Profile - To The Moon

Ottie

Posts · 3Posts · 3
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- OttieOttie
  ·2022-10-08
  We'll said!
  Have The P/E Ratios Of S&P 500 ETFs Dropped Into The Buy Range?
  SummaryIn January I presented target P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and ETFs that track it. Here we revi
  Have The P/E Ratios Of S&P 500 ETFs Dropped Into The Buy Range?
  126 Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
- OttieOttie
  ·2022-10-07
  Awww
  US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow Close Lower After Bank Earnings, Inflation Data
  JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley report profit missPPI surges more than expected in JuneConagra Brands falls
  US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow Close Lower After Bank Earnings, Inflation Data
  281 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- OttieOttie
  ·2022-05-26
  Ok
  US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations
  Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes 'likely'Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlookNvidia Q2
  US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations
  142 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
No followers yet

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4112991481234062","uuid":"4112991481234062","gmtCreate":1649888707177,"gmtModify":1706620744051,"name":"Ottie","pinyin":"ottie","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5a7548abaa37f3d377b1bc8a4b7c599","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":0,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":3,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.31","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.01.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9914922994,"gmtCreate":1665167301019,"gmtModify":1676537566862,"author":{"id":"4112991481234062","authorId":"4112991481234062","name":"Ottie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5a7548abaa37f3d377b1bc8a4b7c599","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112991481234062","idStr":"4112991481234062"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We'll said!&nbsp;","listText":"We'll said!&nbsp;","text":"We'll said!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914922994","repostId":"1182881749","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182881749","pubTimestamp":1665128643,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182881749?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-07 15:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Have The P/E Ratios Of S&P 500 ETFs Dropped Into The Buy Range?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182881749","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn January I presented target P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and ETFs that track it. Here we revi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>In January I presented target P/E ratios for the S&amp;P 500 and ETFs that track it. Here we revisit them.</li><li>We find a wide disparity in analysts&#39; consensus predictions for S&amp;P 500&#39;s 2022 earnings. We examine three different ones and see how they change the current P/E ratio.</li><li>But it may be misleading to use average P/E ratios that prevailed during periods over the past 20 years. If inflation persists, much lower ones might become common.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc9f9716a977d9f459b00d0a88a36f1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sohel_Parvez_Haque/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>Back in January of this year, I published an article,Value-Based Price Targets For VOO Under Different Possible Scenarios, referring to the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index (SP500) very closely. Inthat article, I came up with price targets that would satisfy investors who take valuation into account.</p><p>To do this I looked at what the historical P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 had been through multi-year periods characterized by different market conditions that took place over the past 20 years. I used Fastgraphs to calculate the long-term average value P/E ratio for each period, and suggested that the P/E ratio that prevailed in each might be useful for determining valuations now based on your perception of which kind of market condition we might be in for the next several years.</p><p>These are the four different Price/Earnings ratios that prevailed during four periods selected from the past 20 years that experienced very different market conditions:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/330f3e8db73f5aa179f1eb0a94a7ab29\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the time I wrote that article, the price of the S&amp;P 500 was at 4410, and its forward-looking P/E was 23.54. That was still very high in contrast to even the most optimistic conditions that had prevailed for multi-year periods, even after the significant share price drop that occurred at the beginning of January.</p><p>As we all know, the S&amp;P 500 declined another 15% since that time. Now the S&amp;P 500 has experienced a bear market that recovered slightly, only to plunge again into bear territory, this stark division in sentiment between bulls and bears has led to increased price volatility for the ETFs that track the S&amp;P 500. It has not been unusual to see them fluctuate 2% or more, up or down, on any given day.</p><h3>S&amp;P 500 ETFs - 1 Month Total Return</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce00523a4d26817ea9bdd02fc6a2f3e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>So, with the third quarter now over, I thought this would be a good time to take another look at the S&amp;P 500&#39;s current P/E ratio, to see if its price has, in fact, dropped into a range where it gives it a P/E ratio that would convince a valuation-driven investor to increase their allocation to shares of one of the major S&amp;P 500 ETFs.</p><h2>Fastgraphs No Longer Reports S&amp;P 500 Data</h2><p>Since I wrote that January article, Fastgraphs is no longer reporting data for the S&amp;P 500, due, I was told, to the exorbitant price S&amp;P Global charges for the index data for that single index. Instead, Fastgraphs now reports data for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) which it claims performs in a manner similar enough to the S&amp;P 500 to be used for analyses based on it.</p><p>Taking an average of the daily closing price of SPY and the S&amp;P 500 over several months and calculating the average difference between the two, I was able to confirm that SPY&#39;s price does track the S&amp;P 500 very closely. You can convert an S&amp;P 500 price to a SPY price and get a very close approximation of the actual price at any given time using this formula:</p><p><b>SPY Price = S&amp;P 500 Price *.09949</b></p><p>You can calculate an S&amp;P 500 Price using the inverse formula:</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Price = SPY Price/.09949</b></p><p>I used this same relationship to convert the earnings estimate reported for SPY into the corresponding earnings estimate for the S&amp;P 500. It won&#39;t be exact, but it should be close enough, especially given how inexact the estimates are for any stock&#39;s future earnings and how much more inexact the estimates must be for an ETF holding over 500 stocks.</p><p>Calculating Today&#39;s P/E Based on Fastgraph&#39;s Forward Earnings Estimate</p><p>Fastgraphs currently reports analysts&#39; estimates for the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 2022 earnings to be $22.61. Using that data, we get the following table showing what P/E ratio based on current earnings would correspond to historical fair values for the four very different market conditions we might encounter.</p><p>Here is how SPY&#39;s Price looks as I write on 10/4/2022</p><p><b>SPY Valuation with Estimated VOO and S&amp;P 500 Prices 10/4/2022</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70acb74ae953c5f7b1185360fb5e82b\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since I personally use VOO to invest in the S&amp;P 500, I use the conversion factor I had come up with in my previous article to convert the S&amp;P 500 price to a close approximation of VOO&#39;s price. That conversion formula is:</p><p><b>VOO Price = S&amp;P 500 Price * .0916</b></p><p>Based on the analysts&#39; estimates that SPY&#39;s earnings for 2022 will come in at $22.61 we come up with these prices for VOO, SPY, and the S&amp;P 500 that would generate the P/E ratios that prevailed during periods when the market displayed the following conditions:</p><p><b>Estimated Fair Value P/E Ratios Under Different Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae38180088c0fca6d2733109237b4b5\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As you can see, using these analysts&#39; earnings estimates, the S&amp;P today would appear to be priced at a price lower than the historical average P/E ratio for periods when the market went through an extended period of stagnation. As reported in my earlier article, I came up with this P/E ratio by taking the average P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 over the entire period from January 2003 to January of 2022, which was 17.68.</p><p>SPY and by extension the S&amp;P 500 and VOO also appear to be priced below the P/E that prevailed in the period several years after the Dot.com bust.</p><p>So based solely on this, admittedly crude, valuation approximation, it would look like this would be a great time to buy into an ETF like SPY, VOO, or perhaps the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV) that tracks the S&amp;P 500. The valuation is far better than it has been since most of the period since 2013.</p><p><b>SPY Price and Earnings 2002 until Now</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78fb6dda1a8cb0c9f27f84d54404e79e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>(fastgraphs.com)</span></p><h2>But Are These Forward Earnings Estimates Too Rosy?</h2><p>The P/E ratio changes dramatically if the price remains the same while earnings fall. The earnings estimate for Year End 2022 reported by Fastgraphs now, based on Factset data, have actually risen from where they were in January when I wrote the earlier article. Back in January, analysts were predicting that S&amp;P 500 earnings would grow by 12% in 2022. Now they appear to be assuming earnings growth of 13.46%.</p><p><b>Current Analyst Forecasts for SPY Earnings from Fastgraphs</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2d4b0bcd3ddff1cc01565dc56171380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>fastgraphs.com</span></p><p>I found it very hard to believe that these estimates were up-to-date. So I went to another useful source of information about the S&amp;P 500, the YRI S&amp;P 500 Earnings Forecast, published by Yardeni Research, which displays Yardeni&#39;s estimates along with the &#34;Analysts&#39; Consensus.&#34;</p><h2>Yardeni&#39;s Data Is Up-To-Date</h2><p>The report available online as I write this was just published on October 3, 2022, which is as fresh as you are going to get. I therefore give it more credence than forecast found in Fastgraphs. Here are Yardeni and Analysts&#39; forecasts as reported in this most recent YRI S&amp;P 500 Forecast report.</p><p><b>Estimated 2022 S&amp;P 500 Earnings</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0645366d7509d4c9316c56e516a798b0\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"222\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Yardeni&#39;s report tells us that the analyst consensus data used for that report comes from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.</p><p>As you can see, the Analysts&#39; Consensus reported by Yardeni is far less optimistic than the one displayed by Fastgraphs. It predicts earnings growth of only 7.30%. Yardeni&#39;s own S&amp;P 500 growth forecast is only half of that, at 3.10%.</p><p>Plugging in the Analysts&#39; Consensus reported here into the spreadsheet I use to calculate target P/E ratios based on the S&amp;P 500&#39;s price and earnings at any given time we come up with this up-to-date P/E ratio as of the time I am writing in the morning of October 4, 2022. I have also used the formulas given above to estimate the corresponding price of SPY and VOO.</p><p><b>Current P/E Ratio Based on Yardeni-Reported Analysts&#39; Consensus</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a136500fc44026d74e7702fb7552ab81\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The 16.88 P/E ratio calculated here is slightly higher than the one we saw using Factset data reported by Fastgraphs. It is still lower than the historical average P/E that prevailed during a period following overvaluation following the dot.com bust.</p><p>But recall that Yardeni&#39;s own estimate of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth is about half that of the analysts&#39; he cites. If we use the Yardeni estimate and the S&amp;P 500 level right now, we get this result.</p><p><b>Current P/E Ratio Based on Yardeni Research Estimate</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045676def8729234e948699487e5caa1\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"222\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>More Modest Earnings Estimates Push Up the P/E Significantly</h2><p>As you can see, the more pessimistic earnings estimate gives us a P/E ratio that is priced for a stagnant period without a crash, but not a period following overvaluation.</p><p>This points out how fragile any P/E ratio you see reported really is if it incorporates forward looking estimates. Analysts&#39; estimates change and the consensus estimates from one data provider can be very different from that of another.</p><p>Take with a grain of salt, therefore, any P/E ratio you see reported for any ETF, as the only accurate P/E figures are those for past years when actual earnings can be used to compute the P/E ratio. ETF providers don&#39;t reveal the extent to which the current P/E ratios they report embody forward estimates or if they do, whose estimates they are using.</p><h2>Takeaways for Valuation-Guided Investors</h2><p>Keep a close eye on third quarter earnings reports and corporate forward guidance because if earnings are declining more than expected, the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 could surge.</p><p>Ignore any reporting that focuses on whether or not earnings beat &#34;beat analysts&#39; consensus.&#34; What is important is whether earnings are rising Year over Year for the quarter, and how analysts&#39; full year estimates change after a significant number of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported those quarterly earnings.</p><p>Fastgraphs subscribers should be even more cautious. Though I have found Fastgraphs very helpful in the past when beginning my research into individual stocks, I have often been misled by those rosy P/E ratios forecast for the next year. Treat any P/E ratio you see as having a wide range around the number reported.</p><h2>How Useful are Any Valuations Derived from The Past 20 Years?</h2><p>Back testing and historical results drawn from a period of low inflation, stable prices, and historically well-below-average borrowing costs is going to be very misleading now that none of those characteristics describes the current market environment. That might mean that the P/E ratios that prevailed throughout the past 20 years might be less helpful than I originally thought back before the Ukraine war pushed inflation up to levels not seen in many decades.</p><p>We know for a fact that the P/E ratios that prevailed during the 1970s were far lower than any of the targets derived from the past 20 years.</p><p><b>Year End P/E ratios of the S&amp;P 500 from 1970 to 1981</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f3a7c5e745254a154c781c1b81bcdc6\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"723\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: www.multpl.com</span></p><p>Inflation really took off at the beginning of 1974 with the Oil Crisis tripling the price of a gallon of gasoline. A look at the P/E ratios that prevailed during this inflationary period is sobering. At current earnings, the price of the S&amp;P 500 that would yield a P/E of 8.0 would be somewhere around 1800.</p><p>No one knows if the current inflationary period will persist. But knowing what the possibilities are, I recommend that if you want to build a position in any S&amp;P 500 ETF the wisest choice is to dollar cost average. Make small buys every month. Don&#39;t try to call a bottom or let FOMO get you investing money that the price of the S&amp;P 500 was to drop precipitously would leave you without money you would need to spend.</p><p>Compared to the situation we had over the period surrounding COVID-19, the valuation of the S&amp;P 500 looks a lot more reasonable. But it will only stay reasonable if earnings for the year come in at a level corresponding to one of these current estimates and if companies can continue growing their earnings at a modest annual rate.</p><p>If earnings crash and the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings for 2022 decrease from what they were in 2021, especially if companies issue downbeat forward guidance, the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 will shoot up. That will put it back into overvalued territory, using the historical average P/E ratio levels drawn from the past twenty years, even though its price has declined dramatically.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Have The P/E Ratios Of S&P 500 ETFs Dropped Into The Buy Range?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHave The P/E Ratios Of S&P 500 ETFs Dropped Into The Buy Range?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-07 15:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544667-have-s-and-p-500-etfs-pe-ratios-dropped-into-the-buy-range><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn January I presented target P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and ETFs that track it. Here we revisit them.We find a wide disparity in analysts' consensus predictions for S&P 500's 2022 earnings. We...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544667-have-s-and-p-500-etfs-pe-ratios-dropped-into-the-buy-range\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544667-have-s-and-p-500-etfs-pe-ratios-dropped-into-the-buy-range","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182881749","content_text":"SummaryIn January I presented target P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and ETFs that track it. Here we revisit them.We find a wide disparity in analysts' consensus predictions for S&P 500's 2022 earnings. We examine three different ones and see how they change the current P/E ratio.But it may be misleading to use average P/E ratios that prevailed during periods over the past 20 years. If inflation persists, much lower ones might become common.Sohel_Parvez_Haque/iStock via Getty ImagesBack in January of this year, I published an article,Value-Based Price Targets For VOO Under Different Possible Scenarios, referring to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which tracks the S&P 500 Index (SP500) very closely. Inthat article, I came up with price targets that would satisfy investors who take valuation into account.To do this I looked at what the historical P/E ratio of the S&P 500 had been through multi-year periods characterized by different market conditions that took place over the past 20 years. I used Fastgraphs to calculate the long-term average value P/E ratio for each period, and suggested that the P/E ratio that prevailed in each might be useful for determining valuations now based on your perception of which kind of market condition we might be in for the next several years.These are the four different Price/Earnings ratios that prevailed during four periods selected from the past 20 years that experienced very different market conditions:At the time I wrote that article, the price of the S&P 500 was at 4410, and its forward-looking P/E was 23.54. That was still very high in contrast to even the most optimistic conditions that had prevailed for multi-year periods, even after the significant share price drop that occurred at the beginning of January.As we all know, the S&P 500 declined another 15% since that time. Now the S&P 500 has experienced a bear market that recovered slightly, only to plunge again into bear territory, this stark division in sentiment between bulls and bears has led to increased price volatility for the ETFs that track the S&P 500. It has not been unusual to see them fluctuate 2% or more, up or down, on any given day.S&P 500 ETFs - 1 Month Total ReturnSeeking AlphaSo, with the third quarter now over, I thought this would be a good time to take another look at the S&P 500's current P/E ratio, to see if its price has, in fact, dropped into a range where it gives it a P/E ratio that would convince a valuation-driven investor to increase their allocation to shares of one of the major S&P 500 ETFs.Fastgraphs No Longer Reports S&P 500 DataSince I wrote that January article, Fastgraphs is no longer reporting data for the S&P 500, due, I was told, to the exorbitant price S&P Global charges for the index data for that single index. Instead, Fastgraphs now reports data for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) which it claims performs in a manner similar enough to the S&P 500 to be used for analyses based on it.Taking an average of the daily closing price of SPY and the S&P 500 over several months and calculating the average difference between the two, I was able to confirm that SPY's price does track the S&P 500 very closely. You can convert an S&P 500 price to a SPY price and get a very close approximation of the actual price at any given time using this formula:SPY Price = S&P 500 Price *.09949You can calculate an S&P 500 Price using the inverse formula:S&P 500 Price = SPY Price/.09949I used this same relationship to convert the earnings estimate reported for SPY into the corresponding earnings estimate for the S&P 500. It won't be exact, but it should be close enough, especially given how inexact the estimates are for any stock's future earnings and how much more inexact the estimates must be for an ETF holding over 500 stocks.Calculating Today's P/E Based on Fastgraph's Forward Earnings EstimateFastgraphs currently reports analysts' estimates for the S&P 500's 2022 earnings to be $22.61. Using that data, we get the following table showing what P/E ratio based on current earnings would correspond to historical fair values for the four very different market conditions we might encounter.Here is how SPY's Price looks as I write on 10/4/2022SPY Valuation with Estimated VOO and S&P 500 Prices 10/4/2022Since I personally use VOO to invest in the S&P 500, I use the conversion factor I had come up with in my previous article to convert the S&P 500 price to a close approximation of VOO's price. That conversion formula is:VOO Price = S&P 500 Price * .0916Based on the analysts' estimates that SPY's earnings for 2022 will come in at $22.61 we come up with these prices for VOO, SPY, and the S&P 500 that would generate the P/E ratios that prevailed during periods when the market displayed the following conditions:Estimated Fair Value P/E Ratios Under Different ScenariosAs you can see, using these analysts' earnings estimates, the S&P today would appear to be priced at a price lower than the historical average P/E ratio for periods when the market went through an extended period of stagnation. As reported in my earlier article, I came up with this P/E ratio by taking the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 over the entire period from January 2003 to January of 2022, which was 17.68.SPY and by extension the S&P 500 and VOO also appear to be priced below the P/E that prevailed in the period several years after the Dot.com bust.So based solely on this, admittedly crude, valuation approximation, it would look like this would be a great time to buy into an ETF like SPY, VOO, or perhaps the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) that tracks the S&P 500. The valuation is far better than it has been since most of the period since 2013.SPY Price and Earnings 2002 until Now(fastgraphs.com)But Are These Forward Earnings Estimates Too Rosy?The P/E ratio changes dramatically if the price remains the same while earnings fall. The earnings estimate for Year End 2022 reported by Fastgraphs now, based on Factset data, have actually risen from where they were in January when I wrote the earlier article. Back in January, analysts were predicting that S&P 500 earnings would grow by 12% in 2022. Now they appear to be assuming earnings growth of 13.46%.Current Analyst Forecasts for SPY Earnings from Fastgraphsfastgraphs.comI found it very hard to believe that these estimates were up-to-date. So I went to another useful source of information about the S&P 500, the YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast, published by Yardeni Research, which displays Yardeni's estimates along with the \"Analysts' Consensus.\"Yardeni's Data Is Up-To-DateThe report available online as I write this was just published on October 3, 2022, which is as fresh as you are going to get. I therefore give it more credence than forecast found in Fastgraphs. Here are Yardeni and Analysts' forecasts as reported in this most recent YRI S&P 500 Forecast report.Estimated 2022 S&P 500 EarningsYardeni's report tells us that the analyst consensus data used for that report comes from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.As you can see, the Analysts' Consensus reported by Yardeni is far less optimistic than the one displayed by Fastgraphs. It predicts earnings growth of only 7.30%. Yardeni's own S&P 500 growth forecast is only half of that, at 3.10%.Plugging in the Analysts' Consensus reported here into the spreadsheet I use to calculate target P/E ratios based on the S&P 500's price and earnings at any given time we come up with this up-to-date P/E ratio as of the time I am writing in the morning of October 4, 2022. I have also used the formulas given above to estimate the corresponding price of SPY and VOO.Current P/E Ratio Based on Yardeni-Reported Analysts' ConsensusThe 16.88 P/E ratio calculated here is slightly higher than the one we saw using Factset data reported by Fastgraphs. It is still lower than the historical average P/E that prevailed during a period following overvaluation following the dot.com bust.But recall that Yardeni's own estimate of S&P 500 earnings growth is about half that of the analysts' he cites. If we use the Yardeni estimate and the S&P 500 level right now, we get this result.Current P/E Ratio Based on Yardeni Research EstimateMore Modest Earnings Estimates Push Up the P/E SignificantlyAs you can see, the more pessimistic earnings estimate gives us a P/E ratio that is priced for a stagnant period without a crash, but not a period following overvaluation.This points out how fragile any P/E ratio you see reported really is if it incorporates forward looking estimates. Analysts' estimates change and the consensus estimates from one data provider can be very different from that of another.Take with a grain of salt, therefore, any P/E ratio you see reported for any ETF, as the only accurate P/E figures are those for past years when actual earnings can be used to compute the P/E ratio. ETF providers don't reveal the extent to which the current P/E ratios they report embody forward estimates or if they do, whose estimates they are using.Takeaways for Valuation-Guided InvestorsKeep a close eye on third quarter earnings reports and corporate forward guidance because if earnings are declining more than expected, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 could surge.Ignore any reporting that focuses on whether or not earnings beat \"beat analysts' consensus.\" What is important is whether earnings are rising Year over Year for the quarter, and how analysts' full year estimates change after a significant number of S&P 500 companies have reported those quarterly earnings.Fastgraphs subscribers should be even more cautious. Though I have found Fastgraphs very helpful in the past when beginning my research into individual stocks, I have often been misled by those rosy P/E ratios forecast for the next year. Treat any P/E ratio you see as having a wide range around the number reported.How Useful are Any Valuations Derived from The Past 20 Years?Back testing and historical results drawn from a period of low inflation, stable prices, and historically well-below-average borrowing costs is going to be very misleading now that none of those characteristics describes the current market environment. That might mean that the P/E ratios that prevailed throughout the past 20 years might be less helpful than I originally thought back before the Ukraine war pushed inflation up to levels not seen in many decades.We know for a fact that the P/E ratios that prevailed during the 1970s were far lower than any of the targets derived from the past 20 years.Year End P/E ratios of the S&P 500 from 1970 to 1981Source: www.multpl.comInflation really took off at the beginning of 1974 with the Oil Crisis tripling the price of a gallon of gasoline. A look at the P/E ratios that prevailed during this inflationary period is sobering. At current earnings, the price of the S&P 500 that would yield a P/E of 8.0 would be somewhere around 1800.No one knows if the current inflationary period will persist. But knowing what the possibilities are, I recommend that if you want to build a position in any S&P 500 ETF the wisest choice is to dollar cost average. Make small buys every month. Don't try to call a bottom or let FOMO get you investing money that the price of the S&P 500 was to drop precipitously would leave you without money you would need to spend.Compared to the situation we had over the period surrounding COVID-19, the valuation of the S&P 500 looks a lot more reasonable. But it will only stay reasonable if earnings for the year come in at a level corresponding to one of these current estimates and if companies can continue growing their earnings at a modest annual rate.If earnings crash and the S&P 500's earnings for 2022 decrease from what they were in 2021, especially if companies issue downbeat forward guidance, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 will shoot up. That will put it back into overvalued territory, using the historical average P/E ratio levels drawn from the past twenty years, even though its price has declined dramatically.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914043439,"gmtCreate":1665145851021,"gmtModify":1676537563917,"author":{"id":"4112991481234062","authorId":"4112991481234062","name":"Ottie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5a7548abaa37f3d377b1bc8a4b7c599","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112991481234062","idStr":"4112991481234062"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awww&nbsp;","listText":"Awww&nbsp;","text":"Awww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914043439","repostId":"2251179244","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2251179244","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1657830605,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2251179244?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 04:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow Close Lower After Bank Earnings, Inflation Data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251179244","media":"Reuters","summary":"JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley report profit missPPI surges more than expected in JuneConagra Brands falls","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley report profit miss</li><li>PPI surges more than expected in June</li><li>Conagra Brands falls on downbeat forecast</li><li>Dow down 0.46%, S&amp;P off 0.30%, Nasdaq up 0.03%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 pared early losses to close modestly lower on Thursday after investors digested disappointing quarterly results from two large U.S. banks and hotter-than-expected inflation data.</p><p>Initially, all three major U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply in the wake of second-quarter earnings from JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Morgan Stanley. Both reported slumping profits and warned of impending economic slowdown.</p><p>Losses narrowed as the session wore on, with advancing microchip stocks    helping nudge the Nasdaq Composite Index to a nominal gain.</p><p>&#34;There was an irrational response to the JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley results,&#34; said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and portfolio manager at InfraCap in New York. &#34;It wasn&#39;t a surprise that investment banking was weak.&#34;</p><p>&#34;JPMorgan warned that there&#39;s uncertainty in the market, but if you&#39;re alive and breathing you know there’s uncertainty in the market.&#34;</p><p>JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon struck a cautious note on the global economy while Morgan Stanley&#39;s investment banking unit struggled to cope with a slump in global dealmaking.</p><p>Shares of JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley fell 3.5% and 0.4%, respectively, while the S&amp;P Banks index shed 2.4%.</p><p>Slowdown worries were exacerbated as the Labor Department&#39;s Producer Price Index report echoed Wednesday&#39;s Consumer Price Index data, showing hotter-than-expected inflation in June.</p><p>The sell-off began to ease after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supported another 75 basis point interest rate increase in July, easing jitters over an even bigger, 100 basis point hike.</p><p>&#34;The Fed is going to rise rates by 75 but they shouldn&#39;t,&#34; Hatfield said. &#34;The Fed has already done a lot to reduce inflation but they&#39;re not going to realize that until they see it in the rear view mirror.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The thing to remember about the Fed is it&#39;s almost as if their third mandate is to be behind the curve,&#34; Hatfield added.</p><p>On Wednesday, the odds of a larger hike grew after the CPI report, considering the central bank&#39;s intention to aggressively tackle decades-high inflation - a prospect which increases chances of an economic contraction.</p><p>&#34;There will be a recession but a mild one,&#34; Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. &#34;The key component is continued strength in the labor market. Given where we are in the employment picture, that&#39;s not an immediate threat.&#34;</p><p>Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, continues to ease from the March peak, although it remains well above the central bank&#39;s average annual 2% target:</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.62 points, or 0.46%, to 30,630.17, the S&amp;P 500 lost 11.4 points, or 0.30%, at 3,790.38 and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.60 points, or 0.03%, at 11,251.19.</p><p>Eight of the 11 major sectors of the S&amp;P 500 ended the day in negative territory, with financials    suffering the largest percentage loss, dropping 1.9%.</p><p>Tech was the biggest gainer.</p><p>With earnings season officially underway, analysts expect aggregate S&amp;P 500 second-quarter year-on-year profit growth of 5.1%, far less than the 6.8% estimate at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</p><p>rose 2.9% following the chipmaker&#39;s upbeat revenue guidance.</p><p>Conagra Brands    tumbled 7.2% after issuing an annual earnings forecast that came in below estimates.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 3.11-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded nine new highs and 294 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.86 billion shares, compared with the 12.48 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow Close Lower After Bank Earnings, Inflation Data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow Close Lower After Bank Earnings, Inflation Data\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-15 04:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley report profit miss</li><li>PPI surges more than expected in June</li><li>Conagra Brands falls on downbeat forecast</li><li>Dow down 0.46%, S&amp;P off 0.30%, Nasdaq up 0.03%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 pared early losses to close modestly lower on Thursday after investors digested disappointing quarterly results from two large U.S. banks and hotter-than-expected inflation data.</p><p>Initially, all three major U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply in the wake of second-quarter earnings from JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Morgan Stanley. Both reported slumping profits and warned of impending economic slowdown.</p><p>Losses narrowed as the session wore on, with advancing microchip stocks    helping nudge the Nasdaq Composite Index to a nominal gain.</p><p>&#34;There was an irrational response to the JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley results,&#34; said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and portfolio manager at InfraCap in New York. &#34;It wasn&#39;t a surprise that investment banking was weak.&#34;</p><p>&#34;JPMorgan warned that there&#39;s uncertainty in the market, but if you&#39;re alive and breathing you know there’s uncertainty in the market.&#34;</p><p>JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon struck a cautious note on the global economy while Morgan Stanley&#39;s investment banking unit struggled to cope with a slump in global dealmaking.</p><p>Shares of JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley fell 3.5% and 0.4%, respectively, while the S&amp;P Banks index shed 2.4%.</p><p>Slowdown worries were exacerbated as the Labor Department&#39;s Producer Price Index report echoed Wednesday&#39;s Consumer Price Index data, showing hotter-than-expected inflation in June.</p><p>The sell-off began to ease after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supported another 75 basis point interest rate increase in July, easing jitters over an even bigger, 100 basis point hike.</p><p>&#34;The Fed is going to rise rates by 75 but they shouldn&#39;t,&#34; Hatfield said. &#34;The Fed has already done a lot to reduce inflation but they&#39;re not going to realize that until they see it in the rear view mirror.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The thing to remember about the Fed is it&#39;s almost as if their third mandate is to be behind the curve,&#34; Hatfield added.</p><p>On Wednesday, the odds of a larger hike grew after the CPI report, considering the central bank&#39;s intention to aggressively tackle decades-high inflation - a prospect which increases chances of an economic contraction.</p><p>&#34;There will be a recession but a mild one,&#34; Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. &#34;The key component is continued strength in the labor market. Given where we are in the employment picture, that&#39;s not an immediate threat.&#34;</p><p>Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, continues to ease from the March peak, although it remains well above the central bank&#39;s average annual 2% target:</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.62 points, or 0.46%, to 30,630.17, the S&amp;P 500 lost 11.4 points, or 0.30%, at 3,790.38 and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.60 points, or 0.03%, at 11,251.19.</p><p>Eight of the 11 major sectors of the S&amp;P 500 ended the day in negative territory, with financials    suffering the largest percentage loss, dropping 1.9%.</p><p>Tech was the biggest gainer.</p><p>With earnings season officially underway, analysts expect aggregate S&amp;P 500 second-quarter year-on-year profit growth of 5.1%, far less than the 6.8% estimate at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</p><p>rose 2.9% following the chipmaker&#39;s upbeat revenue guidance.</p><p>Conagra Brands    tumbled 7.2% after issuing an annual earnings forecast that came in below estimates.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 3.11-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded nine new highs and 294 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.86 billion shares, compared with the 12.48 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251179244","content_text":"JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley report profit missPPI surges more than expected in JuneConagra Brands falls on downbeat forecastDow down 0.46%, S&P off 0.30%, Nasdaq up 0.03%(Reuters) - The S&P 500 pared early losses to close modestly lower on Thursday after investors digested disappointing quarterly results from two large U.S. banks and hotter-than-expected inflation data.Initially, all three major U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply in the wake of second-quarter earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley. Both reported slumping profits and warned of impending economic slowdown.Losses narrowed as the session wore on, with advancing microchip stocks    helping nudge the Nasdaq Composite Index to a nominal gain.\"There was an irrational response to the JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley results,\" said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and portfolio manager at InfraCap in New York. \"It wasn't a surprise that investment banking was weak.\"\"JPMorgan warned that there's uncertainty in the market, but if you're alive and breathing you know there’s uncertainty in the market.\"JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon struck a cautious note on the global economy while Morgan Stanley's investment banking unit struggled to cope with a slump in global dealmaking.Shares of JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley fell 3.5% and 0.4%, respectively, while the S&P Banks index shed 2.4%.Slowdown worries were exacerbated as the Labor Department's Producer Price Index report echoed Wednesday's Consumer Price Index data, showing hotter-than-expected inflation in June.The sell-off began to ease after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supported another 75 basis point interest rate increase in July, easing jitters over an even bigger, 100 basis point hike.\"The Fed is going to rise rates by 75 but they shouldn't,\" Hatfield said. \"The Fed has already done a lot to reduce inflation but they're not going to realize that until they see it in the rear view mirror.\"\"The thing to remember about the Fed is it's almost as if their third mandate is to be behind the curve,\" Hatfield added.On Wednesday, the odds of a larger hike grew after the CPI report, considering the central bank's intention to aggressively tackle decades-high inflation - a prospect which increases chances of an economic contraction.\"There will be a recession but a mild one,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The key component is continued strength in the labor market. Given where we are in the employment picture, that's not an immediate threat.\"Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, continues to ease from the March peak, although it remains well above the central bank's average annual 2% target:The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.62 points, or 0.46%, to 30,630.17, the S&P 500 lost 11.4 points, or 0.30%, at 3,790.38 and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.60 points, or 0.03%, at 11,251.19.Eight of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the day in negative territory, with financials    suffering the largest percentage loss, dropping 1.9%.Tech was the biggest gainer.With earnings season officially underway, analysts expect aggregate S&P 500 second-quarter year-on-year profit growth of 5.1%, far less than the 6.8% estimate at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv.U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingrose 2.9% following the chipmaker's upbeat revenue guidance.Conagra Brands    tumbled 7.2% after issuing an annual earnings forecast that came in below estimates.Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 3.11-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded nine new highs and 294 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.86 billion shares, compared with the 12.48 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022882755,"gmtCreate":1653518730177,"gmtModify":1676535294380,"author":{"id":"4112991481234062","authorId":"4112991481234062","name":"Ottie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5a7548abaa37f3d377b1bc8a4b7c599","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112991481234062","idStr":"4112991481234062"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022882755","repostId":"1182828365","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182828365","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1653517648,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182828365?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-26 06:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182828365","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes 'likely'Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlookNvidia Q2 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes &#39;likely&#39;</li><li>Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlook</li><li>Nvidia Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectations</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 0.60%, S&amp;P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.51%</li></ul><p>May 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest monetary policy meeting showed policymakers unanimously felt the U.S. economy was very strong as they grappled with reining in inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s May meeting, which culminated in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate - the biggest jump in 22 years - showed most of the committee&#39;s members judged that further such rate hikes would &#34;likely be appropriate&#34; at its upcoming June and July meetings.</p><p>&#34;The uniformity of opinion is a good thing,&#34; said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. &#34;There&#39;s a lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term.&#34;</p><p>&#34;By the time (the Fed) gets to September, they will have plenty of economic data to make their move from there, so they continue to maintain optionality,&#34; Mayfield added.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gyrated earlier in the day amid increasing jitters stemming from business and consumer surveys, economic data and corporate earnings reports suggesting a cooling American economy - even as the Fed prepares to toss a bucket of cold water on it to tackle decades-high inflation.</p><p>Fears that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession despite evidence that inflation peaked in March has fueled those concerns.</p><p>&#34;There’s some credence to the idea that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them,&#34; Mayfield said. &#34;There’s already a cooling occurring, and financial conditions have tightened over the last month because of dollar strength and equity market weakness.&#34;</p><p>On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to release its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to slow a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualized drop originally reported.</p><p>The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will follow on Friday, which will provide further clues regarding consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other indicators have suggested.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 191.66 points, or 0.6%, to 32,120.28, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 37.25 points, or 0.95%, to 3,978.73 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 170.29 points, or 1.51%, to 11,434.74.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the pack with a gain of 2.8%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc </a> provided the strongest lift to the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq, rising 2.6% and 4.9%, respectively.</p><p>Department store operator <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom Inc </a> surged 14.0% on the heels of its upbeat annual profit and revenue forecasts.</p><p>Fast-food chain <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEN\">Wendy&#39;s Co</a> jumped 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was considering a potential takeover bid for the company.</p><p>Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia Corp</a> fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company&#39;s second quarter revenue forecast missed expectations.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 255 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 13.27 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-26 06:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes &#39;likely&#39;</li><li>Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlook</li><li>Nvidia Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectations</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 0.60%, S&amp;P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.51%</li></ul><p>May 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest monetary policy meeting showed policymakers unanimously felt the U.S. economy was very strong as they grappled with reining in inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s May meeting, which culminated in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate - the biggest jump in 22 years - showed most of the committee&#39;s members judged that further such rate hikes would &#34;likely be appropriate&#34; at its upcoming June and July meetings.</p><p>&#34;The uniformity of opinion is a good thing,&#34; said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. &#34;There&#39;s a lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term.&#34;</p><p>&#34;By the time (the Fed) gets to September, they will have plenty of economic data to make their move from there, so they continue to maintain optionality,&#34; Mayfield added.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gyrated earlier in the day amid increasing jitters stemming from business and consumer surveys, economic data and corporate earnings reports suggesting a cooling American economy - even as the Fed prepares to toss a bucket of cold water on it to tackle decades-high inflation.</p><p>Fears that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession despite evidence that inflation peaked in March has fueled those concerns.</p><p>&#34;There’s some credence to the idea that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them,&#34; Mayfield said. &#34;There’s already a cooling occurring, and financial conditions have tightened over the last month because of dollar strength and equity market weakness.&#34;</p><p>On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to release its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to slow a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualized drop originally reported.</p><p>The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will follow on Friday, which will provide further clues regarding consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other indicators have suggested.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 191.66 points, or 0.6%, to 32,120.28, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 37.25 points, or 0.95%, to 3,978.73 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 170.29 points, or 1.51%, to 11,434.74.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the pack with a gain of 2.8%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc </a> provided the strongest lift to the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq, rising 2.6% and 4.9%, respectively.</p><p>Department store operator <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom Inc </a> surged 14.0% on the heels of its upbeat annual profit and revenue forecasts.</p><p>Fast-food chain <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEN\">Wendy&#39;s Co</a> jumped 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was considering a potential takeover bid for the company.</p><p>Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia Corp</a> fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company&#39;s second quarter revenue forecast missed expectations.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 255 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 13.27 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NVDA":"英伟达",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182828365","content_text":"Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes 'likely'Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlookNvidia Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectationsIndexes up: Dow 0.60%, S&P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.51%May 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting showed policymakers unanimously felt the U.S. economy was very strong as they grappled with reining in inflation without triggering a recession.The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's May meeting, which culminated in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate - the biggest jump in 22 years - showed most of the committee's members judged that further such rate hikes would \"likely be appropriate\" at its upcoming June and July meetings.\"The uniformity of opinion is a good thing,\" said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. \"There's a lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term.\"\"By the time (the Fed) gets to September, they will have plenty of economic data to make their move from there, so they continue to maintain optionality,\" Mayfield added.All three major U.S. stock indexes gyrated earlier in the day amid increasing jitters stemming from business and consumer surveys, economic data and corporate earnings reports suggesting a cooling American economy - even as the Fed prepares to toss a bucket of cold water on it to tackle decades-high inflation.Fears that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession despite evidence that inflation peaked in March has fueled those concerns.\"There’s some credence to the idea that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them,\" Mayfield said. \"There’s already a cooling occurring, and financial conditions have tightened over the last month because of dollar strength and equity market weakness.\"On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to release its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to slow a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualized drop originally reported.The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will follow on Friday, which will provide further clues regarding consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other indicators have suggested.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 191.66 points, or 0.6%, to 32,120.28, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 37.25 points, or 0.95%, to 3,978.73 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 170.29 points, or 1.51%, to 11,434.74.Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the pack with a gain of 2.8%.Amazon.com Inc  and Tesla Inc  provided the strongest lift to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, rising 2.6% and 4.9%, respectively.Department store operator Nordstrom Inc  surged 14.0% on the heels of its upbeat annual profit and revenue forecasts.Fast-food chain Wendy's Co jumped 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was considering a potential takeover bid for the company.Shares of Nvidia Corp fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company's second quarter revenue forecast missed expectations.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 255 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 13.27 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}