To The Moon

Oil matters to inflation more than almost any other single commodity because it touches everything. Transport costs more, manufacturing costs more, even your electricity bill costs more, because an oil price move flows through to nearly every other price in the economy. Brent oil funds is also the top performer on this entire list, which tells you how large this year’s Middle East supply shock has actually been. The risk cuts both ways. The same headline risk that took this up 104% can reverse just as fast if there is real de-escalation, and futures funds bleed a little to the roll from month to month even when the price goes nowhere. Commodities used to mean opening a separate futures account. Futures are leveraged, and they come with quirks like contango and backwardation, where near-ter

Oil matters to inflation more than almost any other single commodity because it touches everything. Transport costs more, manufacturing costs more, even your electricity bill costs more, because an oil price move flows through to nearly every other price in the economy. BNO is also the top performer on this entire list, which tells you how large this year’s Middle East supply shock has actually been. The risk cuts both ways. The same headline risk that took this up 104% can reverse just as fast if there is real de-escalation, and futures funds bleed a little to the roll from month to month even when the price goes nowhere. Commodities usedlike oil  to mean opening a separate futures account. Futures are leveraged, and they come with quirks like contango and backwardation, where near-t

The rise of AI poses a threat to software stocks. A powerful enough AI can customise a company’s software, or at least call into question the value of standardised software that costs more than an AI subscription and doesn’t fully suit a business’s operating needs. Some companies may switch to AI to disintermediate software altogether, which would mean less revenue for software companies. But the reality is that most software stocks are still reporting revenue growth. That’s because the stock market is forward looking, and prices in the future impact on software fundamentals well in advance. That said, investors may have gotten too pessimistic on software and too optimistic on AI. In July, overleveraged AI bets got unwound and software stocks soared. The proxy VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH

Nvidia expects $108b in Q3 revenue and projects FY28 revenue to grow about 70%. Management explicitly said customer forecasts point to demand that could support roughly doubling again next year, but it’s guiding to only about 70% growth because it doesn’t currently have enough supply to satisfy all that demand. The largest company in the world by market cap, already $5.5T, shouldn’t be growing like a young company. But that’s exactly what Nvidia is doing. It has boomed for three years running, and in the latest quarter, revenue grew 106% and earnings jumped 126%. These are numbers you’d expect from a young, fast growing company, not a megacap. Yet here we are. It’s earnings season, and investors are watching AI-related stocks closely, trying to figure out if the AI trade is alive or dying.

Broadcom is super plugged into the AI value chain. It doesn’t just produce AI chips for companies like Google, it also makes the networking chips needed to move huge volumes of data fast enough for the AI era. Its overall revenue rose 86% to $29.6b, but AI semiconductor revenue exploded 221% to $16.7b. Hock Tan, President and CEO of Broadcom, said, “In Q4 the momentum continues, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $21.7 billion, up 236% year over year.” But in FY28, Broadcom isn’t expecting 200% growth anymore in AI semiconductor revenue. Revenue is projected to hit $230b, up from an estimated $115b in FY27. Still, that’s 100% growth. The stock still fell, though. Expectations were even higher. Broadcom guided Q4 revenue to $34.8b, but LSEG consensus was about $35.03b,

For the longest time, Microsoft lumped its cloud business unit Azure together with other businesses like GitHub, Security Copilot and healthcare cloud revenue. That made it hard for investors to know how fast Azure was really growing. Not anymore. Microsoft has finally decided to report Azure separately. Revenue for the June quarter was up 42% YoY, from US$20.7b to US$29.4b. FY2026 Azure revenue came in at US$101.9b, up 40% from US$72.6b. Quarterly Azure revenue accelerated from US$22.4b to $24.1b to $26.0b to $29.4b through FY26. Azure isn’t merely large, growth actually accelerated into Q4 despite the increasingly bigger base. Broadcom is super plugged into the AI value chain. It doesn’t just produce AI chips for companies like Google, it also makes the networking chips needed to move hu

Based on the latest futures market, the probability of a rate hike in September 2026 has dropped to 34.7%, down from more than 50% just a week ago. No rate hike is good news for AI capex. Companies like Alphabet are issuing new bonds to fund their expansion, and a hike would have raised their cost of funds, squeezed profits, and possibly delayed plans to borrow more and expand faster to meet demand. That worry is off the table for now, at least for the next two months, so they can carry on. Commodity prices are one thing worth watching. Not just oil, but copper, corn, and other raw materials that go into whatever we produce. They tend to lead the inflation numbers rather than follow them. The prolonged Iran War sparked fears that inflation would come roaring back. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Many investors assume a new high means the market is expensive and due for a fall. It’s the opposite. Markets hit new highs because they’re bullish, and a new high can be broken many times in a single year. A new high isn’t a ceiling. It’s proof the market has the energy to keep breaking through. You can see the track record of S&P 500 making numerous new highs in the past years. Look at new highs versus new lows on the NYSE (not the S&P 500). We’re seeing more highs than lows, and that’s strength, not weakness. In a bear market, new lows outnumber new highs. And if valuations were truly overstretched, we’d see new highs spike far above new lows, the way they did in February, just before the Iran War AI trades corrected heavily over the last two months, and that flushed out a lot o

The reality is there are plenty of other cybersecurity stocks out there, and one of them doesn’t compete head on with these three market leaders at all. Instead, it focuses on vulnerability detection. Think of vulnerability detection as hiring a highly trained security inspector to walk around your house every single day with a clipboard, aggressively checking for weaknesses before a burglar finds them. In an AI era where hacking grows more powerful by the month, and AI use keeps proliferating, vulnerability detection only becomes more important. Companies and organizations need to find their own weak points before malicious actors using AI find them first. The takeaway for the market was blunt. AI powered hacking had arrived, and established cybersecurity business models suddenly looked o

Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is the next Chinese name to make a splash in Western media. It ranks alongside the frontier models from Claude and ChatGPT, and that alone is a feat. The naysayers say it was achieved through distillation and the like. Maybe. But if it were that easy, every lab would be doing it and every model would be frontier class.Being frontier is one thing. Cost is another. Claude is known to be expensive. ChatGPT has managed to bring its costs down. Kimi K3 still comes in more than 50% cheaper than ChatGPT. As good as the West, at a fraction of the price. For cost conscious users, that is reason enough to switch.It also remains a few years behind its U.S. and Korean peers technologically. Strict export controls mean it cannot easily acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography equip