To The Moon

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.26% and 0.15%, respectively, last week. Major market movers included Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-2.79%), Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-3.99%), P&G (-2.69%), Nike $Nike(NKE)$ (-8.04%), Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (+2.9%), Meta (+5.04%), Exxon (+7.78%), ConocoPhillips (+9.38%), and Salesforce (+4.02%). Key economic events this week include the FOMC minutes and CPI (Thursday), and PPI (Friday). Important earnings reports this week feature Pepsi on Tuesday, Delta on Thursday, and JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock on Friday.  Things You Should Know Before Starting Your We

The S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ has gained 22% through the first three quarters of this year. Historically, there have been 24 instances where the index posted gains of 20% or more by the end of Q3: 87.5% of the time, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in Q4. The average Q4 return was 4.1%. Since 1943, in years with gains of over 20% through Q3, the S&P 500 typically finds its bottom around October 27, with an average drawdown of -2.12%, followed by a rally through December.   Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers, 1 Oct 2024 Conclusion: I remain skeptical of an Oc

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.64% and 1.1%, respectively, last week. Major stock movers: Nvidia (+4.66%), Tesla (+9.32%), Micron (+18.26%), AMD (+5.39%), Caterpillar (+6.04%), Microsoft (-1.67%), Eli Lilly (-4.74%), Amazon (-1.89%), Visa (-3.37%). Key economic data this week: Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday), ADP Non-farm Employment Change (Wednesday), Unemployment Claims and Service PMI (Thursday), and Non-Farm Payroll (Friday). Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an economic conference on Monday.  Things you should know before starting the week: 1) Micron Earnings Beat Sent AI Stocks Higher Last Week Both Q4 2024 earnings results and the Q1 2025 outlook exceeded expectations, indicating strong AI demand moving forward. Micron's earnings often set the tone

China has finally announced a series of substantial stimulus measures to revive its sluggish economy and boost domestic demand.  The policies include: Cutting lending rates, mortgage rates, and banks' required reserve ratios. Lowering the down payment for second home purchases from 20% to a historical low of 15%. Introducing a 500 billion yuan swap program to provide funds, insurers, and brokers with easier access to money for stock purchases, along with a 300 billion yuan loan program offering commercial banks cheap funds for share purchases and buybacks.  Conclusion: The Hang Seng Index may edge toward 22,080 points based on technical analysis. A short squeeze could occur if the index surpasses 19,706 (the May high). Over the past 20 years, the Hang Seng Index has genera

The S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ and Nasdaq-100 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ returned 1.39% and 1.44% last week, respectively. Major market movers included Nvidia (-2.6%), UnitedHealth (-2.91%), Pepsi (-3.48%), Philip Morris (-3.84%), FedEx (-11.08%), Apple (+2.56%), Meta (+7.1%), Amazon (+2.74%), Alphabet-A (+3.89%), and Microsoft (+1.09%). Key economic data this week include Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday, Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, GDP and Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and PCE on Friday. Major earnings this week include Micron on

Summary: The FOMC cuts rates by 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The latest Fed Dot Plot suggests there will be another 2 cuts (50bp) by 2024, followed by 4 more cuts (100bp) in 2025. However, traders are expecting more cuts (3 additional cuts by 2024, followed by 6 more in 2025), according to CME FedWatch.  Conclusion: The Fed’s significant rate cut of 50bp shows its determination to stay ahead of the curve and prevent a hard landing. Market participants now believe the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing at worst. While it looks like stocks are poised to rally, there’s a possibility that investors have already priced in much of the anticipated 2024 and 2025 rate cuts. Investors should be cautious of the election uncertainties t

Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ fell as much as 4% on Monday due to: Speculation of weaker first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15. Shorter delivery lead times: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's waiting time is 21.5 days in the first 72 hours since pre-orders began, compared to 32.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max during the same period last year.  However, I believe it may be too early to conclude that iPhone 16 demand is weak due to the following reasons: The iPhone 15 Pro Max had longer lead times due to a camera lens supply issue. The iPhone 16 Pro Max may have better supply availability this year. AI features are being rolled out gradually, and AI will be unavailable in Chinese and Japanese markets until 2025. Customers may n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 returned 4.06% and 5.96%, respectively, last week. Major market movers included JP Morgan (-3.83%), Berkshire Hathaway (-2.57%), Adobe (-4.71%), Wells Fargo (-2.26%), Exxon Mobil (-1.32%), Amazon (+8.81%), Broadcom (+22.41%), Tesla (+9.28%), Meta (+4.87%), Alphabet (+4.47%), Oracle (+14.26%), and AMD (+13.37%). Important economic events this week include Retail Sales on Tuesday, and the FOMC meeting and Unemployment Claims on Thursday. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Friday, but no changes are expected. Things You Should Know Before Starting Your Week: 1) Election Uncertainties May Continue to Weigh on Stocks in the Coming Weeks Clean energy stocks rose last week, indicating that Wall Street may be betting on Kamala Harr

Many tech stocks (Nasdaq-100 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , ARM $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ , Synopsys $Synopsys(SNPS)$ , Meta $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , and TSMC) are forming classical reversal patterns such as Double Tops and Head & Shoulders. However, fundamentals always take precedence over technical analysis. I see no major fundamental news that would drive stocks toward their technical target prices. I reckon these are bear traps, and eventually, stocks will move higher after the U.S. presidential election on November 5th. However, bulls may only star

Due to the high base effect, most of the Magnificent Seven stocks( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ ,Meta, and Amazon) are expected to report lower year-on-year growth in their operating income over the next two quarters. For example, Nvidia’s operating income year-on-year growth was 690% and 174% in the first two quarters. However, this growth is expected to slow down to +107% and 72% in the final two quarters of the year. I am unsure how much of this slowdown has already been priced into the stocks.  Con