To The Moon

September closed with one last twist: a down day for most of the market, except for tech, which managed to stay afloat while the rest of Wall Street sagged. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.25% Dow: –0.86% (–441 pts) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.24% The S&P spent most of the session in positive territory thanks to softer‑than‑expected inflation data. August core PCE rose 0.2%, while headline PCE climbed 0.3%, both cooler than forecasts and enough to spark a morning rally. But the momentum didn’t survive the close. The S&P slipped into the red, ending September down 0.5%, while the Dow logged a 4.3% monthly drop. The Nasdaq, powered by tech resilience, finished the month up 1.9%. Yields Stay Hot, Markets Stay Ner

Tuesday delivered another reminder of who’s really in charge of this market: the bond market. Equities tried to mount a midday rebound, but rising long‑term yields ultimately kept stocks pinned in the red. Dow: –0.26% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.17% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –0.09% All three benchmarks traded much lower earlier in the session before staging a partial recovery. The catalyst for that brief optimism was a set of comments from New York Fed President John Williams that traders interpreted as slightly more dovish. Combined with cooler‑than‑expected jobs data, rate‑hike odds for October fell sharply, from 71% to roughly 52%, and 2‑year yields eased. Oil also helped sentiment: Brent: near $96 WTI: back bel

Markets opened the week under pressure, weighed down by rising oil prices, geopolitical tension, and the growing likelihood of more rate hikes. It was a grey Monday in New York, and the tape looked the same. Index performance: Dow: –0.67% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.77% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –0.92% The Dow is now on pace for its worst September in three years. Oil Stays Elevated as Iran Tensions Escalate Trump’s rejection of Iran’s cease‑fire proposal sent crude higher again. Ed Yardeni summed up the market’s anxiety: without a diplomatic breakthrough, oil stays expensive, inflation stays sticky, and central banks stay hawkish. His warning is blunt: Higher‑for‑longer oil → higher‑for‑longer rates. That alone is

After several days of sharp swings, Wall Street managed to close the week on a surprisingly constructive note. Friday’s session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.51% Dow: +0.93% (+479 pts) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.48% All three major indexes posted weekly gains: Dow: +0.3%, snapping a three‑week losing streak S&P 500: +1.2%, breaking a two‑week slide Nasdaq: +2.1%, leading the charge Not bad for a market that spent most of the week wrestling with surging yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Yields Hit New Highs - Yet Equities Don’t Break The 10‑year Treasury climbed to 5.18%, its highest level since 2007. Oil eased into the weekend, but bond volatility remained elevated. US10Y Friday’s equity strength came after

Markets opened weak on Thursday but briefly found relief after reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased path toward de‑escalation. The bounce didn’t last. By the close, stocks were essentially unchanged, unable to shake off the pressure coming from the bond market. Index performance: Dow: –0.31% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.02% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.01% The resilience is notable: despite the noise, all three benchmarks remain near record highs. Yields Stay Elevated - And Equities Feel It Treasury yields continued their march upward: US3OY 10‑year: highest level since 2007 7‑year: highest since 2009 The drivers are stacking up-rising oil, expectations of more Fed tightening, and weak d

Wall Street spent Wednesday wrestling with a message the bond market is no longer whispering: yields are rising fast, and stocks can’t ignore it anymore. The session was broadly negative: $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –1.13% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.75% Dow: –0.68% Only energy managed to finish higher, as nearly every other sector buckled under the weight of surging rates. The trigger was a brutal 5‑year Treasury auction, as “disastrous.” Weak demand sent the 5‑year yield above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Long‑duration yields followed su

AI Strength Lifts the Nasdaq While Geopolitics Keep the Rest of the Market on Edge Tuesday delivered a split‑screen session on Wall Street: enthusiasm around AI pushed the Nasdaq to another record, while the Dow and S&P 500 struggled to find direction. Index performance: $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.45% - second consecutive all‑time high S&P 500: flat Dow: –0.36% The standout driver was renewed momentum in the AI ecosystem. Meta’s new Muse AI assistant surged to the top of the Apple Store rankings, and major platforms like Shopify and PayPal moved quickly to integrate with it. The speed of adoption is reinforcing the idea that AI remains one of the strongest secular growth engines in the market. Oil Retreats as Gulf Tensions Shift - But Uncertain

The Dow spent another session under pressure, slipping 0.2% and closing out its worst week since March. It’s now three straight weeks of declines, not catastrophic, but enough to signal that large‑cap cyclicals are struggling to find footing. The broader market looked slightly healthier: $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.39% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.17% Both indexes only managed to turn green in the final stretch of trading, but the resilience was notable given the cross‑currents investors are navigating. Triple Witching Adds a Dose of Chaos Friday wasn’t just another trading day, it was quarterly triple witching, when stock options, index futures, and index options all expire simultaneously. These sessions often bri

One day after the Federal Reserve kicked off its first tightening move in three years, investors did the opposite of what the textbooks predict: they bought. Hard. Stocks Wall Street spent the night digesting the Fed’s message, and by morning the tone had flipped. The idea that policymakers merely “removed a dose of accommodation” a phrase Chair Kevin Warsh repeated several times, seems to have reassured traders that the Fed is tightening from a position of confidence, not panic. Major indexes rallied strongly: Dow: +0.61% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +1.14% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +1.69% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate increase in three years on Wednesday, and the reaction across markets was immediate: risk assets pulled back, Treasury yields surged, and investors began recalibrating what the next phase of this tightening cycle might look like. The 10‑year Treasury once again pushed above the 5% threshold, a level that has repeatedly acted as a psychological ceiling for equity sentiment. Major indexes closed lower: Dow: –1.21% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.45% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –0.01% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ The move was widely an