs and a reduction in sales when the market waits for the new models to be released. That's where NIO is at this time, and why, in my opinion, it's going through a lot of the pain it's currently going through, and why it appears to be underperforming in a disproportionate way.How I've looked at the company for some time now is, it's laying a foundation for long-term growth, that once its production capacity increases, and it starts to deliver a strong portfolio of new models, it's going to take off in deliveries and sales, which could surprise the market at the pace it takes off once it has all the pieces in place. It appears that, by the end of 2023, the company should be close to running on all cylinders.ConclusionIt wasn't surprising to see some analysts downgrade the stock after the latest earnings report, but that doesn't phase me at all when considering the very visible strategy the company has in place, and management's commitment to continue to execute on its plan.With the short-term headwinds remaining in play, and uncertainty as to how the market will respond when the numbers come out for the first quarter of 2023, I see the safest way to play NIO for investors considering taking a position, is to dollar-cost average on a consistent basis, and be sure to be disciplined in position sizing.Since the share price was recently near its 52-week low of $8.375, it represents an excellent entry point for those incorporating a dollar-cost average investment strategy. I think the stock could fall further if the first quarter numbers are worse than expected, but that's not a guarantee. For that reason, taking a position at these price levels make sense, and in fact, limits the upside risk for investors that have the potential to lower their cost basis over time if the stock does drop further.The EV market is going to continue to grow, and I believe NIO is going to be a solid performer in the market over the long haul. It's positioning itself well to compete for different demographics at various price points, and once it launches its various products throughout 2023, especially in the second half, I think it's going to be on the way to fulfilling the potential it has.Because I believe the company is in it for the long term and has a solid business plan, I consider it a set-it-and-forget-it holding that I no longer watch on a daily basis like I did in the past when the volatility provided great swing trade and day trade opportunities.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940678314,"gmtCreate":1677900907939,"gmtModify":1677900911146,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huh drop somemore?","listText":"Huh drop somemore?","text":"Huh drop somemore?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940678314","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We&#39;ve seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.</li><li>Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&amp;P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.</li><li>However, I&#39;m highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.</li><li>Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.</li><li>Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my &#34;all-in&#34; bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my &#34;Stocks Are Heading Higher&#34; article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.</p><p>Moreover, we&#39;re seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.</p><p>SPX - At Another Inflection Point<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e4c150b976cb211ccb6f5f67170f37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com)</p><p>The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there&#39;s a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.</p><p><b>There&#39;s a Chance</b></p><p>Although the probability is relatively low, SPX&#39;s support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it&#39;s premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.</p><p>Why Inflation Remains a Big Problem</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10057ace35cbf6a1921aa9cae02f6d0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There&#39;s been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed&#39;s target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January&#39;s CPI came in hotter than expected.</p><p><b>The Recent CPI Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7c22ef79685f6f2789bc39233660b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI (January)(Investing.com )</p><p>The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month&#39;s reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it&#39;s not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.</p><p><b>PCE Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100421b03f101dd14bf7039f266d679c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PCE inflation(Investing.com )</p><p>The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month&#39;s 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it&#39;s the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.</p><p><b>Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?</b></p><p>Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as &#34;transitory&#34; as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.</p><p><b>The Worsening Economy</b></p><p>Have you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they&#39;re not likely to go away anytime soon. Let&#39;s put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that&#39;s come out recently.</p><p>Just from the start of February, we&#39;ve seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.</p><p><b>Is the Labor Market an Exception?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada4e0ca1e2a60decab85dee6c4f940a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jobs data(Investing.com)</p><p>The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We&#39;ve recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Not Cheap Anymore</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen many companies&#39; earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we&#39;ve seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.</p><p><b>Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0cae380760ab0af564889c1e421d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E(multpl.com)</p><p>We&#39;ve seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted &#34;CAPE&#34;) ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.</p><p>Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom &#34;all-in&#34; buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}