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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-10
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-10
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U.S. stock open low moved lower, Nasdaq's decline expanded to 3%
5月9日，美股低开低走，纳指跌幅扩大至3%。特斯拉跌超6%，亚马逊跌近3%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌幅扩大至7%，哔哩哔哩、京东、理想汽车、小鹏汽车跌近10%；知乎跌12%，水滴跌超21%。
U.S. stock open low moved lower, Nasdaq's decline expanded to 3%
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-10
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-09
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-09
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Bank of America: Taking history as a mirror, where is the "end" of this round of U.S. stock correction?
摘要：通过研究过去140年19次熊市的历史，美银分析师推测，目前的熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标普500指数将达到3000点，纳斯达克综合指数将达到10000点。投资者周五关注美国国债收益率和非农就
Bank of America: Taking history as a mirror, where is the "end" of this round of U.S. stock correction?
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-08
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snow mak
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2022-05-08
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-06
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Pre-market comments | After the U.S. stock market plummeted, how will the market behave the next day?
》》》盘前 | 非农数据高于预期！三大期指短线拉升截止到今天盘前，关于昨天市场究竟为什么大跌，依旧没有一个很好的解释。从指数期权的交易来看，也比较正常。不过目前市场关注的重点，已经不再是昨天市场大跌的
Pre-market comments | After the U.S. stock market plummeted, how will the market behave the next day?
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snow mak
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2022-05-06
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snow mak
snow mak
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2022-05-05
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Night Reading | Without an investment system, stock trading is lucky
有了投资体系，你只能赚你的投资体系内能够赚到的钱；但没有投资体系，你可能就永远无法确定自己的钱在哪儿。实际上，有没有投资体系的支持，不是机构与散户的区别，而是专业与业余的区别。而投资体系的设计中最重要的一条就是控制你的交易体系中必然会被放大的风险。
Night Reading | Without an investment system, stock trading is lucky
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stock open low moved lower, Nasdaq's decline expanded to 3%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-09 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 9, the open low of U.S. stocks fell, and the Nasdaq's decline expanded to 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p>The decline of the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index expanded to 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 10%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell 12%, and Shuidi fell more than 21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670cccd22275ddc30779ac54a2774c78\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196129150","content_text":"5月9日，美股低开低走，纳指跌幅扩大至3%。特斯拉跌超6%，亚马逊跌近3%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌幅扩大至7%，哔哩哔哩、京东、理想汽车、小鹏汽车跌近10%；知乎跌12%，水滴跌超21%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065949391,"gmtCreate":1652141033013,"gmtModify":1676535037552,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065949391","repostId":"2233858072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062239996,"gmtCreate":1652061540615,"gmtModify":1676535022358,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062239996","repostId":"1103965281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062230483,"gmtCreate":1652061526242,"gmtModify":1676535022344,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062230483","repostId":"1117911802","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117911802","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1651884417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117911802?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-07 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Taking history as a mirror, where is the \"end\" of this round of U.S. stock correction?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117911802","media":"Wind万得","summary":"摘要：通过研究过去140年19次熊市的历史，美银分析师推测，目前的熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标普500指数将达到3000点，纳斯达克综合指数将达到10000点。投资者周五关注美国国债收益率和非农就","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: By studying the history of 19 bear markets in the past 140 years, Bank of America analysts speculate that the current bear market will end on October 19th this year, with the S&P 500 reaching 3,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching 10,000 points.</b>Investors focused on U.S. Treasury Bond yields and non-farm payrolls reports on Friday, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down this week.</p><p>Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.3% on Friday, after the blue-chip index plunged more than 1,000 points the day before, marking its worst day since 2020. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.4%. All three major stock indexes fell this week.</p><p>Concerns about Federal Reserve policy, coupled with a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, hit technology and growth stocks particularly hard as investors reassessed previously elevated sectors.</p><p>The major indexes fell between 7.02 and 9.38 percentage points from Wednesday's highs to Thursday's lows, the biggest move since the first half of 2020, Dow Jones Market Data showed. Nearly halfway through 2022, the S&P 500 index has fallen more than 10% year-to-date, but it has not officially entered a bear market.</p><p>According to a widely accepted definition, a bear market occurs when a market or security falls 20% or more from a recent high. The S&P 500 is down 13.5% from its January high of 4,796. For now, this simply means that U.S. stocks have entered a correction range, usually defined as a 10% drop from recent highs. Meanwhile, the battered Nasdaq is now down 23% from its November 2021 high.</p><p>Still, the debate rages on whether the S&P 500 is entering a bear market, with some strategists and observers saying the S&P 500 is pulling back like it did during a bear market. Wall Street banks such as Morgan Stanley have been saying the U.S. stock market is close to entering a bear market.</p><p>But if the S&P 500 officially enters a bear market, Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, have calculated how long the \"pain\" will last. They looked at the history of 19 bear markets over the past 140 years and found an average price decline of 37.3% with an average duration of about 289 days.</p><p>While \"past performance is not indicative of future performance,\" Hartnett and his team believe that the current bear market will end on October 19 this year, with the S&P 500 reaching 3,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching 10,000 points.</p><p>The \"good news\" is that many stocks have reached this point. 49% of the Nasdaq constituents are down more than 50% from their 52-week highs, 58% are down more than 37.3%, and 77% of them are in a bear market. \"Bear markets tend to come faster than bull markets,\" these strategists say.</p><p>The bank's latest weekly data, released Friday, showed another $3.4 billion in outflows from equities and $9.1 billion from bonds. Many of these moves were designed to \"fend off risk\" at recent Fed meetings, they noted.</p><p>While the Fed tightened policy again as scheduled this week, concerns about whether its stance will become more hawkish, and concerns that the Fed may not be able to tighten policy without triggering a recession, sent stocks sharply on Thursday. Weaker, with more sell order underway on Friday.</p><p>Strategists offer one final fact that may also give investors some comfort. Hartnett and team noted that for every $100 invested in stocks over the past year or so, only $3 has been redeemed. In addition, since January 2021, the $1.1 trillion in inflows into stocks, and the average entry point of the S&P 500 index is 4,274, means that these investors' funds are only \"slightly below expectations.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Taking history as a mirror, where is the \"end\" of this round of U.S. stock correction?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Taking history as a mirror, where is the \"end\" of this round of U.S. stock correction?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-07 08:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: By studying the history of 19 bear markets in the past 140 years, Bank of America analysts speculate that the current bear market will end on October 19th this year, with the S&P 500 reaching 3,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching 10,000 points.</b>Investors focused on U.S. Treasury Bond yields and non-farm payrolls reports on Friday, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down this week.</p><p>Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.3% on Friday, after the blue-chip index plunged more than 1,000 points the day before, marking its worst day since 2020. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.4%. All three major stock indexes fell this week.</p><p>Concerns about Federal Reserve policy, coupled with a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, hit technology and growth stocks particularly hard as investors reassessed previously elevated sectors.</p><p>The major indexes fell between 7.02 and 9.38 percentage points from Wednesday's highs to Thursday's lows, the biggest move since the first half of 2020, Dow Jones Market Data showed. Nearly halfway through 2022, the S&P 500 index has fallen more than 10% year-to-date, but it has not officially entered a bear market.</p><p>According to a widely accepted definition, a bear market occurs when a market or security falls 20% or more from a recent high. The S&P 500 is down 13.5% from its January high of 4,796. For now, this simply means that U.S. stocks have entered a correction range, usually defined as a 10% drop from recent highs. Meanwhile, the battered Nasdaq is now down 23% from its November 2021 high.</p><p>Still, the debate rages on whether the S&P 500 is entering a bear market, with some strategists and observers saying the S&P 500 is pulling back like it did during a bear market. Wall Street banks such as Morgan Stanley have been saying the U.S. stock market is close to entering a bear market.</p><p>But if the S&P 500 officially enters a bear market, Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, have calculated how long the \"pain\" will last. They looked at the history of 19 bear markets over the past 140 years and found an average price decline of 37.3% with an average duration of about 289 days.</p><p>While \"past performance is not indicative of future performance,\" Hartnett and his team believe that the current bear market will end on October 19 this year, with the S&P 500 reaching 3,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching 10,000 points.</p><p>The \"good news\" is that many stocks have reached this point. 49% of the Nasdaq constituents are down more than 50% from their 52-week highs, 58% are down more than 37.3%, and 77% of them are in a bear market. \"Bear markets tend to come faster than bull markets,\" these strategists say.</p><p>The bank's latest weekly data, released Friday, showed another $3.4 billion in outflows from equities and $9.1 billion from bonds. Many of these moves were designed to \"fend off risk\" at recent Fed meetings, they noted.</p><p>While the Fed tightened policy again as scheduled this week, concerns about whether its stance will become more hawkish, and concerns that the Fed may not be able to tighten policy without triggering a recession, sent stocks sharply on Thursday. Weaker, with more sell order underway on Friday.</p><p>Strategists offer one final fact that may also give investors some comfort. Hartnett and team noted that for every $100 invested in stocks over the past year or so, only $3 has been redeemed. In addition, since January 2021, the $1.1 trillion in inflows into stocks, and the average entry point of the S&P 500 index is 4,274, means that these investors' funds are only \"slightly below expectations.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117911802","content_text":"摘要：通过研究过去140年19次熊市的历史，美银分析师推测，目前的熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标普500指数将达到3000点，纳斯达克综合指数将达到10000点。投资者周五关注美国国债收益率和非农就业报告，美股三大指数本周收跌。具体来看，道琼斯工业指数周五收盘下跌0.3%，前一天该蓝筹股指数暴跌超过1000点，创下2020年以来最糟糕的一天。标普500指数下跌0.5%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌1.4%。三大股指本周均下跌。对美联储政策的担忧，加上美国国债收益率的迅速上升，对科技股和成长股的打击尤其严重，因为投资者重新评估了此前曾经高涨的板块。道琼斯市场数据(Dow Jones Market Data)显示，主要股指从周三的高点跌至周四的低点，跌幅在7.02至9.38个百分点之间，这是自2020年上半年以来的最大波动。2022年已接近过半，标普500指数年初至今跌逾10%，但还没有正式进入熊市。根据一个被广泛接受的定义，熊市发生在市场或证券从近期高点下跌20%或以上的时候。而标普500指数较1月份4,796点的高点下跌了13.5%，就目前而言，这仅仅意味着美股进入了回调区间，通常定义为较近期高点下跌10%。与此同时，遭受重创的纳斯达克指数目前较2021年11月的高点下跌了23%。尽管如此，关于标普500指数是否进入熊市的争论仍在激烈进行，一些策略师和观察人士表示，标普500指数正在像熊市期间一样回调。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)等华尔街银行一直表示，美股市场正接近进入熊市。但如果标普500指数正式进入熊市，以迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)为首的美国银行(Bank of America)策略师已经计算出这种“痛苦”会持续多久。他们研究了过去140年19次熊市的历史，发现平均价格下跌37.3%，平均持续时间约289天。虽然“过去的表现并不代表未来的表现”，但哈特尼特和他的团队认为，目前的熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标普500指数将达到3000点，纳斯达克综合指数将达到10000点。“好消息”是，许多股票已经达到了这一点。纳斯达克49%的成份股较52周高点下跌超过50%，58%的成份股跌幅超过37.3%，其中77%的成份股处于熊市。这些策略师表示：“熊市往往比牛市来得快。”该银行周五发布的最新周数据显示，又有34亿美元从股票中流出，91亿美元从债券中流出。他们指出，在最近的美联储会议上，其中许多举动都是为了“抵御风险”。虽然美联储本周再次如期收紧了政策，但对其立场是否会更趋鹰派的担忧，以及对美联储可能无法在不引发经济衰退的情况下收紧政策的担忧，使得股票在周四大幅走弱，周五有更多的卖盘正在进行。策略师们提供了最后一个事实，可能也会给投资者一些安慰。哈特尼特和团队指出，在过去一年多的时间里，每100美元投资于股票，只有3美元被赎回。此外，自2021年1月以来，流入股票的1.1万亿美元，标普500指数的平均进入点为4274点，这意味着这些投资者的资金仅“略低于预期”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062397628,"gmtCreate":1651999411464,"gmtModify":1676535011815,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062397628","repostId":"2233315662","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062397376,"gmtCreate":1651999389795,"gmtModify":1676535011823,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062397376","repostId":"2233315662","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066953890,"gmtCreate":1651842823410,"gmtModify":1676534981940,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066953890","repostId":"1126782908","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126782908","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651841671,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126782908?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-06 20:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market comments | After the U.S. stock market plummeted, how will the market behave the next day?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126782908","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"》》》盘前 | 非农数据高于预期！三大期指短线拉升截止到今天盘前，关于昨天市场究竟为什么大跌，依旧没有一个很好的解释。从指数期权的交易来看，也比较正常。不过目前市场关注的重点，已经不再是昨天市场大跌的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1113585245\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | Non-farm payrolls data is higher than expected! The three major futures indexes pulled up in the short term</b></a><b></b></p><p>As of today's pre-market, there is still no good explanation for why the market plummeted yesterday. Judging from the trading of index options, it is also relatively normal. However, the current focus of the market is no longer the reason for yesterday's market crash, but how the US stock market will behave today after the crash.</p><p>This question is very difficult to answer, and no one can give accurate logic. The only breakthrough point is to look at the market performance after the U.S. stock market plummeted from a probabilistic perspective. The table below shows the market performance the next day after the Nasdaq fell 3% since 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc972a81628e057e9980cd2b19aa5dc8\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e2fdd3ada8e94dc1ebad24ec60bb5b\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>1. Since January 1, 2020, the Nasdaq has fallen by more than 3% a total of 26 times, and 8 times occurred when the new crown hit in March 2020. It has only appeared twice in 2021, and it performed the best.</p><p>2. The possibility of a sharp drop for two consecutive days is very small. It has only occurred once in the past two years, on March 11 and 12, 2020.</p><p>3. Judging from the performance of 25 second-day trading, the median performance is up 1%, and the average performance is also up 1%.</p><p>4. Judging from the performance of 25 second-day trading, 1/3 probability of falling and 2/3 probability of rising. The largest decline was 9.43%, which is also what happened during the circuit breaker of the new crown market. Putting aside this special maximum decline, the decline on the second day was distributed between 0.01-2.77%.</p><p>5. Based on the performance of two days, there is a 100% probability that the market will be lower than the level before the plunge. The average decline in the two days was 3.6%, and the median decline was 2.7%. In other words, even if the market rebounds strongly today, it is unlikely to return to the level before the plunge.</p><p>If history is any reference, the market shouldn't be too bad today.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market comments | After the U.S. stock market plummeted, how will the market behave the next day?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market comments | After the U.S. stock market plummeted, how will the market behave the next day?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-06 20:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1113585245\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | Non-farm payrolls data is higher than expected! The three major futures indexes pulled up in the short term</b></a><b></b></p><p>As of today's pre-market, there is still no good explanation for why the market plummeted yesterday. Judging from the trading of index options, it is also relatively normal. However, the current focus of the market is no longer the reason for yesterday's market crash, but how the US stock market will behave today after the crash.</p><p>This question is very difficult to answer, and no one can give accurate logic. The only breakthrough point is to look at the market performance after the U.S. stock market plummeted from a probabilistic perspective. The table below shows the market performance the next day after the Nasdaq fell 3% since 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc972a81628e057e9980cd2b19aa5dc8\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e2fdd3ada8e94dc1ebad24ec60bb5b\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>1. Since January 1, 2020, the Nasdaq has fallen by more than 3% a total of 26 times, and 8 times occurred when the new crown hit in March 2020. It has only appeared twice in 2021, and it performed the best.</p><p>2. The possibility of a sharp drop for two consecutive days is very small. It has only occurred once in the past two years, on March 11 and 12, 2020.</p><p>3. Judging from the performance of 25 second-day trading, the median performance is up 1%, and the average performance is also up 1%.</p><p>4. Judging from the performance of 25 second-day trading, 1/3 probability of falling and 2/3 probability of rising. The largest decline was 9.43%, which is also what happened during the circuit breaker of the new crown market. Putting aside this special maximum decline, the decline on the second day was distributed between 0.01-2.77%.</p><p>5. Based on the performance of two days, there is a 100% probability that the market will be lower than the level before the plunge. The average decline in the two days was 3.6%, and the median decline was 2.7%. In other words, even if the market rebounds strongly today, it is unlikely to return to the level before the plunge.</p><p>If history is any reference, the market shouldn't be too bad today.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126782908","content_text":"》》》盘前 | 非农数据高于预期！三大期指短线拉升截止到今天盘前，关于昨天市场究竟为什么大跌，依旧没有一个很好的解释。从指数期权的交易来看，也比较正常。不过目前市场关注的重点，已经不再是昨天市场大跌的原因，而是大跌之后今天美股会怎么表现。这个问题非常难回答，也没有人能给出准确的逻辑，唯一的突破点，就是从概率上来看美股大跌之后的市场表现。下表是2020年以来纳斯达克大跌3%之后，次日的市场表现。1，2020年1月1日以来，纳斯达克下跌超过3%一共出现了26次，有8次出现在了2020年3月新冠来袭的时候。2021年只出现过两次，表现最为优异。2，连续两日大跌的可能性非常小，过去两年只出现过一次，是2020年3月11和12日。3，从25个第二日交易表现来看，中位数的表现是上涨1%，平均数的表现也是上涨1%。4，从25个第二日交易表现来看，1/3的概率下跌，2/3的概率上涨。下跌的最大幅度是9.43%，也是新冠市场熔断期间发生的事情。抛开这次特殊的最大跌幅，第二日的跌幅分布在0.01-2.77%。5，综合两天的表现，100%概率市场会低于大跌前的水平。两天下来平均跌幅3.6%，中位数跌幅2.7%。也就是说，即使今天市场强势反弹，也不大可能回到大跌前的水平。如果历史具有参考意义，今天市场不应该太糟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066953179,"gmtCreate":1651842805291,"gmtModify":1676534981965,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066953179","repostId":"1183451845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068055363,"gmtCreate":1651707133184,"gmtModify":1676534951594,"author":{"id":"4102111421527460","authorId":"4102111421527460","name":"snow mak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f80ff610ca4a137e13e6769081ef65","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102111421527460","idStr":"4102111421527460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068055363","repostId":"1177551860","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177551860","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651676034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177551860?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-04 22:53","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | Without an investment system, stock trading is lucky","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177551860","media":"思想钢印","summary":"有了投资体系，你只能赚你的投资体系内能够赚到的钱；但没有投资体系，你可能就永远无法确定自己的钱在哪儿。实际上，有没有投资体系的支持，不是机构与散户的区别，而是专业与业余的区别。而投资体系的设计中最重要的一条就是控制你的交易体系中必然会被放大的风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With an investment system, you can only earn as much money as you can earn within your investment system; But without an investment system, you may never be sure where your money is.<b>1、</b><b><b>Investment opportunities that don't make sense</b></b></p><p>Many people have been annoyed that they didn't buy a certain stock they were optimistic about, and finally it rose sharply. They think that they have a good eye for stock selection, but they are just unlucky. Optimists even think that luck is equal, which means that they can earn a big vote next time.</p><p>This kind of annoyance always reminds me of a story I have seen before. When a group of philosophers discussed the meaning of freedom, they disagreed on the definition of freedom. One of them gave an example: If the jailer of a prison opens the door of the prison in the middle of the night when the prisoners are all asleep, are the prisoners free at this time?</p><p>Stocks you are optimistic about but didn't buy are just like an open prison door does not mean freedom for sleeping prisoners. This kind of investment opportunity is not only meaningless, but also if you always miss such opportunities, or you will always choose one of the two. Wrong, because luck is equal in the long run, it just proves that there are loopholes in your investment system.</p><p>To give some simple examples, people are often optimistic about a certain stock, but think it is too expensive, so they wait until it is cheaper before buying it.</p><p>This seems very simple. In fact, even if it is a simple opportunity as \"de-valuation bubble\", this idea cannot be completed without a mature investment system.</p><p>Why is it? A stock is relatively expensive, and it is not what you imagined to return to a reasonable valuation in the future. It slowly falls for you to buy because of its expensive valuation. It must have completed the decline with the help of some negative events, which may be a sharp decline in a short period of time. Without such an event, it can't fall all the time.</p><p>Therefore, if a company that you are too expensive to buy really falls, it must be substantially negative or the market has experienced a panic decline. Whether to implement your plan as scheduled is not only a matter of value judgment, but also requires the support of the investment system.</p><p>Many people think that retail investors are nothing more than buying a few stocks and holding them for a long time, without the need for an investment system.</p><p><b>In fact, whether there is support from the investment system or not is not the difference between institutions and retail investors, but the difference between professionals and amateurs.</b></p><p>The first article in this series will clarify this basic logic: Why should individuals also have an investment system?</p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>What is an investment system?</b></b></p><p>Buffett's first purchase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>At that time, it had been many years since Apple had been unable to outperform the index, and Apple still lost money at the beginning, so many people laughed at Buffett for saying not to buy technology stocks, but ended up buying technology stocks. And if you want to buy it, don't buy it early. Wait until others have doubled it dozens of times before buying it, and you will be trapped.</p><p>As a result, Apple once again saved Buffett's reputation. He made nearly $100 billion on this stock, making up for the losses of his other holdings.</p><p>In fact, his previous poor performance and later he made a fortune on Apple. They are completely two sides of the same system. On the one hand, you must bear the pain of not being able to find a suitable investment product for a long time, and on the other hand, it is the fruit of a heavy attack after adhering to the system for a long time.</p><p>According to Buffett's investment logic, buy understandable companies with long-term stable cash flow at reasonable valuations, and concentrate on holding a few companies. In the later period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's size makes it almost impossible to find an investment target that can outperform the index for a long time, so he still holds it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>There is no choice.</p><p>So that also explains why he didn't buy apples earlier. Because Buffett wants an apple with stable cash flow and consumption stickiness, not an apple that is developing revolutionary products with unpredictable prospects. It's still a consumer stock investment, just with some tech attributes.</p><p>From a fatalistic point of view, Buffett's purchase of Apple is a destined thing. Apple is waiting for Buffett with its own maturity, and Buffett is also waiting for Apple to mature.</p><p>So, I'm going to give my own definition of the term \"investment system\": a stable, proven investment system, like a carefully designed fishing net, allows you to stop striking around looking for investors, but wait patiently for investors to swim into your net like fish.</p><p>This passage is actually Buffett's \"baseball player theory\", but it is understood here from the perspective of the investment system.</p><p><b>Therefore, the purpose of the investment system is not to expand profits, but to increase the certainty of profits-this is crucial for an institution that needs to continue to operate.</b></p><p>Then why do individual investors also need to increase the certainty of profitability?</p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>Five Reasons Individual Investors Need an Investment System</b></b></p><p>Individual investors likewise need an investment system for five reasons.</p><p><b>First, get rid of self-doubt and pointless attempts</b></p><p>Investment is a complex activity that cannot be simply attributed. It has countless theoretical schools, and it is impossible to simply prove which one is absolutely effective. Many methods require long-term persistence, and it is difficult to get positive feedback from the short term, which leads individual investors to constantly try various methods. Constantly fail in methods.</p><p>At the same time, investing is an activity based on probability, and personal emotional experience often misleads you. Therefore, you need to learn from a system that is relatively theoretically based and in line with your own personality, so that you can get rid of self-doubt and focus on research and trading itself.</p><p><b>Second, use the system to gather your own research and transactions</b></p><p>Value investors must have at least a set of trading methods and a set of research methods. Self-consistency between research and trading is the most basic requirement, but some methods do not work well, and some research methods are contradictory to trading methods. For example, fundamental research and T-reducing costs are two completely different investment concepts, which require two teams to carry out them. If investors want to complete them alone, the results will mostly be to focus on one thing and lose another.</p><p>The self-consistency of the method depends on the investment system. Through systematization, the research method and trading method are fixed. If you have three thousand weak water, you only take one ladle of drink. The key is to know which ladle is your dish.</p><p><b>Third, focus on circle of competence</b></p><p>Different types of companies in different industries have different investment methods, and personal experience, ability, insight, and thinking methods are all limited. Only by focusing can we strive for good results.</p><p>Everyone has their own familiar industries, their favorite business models and company types, and they correspond to specific investment methods. Once your investment system is fixed, you can better focus on these areas and make your own research efficiency improve.</p><p><b>Fourth, cultivate correct trading habits</b></p><p>It stands to reason that individual investors buy a few white horses and hold them for a long time, which is a method with slightly lower returns but a very high winning rate. But in fact, the reason why a large number of retail investors lose money is the wrong trading habits caused by human nature, such as chasing ups and downs, and doing T+0. These methods are extremely difficult, and even short-term masters can only maintain the winning rate at 60%. There is also emotional trading, like to keep the weak and sell the strong, like to buy bottoms at will, like to sell stocks at will, believe too much in low PE stocks, blindly believe in mean reversion, and so on.</p><p>The trading system in the investment system can help you restrain yourself with standardized operations, eliminate high-risk transactions, reduce unnecessary transactions, and gather high-winning transactions.</p><p><b>Fifth, control risks</b></p><p>In investment, when encountering setbacks, the most common wrong reaction is to be eager to recover the losses, and the result of this idea is that small mistakes become big mistakes, and big mistakes become irreparable mistakes.</p><p>But in investment, the first priority is always to control risks. When encountering repeated mistakes, the correct response is to stop trading and check whether there are any fatal problems in your investment system. If not, it is just a short-term style wrong, so wait for the style to change.</p><p>The most important thing in the design of the investment system is to control the risks that will inevitably be amplified in your trading system.</p><p><b>4、</b><b><b>A meaningful but unnecessary argument</b></b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, a friend of a fund manager who specializes in TMT investing had an argument with a researcher in a traditional industry.</p><p>Fund managers believe that automobiles are a very bad business model, and new products require huge investment first, but the success rate is not high, which makes this industry very conservative; Researchers believe that there is no better business model than the automobile industry, and you can owe money to both upstream and downstream. The only problem in this industry is that shareholders are not rewarded, and the management works for employees.</p><p>Whose opinion is right? Actually, it doesn't matter. The fund manager later bought<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The logic of making money is that the industry is large in scale but the business model is not good, and the emergence of a disruptor is of course an investment opportunity; And researchers have been recommending us to take heavy positions at the bottom last year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>, because this is the most growth target in the existing business model, and those who finally listened to him also made money.</p><p>Every day there are countless arguments in the investing world that are both meaningful and unnecessary. \"Meaningful\" means that value discovery in investment is a process of voting with money, and convincing investment logic will be recognized by more investors with the debate, allowing the stock price to realize itself; \"Unnecessary\" means that each investment logic is only applicable to the corresponding investment system to earn the money you should earn.</p><p><b>With an investment system, you can only earn as much money as you can earn within your investment system; But without an investment system, you may never be sure where your money is.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | Without an investment system, stock trading is lucky</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | Without an investment system, stock trading is lucky\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-04 22:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With an investment system, you can only earn as much money as you can earn within your investment system; But without an investment system, you may never be sure where your money is.<b>1、</b><b><b>Investment opportunities that don't make sense</b></b></p><p>Many people have been annoyed that they didn't buy a certain stock they were optimistic about, and finally it rose sharply. They think that they have a good eye for stock selection, but they are just unlucky. Optimists even think that luck is equal, which means that they can earn a big vote next time.</p><p>This kind of annoyance always reminds me of a story I have seen before. When a group of philosophers discussed the meaning of freedom, they disagreed on the definition of freedom. One of them gave an example: If the jailer of a prison opens the door of the prison in the middle of the night when the prisoners are all asleep, are the prisoners free at this time?</p><p>Stocks you are optimistic about but didn't buy are just like an open prison door does not mean freedom for sleeping prisoners. This kind of investment opportunity is not only meaningless, but also if you always miss such opportunities, or you will always choose one of the two. Wrong, because luck is equal in the long run, it just proves that there are loopholes in your investment system.</p><p>To give some simple examples, people are often optimistic about a certain stock, but think it is too expensive, so they wait until it is cheaper before buying it.</p><p>This seems very simple. In fact, even if it is a simple opportunity as \"de-valuation bubble\", this idea cannot be completed without a mature investment system.</p><p>Why is it? A stock is relatively expensive, and it is not what you imagined to return to a reasonable valuation in the future. It slowly falls for you to buy because of its expensive valuation. It must have completed the decline with the help of some negative events, which may be a sharp decline in a short period of time. Without such an event, it can't fall all the time.</p><p>Therefore, if a company that you are too expensive to buy really falls, it must be substantially negative or the market has experienced a panic decline. Whether to implement your plan as scheduled is not only a matter of value judgment, but also requires the support of the investment system.</p><p>Many people think that retail investors are nothing more than buying a few stocks and holding them for a long time, without the need for an investment system.</p><p><b>In fact, whether there is support from the investment system or not is not the difference between institutions and retail investors, but the difference between professionals and amateurs.</b></p><p>The first article in this series will clarify this basic logic: Why should individuals also have an investment system?</p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>What is an investment system?</b></b></p><p>Buffett's first purchase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>At that time, it had been many years since Apple had been unable to outperform the index, and Apple still lost money at the beginning, so many people laughed at Buffett for saying not to buy technology stocks, but ended up buying technology stocks. And if you want to buy it, don't buy it early. Wait until others have doubled it dozens of times before buying it, and you will be trapped.</p><p>As a result, Apple once again saved Buffett's reputation. He made nearly $100 billion on this stock, making up for the losses of his other holdings.</p><p>In fact, his previous poor performance and later he made a fortune on Apple. They are completely two sides of the same system. On the one hand, you must bear the pain of not being able to find a suitable investment product for a long time, and on the other hand, it is the fruit of a heavy attack after adhering to the system for a long time.</p><p>According to Buffett's investment logic, buy understandable companies with long-term stable cash flow at reasonable valuations, and concentrate on holding a few companies. In the later period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's size makes it almost impossible to find an investment target that can outperform the index for a long time, so he still holds it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>There is no choice.</p><p>So that also explains why he didn't buy apples earlier. Because Buffett wants an apple with stable cash flow and consumption stickiness, not an apple that is developing revolutionary products with unpredictable prospects. It's still a consumer stock investment, just with some tech attributes.</p><p>From a fatalistic point of view, Buffett's purchase of Apple is a destined thing. Apple is waiting for Buffett with its own maturity, and Buffett is also waiting for Apple to mature.</p><p>So, I'm going to give my own definition of the term \"investment system\": a stable, proven investment system, like a carefully designed fishing net, allows you to stop striking around looking for investors, but wait patiently for investors to swim into your net like fish.</p><p>This passage is actually Buffett's \"baseball player theory\", but it is understood here from the perspective of the investment system.</p><p><b>Therefore, the purpose of the investment system is not to expand profits, but to increase the certainty of profits-this is crucial for an institution that needs to continue to operate.</b></p><p>Then why do individual investors also need to increase the certainty of profitability?</p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>Five Reasons Individual Investors Need an Investment System</b></b></p><p>Individual investors likewise need an investment system for five reasons.</p><p><b>First, get rid of self-doubt and pointless attempts</b></p><p>Investment is a complex activity that cannot be simply attributed. It has countless theoretical schools, and it is impossible to simply prove which one is absolutely effective. Many methods require long-term persistence, and it is difficult to get positive feedback from the short term, which leads individual investors to constantly try various methods. Constantly fail in methods.</p><p>At the same time, investing is an activity based on probability, and personal emotional experience often misleads you. Therefore, you need to learn from a system that is relatively theoretically based and in line with your own personality, so that you can get rid of self-doubt and focus on research and trading itself.</p><p><b>Second, use the system to gather your own research and transactions</b></p><p>Value investors must have at least a set of trading methods and a set of research methods. Self-consistency between research and trading is the most basic requirement, but some methods do not work well, and some research methods are contradictory to trading methods. For example, fundamental research and T-reducing costs are two completely different investment concepts, which require two teams to carry out them. If investors want to complete them alone, the results will mostly be to focus on one thing and lose another.</p><p>The self-consistency of the method depends on the investment system. Through systematization, the research method and trading method are fixed. If you have three thousand weak water, you only take one ladle of drink. The key is to know which ladle is your dish.</p><p><b>Third, focus on circle of competence</b></p><p>Different types of companies in different industries have different investment methods, and personal experience, ability, insight, and thinking methods are all limited. Only by focusing can we strive for good results.</p><p>Everyone has their own familiar industries, their favorite business models and company types, and they correspond to specific investment methods. Once your investment system is fixed, you can better focus on these areas and make your own research efficiency improve.</p><p><b>Fourth, cultivate correct trading habits</b></p><p>It stands to reason that individual investors buy a few white horses and hold them for a long time, which is a method with slightly lower returns but a very high winning rate. But in fact, the reason why a large number of retail investors lose money is the wrong trading habits caused by human nature, such as chasing ups and downs, and doing T+0. These methods are extremely difficult, and even short-term masters can only maintain the winning rate at 60%. There is also emotional trading, like to keep the weak and sell the strong, like to buy bottoms at will, like to sell stocks at will, believe too much in low PE stocks, blindly believe in mean reversion, and so on.</p><p>The trading system in the investment system can help you restrain yourself with standardized operations, eliminate high-risk transactions, reduce unnecessary transactions, and gather high-winning transactions.</p><p><b>Fifth, control risks</b></p><p>In investment, when encountering setbacks, the most common wrong reaction is to be eager to recover the losses, and the result of this idea is that small mistakes become big mistakes, and big mistakes become irreparable mistakes.</p><p>But in investment, the first priority is always to control risks. When encountering repeated mistakes, the correct response is to stop trading and check whether there are any fatal problems in your investment system. If not, it is just a short-term style wrong, so wait for the style to change.</p><p>The most important thing in the design of the investment system is to control the risks that will inevitably be amplified in your trading system.</p><p><b>4、</b><b><b>A meaningful but unnecessary argument</b></b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, a friend of a fund manager who specializes in TMT investing had an argument with a researcher in a traditional industry.</p><p>Fund managers believe that automobiles are a very bad business model, and new products require huge investment first, but the success rate is not high, which makes this industry very conservative; Researchers believe that there is no better business model than the automobile industry, and you can owe money to both upstream and downstream. The only problem in this industry is that shareholders are not rewarded, and the management works for employees.</p><p>Whose opinion is right? Actually, it doesn't matter. The fund manager later bought<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The logic of making money is that the industry is large in scale but the business model is not good, and the emergence of a disruptor is of course an investment opportunity; And researchers have been recommending us to take heavy positions at the bottom last year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>, because this is the most growth target in the existing business model, and those who finally listened to him also made money.</p><p>Every day there are countless arguments in the investing world that are both meaningful and unnecessary. \"Meaningful\" means that value discovery in investment is a process of voting with money, and convincing investment logic will be recognized by more investors with the debate, allowing the stock price to realize itself; \"Unnecessary\" means that each investment logic is only applicable to the corresponding investment system to earn the money you should earn.</p><p><b>With an investment system, you can only earn as much money as you can earn within your investment system; But without an investment system, you may never be sure where your money is.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZEbFmkRMsYvKJnlZ8kuXYA\">思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZEbFmkRMsYvKJnlZ8kuXYA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177551860","content_text":"有了投资体系，你只能赚你的投资体系内能够赚到的钱；但没有投资体系，你可能就永远无法确定自己的钱在哪儿。1、没有意义的投资机会很多人都曾懊恼于自己看好的某个股票没有买，最后大涨，就认为自己的选股眼光很好，只是运气欠佳。乐观者更是认为，运气是平等的，说明自己下次能赚一票大的。这类懊恼总是让我想起以前看到过的一个故事，有一群哲学家在讨论“自由的意义”时，对自由的定义产生了分歧，其中一个哲学家举了个例子：假如一座监狱的狱卒在三更半夜趁囚犯都熟睡时打开监狱的大门，请问，犯人们此时是自由的吗？看好却没有买的股票，就像打开的监狱大门对于熟睡的囚徒不代表自由一样，这种投资机会不但没有任何意义，而且，如果你总是错过这类机会，或者二选一总会选错，因为运气长期看是平等的，所以恰恰证明你的投资体系有漏洞。举一些简单的例子，常常有人看好某股，但觉得太贵，等便宜一点再买。这看起来很简单，实际上，就算是“去估值泡沫”这么简单的机会，如果没有一个成熟的投资体系，这个想法也是无法完成的。为什么呢？一个股票比较贵，未来回到合理估值，并不是你想像中的，它因为估值贵而慢慢跌下来让你买。它一定是借助一些利空事件来完成下跌，可能是很短的时间急跌下来。如果没有这样的事件，它就一直跌不下来。所以，你嫌贵不敢买的公司，真跌下来一定是有实质性利空或大盘发生恐慌性下跌，要不要如期实施你的计划，既是一个价值判断的问题，也需要投资体系的支持。很多人觉得，散户无非就是买几个股票，长期持有，不需要投资体系。实际上，有没有投资体系的支持，不是机构与散户的区别，而是专业与业余的区别。这个系列的第一篇就要把这个基本逻辑说清楚：为什么个人也要有投资体系？2、什么是投资体系？巴菲特第一次买苹果的时候，已经有好多年跑不赢指数了，再加上苹果一开始还是亏钱的，所以很多人嘲笑巴菲特说过不买科技股，结果还是买了科技股。而且要买也不早点买，等别人翻了几十倍再买，被套了吧。结果却是，苹果再一次挽救了巴菲特的声誉。他在这只股票上赚了将近1000亿美金，弥补了他其他持仓的亏损。其实他之前的业绩不佳和后来在苹果上大赚一笔。完全是一个体系的两面，一面是必须承受长期找不到合适的投资品种之痛，另一面是长期坚持体系后重仓出击一击必中的硕果。按照巴菲特的投资逻辑，以合理的估值买看得懂的、具有长期稳定现金流的公司，再加上还要集中持有少数几家公司，到后期，以伯克希尔哈撒韦的规模，几乎无法找到能够长期跑赢指数的投资对象，所以他到现在还拿着可口可乐，别无选择。所以这也解释了他为什么不早点买苹果。因为巴菲特要的苹果是具有稳定现金流和消费粘性的苹果，而不是正在开发前景莫测的革命性产品的苹果。这仍然是一笔消费股投资，只是带有一些科技属性。从宿命论的角度来看，巴菲特买苹果就是一件命中注定的事情，苹果在用自己的成熟等待巴菲特，巴菲特也在等待苹果成熟。所以，我要给“投资体系”这个词下一个我自己的定义：一个稳定的，验证过的投资体系，就像一张精心设计过的渔网，可以让你不再四处出击，寻找投资对象，而是耐心等待投资对象像鱼儿一样游到你的网里。这段话其实就是巴菲特的“棒球手理论”，只是这里从投资体系的角度去理解。所以投资体系其实目的并不在于扩大盈利，而是增加盈利的确定性——这对一家需要持续运营的机构而言，是至关重要的。那为什么个人投资者同样需要增加盈利的确定性呢？3、个人投资者需要投资体系的五个原因个人投资者同样需要投资体系，有五个原因。第一，摆脱自我怀疑和毫无意义的尝试投资是一个无法简单归因的复杂活动，它有无数理论流派，无法简单的证明哪一派绝对有效，很多方法需要长期坚持，很难从短期得到正反馈，导致个人投资者在不断地尝试各种方法中不断地失败。同时，投资又是一种基于概率的活动，个人感性经验常常会误导你。所以你需要借鉴一个相对有理论依据，又符合自己性格的体系，让自己摆脱自我怀疑，专注于研究与交易本身。第二、用体系聚集自己的研究和交易价值投资者至少要有一套交易方法和一套研究方法，研究与交易的自洽是最基本的要求，但有一些方法之间的配合效果不好，还有一些研究方法与交易方法是矛盾的，比如基本面研究和做T降低成本，是两种完全不同的投资理念，需要两个团队来进行，投资者如果想一个人完成，那结果大多是顾此失彼。方法的自洽靠的是投资体系，通过体系化，把研究方法和交易方法都固定下来，弱水三千，只取一瓢饮。关键要知道，哪一瓢是你的菜。第三、聚焦能力圈不同行业不同类型的公司，有不同的投资方法，而个人的经历、能力、见识、思考方法都是有限的，只有聚焦才能争取好结果。每个人都有自己熟悉的行业，有自己喜欢的商业模式和公司类型，它们又对应着特定的投资方法，一旦你的投资体系固定下来，你就可以更好地聚焦这些领域，让自己的研究效率提高。第四、培养正确的交易习惯按理说，个人投资者买几只白马长期持有，是收益略低但胜率非常高的方法。但实际上，大量散户亏损的原因就是人性导致的错误的交易习惯，比如追涨杀跌，做T+0，这些方法难度极大，就算是短线高手也只能把胜率维持在六成。还有情绪化交易，喜欢留弱卖强，喜欢随意抄底，喜欢随意卖股票，过于相信低PE股票，盲目相信均值回归，等等。而投资体系中的交易体系，可以帮助自己以标准化的操作约束自己，杜绝高风险的交易，减少不必要的交易，聚集高胜率的交易。第五、控制风险投资中，在遇到挫折时，最常见的错误反应就是急于把损失扳回来，而这个想法的结果就是小错变大错，大错变无法挽回的错误。但在投资中，第一位的永远是控制风险。遇到反复错误，正确的应对是停止交易，检视自己的投资体系有没有致命的问题，如果没有，就只是短期的风格不对，那就等待风格转变。而投资体系的设计中最重要的一条就是控制你的交易体系中必然会被放大的风险。4、一场有意义但毫无必要的争论年初时，一位擅长TMT投资的基金经理朋友与一位传统行业的研究员发生了争论。基金经理认为，汽车是一个很糟糕的生意模式，新产品先要有巨额投资，但成功率并不高，导致这个行业非常的保守；研究员则认为，没有再比汽车行业更好的商业模式了，对上游和下游都可以欠款，这行业唯一的问题是不回报股东，管理层给员工打工。到底谁的看法正确呢？其实这不重要。基金经理后来买特斯拉赚了钱，其逻辑是，这个行业规模大但商业模式不好，出现了一个颠覆者当然就是投资机会；而研究员去年在底部一直推荐我们重仓长城汽车，因为这是现有商业模式中最具成长性的标的，最终听了他的话的人也赚了钱。每一天投资界都在进行无数的争论，这些争论既有意义又毫无必要。“有意义”是指，投资中的价值发现是一个用钱投票的过程，有说服力的投资逻辑会随着争论被更多投资者认可，让股价自我实现；“毫无必要”是指每一个投资逻辑只适用于对应的投资体系，赚自己该赚的钱。有了投资体系，你只能赚你的投资体系内能够赚到的钱；但没有投资体系，你可能就永远无法确定自己的钱在哪儿。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}