Profile - To The Moon

Jothi

Posts · 6Posts · 6
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- JothiJothi
  ·06-15
  Well done Congratulations
  140 Comment
  2
  Share
  Report
- JothiJothi
  ·05-30
  Share your opinion about this news…
  AMD: Gaining Momentum In The Slipstream
  SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices delivered weak overall performance in the first quarter earnings results, with lackluster forward guidance.The elevated valuation of AMD is sharpening the question regard
  AMD: Gaining Momentum In The Slipstream
  111 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JothiJothi
  ·04-13
  Yes it is happening to me
  57 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JothiJothi
  ·2023-10-09
  C z zzz
  3 Stocks Jim Cramer Loves That You Should Sell Immediately!
  Do the opposite of what the TV stock guru recommends and make these three companies Jim Cramer stocks to sell.
  3 Stocks Jim Cramer Loves That You Should Sell Immediately!
  183 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JothiJothi
  ·2023-07-11
  Xj . H.. .. c
  Apple Analyst Raises Price Target To $200 Despite US Sales Not Tracking Great: Here's Why
  ZINGER KEY POINTSApple's U.S. hardware revenue is estimated to decline 19% sequentially in FQ3. steeper drop than historical norms: KeyBancThe firm sticks with its bullish stance due to the excitement
  Apple Analyst Raises Price Target To $200 Despite US Sales Not Tracking Great: Here's Why
  118 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- JothiJothi
  ·2023-03-04
  Nice Article
  Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%
  SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc
  Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%
  105 Comment
  5
  Share
  Report
No followers yet

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4101455956356490","uuid":"4101455956356490","gmtCreate":1638356104349,"gmtModify":1690902470108,"name":"Jothi","pinyin":"jothi","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":9,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.09.27","exceedPercentage":"80.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.30","exceedPercentage":"80.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.10.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":2,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":317119871320376,"gmtCreate":1718460976134,"gmtModify":1718460982473,"author":{"id":"4101455956356490","authorId":"4101455956356490","name":"Jothi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101455956356490","authorIdStr":"4101455956356490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done Congratulations","listText":"Well done Congratulations","text":"Well done Congratulations","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317119871320376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311437301260296,"gmtCreate":1717060344365,"gmtModify":1717060347703,"author":{"id":"4101455956356490","authorId":"4101455956356490","name":"Jothi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101455956356490","authorIdStr":"4101455956356490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311437301260296","repostId":"1179320041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179320041","pubTimestamp":1717046131,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179320041?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-30 13:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Gaining Momentum In The Slipstream","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179320041","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices delivered weak overall performance in the first quarter earnings results, with lackluster forward guidance.The elevated valuation of AMD is sharpening the question regard","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3333436971\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices delivered weak overall performance in the first quarter earnings results, with lackluster forward guidance.</p></li><li><p>The elevated valuation of AMD is sharpening the question regarding its growth prospects.</p></li><li><p>I believe that the company has solid fundamentals to gain potential in the AI accelerator and APU-related markets.</p></li><li><p>In my view, AMD stock should be surrounded by bullish sentiment, with the potential to deliver up to a 50% gain as enterprises begin commercializing the AI technology potential.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c5ebcc44def102b51f242e0a9d23f89\" alt=\"AMD headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" title=\"AMD headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>AMD headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA</span></p><p><strong>JHVEPhoto</strong></p><p></p><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) struggled to put some nice growth numbers in the recent Q1 financial results, which, along with the unimpressive guidance, leaves investors without much confidence to Buy the stock now. Moreover, with the current balance of power, where Nvidia and Intel are sharing the leading positions in the GPU and CPU-related markets, the reasonable question is: where are AMD&#39;s growth prospects, which could infuse confidence in the market participants again? This article will try to elaborate on this query, going through the market potential in AI accelerators, gaming GPUs, and commercial APUs and the resulting valuation rating.</p><h2 id=\"id_1192429635\">Struggling for growth</h2><p>Amid the rapid development and the trend towards scaling of artificial intelligence through an increasing number of economic verticals, AMD appears to be one of the main players to reap the benefits of it. The launch of the ChatGPT initiated a new billion-dollar TAM for the company; however, looking at the chart with price performance below, AMD remains further and further in the slipstream of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e375c2027272ceb3f1ab5803cac2fccc\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"473\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Following the first quarter financial results, it doesn&#39;t seem that investors remain that optimistic as they enter 2024. AMD delivered $5.5 billion in revenue for the quarter, which turns out to be 11% lower on a sequential basis. The data center segment grew 2% on a quarterly basis (+80% YoY due to the low base effect), but not enough to offset the weak performance in other segments. Add to that the somewhat lackluster overall guidance, despite the fact that executives now expect 2024 data center revenue to exceed $4 billion from the $3.5 billion January outlook.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5f6f3db265eba51dcf35144996fab9fe\" alt=\"company presentation\" title=\"company presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\"/><span>company presentation</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Q1 2024 financial results (company presentation)</strong></p><p></p><p>Clearly, Nvidia dominates the data center AI accelerator area due to the high demand for Hopper infrastructure and its technology leadership with the upcoming Blackwell GPUs. In gaming and visualization, NVDA also leads the market for discrete AIB GPUs, while in the desktop and notebook CPU markets, Intel (INTC) is taking the lion&#39;s share.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/71d0262be52549c71784948d1a93b4e4\" alt=\"prepared by author\" title=\"prepared by author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\"/><span>prepared by author</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Forward P/E valuation (prepared by author)</strong></p><p></p><p>Looking at the valuation, the picture doesn&#39;t look more optimistic. AMD is currently trading at a 47.5x forward P/E ratio, which is around 24% above its 3Y median of 38.2x. We can notice that the ratio broke the Stdev +1 line (one standard deviation above the median) at the beginning of the year, then fell toward the median close to the Q1 earning date, and is now gaining back.</p><p>With this in mind, it appears that AMD is not a good bargain unless the company returns to its growth path. Where could these growth prospects come from? This is the main purpose of the article, so let&#39;s start with the data center market.</p><p>Nvidia holds more than 90% market share in data center GPUs, according to different reports. And although the AI technology is still in the early stages of development, we have already reached the point where the inferencing part accounts for about 40% of the data center market, as evidenced by Nvidia&#39;s recent earnings call. We already witnessed a significant amount of investment in AI chips, and to sustain these numbers, it&#39;s obvious that all these investments should start bringing profit to the bottom line for companies making these outlays. The focus is now shifting towards making money from the AI (or inferencing), rather than in training own models. Although I wrote in my latest article on NVDA that:</p><blockquote><p>model training is a continuous process that should be run consistently due to the rising sophistication, upgrades, and bug elimination. So, the more data is generated through the inference, the more data should be processed by the model, and the more powerful GPU solutions are required.</p></blockquote><p>The point is that going forward, I believe that inferencing will grow at a faster rate, which is the area where Nvidia could be challenged. In particular, MI300X has an advantage over Hopper in memory-intensive tasks, delivering leadership-inferencing performance according to AMD&#39;s benchmarks. Specs comparison reveals that MI300X contains 192GB of HBM3 memory and 5.3TB/s of memory bandwidth vs. 141GB of GPU memory with 4.8TB/s bandwidth in the upcoming H200. Moreover, the Instinct offering has room for improvement, as AMD has yet to incorporate the latest HBM3e memory chips used in the soon-to-launch H200.</p><p>Now, let&#39;s discuss some numbers. The estimated TAM for AI chips was $45 billion, which could reach $180 billion by 2027, according to BofA, implying a 38% CAGR. And if we suppose that inferencing is shaping 40% of the market currently, I believe that it could double in the following 3 years, as the rapid proliferation of generative AI will bring the technology to other verticals beyond cloud service providers. And given the rumors that MI300X costs at least half of the Hopper price tag, the former could have a prominent TCO advantage, which is especially relevant in the conditions where enterprises are optimizing for costs. As a result, I believe that the landscape is shaping favorably for AMD to gain up to 10% market share of the data center GPU market by 2027 from about 3% at present. With this in mind, the company&#39;s data center segment could grow at a faster pace than the implied 38% CAGR for the market.</p><p>Moving to the gaming segment, the balance of power is quite the same. Still, AMD gained ground on Nvidia to shape 19% of the market for AIB. Taking the consumer point of view, NVDA clearly has an advantage in the top-tier segment due to the unmatched ray tracing performance of the RTX 4080/4090 series. In the budget segment, Nvidia has an upper hand over AMD due to its superior DLSS upscaling technology. Even budget gamers can now opt for RTX 4050/4060 and enjoy the latest games on ultra-settings. And ultimately, we are transiting to the mid-range, which is the most important in my view. Traditionally, gamers are targeting this range, as the GPUs here could provide a high-quality experience with 4K resolution. Benchmarking the Radeon RX 7900 XT card, which costs $699, we can say that it delivers on average higher rasterization performance at 4K ultra settings compared to the Nvidia newest RTX 4070 Ti Super, which is $100 cheaper. You may say that with ray tracing, the RTX card will deliver higher performance, and you will be right. However, with the RT on, you can content only with below 60 FPS on average. Now, you may go ahead and claim that frame generation [FG] could secure that level of frames. However, FG technology could add interpolated in-between frames, but it doesn&#39;t increase fluidity because the gamers can&#39;t see those additional frames. As a result, you&#39;re getting the downside of the technology, which compromises the gaming experience with increased input lag. And if we start researching the gaming community, we can find predominantly negative feedback from using the FG technology, describing the character in the game being &#34;drunk&#34;. Undoubtedly, the FG is useful for the budget segment, but in the mid-range GPUs, I believe that it&#39;s not the case, which gives AMD growth prospects and opportunities to challenge Nvidia in this critical for gamers GPU price range.</p><p>Finally, we are arriving at the CPU market. Following the expended refresh cycle, triggered by COVID, 2024 is deemed to be the first chapter of the new AI-capable PC deployment. The AI desktop and laptop replacement cycle, especially in the enterprise segment, along with Windows 11 adoption, could drive overall PC shipment recovery in this year. And given that the current installed base is quite outdated, this represents a significant growth opportunity for AMD&#39;s new Ryzen Pro 8000 and 8040 series processors. Currently, the market is in the seed stage, but AMD&#39;s new APUs are estimated to run up to 54% faster in CPU and 30% in graphic performance on average compared to Intel&#39;s Core Ultra vPro lineup. The market expects 50 million AI-capable PCs to be shipped in 2024, and at this point, I see this as a solid opportunity for AMD&#39;s growth.</p><h2 id=\"id_2871976532\">Risk factors</h2><p>Among the main risks is a possible further tightening of monetary policy, which could constrain the corporate budget for generative AI investments. The recent growth of the AMD stock price has been fueled to a large extent by ambitious forecasts in the data center segment revenue. In the event that the market for the AI graphics accelerator fails to meet growth expectations, investors may significantly adjust their positions.</p><h2 id=\"id_522224102\">Investment conclusion</h2><p>We can notice that the consensus expects a 33% EPS growth this year, which is largely in line with the ramping of Instinct GPUs and EPYC processor offerings. With this line-up, AMD is delivering leadership in inferencing and compute performance with substantial cost-per-token advantages.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/beaaa5b554fea04630ce90061f352982\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Consensus EPS estimates (Seeking Alpha)</strong></p><p></p><p>Going forward, the analysts anticipate a 58% EPS expansion in the forward fiscal year. With such growth numbers, I&#39;m not worried about the above P/E chart, which depicts that the valuation of AMD is hanging around in the elevated area. The forecast is reasonable from my point of view, as the AI-capable hardware refresh cycle could be in full swing next year. Add to that, the management&#39;s confidence in MI300X demand and the recovery of the embedded segment, and I believe that that company could easily achieve such growth rates.</p><p>As a result, the target price for AMD, implied by the $5.55 EPS forecast, stands at $263 per share, representing up to 50% upside potential from current market levels. Hence, I would rate the AMD stock with a Buy rating, neglecting the unimpressive Q2 guidance, as the inferencing business could offer a larger growth opportunity than training in the next few years, especially when the enterprises start commercializing the generative AI potential. This is the point where AMD could challenge Nvidia, namely in terms of less demanding, memory-focused computing resources. In addition, the APU market for AI-enabled computers is developing, offering AMD full potential to strengthen its growth potential.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Gaining Momentum In The Slipstream</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Gaining Momentum In The Slipstream\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-30 13:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696360-amd-stock-gaining-momentum-in-the-slipstream><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices delivered weak overall performance in the first quarter earnings results, with lackluster forward guidance.The elevated valuation of AMD is sharpening the question ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696360-amd-stock-gaining-momentum-in-the-slipstream\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696360-amd-stock-gaining-momentum-in-the-slipstream","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1179320041","content_text":"SummaryAdvanced Micro Devices delivered weak overall performance in the first quarter earnings results, with lackluster forward guidance.The elevated valuation of AMD is sharpening the question regarding its growth prospects.I believe that the company has solid fundamentals to gain potential in the AI accelerator and APU-related markets.In my view, AMD stock should be surrounded by bullish sentiment, with the potential to deliver up to a 50% gain as enterprises begin commercializing the AI technology potential.AMD headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USAJHVEPhotoAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) struggled to put some nice growth numbers in the recent Q1 financial results, which, along with the unimpressive guidance, leaves investors without much confidence to Buy the stock now. Moreover, with the current balance of power, where Nvidia and Intel are sharing the leading positions in the GPU and CPU-related markets, the reasonable question is: where are AMD's growth prospects, which could infuse confidence in the market participants again? This article will try to elaborate on this query, going through the market potential in AI accelerators, gaming GPUs, and commercial APUs and the resulting valuation rating.Struggling for growthAmid the rapid development and the trend towards scaling of artificial intelligence through an increasing number of economic verticals, AMD appears to be one of the main players to reap the benefits of it. The launch of the ChatGPT initiated a new billion-dollar TAM for the company; however, looking at the chart with price performance below, AMD remains further and further in the slipstream of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA).ChartData by YChartsFollowing the first quarter financial results, it doesn't seem that investors remain that optimistic as they enter 2024. AMD delivered $5.5 billion in revenue for the quarter, which turns out to be 11% lower on a sequential basis. The data center segment grew 2% on a quarterly basis (+80% YoY due to the low base effect), but not enough to offset the weak performance in other segments. Add to that the somewhat lackluster overall guidance, despite the fact that executives now expect 2024 data center revenue to exceed $4 billion from the $3.5 billion January outlook.company presentationQ1 2024 financial results (company presentation)Clearly, Nvidia dominates the data center AI accelerator area due to the high demand for Hopper infrastructure and its technology leadership with the upcoming Blackwell GPUs. In gaming and visualization, NVDA also leads the market for discrete AIB GPUs, while in the desktop and notebook CPU markets, Intel (INTC) is taking the lion's share.prepared by authorForward P/E valuation (prepared by author)Looking at the valuation, the picture doesn't look more optimistic. AMD is currently trading at a 47.5x forward P/E ratio, which is around 24% above its 3Y median of 38.2x. We can notice that the ratio broke the Stdev +1 line (one standard deviation above the median) at the beginning of the year, then fell toward the median close to the Q1 earning date, and is now gaining back.With this in mind, it appears that AMD is not a good bargain unless the company returns to its growth path. Where could these growth prospects come from? This is the main purpose of the article, so let's start with the data center market.Nvidia holds more than 90% market share in data center GPUs, according to different reports. And although the AI technology is still in the early stages of development, we have already reached the point where the inferencing part accounts for about 40% of the data center market, as evidenced by Nvidia's recent earnings call. We already witnessed a significant amount of investment in AI chips, and to sustain these numbers, it's obvious that all these investments should start bringing profit to the bottom line for companies making these outlays. The focus is now shifting towards making money from the AI (or inferencing), rather than in training own models. Although I wrote in my latest article on NVDA that:model training is a continuous process that should be run consistently due to the rising sophistication, upgrades, and bug elimination. So, the more data is generated through the inference, the more data should be processed by the model, and the more powerful GPU solutions are required.The point is that going forward, I believe that inferencing will grow at a faster rate, which is the area where Nvidia could be challenged. In particular, MI300X has an advantage over Hopper in memory-intensive tasks, delivering leadership-inferencing performance according to AMD's benchmarks. Specs comparison reveals that MI300X contains 192GB of HBM3 memory and 5.3TB/s of memory bandwidth vs. 141GB of GPU memory with 4.8TB/s bandwidth in the upcoming H200. Moreover, the Instinct offering has room for improvement, as AMD has yet to incorporate the latest HBM3e memory chips used in the soon-to-launch H200.Now, let's discuss some numbers. The estimated TAM for AI chips was $45 billion, which could reach $180 billion by 2027, according to BofA, implying a 38% CAGR. And if we suppose that inferencing is shaping 40% of the market currently, I believe that it could double in the following 3 years, as the rapid proliferation of generative AI will bring the technology to other verticals beyond cloud service providers. And given the rumors that MI300X costs at least half of the Hopper price tag, the former could have a prominent TCO advantage, which is especially relevant in the conditions where enterprises are optimizing for costs. As a result, I believe that the landscape is shaping favorably for AMD to gain up to 10% market share of the data center GPU market by 2027 from about 3% at present. With this in mind, the company's data center segment could grow at a faster pace than the implied 38% CAGR for the market.Moving to the gaming segment, the balance of power is quite the same. Still, AMD gained ground on Nvidia to shape 19% of the market for AIB. Taking the consumer point of view, NVDA clearly has an advantage in the top-tier segment due to the unmatched ray tracing performance of the RTX 4080/4090 series. In the budget segment, Nvidia has an upper hand over AMD due to its superior DLSS upscaling technology. Even budget gamers can now opt for RTX 4050/4060 and enjoy the latest games on ultra-settings. And ultimately, we are transiting to the mid-range, which is the most important in my view. Traditionally, gamers are targeting this range, as the GPUs here could provide a high-quality experience with 4K resolution. Benchmarking the Radeon RX 7900 XT card, which costs $699, we can say that it delivers on average higher rasterization performance at 4K ultra settings compared to the Nvidia newest RTX 4070 Ti Super, which is $100 cheaper. You may say that with ray tracing, the RTX card will deliver higher performance, and you will be right. However, with the RT on, you can content only with below 60 FPS on average. Now, you may go ahead and claim that frame generation [FG] could secure that level of frames. However, FG technology could add interpolated in-between frames, but it doesn't increase fluidity because the gamers can't see those additional frames. As a result, you're getting the downside of the technology, which compromises the gaming experience with increased input lag. And if we start researching the gaming community, we can find predominantly negative feedback from using the FG technology, describing the character in the game being \"drunk\". Undoubtedly, the FG is useful for the budget segment, but in the mid-range GPUs, I believe that it's not the case, which gives AMD growth prospects and opportunities to challenge Nvidia in this critical for gamers GPU price range.Finally, we are arriving at the CPU market. Following the expended refresh cycle, triggered by COVID, 2024 is deemed to be the first chapter of the new AI-capable PC deployment. The AI desktop and laptop replacement cycle, especially in the enterprise segment, along with Windows 11 adoption, could drive overall PC shipment recovery in this year. And given that the current installed base is quite outdated, this represents a significant growth opportunity for AMD's new Ryzen Pro 8000 and 8040 series processors. Currently, the market is in the seed stage, but AMD's new APUs are estimated to run up to 54% faster in CPU and 30% in graphic performance on average compared to Intel's Core Ultra vPro lineup. The market expects 50 million AI-capable PCs to be shipped in 2024, and at this point, I see this as a solid opportunity for AMD's growth.Risk factorsAmong the main risks is a possible further tightening of monetary policy, which could constrain the corporate budget for generative AI investments. The recent growth of the AMD stock price has been fueled to a large extent by ambitious forecasts in the data center segment revenue. In the event that the market for the AI graphics accelerator fails to meet growth expectations, investors may significantly adjust their positions.Investment conclusionWe can notice that the consensus expects a 33% EPS growth this year, which is largely in line with the ramping of Instinct GPUs and EPYC processor offerings. With this line-up, AMD is delivering leadership in inferencing and compute performance with substantial cost-per-token advantages.Seeking AlphaConsensus EPS estimates (Seeking Alpha)Going forward, the analysts anticipate a 58% EPS expansion in the forward fiscal year. With such growth numbers, I'm not worried about the above P/E chart, which depicts that the valuation of AMD is hanging around in the elevated area. The forecast is reasonable from my point of view, as the AI-capable hardware refresh cycle could be in full swing next year. Add to that, the management's confidence in MI300X demand and the recovery of the embedded segment, and I believe that that company could easily achieve such growth rates.As a result, the target price for AMD, implied by the $5.55 EPS forecast, stands at $263 per share, representing up to 50% upside potential from current market levels. Hence, I would rate the AMD stock with a Buy rating, neglecting the unimpressive Q2 guidance, as the inferencing business could offer a larger growth opportunity than training in the next few years, especially when the enterprises start commercializing the generative AI potential. This is the point where AMD could challenge Nvidia, namely in terms of less demanding, memory-focused computing resources. In addition, the APU market for AI-enabled computers is developing, offering AMD full potential to strengthen its growth potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":294780458922240,"gmtCreate":1712986313175,"gmtModify":1712987835346,"author":{"id":"4101455956356490","authorId":"4101455956356490","name":"Jothi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101455956356490","authorIdStr":"4101455956356490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes it is happening to me","listText":"Yes it is happening to me","text":"Yes it is happening to me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/294780458922240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":228575347650712,"gmtCreate":1696832249136,"gmtModify":1696833388240,"author":{"id":"4101455956356490","authorId":"4101455956356490","name":"Jothi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101455956356490","authorIdStr":"4101455956356490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"C z zzz","listText":"C z zzz","text":"C z zzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/228575347650712","repostId":"2373106653","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2373106653","pubTimestamp":1696809700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2373106653?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-10-09 08:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks Jim Cramer Loves That You Should Sell Immediately!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2373106653","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Do the opposite of what the TV stock guru recommends and make these three companies Jim Cramer stocks to sell.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CNBC TV personality Jim Cramer makes a lot of calls on stocks, but these three that he loves should be put on your chopping block.</p></li><li><p><strong>On Holdings (<u>ONON</u>):</strong> This trendy sneaker maker with celebrity endorsers is premium-priced for all the headwinds it faces.</p></li><li><p><strong>SoFi Technologies (<u>SOFI</u>):</strong> This consumer lending stock is having a hard time in a rising interest rate environment.</p></li><li><p><strong>Topgolf Callaway Brands (<u>MODG</u>):</strong> The golfing pro has a mountain of debt it needs to mine through.</p></li></ul><p>CNBC personality Jim Cramer is one of the most-watched stock gurus on TV. He hosts the network’s “Mad Money” and “Squawk on the Street” shows. He also was a co-founder of <em><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>.com</em>.</p><p>That platform makes him a lightning rod for critiques about his stock picks. An exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracked his stock picks closed down just 5 months after it launched. It couldn’t attract enough capital. But one that does the exact opposite of what Cramer picks still thrives. The <strong>Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF</strong> (NYSE: <strong><u>SJIM</u></strong>) is down slightly at a -2.8% return since its inception.</p><p>There’s no doubt Cramer is smart. He worked for <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> (NYSE: <strong><u>GS</u></strong>) and founded his own hedge fund before breaking into TV. But investors should never blindly follow his advice, or the advice of any other stock guru. Not even Warren Buffett. Their stock picks are simply a good launch pad for further due diligence on your part. </p><p>The “Mad Money” host recently expressed his love for the following three companies. Here’s why these are Jim Cramer stocks to sell if you own them.</p><h2 id=\"id_1627068501\">On Holdings (ONON)</h2><p>Footwear and apparel specialist <strong>On Holdings</strong> (NYSE: <strong><u>ONON</u></strong>) is not only a Cramer favorite, but quickly became a market darling as well. Shares of the Swiss maker of trendy shoes with celebrity endorsers are up 41% in 2023. They had been much higher as the stock is down 35% from its recent highs.</p><p>Cramer told “Squawk on the Street” viewers in August the footwear stock was growing faster than <strong>Nike</strong> (NYSE: <strong><u>NKE</u></strong>). He dismissed concerns over currency exchange rates On Holdings faces. “If you look through the Swiss franc, you realize they’re just smoking hot,” he said. Shares have fallen over 12% since. Cramer did partially walk back his enthusiastic embrace a week later, saying the stock is not as good as he previously thought. </p><p>On Holdings just released a three-year outlook update. It intends to double its sales by 2026 to $3.87 billion and do so at adjusted EBITDA margins of 18%. Gross margins will be north of 60%. With sales up 44% over the first two quarters of 2023 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.1%, up from 10.8% a year ago, it appears doable. Yet the targets seem overly aggressive. And despite the stock pullback, it is still expensive.</p><h2 id=\"id_926019404\">SoFi Technologies (SOFI)</h2><p><strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong><u>SOFI</u></strong>) also got Cramer’s stamp of approval. Two weeks ago “Mad Money” viewers heard him say “I’m a buyer, not a seller” of SOFI stock. The stock is down 4% since.</p><p>Much of SoFi’s business is built around refinancing student loans. That gives it a big boost now that borrowers must start repaying those loans. The problem is soaring interest rates since the repayment moratorium went into effect will undermine demand for refinancing. Alternatively, it will cause SoFi to take a hit to margins if it tries to offer competitive rates.</p><p>Longer term, college enrollment is in freefall, tumbling 8% between 2019 and 2022. That’s even accounting for a return to in-persons classes following the pandemic. SoFi’s student loan originations were down 1% in the second quarter.</p><p>Home loan origination volume also fell, plummeting 27% for the period. This is while personal loans soared 51%. It would suggest the consumer is becoming more hard pressed and in need of money. And with personal loans being uncollateralized, unlike home and auto loans, the risk of default is greater. SoFi’s provision for credit losses were soaring during the quarter, up 22% year over year.</p><p>SoFi stock is 41% higher year to date, but it’s also richly valued. There may be some tailwinds that could see the stock bounce, but the risk is growing and selling now protects your downside.</p><h2 id=\"id_1060011217\">Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)</h2><p>The summer doldrums hit golfing outfit <strong>Topgolf Callaway Brands</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong><u>MODG</u></strong>) following Cramer’s endorsement in July. The stock tumbled 30% afterwards, though it had been falling prior to his recommendation.</p><p>During the “Lightning Round” of “Mad Money,” Cramer expressed surprise at Topgolf’s weakness. “Stock’s been disappointing,” he told viewers, “and I think it’s rather strange because the business itself is very good. I think you should buy the stock.”</p><p>Golf is always a popular form of entertainment, and Callaway’s merger with Topgolf in 2021 sought to capitalize on that when the market was weakest due to the pandemic. Yet it also caused Callaway’s debt to explode from $443 million before the Covid-19 outbreak and where it stands today at over $1.5 billion. It also has obligations for operating leases totaling $1.4 billion, but only has $192 million in cash.</p><p>While Topgolf Calloway’s valuation looks reasonable at 16 times earnings estimates and a fraction of its sales and book value, there are no catalysts for growth. It may be some time before this golf stock lands on the green again.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks Jim Cramer Loves That You Should Sell Immediately!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks Jim Cramer Loves That You Should Sell Immediately!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-09 08:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/10/3-stocks-jim-cramer-loves-that-you-should-sell-immediately/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CNBC TV personality Jim Cramer makes a lot of calls on stocks, but these three that he loves should be put on your chopping block.On Holdings (ONON): This trendy sneaker maker with celebrity endorsers...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/10/3-stocks-jim-cramer-loves-that-you-should-sell-immediately/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc.","MODG":"Topgolf Callaway Brands Ord Shs","ONON":"On Holding AG"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/10/3-stocks-jim-cramer-loves-that-you-should-sell-immediately/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2373106653","content_text":"CNBC TV personality Jim Cramer makes a lot of calls on stocks, but these three that he loves should be put on your chopping block.On Holdings (ONON): This trendy sneaker maker with celebrity endorsers is premium-priced for all the headwinds it faces.SoFi Technologies (SOFI): This consumer lending stock is having a hard time in a rising interest rate environment.Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG): The golfing pro has a mountain of debt it needs to mine through.CNBC personality Jim Cramer is one of the most-watched stock gurus on TV. He hosts the network’s “Mad Money” and “Squawk on the Street” shows. He also was a co-founder of TheStreet.com.That platform makes him a lightning rod for critiques about his stock picks. An exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracked his stock picks closed down just 5 months after it launched. It couldn’t attract enough capital. But one that does the exact opposite of what Cramer picks still thrives. The Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (NYSE: SJIM) is down slightly at a -2.8% return since its inception.There’s no doubt Cramer is smart. He worked for Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and founded his own hedge fund before breaking into TV. But investors should never blindly follow his advice, or the advice of any other stock guru. Not even Warren Buffett. Their stock picks are simply a good launch pad for further due diligence on your part. The “Mad Money” host recently expressed his love for the following three companies. Here’s why these are Jim Cramer stocks to sell if you own them.On Holdings (ONON)Footwear and apparel specialist On Holdings (NYSE: ONON) is not only a Cramer favorite, but quickly became a market darling as well. Shares of the Swiss maker of trendy shoes with celebrity endorsers are up 41% in 2023. They had been much higher as the stock is down 35% from its recent highs.Cramer told “Squawk on the Street” viewers in August the footwear stock was growing faster than Nike (NYSE: NKE). He dismissed concerns over currency exchange rates On Holdings faces. “If you look through the Swiss franc, you realize they’re just smoking hot,” he said. Shares have fallen over 12% since. Cramer did partially walk back his enthusiastic embrace a week later, saying the stock is not as good as he previously thought. On Holdings just released a three-year outlook update. It intends to double its sales by 2026 to $3.87 billion and do so at adjusted EBITDA margins of 18%. Gross margins will be north of 60%. With sales up 44% over the first two quarters of 2023 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.1%, up from 10.8% a year ago, it appears doable. Yet the targets seem overly aggressive. And despite the stock pullback, it is still expensive.SoFi Technologies (SOFI)SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) also got Cramer’s stamp of approval. Two weeks ago “Mad Money” viewers heard him say “I’m a buyer, not a seller” of SOFI stock. The stock is down 4% since.Much of SoFi’s business is built around refinancing student loans. That gives it a big boost now that borrowers must start repaying those loans. The problem is soaring interest rates since the repayment moratorium went into effect will undermine demand for refinancing. Alternatively, it will cause SoFi to take a hit to margins if it tries to offer competitive rates.Longer term, college enrollment is in freefall, tumbling 8% between 2019 and 2022. That’s even accounting for a return to in-persons classes following the pandemic. SoFi’s student loan originations were down 1% in the second quarter.Home loan origination volume also fell, plummeting 27% for the period. This is while personal loans soared 51%. It would suggest the consumer is becoming more hard pressed and in need of money. And with personal loans being uncollateralized, unlike home and auto loans, the risk of default is greater. SoFi’s provision for credit losses were soaring during the quarter, up 22% year over year.SoFi stock is 41% higher year to date, but it’s also richly valued. There may be some tailwinds that could see the stock bounce, but the risk is growing and selling now protects your downside.Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)The summer doldrums hit golfing outfit Topgolf Callaway Brands (NASDAQ: MODG) following Cramer’s endorsement in July. The stock tumbled 30% afterwards, though it had been falling prior to his recommendation.During the “Lightning Round” of “Mad Money,” Cramer expressed surprise at Topgolf’s weakness. “Stock’s been disappointing,” he told viewers, “and I think it’s rather strange because the business itself is very good. I think you should buy the stock.”Golf is always a popular form of entertainment, and Callaway’s merger with Topgolf in 2021 sought to capitalize on that when the market was weakest due to the pandemic. Yet it also caused Callaway’s debt to explode from $443 million before the Covid-19 outbreak and where it stands today at over $1.5 billion. It also has obligations for operating leases totaling $1.4 billion, but only has $192 million in cash.While Topgolf Calloway’s valuation looks reasonable at 16 times earnings estimates and a fraction of its sales and book value, there are no catalysts for growth. It may be some time before this golf stock lands on the green again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196792811897048,"gmtCreate":1689080847017,"gmtModify":1689082600898,"author":{"id":"4101455956356490","authorId":"4101455956356490","name":"Jothi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101455956356490","authorIdStr":"4101455956356490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xj . H.. ..&nbsp; c","listText":"Xj . H.. ..&nbsp; c","text":"Xj . H.. .. c","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196792811897048","repostId":"1188302552","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188302552","pubTimestamp":1689078654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188302552?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-11 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Analyst Raises Price Target To $200 Despite US Sales Not Tracking Great: Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188302552","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSApple's U.S. hardware revenue is estimated to decline 19% sequentially in FQ3. steeper drop than historical norms: KeyBancThe firm sticks with its bullish stance due to the excitement","content":"<html><head></head><body><h4 id=\"id_530986582\" style=\"text-align: start;\">ZINGER KEY POINTS</h4><ul><li><p><strong>Apple&#39;s U.S. hardware revenue is estimated to decline 19% sequentially in FQ3. steeper drop than historical norms: KeyBanc</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>The firm sticks with its bullish stance due to the excitement around new products and investors reaching for safety.</strong></p></li></ul><p>Tech giant <strong>Apple, Inc.</strong>‘s fiscal third quarter may have seen soft hardware revenue, an analyst at <strong>KeyBanc Capital Markets </strong>said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>The Apple Analyst:</strong> <strong>Brandon Nispel </strong>maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target for the stock from $180 to $200.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>The Apple Thesis: </strong>KeyBanc&#39;s hardware revenue estimate for Apple is below the consensus estimate, analyst Nispel said in a note. The muted expectation, according to the analyst, is due to lukewarm consumer spending data for the June quarter and the softness in Apple&#39;s indirect channel, namely sales through U.S. carriers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">KeyBanc First Look Data compiled based on the firm&#39;s proprietary analysis of big-ticket spending data from more than 1.8 million unique KeyBanc credit and debit card customers in the U.S. showed that indexed spending remained below the historical average, the firm said.</p><p>Apple will likely report a U.S. hardware revenue decline of 19% quarter-over-quarter in the June quarter, worse than the three-year historical average of a 9% drop, the analyst noted. Therefore, the analyst sees a downside to the consensus estimate.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">KeyBanc also noted that domestic iPhone sales were pressured by slowing U.S. carrier activity and lower upgrade rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“With U.S. sales not tracking great, upside Internationally needs to drive results,” it said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The bull case for the stock is due to the excitement around new products and investors reaching for safety, which supports an elevated multiple, the firm added.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Price Action</strong>: Apple closed Monday&#39;s session down 1.09% at $188.61.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Analyst Raises Price Target To $200 Despite US Sales Not Tracking Great: Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Analyst Raises Price Target To $200 Despite US Sales Not Tracking Great: Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-11 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/07/33178244/apple-analyst-raises-price-target-to-200-despite-us-sales-not-tracking-great-heres-><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSApple's U.S. hardware revenue is estimated to decline 19% sequentially in FQ3. steeper drop than historical norms: KeyBancThe firm sticks with its bullish stance due to the excitement...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/07/33178244/apple-analyst-raises-price-target-to-200-despite-us-sales-not-tracking-great-heres-\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/07/33178244/apple-analyst-raises-price-target-to-200-despite-us-sales-not-tracking-great-heres-","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188302552","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSApple's U.S. hardware revenue is estimated to decline 19% sequentially in FQ3. steeper drop than historical norms: KeyBancThe firm sticks with its bullish stance due to the excitement around new products and investors reaching for safety.Tech giant Apple, Inc.‘s fiscal third quarter may have seen soft hardware revenue, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets said.The Apple Analyst: Brandon Nispel maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target for the stock from $180 to $200.The Apple Thesis: KeyBanc's hardware revenue estimate for Apple is below the consensus estimate, analyst Nispel said in a note. The muted expectation, according to the analyst, is due to lukewarm consumer spending data for the June quarter and the softness in Apple's indirect channel, namely sales through U.S. carriers.KeyBanc First Look Data compiled based on the firm's proprietary analysis of big-ticket spending data from more than 1.8 million unique KeyBanc credit and debit card customers in the U.S. showed that indexed spending remained below the historical average, the firm said.Apple will likely report a U.S. hardware revenue decline of 19% quarter-over-quarter in the June quarter, worse than the three-year historical average of a 9% drop, the analyst noted. Therefore, the analyst sees a downside to the consensus estimate.KeyBanc also noted that domestic iPhone sales were pressured by slowing U.S. carrier activity and lower upgrade rates.“With U.S. sales not tracking great, upside Internationally needs to drive results,” it said.The bull case for the stock is due to the excitement around new products and investors reaching for safety, which supports an elevated multiple, the firm added.Price Action: Apple closed Monday's session down 1.09% at $188.61.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940235344,"gmtCreate":1677933474289,"gmtModify":1677940164401,"author":{"id":"4101455956356490","authorId":"4101455956356490","name":"Jothi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101455956356490","authorIdStr":"4101455956356490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice Article&nbsp;","listText":"Nice Article&nbsp;","text":"Nice Article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940235344","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We&#39;ve seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.</li><li>Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&amp;P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.</li><li>However, I&#39;m highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.</li><li>Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.</li><li>Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my &#34;all-in&#34; bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my &#34;Stocks Are Heading Higher&#34; article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.</p><p>Moreover, we&#39;re seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.</p><p>SPX - At Another Inflection Point<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e4c150b976cb211ccb6f5f67170f37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com)</p><p>The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there&#39;s a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.</p><p><b>There&#39;s a Chance</b></p><p>Although the probability is relatively low, SPX&#39;s support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it&#39;s premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.</p><p>Why Inflation Remains a Big Problem</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10057ace35cbf6a1921aa9cae02f6d0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There&#39;s been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed&#39;s target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January&#39;s CPI came in hotter than expected.</p><p><b>The Recent CPI Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7c22ef79685f6f2789bc39233660b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI (January)(Investing.com )</p><p>The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month&#39;s reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it&#39;s not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.</p><p><b>PCE Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100421b03f101dd14bf7039f266d679c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PCE inflation(Investing.com )</p><p>The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month&#39;s 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it&#39;s the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.</p><p><b>Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?</b></p><p>Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as &#34;transitory&#34; as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.</p><p><b>The Worsening Economy</b></p><p>Have you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they&#39;re not likely to go away anytime soon. Let&#39;s put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that&#39;s come out recently.</p><p>Just from the start of February, we&#39;ve seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.</p><p><b>Is the Labor Market an Exception?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada4e0ca1e2a60decab85dee6c4f940a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jobs data(Investing.com)</p><p>The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We&#39;ve recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Not Cheap Anymore</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen many companies&#39; earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we&#39;ve seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.</p><p><b>Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0cae380760ab0af564889c1e421d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E(multpl.com)</p><p>We&#39;ve seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted &#34;CAPE&#34;) ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.</p><p>Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom &#34;all-in&#34; buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}