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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-09-09
RIP
Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96
见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。
Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96
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Jesscy
Jesscy
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2022-09-08
RIP
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-09-08
Thanks for sharing
It's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple
昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。
It's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-08-23
Thanks for sharing
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-08-14
Good points
With rapid growth and increasing market size, AMD is still trapped in the "low valuation trap"?
摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro
With rapid growth and increasing market size, AMD is still trapped in the "low valuation trap"?
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-07-27
Thanks for sharing
Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent "black swans"?
不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大
Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent "black swans"?
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-07-27
Good points
With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?
摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与
With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-07-02
Recover to what level ?
Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?
Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analy
Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?
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Jesscy
Jesscy
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2022-06-05
PLTR worth to invest
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Jesscy
Jesscy
·
2022-06-03
Great
What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released
JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每
What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released
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The longest standby queen in history who witnessed the rise and fall of Britain</b></a></p><p>On September 8th, local time, Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier that day, Buckingham Palace issued a statement saying that Queen Elizabeth II was under medical supervision because doctors were worried about her health. The statement said that the Queen is in good condition and is under medical supervision at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.</p><p>Then, the Queen's closest family rushed to Balmoral Castle. Since the end of last year, the Queen of England has reduced her public appearances due to her health and other conditions. On the 6th, 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II accepted Johnson's resignation at Balmoral Castle and officially appointed Truss as the new Prime Minister.</p><p>Elizabeth II was born in London on April 21, 1926. Princess Elizabeth became Queen in 1952 at the age of 25 when her father, King George VI, died. From Sir Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, the Queen saw 15 British prime ministers during her reign. In 2015, she became the longest-reigning British monarch in history, breaking a record set by her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The official obituary of the royal family</span></p><p>According to the official account of the British royal family, after the death of Elizabeth II, Prince Charles immediately became the new monarch of Britain. The King and Queen will remain in Balmoral tonight and return to London tomorrow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elizabeth II was born on April 21, 1926, ascended the throne in 1952 and became Britain's longest-reigning monarch in September 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen looked slightly haggard and unable to move as she met her outgoing defence minister on February 16</p><p>On September 8th, Buckingham Palace said that the Queen's doctors expressed \"concern\" about the Queen's health and advised the Queen to \"continue to be under medical supervision\".</p><p>The Queen of England has been plagued by health problems since October last year. In February this year, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her 70th anniversary on the throne.</p><p>In the same month, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II Novel Coronavirus had tested positive and had mild symptoms.</p><p>Earlier, Crown Prince Charles of England and his wife Camilla Novel Coronavirus tested positive.</p><p>After COVID-19 recovered, the Queen did not return to everyone's vision, and it was difficult to stand and walk.</p><p>On March 14th this year, the Queen was unexpectedly absent at the Commonwealth Memorial Day, and the whole of Britain was surprised.</p><p>The queen who \"wants to attend the anniversary at all costs\" is really in poor health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen has always been tough, and she will never use a wheelchair if she can stand. However, in the last part of her life, the staff installed an elevator and a safety wheelchair in her residence.</p><p>As you still remember, on April 9 last year,<b>Prince Philip, who walked hand in hand with the Queen for 74 years, died,</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A minute of silence was observed across the UK, and 30 members of the royal family held a 50-minute funeral for him inside Windsor Castle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The queen, dressed in black, sat in the car and wept silently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>After that, the Queen's health also frequently exposed problems.</b></p><p>One month after Philip's death, the royal family returned to work in an all-round way,</p><p>When the Queen attended the opening ceremony of Parliament, she was suddenly thin. It can be seen that she was in a low mood and lost her former smile and appearance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In September, the Queen refused emergency knee surgery that made it difficult to walk,</p><p>On October 12, she first appeared on crutches while attending the Royal British Legion Centennial Ceremony,</p><p>The scene caused an uproar and sparked speculation about the Queen's health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although there are two pet dogs at home, the queen still looks haggard and has lost her spiritual support.</p><p>On October 20th, Buckingham Palace issued a statement,<b>Said that at the advice of doctors, the Queen canceled her visit to Northern Ireland scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.</b></p><p>The Queen will follow the doctor's advice to rest well in the next few days, although she is reluctant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That night, however, the Queen went straight to the hospital,</p><p>This is the first time she has been hospitalized in the past eight years, and the last time she suffered from stomach problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As soon as this breaking news came out, even the British people who gradually deviated from the royal family were anxious.</p><p>\"Is the Queen alright?\"</p><p>According to the report,<b>The Queen's health issues have nothing to do with Covid.</b></p><p>After a string of health accidents, the Queen's doctor reminded her, \"It's time to stop drinking.\"</p><p>The queen likes to drink, drinking martinis every night for decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although her health went from bad to worse, the Queen's mental condition was still very good at that time,</p><p>In October, she also refused the title of \"Old Man of the Year\" offered by a magazine.</p><p>Because she thinks she's still young.</p><p>According to the British Associated Press, although she was trapped at home, she still insisted on doing some \"easy official business\".</p><p>On November 14th, the pain struck again-</p><p><b>The Queen was absent from the Memorial Day ceremony because of a sprained back.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Buckingham Palace spokesman said that her health deteriorated further and she was unable to attend.</p><p>Pierce Morgan, a famous British host, said, \"The Queen's real health is more serious than Buckingham Palace said.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Queen Elizabeth II is currently the oldest and oldest monarch in the world.</b></p><p><b>It can be described as \"ultra-long standby\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since succeeding to the throne in 1952, she has consumed 13 American presidents. All the way from Truman to Trump. Witnessed the assassination of Kennedy, the Watergate Incident, the death of Princess Diana, and a series of historical events.</p><p>Almost witnessed the development of the whole new China...</p><p><b>It's a walking antique.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the current Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth and the highest leader of Parliament.</p><p>The full name is \"Elizabeth II, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and other Territories and Dependencies by the grace of God, Head of the Commonwealth and Defender of the State Church (Anglican Church).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>She fell in love with her cousin when she was young.</b>At that time, our queen was only 21 years old, innocent, innocent, young and ignorant. So quietly fell in love.</p><p>But strictly speaking, the Queen's marriage is actually a kinship marriage. Because she and her husband, Prince Philip, are actually great-grandchildren of Queen Victoria, they have been called cousins until they got married.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In fact, when Philip was not a prince, our Her Lady Queen had already secretly moved his heart to him.</b>At that time, Prince Philip was still \"Captain Philip Mountbatten\".</p><p><b>Yes, he was the nephew of the famous General Mountbatten, Louis Mountbatten.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Speaking of which, I simply have to talk about the chaotic blood relationship of European royal families.</p><p>Because European countries are geographically very close and have a long history of intermarriage. Therefore, in the end, just caught any of them and it was the same family decades ago. It's hard not to be related.</p><p>Speaking of which, I have to mention the romantic Edward VIII through the ages. He is simply the most famous model in British history of loving beauty but not loving mountains and rivers.</p><p><b>However, if Edward VIII didn't love beauties back then, it might not be Elizabeth II sitting on the throne now.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding this strange love, Madonna once directed a film called \"W.E.\". The English title of the movie is the abbreviation of Mrs. Simpson and Prince Edward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson, the \"beauty\" who made him give up his country</p><p>It is said that Edward VIII and George VI are the eldest and second sons of George V respectively.</p><p>Edward succeeded to the throne in early 1936. Before he could be crowned, in December 1936, he signed an abdication declaration because he disobeyed the church and cabinet and insisted on marrying the divorced Mrs. Simpson. As Duke of Windsor, he later said on national radio:</p><p><b>I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.</b></p><p><b>After that, Edwards and his wife spent most of the rest of their lives in France, and didn't return to England until their death.</b></p><p>Of course, there are different opinions on the reasons for Edward VIII's abdication. Some people say that it is because he is biased towards the Nazis, so I won't go into details here.</p><p>It is said that after Edward VIII abdicated, his younger brother Albert, George VI, had naturally returned to China to inherit the throne.</p><p>George VI is the prototype of the stuttering king in The King's Speech. He published a national broadcast encouraging people to resist the Germans in World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stills of The King's Speech</p><p>George VI's real name is Albert, which is a German name. Later, during World War II, he changed his name to George in order to establish a clear relationship with Germany.</p><p>George VI was named Albert before because Queen Victoria's husband was called Albert. The husband of Queen Victoria's life is Prince Albert of Gotha, Coburg, Saxony, who was born in Germany.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>George VI</p><p>Queen Victoria once demanded that among the monarchs after her, someone must have Albert in his name to remember her love for her husband.</p><p>This unwritten rule was waived after Elizabeth II succeeded to the throne. Elizabeth II is the great granddaughter of Queen Victoria,<b>In other words, Elizabeth called Queen Victoria: Grandma Zu Tai.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, Queen Elizabeth II can be regarded as changing her ancestral precepts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II married in 1947 to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, and began a 74-year journey of showing love.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, in the two photos, their postures and expressions are almost the same, but the shooting time is half a century apart. Well, you also want to show love for half a century?</p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, have four children, three of whom are sons and one is a daughter, namely the eldest son Charles, the second son Andrew, the youngest son Edward and the daughter Anne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II is a devout Christian who abides by the law, so she refused to recognize Charles's mistress Camilla for many years.</p><p>However, her son doesn't value promises as much as she does. The gossip between her son Prince Charles and daughter-in-law Princess Diana is world-famous.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Princess Diana, the daughter-in-law who gives the royal family a headache</p><p>Prince Andrew, the Queen's favorite son, is by no means a fuel-efficient lamp. After being deeply involved in the sexual assault scandal, he was deprived of his military rank and royal patron status by the Queen.</p><p>However, it is said that the Queen's grandchildren are still low-key, except Prince Harry, the youngest son of Princess Diana, who is riddled with various scandals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prince Harry</p><p>The Queen's birthday is on April 21st, but on April 20th, the Queen visited the Royal Mail Office and received a series of stamps.</p><p>Which stage of the Queen's life does the above legend belong to, please correspond to it yourself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the 13 American presidents consumed by Elizabeth II, they are:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy John F Kennedy 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson Lyndon Johnson 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon Richard Nixon 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford Gerald Ford 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush George Herbert Walker Bush 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton Bill Clinton 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush George Walker Bush 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama Barack Obama 2009-2017</p><p>And the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump Donald Trump 2017-2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the tradition in British history, as a crowned monarch, the Queen will not abdicate before her death.</p><p>However, there were actually arrangements and rehearsals about her death a long time ago. This plan is code-named<b>\"London Bridge\"</b>。</p><p>The death of the king of England, unlike other countries, must first set a secret code.</p><p>The predecessor King George VI of England died with the code word \"Hyde Park Corner\". Correspondingly, Queen Elizabeth II's code word was \"London Bridge is down\". This code has existed since the queen ascended the throne, just as ancient emperors built mausoleums in advance.</p><p><b>According to this plan, once the Queen dies, the flags of Britain will be flown at half-mast, and the whole country will enter a 12-day mourning day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Immediately after the report was received by the British Foreign Office, which was responsible for conveying the news to the Commonwealth countries.</p><p>The media working with the royal family will also receive the news at the first time, but not by telephone or text message, but hanging above the studio<b>A blue light</b>。</p><p>This blue lamp was designed during the Cold War. Its original purpose was to report the Soviet Union's nuclear war as soon as possible, and race against time to let people enter the asylum procedure.</p><p>But in peacetime, once the blue light comes on, it doesn't mean anything else but the death of the queen. TV stations should quickly get ready, stop all entertainment programs and play mourning music.</p><p>The black mourning clothes prepared for the reading of the obituary are also ready in the office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Theoretically, the British throne can't have a vacuum period, so once the Queen dies, Prince Charles, the \"longest standby\" in history, will automatically become the new British king as the crown prince.</p><p>However, his official succession to the throne still requires a series of official procedures. He will take a public oath of loyalty in Parliament and the Church of England before St James's Palace officially declares him king.</p><p>After Prince Charles became king, the lyrics of Britain's national anthem \"God Save My Queen\" had to be changed accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>British people are already very familiar with the funeral process of the royal family, and even the Queen herself participated in the preview, pointing out the shortcomings.</p><p>However, she herself is not indifferent.</p><p>A few years ago, the queen, who likes keeping corgis very much, announced that she would no longer keep any pets. Foreign media reported that the Queen of England was slowly saying goodbye to her parents, childhood and memories.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, the most uncomfortable part of this is the Queen's family.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her legendary life has come to an end, and right and wrong can only be left to later generations to comment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQueen Elizabeth II dies at 96\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">央视新闻客户端</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-09 01:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1193358135\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Elizabeth II! The longest standby queen in history who witnessed the rise and fall of Britain</b></a></p><p>On September 8th, local time, Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier that day, Buckingham Palace issued a statement saying that Queen Elizabeth II was under medical supervision because doctors were worried about her health. The statement said that the Queen is in good condition and is under medical supervision at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.</p><p>Then, the Queen's closest family rushed to Balmoral Castle. Since the end of last year, the Queen of England has reduced her public appearances due to her health and other conditions. On the 6th, 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II accepted Johnson's resignation at Balmoral Castle and officially appointed Truss as the new Prime Minister.</p><p>Elizabeth II was born in London on April 21, 1926. Princess Elizabeth became Queen in 1952 at the age of 25 when her father, King George VI, died. From Sir Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, the Queen saw 15 British prime ministers during her reign. In 2015, she became the longest-reigning British monarch in history, breaking a record set by her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The official obituary of the royal family</span></p><p>According to the official account of the British royal family, after the death of Elizabeth II, Prince Charles immediately became the new monarch of Britain. The King and Queen will remain in Balmoral tonight and return to London tomorrow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elizabeth II was born on April 21, 1926, ascended the throne in 1952 and became Britain's longest-reigning monarch in September 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen looked slightly haggard and unable to move as she met her outgoing defence minister on February 16</p><p>On September 8th, Buckingham Palace said that the Queen's doctors expressed \"concern\" about the Queen's health and advised the Queen to \"continue to be under medical supervision\".</p><p>The Queen of England has been plagued by health problems since October last year. In February this year, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her 70th anniversary on the throne.</p><p>In the same month, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II Novel Coronavirus had tested positive and had mild symptoms.</p><p>Earlier, Crown Prince Charles of England and his wife Camilla Novel Coronavirus tested positive.</p><p>After COVID-19 recovered, the Queen did not return to everyone's vision, and it was difficult to stand and walk.</p><p>On March 14th this year, the Queen was unexpectedly absent at the Commonwealth Memorial Day, and the whole of Britain was surprised.</p><p>The queen who \"wants to attend the anniversary at all costs\" is really in poor health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen has always been tough, and she will never use a wheelchair if she can stand. However, in the last part of her life, the staff installed an elevator and a safety wheelchair in her residence.</p><p>As you still remember, on April 9 last year,<b>Prince Philip, who walked hand in hand with the Queen for 74 years, died,</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A minute of silence was observed across the UK, and 30 members of the royal family held a 50-minute funeral for him inside Windsor Castle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The queen, dressed in black, sat in the car and wept silently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>After that, the Queen's health also frequently exposed problems.</b></p><p>One month after Philip's death, the royal family returned to work in an all-round way,</p><p>When the Queen attended the opening ceremony of Parliament, she was suddenly thin. It can be seen that she was in a low mood and lost her former smile and appearance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In September, the Queen refused emergency knee surgery that made it difficult to walk,</p><p>On October 12, she first appeared on crutches while attending the Royal British Legion Centennial Ceremony,</p><p>The scene caused an uproar and sparked speculation about the Queen's health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although there are two pet dogs at home, the queen still looks haggard and has lost her spiritual support.</p><p>On October 20th, Buckingham Palace issued a statement,<b>Said that at the advice of doctors, the Queen canceled her visit to Northern Ireland scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.</b></p><p>The Queen will follow the doctor's advice to rest well in the next few days, although she is reluctant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That night, however, the Queen went straight to the hospital,</p><p>This is the first time she has been hospitalized in the past eight years, and the last time she suffered from stomach problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As soon as this breaking news came out, even the British people who gradually deviated from the royal family were anxious.</p><p>\"Is the Queen alright?\"</p><p>According to the report,<b>The Queen's health issues have nothing to do with Covid.</b></p><p>After a string of health accidents, the Queen's doctor reminded her, \"It's time to stop drinking.\"</p><p>The queen likes to drink, drinking martinis every night for decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although her health went from bad to worse, the Queen's mental condition was still very good at that time,</p><p>In October, she also refused the title of \"Old Man of the Year\" offered by a magazine.</p><p>Because she thinks she's still young.</p><p>According to the British Associated Press, although she was trapped at home, she still insisted on doing some \"easy official business\".</p><p>On November 14th, the pain struck again-</p><p><b>The Queen was absent from the Memorial Day ceremony because of a sprained back.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Buckingham Palace spokesman said that her health deteriorated further and she was unable to attend.</p><p>Pierce Morgan, a famous British host, said, \"The Queen's real health is more serious than Buckingham Palace said.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Queen Elizabeth II is currently the oldest and oldest monarch in the world.</b></p><p><b>It can be described as \"ultra-long standby\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since succeeding to the throne in 1952, she has consumed 13 American presidents. All the way from Truman to Trump. Witnessed the assassination of Kennedy, the Watergate Incident, the death of Princess Diana, and a series of historical events.</p><p>Almost witnessed the development of the whole new China...</p><p><b>It's a walking antique.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the current Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth and the highest leader of Parliament.</p><p>The full name is \"Elizabeth II, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and other Territories and Dependencies by the grace of God, Head of the Commonwealth and Defender of the State Church (Anglican Church).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>She fell in love with her cousin when she was young.</b>At that time, our queen was only 21 years old, innocent, innocent, young and ignorant. So quietly fell in love.</p><p>But strictly speaking, the Queen's marriage is actually a kinship marriage. Because she and her husband, Prince Philip, are actually great-grandchildren of Queen Victoria, they have been called cousins until they got married.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In fact, when Philip was not a prince, our Her Lady Queen had already secretly moved his heart to him.</b>At that time, Prince Philip was still \"Captain Philip Mountbatten\".</p><p><b>Yes, he was the nephew of the famous General Mountbatten, Louis Mountbatten.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Speaking of which, I simply have to talk about the chaotic blood relationship of European royal families.</p><p>Because European countries are geographically very close and have a long history of intermarriage. Therefore, in the end, just caught any of them and it was the same family decades ago. It's hard not to be related.</p><p>Speaking of which, I have to mention the romantic Edward VIII through the ages. He is simply the most famous model in British history of loving beauty but not loving mountains and rivers.</p><p><b>However, if Edward VIII didn't love beauties back then, it might not be Elizabeth II sitting on the throne now.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding this strange love, Madonna once directed a film called \"W.E.\". The English title of the movie is the abbreviation of Mrs. Simpson and Prince Edward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson, the \"beauty\" who made him give up his country</p><p>It is said that Edward VIII and George VI are the eldest and second sons of George V respectively.</p><p>Edward succeeded to the throne in early 1936. Before he could be crowned, in December 1936, he signed an abdication declaration because he disobeyed the church and cabinet and insisted on marrying the divorced Mrs. Simpson. As Duke of Windsor, he later said on national radio:</p><p><b>I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.</b></p><p><b>After that, Edwards and his wife spent most of the rest of their lives in France, and didn't return to England until their death.</b></p><p>Of course, there are different opinions on the reasons for Edward VIII's abdication. Some people say that it is because he is biased towards the Nazis, so I won't go into details here.</p><p>It is said that after Edward VIII abdicated, his younger brother Albert, George VI, had naturally returned to China to inherit the throne.</p><p>George VI is the prototype of the stuttering king in The King's Speech. He published a national broadcast encouraging people to resist the Germans in World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stills of The King's Speech</p><p>George VI's real name is Albert, which is a German name. Later, during World War II, he changed his name to George in order to establish a clear relationship with Germany.</p><p>George VI was named Albert before because Queen Victoria's husband was called Albert. The husband of Queen Victoria's life is Prince Albert of Gotha, Coburg, Saxony, who was born in Germany.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>George VI</p><p>Queen Victoria once demanded that among the monarchs after her, someone must have Albert in his name to remember her love for her husband.</p><p>This unwritten rule was waived after Elizabeth II succeeded to the throne. Elizabeth II is the great granddaughter of Queen Victoria,<b>In other words, Elizabeth called Queen Victoria: Grandma Zu Tai.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, Queen Elizabeth II can be regarded as changing her ancestral precepts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II married in 1947 to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, and began a 74-year journey of showing love.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, in the two photos, their postures and expressions are almost the same, but the shooting time is half a century apart. Well, you also want to show love for half a century?</p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, have four children, three of whom are sons and one is a daughter, namely the eldest son Charles, the second son Andrew, the youngest son Edward and the daughter Anne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II is a devout Christian who abides by the law, so she refused to recognize Charles's mistress Camilla for many years.</p><p>However, her son doesn't value promises as much as she does. The gossip between her son Prince Charles and daughter-in-law Princess Diana is world-famous.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Princess Diana, the daughter-in-law who gives the royal family a headache</p><p>Prince Andrew, the Queen's favorite son, is by no means a fuel-efficient lamp. After being deeply involved in the sexual assault scandal, he was deprived of his military rank and royal patron status by the Queen.</p><p>However, it is said that the Queen's grandchildren are still low-key, except Prince Harry, the youngest son of Princess Diana, who is riddled with various scandals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prince Harry</p><p>The Queen's birthday is on April 21st, but on April 20th, the Queen visited the Royal Mail Office and received a series of stamps.</p><p>Which stage of the Queen's life does the above legend belong to, please correspond to it yourself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the 13 American presidents consumed by Elizabeth II, they are:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy John F Kennedy 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson Lyndon Johnson 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon Richard Nixon 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford Gerald Ford 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush George Herbert Walker Bush 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton Bill Clinton 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush George Walker Bush 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama Barack Obama 2009-2017</p><p>And the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump Donald Trump 2017-2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the tradition in British history, as a crowned monarch, the Queen will not abdicate before her death.</p><p>However, there were actually arrangements and rehearsals about her death a long time ago. This plan is code-named<b>\"London Bridge\"</b>。</p><p>The death of the king of England, unlike other countries, must first set a secret code.</p><p>The predecessor King George VI of England died with the code word \"Hyde Park Corner\". Correspondingly, Queen Elizabeth II's code word was \"London Bridge is down\". This code has existed since the queen ascended the throne, just as ancient emperors built mausoleums in advance.</p><p><b>According to this plan, once the Queen dies, the flags of Britain will be flown at half-mast, and the whole country will enter a 12-day mourning day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Immediately after the report was received by the British Foreign Office, which was responsible for conveying the news to the Commonwealth countries.</p><p>The media working with the royal family will also receive the news at the first time, but not by telephone or text message, but hanging above the studio<b>A blue light</b>。</p><p>This blue lamp was designed during the Cold War. Its original purpose was to report the Soviet Union's nuclear war as soon as possible, and race against time to let people enter the asylum procedure.</p><p>But in peacetime, once the blue light comes on, it doesn't mean anything else but the death of the queen. TV stations should quickly get ready, stop all entertainment programs and play mourning music.</p><p>The black mourning clothes prepared for the reading of the obituary are also ready in the office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Theoretically, the British throne can't have a vacuum period, so once the Queen dies, Prince Charles, the \"longest standby\" in history, will automatically become the new British king as the crown prince.</p><p>However, his official succession to the throne still requires a series of official procedures. He will take a public oath of loyalty in Parliament and the Church of England before St James's Palace officially declares him king.</p><p>After Prince Charles became king, the lyrics of Britain's national anthem \"God Save My Queen\" had to be changed accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>British people are already very familiar with the funeral process of the royal family, and even the Queen herself participated in the preview, pointing out the shortcomings.</p><p>However, she herself is not indifferent.</p><p>A few years ago, the queen, who likes keeping corgis very much, announced that she would no longer keep any pets. Foreign media reported that the Queen of England was slowly saying goodbye to her parents, childhood and memories.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, the most uncomfortable part of this is the Queen's family.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her legendary life has come to an end, and right and wrong can only be left to later generations to comment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200\">央视新闻客户端</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c32b0f1b76a429c3243349d4088def","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190604661","content_text":"》》》伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。声明称，目前女王情况尚好，并在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受医疗监护。随后，女王最亲密的家人都赶往巴尔莫勒尔城堡。自去年年底以来，由于身体健康等情况，英国女王已减少在公开场合露面。6日，96岁的女王伊丽莎白二世在巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受约翰逊的辞职并正式任命特拉斯为新任首相。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生于伦敦。1952年，伊丽莎白公主在25岁时成为女王，当时她的父亲乔治六世国王去世。从温斯顿·丘吉尔爵士到利兹·特拉斯，女王在位期间见证了15位英国首相。2015年，她成为历史上在位时间最长的英国君主，打破了她的曾曾祖母维多利亚女王创下的纪录。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。国王和王后今晚将留在巴尔莫勒尔，明天返回伦敦。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生，于1952年登基，2015年9月成为英国在位时间最长的君主。2月16日，女王会见即将离任的国防部长时略显憔悴，行动不便9月8日，白金汉宫表示，英国女王的医生对女王健康状况表示“担忧”，并建议女王“继续接受医学监护”。自去年10月以来，英国女王一直受到健康问题困扰。今年2月，伊丽莎白二世女王迎来了在位70周年庆典。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。此前，英国查尔斯王储及妻子卡米拉新冠病毒检测结果呈阳性。新冠康复后，女王没有回归众人的视野，站立和走路都很困难。今年3月14日的英联邦纪念日活动，女王意外缺席，全英惊讶不已。那个”不惜一切也要参加纪念日“的女王，身体着实不行了。女王一向以硬朗示人，能站着就绝不坐轮椅，但在她生命的最后一段时间，工作人员还是在她住所安置了电梯，外加一部安全轮椅。大家还记得，去年4月9日，和女王携手走完74年的菲利普亲王去世，全英国默哀一分钟，30名王室成员在温莎城堡内为他举办了50分钟的葬礼。女王一袭黑衣，坐在车内默默垂泪。之后，女王的健康也频频曝出问题。菲利普去世1个月后，王室全面复工，女王在出席国会开幕仪式时，整个人暴瘦，可以看出心情低沉，失去了昔日的笑容和神采。9月份，女王拒绝了紧急的膝盖手术，导致行走困难，10月12日，她在出席皇家英国退伍军人协会百年纪念仪式时，首次拄着拐杖出现，这一幕引发轩然大波，引发对女王健康状况的猜测。虽然家里养了两只宠物狗，女王还是面容憔悴，失去了精神支柱。10月20日，白金汉宫发表声明，表示女王在医生的建议下，取消了原定与周三、周四的北爱尔兰之访。女王未来几天将遵医嘱好好休息，虽然她不太情愿。然而当天晚上，女王直接住进了医院，这是她过去八年来，第一次住院，上一次还是患胃病。这份爆炸性新闻一出，连逐渐背离皇室的英国人都急了，“女王没事吧？”报道透露，女王的健康问题与新冠无关。一连串健康事故发生后，女王的医生提醒她，“该戒酒了。”女王喜欢饮酒，每晚都喝马天尼，数十年如一日。虽然身体每况愈下，那时候女王的精神状况还是很好，10月份，她还拒绝了某杂志要赋予她的“年度最佳老人”称号，因为她认为自己还很年轻。根据《英国报联社》的报道，虽然被困在家，她仍坚持办一些“轻松的公务”。11月14日，病痛再次袭来——女王因背部扭伤，缺席当天的国殇纪念日仪式。白金汉宫发言人说，她的健康状况进一步恶化，无法出席。而英国著名主持人皮尔斯摩根则表示，“女王的真实健康状况，比白金汉宫所说的更严重。”女王伊丽莎白二世是目前全世界在位时间最久、年纪最长的君主。可谓“超长待机”。自1952年继位以来，她一共耗走了13位美国总统。从杜鲁门一路经历到特朗普。见证了肯尼迪遇刺，水门事件，王妃戴安娜之死，等一系列历史大事。几乎见证了整个新中国的发展历程……简直就是个会走路的古董。伊丽莎白二世（Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II），即现任英国女王，英联邦元首、国会最高首领。全称是“承上帝洪恩的大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国及其他领土和属地女王，英联邦元首，国教（圣公会）的捍卫者伊丽莎白二世。她在年轻的时候爱上了自己的表哥。那个时候咱们的女王才21岁，天真纯良年少无知。就这样悄悄地陷入了爱情。但严格说起来，女王大人的婚姻实际上算是亲族联姻。因为她和她的丈夫菲利普亲王其实都是维多利亚女王的玄孙，所以他们在结婚以前一直是以表兄妹相称。而实际上，当年早在菲利普还不是亲王的时候，咱们的女王大人就早已经对他芳心暗动。那时候菲利普亲王还是 “菲利普·蒙巴顿上尉”。没错，他就是著名的蒙巴顿将军路易斯·蒙巴顿的外甥。说到这里，简直不得不说一下欧洲皇室混乱的血缘关系。因为在欧洲各国在地理上非常相近，又有长期通婚的历史。因此到了后来，简直随便抓一个出来就是几十年前同一家。想不沾亲带故都难。说到这里就不得不提一下千古浪漫的爱德华八世，他简直是英国史上最著名的爱美人不爱江山的典范。不过话说如果当年爱德华八世爱的不是美人的话，现在坐在王位上的或许就不会是伊丽莎白二世了。关于这段旷世奇恋，麦当娜曾导过一部电影叫“《倾国之恋》（W.E.）”。 电影的英文名就是辛普森夫人与爱德华王子名字首字母的缩写。爱德华八世和让他放弃了江山的“美人”辛普森夫人话说爱德华八世和乔治六世分别是乔治五世（George V）的长子与次子。爱德华于1936年初继位，还没来得及加冕，就在1936年12月因为违抗教会和内阁，执意要娶离异的辛普森夫人为妻而签署了退位声明，并以温莎公爵的身份在之后的全国广播中说到：“I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.”此后爱德华夫妻在法国度过了他们余生大部分时光，直至死后才回到英国。当然对于爱德华八世退位的原因众说纷纭，有人说因为他偏向纳粹，这里就不一一细说了。话说在爱德华八世退位以后，他的弟弟艾伯特，就是乔治六世，本来顺理成章地回国继承王位。乔治六世就是《国王的演讲》里面带有口吃的国王的原型。他曾发表全国广播鼓励民众在二战中抵抗德军。《国王的演讲》剧照乔治六世本名叫Albert，这是一个德国名字。后来在二战期间为了与德国划清关系改名为George。乔治六世之前之所以取名为 Albert ，是因为维多利亚女王的丈夫叫 Albert。维多利亚女王的一生挚爱的丈夫是萨克森•科堡•哥达的阿尔伯特王子，出生在德国。乔治六世而维多利亚女王曾经要求，在她之后的历代君主中，必须有人的名字中带有 Albert，一次来缅怀她对自己丈夫的爱。这个不成文的规定在伊丽莎白二世继位后被免除。伊丽莎白二世是维多利亚女王的重重孙女，也就是说，伊丽莎白喊维多利亚女王叫：祖太奶奶。所以伊丽莎白二世女王也算得上是改了祖训。伊丽莎白女王二世于1947年结婚，丈夫是爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王，从此开始了一段长达74年的秀恩爱旅程。女王和菲利普亲王，两张照片中的两人姿态神情几乎一致，而拍摄时间却差距整整半个世纪。恩，你也想秀恩爱半个世纪？女王和爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王育有四个孩子，其中三个是儿子，一个是女儿，分别是长子查尔斯、次子安德鲁、小儿子爱德华以及女儿安妮。伊丽莎白二世女王是一位恪守教律的虔诚的基督教徒，因此她对于查尔斯的情妇卡米拉多年以来都不肯承认。然而她的儿子却并不像她一样重视诺言，她的儿子查尔斯王子与儿媳妇戴安娜王妃之间的八卦简直举世闻名。让皇室颇为“头疼”的儿媳戴安娜王妃女王最宠爱的儿子安德鲁王子也绝非省油的灯，深陷性侵丑闻之后被女王剥夺了军衔和王室赞助人身份。不过话说女王的孙子们还算得上低调，除了戴安娜王妃的小儿子哈利王子各种绯闻缠身。哈利王子女王的生日是在4月21日，但是在4月20日的时候，女王走访了英国皇家邮政局，收到了一系列邮票。以上传奇属于女王大人一生的哪个阶段，就请大家自行对应吧。关于被伊丽莎白二世耗走的13位美国总统，他们是：33 Harry S. Truman哈里·S·杜鲁门 1945-195334 Dwight D Eisenhower德怀特·戴维·艾森豪威尔 1953-196135 John F Kennedy约翰·肯尼迪 1961-196336 Lyndon Johnson林登·约翰逊 1963-196937 Richard Nixon理查德·尼克松 1969-197438 Gerald Ford杰拉尔德·福特 1974-197739 Jimmy Carter吉米·卡特 1977-198140 Ronald Reagan罗纳德·里根 1981-198941 George H W Bush乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什 1989-199342 Bill Clinton比尔·克林顿 1993-200143 George W Bush乔治·沃克·布什 2001-200944 Barack Obama贝拉克·奥巴马 2009-2017以及美国第45任总统，Donald Trump唐纳德·特朗普 2017-2021 。根据英国历史上的传统，作为加冕君主，女王不会生前退位。但是，关于她的身后事其实很久以前就有过安排和预演了，这个方案代号为“伦敦桥”（London Bridge）。英国国王的驾崩，与别国不同，首先要定一个暗号。先代英王乔治六世，去世时的暗号就是“海德公园一角（Hyde Park Corner）”，相应的，伊丽莎白二世的暗号则是“London Bridge is down（伦敦大桥垮下来）”，这个暗号从女王登基后就已存在，正如古代帝王提前修建陵墓一般。根据这个计划，女王一旦去世，英国上下将会降半旗致哀，全国进入12天的哀悼日。紧接着收到报告的是英国外交部，他们负责向英联邦国家传达消息。与王室合作的媒体也会在第一时间收到消息，但不是通过电话或者简讯，而是悬于演播厅上方的一盏蓝灯。这顶蓝灯设计于冷战期间，原本的目的是第一时间报道苏联发动核战争，争分夺秒让民众进入避难程序。但是在和平年代，一旦蓝灯亮起，不意味着别的，意味着女王驾崩，电视台要迅速准备好，停止一切娱乐节目，播放哀悼音乐。为宣读讣闻的准备的黑色丧服也随时准备在办公室。理论上来说，英国的王位不能有真空期，所以一旦女王去世，史上“最长待机”的查尔斯王子作为王储将自动成为新一任英国国王。但是，他正式继位还需要一系列官方程序，他将在议会和英格兰教堂当众宣誓忠诚，圣詹姆斯宫才会正式宣布他为国王。查尔斯王储成为国王后，英国的国歌《上帝佑我女王》的歌词也得发生相应的改变。英国人对王室的葬礼流程已经非常熟悉，甚至英女王本人也参加预演，指出不足之处。但是，她本人也并不是毫不在乎。前几年，十分喜欢养柯基的女王宣布不再饲养任何宠物。外媒报道，英国女王正在和自己的父母、童年、回忆慢慢告别。当然，这其中最难受的还是女王的家人。她传奇的一生已经落幕，是是非非，也只能留给后世评说。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938468703,"gmtCreate":1662650762702,"gmtModify":1676537110544,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP ","listText":"RIP ","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938468703","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938579449,"gmtCreate":1662643241981,"gmtModify":1676537107973,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing ","listText":"Thanks for sharing ","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938579449","repostId":"2265788073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265788073","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1662597977,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265788073?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265788073","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>1 hour and 40 minutes of online press conference, last night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, updated its 3 product lines.</p><p>Apple Watch S8 with more thoughtful health functions, the new and hardcore Apple Watch Ultra.</p><p>After replacing the chip, the noise reduction ability has been greatly improved, and the AirPods Pro (second generation) is less likely to be lost than before.</p><p>There is also a fixed program that can't be beaten every autumn, a new generation of iPhone: the iPhone 14 series.</p><p>This time, the front of the iPhone has changed.</p><p>Apple Watch: After healthy play understands, it's time to start in new markets</p><p>Even if you are a heavy Apple Watch user, it is really difficult to tell the difference between Apple Watch S8 and previous products if you only look at the appearance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29ac92a6914f00a2552343d57387f9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But it is no exaggeration to say that Apple Watch S8 should be regarded as the most \"fatal\" hardware update in the Apple Watch product line in recent years.</p><p>Apple has added a new temperature sensor to the Apple Watch S8. The biggest function is to improve the accuracy of women's menstrual tracking function and predict the ovulation day more accurately by monitoring the body temperature during sleep, showing long-term body temperature changes, and reading the body temperature every 5 seconds. The watchOS system will also warn of menstrual disorder or delay by measuring the user's physical signs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004a85f7e94f4c5ab8c0a662405b7d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This function is equally useful for women who want to prepare for pregnancy and contraception.</p><p>In the past, for most women, menstrual tracking could only be manually marked through some apps, with almost no<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware will pay attention to the field of women's menstruation.</p><p>After all, for many manufacturers, if a temperature sensor is placed on a smart wearable device, the function with a high probability of matching will move towards fever monitoring, a service for COVID-19 prevention.</p><p>In addition to the new temperature sensor, Apple Watch S8 has also upgraded gyroscopes and acceleration sensors. With microphones, barometers, GPS and algorithms adjusted by Apple for more than 1 million hours of real driving and car accident data, Apple Watch can make emergency calls as soon as users have a car accident.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ba219c2dbb4b76b22beb7785b271f0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The new high G value accelerator, the maximum G value that can be perceived, is 256G.</p><p>What kind of concept is this?</p><p>F1 is the fastest track racing car in the world, and when an accident happens, drivers often suffer from impacts far exceeding daily car accidents. The worst F1 car accident in the last two years, the 2020 Bahrain Grand Prix, suffered by Grosjean, which was 67 G.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c472e036e1a44ab1905ad9f14125084a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In daily life, the maximum G value that ordinary people can bear is only about 3.5 G.</p><p>It is true that most people may not use the safety function of car accident alarm once even if they change the watch, but it is better than nothing to save lives in times of crisis.</p><p>If the Apple Watch S8 and the new entry-level SE are a regular iteration, the Apple Watch Ultra is Apple's first clarion call to enter a new field.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24642e1c3da64d71aa3a053c34b8625a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Watch Ultra has a larger and brighter screen, a stronger body, more speakers and microphones, and a longer battery life. It even adds a new physical button that can be customized by users and a newly designed strap to cope with different sports scenarios. The straps are all leading to a result: Apple has begun to move into the field of professional sports watches.</p><p>With titanium alloy body, 49mm dial, 2000nit screen brightness, dual GPS, working temperature range of minus 20 to above zero 55 degrees Celsius, and WR100's 100-meter waterproof certification, this is undoubtedly the strongest Apple Watch. Suitable for elite athletes with the highest needs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29220da6d7834205ab18ba7c9f1af8b5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, this doesn't mean that you are not an elite athlete, and the Apple Watch Ultra is not for you.</p><p>If you are familiar enough with traditional Swiss watches, you should know that Rolex Daytona is a racing watch, Water Ghost is a diving watch, and IWC is good at flight timing. In a sense, watches are an identity tag.</p><p>And Apple Watch Ultra, which stands for smart watches, can finally appear in the most harsh natural environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1b341459a24d189900bf3c0b257280\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One thing to say, from the birth of Apple Watch to the release of the 8th generation last night, the journey was not smooth sailing. In the first generation, Apple Watch took a detour of becoming a luxury product, but the wrong direction was quickly corrected. Apple began to focus on health monitoring and exercise monitoring, and gradually developed towards the ultimate goal in both directions.</p><p>One is that all ordinary people can monitor as many physical indicators as possible at any time as long as they wear Apple Watch without too many settings, and give early warnings of health problems.</p><p>One is to make the world's top athletes feel that Apple Watch, a consumer-grade smart wearable device that everyone can buy, can fully meet their training needs far beyond ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>From now on, Apple has gone quite steadily on both paths.</p><p>iPhone 14 series: Use the most ingenious way to solve the toughest problems.</p><p>Perhaps the sales of mini models in the first two generations did not meet market expectations. On the iPhone 14 generation model, Apple cut off the mini and took back the previous Plus model.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8878ea2d6c24d5ba58677f242fd2d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of appearance, the iPhone 14 does not change much compared to the iPhone 13, while the iPhone 14 Plus looks like an enlarged version of the iPhone 14. Even the processors, iPhone 14 and 14 Plus, use the same A15 Bionic chip as the previous generation.</p><p>But if you compare carefully, you will find that compared with the A15 chip used on the iPhone 13, the A15 chip of the iPhone 14/14 Plus has an extra graphics processor. The imaging hardware has also been updated. The rear main camera has a larger aperture and sensor. The new front camera performs better in low-light environments and also supports autofocus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26cbe5519af43498cf5bd2118ae3a7d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most direct change is that games that require more graphics processing performance will perform better, and the camera and video capabilities of the iPhone 14/14 Plus can also be directly improved.</p><p>The most obvious perception should be the brand-new video motion mode, which greatly reduces the jitter of shooting during motion through processor operation. Even in a sense, for iPhone 14 series users, there is a high probability that the category of mobile phone stabilizers will never be needed again.</p><p>Even if to be honest, the iPhone 14/14 Plus doesn't seem to be updated much, but it is obvious that the iPhone 14 Plus will become the biggest explosion in the mobile phone market from the end of this year to next year, which is definitely enough to make domestic mobile phone manufacturers dissatisfied, but in their hearts Very panic.</p><p>This year's iPhone, the biggest changes are in the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12fb1b8930f848eeaf26b8923ee83e66\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the front, the notch screen is gone.</p><p>Although the structured light sensor and front camera required by FaceID can't be hidden, Apple still came up with a brilliant idea to hide this \"visual impairment\". So there was the \"Dynamic Island\" design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da21f34f6944d9086755ad08c391628\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537482a00e0944cba0e9dddf512f2e6f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a88139234c4ff89f23c4d1e8286e26\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Simply put, \"Dynamic Island\" is a brand-new notification design style. Through the flexible change of the system UI, the unavoidable \"dark spots\" on the screen are hidden as much as possible. In fact, it looks better than most mobile phones that rack their brains to make an under-screen camera or reduce the screen holes as much as possible.</p><p>Because it is the system software design that moves, it does not affect the overall function.</p><p>Moreover, Apple has further upgraded the screen quality of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. The maximum brightness has been directly doubled to 2000 nit. Even if the outdoor sun is dazzling, the screen can be seen clearly. In the early years, it has been applied on Apple Watch. The mature variable refresh rate LTPO screen comes to the iPhone, giving iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max the best \"all-weather display\" experience currently on the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5876a5c19004462ea8be3e82610af896\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is called \"all-weather display\" because the implementation principle is to save power by reducing the screen refresh rate and brightness without affecting the display content, instead of the \"off-screen display\" logic of most Android models, which displays bits and pieces by calling only a few pixels. content to save power.</p><p>In terms of the shooting configuration that the Pro series highlights every year, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max has also made the biggest upgrade in recent years. The main camera is directly upgraded from 12 million pixels to 48 million pixels. For most photos, the four-in-one pixel sensor will combine every 4 pixels into one large pixel (the unit pixel size is equivalent to 2.44 microns), so that it can be used in low light conditions. Capture high-quality images and keep the photo size at 12 million pixels. When the user chooses the ProRAW format, all 48 million pixels will be output, showing the most picture details.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f44cbe11d7c146b0a545f7130896c91b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the iPhone 13 series, it looks more like the movie effect mode video of the waters testing function. The specifications have also been updated on the 14 Pro/Pro Max, supporting 4K 30 fps and 4K 24 fps video shooting. Closer to real movie parameters.</p><p>The chip installed in the 14 Pro/Pro Max body is also the latest 4nm process A16 chip. According to Apple, the speed brought by the 6-core central processor can be increased by up to 40% and can handle high load tasks with ease. The A16 Bionic chip uses an accelerated 5-core image processor, and the memory bandwidth is increased by up to 50%.</p><p>All in all, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max, inside and out, is brand new.</p><p>AirPods Pro 2: Without Rivals, Apple Decided to Outdo Itself</p><p>Compared with mobile phones, watches and tablets, Apple's AirPods product line has the lowest update frequency, and the reason is easy to understand: there are indeed no competitors.</p><p>But last night, Apple still released the second generation of AirPods Pro. The appearance has not changed much. It still has a white body and is still like a Pea Shooter's headphone body, but the performance has been greatly improved.</p><p>The new H2 chip makes the noise reduction ability of the second generation AirPods Pro twice that of the previous generation, and the better computing power also significantly improves the sound quality of the second generation AirPods Pro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91c0d1fdf444e129277c3868204d748\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although the appearance of the headphone body has not changed, the touch pad on the headphone leg now supports sliding volume adjustment. A speaker and U1 chip are added to the headphone shell, which is convenient for users to accurately locate and make sounds when they cannot find the headphone shell.</p><p>Even, Apple has put a rather \"retro\" lanyard hole on the second generation of AirPods Pro, for fear that your headphones are still there and the charging case will run away by itself.</p><p>Apple's lead in the AirPods product line is indeed too large. Most manufacturers can only copy the appearance, but cannot understand the inside.</p><p>The product barriers built by long-termism make it increasingly difficult for Apple to surpass</p><p>If you are a digital enthusiast, you should know very well that Apple's new hardware product launch conference in autumn should be watched together with WWDC in June.</p><p>Apple's software, with Apple's hardware, is highly integrated and correlated.</p><p>After last night's press conference, most online comments praised Apple's interactive style named \"Dynamic Island\" on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max.</p><p>But Apple's competitors, after watching the press conference, should know best that the interactive style of \"Dynamic Island\" is the best to copy, the most difficult to copy and the most difficult to surpass, which is Apple's long-termism.</p><p>The annual update of Apple Watch is behind Apple's years of investment and data accumulation in the health field.</p><p>Behind the annual iPhone update is Apple's investment in the chip field, body technology field, and display panel field for many years.</p><p>Behind the update of the two generations of AirPods Pro is Apple's investment in the field of computational audio, which has regarded headphones as the entire sound field system for many years.</p><p>Although on the Internet, it seems that some people always say that Apple is dead and has been surpassed by this or that manufacturer, the fact is that Apple still takes most of the profits in the smartphone market every year. In the entire software and hardware ecosystem, this The company is still the best technology company in the world, not even one.</p><p>There is a popular saying in programmer circles talk is cheap, show me the code.</p><p>In the field of consumer digital, the same goes.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-08 08:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>1 hour and 40 minutes of online press conference, last night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, updated its 3 product lines.</p><p>Apple Watch S8 with more thoughtful health functions, the new and hardcore Apple Watch Ultra.</p><p>After replacing the chip, the noise reduction ability has been greatly improved, and the AirPods Pro (second generation) is less likely to be lost than before.</p><p>There is also a fixed program that can't be beaten every autumn, a new generation of iPhone: the iPhone 14 series.</p><p>This time, the front of the iPhone has changed.</p><p>Apple Watch: After healthy play understands, it's time to start in new markets</p><p>Even if you are a heavy Apple Watch user, it is really difficult to tell the difference between Apple Watch S8 and previous products if you only look at the appearance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29ac92a6914f00a2552343d57387f9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But it is no exaggeration to say that Apple Watch S8 should be regarded as the most \"fatal\" hardware update in the Apple Watch product line in recent years.</p><p>Apple has added a new temperature sensor to the Apple Watch S8. The biggest function is to improve the accuracy of women's menstrual tracking function and predict the ovulation day more accurately by monitoring the body temperature during sleep, showing long-term body temperature changes, and reading the body temperature every 5 seconds. The watchOS system will also warn of menstrual disorder or delay by measuring the user's physical signs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004a85f7e94f4c5ab8c0a662405b7d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This function is equally useful for women who want to prepare for pregnancy and contraception.</p><p>In the past, for most women, menstrual tracking could only be manually marked through some apps, with almost no<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware will pay attention to the field of women's menstruation.</p><p>After all, for many manufacturers, if a temperature sensor is placed on a smart wearable device, the function with a high probability of matching will move towards fever monitoring, a service for COVID-19 prevention.</p><p>In addition to the new temperature sensor, Apple Watch S8 has also upgraded gyroscopes and acceleration sensors. With microphones, barometers, GPS and algorithms adjusted by Apple for more than 1 million hours of real driving and car accident data, Apple Watch can make emergency calls as soon as users have a car accident.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ba219c2dbb4b76b22beb7785b271f0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The new high G value accelerator, the maximum G value that can be perceived, is 256G.</p><p>What kind of concept is this?</p><p>F1 is the fastest track racing car in the world, and when an accident happens, drivers often suffer from impacts far exceeding daily car accidents. The worst F1 car accident in the last two years, the 2020 Bahrain Grand Prix, suffered by Grosjean, which was 67 G.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c472e036e1a44ab1905ad9f14125084a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In daily life, the maximum G value that ordinary people can bear is only about 3.5 G.</p><p>It is true that most people may not use the safety function of car accident alarm once even if they change the watch, but it is better than nothing to save lives in times of crisis.</p><p>If the Apple Watch S8 and the new entry-level SE are a regular iteration, the Apple Watch Ultra is Apple's first clarion call to enter a new field.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24642e1c3da64d71aa3a053c34b8625a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Watch Ultra has a larger and brighter screen, a stronger body, more speakers and microphones, and a longer battery life. It even adds a new physical button that can be customized by users and a newly designed strap to cope with different sports scenarios. The straps are all leading to a result: Apple has begun to move into the field of professional sports watches.</p><p>With titanium alloy body, 49mm dial, 2000nit screen brightness, dual GPS, working temperature range of minus 20 to above zero 55 degrees Celsius, and WR100's 100-meter waterproof certification, this is undoubtedly the strongest Apple Watch. Suitable for elite athletes with the highest needs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29220da6d7834205ab18ba7c9f1af8b5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, this doesn't mean that you are not an elite athlete, and the Apple Watch Ultra is not for you.</p><p>If you are familiar enough with traditional Swiss watches, you should know that Rolex Daytona is a racing watch, Water Ghost is a diving watch, and IWC is good at flight timing. In a sense, watches are an identity tag.</p><p>And Apple Watch Ultra, which stands for smart watches, can finally appear in the most harsh natural environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1b341459a24d189900bf3c0b257280\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One thing to say, from the birth of Apple Watch to the release of the 8th generation last night, the journey was not smooth sailing. In the first generation, Apple Watch took a detour of becoming a luxury product, but the wrong direction was quickly corrected. Apple began to focus on health monitoring and exercise monitoring, and gradually developed towards the ultimate goal in both directions.</p><p>One is that all ordinary people can monitor as many physical indicators as possible at any time as long as they wear Apple Watch without too many settings, and give early warnings of health problems.</p><p>One is to make the world's top athletes feel that Apple Watch, a consumer-grade smart wearable device that everyone can buy, can fully meet their training needs far beyond ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>From now on, Apple has gone quite steadily on both paths.</p><p>iPhone 14 series: Use the most ingenious way to solve the toughest problems.</p><p>Perhaps the sales of mini models in the first two generations did not meet market expectations. On the iPhone 14 generation model, Apple cut off the mini and took back the previous Plus model.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8878ea2d6c24d5ba58677f242fd2d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of appearance, the iPhone 14 does not change much compared to the iPhone 13, while the iPhone 14 Plus looks like an enlarged version of the iPhone 14. Even the processors, iPhone 14 and 14 Plus, use the same A15 Bionic chip as the previous generation.</p><p>But if you compare carefully, you will find that compared with the A15 chip used on the iPhone 13, the A15 chip of the iPhone 14/14 Plus has an extra graphics processor. The imaging hardware has also been updated. The rear main camera has a larger aperture and sensor. The new front camera performs better in low-light environments and also supports autofocus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26cbe5519af43498cf5bd2118ae3a7d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most direct change is that games that require more graphics processing performance will perform better, and the camera and video capabilities of the iPhone 14/14 Plus can also be directly improved.</p><p>The most obvious perception should be the brand-new video motion mode, which greatly reduces the jitter of shooting during motion through processor operation. Even in a sense, for iPhone 14 series users, there is a high probability that the category of mobile phone stabilizers will never be needed again.</p><p>Even if to be honest, the iPhone 14/14 Plus doesn't seem to be updated much, but it is obvious that the iPhone 14 Plus will become the biggest explosion in the mobile phone market from the end of this year to next year, which is definitely enough to make domestic mobile phone manufacturers dissatisfied, but in their hearts Very panic.</p><p>This year's iPhone, the biggest changes are in the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12fb1b8930f848eeaf26b8923ee83e66\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the front, the notch screen is gone.</p><p>Although the structured light sensor and front camera required by FaceID can't be hidden, Apple still came up with a brilliant idea to hide this \"visual impairment\". So there was the \"Dynamic Island\" design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da21f34f6944d9086755ad08c391628\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537482a00e0944cba0e9dddf512f2e6f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a88139234c4ff89f23c4d1e8286e26\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Simply put, \"Dynamic Island\" is a brand-new notification design style. Through the flexible change of the system UI, the unavoidable \"dark spots\" on the screen are hidden as much as possible. In fact, it looks better than most mobile phones that rack their brains to make an under-screen camera or reduce the screen holes as much as possible.</p><p>Because it is the system software design that moves, it does not affect the overall function.</p><p>Moreover, Apple has further upgraded the screen quality of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. The maximum brightness has been directly doubled to 2000 nit. Even if the outdoor sun is dazzling, the screen can be seen clearly. In the early years, it has been applied on Apple Watch. The mature variable refresh rate LTPO screen comes to the iPhone, giving iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max the best \"all-weather display\" experience currently on the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5876a5c19004462ea8be3e82610af896\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is called \"all-weather display\" because the implementation principle is to save power by reducing the screen refresh rate and brightness without affecting the display content, instead of the \"off-screen display\" logic of most Android models, which displays bits and pieces by calling only a few pixels. content to save power.</p><p>In terms of the shooting configuration that the Pro series highlights every year, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max has also made the biggest upgrade in recent years. The main camera is directly upgraded from 12 million pixels to 48 million pixels. For most photos, the four-in-one pixel sensor will combine every 4 pixels into one large pixel (the unit pixel size is equivalent to 2.44 microns), so that it can be used in low light conditions. Capture high-quality images and keep the photo size at 12 million pixels. When the user chooses the ProRAW format, all 48 million pixels will be output, showing the most picture details.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f44cbe11d7c146b0a545f7130896c91b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the iPhone 13 series, it looks more like the movie effect mode video of the waters testing function. The specifications have also been updated on the 14 Pro/Pro Max, supporting 4K 30 fps and 4K 24 fps video shooting. Closer to real movie parameters.</p><p>The chip installed in the 14 Pro/Pro Max body is also the latest 4nm process A16 chip. According to Apple, the speed brought by the 6-core central processor can be increased by up to 40% and can handle high load tasks with ease. The A16 Bionic chip uses an accelerated 5-core image processor, and the memory bandwidth is increased by up to 50%.</p><p>All in all, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max, inside and out, is brand new.</p><p>AirPods Pro 2: Without Rivals, Apple Decided to Outdo Itself</p><p>Compared with mobile phones, watches and tablets, Apple's AirPods product line has the lowest update frequency, and the reason is easy to understand: there are indeed no competitors.</p><p>But last night, Apple still released the second generation of AirPods Pro. The appearance has not changed much. It still has a white body and is still like a Pea Shooter's headphone body, but the performance has been greatly improved.</p><p>The new H2 chip makes the noise reduction ability of the second generation AirPods Pro twice that of the previous generation, and the better computing power also significantly improves the sound quality of the second generation AirPods Pro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91c0d1fdf444e129277c3868204d748\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although the appearance of the headphone body has not changed, the touch pad on the headphone leg now supports sliding volume adjustment. A speaker and U1 chip are added to the headphone shell, which is convenient for users to accurately locate and make sounds when they cannot find the headphone shell.</p><p>Even, Apple has put a rather \"retro\" lanyard hole on the second generation of AirPods Pro, for fear that your headphones are still there and the charging case will run away by itself.</p><p>Apple's lead in the AirPods product line is indeed too large. Most manufacturers can only copy the appearance, but cannot understand the inside.</p><p>The product barriers built by long-termism make it increasingly difficult for Apple to surpass</p><p>If you are a digital enthusiast, you should know very well that Apple's new hardware product launch conference in autumn should be watched together with WWDC in June.</p><p>Apple's software, with Apple's hardware, is highly integrated and correlated.</p><p>After last night's press conference, most online comments praised Apple's interactive style named \"Dynamic Island\" on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max.</p><p>But Apple's competitors, after watching the press conference, should know best that the interactive style of \"Dynamic Island\" is the best to copy, the most difficult to copy and the most difficult to surpass, which is Apple's long-termism.</p><p>The annual update of Apple Watch is behind Apple's years of investment and data accumulation in the health field.</p><p>Behind the annual iPhone update is Apple's investment in the chip field, body technology field, and display panel field for many years.</p><p>Behind the update of the two generations of AirPods Pro is Apple's investment in the field of computational audio, which has regarded headphones as the entire sound field system for many years.</p><p>Although on the Internet, it seems that some people always say that Apple is dead and has been surpassed by this or that manufacturer, the fact is that Apple still takes most of the profits in the smartphone market every year. In the entire software and hardware ecosystem, this The company is still the best technology company in the world, not even one.</p><p>There is a popular saying in programmer circles talk is cheap, show me the code.</p><p>In the field of consumer digital, the same goes.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9d895eb03544e594a68e0de37afd8d","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265788073","content_text":"1 小时 40 分钟的线上发布会，昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。健康功能更贴心的 Apple Watch S8，全新且硬核的 Apple Watch Ultra。更换芯片后大幅提升降噪能力，比之前更不容易丢的 AirPods Pro（第二代）。还有就是每年秋季铁打不动的固定节目，全新一代 iPhone：iPhone 14 系列。这一次，iPhone 的正面变了。Apple Watch：健康玩儿明白后，该对新市场下手了即便你是个重度 Apple Watch 用户，如果只看外观，确实也很难分辨出 Apple Watch S8 和之前产品的区别。但毫不夸张，Apple Watch S8，应该算是近几年 Apple Watch 这条产品线中，硬件更新幅度最“要命”的一次。苹果在 Apple Watch S8 上，新增了温度传感器。最大的作用，是通过跟测睡眠时候的体温，呈现长期的体温变化情况，每 5 秒读取一次体温，来提升女性经期跟踪功能的准确性，更精准预测排卵日。watchOS 系统还会通过对于用户体征的测量，来预警经期的紊乱或推迟。这个功能，对于想备孕和想避孕的女性，同样有用。而在过去，对于大部分女性，经期跟踪，往往只能通过一些 app 来进行手动标注，几乎没有任何智能硬件会关注到女性经期这一领域。毕竟对于很多厂商，如果在智能穿戴设备上放一个温度传感器，大概率匹配的功能，会走向发烧监测这一服务新冠预防的环节。除了新增的温度传感器，Apple Watch S8 还升级了陀螺仪和加速度感应器，配合麦克风，气压计，GPS 和苹果号称超过 100 万小时真实驾驶和车祸数据调校出来的算法，Apple Watch 可以在用户发生车祸的第一时间进行紧急呼叫。全新的高 G 值加速器，可以感知的最大 G 值，是 256G。这是个什么概念？F1 是世界上最快的场地赛车，发生事故时车手往往会承受远超日常车祸的撞击力度。最近两年最严重的 F1 车祸，2020 年巴林站大奖赛，格罗斯让所承受的撞击，是 67 个 G。而在日常生活中，普通人能承受的最大 G 值，大概只有 3.5G。车祸报警的安全功能确实对大部分人来说，可能知道换了表，都不会用一次，但在危机时刻有可能救命的功能，有总比没有好。如果说 Apple Watch S8 和全新的入门款 SE 是一次常规迭代，Apple Watch Ultra 则是苹果对一个新领域发起进军的第一声号角。Apple Watch Ultra 屏幕更大，更亮，机身也更坚固，扬声器和麦克风都更多，电池续航也更长，甚至还新增了一个可供用户自定义的实体按键以及全新设计的应对不同运动场景的表带，都在导向一个结果：苹果开始对专业运动手表领域下手了。钛合金表身，49mm 表盘，2000nit屏幕亮度，双 GPS，零下 20 到零上 55 摄氏度的工作温度区间，WR100 的 100 米防水认证，毫无疑问，这是最强的 Apple Watch。适合需求最高的精英运动员。当然，这也并不意味着你不是精英运动员，Apple Watch Ultra 就不适合你。如果你对瑞士传统手表足够熟悉，就应该了解，劳力士戴通拿是赛车表，水鬼是潜水表，IWC 万国擅长做飞行计时，某种意义上，手表是一种身份标签。而 Apple Watch Ultra，代表智能手表，终于也可以出现在最严苛的自然环境中。有一说一，Apple Watch 从诞生到昨晚发布第 8 代，一路走来并不是一帆风顺，在第一代时，Apple Watch 走了想成为奢侈品的弯路，但错误的指向很快被矫正，苹果开始在健康监控和运动监控两个领域重点发力，并且逐渐在往两个方向的最终目标不断发展。一个是能让所有普通人只要戴上 Apple Watch，无需过多设置，就能随时监控自己尽可能多身体指标，对健康问题提前做出预警。一个是让世界上最顶级的运动员，也能觉得，Apple Watch 这样一款所有人都能买到的消费级智能穿戴设备，完全能满足自己远超常人想象的训练需求。从现在来看，这两条路，苹果都走得相当稳健。iPhone 14 系列：用最巧妙的方式，解决最棘手的问题。也许是 mini 机型在前两代的销售情况并没有达到市场预期。在 iPhone 14 这一代机型上，苹果砍掉了 mini，把之前 Plus 的型号拿了回来。在外观上，iPhone 14 对比 iPhone 13，确实没有太多改变，而 iPhone 14 Plus，则看上去像是放大版的 iPhone 14。甚至是处理器，iPhone 14 和 14 Plus，也用了和上代一样的 A15 仿生芯片。但如果仔细对比，就会发现，对比 iPhone 13 上使用的 A15 芯片，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的 A15 芯片多了一颗图形处理器。影像硬件也进行了更新，后置的主摄光圈和传感器都更大，全新的前置摄像头低光环境表现更好，也支持自动对焦。最直接的改变，就是需要更多图形处理性能的游戏会表现更好，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的拍照和视频能力也能得到直接提升。感知最明显的，应该是全新的视频运动模式，通过处理器运算，大幅降低运动时拍摄的抖动。甚至某种意义上，对于 iPhone 14 系列用户，手机稳定器这个品类，大概率是再也不需要了。即便实话实说，iPhone 14/14 Plus 看上去更新幅度不大，但很明显，iPhone 14 Plus 会成为今年年底到明年手机市场的最大爆款，绝对足以让国内各家手机厂商嘴上不服，但心里很慌。今年的 iPhone，最大的变化在 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 两款机型身上。正面，刘海屏没了。虽然因为 FaceID 所需要的结构光传感器和前置摄像头无法隐藏，但苹果还是想出了一个绝妙的主意来把这块儿“视觉障碍”给藏起来。于是就有了“灵动岛”设计。简单来说，“灵动岛”是一套全新的通知设计风格，通过系统 UI 的灵活改变，尽可能隐藏住屏幕上不可回避的“黑斑”，实际看上去，也比大部分绞尽脑汁想要做屏下摄像头或者是尽可能缩小屏幕打孔的手机高明很多。因为动的是系统软件设计，并没有影响整体功能。而且，苹果还对 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 的屏幕素质做了进一步升级，最高亮度直接翻倍，提升到 2000 nit，即便室外阳光耀眼也能看清屏幕，早年间在 Apple Watch 上已经应用成熟的可变刷新率 LTPO 屏幕，来到 iPhone 上，就给了 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 目前市面上最好的“全天候显示”体验。叫“全天候显示”，是因为实现原理是通过降低屏幕刷新率和亮度来省电，不影响显示内容，而非大部分 Android 机型的“熄屏显示”逻辑，通过只调用少数像素点显示零碎内容来省电。在每年 Pro 系列都会突出的拍摄配置上，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 也做了近些年的最大升级。主摄从 1200 万像素直接升级到 4800 万像素，对于大多数照片，四合一像素传感器会将每 4 个像素合并为一个大像素（单位像素尺寸相当于 2.44 微米），从而可在低光条件下拍摄到优质的影像，将照片大小保持在 1200 万像素。而当用户选择 ProRAW 格式，4800 万像素会尽数输出，呈现出最多的画面细节。在 iPhone 13 系列上看上去更像试水功能的电影效果模式视频，也在 14 Pro/Pro Max 上更新了规格，支持 4K 30 fps 和 4K 24 fps 视频拍摄。更贴近真实的电影参数。在 14 Pro/Pro Max 机身中搭载的芯片，也是最新的 4nm 制程 A16 芯片，按照苹果的说法，6 核中央处理器带来的速度提升至高可达 40%，并可举重若轻地处理高负载任务。A16 仿生芯片采用经加速的 5 核图像处理器，内存带宽提升多达 50%。总而言之，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max，从里到外，都是全新的。AirPods Pro 2：没有竞争对手，苹果就决定超越自己相比于手机，手表和平板，苹果 AirPods 产品线的更新频率最低，原因也很好理解：确实没有竞争对手。但昨晚，苹果还是发布了 AirPods Pro 的第二代，外观没太多改变，还是白色的机身，还是像豌豆射手的耳机本体，但性能做了大幅提升。全新的 H2 芯片，让第二代的 AirPods Pro 降噪能力是上一代的两倍，更好的计算能力也让 AirPods Pro 第二代的音质有了明显提升。虽然耳机本体的外观没变，但耳机腿上的触控板，现在支持滑动调节音量，耳机壳上还加了扬声器和 U1 芯片，方便用户找不到耳机壳时，精准定位，并发出声音。甚至，苹果还在 AirPods Pro 二代上放上了相当“复古”的挂绳孔，生怕你耳机还在，充电壳自己跑了。苹果在 AirPods 这条产品线上的领先幅度确实太大，大多数厂商，也只能抄个外观，没法抄明白内在。长期主义构建起的产品壁垒，让苹果越来越难被超越如果你是个数码爱好者，你应该非常清楚，每年苹果秋季的硬件新品发布会，应该搭配着 6 月份 WWDC 一起看。苹果的软件，与苹果的硬件，融合度极高，关联性极强。昨晚的发布会后，大部分网络评论都在赞美苹果在 iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 上命名为“灵动岛”的交互风格。但苹果的竞争对手们，看完发布会，应该最清楚，“灵动岛”的交互风格是最好抄的，最难抄也是最难超的，是苹果的长期主义。每年 Apple Watch 的更新，背后是苹果多年在健康领域的投入与数据积累。每年 iPhone 的更新，背后是苹果多年在芯片领域，机身工艺领域，显示面板领域的投入。两代 AirPods Pro 的更新，背后是苹果多年把耳机当作整个声场系统，在计算音频领域的投入。尽管在网络上，似乎总有人说苹果不行了，被这个那个厂商超越了，但事实情况是，每年的智能手机市场，苹果依然拿走了大部分利润，在整个软硬件生态上，这家公司依然是世界上最好的科技公司，甚至没有之一。程序员圈子里流行一句话：talk is cheap，show me the code。在消费数码领域，同理。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992387352,"gmtCreate":1661264218878,"gmtModify":1676536485108,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing ","listText":"Thanks for sharing ","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992387352","repostId":"2261050143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990799233,"gmtCreate":1660408478725,"gmtModify":1676533466098,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points ","listText":"Good points ","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990799233","repostId":"1119283353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119283353","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660389631,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119283353?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 19:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With rapid growth and increasing market size, AMD is still trapped in the \"low valuation trap\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119283353","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>AMD, driven by strong growth in the cloud segment, saw the company's revenue jump 70% year over year, management showed confidence and repurchased $920 million of stock in the second quarter, which is undervalued relative to historical multiples and intrinsic value.</p><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is a leading supplier of high-performance semiconductor chips. The company has seen tremendous growth over the past few years and continues to shine in the quarter ended June 2022. Still, between November 2021 and July 2022, the share price has fallen by about 51%.</p><p>This was primarily driven by an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates. However, over the past month, shares have actually skyrocketed by about 33% as the market sees an opportunity to seize \"growth at a reasonable price\". AMD remains undervalued in nature and relative to historical multiples.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69df64ee775e093fc1e07fa0ad9503e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD data by YCharts</p><p><b>01. Business model</b></p><p>AMD has a addressable market of $135 billion in its four main business areas:</p><p>Data center -$50B TAM</p><p>Personal computer -$40B TAM</p><p>Embedded -$29B TAM</p><p>Game -$16B TAM</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d77f65faaca78272684bd32148412494\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD TAM (2022 Investor Report)</p><p>This market opportunity is expected to expand due to the continuous development of technologies such as hyperscale cloud, supercomputing, 5G, autonomous vehicles, analog (Metaverse) and even the Internet of Things (IoT).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e610728a204579d2dda19e6d73355a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Technology Trends (2022 Investor Report)</p><p>AMD is a strong category leader in three of its four major segments, including data center, PC, and embedded. NVIDIA (NVDA) competes with AMD as a leader in gaming GPUs and a robust data center offering. The two companies had previously planned to merge, which would create an unstoppable chip company, but was halted by \"regulatory challenges.\"</p><p>AMD's data center server processors are some of the best in their class. Its AMD EPYC is the \"highest performing server processor in the world\". This provides higher performance than competitors in high-performance computing (HPC), cloud, and enterprise workloads. Its chips are already deployed in the infrastructure of three major cloud providers: AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Additionally, AMD's chips can be found in China's cloud-leading facilities such as Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud. In the most recent quarter, Microsoft Azure deployed the AMD Instinct MI200 accelerator for large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) training, another huge recognition of the company's leading technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95429335e67686ebb08eef1dbdf859f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Data Center Products (2022 Investor Report)</p><p>AMD's products are also widely deployed in Cisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), ASUS, Lenovo and other enterprises. The AMD-powered Frontier supercomputer recently broke the barrier of exaflop and gained industry recognition.</p><p>Management has made it a strategic priority to become a \"new data center leader\", and they aim to achieve this by leveraging best-in-class technology, continuous innovation, and executing a consistent roadmap.</p><p>In gaming, AMD'S Zen 2 chip is used on the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. For client PCs, AMD's Ryzen processors are ahead of Intel in terms of value and power consumption, and offer very close performance in other areas.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f59c0ee8628964329147b7e82aab715\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Products (2022 Investor Presentation)</p><p>The main reason AMD offers more efficient consumption compared to Intel is its smaller 7nm (nanometer) chip. Intel has fallen behind after struggling to execute its latest 7nm chip design. Meanwhile, AMD has released smaller 5nm chips, which will be a \"world first\" of this size and is expected to be available in the fall of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0dd3bfe00b986a1c59b75c60bc4787\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Zen 5nm (2022 Investor Report)</p><p><b>02. Growing finance</b></p><p>AMD announced strong earnings for the second quarter of 2022. Total revenue was $6.6 billion, up 70% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3635043ac9e3b2418af4b35e3de86472\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Revenue (Earnings AMD)</p><p>This revenue growth was driven by strong data center revenue, which grew rapidly by 83% year-over-year to $1.486 billion, with an operating margin of 32%. This is the result of strong sales of its EPYC (EPYC) data center processors. Customer revenue jumped 25% to $2.152 billion on strong mobile processor sales. Gaming revenue also rose 32% to $1.7 billion. This was driven by growth in semi-custom product sales, but graphics revenue did decline slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3065a94d01c7ec40371c6753180c19c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Segment Growth (AMD Q2 22 earnings)</p><p>Embedded computing revenue accelerated to $1.257 billion. This represents an eye-popping 2,228% increase, but the increase was largely driven by revenue from recently completed acquisitions. AMD acquired Xilinx in an all-stock deal that was announced in 2020 but ultimately closed in early 2022. Xilinx is the inventor of FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) commonly used in aerospace and military applications.</p><p>AMD's gross margin was 46%, down 2% year-over-year. Operating income was $526 million, or 8% of revenue. The year-over-year decrease of 37% was primarily due to the amortization of intangible assets related to the Xilinx acquisition. Earnings per share were also impacted by the same issue, falling $0.27 compared to $0.58 in the year-ago quarter. The good news is that the acquisition-related revenue decline appears to be more of a balance sheet adjustment than a \"real dollar\" decline. So, I don't think that's a major issue moving forward. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share actually increased to $1.05 from $0.63 a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574a5b99545305b23fa31ade275e93a0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Earnings per share (AMD Q2 Financials)</p><p>AMD has a solid balance sheet with $5.99 billion in cash and short-term investments. In addition to total debt of ~ $2.8 billion, this is manageable due to strong free cash flow of $906 million (up 43% year-over-year).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5bec04d01f6d4e4cc104a3d8b2b5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Balance Sheet (Q2 Earnings)</p><p><b>03. Tepid guidance</b></p><p>For Q3 2022, AMD management forecasts revenue of $6.7 billion, a growth rate of just under 55% compared to the 70% mentioned earlier. Full-year revenue is expected to be $26.3 billion (+/-$300 million), up ~ 60% year-over-year. These are remarkable numbers, however, AMD's CEO Su predicts that growth in the PC space will slow down.</p><p>\"We took a more conservative view of the PC business, so until a quarter ago, we would have thought that the PC business would decline, let's call it the high single digits,\"<b>Advanced valuation models</b></p><p>To value AMD, I inserted the latest financials into my advanced valuation model, which uses the discounted cash flow valuation method. I conservatively forecast revenue growth of 48% next year as the company's revenue will grow from a larger base. Furthermore, I forecast 28% revenue growth over the next 2 to 5 years. This valuation is driven by continued expected strength in the data center space, as well as strong digital transformation tailwinds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06222cdf6ea573544d410ebeb52a0313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Stock Valuation 1 (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>I forecast the company's operating margin to grow steadily to ~ 18% over the next 7 years, mainly driven by strong growth in the higher-margin cloud segment. These profit figures include the company's research and development expenses, which I have capitalized to improve accuracy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/423623e3d13dd507de69faa824047c1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Stock Valuation 2 (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these numbers, I get a fair value of $114 per share. The stock is currently trading at $98 per share, making it about 15% undervalued.</p><p>As an additional data point, AMD's P/E (P/E) (FWD) = 22.86 is 54% below its 5-year average. AMD has a price-to-sales ratio of = 6.6, which is cheaper than Nvidia, with PS = 16. However, it is known to be more expensive than Intel (INTC), which has a price-to-sales ratio = 2 because of slowing growth and execution issues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83597cf33c7d65ea1cd97f526dfbe428\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD PS Ratio data by YCharts</p><p><b>04. Risks and conclusion</b></p><p>A high inflationary environment is squeezing input costs for businesses. META (META) and many other tech companies have already announced plans to slow hiring. Additionally, \"cloud giants\" such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) have announced that they are extending the useful life of their servers and network assets from four to six years. Microsoft's chief financial officer recently said:</p><p>\"Investment in our software has improved the efficiency of our operating servers and networking equipment and advancements in technology, resulting in longevity beyond their historical accounting useful life.\" Such actions will directly impact companies such as AMD, as delayed IT spending will impact their growth rates and many others in the industry.</p><p>When it comes to technology, AMD is an amazing company and a true innovator. The fact that NVIDIA tried (but was blocked) to acquire the company is a testament to the quality of its technology and assets. It has a track record of rapid growth and excellent execution capabilities that other companies such as Intel can't. The stock remains undervalued, so this looks like a great opportunity in the long run. But, I do expect some short-term volatility next year due to IT spending cuts and softer gaming demand.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With rapid growth and increasing market size, AMD is still trapped in the \"low valuation trap\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith rapid growth and increasing market size, AMD is still trapped in the \"low valuation trap\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-13 19:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>AMD, driven by strong growth in the cloud segment, saw the company's revenue jump 70% year over year, management showed confidence and repurchased $920 million of stock in the second quarter, which is undervalued relative to historical multiples and intrinsic value.</p><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is a leading supplier of high-performance semiconductor chips. The company has seen tremendous growth over the past few years and continues to shine in the quarter ended June 2022. Still, between November 2021 and July 2022, the share price has fallen by about 51%.</p><p>This was primarily driven by an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates. However, over the past month, shares have actually skyrocketed by about 33% as the market sees an opportunity to seize \"growth at a reasonable price\". AMD remains undervalued in nature and relative to historical multiples.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69df64ee775e093fc1e07fa0ad9503e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD data by YCharts</p><p><b>01. Business model</b></p><p>AMD has a addressable market of $135 billion in its four main business areas:</p><p>Data center -$50B TAM</p><p>Personal computer -$40B TAM</p><p>Embedded -$29B TAM</p><p>Game -$16B TAM</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d77f65faaca78272684bd32148412494\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD TAM (2022 Investor Report)</p><p>This market opportunity is expected to expand due to the continuous development of technologies such as hyperscale cloud, supercomputing, 5G, autonomous vehicles, analog (Metaverse) and even the Internet of Things (IoT).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e610728a204579d2dda19e6d73355a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Technology Trends (2022 Investor Report)</p><p>AMD is a strong category leader in three of its four major segments, including data center, PC, and embedded. NVIDIA (NVDA) competes with AMD as a leader in gaming GPUs and a robust data center offering. The two companies had previously planned to merge, which would create an unstoppable chip company, but was halted by \"regulatory challenges.\"</p><p>AMD's data center server processors are some of the best in their class. Its AMD EPYC is the \"highest performing server processor in the world\". This provides higher performance than competitors in high-performance computing (HPC), cloud, and enterprise workloads. Its chips are already deployed in the infrastructure of three major cloud providers: AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Additionally, AMD's chips can be found in China's cloud-leading facilities such as Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud. In the most recent quarter, Microsoft Azure deployed the AMD Instinct MI200 accelerator for large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) training, another huge recognition of the company's leading technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95429335e67686ebb08eef1dbdf859f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Data Center Products (2022 Investor Report)</p><p>AMD's products are also widely deployed in Cisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), ASUS, Lenovo and other enterprises. The AMD-powered Frontier supercomputer recently broke the barrier of exaflop and gained industry recognition.</p><p>Management has made it a strategic priority to become a \"new data center leader\", and they aim to achieve this by leveraging best-in-class technology, continuous innovation, and executing a consistent roadmap.</p><p>In gaming, AMD'S Zen 2 chip is used on the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. For client PCs, AMD's Ryzen processors are ahead of Intel in terms of value and power consumption, and offer very close performance in other areas.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f59c0ee8628964329147b7e82aab715\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Products (2022 Investor Presentation)</p><p>The main reason AMD offers more efficient consumption compared to Intel is its smaller 7nm (nanometer) chip. Intel has fallen behind after struggling to execute its latest 7nm chip design. Meanwhile, AMD has released smaller 5nm chips, which will be a \"world first\" of this size and is expected to be available in the fall of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0dd3bfe00b986a1c59b75c60bc4787\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Zen 5nm (2022 Investor Report)</p><p><b>02. Growing finance</b></p><p>AMD announced strong earnings for the second quarter of 2022. Total revenue was $6.6 billion, up 70% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3635043ac9e3b2418af4b35e3de86472\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Revenue (Earnings AMD)</p><p>This revenue growth was driven by strong data center revenue, which grew rapidly by 83% year-over-year to $1.486 billion, with an operating margin of 32%. This is the result of strong sales of its EPYC (EPYC) data center processors. Customer revenue jumped 25% to $2.152 billion on strong mobile processor sales. Gaming revenue also rose 32% to $1.7 billion. This was driven by growth in semi-custom product sales, but graphics revenue did decline slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3065a94d01c7ec40371c6753180c19c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Segment Growth (AMD Q2 22 earnings)</p><p>Embedded computing revenue accelerated to $1.257 billion. This represents an eye-popping 2,228% increase, but the increase was largely driven by revenue from recently completed acquisitions. AMD acquired Xilinx in an all-stock deal that was announced in 2020 but ultimately closed in early 2022. Xilinx is the inventor of FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) commonly used in aerospace and military applications.</p><p>AMD's gross margin was 46%, down 2% year-over-year. Operating income was $526 million, or 8% of revenue. The year-over-year decrease of 37% was primarily due to the amortization of intangible assets related to the Xilinx acquisition. Earnings per share were also impacted by the same issue, falling $0.27 compared to $0.58 in the year-ago quarter. The good news is that the acquisition-related revenue decline appears to be more of a balance sheet adjustment than a \"real dollar\" decline. So, I don't think that's a major issue moving forward. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share actually increased to $1.05 from $0.63 a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574a5b99545305b23fa31ade275e93a0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Earnings per share (AMD Q2 Financials)</p><p>AMD has a solid balance sheet with $5.99 billion in cash and short-term investments. In addition to total debt of ~ $2.8 billion, this is manageable due to strong free cash flow of $906 million (up 43% year-over-year).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5bec04d01f6d4e4cc104a3d8b2b5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Balance Sheet (Q2 Earnings)</p><p><b>03. Tepid guidance</b></p><p>For Q3 2022, AMD management forecasts revenue of $6.7 billion, a growth rate of just under 55% compared to the 70% mentioned earlier. Full-year revenue is expected to be $26.3 billion (+/-$300 million), up ~ 60% year-over-year. These are remarkable numbers, however, AMD's CEO Su predicts that growth in the PC space will slow down.</p><p>\"We took a more conservative view of the PC business, so until a quarter ago, we would have thought that the PC business would decline, let's call it the high single digits,\"<b>Advanced valuation models</b></p><p>To value AMD, I inserted the latest financials into my advanced valuation model, which uses the discounted cash flow valuation method. I conservatively forecast revenue growth of 48% next year as the company's revenue will grow from a larger base. Furthermore, I forecast 28% revenue growth over the next 2 to 5 years. This valuation is driven by continued expected strength in the data center space, as well as strong digital transformation tailwinds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06222cdf6ea573544d410ebeb52a0313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Stock Valuation 1 (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>I forecast the company's operating margin to grow steadily to ~ 18% over the next 7 years, mainly driven by strong growth in the higher-margin cloud segment. These profit figures include the company's research and development expenses, which I have capitalized to improve accuracy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/423623e3d13dd507de69faa824047c1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Stock Valuation 2 (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these numbers, I get a fair value of $114 per share. The stock is currently trading at $98 per share, making it about 15% undervalued.</p><p>As an additional data point, AMD's P/E (P/E) (FWD) = 22.86 is 54% below its 5-year average. AMD has a price-to-sales ratio of = 6.6, which is cheaper than Nvidia, with PS = 16. However, it is known to be more expensive than Intel (INTC), which has a price-to-sales ratio = 2 because of slowing growth and execution issues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83597cf33c7d65ea1cd97f526dfbe428\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD PS Ratio data by YCharts</p><p><b>04. Risks and conclusion</b></p><p>A high inflationary environment is squeezing input costs for businesses. META (META) and many other tech companies have already announced plans to slow hiring. Additionally, \"cloud giants\" such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) have announced that they are extending the useful life of their servers and network assets from four to six years. Microsoft's chief financial officer recently said:</p><p>\"Investment in our software has improved the efficiency of our operating servers and networking equipment and advancements in technology, resulting in longevity beyond their historical accounting useful life.\" Such actions will directly impact companies such as AMD, as delayed IT spending will impact their growth rates and many others in the industry.</p><p>When it comes to technology, AMD is an amazing company and a true innovator. The fact that NVIDIA tried (but was blocked) to acquire the company is a testament to the quality of its technology and assets. It has a track record of rapid growth and excellent execution capabilities that other companies such as Intel can't. The stock remains undervalued, so this looks like a great opportunity in the long run. But, I do expect some short-term volatility next year due to IT spending cuts and softer gaming demand.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PITLaAy2a5nIJe0Zr3V5sg\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e516ca81c92e270102a5f7609fc5af99","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4566":"资本集团","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4573":"虚拟现实"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PITLaAy2a5nIJe0Zr3V5sg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1119283353","content_text":"摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）是高性能半导体芯片的领先供应商。该公司在过去几年中取得了巨大的增长，在截至 2022 年 6 月的季度，业绩继续大放异彩。尽管如此，在2021 年 11 月至 2022 年 7 月期间，股价已下跌约 51%。这主要是受高通胀和利率上升环境的推动。然而，在过去的一个月里，由于市场看到了抓住“以合理价格增长”的机会，股价实际上已经暴涨了约 33%。AMD 在本质上和相对于历史倍数而言仍然被低估。YCharts 提供的AMD数据01、商业模式AMD 在其四个主要业务领域拥有 1350 亿美元的潜在市场：数据中心 - $50B TAM个人电脑 - $40B TAM嵌入式 - $29B TAM游戏 - $16B TAMAMD TAM（2022 年投资者报告）由于超大规模云、超级计算、5G、自动驾驶汽车、模拟（元界）甚至物联网（物联网）等技术不断发展，预计这一市场机会将会扩大。技术趋势（2022 年投资者报告）AMD 在其四个主要细分市场中的三个细分市场（包括数据中心、PC 和嵌入式）中都是强大的类别领导者。NVIDIA ( NVDA ) 与 AMD 作为游戏 GPU 的领导者以及强大的数据中心产品相抗衡。两家公司此前计划合并，这将创建一个势不可挡的芯片公司，但因“监管挑战”而停止。AMD 的数据中心服务器处理器是同类产品中最好的。它的 AMD EPYC是“世界上性能最高的服务器处理器”。这提供了比高性能计算 (HPC)、云和企业工作负载中的竞争对手更高的性能。它的芯片已经部署在 AWS、Microsoft Azure 和 Google Cloud 等三大云提供商的基础设施中。此外，AMD 的芯片可以在腾讯云和阿里云等中国云领先设施中找到。在最近一个季度，微软 Azure 部署了 AMD Instinct MI200 加速器进行大规模人工智能 ( AI ) 训练，这是对公司领先技术的又一巨大认可。AMD 数据中心产品（2022 年投资者报告）AMD 的产品也广泛部署在思科、戴尔、惠普企业 ( HPE )、华硕、联想等企业中。AMD 驱动的 Frontier 超级计算机最近突破了 exaflop 的障碍并获得了行业认可。管理层已将成为“新数据中心领导者”作为战略重点，他们的目标是通过利用一流的技术、持续创新和执行一致的路线图来实现这一目标。在游戏领域，AMD 的 Zen 2 芯片用于 PlayStation 5 和 Xbox Series X/S。对于客户端 PC，AMD 的 Ryzen 处理器在价值和功耗方面领先于英特尔，并在其他领域提供非常接近的性能。AMD 产品（2022 年投资者演示文稿）与英特尔相比，AMD 提供更高效消耗的主要原因是其更小的 7nm（纳米）芯片。英特尔在努力执行最新的 7nm 芯片设计后已经落后。与此同时，AMD 已经发布了更小的 5nm 芯片，这将是这种尺寸的“世界首创”，预计将于 2022 年秋季上市。AMD Zen 5nm（2022 年投资者报告）02、不断增长的金融AMD 宣布了 2022 年第二季度的强劲收益。总收入为 66 亿美元，同比增长 70%。AMD 收入（收益 AMD）这一收入增长由强劲的数据中心收入推动，同比快速增长 83% 至 14.86 亿美元，营业利润率高达 32%。这是其 EPYC（霄龙）数据中心处理器销售强劲的结果。由于移动处理器销售强劲，客户收入猛增 25% 至 21.52 亿美元。博彩收入也增长了 32% 至 17 亿美元。这是由半定制产品销售的增长推动的，但图形收入确实略有下降。细分市场增长（AMD Q2 22 收益）嵌入式计算收入加速至 12.57 亿美元。这增长了令人瞠目结舌的 2,228%，但这一增长主要是由最近完成的收购带来的收入所推动的。AMD以全股票交易方式收购了Xilinx，该交易于 2020 年宣布，但最终于 2022 年初完成。Xilinx 是航空航天和军事应用中常用的 FPGA（现场可编程门阵列）的发明者。AMD 的毛利率为 46%，同比下降 2%。营业收入为 5.26 亿美元，占收入的 8%。同比下降 37%，主要是由于与 Xilinx 收购相关的无形资产摊销所致。每股收益也受到同一问题的影响，下降了 0.27 美元，而去年同期为 0.58 美元。好消息是，与收购相关的收入下降似乎更多是资产负债表的调整，而不是“真实美元”的下降。所以，我不认为这是一个向前发展的主要问题。非公认会计原则摊薄后每股收益实际上从一年前的 0.63 美元增至 1.05 美元。每股收益（AMD Q2 财务）AMD 拥有稳健的资产负债表，拥有 59.9 亿美元的现金和短期投资。除了约 28 亿美元的总债务外，由于 9.06 亿美元的强劲自由现金流（同比增长 43%），这是可以管理的。AMD 资产负债表（第二季度收益）03、不温不火的指导对于 2022 年第三季度，AMD 管理层预测收入为 67 亿美元，与之前提到的 70% 相比，增长率略低于 55%。全年收入预计为 263 亿美元（+/- 3 亿美元），同比增长约 60%。这些都是了不起的数字，然而，AMD 的首席执行官 Su 预测 PC 领域的增长将放缓。“我们对个人电脑业务采取了更为保守的看法，所以在一个季度之前，我们会认为个人电脑业务会下滑，让我们称之为高个位数，”高级估值模型为了对 AMD 进行估值，我将最新的财务数据插入了我的高级估值模型，该模型使用贴现现金流估值法。我保守地预测明年的收入将增长 48%，因为该公司的收入将从更大的基数增长。此外，我预测未来 2 到 5 年收入增长 28%。这一估值是由数据中心领域的预期实力继续推动的，以及强劲的数字化转型顺风。AMD 股票估值 1（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）我预测该公司的营业利润率将在未来 7 年稳步增长至约 18%，这主要得益于利润率较高的云领域的强劲增长。这些利润数字包括公司的研发费用，我已将其资本化以提高准确性。AMD 股票估值 2（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）鉴于这些数字，我得到每股 114 美元的公允价值。该股目前的交易价格为每股 98 美元，因此被低估了约 15%。作为一个额外的数据点，AMD 的市盈率 (P/E) ( FWD ) = 22.86，比其 5 年平均水平低 54%。AMD 的市销率 = 6.6，比 Nvidia 便宜，PS = 16。然而，众所周知，它比英特尔 ( INTC ) 更贵，英特尔 (INTC) 的市销率 = 2，因为增长放缓和执行问题。YCharts 提供的AMD PS 比率数据04、风险及结语高通胀环境正在挤压企业的投入成本。Meta ( META ) 和许多其他科技公司已经宣布了放缓招聘的计划。此外，微软 ( MSFT ) 和谷歌 ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) 等“云巨头”已宣布将其服务器和网络资产的使用寿命从四年延长至六年。微软首席财务官最近表示：“对我们软件的投资提高了我们操作服务器和网络设备的效率以及技术的进步，导致寿命延长到历史会计使用寿命之外”此类行动将直接影响 AMD 等公司，因为延迟的 IT 支出将影响其增长率以及业内许多其他公司。在技术方面，AMD 是一家了不起的公司和真正的创新者。NVIDIA 试图收购该公司（但被阻止）的事实证明了其技术和资产的质量。它拥有快速增长的记录和出色的执行能力，这是英特尔等其他公司无法做到的。该股票仍然被低估，因此从长远来看，这看起来是一个很好的机会。但是，由于 IT 支出削减和游戏需求疲软，我确实预计明年会出现一些短期波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"GFS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909842462,"gmtCreate":1658853528156,"gmtModify":1676536217858,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing ","listText":"Thanks for sharing ","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909842462","repostId":"1198339027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198339027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658848376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198339027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198339027","media":"人神共奋","summary":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Unpredictable, but copable<b>A small probability event with a high probability?</b></p><p>Every time an investment article writes about \"black swan\", someone always asks, \"Don't be useless, just talk about what black swan events may have occurred in the past two years.\"</p><p>I always regret to tell him: \"<b>The biggest feature of black swan events is unforeseeability</b>, are events that most people didn't expect, events that everyone is worried about, but they are unlikely to become black swan events. \"</p><p>Some people are still unconvinced: \"I understand this. I don't want you to tell you which events are more likely to become black swans as soon as you say it accurately.\"</p><p>Yeah? Small probability events with \"high probability\"? I'm sorry, I'm leaving!</p><p>Since it is unpredictable, what is the significance of discussing the black swan event?</p><p>Taleb, the author of Black Swan, divides black swan events into two types: the first is the black swan phenomenon that people talk about, and the second is the black swan event that no one knows.</p><p><b>As a \"small probability event\", the black swan event itself cannot be predicted or even avoided (i.e. the second type); However, as a \"common phenomenon\" with a high probability (that is, the first one), it can be dealt with and even used for profit.</b></p><p>This is Black Swan Thinking, the 14th article in the series of \"99 Thinking Models\". Let's talk about \"Black Swan Thinking\".</p><p><b>We don't know \"what we don't know\"</b></p><p>The unpredictability of black swans will cause a major cognitive obstacle-<b>We cannot understand its laws from past experience like other knowledge</b>, reflected in three aspects:</p><p><b>First, the black swan event is a small probability event and an event that is easily overlooked by people</b></p><p>This point, as analyzed earlier, people's first impression of small probability random events is: Why should I waste precious energy and resources just for this unlikely thing?</p><p>However, there are many small probability events in life, and not every event has a significant impact. Is this always a rule?</p><p>Unfortunately, there are rules, but they are not credible, which is the second reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Second, past experience is unreliable</b></p><p>Before there is a rear-end collision, you always think that the distance between yourself and the car in front is appropriate enough for you to react, and your basis is precisely that-this distance has never made me rear-end.</p><p><b>The unreliability of experience stems from the unreliability of \"induction\" itself</b>, all our experience, may be \"what the turkey thinks of the farmer before Thanksgiving\", which in turn constitutes the third reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Third, what you don't know is often the most important thing</b></p><p>Suppose a legislator, through relentless efforts, passed a law requiring airlines to install bulletproof doors to pilot cockpits and lock them from the inside (a requirement after 9/11) before September 2001?</p><p>Naturally, then there would be no \"911\". But here's the question. If \"911\" never happened, who would admit the \"contribution\" of this legislator? What is more likely is that airlines increase costs and are hated by employees.</p><p>Summarizing the reasons why \"black swans\" are unavoidable, the author said: \"<b>What we don't know is more important than what we know, which is the real reason why the black swan event appears</b>”。</p><p><b>Small probability events, unreliable experience, and things we don't know</b>, these are the three characteristics of the \"Black Swan\" incident.</p><p>Of course, people always want to take the initiative to control the situation. In the financial field, because the system is too complicated and important, the government has designed many mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of \"black swan\" incidents.</p><p>Take the financial crisis in 2008 as an example. To some extent, the financial crisis in 2008 was not a \"black swan event\". It lasted for a year, and it was a crisis that the whole market was worried about and all parties were fully mobilized, but watched it happen.</p><p>In fact, this makes it better reflect the three characteristics of the \"black swan\" event: \"small probability event, unreliable experience and things we don't know\".</p><p><b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely resolved</b></p><p>In the years before the subprime mortgage crisis, many people issued warnings of abnormal mortgage data in advance, and many smart investors began to trade the crisis in advance (you can read the article \"Only two days are happy in the life of a successful person\"), the most typical of which is the explosion in the circulation of CDS based on various CDOs (for details, see \"Can We Avoid the Next\" Subprime Mortgage Crisis \"?\" Article).</p><p>CDS is equivalent to financial institutions \"buying insurance\" for their subordinated debt. They feel bad in their hearts, but they subjectively feel that the problem is controllable.<b>This seemingly cautious and actually optimistic mood hits the \"unreliable past experience\" characteristic of the black swan event.</b></p><p>A series of events that happened later also seemed to \"verify\" people's experience. The prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off in April, 2007. New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage scale, filed for bankruptcy protection, and it was also the first financial institution to fail in the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>At that time, the mortgage crisis was already obvious, and the mortgage default rate exceeded a record 1 million units. However, the stock market only fell slightly to \"show respect\" and continued to hit new highs without looking back.</p><p><b>The truly unpredictable black swan factor in the financial crisis is the government's \"response\" to the crisis-investors all assume that someone is solving the problem, so they think that there is a high probability that it will not trigger a crisis.</b></p><p>In early July, 2007, bond rating agencies felt that \"paper couldn't hold the fire\" and began to downgrade the risk rating of subordinated debt. The market still only fell for one day.</p><p>It was not until late July that the fund products related to subprime loans began to explode that the market realized that the crisis had \"infected\" a large number of financial products from subprime debt, and realized that this was the most serious crisis since 9/11. The market finally had a decent \"plunge\" of more than 10%.</p><p>But the decline stopped in mid-August because the government finally made a move: the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and inject capital into more financial institutions; The Bush administration provided loan guarantees to borrowers hit by the subprime mortgage crisis; Congress is also considering a new plan to temporarily suspend the tax burden caused by mortgage default on home borrowers; The Treasury Department has set up a $100 billion fund to buy troubled mortgage securities...</p><p>When everyone saw it, all parties took action and policies were released. The economic situation itself was very good, but it was just a credit crisis in some areas. Even if this crisis passed, the stock market not only recovered its lost ground, but also reached a new high in October.</p><p>In fact, from October 2007 to July 2008, on the one hand, the sales of the property market continued to deteriorate, and the subordinated debt and default rate involved rose sharply. The crisis continued to deteriorate in the whole financial system, and subordinated debt-related products exploded one after another, and almost all financial institutions suffered huge losses; But on the other hand, these problems are overshadowed by the escalating capital injection plan of the Federal Reserve and the government's increased economic stimulus package.</p><p>In the contest between the crisis and the response to the crisis, most people still believe in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the government's toolbox, so although the market is slowly declining, it is still supported at a relatively high position.</p><p>Before the real plunge, there were two waves of crises in the market, one was the crisis of Bear Stearns, and the other was the crisis of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Finally, acquisitions and government takeovers pressed the \"pause button\" on the crisis.</p><p>These two actions of \"the magic is one foot high, the road is one foot high\" have given the market an illusion. Now the government's \"financial toolbox\" is very big, and a big financial crisis will not happen. This makes others, including the Federal Reserve and the government, also \"reflect\", are they \"too cautious\" or too wide? People are also complaining that policies waste taxpayers' money.</p><p><b>This \"illusion\" and \"reflection\" just verifies what Taleb said in his book that \"what we don't know is more important than what we know\". As a result, when facing the next object in need of help \"Lehman Brothers\", the Federal Reserve chose another path-let it go bankrupt.</b></p><p>After lurking for nearly a year, this \"black swan\" finally found an opportunity to show its true colors. Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the market only fell by 15% in one year, and then plummeted by 40% in the next two months. The subprime mortgage crisis immediately turned into a global financial crisis, and the credit of the whole society froze, which spread to the real economy. The unemployment rate hit the highest level since the end of World War II.</p><p>Everyone knows that the best way to deal with this kind of financial crisis is to inject liquidity far beyond the crisis level on a large scale and nip it in the bud. But,<b>If the stock market doesn't \"die for you\", how can Congress pass the 700 billion bailout plan so quickly? How can Wall Street banks accept government capital injections?</b></p><p><b>Everyone knows that the Black Swan event is costly, but everyone questions the necessary sacrifices in advance</b>, take this year's Federal Reserve rate hike as an example. Everyone knows that rate hike was the best way when inflation first started, but if inflation was really beaten down once or twice, most people will begin to question again, how can there be inflation? The Fed is scaring people again.</p><p>This is the fourth feature of the financial \"black swan\" event:<b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely solved.</b></p><p>Therefore, the specific \"black swan event\" itself cannot be predicted and avoided, but there are some basic ways to deal with the \"black swan phenomenon\".</p><p><b>Three ways to deal with a black swan</b></p><p>There are three different attitudes to dealing with black swan events:</p><p><b>The first is Buffett's \"passive exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>The best reflection of Buffett's response to the \"black swan incident\" is his letter to shareholders in 1994:</p><p>\"We will continue to ignore political forecasts and economic forecasts, which are costly pastimes for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one predicted the widespread spread of the Vietnam War, wage and price control, two oil crises, the resignation of the president, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Dow plummeting 508 points in one day, or the yield of short-term government bonds (Treasury Bill) fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. Surprisingly, however, these once sensational major events never made Ben Graham's investment principles flaw in the slightest, nor made any mistakes in buying excellent companies at reasonable prices. Imagine how much it will cost us if we delay or change our allocation and use of funds because of these inexplicable fears. In fact, we usually take advantage of the moment when some major macro event leads to the peak of market pessimism to find the best buying opportunities. \" It seems that Buffett's attitude towards the crisis is the simplest, that is, not to predict the crisis. Once it occurs, he must seize this opportunity and buy a good company.</p><p>This approach seems to be the easiest for ordinary people to learn, but in fact it is not the case. Buffett's main successful investment in the later period made him make a lot of money<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, none of them were bought during the Black Swan incident. On the contrary, they were considered too expensive when they were bought. And his sale in aviation stocks at the \"bottom of the epidemic\" in 2020 was actually based on the experience of the short-term impact of the 9/11 incident on aviation stocks, which was later denied by himself.</p><p><b>Buffett can ignore the \"black swan\", but it is also difficult to take advantage of it, because the impact on stock prices caused by crisis events seems large, but for long-term investments lasting for more than ten years, the impact on final returns is minimal.</b></p><p><b>The second is Taleb's \"active exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>Taleb's attitude is completely opposite to Buffett's.<b>A black swan event is a risk for most people, but if you are on the side of most people's counterparties, it is a \"winning lottery ticket\".</b></p><p>Taleb has many trades based on the black swan theory. He once bought \"$5 sell\" at extremely low prices<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Put options \", when General Motors' stock price was still above $30. For example, when you were in Maotai for 2,000 yuan, you bet with others that Maotai would fall to 300 yuan. It seems like a very stupid transaction, so he can buy it for almost nothing. But by the time of 9/11 incident, these put options didn't look so outrageous, and the price naturally went up. Empirica, the hedge fund he manages, has many similar investments, all of which made a fortune in the 9/11 and 2008 crises.</p><p>But Taleb's method is more difficult to learn. His own evaluation is:</p><p>\"Expecting a black swan event is risky, and you will pay the price of\" bloodshed \". You lose a little every day for a long time until an event happens, which gives you disproportionately high returns. No single event can make you miserable, but on the other hand, certain changes can give you huge returns that can make up for small losses over years, decades or even centuries.\" To reduce the difficulty, Taleb later spread it into<b>The \"barbell strategy\" allocates 90% of assets to Treasury Bond and money funds with almost no risk, and allocates a small part of assets to products similar to the above that can make profits in the \"black swan event\".</b></p><p>(For more about Taleb's investment philosophy, please read today's next article)</p><p><b>The third is Bridgewater Fund's \"all-weather strategy\"</b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's most famous \"all-weather strategy\" model has two dimensions, \"economic upward and downward\" and \"inflation upward and downward\", which constitute four quadrants and represent large classes of assets with the same risk weight corresponding to the four environments. The portfolio has higher yields while maintaining lower pullback/retracement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Different from the traditional combination idea of \"allocating different assets in different cycles\",<b>The \"all-weather strategy\" uses the above set of strategies to deal with all economic environments-including the extreme situation of black swan crisis, of course.</b></p><p>In order to achieve \"risk parity of all assets\", it is necessary to use high leverage in certain low-risk varieties (such as bonds), which requires Dalio to consider black swan risks in the overall portfolio.<b>For this reason, Dalio studied all the extreme events that have occurred in major economies in the past few hundred years, which obviously conflicts with Taleb's statement that \"past experience is unreliable\".</b></p><p>But in any case, Bridgewater Fund has been safe and sound in the impact of recent financial crises (although his portfolio almost \"exploded\" in the world's first wave of COVID-19 pandemic shocks in 2020), and when there is no crisis, It has also outperformed the market. As for whether it will still be effective in future black swan events, I hope we can know this answer in our lifetime (maybe soon).</p><p>Most of the \"macro hedge strategy funds\" on the market are born out of \"all-weather strategies\", so these products are the easiest way for you to deal with the \"black swan event\" at present-but if you believe in Taleb's philosophy There is no doubt that this kind of product is not necessarily reliable either.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Key points of black swan thinking:</p><p>1. The unpredictability of the \"black swan\" event stems from its three characteristics: small probability events, unreliable experience and things we don't know;</p><p>2. The fourth characteristic of the financial black swan: only by letting the crisis break out completely can the crisis be completely solved, so the government's response is the biggest black swan;</p><p>3. Black swan is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. There are three coping attitudes: passive utilization, active utilization, and all-weather strategy;</p><p>Finally, there is the most basic attitude Taleb tells us: you must fall in love with failure, as long as you avoid decisive failure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583721040246","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人神共奋</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-26 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Unpredictable, but copable<b>A small probability event with a high probability?</b></p><p>Every time an investment article writes about \"black swan\", someone always asks, \"Don't be useless, just talk about what black swan events may have occurred in the past two years.\"</p><p>I always regret to tell him: \"<b>The biggest feature of black swan events is unforeseeability</b>, are events that most people didn't expect, events that everyone is worried about, but they are unlikely to become black swan events. \"</p><p>Some people are still unconvinced: \"I understand this. I don't want you to tell you which events are more likely to become black swans as soon as you say it accurately.\"</p><p>Yeah? Small probability events with \"high probability\"? I'm sorry, I'm leaving!</p><p>Since it is unpredictable, what is the significance of discussing the black swan event?</p><p>Taleb, the author of Black Swan, divides black swan events into two types: the first is the black swan phenomenon that people talk about, and the second is the black swan event that no one knows.</p><p><b>As a \"small probability event\", the black swan event itself cannot be predicted or even avoided (i.e. the second type); However, as a \"common phenomenon\" with a high probability (that is, the first one), it can be dealt with and even used for profit.</b></p><p>This is Black Swan Thinking, the 14th article in the series of \"99 Thinking Models\". Let's talk about \"Black Swan Thinking\".</p><p><b>We don't know \"what we don't know\"</b></p><p>The unpredictability of black swans will cause a major cognitive obstacle-<b>We cannot understand its laws from past experience like other knowledge</b>, reflected in three aspects:</p><p><b>First, the black swan event is a small probability event and an event that is easily overlooked by people</b></p><p>This point, as analyzed earlier, people's first impression of small probability random events is: Why should I waste precious energy and resources just for this unlikely thing?</p><p>However, there are many small probability events in life, and not every event has a significant impact. Is this always a rule?</p><p>Unfortunately, there are rules, but they are not credible, which is the second reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Second, past experience is unreliable</b></p><p>Before there is a rear-end collision, you always think that the distance between yourself and the car in front is appropriate enough for you to react, and your basis is precisely that-this distance has never made me rear-end.</p><p><b>The unreliability of experience stems from the unreliability of \"induction\" itself</b>, all our experience, may be \"what the turkey thinks of the farmer before Thanksgiving\", which in turn constitutes the third reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Third, what you don't know is often the most important thing</b></p><p>Suppose a legislator, through relentless efforts, passed a law requiring airlines to install bulletproof doors to pilot cockpits and lock them from the inside (a requirement after 9/11) before September 2001?</p><p>Naturally, then there would be no \"911\". But here's the question. If \"911\" never happened, who would admit the \"contribution\" of this legislator? What is more likely is that airlines increase costs and are hated by employees.</p><p>Summarizing the reasons why \"black swans\" are unavoidable, the author said: \"<b>What we don't know is more important than what we know, which is the real reason why the black swan event appears</b>”。</p><p><b>Small probability events, unreliable experience, and things we don't know</b>, these are the three characteristics of the \"Black Swan\" incident.</p><p>Of course, people always want to take the initiative to control the situation. In the financial field, because the system is too complicated and important, the government has designed many mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of \"black swan\" incidents.</p><p>Take the financial crisis in 2008 as an example. To some extent, the financial crisis in 2008 was not a \"black swan event\". It lasted for a year, and it was a crisis that the whole market was worried about and all parties were fully mobilized, but watched it happen.</p><p>In fact, this makes it better reflect the three characteristics of the \"black swan\" event: \"small probability event, unreliable experience and things we don't know\".</p><p><b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely resolved</b></p><p>In the years before the subprime mortgage crisis, many people issued warnings of abnormal mortgage data in advance, and many smart investors began to trade the crisis in advance (you can read the article \"Only two days are happy in the life of a successful person\"), the most typical of which is the explosion in the circulation of CDS based on various CDOs (for details, see \"Can We Avoid the Next\" Subprime Mortgage Crisis \"?\" Article).</p><p>CDS is equivalent to financial institutions \"buying insurance\" for their subordinated debt. They feel bad in their hearts, but they subjectively feel that the problem is controllable.<b>This seemingly cautious and actually optimistic mood hits the \"unreliable past experience\" characteristic of the black swan event.</b></p><p>A series of events that happened later also seemed to \"verify\" people's experience. The prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off in April, 2007. New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage scale, filed for bankruptcy protection, and it was also the first financial institution to fail in the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>At that time, the mortgage crisis was already obvious, and the mortgage default rate exceeded a record 1 million units. However, the stock market only fell slightly to \"show respect\" and continued to hit new highs without looking back.</p><p><b>The truly unpredictable black swan factor in the financial crisis is the government's \"response\" to the crisis-investors all assume that someone is solving the problem, so they think that there is a high probability that it will not trigger a crisis.</b></p><p>In early July, 2007, bond rating agencies felt that \"paper couldn't hold the fire\" and began to downgrade the risk rating of subordinated debt. The market still only fell for one day.</p><p>It was not until late July that the fund products related to subprime loans began to explode that the market realized that the crisis had \"infected\" a large number of financial products from subprime debt, and realized that this was the most serious crisis since 9/11. The market finally had a decent \"plunge\" of more than 10%.</p><p>But the decline stopped in mid-August because the government finally made a move: the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and inject capital into more financial institutions; The Bush administration provided loan guarantees to borrowers hit by the subprime mortgage crisis; Congress is also considering a new plan to temporarily suspend the tax burden caused by mortgage default on home borrowers; The Treasury Department has set up a $100 billion fund to buy troubled mortgage securities...</p><p>When everyone saw it, all parties took action and policies were released. The economic situation itself was very good, but it was just a credit crisis in some areas. Even if this crisis passed, the stock market not only recovered its lost ground, but also reached a new high in October.</p><p>In fact, from October 2007 to July 2008, on the one hand, the sales of the property market continued to deteriorate, and the subordinated debt and default rate involved rose sharply. The crisis continued to deteriorate in the whole financial system, and subordinated debt-related products exploded one after another, and almost all financial institutions suffered huge losses; But on the other hand, these problems are overshadowed by the escalating capital injection plan of the Federal Reserve and the government's increased economic stimulus package.</p><p>In the contest between the crisis and the response to the crisis, most people still believe in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the government's toolbox, so although the market is slowly declining, it is still supported at a relatively high position.</p><p>Before the real plunge, there were two waves of crises in the market, one was the crisis of Bear Stearns, and the other was the crisis of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Finally, acquisitions and government takeovers pressed the \"pause button\" on the crisis.</p><p>These two actions of \"the magic is one foot high, the road is one foot high\" have given the market an illusion. Now the government's \"financial toolbox\" is very big, and a big financial crisis will not happen. This makes others, including the Federal Reserve and the government, also \"reflect\", are they \"too cautious\" or too wide? People are also complaining that policies waste taxpayers' money.</p><p><b>This \"illusion\" and \"reflection\" just verifies what Taleb said in his book that \"what we don't know is more important than what we know\". As a result, when facing the next object in need of help \"Lehman Brothers\", the Federal Reserve chose another path-let it go bankrupt.</b></p><p>After lurking for nearly a year, this \"black swan\" finally found an opportunity to show its true colors. Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the market only fell by 15% in one year, and then plummeted by 40% in the next two months. The subprime mortgage crisis immediately turned into a global financial crisis, and the credit of the whole society froze, which spread to the real economy. The unemployment rate hit the highest level since the end of World War II.</p><p>Everyone knows that the best way to deal with this kind of financial crisis is to inject liquidity far beyond the crisis level on a large scale and nip it in the bud. But,<b>If the stock market doesn't \"die for you\", how can Congress pass the 700 billion bailout plan so quickly? How can Wall Street banks accept government capital injections?</b></p><p><b>Everyone knows that the Black Swan event is costly, but everyone questions the necessary sacrifices in advance</b>, take this year's Federal Reserve rate hike as an example. Everyone knows that rate hike was the best way when inflation first started, but if inflation was really beaten down once or twice, most people will begin to question again, how can there be inflation? The Fed is scaring people again.</p><p>This is the fourth feature of the financial \"black swan\" event:<b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely solved.</b></p><p>Therefore, the specific \"black swan event\" itself cannot be predicted and avoided, but there are some basic ways to deal with the \"black swan phenomenon\".</p><p><b>Three ways to deal with a black swan</b></p><p>There are three different attitudes to dealing with black swan events:</p><p><b>The first is Buffett's \"passive exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>The best reflection of Buffett's response to the \"black swan incident\" is his letter to shareholders in 1994:</p><p>\"We will continue to ignore political forecasts and economic forecasts, which are costly pastimes for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one predicted the widespread spread of the Vietnam War, wage and price control, two oil crises, the resignation of the president, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Dow plummeting 508 points in one day, or the yield of short-term government bonds (Treasury Bill) fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. Surprisingly, however, these once sensational major events never made Ben Graham's investment principles flaw in the slightest, nor made any mistakes in buying excellent companies at reasonable prices. Imagine how much it will cost us if we delay or change our allocation and use of funds because of these inexplicable fears. In fact, we usually take advantage of the moment when some major macro event leads to the peak of market pessimism to find the best buying opportunities. \" It seems that Buffett's attitude towards the crisis is the simplest, that is, not to predict the crisis. Once it occurs, he must seize this opportunity and buy a good company.</p><p>This approach seems to be the easiest for ordinary people to learn, but in fact it is not the case. Buffett's main successful investment in the later period made him make a lot of money<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, none of them were bought during the Black Swan incident. On the contrary, they were considered too expensive when they were bought. And his sale in aviation stocks at the \"bottom of the epidemic\" in 2020 was actually based on the experience of the short-term impact of the 9/11 incident on aviation stocks, which was later denied by himself.</p><p><b>Buffett can ignore the \"black swan\", but it is also difficult to take advantage of it, because the impact on stock prices caused by crisis events seems large, but for long-term investments lasting for more than ten years, the impact on final returns is minimal.</b></p><p><b>The second is Taleb's \"active exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>Taleb's attitude is completely opposite to Buffett's.<b>A black swan event is a risk for most people, but if you are on the side of most people's counterparties, it is a \"winning lottery ticket\".</b></p><p>Taleb has many trades based on the black swan theory. He once bought \"$5 sell\" at extremely low prices<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Put options \", when General Motors' stock price was still above $30. For example, when you were in Maotai for 2,000 yuan, you bet with others that Maotai would fall to 300 yuan. It seems like a very stupid transaction, so he can buy it for almost nothing. But by the time of 9/11 incident, these put options didn't look so outrageous, and the price naturally went up. Empirica, the hedge fund he manages, has many similar investments, all of which made a fortune in the 9/11 and 2008 crises.</p><p>But Taleb's method is more difficult to learn. His own evaluation is:</p><p>\"Expecting a black swan event is risky, and you will pay the price of\" bloodshed \". You lose a little every day for a long time until an event happens, which gives you disproportionately high returns. No single event can make you miserable, but on the other hand, certain changes can give you huge returns that can make up for small losses over years, decades or even centuries.\" To reduce the difficulty, Taleb later spread it into<b>The \"barbell strategy\" allocates 90% of assets to Treasury Bond and money funds with almost no risk, and allocates a small part of assets to products similar to the above that can make profits in the \"black swan event\".</b></p><p>(For more about Taleb's investment philosophy, please read today's next article)</p><p><b>The third is Bridgewater Fund's \"all-weather strategy\"</b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's most famous \"all-weather strategy\" model has two dimensions, \"economic upward and downward\" and \"inflation upward and downward\", which constitute four quadrants and represent large classes of assets with the same risk weight corresponding to the four environments. The portfolio has higher yields while maintaining lower pullback/retracement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Different from the traditional combination idea of \"allocating different assets in different cycles\",<b>The \"all-weather strategy\" uses the above set of strategies to deal with all economic environments-including the extreme situation of black swan crisis, of course.</b></p><p>In order to achieve \"risk parity of all assets\", it is necessary to use high leverage in certain low-risk varieties (such as bonds), which requires Dalio to consider black swan risks in the overall portfolio.<b>For this reason, Dalio studied all the extreme events that have occurred in major economies in the past few hundred years, which obviously conflicts with Taleb's statement that \"past experience is unreliable\".</b></p><p>But in any case, Bridgewater Fund has been safe and sound in the impact of recent financial crises (although his portfolio almost \"exploded\" in the world's first wave of COVID-19 pandemic shocks in 2020), and when there is no crisis, It has also outperformed the market. As for whether it will still be effective in future black swan events, I hope we can know this answer in our lifetime (maybe soon).</p><p>Most of the \"macro hedge strategy funds\" on the market are born out of \"all-weather strategies\", so these products are the easiest way for you to deal with the \"black swan event\" at present-but if you believe in Taleb's philosophy There is no doubt that this kind of product is not necessarily reliable either.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Key points of black swan thinking:</p><p>1. The unpredictability of the \"black swan\" event stems from its three characteristics: small probability events, unreliable experience and things we don't know;</p><p>2. The fourth characteristic of the financial black swan: only by letting the crisis break out completely can the crisis be completely solved, so the government's response is the biggest black swan;</p><p>3. Black swan is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. There are three coping attitudes: passive utilization, active utilization, and all-weather strategy;</p><p>Finally, there is the most basic attitude Taleb tells us: you must fall in love with failure, as long as you avoid decisive failure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd\">人神共奋</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198339027","content_text":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。我们不知道“我们不知道什么”黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律，体现在三个方面：第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：第二、过去的经验不可靠在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因”。小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。应对黑天鹅的三种方法应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的苹果、可口可乐，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出通用汽车的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。总结黑天鹅思维的要点 ：1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909849432,"gmtCreate":1658851681026,"gmtModify":1676536217738,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points ","listText":"Good points ","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909849432","repostId":"1113527890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113527890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658849122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113527890?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113527890","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Key valuation metrics indicate that GOOG is trading at a discount to historical valuation standards. Despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The stock price may fall in the short term due to economic news, but its long-term business orientation can increase its free cash flow.</p><p>Alphabet Inc. 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) valuation doesn't match the tech company's solid and recession-proof market position.</p><p>Google's companies generate large amounts of regular, predictable, low-risk cash flows that are expected to increase over time. Google's strong free cash flow growth and long-term good yields make it a very attractive investment option.</p><p>Lower P/E relative to Google's sales potential reduces risk, and the ability to increase cash flow in a variety of market conditions makes GOOG one of the best stocks to invest in.</p><p><b>01. Huge free cash flow and shareholder-friendly management</b></p><p>Google's management has proven that they have a long-term vision and use cash in a reasonable, value-adding way. Google is at the forefront of numerous industries at the same time, whether it's the acquisition of YouTube a few years ago, a smart and visionary investment in the cloud market, or more recently with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(Amazon) partnered to monetize e-commerce expansion.</p><p>As a result of this foresight, the company has seen steady growth in revenue and free cash flow. Investors are particularly interested in Google's free cash flow growth because free cash flow is a statistic that indicates how much cash a company can return to shareholders in the form of Dividend or share buybacks.</p><p>Google is a real beast when it comes to cash flow. In the most recent quarter alone, the company received $25.1 billion in cash from operations. After deducting $9.8 billion in capital expenditures, the company's capital expenditures were $15.3 billion. Google's free cash flow growth is phenomenal, with total free cash flow up 141.9% over the past five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>02. What does Google do with this cash?</b></p><p>It uses a fair portion of its free cash flow to buy back shares in the market. Alphabet's board has approved the company's $70 billion share repurchase, and the deal will take place when management deems fit. Google's free cash flow and share buybacks have increased over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p>The free cash flow trend is positive, and the company is about to experience a major trigger that could propel its cash flow to new heights.</p><p><b>03. Growth catalyst: YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>The move comes just days after YouTube made headlines by announcing a new partnership with e-commerce giant Shopify.</p><p>As part of the partnership, Shopify will integrate its shopping system into creators' YouTube pages, allowing viewers to shop directly on YouTube without needing to leave the site.</p><p>The partnership is helped by two big factors: YouTube has 2 billion logged-in users every month, and Shopify is the leading platform for small businesses. There are considerable synergies in this relationship, with YouTube's creative community set to gain a lot from an integrated shopping service and Shopify benefiting from entering a potentially undersupplied market.</p><p>In my opinion, SMBs have a lot of overlap with the two core users of YouTube or Shopify platforms. YouTube will be able to benefit from Shopify's inventory syncing expertise, while producers will be able to simply make their products available for purchase on their channels, resulting in a seamless buying experience. The Shopify connection on YouTube also allows producers to sell merchandise during live streams, which could change not only the e-commerce business, but Google as well.</p><p>I am very excited about Google's potential and believe that Google has very good revenue opportunities here. Google mainly pockets YouTube through advertising, but it also offers subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. A partnership with e-commerce will be announced soon, which could be a powerful accelerator for the development of excellent sales for video streaming platforms.</p><p><b>04. Google's yield is 5%, and the stock is very cheap</b></p><p>Investing is simple. You are buying quality businesses that have steady cash flow within their respective industries and the potential to attract long-term growth. In ideal circumstances, this increase is greatly discounted, as is the case with Google.</p><p>The market expects EPS of $5.47 in 2022, implying EPS of 5.1% at the current price of $110. (Implied P/E 19.8 x). Based on expected earnings of $6.46 per share next year, Google's earnings yield will rise to 6.0%. (Implied return multiple 16.8 x).</p><p>With the consensus estimate of annual earnings growth of 18.1%, the yield of 5% (equivalent to 20 times P/E) is quite low, indicating that the market is too worried about Google's growth. However, the relationship between YouTube and Shopify could help Google's revenue growth, which is not fully reflected in current projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Google)</p><p>In addition to P/E, valuation indices have stabilized recently, suggesting that the market's risk aversion towards Google has risen.</p><p>Valuation metrics such as the price-to-free cash flow ratio, enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, and enterprise value-to-cash flow ratio all fell significantly in 2022, indicating that the market has begun to underestimate Google's growth prospects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>05. Why Google's valuation is lower</b></p><p>Google's cash flow relies heavily on the company's performance in digital advertising. A recession has the potential to reduce Google's ad revenue, which could be reflected in lower free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the amount of free cash flow Google has, the technology business has handled the downturn well. A drop in e-commerce spending won't undermine YouTube and Shopify's alliance before the recession begins, but it may take longer for the market to recognize its true potential.</p><p><b>06. Conclusion</b></p><p>Google is a great deal at 16.8 x P/E, and I bought this stock in a big way with the current stock price drop.</p><p>Google isn't the only big tech company taking a hit right now, but the company's cash flow is very strong. Although the company's stock may fall in the short term because of economic news, the company's long-term business orientation is quite strong and free cash flow is increasing nicely.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-26 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Key valuation metrics indicate that GOOG is trading at a discount to historical valuation standards. Despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The stock price may fall in the short term due to economic news, but its long-term business orientation can increase its free cash flow.</p><p>Alphabet Inc. 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) valuation doesn't match the tech company's solid and recession-proof market position.</p><p>Google's companies generate large amounts of regular, predictable, low-risk cash flows that are expected to increase over time. Google's strong free cash flow growth and long-term good yields make it a very attractive investment option.</p><p>Lower P/E relative to Google's sales potential reduces risk, and the ability to increase cash flow in a variety of market conditions makes GOOG one of the best stocks to invest in.</p><p><b>01. Huge free cash flow and shareholder-friendly management</b></p><p>Google's management has proven that they have a long-term vision and use cash in a reasonable, value-adding way. Google is at the forefront of numerous industries at the same time, whether it's the acquisition of YouTube a few years ago, a smart and visionary investment in the cloud market, or more recently with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(Amazon) partnered to monetize e-commerce expansion.</p><p>As a result of this foresight, the company has seen steady growth in revenue and free cash flow. Investors are particularly interested in Google's free cash flow growth because free cash flow is a statistic that indicates how much cash a company can return to shareholders in the form of Dividend or share buybacks.</p><p>Google is a real beast when it comes to cash flow. In the most recent quarter alone, the company received $25.1 billion in cash from operations. After deducting $9.8 billion in capital expenditures, the company's capital expenditures were $15.3 billion. Google's free cash flow growth is phenomenal, with total free cash flow up 141.9% over the past five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>02. What does Google do with this cash?</b></p><p>It uses a fair portion of its free cash flow to buy back shares in the market. Alphabet's board has approved the company's $70 billion share repurchase, and the deal will take place when management deems fit. Google's free cash flow and share buybacks have increased over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p>The free cash flow trend is positive, and the company is about to experience a major trigger that could propel its cash flow to new heights.</p><p><b>03. Growth catalyst: YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>The move comes just days after YouTube made headlines by announcing a new partnership with e-commerce giant Shopify.</p><p>As part of the partnership, Shopify will integrate its shopping system into creators' YouTube pages, allowing viewers to shop directly on YouTube without needing to leave the site.</p><p>The partnership is helped by two big factors: YouTube has 2 billion logged-in users every month, and Shopify is the leading platform for small businesses. There are considerable synergies in this relationship, with YouTube's creative community set to gain a lot from an integrated shopping service and Shopify benefiting from entering a potentially undersupplied market.</p><p>In my opinion, SMBs have a lot of overlap with the two core users of YouTube or Shopify platforms. YouTube will be able to benefit from Shopify's inventory syncing expertise, while producers will be able to simply make their products available for purchase on their channels, resulting in a seamless buying experience. The Shopify connection on YouTube also allows producers to sell merchandise during live streams, which could change not only the e-commerce business, but Google as well.</p><p>I am very excited about Google's potential and believe that Google has very good revenue opportunities here. Google mainly pockets YouTube through advertising, but it also offers subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. A partnership with e-commerce will be announced soon, which could be a powerful accelerator for the development of excellent sales for video streaming platforms.</p><p><b>04. Google's yield is 5%, and the stock is very cheap</b></p><p>Investing is simple. You are buying quality businesses that have steady cash flow within their respective industries and the potential to attract long-term growth. In ideal circumstances, this increase is greatly discounted, as is the case with Google.</p><p>The market expects EPS of $5.47 in 2022, implying EPS of 5.1% at the current price of $110. (Implied P/E 19.8 x). Based on expected earnings of $6.46 per share next year, Google's earnings yield will rise to 6.0%. (Implied return multiple 16.8 x).</p><p>With the consensus estimate of annual earnings growth of 18.1%, the yield of 5% (equivalent to 20 times P/E) is quite low, indicating that the market is too worried about Google's growth. However, the relationship between YouTube and Shopify could help Google's revenue growth, which is not fully reflected in current projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Google)</p><p>In addition to P/E, valuation indices have stabilized recently, suggesting that the market's risk aversion towards Google has risen.</p><p>Valuation metrics such as the price-to-free cash flow ratio, enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, and enterprise value-to-cash flow ratio all fell significantly in 2022, indicating that the market has begun to underestimate Google's growth prospects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>05. Why Google's valuation is lower</b></p><p>Google's cash flow relies heavily on the company's performance in digital advertising. A recession has the potential to reduce Google's ad revenue, which could be reflected in lower free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the amount of free cash flow Google has, the technology business has handled the downturn well. A drop in e-commerce spending won't undermine YouTube and Shopify's alliance before the recession begins, but it may take longer for the market to recognize its true potential.</p><p><b>06. Conclusion</b></p><p>Google is a great deal at 16.8 x P/E, and I bought this stock in a big way with the current stock price drop.</p><p>Google isn't the only big tech company taking a hit right now, but the company's cash flow is very strong. Although the company's stock may fall in the short term because of economic news, the company's long-term business orientation is quite strong and free cash flow is increasing nicely.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"BK4538":"云计算","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4503":"景林资产持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1113527890","content_text":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与这家科技公司稳健且能抵御经济衰退的市场地位不符。谷歌的公司产生了大量定期的、可预测的、低风险的现金流，预计随着时间的推移会增加。谷歌强劲的自由现金流增长和长期良好的收益率使其成为一个非常有吸引力的投资选择。相对于谷歌的销售潜力而言，较低的市盈率降低了风险，而且在各种市场条件下增加现金流的能力使GOOG成为最值得投资的股票之一。01、巨大的自由现金流和股东友好型管理谷歌的管理层已经证明，他们的眼光是长远的，并以合理的、增值的方式使用现金。谷歌同时走在了众多行业的前列，无论是几年前收购YouTube，还是在云市场上明智而有远见的投资，还是最近与亚马逊(Amazon)合作，利用电子商务扩张获利。由于这种远见卓识，公司的收入和自由现金流稳步增长。投资者对谷歌的自由现金流增长特别感兴趣，因为自由现金流是一个统计数据，它表明了一家公司可以将多少现金以股息或股票回购的形式返还给股东。说到现金流，谷歌真是一头猛兽。仅在最近一个季度，该公司就从运营中获得了251亿美元的现金。扣除98亿美元的资本支出后，该公司的资本支出为153亿美元。谷歌的自由现金流增长非常惊人，在过去五年里，总自由现金流增长了141.9%。数据来源：YCharts02、谷歌用这些现金做什么?它用相当一部分自由现金流在市场上回购股票。Alphabet董事会已批准该公司回购700亿美元的股票，交易将在管理层认为合适的时候进行。谷歌的自由现金流和股票回购随着时间的推移而增加。数据来源：YCharts自由现金流趋势为正，该公司即将经历一个可能推动其现金流达到新高度的主要触发器。03、增长催化剂：YouTube/Shopify Partnership就在几天前，YouTube宣布与电子商务巨头Shopify建立新的合作伙伴关系，成为头条新闻。作为合作的一部分，Shopify将把其购物系统整合到创作者的YouTube页面，允许观众直接在YouTube上购物，而不需要离开网站。这次合作得益于两大因素:YouTube每月有20亿登录用户，Shopify是面向小企业的领先平台。这种关系有相当大的协同效应，YouTube的创意社区将从综合购物服务中获益良多，而Shopify将从进入一个可能供应不足的市场中获益。在我看来，中小企业与YouTube或Shopify平台这两个核心用户有很多重叠之处。YouTube将能够受益于Shopify的库存同步专业知识，而生产者将能够简单地使他们的产品可在他们的渠道上购买，从而产生无缝的购买体验。YouTube上的Shopify连接还允许制作人在直播过程中销售商品，这不仅可能改变电商业务，也可能改变谷歌。我对谷歌的潜力感到非常兴奋，相信谷歌在这里有非常好的收入机会。谷歌主要通过广告将YouTube收入囊中，但它也提供YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等订阅服务。与电子商务的合作将很快公布，这可能会成为视频流媒体平台出色销售发展的强大加速器。04、谷歌的收益率为5%，股票非常便宜投资很简单。你购买的是在各自行业内具有稳定现金流和吸引长期增长潜力的优质企业。在理想情况下，这种增加被大大打折，就像谷歌的情况一样。市场预计2022年每股收益为5.47美元，这意味着按目前110美元的价格计算，每股收益为5.1%。(隐含市盈率19.8倍)。根据明年预期每股收益6.46美元计算，谷歌的收益收益率将升至6.0%。(隐含收益倍数16.8倍)。在市场普遍预期年收益增长18.1%的情况下，5%的收益率(相当于20倍的市盈率)是相当低的，这表明市场对谷歌的增长过于担忧。然而，YouTube和Shopify之间的关系可能有助于谷歌的收入增长，目前的预测并没有完全反映出来。收入估算（谷歌）除了市盈率之外，估值指数最近也趋于稳定，这表明市场对谷歌的避险情绪有所上升。2022年，价格与自由现金流比率、企业价值与EBITDA比率、企业价值与现金流比率等估值指标均大幅下降，表明市场已经开始低估谷歌的增长前景。数据来源：YCharts05、为什么谷歌的估值会更低谷歌的现金流严重依赖于公司在数字广告领域的表现。经济衰退有可能减少谷歌的广告收入，这可能反映在自由现金流下降。考虑到谷歌的自由现金流数额，该技术业务很好地应对了经济低迷。在经济衰退开始之前，电子商务支出的下降不会破坏YouTube和Shopify的联盟，但市场可能需要更长的时间才能认识到其真正的潜力。06、结论在16.8倍市盈率的情况下，谷歌非常划算，在当前股价下跌的情况下，我大举买入了这只股票。谷歌并不是目前唯一一家遭受打击的大型科技公司，但该公司的现金流非常强劲。尽管该公司的股票可能会因为经济消息而在短期内下跌，但该公司的长期业务导向相当强，自由现金流正在很好地增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044924018,"gmtCreate":1656692704634,"gmtModify":1676535878685,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recover to what level ? ","listText":"Recover to what level ? ","text":"Recover to what level ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044924018","repostId":"1188024956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188024956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656641744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188024956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188024956","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analy","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 10:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188024956","content_text":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as investors are seeking safer investments amid persistent macro uncertainty. Shares of Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) have shed 49% of their value year-to-date. While the firm’s long-term prospects look promising, Wall Street analysts are mixed in their sentiment on the stock.Palantir helps government and commercial organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations at scale.The data analytics firm’s first-quarter earnings miss and weak second-quarter guidance also dragged down its stock last month.Financial SnapshotPalantir’s Q1’22 revenue increased 31% to $446 million, but adjusted EPS declined 50% to $0.02. Revenue surpassed analysts’ expectations while adjusted EPS fell short of estimates. Also, the company’s Q2’22 outlook of $470 million (base case) lagged Wall Street’s estimates.Investors also noted a slowdown in Palantir’s Government revenue, which grew 16% to nearly $242 million in Q1’22, compared to the 26% growth rate in Q4’21.Often criticized for its over-dependence on government contracts, Palantir started focusing on expanding its presence in the commercial markets over the recent times. In Q1’22, overall Commercial revenue grew 54% to about $205 million, with U.S Commercial revenue surging 136%.Looking ahead, Palantir is optimistic about delivering annual revenue growth of 30% or more through 2025. The company feels that there is a “wide range of potential upside” to deliver revenue above its Q2 outlook, including demand triggered by the ongoing geopolitical events.Wall Street’s TakeRecently, Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges initiated coverage of Palantir with a Hold rating and a price target of $10. Borges feels that Palantir is uniquely positioned in an ecosystem of data analytics vendors and she is positive on the company’s longer-term opportunity to succeed in the enterprise.That said, Borges assigned a Hold rating on the stock citing limited visibility into the cadence of the business in any given quarter, especially in a weaker macro backdrop.Meanwhile, last week, Bank of America Securities analyst Mariana Perez Mora initiated coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating and a price target of $13. Perez views the company as a beneficiary of “rapidly growing demand” for artificial intelligence platforms in both commercial and government end markets.Perez further adds that Palantir’s “dominant” position in the AI-powered software market should drive over 30% annual revenue growth and improving profits.Overall, the Street is sidelined on the stock with a Hold rating based on three Buys, six Holds, and three Sells. The average Palantir price target of $11.32 implies 22.64% upside potential from current levels.ConclusionPalantir’s first-quarter results failed to impress investors and Wall Street analysts. Concerns about the slowdown in Government revenue growth and the company’s ability to meet its growth targets amid challenging times are keeping the majority of Wall Street analysts covering Palantir stock on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570479349727470","authorId":"3570479349727470","name":"ALIBINHASSAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7c31b79e7bff28841c5f18dca737f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570479349727470","idStr":"3570479349727470"},"content":"$13 within 3 months.","text":"$13 within 3 months.","html":"$13 within 3 months."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059625320,"gmtCreate":1654359256960,"gmtModify":1676535436113,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLTR worth to invest","listText":"PLTR worth to invest","text":"PLTR worth to invest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059625320","repostId":"2240194962","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059077965,"gmtCreate":1654270945157,"gmtModify":1676535423460,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ","listText":"Great ","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059077965","repostId":"2240267835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240267835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654270459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240267835?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 23:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240267835","media":"金融界","summary":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>JPMorgan released its monthly list of analysts' top stock picks, which also added a new stock.</p><p>Auto auction platform ACV Auctions was named to the list as a growth stock. JPMorgan doesn't list any stocks to remove from the list, which is compiled monthly by analysts based on their best stock picks.</p><p>All stocks on the bank's \"Analyst Watch List\" have an Overweight rating and are recommended for growth or value strategies, except for one stock pick in the short term:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC). Analyst Vivek Juneja is bullish on Bank of America because the bank is very sensitive to rising interest rates.</p><p>Here are JPMorgan's top ten stock picks for June:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Newly selected ACV Auctions is down more than 50% this year, but analyst Rajat GuPTA said the company's appeal lies in its strong balance sheet and the fact that although the company's earnings outlook is less uncertain, it also follows other tech stocks. The fact that stocks all fell.</p><p>Popular among Wall Street analysts this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Also on the list. JPMorgan has a $4,000 price target on the stock, implying more than 66% upside from its closing price on Tuesday.</p><p>In this list, the medical sector basically has more stocks on the list than other sectors, except for the consumer sector, which is comparable to it. Growth stock pick Eli Lilly, the largest healthcare stock by market capitalization, has risen 13% this year, while JPMorgan analysts see 8% upside potential.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>Is another selected healthcare stock and value stock. JPMorgan has given a price target of $47, implying an upside of 188% for the stock.</p><p>In addition, other stocks on the list also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>, McDonald's, Honeywell, Alleghany Technologies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-03 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>JPMorgan released its monthly list of analysts' top stock picks, which also added a new stock.</p><p>Auto auction platform ACV Auctions was named to the list as a growth stock. JPMorgan doesn't list any stocks to remove from the list, which is compiled monthly by analysts based on their best stock picks.</p><p>All stocks on the bank's \"Analyst Watch List\" have an Overweight rating and are recommended for growth or value strategies, except for one stock pick in the short term:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC). Analyst Vivek Juneja is bullish on Bank of America because the bank is very sensitive to rising interest rates.</p><p>Here are JPMorgan's top ten stock picks for June:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Newly selected ACV Auctions is down more than 50% this year, but analyst Rajat GuPTA said the company's appeal lies in its strong balance sheet and the fact that although the company's earnings outlook is less uncertain, it also follows other tech stocks. The fact that stocks all fell.</p><p>Popular among Wall Street analysts this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Also on the list. JPMorgan has a $4,000 price target on the stock, implying more than 66% upside from its closing price on Tuesday.</p><p>In this list, the medical sector basically has more stocks on the list than other sectors, except for the consumer sector, which is comparable to it. Growth stock pick Eli Lilly, the largest healthcare stock by market capitalization, has risen 13% this year, while JPMorgan analysts see 8% upside potential.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>Is another selected healthcare stock and value stock. JPMorgan has given a price target of $47, implying an upside of 188% for the stock.</p><p>In addition, other stocks on the list also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>, McDonald's, Honeywell, Alleghany Technologies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml\">金融界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"ACVA":"ACV Auctions Inc.","JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240267835","content_text":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的亚马逊也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。Relay Therapeutics是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了Signature Bank、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和Workday。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ACVA":0.9,"JPM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}