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naDan

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- naDannaDan
  ·2024-10-04
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
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- naDannaDan
  ·2024-09-04
  US stupid court....
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- naDannaDan
  ·2024-08-02
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
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- naDannaDan
  ·2024-06-24
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Healthy correction, no big deal
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- naDannaDan
  ·2023-08-24
  This is crab....
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- naDannaDan
  ·2022-12-17
  Good to see it tumbling... price is too high
  Dow Opens 200 Points Lower As Recession Fears Continue to Batter Wall Street
  Stocks were lower Friday morning as investors continued to sell into year-end on fears a recession i
  Dow Opens 200 Points Lower As Recession Fears Continue to Batter Wall Street
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- naDannaDan
  ·2022-03-26
  It is your guess or my guess....recession or inflation, either way, market still move. As long as market moves, we can make some money
  Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the "Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead"
  Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p
  Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the "Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead"
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356451025924288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345832892608688,"gmtCreate":1725437249804,"gmtModify":1725437542638,"author":{"id":"4107666137990730","authorId":"4107666137990730","name":"naDan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2381207f8576b6d220e1d4ac6afcb69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4107666137990730","idStr":"4107666137990730"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"US stupid court....","listText":"US stupid court....","text":"US stupid 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Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333994833502344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320276364759312,"gmtCreate":1719225397572,"gmtModify":1719225522017,"author":{"id":"4107666137990730","authorId":"4107666137990730","name":"naDan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2381207f8576b6d220e1d4ac6afcb69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4107666137990730","idStr":"4107666137990730"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> Healthy correction, no big deal&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> Healthy correction, no big deal&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Healthy correction, no big 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crab....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/212265933979768","repostId":"2361612374","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928858847,"gmtCreate":1671244941990,"gmtModify":1676538514880,"author":{"id":"4107666137990730","authorId":"4107666137990730","name":"naDan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2381207f8576b6d220e1d4ac6afcb69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4107666137990730","idStr":"4107666137990730"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good to see it tumbling... price is too high","listText":"Good to see it tumbling... price is too high","text":"Good to see it tumbling... price is too high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928858847","repostId":"1181908039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181908039","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671201068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181908039?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-16 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Opens 200 Points Lower As Recession Fears Continue to Batter Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181908039","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks were lower Friday morning as investors continued to sell into year-end on fears a recession i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks were lower Friday morning as investors continued to sell into year-end on fears a recession is ahead next year because of the Federal Reserve’s unrelenting rate hiking.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 217 points, or 0.65%. S&amp;P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%.</p><p>Stocks that would suffer in a recession declined in premarket trading Friday, with shares ofGMandCaterpillareach off more than 1%.</p><p>Meanwhile, shares of Olive Garden-parentDarden Restaurantsrose slightly in the premarketafter reporting earnings that topped estimates.</p><p>Those moves follow a rough day for markets. The Dow dropped 764.13 points, or 2.25%, on Thursday for its worse daily performance since September. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 2.49% and 3.23%, respectively.</p><p>Thursday’s disappointing retail sales reportspurred investor fears that consumer spending is slowing amid rising inflation, a sign that the economy is weakening.</p><p>With these latest declines, the indexes are poised to notch a second consecutive week of losses. The S&amp;P 500 is off 1% for the week and 4.5% for the month of December as hopes for a year-end rally fizzle.</p><p>Trading could be especially volatile Friday with a large amount of options set to expire. There are $2.6 trillion worth of index options set to expire, the highest amount “relative to the size of the equity market  in nearly two years,” according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p>Stocks have been falling this week in the wake of theFederal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate hikeon Wednesday — the highest rate in 15 years. The central bank said it would continue hiking rates through 2023 to 5.1%, a larger figure than previously expected.</p><p>“After gouging themselves on hopes for a Fed pivot, equity traders are experiencing indigestion from [Wednesday’s] FOMC statement, which reiterated Jerome Powell’s theme of ‘higher for longer,’” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.</p><p>They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank’s view of the economy.</p><p>There also will be data coming in the morning with December’s purchasing managers’ indexes within services and manufacturing.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Opens 200 Points Lower As Recession Fears Continue to Batter Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Opens 200 Points Lower As Recession Fears Continue to Batter Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-16 22:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks were lower Friday morning as investors continued to sell into year-end on fears a recession is ahead next year because of the Federal Reserve’s unrelenting rate hiking.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 217 points, or 0.65%. S&amp;P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%.</p><p>Stocks that would suffer in a recession declined in premarket trading Friday, with shares ofGMandCaterpillareach off more than 1%.</p><p>Meanwhile, shares of Olive Garden-parentDarden Restaurantsrose slightly in the premarketafter reporting earnings that topped estimates.</p><p>Those moves follow a rough day for markets. The Dow dropped 764.13 points, or 2.25%, on Thursday for its worse daily performance since September. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 2.49% and 3.23%, respectively.</p><p>Thursday’s disappointing retail sales reportspurred investor fears that consumer spending is slowing amid rising inflation, a sign that the economy is weakening.</p><p>With these latest declines, the indexes are poised to notch a second consecutive week of losses. The S&amp;P 500 is off 1% for the week and 4.5% for the month of December as hopes for a year-end rally fizzle.</p><p>Trading could be especially volatile Friday with a large amount of options set to expire. There are $2.6 trillion worth of index options set to expire, the highest amount “relative to the size of the equity market  in nearly two years,” according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p>Stocks have been falling this week in the wake of theFederal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate hikeon Wednesday — the highest rate in 15 years. The central bank said it would continue hiking rates through 2023 to 5.1%, a larger figure than previously expected.</p><p>“After gouging themselves on hopes for a Fed pivot, equity traders are experiencing indigestion from [Wednesday’s] FOMC statement, which reiterated Jerome Powell’s theme of ‘higher for longer,’” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.</p><p>They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank’s view of the economy.</p><p>There also will be data coming in the morning with December’s purchasing managers’ indexes within services and manufacturing.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181908039","content_text":"Stocks were lower Friday morning as investors continued to sell into year-end on fears a recession is ahead next year because of the Federal Reserve’s unrelenting rate hiking.The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 217 points, or 0.65%. S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%.Stocks that would suffer in a recession declined in premarket trading Friday, with shares ofGMandCaterpillareach off more than 1%.Meanwhile, shares of Olive Garden-parentDarden Restaurantsrose slightly in the premarketafter reporting earnings that topped estimates.Those moves follow a rough day for markets. The Dow dropped 764.13 points, or 2.25%, on Thursday for its worse daily performance since September. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 2.49% and 3.23%, respectively.Thursday’s disappointing retail sales reportspurred investor fears that consumer spending is slowing amid rising inflation, a sign that the economy is weakening.With these latest declines, the indexes are poised to notch a second consecutive week of losses. The S&P 500 is off 1% for the week and 4.5% for the month of December as hopes for a year-end rally fizzle.Trading could be especially volatile Friday with a large amount of options set to expire. There are $2.6 trillion worth of index options set to expire, the highest amount “relative to the size of the equity market  in nearly two years,” according to Goldman Sachs.Stocks have been falling this week in the wake of theFederal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate hikeon Wednesday — the highest rate in 15 years. The central bank said it would continue hiking rates through 2023 to 5.1%, a larger figure than previously expected.“After gouging themselves on hopes for a Fed pivot, equity traders are experiencing indigestion from [Wednesday’s] FOMC statement, which reiterated Jerome Powell’s theme of ‘higher for longer,’” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank’s view of the economy.There also will be data coming in the morning with December’s purchasing managers’ indexes within services and manufacturing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010161285,"gmtCreate":1648291424667,"gmtModify":1676534325867,"author":{"id":"4107666137990730","authorId":"4107666137990730","name":"naDan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2381207f8576b6d220e1d4ac6afcb69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4107666137990730","idStr":"4107666137990730"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It is your guess or my guess....recession or inflation, either way, market still move. As long as market moves, we can make some money","listText":"It is your guess or my guess....recession or inflation, either way, market still move. As long as market moves, we can make some money","text":"It is your guess or my guess....recession or inflation, either way, market still move. As long as market moves, we can make some money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010161285","repostId":"1196027616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196027616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648255536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196027616?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196027616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.</p><p>They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.</p><p>“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.</p><p>“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”</p><p>An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.</p><p>Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.</p><p>Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know</p><p>But that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.</p><p>“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.</p><p>“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”</p><h2>Watch 10-year, 3-month</h2><p>Instead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe28818cd1806ee5afd5519332cf483\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management</span></p><p>“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.</p><p>“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”</p><p>Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.</p><p>By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”</p><p>On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.</p><p>“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.</p><p>A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.</p><p>“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196027616","content_text":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to knowBut that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”Watch 10-year, 3-monthInstead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000360","authorId":"9000000000000360","name":"snoozi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf2072a17d25a1d36d3d9998b259d99","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000360","idStr":"9000000000000360"},"content":"I think whether it is inflation or economic recession, the stock market will fall and it is difficult to make money.","text":"I think whether it is inflation or economic recession, the stock market will fall and it is difficult to make money.","html":"I think whether it is inflation or economic recession, the stock market will fall and it is difficult to make money."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000179","authorId":"9000000000000179","name":"poppii","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3277b62086966882a8b4e45d9f8b88bb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000179","idStr":"9000000000000179"},"content":"But I think these two have a better negative impact on the market.","text":"But I think these two have a better negative impact on the market.","html":"But I think these two have a better negative impact on the market."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}