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- YFDXVBGBYFDXVBGB
  ·2022-05-12
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  Taiwan Semiconductor: One Of The World's Greatest Dividend Growth Stocks Is On Sale
  tiero/iStock via Getty Images2022 has been a brutal year for most investors, especially tech investo
  Taiwan Semiconductor: One Of The World's Greatest Dividend Growth Stocks Is On Sale
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- YFDXVBGBYFDXVBGB
  ·2022-05-12
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  Hong Kong Stocks Slid on Thursday
  Hong Kong stocks slid on Thursday, with the Hang Seng technology index down nearly 4%. Tencent, Alib
  Hong Kong Stocks Slid on Thursday
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- YFDXVBGBYFDXVBGB
  ·2022-05-12
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  Hong Kong Stocks Slid on Thursday
  Hong Kong stocks slid on Thursday, with the Hang Seng technology index down nearly 4%. Tencent, Alib
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05:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor: One Of The World's Greatest Dividend Growth Stocks Is On Sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234963455","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"tiero/iStock via Getty Images2022 has been a brutal year for most investors, especially tech investo","content":"<p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1314029611/image_1314029611.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>tiero/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><p>2022 has been a brutal year for most investors, especially tech investors.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/11/47572571-165227754166124.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>According to Bloomberg, 50% of the Nasdaq Composite (2,500 companies) is down 50+%, 22% is down 75+%, and 5% is down 90+%.</p><p>The more speculative the company, the worse the carnage.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/11/47572571-16522776987572181.png\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Charlie Bilello</p><p></p><p>According to JPMorgan 44% of US companies since 1980 crashed over 70% and never recovered.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/11/47572571-16522777421406589.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>JPMorgan Asset Management</p><p></p><p>This showcases the importance of focusing on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always.</p><blockquote>\"In order to win the game, first you must not lose it.\" - Chuck Noll</blockquote><p>Today I wanted to highlight Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's safest and highest quality hyper-growth blue-chips.</p><p>Let me show you the four reasons why I recently recommended them for DK members and bought some for my retirement portfolio.</p><p>More importantly, I'll show you why this might be a hyper-growth blue-chip bargain you might want to add to your diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio.</p><h2>Reason One: Taiwan Semi Is The Complete Package</h2><p>Bottom line up front, TSM has a 20% dividend tax withholding.</p><ul><li>What You Need To Know About Foreign Dividend Withholding Taxes</li><li>TSM is a Taiwanese company so US investors face 20% dividend withholding taxes on their shares</li><li>a tax credit recoups this if you fill out the paperwork and own them in taxable accounts</li></ul><p>Why go through this trouble to own TSM?</p><h4>Reasons To Potentially Buy TSM Today</h4><ul><li><b>97% quality medium-risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN hyper-growth chip maker</b></li><li><b>96% dividend safety score</b></li><li>0.5% average recession cut risk</li><li>1.2% severe recession cut risk</li><li>2.2% very safe yield</li><li>6-year dividend growth streak (no cuts since it began paying one in 2003)</li></ul><blockquote>\"TSMC intends to maintain a sustainable quarterly cash dividend and to distribute the cash dividend each year at a level not lower than the year before.\" - Investor relations</blockquote><ul><li><b>17% conservatively undervalued (potential strong buy)</b></li><li>Fair Value: $108.81 (18.5X earnings)</li><li>15.5X forward earnings vs 17X to 20X historical</li><li><b>9.2X cash-adjusted earnings</b></li><li><b>AA- stable outlook credit rating =0.55% 30-year bankruptcy risk</b></li><li><b>88th industry percentile risk management consensus = very good bordering exceptional</b></li><li>18% to 28% CAGR margin-of-error growth consensus range</li><li>20.7% CAGR median growth consensus</li><li><b>5-year consensus total return potential: 16% to 24% CAGR</b></li><li><b>base-case 5-year consensus return potential: 19% CAGR (4X S&amp;P consensus)</b></li><li><b>consensus 12-month total return forecast: 63% (overly bullish)</b></li><li><b>Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Returns: 21% CAGR</b></li></ul><p>TSM is in a 35% bear market not justified by its strong fundamentals.</p><ul><li>Its peak 30X PE made it approximately 42% overvalued in mid-January 2022</li></ul><h4>TSM Investment Thesis Is Intact</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>2021 Growth Consensus</b></td><td><b>2022 Growth Consensus</b></td><td><b>2023 Growth Consensus</b></td><td><b>2024 Growth Consensus</b></td><td><p><b>2025 Growth Consensus</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Sales</td><td>25%</td><td>27%</td><td>15%</td><td>18%</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend</td><td>10%</td><td>12%</td><td>2%</td><td>12%</td><td>NA</td></tr><tr><td><b>EPS</b></td><td><b>17%</b></td><td><b>37%</b></td><td><b>9%</b></td><td><b>17%</b></td><td><b>17%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Operating Cash Flow</td><td>41%</td><td>16%</td><td>13%</td><td>24%</td><td>NA</td></tr><tr><td>Free Cash Flow</td><td>-42%</td><td>-19%</td><td>122%</td><td>83%</td><td>NA</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA</td><td>26%</td><td>29%</td><td>17%</td><td>18%</td><td>NA</td></tr><tr><td>EBIT (operating income)</td><td>21%</td><td>41%</td><td>10%</td><td>17%</td><td>NA</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</i></p><p>TSM's growth thesis remains firmly intact.</p><h4><b>TSM Rolling Returns Since November 1997</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-1652086312722848.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</p><p></p><p>TSM has been a very consistent market-beater over the last 24 years, with 14% to 15% average rolling returns.</p><ul><li>from bear market bottoms returns as strong as 31% annually over the next 10 years</li><li>14X return over a decade</li></ul><h4><b>TSM 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520864258518312.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p></p><p>If TSM grows as analysts expect by 2024 it could deliver 54% total returns, or 18% annually.</p><ul><li>Buffett-like returns from an anti-bubble blue-chip bargain hiding in plain sight</li></ul><h4><b>TSM 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-1652086722085515.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-1652086700054994.png\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p></p><p>By 2027 if TSM grows as expected (19.1% CAGR) and returns to historical fair value, it could deliver 168% total returns or 19% annually.</p><ul><li><b>4X the S&amp;P 500 consensus</b></li><li>Buffett-like return potential</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b></td><td><b>2.2%</b></td><td><b>20.70%</b></td><td><b>22.9%</b></td><td><b>16.0%</b></td><td><b>13.5%</b></td><td><b>5.3</b></td><td><b>3.54</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq (Growth)</td><td>0.9%</td><td>14.3%</td><td>15.2%</td><td>10.6%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>8.9</td><td>2.17</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.2%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>13.8</td><td>1.66</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.1%</td><td>7.1%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>15.9</td><td>1.56</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><ul><li>analysts expect TSM to beat almost all investment strategies on Wall Street in the long-term</li><li>including the Nasdaq, aristocrats, and S&amp;P 500</li></ul><h4>TSM Total Returns Since November 1997</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-1652088930997587.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"70\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520890088978367.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</p><p></p><p>TSM has delivered 23X inflation-adjusted returns since Nov 1997, about 6X better than the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>What do analysts expect in the future?</p><h4>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Potential: $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>7.4% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&amp;P Consensus</b></td><td><b>8.7% Inflation-Adjusted Aristocrat Consensus</b></td><td><b>20.4% CAGR Inflation-AdjustedTSM Consensus</b></td><td><b>Difference Between Inflation Adjusted TSM Consensus And S&amp;P Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>$1,432.29</td><td>$1,514.08</td><td>$2,524.82</td><td>$1,092.53</td></tr><tr><td><b>10</b></td><td><b>$2,051.47</b></td><td><b>$2,292.44</b></td><td><b>$6,374.72</b></td><td><b>$4,323.25</b></td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>$2,938.30</td><td>$3,470.93</td><td>$16,095.02</td><td>$13,156.72</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>$4,208.51</td><td>$5,255.26</td><td>$40,637.02</td><td>$36,428.51</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>$6,027.82</td><td>$7,956.89</td><td>$102,601.18</td><td>$96,573.36</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>$8,633.61</td><td>$12,047.36</td><td>$259,049.55</td><td>$250,415.93</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>Even if TSM only grows as expected over the next 10 years, that's a very impressive 6.4X inflation-adjusted consensus potential.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>Ratio Aristocrats/S&amp;P</b></td><td><b>Ratio Inflation-Adjusted TSM Consensus And S&amp;P Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>1.06</td><td>1.76</td></tr><tr><td><b>10</b></td><td><b>1.12</b></td><td><b>3.11</b></td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>1.18</td><td>5.48</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>1.25</td><td>9.66</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>1.32</td><td>17.02</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>1.40</td><td>30.00</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>And beat the S&amp;P 500 by about 3X, possibly more if we have a lost decade for stocks.</p><h4>TSM Investment Decision Score</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/15/47572571-16449202227146766.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-1652089483974962.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: DK Automated Investment Decision Tool)</p><p></p><p>For anyone comfortable with its risk profile, TSM is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth Ultra SWANs you can buy today</p><ul><li>16% discount vs 5% market premium = 21% better valuation</li><li>0.7% higher and safer yield</li><li><b>130% higher long-term return potential than S&amp;P 500 overtime</b></li><li><i><b>nearly 3X better risk-adjusted expected return over the next five years</b></i></li></ul><h2>Reason <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a>: World-Class Quality You Can Trust In All Market Conditions</h2><p>There are many ways to measure safety and quality and I factor in pretty much all of them.</p><p>The Dividend Kings' overall quality scores are based on a 248-point model that includes:</p><ul><li><p>Dividend safety</p></li><li><p>Balance sheet strength</p></li><li><p>Credit ratings</p></li><li><p>Credit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk data</p></li><li><p>Short and long-term bankruptcy risk</p></li><li><p>Accounting and corporate fraud risk</p></li><li><p>Profitability and business model</p></li><li><p>Growth consensus estimates</p></li><li><p>Management growth guidance</p></li><li><p>Historical earnings growth rates</p></li><li><p>Historical cash flow growth rates</p></li><li><p>Historical dividend growth rates</p></li><li><p>Historical sales growth rates</p></li><li><p>Cost of capital</p></li><li>GF Scores</li><li><p>Long-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&amp;P, Reuters'/Refinitiv, and Just Capital</p></li><li><p>Management quality</p></li><li><p>Dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</p></li><li><p>Long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</p></li><li><p>Analyst consensus long-term return potential</p></li></ul><p>In fact, it includes over 1,000 fundamental metrics including the 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p><ul><li>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</li><li>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</li></ul><p>How do we know that our safety and quality model work well?</p><p>During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts, the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.</p><p>And then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.</p><h4>DK Zen Phoenix: Superior Fundamentals Lead To Superior Long-Term Results</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>US Stocks</b></td><td><b>191 Real Money DK Phoenix Recs</b></td></tr><tr><td>Great Recession Dividend Growth</td><td>-25%</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Pandemic Dividend Growth</td><td>-1%</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years</td><td>42%</td><td>99.5% (Greatest Investors In History 60% to 80% Over Time)</td></tr><tr><td>Lost Money/Went Bankrupt Over The Last 10 Years</td><td>47%</td><td>0.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Outperformed Market Over The Last Decade (290%)</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr><tr><td>Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years</td><td>11%</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline Since 1980</td><td>44%</td><td>0.5%</td></tr><tr><td>100+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>87%</td></tr><tr><td>200+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>66%</td></tr><tr><td>300+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>400+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>35%</td></tr><tr><td>500+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>27%</td></tr><tr><td>600+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>700+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>20%</td></tr><tr><td>800+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>900+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>1000+% Total Return Over The Past 10 Years</td><td>NA</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan, Seeking Alpha</td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Basically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is comprehensive and accurate.</p><p>How does TSM score on our comprehensive safety and quality models?</p><p><b>TSM Dividend Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (161 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>TSM</b></td><td><b>97%</b></td><td><b>0.5%</b></td><td><b>1.20%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Medium-Risk (88th industry percentile risk-management consensus) - China invasion risk</td><td>AA- Stable outlook credit rating 0.55% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (61% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>TSM</b></td><td><b>96%</b></td><td><b>Exceptional Dependability</b></td><td><b>5</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>TSM</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>97%</td><td>5/5 Very Safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 Wide, Stable Moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>96%</td><td>5/5 Exceptional</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>97%</b></td><td><b>13/13 Ultra SWAN</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td><p>2/3 Medium Risk</p></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec</td><td><p>5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td></tr></tbody></table><h4>Taiwan Semi Is The 19th Highest Quality Company On The Master List: 96th Percentile</h4><p>TSM isn't just a great company, it's one of the world's best companies, scoring 19th best on the DK Masterlist.</p><p>How impressive is that?</p><p>The DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:</p><ul><li><p>All dividend champions</p></li><li><p>All dividend aristocrats</p></li><li><p>All dividend kings</p></li><li><p>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</p></li><li><p>All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</p></li><li>49 of the world's best growth stocks</li></ul><h4>Why I Trust Taiwan Semi And So Can You</h4><p>Taiwan Semi was founded in 1987 and is the world's leading chipmaker.</p><p>TSM makes over 50% of the world's chips, a dominant position that analysts expect to be maintained in the future.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520906255981333.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>In the last year alone TSM spent $35 billion on growth including $30.5 billion in growth capex.</p><blockquote>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plans to spend $100 billion over the next three years to expand its chip fabrication capacity, a staggering financial commitment to address the booming demand for new technologies.\" - Bloomberg</blockquote><p>It can cost $10 to $20 billion to build a new chip factory and no one on earth can match TSM's growth capabilities.</p><ul><li>for context, the US government plans to invest $50 billion into increasing US chip capacity</li><li>TSM plans to spend 2X that much... just through 2024</li></ul><h4>Exceptional Management You can Trust</h4><blockquote>We rate TSMC's Capital Allocation as Exemplary...</blockquote><blockquote>TSMC's more stable earnings lead to more consistent dividends. The company has <b>never stopped paying dividends since its first distribution in 2004 (for 2003 earnings)</b> and has never reduced dividends. In fact, TSMC's <b>annual dividend per share has increased for six consecutive years with a payout ratio at around 50%</b>, which is a feat given the industry's cyclicality and heavy investments needed. The company has two main shareholder return policies. The first is to at least maintain, if not increase, dividend per share every year. The second is to <b>prioritize dividends over share repurchases</b>.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)</blockquote><p>TSM is a very dividend-friendly company, with management sticking to its knitting and avoiding complex M&amp;A deals.</p><blockquote>First-quarter revenue increased 12.1% sequentially at NT terms or 11.6% in U.S. dollar terms as our first quarter business was supported by strong HPC and automotive-related demand. First-quarter gross margin increased 2.9 percentage points sequentially to 55.6%, mainly as we continue to sell our value and improve costs. Operating margin increased 3.9 percentage points sequentially to 45.6%, primarily due to lower vaccine donation expenses as compared to the fourth quarter.\" - CEO, Q1 conference call</blockquote><p>Thanks to the global chip shortage TSM is seeing strong pricing power and its margins are expanding, along with double-digit sales growth.</p><blockquote>Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 20% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while 7-nanometer accounted for 30%. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 50% of wafer revenue.\" - CEO</blockquote><p>TSM is the industry leader in advanced chips, meaning smaller, more powerful, and more energy-efficient.</p><p>TSM is planning on rolling out 3-nm chip architecture in 2023.</p><p>TSM is on track for 2-nm chips in 2025.</p><ul><li>about 10X the energy-adjusted performance of today's chips</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520920813671465.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: BlueWeave Consulting)</p><p></p><p>BlueWave consulting estimates that by 2028 the global chip market will be $820 per year.</p><ul><li>TSM 2021 sales were $57.4 billion</li><li>analysts expect that to double to $110 billion by 2025</li></ul><h4>TSM Credit Ratings</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Credit Rating</b></td><td><b>30-Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk</b></td><td><b>Chance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 In</b></td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P</td><td>AA- Stable Outlook</td><td>0.55%</td><td>181.8</td></tr><tr><td>Moody's</td><td>Aa3 (AA- equivalent) Stable</td><td>0.55%</td><td>181.8</td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>AA- Stable Outlook</b></td><td><b>0.55%</b></td><td><b>181.8</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: S&amp;P, Moody's)</i></p><p>Rating agencies estimate a 0.55% fundamental risk for TSM, meaning a 1 in 182 chance of investors losing all their money in the next 30 years.</p><h4>TSM Leverage Consensus Forecast</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Debt/EBITDA</b></td><td><b>Net Debt/EBITDA (1.5 Or Less Safe According To Credit Rating Agencies)</b></td><td><p><b>Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>0.40</td><td>-0.46</td><td>302.49</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>0.68</td><td>-0.32</td><td>146.97</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>0.40</td><td>-0.21</td><td>169.20</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>0.34</td><td>-0.22</td><td>168.73</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>0.40</td><td>-0.37</td><td>128.93</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>NA</td><td>-0.58</td><td>NA</td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Change</b></td><td><b>0.07%</b></td><td><b>4.54%</b></td><td><b>-19.20%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>TSM has more cash than debt and is covering its interest costs by over 100X.</p><h4>TSM Balance Sheet Consensus Forecast</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Total Debt (Millions)</b></td><td><b>Cash</b></td><td><b>Net Debt (Millions)</b></td><td><b>Interest Cost (Millions)</b></td><td><b>EBITDA (Millions)</b></td><td><b>Operating Income (Millions)</b></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>$12,898</td><td>$23,607</td><td>-$14,805</td><td>$67</td><td>$32,129</td><td>$20,267</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>$26,229</td><td>$38,529</td><td>-$12,301</td><td>$160</td><td>$38,797</td><td>$23,515</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>$19,740</td><td>$36,135</td><td>-$10,318</td><td>$194</td><td>$49,067</td><td>$32,825</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>$19,740</td><td>$37,121</td><td>-$12,794</td><td>$215</td><td>$57,244</td><td>$36,278</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>$27,281</td><td>$47,663</td><td>-$25,276</td><td>$328</td><td>$67,769</td><td>$42,288</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>-$44,724</td><td>NA</td><td>$77,723</td><td>$50,283</td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td><td><b>20.60%</b></td><td><b>19.20%</b></td><td><b>24.75%</b></td><td><b>48.75%</b></td><td><b>19.32%</b></td><td><b>19.93%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>TSM's net cash is growing at 25% per year, faster than its cash flows which are growing at 20%.</p><h4>TSM Bond Profile</h4><ul><li>$40 billion in liquidity</li><li>well-staggered bond maturities (no issues refinancing maturing debt)</li><li>100% unsecured bonds (maximum financial flexibility)</li><li>bond investors are so confident in TSM's business they are willing to lend to it at under 2%</li><li>average borrowing costs 1.28%</li><li><b>-0.3% inflation-adjusted borrowing costs vs 23.8% cash returns on invested capital</b></li></ul><h2>TSM GF Score: The Newest Addition To The DK Safety And Quality Model</h2><blockquote>The GF Score is a ranking system that has been found to be closely correlated to the long-term performances of stocks by backtesting from 2006 to 2021.\" - Gurufocus</blockquote><p>GF Score takes five key aspects into consideration. They are:</p><ul><li>Financial Strength</li><li>Profitability</li><li>Growth</li><li>Valuation</li><li>Momentum</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520931469174542.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</p><p></p><p>TSM's near-perfect 97/100 GF score confirms it's an industry leader in everything that matters.</p><ul><li>industry-leading profitability</li><li>industry-leading financial strength</li><li>industry-leading growth</li><li>industry-leading value</li></ul><h4>TSM Profitability: Wall Street's Favorite Quality Proxy</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520932225461998.png\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</p><p></p><p>Historical profitability is in the top 10% of peers and in recent years it's become even better.</p><h4>TSM Trailing 12-Month Profitability Vs Peers</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><b>Major Chip Makers More Profitable Than TSM (Out Of 887)</b></td></tr><tr><td>Gross Margins</td><td>82.95</td><td>151</td></tr><tr><td>Operating Margin</td><td>97.37</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>Net Margin</td><td>96.45</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Equity</td><td>88.24</td><td>104</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Assets</td><td>88.50</td><td>102</td></tr><tr><td>Returns On Invested Capital</td><td>82.98</td><td>151</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Capital</td><td>67.16</td><td>291</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Capital Employed</td><td>84.04</td><td>142</td></tr><tr><td><b>Average</b></td><td><b>86.39</b></td><td><b>121</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</i></p><p>In the last year, TSM's profitability was in the top 14% of its peers.</p><h4>TSM Profit Margin Consensus Forecast</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>FCF Margin</b></td><td><b>EBITDA Margin</b></td><td><b>EBIT (Operating) Margin</b></td><td><b>Net Margin</b></td><td><b>Return On Capital Expansion</b></td><td><p><b>Return On Capital Forecast</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>23.6%</td><td>67.1%</td><td>42.3%</td><td>38.7%</td><td>1.12</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>11.5%</td><td>67.6%</td><td>40.9%</td><td>37.6%</td><td>TTM ROC</td><td>37.09%</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>7.4%</td><td>68.1%</td><td>45.6%</td><td>41.0%</td><td>Latest ROC</td><td>37.77%</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>15.1%</td><td>69.0%</td><td>43.7%</td><td>39.3%</td><td>2025 ROC</td><td>41.53%</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>23.2%</td><td>69.7%</td><td>43.5%</td><td>39.0%</td><td>2025 ROC</td><td>42.29%</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>NA</td><td>70.9%</td><td>45.8%</td><td>40.3%</td><td><b>Average</b></td><td><b>41.91%</b></td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>Industry Median</td><td>20.70%</td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td><b>TSM/Industry Median</b></td><td><b>2.02</b></td></tr><tr><td>Annualized Growth</td><td>-0.47%</td><td>1.10%</td><td>1.61%</td><td>0.83%</td><td><b>Vs S&amp;P</b></td><td><b>2.87</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Growth (Ignoring Pandemic)</b></td><td><b>26.32%</b></td><td><b>1.20%</b></td><td><b>2.87%</b></td><td><b>1.76%</b></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>TSM's industry-leading profitability is expected to keep improving over time due to its incredible economies of scale.</p><ul><li>return on capital = annual pre-tax profit/all the money it takes to run the business</li><li>Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness</li></ul><p>Returns on capital are expected to remain stable at 2X its industry peers and 3X that of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-1652093866093717.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</p><p></p><p>TSM's ROC has been growing at nearly 5% per year for the last 24 years confirming its wide and stable moat.</p><p>And improving profitability is despite some very impressive growth spending.</p><h2>Reason Three: Strong Growth Prospects For Years To Come</h2><p>We've already seen how semiconductors are a huge and steadily growing industry, one that TSM dominates. That's thanks to its industry-leading growth spending.</p><h4>TSM Growth Spending Consensus Forecast</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Year</td><td>SG&amp;A (Selling, General, Administrative)</td><td>R&amp;D</td><td>Capex</td><td>Total Growth Spending</td><td>Sales</td><td>Growth Spending/Sales</td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>$1,247</td><td>$3,915</td><td>$18,096</td><td>$23,258</td><td>$47,890</td><td>48.57%</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>$1,610</td><td>$4,513</td><td>$30,000</td><td>$36,123</td><td>$57,430</td><td>62.90%</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>$1,950</td><td>$5,360</td><td>$36,726</td><td>$44,036</td><td>$72,051</td><td>61.12%</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>$2,258</td><td>$6,079</td><td>$38,419</td><td>$46,756</td><td>$82,934</td><td>56.38%</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>$3,416</td><td>$6,225</td><td>$40,675</td><td>$50,316</td><td>$97,216</td><td>51.76%</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>$109,678</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td><td><b>28.65%</b></td><td><b>12.29%</b></td><td><b>22.44%</b></td><td><b>21.28%</b></td><td>18.03%</td><td>1.60%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Spending 2022 To 2024</b></td><td><b>$7,624</b></td><td><b>$17,664</b></td><td><b>$115,820</b></td><td><b>$141,108</b></td><td>$361,879</td><td>NA</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>TSM spent $36 billion on growth in 2021 and that's expected to rise to $50.3 billion by 2024.</p><p>TSM's growth spending is growing at 22% per year, and analysts expect them to spend $141 billion on growth over the next three years.</p><ul><li>almost 3X what the US government is investing in chip production</li></ul><h4>TSM Medium-Term Growth Consensus Forecast</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Sales</b></td><td><b>Free Cash Flow</b></td><td><b>EBITDA</b></td><td><b>EBIT (Operating Income)</b></td><td><b>Net Income</b></td></tr><tr><td>2020</td><td>$47,890</td><td>$11,298</td><td>$32,129</td><td>$20,267</td><td>$18,519</td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>$57,430</td><td>$6,597</td><td>$38,797</td><td>$23,515</td><td>$21,582</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>$72,051</td><td>$5,310</td><td>$49,067</td><td>$32,825</td><td>$29,523</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>$82,934</td><td>$12,550</td><td>$57,244</td><td>$36,278</td><td>$32,584</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>$97,216</td><td>$22,509</td><td>$67,769</td><td>$42,288</td><td>$37,867</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>$109,678</td><td>NA</td><td>$77,723</td><td>$50,283</td><td>$44,196</td></tr><tr><td>Annualized Growth</td><td>18.03%</td><td>18.81%</td><td>19.32%</td><td>19.93%</td><td>19.00%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Growth (Ignoring Pandemic)</b></td><td><b>17.56%</b></td><td><b>50.55%</b></td><td><b>18.97%</b></td><td><b>20.93%</b></td><td><b>19.63%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>TSM is growing like a weed despite being the world's largest chip maker.</p><h4>TSM Divided Potential Consensus Forecast</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Dividend Consensus</b></td><td><b>EPS/Share Consensus</b></td><td><b>EPS Payout Ratio</b></td><td><b>Retained (Post-Dividend) Earnings</b></td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>$2.20</td><td>$5.70</td><td>38.6%</td><td>$18,151</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>$2.25</td><td>$6.27</td><td>35.9%</td><td>$20,848</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>$2.53</td><td>$7.30</td><td>34.7%</td><td>$24,737</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total 2022 Through 2024</b></td><td><b>$6.98</b></td><td><b>$19.27</b></td><td><b>36.2%</b></td><td><b>$63,735.94</b></td></tr><tr><td><i>Annualized Rate</i></td><td><i>7.24%</i></td><td><i>13.17%</i></td><td>-5.24%</td><td>16.74%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>Rating agencies consider 50% a safe payout ratio and TSM's is expected to be about 36% over the next three years.</p><p>Allowing TSM to retain about $64 billion in post-dividend profit.</p><ul><li>enough to buyback 14% of its stock or nearly 5% per year at current valuations</li></ul><p>TSM tends to only buy back enough stock to offset stock-based compensation.</p><h4>TSM Long-Term Growth Outlook</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520949194739633.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"101\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</p><p></p><ul><li>20.2% to 23.6% CAGR consensus range (five sources)</li><li>20.7% median growth consensus from all 50 analysts</li></ul><p>How accurate are analysts at forecasting TSM's growth over time?</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-16520959408676734.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/9/47572571-165209612418048.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p></p><p>Smoothing for outliers historical margins of error are 15% to the upside and 10% to the downside.</p><ul><li>18% to 28% CAGR historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range</li><li>70% statistical probability that TSM grows at 18% to 28% over time</li></ul><p>TSM's historical growth rates over the last 20 years have ranged from 12.5% to 37%.</p><p>Analysts expect growth similar to the last 20 years (22.5%) and the company has the growth runway to deliver on that.</p><h2>Reason Four: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price</h2><p>For the last 20 years, billions of investors have, outside of bear markets and bubbles, paid 17X to 20X earnings for TSM.</p><ul><li>91% probability that TSM is worth approximately 18.5X earnings</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Historical Fair Value Multiples (10-years)</b></td><td><b>2021</b></td><td><b>2022</b></td><td><b>2023</b></td><td><b>2024</b></td><td><p><b>12-Month Forward Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Earnings</td><td>18.45</td><td>$76.75</td><td>$104.98</td><td>$115.50</td><td>$134.69</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td></td><td>$76.75</td><td>$104.98</td><td>$115.50</td><td>$134.69</td><td><b>$108.82</b></td></tr><tr><td>Current Price</td><td>$90.34</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td><p>Discount To Fair Value</p></td><td></td><td>-17.70%</td><td>13.95%</td><td>21.78%</td><td>32.92%</td><td><b>16.98%</b></td></tr><tr><td><p>Upside To Fair Value (NOT Including Dividends)</p></td><td></td><td>-15.04%</td><td>16.21%</td><td>27.85%</td><td>49.09%</td><td><b>20.46% (23% including dividend)</b></td></tr><tr><td>2022 EPS</td><td>2023 EPS</td><td>2022 Weighted EPS</td><td>2023 Weighted EPS</td><td>12-Month Forward EPS</td><td><b>12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PE</b></td><td><p><b>Current Forward PE</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>$5.69</td><td>$6.26</td><td>$3.61</td><td>$2.29</td><td>$5.90</td><td><b>18.5</b></td><td><b>15.3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>TSM is historically worth 18.5X earnings and today trades at just 15.3X.</p><ul><li>9.2X cash-adjusted earnings</li><li>a bargain by even private equity standards</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><p><b>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</b></p></td><td><p><b>Morningstar Fair Value Estimate</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>$147.58 (23.6 PE)</td><td>$171.00 (29 PE)</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>Discount To Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)</b></p></td><td><p><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>38.79%</td><td>47.17%</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>Upside To Price Target (Not Including Dividend)</b></p></td><td><p><b>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividend)</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>63.36%</td><td>89.28%</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>12-Month Median Total Return Price (Including Dividend)</b></p></td><td><p><b>Fair Value + 12-Month Dividend</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>$149.56</td><td>$172.98</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>Discount To Total Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)</b></p></td><td><p><b>Discount To Fair Value + 12-Month Dividend</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>39.60%</td><td>47.77%</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>Upside To Price Target ( Including Dividend)</b></p></td><td><p><b>Upside To Fair Value + Dividend</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>65.55%</td><td>91.47%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Analysts are almost certainly too bullish on TSM, expecting a return to 23.5X earnings within a year.</p><p>Morningstar's 29 fair value PE is 91% statistically likely to be overly bullish.</p><ul><li>peak PE before the bear market began</li></ul><p>But even with reasonable fair value estimates, TSM offers a 21% upside over 12-months.</p><p>Of course, I don't care about the 12-month return potential, but whether or not the current margin of safety sufficiently compensates you for the risk profile.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Margin Of Safety For Medium-Risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN quality companies</b></td><td><b>2022 Price</b></td><td><b>2023 Price</b></td><td><p><b>12-Month Forward Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td><td>0%</td><td>$104.98</td><td>$115.50</td><td>$108.82</td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Good Buy</td><td>5%</td><td>$99.73</td><td>$109.72</td><td>$103.38</td></tr><tr><td><b>Potentially Strong Buy</b></td><td><b>15%</b></td><td><b>$89.23</b></td><td><b>$98.17</b></td><td><b>$92.50</b></td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td><td>25%</td><td>$74.80</td><td>$86.62</td><td>$81.62</td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td><td>35%</td><td>$68.24</td><td>$75.07</td><td>$70.73</td></tr><tr><td>Currently</td><td>$90.34</td><td>13.95%</td><td>21.78%</td><td><b>16.98%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td><td></td><td>16.21%</td><td>27.85%</td><td>20.46%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>For anyone comfortable with its risk profile, TSM is a potentially strong buy.</p><h2>Risk Profile: Why Taiwan Semi Isn't Right For Everyone</h2><p>There are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.</p><h4>What Could Cause TSM's Investment Thesis To Break</h4><ul><li>safety falls to 40% or less</li><li>balance sheet collapses (highly unlikely, possibly if China invades Taiwan)</li><li><b>growth outlook falls to less than 8.8% for seven years</b></li><li>TSM's role in my portfolio is to deliver long-term 10+% returns with minimal fundamental risk</li></ul><p>How long it takes for a company's investment thesis to break depends on the quality of the company.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Quality</b></td><td><p><b>Years For The Thesis To Break Entirely</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Below-Average</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Blue-Chip</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>SWAN</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Super SWAN</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td><b>Ultra SWAN</b></td><td><b>7</b></td></tr><tr><td>100% Quality Companies (LOW and MA)</td><td>8</td></tr></tbody></table><p>These are my personal rule of thumb for when to sell a stock if the investment thesis has broken.</p><p>TSM is highly unlikely to suffer such catastrophic declines in fundamentals.</p><h4>TSM Risk Profile Summary</h4><ul><li>economic cyclicality risk (smaller than most chip makers, no 20+% EPS declines in the last decade)</li><li>customer concentration risk (50% of sales from smartphones, mostly Apple and Samsung, 25% of sales from Apple)</li><li>talent retention risk (tightest job market in over 50 years)</li><li>supply chain disruption risk</li><li>currency risk (relatively limited)</li><li>China invasion risk (why TSM is medium-risk despite stellar fundamentals)</li><li>succession risk (CEO is over 65 years old)</li></ul><p>How do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.</p><h2>Long-Term Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk</h2><ul><li>see the risk section of this video to get an in-depth view (and link to two reports) of how DK and big institutions measure long-term risk management by companies</li></ul><h4>TSM Long-Term Risk Management Consensus </h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>100.0%</td><td><p>AAA, Industry Leader, Positive Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>98.4%</td><td><p>13.1/100 low-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>96.6%</td><td>Excellent</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>87.0%</td><td><p>Very Good, Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>50.0%</td><td>Average, Stable Trend</td></tr><tr><td><i>Morningstar Global Percentile (All 15,000 Rated Companies)</i></td><td><i>94.8%</i></td><td><i>Exceptional</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>88%</b></td><td><p><b>Low-Risk, Very Good (Bordering On Exceptional) Risk-Management, Stable Trend,</b></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, S&amp;P, FactSet)</i></p><h4>TSM's Long-Term Risk Management Is The 18th Best In The Master List (96th Percentile)</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Classification</b></td><td><b>Average Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Risk-Management Rating</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P Global (SPGI) #1 Risk Management In The Master List</td><td>94</td><td>Exceptional</td></tr><tr><td><b>Taiwan Semi</b></td><td><b>88</b></td><td><b>Very Good-Bordering On Exceptional</b></td></tr><tr><td>Strong ESG Stocks</td><td>78</td><td><p>Good - Bordering On Very Good</p></td></tr><tr><td>Foreign Dividend Stocks</td><td>75</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td><b>Ultra SWANs</b></td><td><b>71</b></td><td><b>Good</b></td></tr><tr><td>Low Volatility Stocks</td><td>68</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td><b>Dividend Aristocrats</b></td><td><b>67</b></td><td><b>Above-Average</b></td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Kings</td><td>63</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td><b>Master List average</b></td><td><b>62</b></td><td><b>Above-Average</b></td></tr><tr><td>Hyper-Growth stocks</td><td>61</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Monthly Dividend Stocks</td><td>60</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Champions</td><td>57</td><td>Average</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal)</i></p><p>TSM's risk-management consensus is in the top 4% of the world's highest quality companies and similar to that of such other blue-chips as</p><ul><li>Allianz SE (OTCPK:ALIZY)</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a> (MMM) - dividend king</li><li>Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)</li><li>Texas Instruments (TXN)</li><li>Microsoft (MSFT)</li><li>NVIDIA (NVDA)</li><li>S&amp;P Global (SPGI) - dividend aristocrat</li></ul><p>The bottom line is that all companies have risks, and TSM is very good, bordering on exceptional, at managing theirs.</p><h2>How We Monitor TSM's Risk Profile</h2><ul><li>38 analysts</li><li>2 credit rating agencies</li><li>6 total risk rating agencies</li><li>44 experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than management</li></ul><blockquote>When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?\" - John Maynard Keynes</blockquote><p>There are no sacred cows at iREIT or Dividend Kings. Wherever the fundamentals lead we always follow. That's the essence of disciplined financial science, the math behind retiring rich and staying rich in retirement.</p><h2>Bottom Line: One Of The World's Best Growth Stocks Is A Strong Buy</h2><p>I know it seems scary right now, with intense market volatility that's shocking to many.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/11/47572571-16522802583849907.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Charlie Bilello</p><p></p><p>It's the 3rd worst start to the year in US history, surpassed only by the Great Depression.</p><p>But let me be very clear... we're not in a depression, not even a recession.</p><p>Economic growth is slowing but for now, the economic data says we're likely at least nine months from a recession.</p><p>Yet many growth stocks have been hammered as we were in a depression.</p><p>Taiwan Semi trades at just 9.2X cash-adjusted earnings, a bargain by even private equity standards.</p><p>How reasonable is it to pay 9.2X for the world's most dominant chip maker?</p><p>That's growing at almost 21%?</p><p>And yielding a very safe 2.2% that is 3X what the Nasdaq offers.</p><ul><li>superior quality to the Nasdaq</li><li>faster growth than the Nasdaq</li><li>3X the much safer yield than the Nasdaq</li><li>far better valuation than the Nasdaq</li><li>about 8% better long-term return potential than the Nasdaq</li></ul><p>If you're a dividend growth investor looking for a world-class quality blue-chip in this bear market, consider Taiwan Semi.</p><p>If you're a pure growth investor who only cares about maximizing long-term returns, consider Taiwan Semi.</p><p>If you're a pure safety and quality-focused investor looking to sleep well at night in all market and economic conditions, consider Taiwan Semi.</p><p>If you're a value investor looking to buy a wonderful company at a wonderful price, consider Taiwan Semi.</p><p>If you're an investor tired of praying for luck on Wall Street, and that wants to make their own luck, consider Taiwan Semi.</p><blockquote>Fortunes are made by buying right and holding on.\" - Tom Phelps</blockquote><p>Taiwan Semi is a wonderful example of how smart long-term investors can harness market volatility to make their dreams come true.</p><p>That's why I just bought some for my retirement portfolio and you might want to do the same.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor: One Of The World's Greatest Dividend Growth Stocks Is On Sale</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor: One Of The World's Greatest Dividend Growth Stocks Is On Sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-12 05:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510270-taiwan-semiconductor-one-of-the-worlds-greatest-dividend-growth-stocks-is-on-sale><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>tiero/iStock via Getty Images2022 has been a brutal year for most investors, especially tech investors.YchartsAccording to Bloomberg, 50% of the Nasdaq Composite (2,500 companies) is down 50+%, 22% is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510270-taiwan-semiconductor-one-of-the-worlds-greatest-dividend-growth-stocks-is-on-sale\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4117":"多元化保险","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BNS":"丰业银行","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","TXN":"德州仪器","MMM":"3M","MSFT":"微软","SPGI":"标普全球","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电","ALIZY":"Allianz SE","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4206":"工业集团企业","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510270-taiwan-semiconductor-one-of-the-worlds-greatest-dividend-growth-stocks-is-on-sale","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2234963455","content_text":"tiero/iStock via Getty Images2022 has been a brutal year for most investors, especially tech investors.YchartsAccording to Bloomberg, 50% of the Nasdaq Composite (2,500 companies) is down 50+%, 22% is down 75+%, and 5% is down 90+%.The more speculative the company, the worse the carnage.Charlie BilelloAccording to JPMorgan 44% of US companies since 1980 crashed over 70% and never recovered.JPMorgan Asset ManagementThis showcases the importance of focusing on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always.\"In order to win the game, first you must not lose it.\" - Chuck NollToday I wanted to highlight Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), one of the world's safest and highest quality hyper-growth blue-chips.Let me show you the four reasons why I recently recommended them for DK members and bought some for my retirement portfolio.More importantly, I'll show you why this might be a hyper-growth blue-chip bargain you might want to add to your diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio.Reason One: Taiwan Semi Is The Complete PackageBottom line up front, TSM has a 20% dividend tax withholding.What You Need To Know About Foreign Dividend Withholding TaxesTSM is a Taiwanese company so US investors face 20% dividend withholding taxes on their sharesa tax credit recoups this if you fill out the paperwork and own them in taxable accountsWhy go through this trouble to own TSM?Reasons To Potentially Buy TSM Today97% quality medium-risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN hyper-growth chip maker96% dividend safety score0.5% average recession cut risk1.2% severe recession cut risk2.2% very safe yield6-year dividend growth streak (no cuts since it began paying one in 2003)\"TSMC intends to maintain a sustainable quarterly cash dividend and to distribute the cash dividend each year at a level not lower than the year before.\" - Investor relations17% conservatively undervalued (potential strong buy)Fair Value: $108.81 (18.5X earnings)15.5X forward earnings vs 17X to 20X historical9.2X cash-adjusted earningsAA- stable outlook credit rating =0.55% 30-year bankruptcy risk88th industry percentile risk management consensus = very good bordering exceptional18% to 28% CAGR margin-of-error growth consensus range20.7% CAGR median growth consensus5-year consensus total return potential: 16% to 24% CAGRbase-case 5-year consensus return potential: 19% CAGR (4X S&P consensus)consensus 12-month total return forecast: 63% (overly bullish)Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Returns: 21% CAGRTSM is in a 35% bear market not justified by its strong fundamentals.Its peak 30X PE made it approximately 42% overvalued in mid-January 2022TSM Investment Thesis Is IntactMetric2021 Growth Consensus2022 Growth Consensus2023 Growth Consensus2024 Growth Consensus2025 Growth ConsensusSales25%27%15%18%13%Dividend10%12%2%12%NAEPS17%37%9%17%17%Operating Cash Flow41%16%13%24%NAFree Cash Flow-42%-19%122%83%NAEBITDA26%29%17%18%NAEBIT (operating income)21%41%10%17%NA(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)TSM's growth thesis remains firmly intact.TSM Rolling Returns Since November 1997(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)TSM has been a very consistent market-beater over the last 24 years, with 14% to 15% average rolling returns.from bear market bottoms returns as strong as 31% annually over the next 10 years14X return over a decadeTSM 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)If TSM grows as analysts expect by 2024 it could deliver 54% total returns, or 18% annually.Buffett-like returns from an anti-bubble blue-chip bargain hiding in plain sightTSM 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)By 2027 if TSM grows as expected (19.1% CAGR) and returns to historical fair value, it could deliver 168% total returns or 19% annually.4X the S&P 500 consensusBuffett-like return potentialInvestment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnTaiwan Semiconductor2.2%20.70%22.9%16.0%13.5%5.33.54Nasdaq (Growth)0.9%14.3%15.2%10.6%8.1%8.92.17Dividend Aristocrats2.2%8.9%11.1%7.8%5.2%13.81.66S&P 5001.6%8.5%10.1%7.1%4.5%15.91.56(Sources: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)analysts expect TSM to beat almost all investment strategies on Wall Street in the long-termincluding the Nasdaq, aristocrats, and S&P 500TSM Total Returns Since November 1997(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)TSM has delivered 23X inflation-adjusted returns since Nov 1997, about 6X better than the S&P 500.What do analysts expect in the future?Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Potential: $1,000 Initial InvestmentTime Frame (Years)7.4% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P Consensus8.7% Inflation-Adjusted Aristocrat Consensus20.4% CAGR Inflation-AdjustedTSM ConsensusDifference Between Inflation Adjusted TSM Consensus And S&P Consensus5$1,432.29$1,514.08$2,524.82$1,092.5310$2,051.47$2,292.44$6,374.72$4,323.2515$2,938.30$3,470.93$16,095.02$13,156.7220$4,208.51$5,255.26$40,637.02$36,428.5125$6,027.82$7,956.89$102,601.18$96,573.3630$8,633.61$12,047.36$259,049.55$250,415.93(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)Even if TSM only grows as expected over the next 10 years, that's a very impressive 6.4X inflation-adjusted consensus potential.Time Frame (Years)Ratio Aristocrats/S&PRatio Inflation-Adjusted TSM Consensus And S&P Consensus51.061.76101.123.11151.185.48201.259.66251.3217.02301.4030.00(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)And beat the S&P 500 by about 3X, possibly more if we have a lost decade for stocks.TSM Investment Decision ScoreDK(Source: DK Automated Investment Decision Tool)For anyone comfortable with its risk profile, TSM is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth Ultra SWANs you can buy today16% discount vs 5% market premium = 21% better valuation0.7% higher and safer yield130% higher long-term return potential than S&P 500 overtimenearly 3X better risk-adjusted expected return over the next five yearsReason Two: World-Class Quality You Can Trust In All Market ConditionsThere are many ways to measure safety and quality and I factor in pretty much all of them.The Dividend Kings' overall quality scores are based on a 248-point model that includes:Dividend safetyBalance sheet strengthCredit ratingsCredit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk dataShort and long-term bankruptcy riskAccounting and corporate fraud riskProfitability and business modelGrowth consensus estimatesManagement growth guidanceHistorical earnings growth ratesHistorical cash flow growth ratesHistorical dividend growth ratesHistorical sales growth ratesCost of capitalGF ScoresLong-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&P, Reuters'/Refinitiv, and Just CapitalManagement qualityDividend friendly corporate culture/income dependabilityLong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)Analyst consensus long-term return potentialIn fact, it includes over 1,000 fundamental metrics including the 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelHow do we know that our safety and quality model work well?During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts, the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.And then there's the confirmation that our quality ratings are very accurate.DK Zen Phoenix: Superior Fundamentals Lead To Superior Long-Term ResultsMetricUS Stocks191 Real Money DK Phoenix RecsGreat Recession Dividend Growth-25%0%Pandemic Dividend Growth-1%6%Positive Total Returns Over The Last 10 Years42%99.5% (Greatest Investors In History 60% to 80% Over Time)Lost Money/Went Bankrupt Over The Last 10 Years47%0.5%Outperformed Market Over The Last Decade (290%)36%46%Bankruptcies Over The Last 10 Years11%0%Permanent 70+% Catastrophic Decline Since 198044%0.5%100+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA87%200+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA66%300+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA44%400+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA35%500+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA27%600+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA23%700+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA20%800+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA18%900+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA18%1000+% Total Return Over The Past 10 YearsNA16%Sources: Morningstar, JPMorgan, Seeking AlphaBasically, historical market data confirms that the DK safety and quality model is comprehensive and accurate.How does TSM score on our comprehensive safety and quality models?TSM Dividend SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (161 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%TSM97%0.5%1.20%Risk RatingMedium-Risk (88th industry percentile risk-management consensus) - China invasion riskAA- Stable outlook credit rating 0.55% 30-year bankruptcy risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap RecommendationLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (61% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5TSM96%Exceptional Dependability5Overall QualityTSMFinal ScoreRatingSafety97%5/5 Very SafeBusiness Model100%3/3 Wide, Stable MoatDependability96%5/5 ExceptionalTotal97%13/13 Ultra SWANRisk Rating2/3 Medium Risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyTaiwan Semi Is The 19th Highest Quality Company On The Master List: 96th PercentileTSM isn't just a great company, it's one of the world's best companies, scoring 19th best on the DK Masterlist.How impressive is that?The DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:All dividend championsAll dividend aristocratsAll dividend kingsAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)49 of the world's best growth stocksWhy I Trust Taiwan Semi And So Can YouTaiwan Semi was founded in 1987 and is the world's leading chipmaker.TSM makes over 50% of the world's chips, a dominant position that analysts expect to be maintained in the future.YchartsIn the last year alone TSM spent $35 billion on growth including $30.5 billion in growth capex.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plans to spend $100 billion over the next three years to expand its chip fabrication capacity, a staggering financial commitment to address the booming demand for new technologies.\" - BloombergIt can cost $10 to $20 billion to build a new chip factory and no one on earth can match TSM's growth capabilities.for context, the US government plans to invest $50 billion into increasing US chip capacityTSM plans to spend 2X that much... just through 2024Exceptional Management You can TrustWe rate TSMC's Capital Allocation as Exemplary...TSMC's more stable earnings lead to more consistent dividends. The company has never stopped paying dividends since its first distribution in 2004 (for 2003 earnings) and has never reduced dividends. In fact, TSMC's annual dividend per share has increased for six consecutive years with a payout ratio at around 50%, which is a feat given the industry's cyclicality and heavy investments needed. The company has two main shareholder return policies. The first is to at least maintain, if not increase, dividend per share every year. The second is to prioritize dividends over share repurchases.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)TSM is a very dividend-friendly company, with management sticking to its knitting and avoiding complex M&A deals.First-quarter revenue increased 12.1% sequentially at NT terms or 11.6% in U.S. dollar terms as our first quarter business was supported by strong HPC and automotive-related demand. First-quarter gross margin increased 2.9 percentage points sequentially to 55.6%, mainly as we continue to sell our value and improve costs. Operating margin increased 3.9 percentage points sequentially to 45.6%, primarily due to lower vaccine donation expenses as compared to the fourth quarter.\" - CEO, Q1 conference callThanks to the global chip shortage TSM is seeing strong pricing power and its margins are expanding, along with double-digit sales growth.Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 20% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while 7-nanometer accounted for 30%. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 50% of wafer revenue.\" - CEOTSM is the industry leader in advanced chips, meaning smaller, more powerful, and more energy-efficient.TSM is planning on rolling out 3-nm chip architecture in 2023.TSM is on track for 2-nm chips in 2025.about 10X the energy-adjusted performance of today's chips(Source: BlueWeave Consulting)BlueWave consulting estimates that by 2028 the global chip market will be $820 per year.TSM 2021 sales were $57.4 billionanalysts expect that to double to $110 billion by 2025TSM Credit RatingsRating AgencyCredit Rating30-Year Default/Bankruptcy RiskChance of Losing 100% Of Your Investment 1 InS&PAA- Stable Outlook0.55%181.8Moody'sAa3 (AA- equivalent) Stable0.55%181.8ConsensusAA- Stable Outlook0.55%181.8(Source: S&P, Moody's)Rating agencies estimate a 0.55% fundamental risk for TSM, meaning a 1 in 182 chance of investors losing all their money in the next 30 years.TSM Leverage Consensus ForecastYearDebt/EBITDANet Debt/EBITDA (1.5 Or Less Safe According To Credit Rating Agencies)Interest Coverage (8+ Safe)20200.40-0.46302.4920210.68-0.32146.9720220.40-0.21169.2020230.34-0.22168.7320240.40-0.37128.932025NA-0.58NAAnnualized Change0.07%4.54%-19.20%(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)TSM has more cash than debt and is covering its interest costs by over 100X.TSM Balance Sheet Consensus ForecastYearTotal Debt (Millions)CashNet Debt (Millions)Interest Cost (Millions)EBITDA (Millions)Operating Income (Millions)2020$12,898$23,607-$14,805$67$32,129$20,2672021$26,229$38,529-$12,301$160$38,797$23,5152022$19,740$36,135-$10,318$194$49,067$32,8252023$19,740$37,121-$12,794$215$57,244$36,2782024$27,281$47,663-$25,276$328$67,769$42,2882025NANA-$44,724NA$77,723$50,283Annualized Growth20.60%19.20%24.75%48.75%19.32%19.93%(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)TSM's net cash is growing at 25% per year, faster than its cash flows which are growing at 20%.TSM Bond Profile$40 billion in liquiditywell-staggered bond maturities (no issues refinancing maturing debt)100% unsecured bonds (maximum financial flexibility)bond investors are so confident in TSM's business they are willing to lend to it at under 2%average borrowing costs 1.28%-0.3% inflation-adjusted borrowing costs vs 23.8% cash returns on invested capitalTSM GF Score: The Newest Addition To The DK Safety And Quality ModelThe GF Score is a ranking system that has been found to be closely correlated to the long-term performances of stocks by backtesting from 2006 to 2021.\" - GurufocusGF Score takes five key aspects into consideration. They are:Financial StrengthProfitabilityGrowthValuationMomentum(Source: Gurufocus Premium)TSM's near-perfect 97/100 GF score confirms it's an industry leader in everything that matters.industry-leading profitabilityindustry-leading financial strengthindustry-leading growthindustry-leading valueTSM Profitability: Wall Street's Favorite Quality Proxy(Source: Gurufocus Premium)Historical profitability is in the top 10% of peers and in recent years it's become even better.TSM Trailing 12-Month Profitability Vs PeersMetricIndustry PercentileMajor Chip Makers More Profitable Than TSM (Out Of 887)Gross Margins82.95151Operating Margin97.3723Net Margin96.4531Return On Equity88.24104Return On Assets88.50102Returns On Invested Capital82.98151Return On Capital67.16291Return On Capital Employed84.04142Average86.39121(Source: Gurufocus Premium)In the last year, TSM's profitability was in the top 14% of its peers.TSM Profit Margin Consensus ForecastYearFCF MarginEBITDA MarginEBIT (Operating) MarginNet MarginReturn On Capital ExpansionReturn On Capital Forecast202023.6%67.1%42.3%38.7%1.12202111.5%67.6%40.9%37.6%TTM ROC37.09%20227.4%68.1%45.6%41.0%Latest ROC37.77%202315.1%69.0%43.7%39.3%2025 ROC41.53%202423.2%69.7%43.5%39.0%2025 ROC42.29%2025NA70.9%45.8%40.3%Average41.91%2026NANANANAIndustry Median20.70%2027NANANANATSM/Industry Median2.02Annualized Growth-0.47%1.10%1.61%0.83%Vs S&P2.87Annualized Growth (Ignoring Pandemic)26.32%1.20%2.87%1.76%(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)TSM's industry-leading profitability is expected to keep improving over time due to its incredible economies of scale.return on capital = annual pre-tax profit/all the money it takes to run the businessJoel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatinessReturns on capital are expected to remain stable at 2X its industry peers and 3X that of the S&P 500.(Source: Gurufocus Premium)TSM's ROC has been growing at nearly 5% per year for the last 24 years confirming its wide and stable moat.And improving profitability is despite some very impressive growth spending.Reason Three: Strong Growth Prospects For Years To ComeWe've already seen how semiconductors are a huge and steadily growing industry, one that TSM dominates. That's thanks to its industry-leading growth spending.TSM Growth Spending Consensus ForecastYearSG&A (Selling, General, Administrative)R&DCapexTotal Growth SpendingSalesGrowth Spending/Sales2020$1,247$3,915$18,096$23,258$47,89048.57%2021$1,610$4,513$30,000$36,123$57,43062.90%2022$1,950$5,360$36,726$44,036$72,05161.12%2023$2,258$6,079$38,419$46,756$82,93456.38%2024$3,416$6,225$40,675$50,316$97,21651.76%2025NANANANA$109,6780.00%Annualized Growth28.65%12.29%22.44%21.28%18.03%1.60%Total Spending 2022 To 2024$7,624$17,664$115,820$141,108$361,879NA(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)TSM spent $36 billion on growth in 2021 and that's expected to rise to $50.3 billion by 2024.TSM's growth spending is growing at 22% per year, and analysts expect them to spend $141 billion on growth over the next three years.almost 3X what the US government is investing in chip productionTSM Medium-Term Growth Consensus ForecastYearSalesFree Cash FlowEBITDAEBIT (Operating Income)Net Income2020$47,890$11,298$32,129$20,267$18,5192021$57,430$6,597$38,797$23,515$21,5822022$72,051$5,310$49,067$32,825$29,5232023$82,934$12,550$57,244$36,278$32,5842024$97,216$22,509$67,769$42,288$37,8672025$109,678NA$77,723$50,283$44,196Annualized Growth18.03%18.81%19.32%19.93%19.00%Annualized Growth (Ignoring Pandemic)17.56%50.55%18.97%20.93%19.63%(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)TSM is growing like a weed despite being the world's largest chip maker.TSM Divided Potential Consensus ForecastYearDividend ConsensusEPS/Share ConsensusEPS Payout RatioRetained (Post-Dividend) Earnings2022$2.20$5.7038.6%$18,1512023$2.25$6.2735.9%$20,8482024$2.53$7.3034.7%$24,737Total 2022 Through 2024$6.98$19.2736.2%$63,735.94Annualized Rate7.24%13.17%-5.24%16.74%(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)Rating agencies consider 50% a safe payout ratio and TSM's is expected to be about 36% over the next three years.Allowing TSM to retain about $64 billion in post-dividend profit.enough to buyback 14% of its stock or nearly 5% per year at current valuationsTSM tends to only buy back enough stock to offset stock-based compensation.TSM Long-Term Growth Outlook(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)20.2% to 23.6% CAGR consensus range (five sources)20.7% median growth consensus from all 50 analystsHow accurate are analysts at forecasting TSM's growth over time?FAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetSmoothing for outliers historical margins of error are 15% to the upside and 10% to the downside.18% to 28% CAGR historical margin-of-error adjusted growth consensus range70% statistical probability that TSM grows at 18% to 28% over timeTSM's historical growth rates over the last 20 years have ranged from 12.5% to 37%.Analysts expect growth similar to the last 20 years (22.5%) and the company has the growth runway to deliver on that.Reason Four: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful PriceFor the last 20 years, billions of investors have, outside of bear markets and bubbles, paid 17X to 20X earnings for TSM.91% probability that TSM is worth approximately 18.5X earningsMetricHistorical Fair Value Multiples (10-years)202120222023202412-Month Forward Fair ValueEarnings18.45$76.75$104.98$115.50$134.69Average$76.75$104.98$115.50$134.69$108.82Current Price$90.34Discount To Fair Value-17.70%13.95%21.78%32.92%16.98%Upside To Fair Value (NOT Including Dividends)-15.04%16.21%27.85%49.09%20.46% (23% including dividend)2022 EPS2023 EPS2022 Weighted EPS2023 Weighted EPS12-Month Forward EPS12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PECurrent Forward PE$5.69$6.26$3.61$2.29$5.9018.515.3TSM is historically worth 18.5X earnings and today trades at just 15.3X.9.2X cash-adjusted earningsa bargain by even private equity standardsAnalyst Median 12-Month Price TargetMorningstar Fair Value Estimate$147.58 (23.6 PE)$171.00 (29 PE)Discount To Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)Discount To Fair Value38.79%47.17%Upside To Price Target (Not Including Dividend)Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividend)63.36%89.28%12-Month Median Total Return Price (Including Dividend)Fair Value + 12-Month Dividend$149.56$172.98Discount To Total Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)Discount To Fair Value + 12-Month Dividend39.60%47.77%Upside To Price Target ( Including Dividend)Upside To Fair Value + Dividend65.55%91.47%Analysts are almost certainly too bullish on TSM, expecting a return to 23.5X earnings within a year.Morningstar's 29 fair value PE is 91% statistically likely to be overly bullish.peak PE before the bear market beganBut even with reasonable fair value estimates, TSM offers a 21% upside over 12-months.Of course, I don't care about the 12-month return potential, but whether or not the current margin of safety sufficiently compensates you for the risk profile.RatingMargin Of Safety For Medium-Risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN quality companies2022 Price2023 Price12-Month Forward Fair ValuePotentially Reasonable Buy0%$104.98$115.50$108.82Potentially Good Buy5%$99.73$109.72$103.38Potentially Strong Buy15%$89.23$98.17$92.50Potentially Very Strong Buy25%$74.80$86.62$81.62Potentially Ultra-Value Buy35%$68.24$75.07$70.73Currently$90.3413.95%21.78%16.98%Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)16.21%27.85%20.46%For anyone comfortable with its risk profile, TSM is a potentially strong buy.Risk Profile: Why Taiwan Semi Isn't Right For EveryoneThere are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.What Could Cause TSM's Investment Thesis To Breaksafety falls to 40% or lessbalance sheet collapses (highly unlikely, possibly if China invades Taiwan)growth outlook falls to less than 8.8% for seven yearsTSM's role in my portfolio is to deliver long-term 10+% returns with minimal fundamental riskHow long it takes for a company's investment thesis to break depends on the quality of the company.QualityYears For The Thesis To Break EntirelyBelow-Average1Average2Above-Average3Blue-Chip4SWAN5Super SWAN6Ultra SWAN7100% Quality Companies (LOW and MA)8These are my personal rule of thumb for when to sell a stock if the investment thesis has broken.TSM is highly unlikely to suffer such catastrophic declines in fundamentals.TSM Risk Profile Summaryeconomic cyclicality risk (smaller than most chip makers, no 20+% EPS declines in the last decade)customer concentration risk (50% of sales from smartphones, mostly Apple and Samsung, 25% of sales from Apple)talent retention risk (tightest job market in over 50 years)supply chain disruption riskcurrency risk (relatively limited)China invasion risk (why TSM is medium-risk despite stellar fundamentals)succession risk (CEO is over 65 years old)How do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.Long-Term Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risksee the risk section of this video to get an in-depth view (and link to two reports) of how DK and big institutions measure long-term risk management by companiesTSM Long-Term Risk Management Consensus Rating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model100.0%AAA, Industry Leader, Positive TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model98.4%13.1/100 low-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model96.6%ExcellentS&P 1,000+ Metric Model87.0%Very Good, Stable TrendFactSet50.0%Average, Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile (All 15,000 Rated Companies)94.8%ExceptionalConsensus88%Low-Risk, Very Good (Bordering On Exceptional) Risk-Management, Stable Trend,(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, FactSet)TSM's Long-Term Risk Management Is The 18th Best In The Master List (96th Percentile)ClassificationAverage Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry PercentileRisk-Management RatingS&P Global (SPGI) #1 Risk Management In The Master List94ExceptionalTaiwan Semi88Very Good-Bordering On ExceptionalStrong ESG Stocks78Good - Bordering On Very GoodForeign Dividend Stocks75GoodUltra SWANs71GoodLow Volatility Stocks68Above-AverageDividend Aristocrats67Above-AverageDividend Kings63Above-AverageMaster List average62Above-AverageHyper-Growth stocks61Above-AverageMonthly Dividend Stocks60Above-AverageDividend Champions57Average(Source: DK Research Terminal)TSM's risk-management consensus is in the top 4% of the world's highest quality companies and similar to that of such other blue-chips asAllianz SE (OTCPK:ALIZY)3M (MMM) - dividend kingBank of Nova Scotia (BNS)Texas Instruments (TXN)Microsoft (MSFT)NVIDIA (NVDA)S&P Global (SPGI) - dividend aristocratThe bottom line is that all companies have risks, and TSM is very good, bordering on exceptional, at managing theirs.How We Monitor TSM's Risk Profile38 analysts2 credit rating agencies6 total risk rating agencies44 experts who collectively know this business better than anyone other than managementWhen the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?\" - John Maynard KeynesThere are no sacred cows at iREIT or Dividend Kings. Wherever the fundamentals lead we always follow. That's the essence of disciplined financial science, the math behind retiring rich and staying rich in retirement.Bottom Line: One Of The World's Best Growth Stocks Is A Strong BuyI know it seems scary right now, with intense market volatility that's shocking to many.Charlie BilelloIt's the 3rd worst start to the year in US history, surpassed only by the Great Depression.But let me be very clear... we're not in a depression, not even a recession.Economic growth is slowing but for now, the economic data says we're likely at least nine months from a recession.Yet many growth stocks have been hammered as we were in a depression.Taiwan Semi trades at just 9.2X cash-adjusted earnings, a bargain by even private equity standards.How reasonable is it to pay 9.2X for the world's most dominant chip maker?That's growing at almost 21%?And yielding a very safe 2.2% that is 3X what the Nasdaq offers.superior quality to the Nasdaqfaster growth than the Nasdaq3X the much safer yield than the Nasdaqfar better valuation than the Nasdaqabout 8% better long-term return potential than the NasdaqIf you're a dividend growth investor looking for a world-class quality blue-chip in this bear market, consider Taiwan Semi.If you're a pure growth investor who only cares about maximizing long-term returns, consider Taiwan Semi.If you're a pure safety and quality-focused investor looking to sleep well at night in all market and economic conditions, consider Taiwan Semi.If you're a value investor looking to buy a wonderful company at a wonderful price, consider Taiwan Semi.If you're an investor tired of praying for luck on Wall Street, and that wants to make their own luck, consider Taiwan Semi.Fortunes are made by buying right and holding on.\" - Tom PhelpsTaiwan Semi is a wonderful example of how smart long-term investors can harness market volatility to make their dreams come true.That's why I just bought some for my retirement portfolio and you might want to do the same.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064528934,"gmtCreate":1652347119528,"gmtModify":1676535082421,"author":{"id":"4103087441753890","authorId":"4103087441753890","name":"YFDXVBGB","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103087441753890","authorIdStr":"4103087441753890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Look","listText":"Look","text":"Look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064528934","repostId":"1144745988","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144745988","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652335638,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144745988?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-12 14:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong Stocks Slid on Thursday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144745988","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stocks slid on Thursday, with the Hang Seng technology index down nearly 4%. Tencent, Alib","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hong Kong stocks slid on Thursday, with the Hang Seng technology index down nearly 4%. Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, NetEase, Baidu, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto fell between 1% and 9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2aea95f4d5961ad5cdb1aaa330fb5be\" tg-width=\"377\" tg-height=\"719\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong Stocks Slid on Thursday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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