Bunifa Latif

    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·13:55
      $S&P 500(.SPX)$  US equities slide on hawkish interest rate commentary · A selloff in tech stocks weighed heavily on sentiment in US markets on Wednesday, with the most-recent string of Federal Reserve speakers reinforcing the idea that interest rates will need to keep climbing to crush inflation. · Their tone was unmistakably intended to weigh against risk-friendly interpretations of Jerome Powell’s comments on Tuesday. · The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 208 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 declined 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.7%. The Nasdaq was weighed down by an 7.4% fall for Google parent Alphabet after a technology glitch on its new artificial intelligence software disappointed investors. · There may be more clarity on the Fed’s next move with the publication of consumer price index, retail and inflation data next week. A leading indicator of inflation for the last year has been 1-year inflation expectations as reported by the University of Michigan. A reading for that print will be out on Friday for February preliminary numbers. Friday’s print is forecast to show a modest uptick for 1-year expectations. · Equities in Europe gave up early gains as US markets headed lower. The benchmark Stoxx 600 finished 0.3% higher, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, hitting an intraday record high before easing back. Separately, the European Central Bank said it would cut the maximum rate it paid on government deposits to encourage investors to put their money in the market. · In Asia, the Hang Seng index closed flat, down less than 0.1%, while the Chinese CSI 300 fell 0.4%. Straits Times Index inched up 0.2%. DYODD @TigerStars 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·09:29
      $Estee Lauder(EL)$  The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufacturers, markets and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. The Company's merchandises are sold in approximately 150 countries and territories under various renowned brands, including Estee Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Lab Series, Origins, M.A.C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, Bumble and bumble, Darphin, Smashbox, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frederic Malle, GLAMGLOW, Kilian Paris, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, DECIEM and The Ordinary. It also offers fragrances, cosmetics and/or related products under the brands of Tom Ford, Dr. Andrew Weil, and AERIN. Investment Overview Post-COVID Business Acceleration (PCBA) plan. The 'PCBA' program is a two-year restructuring plan to improve efficiency and effectiveness by rebalancing resources to the growth areas. One of the key initiatives is to shift the focus to e-commerce, the fastest growing channel, which should enhance the Company’s long-term outlook. Increasing focus on Asia Pacific markets. The Asian market contributed 34% of total revenue in FY21. To tap into this fast-growing market, the company has established an innovation center in Shanghai and strengthened its partnership with popular sales channels such as Tmall and JD. The approaches are expected to strengthen its market position in Asia. A firm track record despite short-term hiccups. Estee Lauder has demonstrated steady revenue momentum and profitability over the past years. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 resurgence and snap lockdown in China could affect its sales to some extent. Considering its strong brand images and continuous market consolidation in the industry, we are still positive on its medium-term outlook. While Estee Lauder’s share price has been fluctuating significantly given the weak macro environment in 2022, we remain confident for its performance in 2023. @TigerStars  DYODD  
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·09:18
      $HSI(HSI)$  The S&P 500 Index has risen more than 13% since its mid-October 2022 low, and it’s up about 6% since 2023 started. For equity-market bulls, the rally reflects optimism that the Federal Reserve will prevail in its efforts to tame inflation and cut interest rates as it guides the economy toward a “soft landing” that supports corporate profitability. First, the path of inflation and pace of monetary tightening are still far from certain. More pointedly, the stock market rally may have more to do with rapidly easing financial conditions such as lower oil prices and higher consumer spending. Generally, when investor sentiment is improving and market liquidity is increasing alongside loosening conditions, asset prices tend to rise. The opposite dynamic was at play for much of 2022 as the Fed rapidly tightened monetary policy. However, several factors recently have caused an aggressive loosening of conditions, back to levels seen in spring 2022. The problem: Those factors appear temporary and subject to major reversals in 2023. We think particular caution is warranted around four recent trends: A significant decline in oil prices. The West Texas Intermediate crude oil benchmark is down 35% since its highs reached in June 2022. While this has helped ease financial conditions, we think the decline may be an overshoot. Global demand could pick up materially with an economic recovery in China and other emerging markets, as well as in Europe. A drop in longer-term Treasury yields. The 10-year benchmark yield has dropped from 4.2% last fall to around 3.5% today, due to lower expectations for both inflation and the degree to which the Fed tightens policy to tame it. Lower yields typically mean lower borrowing costs across an economy, making it easier for businesses and consumers to spend. Yet, today’s market-based forecasts may underestimate where rates could end up, especially since current loose financial conditions—not to mention any possible stalling in inflation’s decline—could actually prompt the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. The U.S. Treasury running down its general account. As has been widely reported, the U.S. government is running up against the statutory debt ceiling, which prohibits further borrowing or bond issuance by the Treasury without congressional approval. The Treasury has been limiting how much additional debt it takes on and spending down its general account reserves. But once a debt ceiling resolution is passed, new bond issuance could drain up to $750 billion in liquidity from bond markets. Consumers spending down their excess savings. We estimate about $1.6 trillion of the $2.5 trillion in COVID-related stimulus savings has been spent. By November 2022, the consumer savings rate had reached a 17-year low of 2.4%. This year, as fears of a recession and job security mount, we could see U.S. consumers begin to normalize their spending behavior and return the savings rate to the long-term average of 6.5%. This could drain another $750 billion or so from the U.S. financial system. Given these trends, and as tempting as it might be, investors should not interpret the January rebound in stocks as the beginning of a new bull market. Economic fundamentals have not troughed, and earnings estimates have not recalibrated to reflect the reality of a slowdown. The four trends noted above have combined to create a rare setup for easy financial conditions, and we have reason to believe they will reverse, causing a mid-year liquidity crunch. Rather than chasing a rally built singularly on financial conditions, investors should focus on income generation as they wait for this period of high uncertainty to play out. Look to short- and intermediate-term Treasuries, municipal bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds, as well as dividend-growth stocks that offer above-average yields and decent earnings achievability even in an economic downturn. It looks like another down trend is in the making especially with bets that the Fed may go with a terminal rate of 6 percent. @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger  DYODD 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-08 12:54
      $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$  US stocks rebound as Powell’s remarks considered not that hawkish · US stocks closed near session highs after a volatile bout of trading on Tuesday. · The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 265 points, or 0.78%. The S&P 500 rose 1.29%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outpaced the other two indices, gaining 1.9%. · Earlier in the day, Jerome Powell said during a question-and-answer session with the Economic Club of Washington that the Fed may have to hike more than what's priced in if the labour market remains unexpectedly strong, though he predicted prices will decline significantly this year. · Investors had forecast that the hot labour market data would inspire hawkish rhetoric from the Fed boss but his messaging was consistent with what he said last week, when the Fed increased rates by 25 basis points to a band of 4.5% to 4.75%. The takeaway is that Powell had a chance to signal a shift to a more aggressive posture, but he didn’t. · Consistent with that, short-dated bond yields dipped moderately. The two-year Treasury yield, a barometer for expectations about the federal funds rate. · In separate comments Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates to 5.4% at the top of its target range given the strength in the US jobs market. · Elsewhere in markets, European stock markets paused from two days of selling. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index closed up by 0.2%. The FTSE 100 was a standout performer, up 0.4% after strong earnings from oil major BP. · Stocks in Asia are primed for a mixed open following the late rally in US shares. Chinese shares ended the Tuesday session broadly higher as investor sentiment was buoyed by supportive measures for the property market. · Some AI-related stocks rallied after Baidu confirmed that it will launch an artificial intelligence chat bot in March. Oil jumped as investors grew more confident in China's demand outlook. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed 0.4% higher. · The buoyancy was absent in the local market as the Straits Times Index fell 0.2%, as investor sentiment took a hit from the usual suspects: possible interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, inflation and worsening US-China ties. @TigerStars  DYODD 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-08 12:26
      $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$  These are the tech stocks I would hold as AIgains traction. I will not hold Meme stock due to the lack of fundamentals. The excitement to make a large amount of money in a short period of time can be enormously tempting – therefore, investors may sometimes resort to meme stocks, succumbing to that temptation. Before you make like an ape and go bananas, here's what you should know. Meme stocks have become quite popular in the last few years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, some traders started talking up stocks on social media sites such as Reddit. The excitement potentially urged many other people to buy and/or sell based on those talking up a particular meme investment. If you are considering investing in a meme stock, it can be wise to: Do your due diligence to ensure it is indeed a good pick that aligns with your investment goals Have a strategy, whether you’re buying and quickly flipping the stock or hanging on Although you may see the potential for a quick gain, you may not want to invest more than you can afford to lose, because you can lose a lot and fast What is a meme stock? A meme stock is essentially a stock that’s gone viral. Just as a funny photo or video can get passed around the internet for all to see, so can a meme stock. The word "meme" refers to ideas or images that spread exponentially on the internet. The big difference is that receiving a ridiculous picture from a friend is free, while buying a stock position based on a recommendation from an anonymous person online can be costly. Meme stocks tend to be the subject of discussion on social media platforms such as Reddit or Twitter, which can lead to cult-like loyalty from retail investors and a massive jump in trading volume and price movements. The discussion is rarely focused on the fundamental attributes of the company. In some cases, as can be seen from the history of meme stocks, it can even be a punitive attempt to “squeeze” professional investors who have sold the stock short to cover their positions.  There may be a few reasons why investors have jumped onto the meme stock craze. The first is that many hope to make a large amount of money in a short period of time. The other reason why people buy in can simply be: It’s fun to join the crowd. Similar to jumping on a bandwagon when a sports team makes it to the finals ⁠— many people enjoy taking part in the excitement. In the case of meme stocks there may be no better bandwagon than joining the social media masses. Ultimately, there may be nothing wrong with having a little fun if you have the extra money to spend. Using retirement or money allocated for reasons other than investing to play the meme, however, could be more dangerous.  The biggest risk with a meme stock is losing all of your money. Without solid fundamentals to back up the price increase ⁠— such as increasing revenues or profit growth ⁠— sustaining excitement for a company can be difficult after the initial wave of exuberance subsides. Stock prices of meme stocks tend to plummet as soon as sentiment turns. Because price gains are driven by what the masses think and not by fundamentals or core value meme stocks have shown to be highly volatile. After their initial run-up in price, some return to the levels they traded at before they went viral. Others continue to fluctuate in a range between their peak and previous levels. Retail investors who bought meme stocks on their way up may have been left with shares that now trade below the price they were purchased at. Before buying into a meme stock, it can be important to review the company’s fundamentals and make a case for investing. Just like you wouldn't buy a company simply because a colleague told you they have a hot stock tip, you may not want to follow the crowd into a business that could go bust. Look at annual and quarterly reports to see whether the company is growing. Are revenues rising? Is the company increasing earnings year after year? Does it have a product lineup that makes sense to you? Research other fundamentals to see how the meme stock may add value to your portfolio. Analyst reports often list price targets ⁠— take a look at those to see what pricing level the professionals recommend. If you want to jump in, it may be a good idea consider if the price is sustainable. @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger  DYODD  
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-08 09:34
      $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$  This is my top stock in my portfolio due to its strong performance. Activision Blizzard press release (NASDAQ:ATVI): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 beats by $0.36. Net bookings of $3.57B (+43.4% Y/Y) beats by $390M. For the quarter ended December 31, 2022, overall Activision Blizzard Monthly Active Users (MAUs) were 389 million. For the quarter ended December 31, 2022, Activision Blizzard’s net bookings were $3.57 billion, as compared with $2.49 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021. In-game net bookings were $1.82 billion, as compared with $1.24 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021. Activision Blizzard is a leading global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services. The company develops and distributes content and services on consoles, PCs, and mobile devices. It generates revenue from full-game and in-game sales, as well as by licensing software to third-party companies that distribute Activision Blizzard products. Its gaming properties include the World of Warcraft, Candy Crush, Call of Duty League, Hearthstone Masters, Overwatch League, Diablo, etc. Investment Overview Leading game developer with popular gaming franchises globally. Activision Blizzard has industry- leading titles and owns famous intellectual properties like Call of Duty, Candy Crush, and World of Warcraft, which accounted for c.80% of revenue in 2021. These top franchises should enable the company to drive user acquisition and recurrent consumer spending in various countries, leading to stable revenue growth in the longer term. Increasing live service to drive further in-game monetisation. Activision Blizzard is well positioned to capitalise on its game properties via live service offerings, which allow players to access and invest in new content and increase engagement. Currently, live service (or in-game purchase) revenue makes up 38% of total revenue, mainly contributed by Candy Crush. The continuous focus on in-game content and live service development will generate higher revenue with a higher margin. Focus on mobile gaming to catch the growth trend. Activision Blizzard's mobile games only accounted for 7% of total revenue in 2021, and the company has increased its development efforts into expanding game franchises to mobile platforms, like the release of the mobile version of Call of Duty, Crash Bandicoot in 2021, and Diablo Immortal in 2022. We expect mobile games to become a significant revenue growth engine in the coming years, driven by the robust mobile game pipeline and increasing addressable audiences. Risks (1) Decrease in gross billings of existing key titles due to weakness in consumer spending amid the inflation environment and (2) the performance of new games falling short of expectations. Potential share price catalysts include (1) stronger performance of its mobile division, like Diablo Immortal, and (2) better-than-expected earnings increment from live services. As one of the leading gaming provider in theword, I think it is going to buck the trend and perform well in this year due to its strong gaming portfolio and fan base. I remain confident in this stock even if the Microsoft dealfalls through. @TigerStars  DYODD 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-08 09:17
      $Adobe(ADBE)$ $HSI(HSI)$  Adobe Inc is one of the largest and most diversified software companies in the world. The company offers a line of products and services used by professionals, communicators, businesses, and consumers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimising, engaging, and transacting with content and experiences across various digital media formats. Business segments include Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The company operates in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa (“EMEA”), and Asia-Pacific (APAC). The company offers many of the products via a Software-as-a-Service (“SaaS”) model or a managed services model through term subscriptions and pay-per-use. Investment Overview To benefit from continuous digitalisation. Adobe has an early mover advantage with its SaaS transformation in 2009, achieving 80% SaaS revenue since 2017. The SaaS transformation triggered robust revenue growth along with margin improvement. In 2021, ADOBE achieved 38% operating margin, which is among the highest of its peers. The company offers high growth opportunities riding on the trend that businesses will continue to adopt digital solutions. Equipped to capture the expanding addressable market. Adobe’s total addressable market is projected to be US$147bn and US$205bn for 2023 and 2024 respectively according to the management. The company's steady flow of popular innovations, and acquisitions help it to be in a strong position to gain market share in an expanding market. This is key to the company's long-term growth trajectory. Wide range of product offerings with high customer stickiness. Adobe offers a wide range of products with high value-add to both individual and corporate customers. Their Creative Cloud provides the tools necessary to create content in any format, Document Cloud contains its signature product Acrobat that helps customers to create fully digital workflows, and Experience Cloud offers one-stop shop for businesses to sort their marketing, advertising and analytics needs. Customer stickiness is also high for Adobe, which leads to more opportunities to upsell. Global economic uncertainty. An economic slowdown may lead to a reduction in enterprise spending on digital products. Intensifying competition. Adobe participates in a highly competitive environment globally with a wide range of competitors in various industry segments. Intensifying competition could create downward pressure on product pricing and margins. This stock has decent fundamentals and I am confident in its long term growth. There may be a downside as in the impending recession May dampen the stock slightly. But overall I am still confident that Adobe will weather through it and emerge stronger. @TigerStars  DYODD 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-07 13:30
      $S&P 500(.SPX)$  US stocks fall on interest rate worries · The US stock market fell on Monday as investors remain fixated on the Federal Reserve’s next move. · The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 36 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1%. · Concerns that borrowing costs may still have further to rise were stirred on Monday after Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, said the January jobs report could lead to a higher peak in interest rates. · Bostic’s warning on Monday afternoon prompted a sell-off in US government bonds to pick up steam. The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was up 0.19 percentage points to 4.49%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose 0.12 percentage point to 3.65%. · In Europe, the region wide Stoxx 600 fell 0.8%, as did Germany’s Dax, with sentiment also eroded by weak December eurozone retail sales figures. London’s FTSE 100, which last week hit a record high, fell 0.8%. · Most Asian equities declined on Monday as a rally in January for Chinese equities fizzled out and heightened US-China tensions deflated sentiment. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2%, while China’s CSI 300 shed 1.3%. · Singapore shares begin week with meagre gains, with the Straits Times Index largely flat, inching up just 0.1 per cent to end at 3,385.93. @TigerStars  DYODD 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-07 08:54
      $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$  Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is one of the world’s largest oil & gas companies and operates in the United States as well as most other countries of the world. Worldwide, ExxonMobil markets fuels, lubricants and chemicals under four brands: Esso, Exxon, Mobil and ExxonMobil. Its principal business involves exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, trading, manufacture and marketing of refined petroleum products and petrochemicals. In 2021, total oil and natural gas liquids production amounted to around 1.6mmbpd, one of the largest private producers. Including gas and other liquids, total production was around 3.7mmboepd. Investment Overview Strong earnings potential and emission-reduction goals in place. Robust projected EBITDA and EPS growth rates in the near term, combined with focus on low carbon emissions places XOM in a competitive position in the energy industry. We expect growth in multiple segments such as upstream, downstream and low carbon solutions, as customer needs are satisfied with a variety of energy transition scenarios. The company achieved its emission reduction goals of 2025 ahead of schedule in 2021 and further plans were set to be achieved by 2030 to reduce absolute emissions by 20%. XOM is also investing c. US$15 bn over next years focusing on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and development of other cleaner energy alternatives such as hydrogen and biofuels. Low-cost strategy a key competitive edge. XOM's low-cost organizational structure reduced costs by c. US$2bn in 2021, with total savings of c. US$5bn over the last two years. We expect this effect to spill over the next few years, bringing more savings to the company, contributing to increased earnings. The company also invested in the expansion of its recoverable resource in Guyana, increased Permian production and divested c. US$3bn of non-core assets to improve efficiency. Further, XOM reduced its net debt to pre-pandemic levels, showcasing more room to fund future investments. Stable growth and high shareholder returns are XOM's key strengths. The company has a robust historical free cash flow growth and high forecast earnings growth compared to its industry peers. A high modified payout ratio and high return on equity provide stability in shareholder wealth. Further, XOM's debt position as mentioned before is healthy with a low gearing and a high interest coverage, which is a big positive amid rising interest rate environment. ESG metrics are possibly the one area where XOM management may need to focus more to deliver further re-rating. Global presence brings some risks. XOM is exposed to significant macroeconomic risks as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil, natural gas and other refinery products. Further, the company is impacted by changes in economic conditions of various regions given its global presence as, recessionary environment could reduce demand for its products. Also, XOM is exposed to significant legal and regulatory risk as energy industry is highly regulated in different jurisdictions across the world. Post the Ukraine conflict, Exxon had to exit its Russian project Sakhalin-1, worth more than US$4bn, without any compensation, leading to write-downs. Share price is supported by high modified pay-out ratio compared and steady dividend yield of ~4%. Oil prices are expected to stay resilient at elevated levels in 2023 despite recession fears, continuing to support share prices for upstream players. Potential share buybacks could be additional catalyst in near term. At current levels, I am still cautious about entering the stock as it is rather elevated for an impending recession. China's reopening is unlikely to provide a big boost to consumption and the global slowdown will likely dampen demand for oil. There are a few downside risks at the moment.  @TigerStars  DYODD 
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    • Bunifa LatifBunifa Latif
      ·02-07 08:51
      $Take-Two(TTWO)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is a leading developer and publisher of interactive entertainment for consumers around the globe. The company’s products are designed for console gaming systems, PCs as well as mobile devices. They are delivered through physical retail, digital download, online platforms, and cloud streaming services. The company focuses on publishing a selected number of titles based on internally owned and developed intellectual properties, including NBA 2K21,Grand Theft Auto, Borderlands series etc. Investment Overview Legacy titles and eSports games continue to gain momentum. TTWO has strong game franchises including NBA 2K21, Grand Theft Auto as well as Red Dead Online. These games continued to gain traction and recorded robust growth, taking up c.60% of revenue in 2021. We expect the company will deliver above-peer average EBITDA growth of 38% p.a. in the next two years, supported by strong legacy titles and upcoming e-sport games. Strong multi-year pipeline offers substantial long-term upside. The company has strong track record of launching high-quality titles and is expected to have approximately 20 titles per year for the next several years, through a combination of new and existing franchises like NBA 2K23. The robust pipeline will drive sustainable revenue growth and earnings. Acquisition strategy to expand addressable market. TTWO has acquired several development studios in 2021, including Playdots, Ruffian Games, HB Studios, to further expand its user base and addressable market. The acquisition of new studios will increase its franchises and benefit overseas expansion, boosting revenue growth. Slower than expected monetisation ramp-up of new games. After relaxation of Covid measures, people are spending more time in outdoors which could affect the time spent on games and led to slower revenue growth. TTWO might incur more marketing expenses and user acquisition costs to promote new games, which might have an impact on earnings. Potential share price catalyst includes (1) stronger than expected performance of newly launched games; (2) earnings upside from acquisition synergies; (3) better than expected international expansion. Its recent results are not that fantastic which is a sign of inherent weakness. The stock is likely to be adversely affected by the economic headwinds and the impending recession. I will be Cautious in entering the stock at the moment as there are likely downsides toit.  @TigerStars  DYODD 
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