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singsongone 1n
Focusing on US equity investment logic
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
05-08
666
@月光下的美:
$SNDK 20260508 1600.0 CALL$ 我又想買一個,便宜[得意]
$SNDK 20260508 1600.0 CALL$ 我又想買一個,便宜[得意]
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-28
$VinFast Auto(VFS)$
@Trade Feed Decoder
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-28
$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$
@Trade Feed Decoder
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-28
$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$
@Trade Feed Decoder
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-24
👍
A week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously
MANYCORE TECH于4月17日登陆港交所,发行价7.62港元,上市首日升超180%。该股近7个交易日累计升幅超102%。4月22日股价大涨25.15%,较40港元招股价升幅突破200%,创上市新高。公司今年以来累计跌幅已达57.39%,市值持续缩水引发抛压。
A week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-24
6666
If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?
即便霍尔木兹危机解除,短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台,高盛最新研报指出,如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放,且石油资产未遭受新的打击,海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日,比战前水平低57%,预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示,重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%,6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业,以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。
If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-24
666
If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?
即便霍尔木兹危机解除,短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台,高盛最新研报指出,如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放,且石油资产未遭受新的打击,海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日,比战前水平低57%,预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示,重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%,6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业,以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。
If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-24
🐂
@momoyo:
$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”,智能化解決“決策問題”,而自動駕駛是終極形態。
$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”,智能化解決“決策問題”,而自動駕駛是終極形態。
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-24
666
@momoyo:
$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”,智能化解決“決策問題”,而自動駕駛是終極形態。
$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”,智能化解決“決策問題”,而自動駕駛是終極形態。
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singsongone 1n
singsongone 1n
·
04-24
666
@momoyo:
$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”,智能化解決“決策問題”,而自動駕駛是終極形態。
$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”,智能化解決“決策問題”,而自動駕駛是終極形態。
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Decoder</a>","text":"$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":21,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558467309134952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033280229776,"gmtCreate":1777026242939,"gmtModify":1777026246048,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033280229776","repostId":"1143173819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143173819","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777025517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143173819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 18:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143173819","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"MANYCORE TECH于4月17日登陆港交所,发行价7.62港元,上市首日升超180%。该股近7个交易日累计升幅超102%。4月22日股价大涨25.15%,较40港元招股价升幅突破200%,创上市新高。公司今年以来累计跌幅已达57.39%,市值持续缩水引发抛压。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Summarize the whole week (April 20-April 24),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">Hang Seng Index</a>Down 182.26 points or 0.70%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">Hang Seng Technology Index</a>down 140.48 points or 2.79%;</p><p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li>The five best-performing stocks with a market value of more than 10 billion and an average daily turnover of more than 10 million this week are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>;</p><p></li><li>The five worst-performing stocks are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02575\">Xuanzhu Bio-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02635\">Norbican</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4835410e42943343dcbbbace472ea92a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1715\"/></p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2539767564\">1. Analysis of stocks with the top gains</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>(00068.HK) rose by 53.12% this week. After the listing of new shares, it continued to speculate, and the over-allotment option was exercised. The concept of \"space intelligence first stock\" was sought after</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the continuous heat after the listing of new shares. MANYCORE TECH landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 17th, with an issue price of HK$7.62, rising by more than 180% on the first day of listing. On April 20th, the next day of listing, the share price rose violently again, with a single-day increase of more than 101%, and the earlier issue price rose by about 391%.</p><p>As \"the first share of Hangzhou Six Little Dragons\" and \"the first share of global space intelligence\", the company's IPO public offering was subscribed for over 1,590 times, and the market heat was extremely high. On April 20th, the sponsor fully exercised the over-allotment option, raising an additional fund of approximately HK$174.4 million, further strengthening market confidence. In 2025, the company's revenue will be 820 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 82.2%. The adjusted net profit will turn losses into profits of 57.127 million yuan, and the net income retention rate of major customers will be 109%.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>(02589.HK) rose by 48.79% this week. The controlling shareholder extended the lock-up period to boost confidence, and the rapid expansion of store scale is optimistic about subsequent growth</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this sharp rise in share price is mainly driven by the dual factors of shareholders' extension of the lock-up period and institutions' optimism about store expansion. On the basis of the original lock-up period, the controlling shareholders' camp extended the lock-up period for 6 months to November 7, 2026, and other pre-IPO shareholders extended the lock-up period for 3 months to August 7, 2026, demonstrating the confidence of major shareholders in the company's prospects.</p><p>In terms of fundamentals, as of the fourth quarter of last year, the total number of stores of the company reached 11,449, up 24.8% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, 2,749 newly opened stores accounted for more than 75% of the whole year. Galaxy Securities expects that the company's store scale will continue to maintain a stable and high-speed expansion trend in 2026. The stock has increased by more than 102% in the past seven trading days.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>(02889.HK) increased by 29.36% this week, announcing in-depth cooperation with Horizon, Nvidia and leading car companies to promote the integration of cabin driving and mass production of large vehicle models</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by a number of heavy cooperations. At noon on April 22nd, the company announced a signing ceremony with Horizon to promote the landing of cabin-driving integration of vehicle intelligence. On the evening of April 23rd, the company announced that it had reached a series of in-depth cooperation with a leading OEM new energy vehicle company and NVIDIA, including developing a vehicle-side large model solution based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor accelerated computing platform, deploying AI BOX, and obtaining a fixed point for mass production of a new generation of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>After the release of the cooperation, the company's share price opened nearly 15% higher, rising by more than 23%, promoting the \"large model on the bus\" from technical verification to large-scale mass production, and making substantial progress in the landing of AI vehicle-mounted large models and the application of high-order computing power platform.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>(06636.HK) rose by 25.13% this week. As the \"first stock of visual large model\", driven by the popularity of AI track, the IPO oversubscription multiple was astonishing, and the share price hit a new high for listing</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the heat of AI vision large model track. Perspective was listed on March 30th, and the public offering in Hong Kong was oversubscribed by 4,591 times, which was called \"the first stock of visual large model\". On April 22nd, the share price rose by 25.15%, exceeding 200% from the IPO price of HK$ 40, setting a new high for listing.</p><p>The company's core competitiveness lies in the self-developed large visual language model, which covers more than 80% of common visual perception scenarios, and can realize complex cross-modal reasoning and interaction. Customers cover many core fields such as industrial manufacturing, smart energy, smart retail and smart transportation. Recently, the profit-making effect of IPO new shares is obvious, and the market is pursuing high-quality enterprises in AI segment track, which has become a catalyst for growth.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>(02632.HK) has risen by 22.99% this week. The prosperity of the automotive HUD industry is high. The company has been designated by many automakers, and the institution predicts that the compound market growth rate will be nearly 28%</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the prosperity of the automobile HUD industry. Zejing Co., Ltd. is the second largest HUD solution provider in China, with a market share of 16.2% and a cumulative sales volume of 1.9 million sets. It has been awarded 18 car manufacturer customers such as Nio, Xiaomi Automobile and Ideal and 101 model designations. On the afternoon of April 23rd, the stock price once rose by more than 17%, hitting a record high.</p><p>According to the International Research Report of SDIC Securities, it is expected that the sales of vehicle HUDs in China will increase to about 12.7 million units in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.9% from 2025 to 2029. The HUD market has a broad prospect. Institutions are optimistic about the company's industry status and growth prospects, which drives the stock price to continue to strengthen.<br/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3980243290\">II. Analysis of stocks with the top declines</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>(02661.HK) fell 67.01% this week. After the early surge, the bubble burst, and the superimposed financial report turned from profit to loss and the resignation of the chief financial officer triggered panic selling</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price drop is mainly affected by the superposition of multiple factors. On the afternoon of April 20th, the stock price collapsed and plunged, falling from HK$ 157.5 to HK$ 55.1 in 50 minutes, a drop of 60.34% in the whole day. The market value evaporated by more than HK$ 23 billion in just four months after listing. The company's share price has risen more than sixfold since it went public in December, and the market is widely believed to have accumulated a huge bubble.</p><p>The 2025 financial report shows that although revenue increased by 32.9% year-on-year to 1.256 billion yuan, continuing operations turned from a profit of 9 million yuan in 2024 to a net loss of 380 million yuan. In addition, the chief financial officer and an independent director resigned on 17 April. The market's concerns about the company's fundamentals superimposed the pressure of profit-taking after the previous surge triggered panic selling.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>(02565.HK) fell by 31.63% this week. The full circulation of H shares brought more than 100 million shares expansion pressure, and the fundamental uncertainty of unprofitable biotechnology stocks increased</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price plunge is mainly driven by the expansion pressure brought by the full circulation of H shares. On April 21st, the company announced that it had received the filing notice of full circulation of H shares from China Securities Regulatory Commission, and 102 million unlisted shares were about to be converted into H shares for circulation and listing, and the potential expansion pressure appeared. Since the beginning of this year, the company's cumulative decline has reached 57.39%, and the continuous shrinking market value has caused selling pressure.</p><p>As an unprofitable biotechnology company, the company's profit model depends on the future drug listing and sales. The current huge investment in R&D has led to continuous losses, and the fundamental uncertainty has aggravated the market's concerns about the impact of the lifting of the stock ban.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>(01384.HK) fell by 26.14% this week, recording losses for four consecutive years. The performance fundamentals did not keep up with the previous \"enterprise AI\" theme hype, and the stock price continued to pull back</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, the continuous pressure on the stock price this time is mainly affected by the performance loss and the adjustment after the previous speculation. Although the company's revenue increased significantly in 2025, it has been losing money for four consecutive years, and its share price accelerated after the annual report was released.</p><p>Previously, the stock had suffered a cliff-like plunge at a high in early March, with the highest cumulative decline of 76%. In the early stage, under the theme of \"the first share of enterprise AI\", the funds slowly raised the stock price with the help of the expectation of entry, but the performance fundamentals have not yet achieved profitability, and there has been an obvious correction after the market heat has ebbed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-24 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Summarize the whole week (April 20-April 24),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">Hang Seng Index</a>Down 182.26 points or 0.70%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">Hang Seng Technology Index</a>down 140.48 points or 2.79%;</p><p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li>The five best-performing stocks with a market value of more than 10 billion and an average daily turnover of more than 10 million this week are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>;</p><p></li><li>The five worst-performing stocks are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02575\">Xuanzhu Bio-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02635\">Norbican</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4835410e42943343dcbbbace472ea92a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1715\"/></p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2539767564\">1. Analysis of stocks with the top gains</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>(00068.HK) rose by 53.12% this week. After the listing of new shares, it continued to speculate, and the over-allotment option was exercised. The concept of \"space intelligence first stock\" was sought after</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the continuous heat after the listing of new shares. MANYCORE TECH landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 17th, with an issue price of HK$7.62, rising by more than 180% on the first day of listing. On April 20th, the next day of listing, the share price rose violently again, with a single-day increase of more than 101%, and the earlier issue price rose by about 391%.</p><p>As \"the first share of Hangzhou Six Little Dragons\" and \"the first share of global space intelligence\", the company's IPO public offering was subscribed for over 1,590 times, and the market heat was extremely high. On April 20th, the sponsor fully exercised the over-allotment option, raising an additional fund of approximately HK$174.4 million, further strengthening market confidence. In 2025, the company's revenue will be 820 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 82.2%. The adjusted net profit will turn losses into profits of 57.127 million yuan, and the net income retention rate of major customers will be 109%.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>(02589.HK) rose by 48.79% this week. The controlling shareholder extended the lock-up period to boost confidence, and the rapid expansion of store scale is optimistic about subsequent growth</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this sharp rise in share price is mainly driven by the dual factors of shareholders' extension of the lock-up period and institutions' optimism about store expansion. On the basis of the original lock-up period, the controlling shareholders' camp extended the lock-up period for 6 months to November 7, 2026, and other pre-IPO shareholders extended the lock-up period for 3 months to August 7, 2026, demonstrating the confidence of major shareholders in the company's prospects.</p><p>In terms of fundamentals, as of the fourth quarter of last year, the total number of stores of the company reached 11,449, up 24.8% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, 2,749 newly opened stores accounted for more than 75% of the whole year. Galaxy Securities expects that the company's store scale will continue to maintain a stable and high-speed expansion trend in 2026. The stock has increased by more than 102% in the past seven trading days.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>(02889.HK) increased by 29.36% this week, announcing in-depth cooperation with Horizon, Nvidia and leading car companies to promote the integration of cabin driving and mass production of large vehicle models</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by a number of heavy cooperations. At noon on April 22nd, the company announced a signing ceremony with Horizon to promote the landing of cabin-driving integration of vehicle intelligence. On the evening of April 23rd, the company announced that it had reached a series of in-depth cooperation with a leading OEM new energy vehicle company and NVIDIA, including developing a vehicle-side large model solution based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor accelerated computing platform, deploying AI BOX, and obtaining a fixed point for mass production of a new generation of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>After the release of the cooperation, the company's share price opened nearly 15% higher, rising by more than 23%, promoting the \"large model on the bus\" from technical verification to large-scale mass production, and making substantial progress in the landing of AI vehicle-mounted large models and the application of high-order computing power platform.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>(06636.HK) rose by 25.13% this week. As the \"first stock of visual large model\", driven by the popularity of AI track, the IPO oversubscription multiple was astonishing, and the share price hit a new high for listing</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the heat of AI vision large model track. Perspective was listed on March 30th, and the public offering in Hong Kong was oversubscribed by 4,591 times, which was called \"the first stock of visual large model\". On April 22nd, the share price rose by 25.15%, exceeding 200% from the IPO price of HK$ 40, setting a new high for listing.</p><p>The company's core competitiveness lies in the self-developed large visual language model, which covers more than 80% of common visual perception scenarios, and can realize complex cross-modal reasoning and interaction. Customers cover many core fields such as industrial manufacturing, smart energy, smart retail and smart transportation. Recently, the profit-making effect of IPO new shares is obvious, and the market is pursuing high-quality enterprises in AI segment track, which has become a catalyst for growth.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>(02632.HK) has risen by 22.99% this week. The prosperity of the automotive HUD industry is high. The company has been designated by many automakers, and the institution predicts that the compound market growth rate will be nearly 28%</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the prosperity of the automobile HUD industry. Zejing Co., Ltd. is the second largest HUD solution provider in China, with a market share of 16.2% and a cumulative sales volume of 1.9 million sets. It has been awarded 18 car manufacturer customers such as Nio, Xiaomi Automobile and Ideal and 101 model designations. On the afternoon of April 23rd, the stock price once rose by more than 17%, hitting a record high.</p><p>According to the International Research Report of SDIC Securities, it is expected that the sales of vehicle HUDs in China will increase to about 12.7 million units in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.9% from 2025 to 2029. The HUD market has a broad prospect. Institutions are optimistic about the company's industry status and growth prospects, which drives the stock price to continue to strengthen.<br/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3980243290\">II. Analysis of stocks with the top declines</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>(02661.HK) fell 67.01% this week. After the early surge, the bubble burst, and the superimposed financial report turned from profit to loss and the resignation of the chief financial officer triggered panic selling</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price drop is mainly affected by the superposition of multiple factors. On the afternoon of April 20th, the stock price collapsed and plunged, falling from HK$ 157.5 to HK$ 55.1 in 50 minutes, a drop of 60.34% in the whole day. The market value evaporated by more than HK$ 23 billion in just four months after listing. The company's share price has risen more than sixfold since it went public in December, and the market is widely believed to have accumulated a huge bubble.</p><p>The 2025 financial report shows that although revenue increased by 32.9% year-on-year to 1.256 billion yuan, continuing operations turned from a profit of 9 million yuan in 2024 to a net loss of 380 million yuan. In addition, the chief financial officer and an independent director resigned on 17 April. The market's concerns about the company's fundamentals superimposed the pressure of profit-taking after the previous surge triggered panic selling.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>(02565.HK) fell by 31.63% this week. The full circulation of H shares brought more than 100 million shares expansion pressure, and the fundamental uncertainty of unprofitable biotechnology stocks increased</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price plunge is mainly driven by the expansion pressure brought by the full circulation of H shares. On April 21st, the company announced that it had received the filing notice of full circulation of H shares from China Securities Regulatory Commission, and 102 million unlisted shares were about to be converted into H shares for circulation and listing, and the potential expansion pressure appeared. Since the beginning of this year, the company's cumulative decline has reached 57.39%, and the continuous shrinking market value has caused selling pressure.</p><p>As an unprofitable biotechnology company, the company's profit model depends on the future drug listing and sales. The current huge investment in R&D has led to continuous losses, and the fundamental uncertainty has aggravated the market's concerns about the impact of the lifting of the stock ban.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>(01384.HK) fell by 26.14% this week, recording losses for four consecutive years. The performance fundamentals did not keep up with the previous \"enterprise AI\" theme hype, and the stock price continued to pull back</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, the continuous pressure on the stock price this time is mainly affected by the performance loss and the adjustment after the previous speculation. Although the company's revenue increased significantly in 2025, it has been losing money for four consecutive years, and its share price accelerated after the annual report was released.</p><p>Previously, the stock had suffered a cliff-like plunge at a high in early March, with the highest cumulative decline of 76%. In the early stage, under the theme of \"the first share of enterprise AI\", the funds slowly raised the stock price with the help of the expectation of entry, but the performance fundamentals have not yet achieved profitability, and there has been an obvious correction after the market heat has ebbed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/549ed9c19f16d97443cb9ffadc6a6514","relate_stocks":{"02589":"沪上阿姨","06636":"极视角","02889":"博泰车联","02635":"诺比侃","02565":"派格生物医药-B","02575":"轩竹生物-B","02661":"轻松健康","00068":"群核科技","02632":"泽景股份","01384":"滴普科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143173819","content_text":"总结全周(4月20日-4月24日), 恒生指数 跌182.26点或0.70%, 恒生科技指数 跌140.48点或2.79%;本周市值百亿以上、日均成交千万以上表现最好五只股票是 MANYCORE TECH 、 沪上阿姨 、博泰车联 、极视角、泽景股份 ;表现最差的五只股票是 轩竹生物-B、滴普科技、派格生物医药-B、 诺比侃、轻松健康。一、涨幅居前个股解析 MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK) 本周累升53.12%,新股上市后持续热炒,超额配股权获行使叠加“空间智能第一股”概念受追捧消息面上,本次股价大升主要由新股上市后的持续热度驱动。MANYCORE TECH于4月17日登陆港交所,发行价7.62港元,上市首日升超180%。4月20日上市次日股价再度暴力拉升,单日升幅突破101%,较早前发行价累计大升约391%。作为“杭州六小龙第一股”及“全球空间智能第一股”,公司IPO公开发售部分获超1590倍认购,市场热度极高。4月20日保荐人悉数行使超额配股权,额外筹资约1.744亿港元,进一步强化市场信心。公司2025年营收8.2亿元,毛利率高达82.2%,经调整净利润扭亏为盈达5712.7万元,大客户净收入留存率109%。 沪上阿姨 (02589.HK) 本周累升48.79%,控股股东延长禁售期提振信心,门店规模高速扩张看好后续增长消息面上,本次股价大升主要受股东延长禁售期及机构看好门店扩张双重因素驱动。控股股东阵营在原禁售期基础上延长6个月至2026年11月7日,其他首发前股东延长3个月至2026年8月7日,彰显大股东对公司前景的信心。基本面方面,截至去年第四季度公司总门店数达11449家,同比升24.8%,下半年新开门店2749家占全年75%以上。银河证券预计2026年公司门店规模将持续保持稳定高速扩张态势。该股近7个交易日累计升幅超102%。 博泰车联 (02889.HK) 本周累升29.36%,宣布与地平线、英伟达及龙头车企达成深度合作,推动舱驾融合及车端大模型量产落地消息面上,本次股价大升主要受多项重磅合作驱动。4月22日午间,公司宣布与地平线举行签约仪式,推动舱驾融合整车智能体落地。4月23日晚间,公司公布与某龙头OEM新能源车企、英伟达达成一系列深度合作,包括基于NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor加速计算平台开发车端大模型解决方案,部署AI BOX,并获得新一代智能车型量产定点。合作发布后,公司股价高开近15%,大升逾23%,推动“大模型上车”从技术验证走向规模化量产,在AI车载大模型落地及高阶算力平台应用方面取得实质性进展。 极视角 (06636.HK) 本周累升25.13%,作为“视觉大模型第一股”受AI赛道热度驱动,IPO超额认购倍数惊人,股价创上市新高消息面上,本次股价大升主要受AI视觉大模型赛道热度驱动。极视角于3月30日上市,香港公开发售斩获4591倍超额认购,被称为“视觉大模型第一股”。4月22日股价大涨25.15%,较40港元招股价升幅突破200%,创上市新高。公司核心竞争力在于自主研发的视觉语言大模型,覆盖超80%常见视觉感知场景,能实现复杂的跨模态推理和交互,客户覆盖工业制造、智慧能源、智慧零售、智慧交通等多个核心领域。近期IPO新股赚钱效应明显,市场对AI细分赛道优质企业追捧,成为升幅催化剂。 泽景股份 (02632.HK) 本周累升22.99%,汽车HUD行业景气度高涨,公司获多家车厂定点,机构预测市场复合增长率近28%消息面上,本次股价大升主要受汽车HUD行业景气度驱动。泽景股份是中国第二大HUD解决方案供应商,市场份额16.2%,累计销量190万套,获得蔚来、小米汽车、理想等18家车厂客户及101个车型定点。4月23日午后股价一度拉升超17%,创历史新高。国投证券国际研报显示,预计2029年中国车载HUD销量将增至约1270万台,2025-2029年复合年均增长率27.9%,HUD市场前景广阔。机构对公司行业地位及成长前景看好,推动股价持续走强。二、跌幅居前个股解析 轻松健康 (02661.HK) 本周累跌67.01%,前期暴涨后泡沫破裂,叠加财报由盈转亏及首席财务官辞任,引发恐慌性抛售消息面上,本次股价大跌主要受多重因素叠加影响。4月20日午后股价闪崩跳水,50分钟内由157.5港元跌至55.1港元,全日跌幅60.34%,上市仅4个月市值蒸发超230亿港元。该公司自去年12月上市以来股价高位升幅逾6倍,市场普遍认为已积累巨大泡沫。2025年财报显示,虽然收入同比增32.9%至12.56亿元,但持续经营业务由2024年的盈利900万元转为净亏损3.80亿元。此外,首席财务官及一位独董在4月17日辞任。市场对公司基本面的担忧叠加前期暴涨后获利了结压力,引发恐慌性抛售。 派格生物医药-B (02565.HK) 本周累跌31.63%,H股全流通带来逾1亿股扩容压力,叠加未盈利生物科技股基本面不确定性增强消息面上,本次股价大跌主要受H股全流通带来的扩容压力驱动。4月21日公司公告收到中证监H股全流通备案通知书,1.02亿股未上市股份即将转为H股流通上市,潜在扩容压力显现。公司今年以来累计跌幅已达57.39%,市值持续缩水引发抛压。公司作为未盈利的生物科技企业,盈利模式依赖未来药品上市销售,当前研发投入巨大导致持续亏损,基本面不确定性加剧了市场对股份解禁冲击的担忧。 滴普科技 (01384.HK) 本周累跌26.14%,连续四年录得亏损,业绩基本面未跟上此前“企业AI”题材炒作,股价持续回调消息面上,本次股价持续受压主要受业绩亏损及前期炒作后调整影响。公司2025年虽然营收大幅增长,但已连续四年亏损,年报发布后股价加速下跌。此前该股曾在3月初高位出现断崖式暴跌,累计最高跌幅高达76%。前期在“企业AI第一股”题材下,资金借助入通预期缓慢拉升股价,但业绩基本面尚未实现盈利,市场热度退潮后出现明显回调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01384":2,"02589":2,"02661":2,"02575":2,"02889":2,"06636":2,"02635":2,"00068":2,"02632":2,"02565":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033724084408,"gmtCreate":1777018987680,"gmtModify":1777018990574,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033724084408","repostId":"1147543947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147543947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777018770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147543947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147543947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便霍尔木兹危机解除,短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台,高盛最新研报指出,如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放,且石油资产未遭受新的打击,海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日,比战前水平低57%,预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示,重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%,6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业,以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案:海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产,即便海峡解封,3个月后也仅能恢复70%,6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\",让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除,短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台,高盛最新研报指出,如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放,且石油资产未遭受新的打击,海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日,比战前水平低57%,预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而,对于原油投资者而言,真正的博弈点在于尾部风险:如果海峡关闭时间显著延长,最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久,甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示,重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%,6个月后恢复88%。核心制约:运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开,产能恢复并不能一蹴而就,而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束:去库存的运输能力:管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来,海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%(减少了1.3亿桶,即130 mb)。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日(正常水平为2000万桶/日),且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日,但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力:油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性:强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业,以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言,油井关闭时间越长,重启的复杂性就越高,且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人:关闭越久,恢复越慢研报明确指出,海峡实际关闭的时间越长,减产持续的时间就越久,随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面:油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品(如钻杆)采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气:物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约,高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”,主要基于以下三个逻辑:物理破坏有限:与液化天然气(LNG)资产形成鲜明对比的是,目前公开报道显示,油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力:沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示,沙特拥有充足的备用产能,且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施,因此产量可以在“几天内,而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能:历史上的供应中断事件表明,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计,在全面安全重开后,两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险:储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言,必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度,甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险:油田与国家间的巨大差异:海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险(如伊朗)方面存在显著差异。例如,数据显示,伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区(近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压),这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性:回顾历史上的减产事件,产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异,而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”:虽然这不是基准预测,但如果敌对行动恢复,石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”(永久性损伤)的风险将显著上升,这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033617838752,"gmtCreate":1777018977845,"gmtModify":1777018979833,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033617838752","repostId":"1147543947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147543947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777018770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147543947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147543947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便霍尔木兹危机解除,短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台,高盛最新研报指出,如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放,且石油资产未遭受新的打击,海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日,比战前水平低57%,预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示,重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%,6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业,以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案:海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产,即便海峡解封,3个月后也仅能恢复70%,6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\",让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除,短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台,高盛最新研报指出,如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放,且石油资产未遭受新的打击,海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日,比战前水平低57%,预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而,对于原油投资者而言,真正的博弈点在于尾部风险:如果海峡关闭时间显著延长,最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久,甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示,重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%,6个月后恢复88%。核心制约:运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开,产能恢复并不能一蹴而就,而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束:去库存的运输能力:管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来,海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%(减少了1.3亿桶,即130 mb)。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日(正常水平为2000万桶/日),且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日,但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力:油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性:强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业,以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言,油井关闭时间越长,重启的复杂性就越高,且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人:关闭越久,恢复越慢研报明确指出,海峡实际关闭的时间越长,减产持续的时间就越久,随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面:油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品(如钻杆)采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气:物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约,高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”,主要基于以下三个逻辑:物理破坏有限:与液化天然气(LNG)资产形成鲜明对比的是,目前公开报道显示,油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力:沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示,沙特拥有充足的备用产能,且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施,因此产量可以在“几天内,而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能:历史上的供应中断事件表明,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计,在全面安全重开后,两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险:储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言,必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度,甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险:油田与国家间的巨大差异:海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险(如伊朗)方面存在显著差异。例如,数据显示,伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区(近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压),这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性:回顾历史上的减产事件,产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异,而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”:虽然这不是基准预测,但如果敌对行动恢复,石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”(永久性损伤)的风险将显著上升,这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033101791608,"gmtCreate":1777018935534,"gmtModify":1777018938665,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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