To The Moon

Investment themes for H2 2023RC-2023.06-Key-convictions-fig2Follow the sequenceRC-2023.06-Key-convictions-fig3Key CIO convictions for H2 2023Markets are at a critical juncture as central banks are hitting the pause button after the fastest hiking cycle since the ‘80s. Quality is the compass for navigating this phase.1. Narrow and uncertain path to growth, with a bottom in H2 2023The lagging effects of tightening in the real economy will lead to a further deceleration in growth with divergences: a mild US recession, anaemic growth in Europe and more resilience in emerging markets. With low absolute numbers, both on the positive (Europe) and negative (United States) sides, the path ahead remains very uncertain.2. Gradual slowdown in inflationInflation is trending lower, but the speed of adju

I think we are all looking forward to the July FOMC meeting and it is all abut interest rates. In this article, I am trying my best to explore the significance and implications of the Three-Month Average SOFR, shedding light on its importance for various market participants. Benchmark interest rates play a crucial role in determining borrowing costs and shaping investment strategies. In recent years, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has emerged as a key reference rate, replacing the venerable LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate). Understanding SOFR The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate that reflects the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities. It is based on transaction data from the repurchase agreement

Major U.S. banks, such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, will commence reporting their second-quarter results on July 14. Heading into the earnings season for the second quarter, banks are faced with low expectations as earnings have yet to make a significant recovery since the eruption of the regional banking crisis in March. The prevailing market sentiment towards bank stocks is excessively negative, but robust net interest income will likely surprise investors and offset the weakness in capital markets.US banking stocks have been among the best-performing sectors in the past week, indicating that investors may be positioning themselves for a positive earnings and outlook surprise from US banks. The future performance of US banks largely depends on whether the U.S. economy e