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vchong8

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- vchong8vchong8
  ·01-29
  it's one of the failures of a centrally planned economy. China is reflecting the same issues. In Japan's large cities, many own a car. The govt only made it prohibitively costly to drive one or park one. Largely becos, Japan makes cars and also many drive out of town for weekends. Singapore should review the auction based COE system. It does not reflect a caring society but one in favor of the wealthy. The rich can buy time but everyone else must wait for the next train or bus.
  Singapore's $200,000 Toyotas Fuel Angst Over Widening Wealth Gap
  Permit to own a car spiked at a record $112,000 last yearAffordability debate grows with elevated rents, inflationFor most of her life, Sabrina Vu had a car, even though you can’t drive far in her nat
  Singapore's $200,000 Toyotas Fuel Angst Over Widening Wealth Gap
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- vchong8vchong8
  ·2022-11-30
  Since this article, Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased by 3% and 5% respectively. Sell into the rally.
  Coinbase: In Trouble After The FTX/BlockFi Fiasco
  SummaryFTX and BlockFi are done, and the outlook for Coinbase sparks more questions than answers.The
  Coinbase: In Trouble After The FTX/BlockFi Fiasco
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- vchong8vchong8
  ·2022-11-03
  SOFI earnings surprised on the upside. With growth on track, the pullback after earnings release provides an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price.
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- vchong8vchong8
  ·2022-05-19
  $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$[Miser] Entry $29.30[Cool]
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- vchong8vchong8
  ·2022-05-19
  S&P close 20th May 3900
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China is reflecting&nbsp;the same issues. In Japan's large cities, many own a car. The govt only made it prohibitively costly to drive one or park one. Largely becos, Japan makes cars and also many drive out of town for weekends.&nbsp; Singapore should review the auction based COE system. It does not reflect a caring society but one in favor of the wealthy. The rich can buy time but everyone else must wait for the next train or bus.&nbsp;","listText":"it's one of the failures of a centrally planned economy. China is reflecting&nbsp;the same issues. In Japan's large cities, many own a car. The govt only made it prohibitively costly to drive one or park one. Largely becos, Japan makes cars and also many drive out of town for weekends.&nbsp; Singapore should review the auction based COE system. It does not reflect a caring society but one in favor of the wealthy. The rich can buy time but everyone else must wait for the next train or bus.&nbsp;","text":"it's one of the failures of a centrally planned economy. China is reflecting the same issues. In Japan's large cities, many own a car. The govt only made it prohibitively costly to drive one or park one. Largely becos, Japan makes cars and also many drive out of town for weekends. Singapore should review the auction based COE system. It does not reflect a caring society but one in favor of the wealthy. The rich can buy time but everyone else must wait for the next train or bus.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/268154058793040","repostId":"1148579351","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148579351","pubTimestamp":1706492906,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148579351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-29 09:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore's $200,000 Toyotas Fuel Angst Over Widening Wealth Gap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148579351","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Permit to own a car spiked at a record $112,000 last yearAffordability debate grows with elevated rents, inflationFor most of her life, Sabrina Vu had a car, even though you can’t drive far in her nat","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Permit to own a car spiked at a record $112,000 last year</p></li><li><p>Affordability debate grows with elevated rents, inflation</p></li></ul><p>For most of her life, Sabrina Vu had a car, even though you can’t drive far in her native Singapore, a city-state about a quarter of the size of Rhode Island.</p><p>But when she went to the showroom for the first time in six years and realized she’d have to shell out the price of an Aston Martin in most countries for a Toyota in the Asian financial hub, she thought again.</p><p>“When we went into the Toyota dealership, they were asking S$260,000 ($193,870) for a hybrid,” she said, giving the price for the car and the permit that’s necessary to drive it in Singapore. “I mean, it’s not even a luxury car,” said the communications manager, 35.</p><p>Singapore’s vehicle ownership cost — already a global outlier — remains not far from a record high, as the government’s zero-growth approach to registering new cars collided with demand from the island-state’s burgeoning rich.</p><p>The price of the vehicle includes the cost of a Certificate of Entitlement — a permit granting the right to own and use a car in Singapore for 10 years. The COE rate is set at an auction every two weeks and has almost quadrupled in three years to reach S$150,000 in October for cars with engines larger than 1.6 liters.</p><p>COE prices cooled off recently after the government increased the number of permits for sale, but they remain vulnerable to sudden spikes. On Jan. 17, the premium surged 32% to S$112,000 for larger cars in the busy period before the Lunar New Year.</p><p>That’s adding to a broader debate around elevated rents, inflation, and an influx of wealthy foreigners in recent years. Singapore’s high living cost is by far the most important issue facing the city-state, according to a survey of residents published in October. The government’s handling of the wealth gap and the price of cars are among the issues they were most dissatisfied with, according to the survey.</p><h3 id=\"id_2217787695\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wealth Gap</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“COE prices, like many other things actually, emphasize the wealth gap in Singapore,” said Victor Kwan, a senior lecturer at Singapore University of Social Sciences. “If it continues to go up, there will be growing frustration.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The island-state is the world’s priciest place to own some of the most popular cars, according to cost-of-living data from Numbeo, an online database. What’s more, COEs are unlikely to come down significantly due to constant demand, said Vinod Cherumadathil, the managing director of Sgcarmart, a local online car marketplace owned by the financial arm of Toyota Motor Corp.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e973c7f3b04c5b41f7a2f42f3a17e633\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"699\"/></p><p>Still, driving in Singapore was never meant to be cheap. Since 1990, the government has controlled the number of cars on the road and in 2018, adopted a zero-growth policy for the vehicle population.</p><p>For most people, it’s also not essential. The city-state has excellent public transport links by bus and subway. The proportion of car-owning resident households has fallen from 40% in 2013 to about one-third in recent years. But owning a car is still seen as a symbol of wealth that many strive toward.</p><p>“I know people who would eat less, eat cheaper, not go out as often to save up for a branded bag or a nice car, because it is almost like a status thing,” said Vu, the prospective buyer.</p><p>Net worth per adult rose 6.3% in Singapore in 2022, giving the city-state more than 300,000 US dollar millionaires, according to UBS Group AG’s global wealth report. Still, COE prices for small cars more than doubled between 2018 and 2023, while median monthly income rose just 2.4%. A worker on a median salary of S$5,197 per month would need to spend about three years’ wages to buy a Toyota sedan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8f526ed31993c8b584b89d6cd327b9\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"721\"/></p><p>In May, authorities committed to bringing forward 6,000 permits to cool the market, but that failed to arrest prices, prompting the minister in November to pledge to bring forward further the quota of permits to address a trough in supply.</p><p>The Ministry of Transport declined to comment in response to emailed questions from Bloomberg News concerning its views on the spike in COE prices and the question of affordability. In a reply to questions in Parliament on Nov. 6, then-acting Minister Chee Hong Tat said the ministry “understands the concerns of Singaporeans regarding high COE prices.”</p><p>A representative for Inchcape, a distributor for Toyota in Singapore, didn’t respond to emails from Bloomberg News seeking an interview.</p><p>For many Singaporeans, a car remains an important part of their lifestyle. At the Singapore Motorshow earlier this month, Abu Bakar bin Isnin, 64, was mulling purchasing a new vehicle despite a new COE permit costing about twice the price of his nearly expired one.</p><p>“It’s not a luxury, it’s a necessity,” said Abu Bakar, who plans to drive his grandchildren around after retiring from his job as a manager. “People buy cars because it’s necessary to bring your family around, your own family comes first.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore's $200,000 Toyotas Fuel Angst Over Widening Wealth Gap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore's $200,000 Toyotas Fuel Angst Over Widening Wealth Gap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-29 09:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/singapore-s-200-000-toyotas-fuel-angst-over-widening-wealth-gap?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Permit to own a car spiked at a record $112,000 last yearAffordability debate grows with elevated rents, inflationFor most of her life, Sabrina Vu had a car, even though you can’t drive far in her ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/singapore-s-200-000-toyotas-fuel-angst-over-widening-wealth-gap?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/singapore-s-200-000-toyotas-fuel-angst-over-widening-wealth-gap?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148579351","content_text":"Permit to own a car spiked at a record $112,000 last yearAffordability debate grows with elevated rents, inflationFor most of her life, Sabrina Vu had a car, even though you can’t drive far in her native Singapore, a city-state about a quarter of the size of Rhode Island.But when she went to the showroom for the first time in six years and realized she’d have to shell out the price of an Aston Martin in most countries for a Toyota in the Asian financial hub, she thought again.“When we went into the Toyota dealership, they were asking S$260,000 ($193,870) for a hybrid,” she said, giving the price for the car and the permit that’s necessary to drive it in Singapore. “I mean, it’s not even a luxury car,” said the communications manager, 35.Singapore’s vehicle ownership cost — already a global outlier — remains not far from a record high, as the government’s zero-growth approach to registering new cars collided with demand from the island-state’s burgeoning rich.The price of the vehicle includes the cost of a Certificate of Entitlement — a permit granting the right to own and use a car in Singapore for 10 years. The COE rate is set at an auction every two weeks and has almost quadrupled in three years to reach S$150,000 in October for cars with engines larger than 1.6 liters.COE prices cooled off recently after the government increased the number of permits for sale, but they remain vulnerable to sudden spikes. On Jan. 17, the premium surged 32% to S$112,000 for larger cars in the busy period before the Lunar New Year.That’s adding to a broader debate around elevated rents, inflation, and an influx of wealthy foreigners in recent years. Singapore’s high living cost is by far the most important issue facing the city-state, according to a survey of residents published in October. The government’s handling of the wealth gap and the price of cars are among the issues they were most dissatisfied with, according to the survey.Wealth Gap“COE prices, like many other things actually, emphasize the wealth gap in Singapore,” said Victor Kwan, a senior lecturer at Singapore University of Social Sciences. “If it continues to go up, there will be growing frustration.”The island-state is the world’s priciest place to own some of the most popular cars, according to cost-of-living data from Numbeo, an online database. What’s more, COEs are unlikely to come down significantly due to constant demand, said Vinod Cherumadathil, the managing director of Sgcarmart, a local online car marketplace owned by the financial arm of Toyota Motor Corp.Still, driving in Singapore was never meant to be cheap. Since 1990, the government has controlled the number of cars on the road and in 2018, adopted a zero-growth policy for the vehicle population.For most people, it’s also not essential. The city-state has excellent public transport links by bus and subway. The proportion of car-owning resident households has fallen from 40% in 2013 to about one-third in recent years. But owning a car is still seen as a symbol of wealth that many strive toward.“I know people who would eat less, eat cheaper, not go out as often to save up for a branded bag or a nice car, because it is almost like a status thing,” said Vu, the prospective buyer.Net worth per adult rose 6.3% in Singapore in 2022, giving the city-state more than 300,000 US dollar millionaires, according to UBS Group AG’s global wealth report. Still, COE prices for small cars more than doubled between 2018 and 2023, while median monthly income rose just 2.4%. A worker on a median salary of S$5,197 per month would need to spend about three years’ wages to buy a Toyota sedan.In May, authorities committed to bringing forward 6,000 permits to cool the market, but that failed to arrest prices, prompting the minister in November to pledge to bring forward further the quota of permits to address a trough in supply.The Ministry of Transport declined to comment in response to emailed questions from Bloomberg News concerning its views on the spike in COE prices and the question of affordability. In a reply to questions in Parliament on Nov. 6, then-acting Minister Chee Hong Tat said the ministry “understands the concerns of Singaporeans regarding high COE prices.”A representative for Inchcape, a distributor for Toyota in Singapore, didn’t respond to emails from Bloomberg News seeking an interview.For many Singaporeans, a car remains an important part of their lifestyle. At the Singapore Motorshow earlier this month, Abu Bakar bin Isnin, 64, was mulling purchasing a new vehicle despite a new COE permit costing about twice the price of his nearly expired one.“It’s not a luxury, it’s a necessity,” said Abu Bakar, who plans to drive his grandchildren around after retiring from his job as a manager. “People buy cars because it’s necessary to bring your family around, your own family comes first.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962529530,"gmtCreate":1669810630820,"gmtModify":1676538247866,"author":{"id":"4114838310976802","authorId":"4114838310976802","name":"vchong8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/239af25e56373b957e3c4bf76ed861e0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Since this article, Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased by 3% and 5% respectively. Sell into the rally.&nbsp;","listText":"Since this article, Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased by 3% and 5% respectively. Sell into the rally.&nbsp;","text":"Since this article, Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased by 3% and 5% respectively. Sell into the rally.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962529530","repostId":"2287636440","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2287636440","pubTimestamp":1669790471,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2287636440?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-30 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase: In Trouble After The FTX/BlockFi Fiasco","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287636440","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryFTX and BlockFi are done, and the outlook for Coinbase sparks more questions than answers.The","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>FTX and BlockFi are done, and the outlook for Coinbase sparks more questions than answers.</li><li>There&#39;s a problem with the company&#39;s business model: it doesn&#39;t work in the current environment.</li><li>Avoid the stock given valuation is closely tied to crypto, which in my opinion is based on nothing but thin air.</li></ul><h2>BlockFi: another one caught swimming naked</h2><p>2022 is a brutal year where many crypto bulls have been caught swimming naked. Luna (LUNC-USD) is done. 3AC is done. Celsius (CEL-USD) is done. Voyager (VYGVQ-USD) is done. Following the latest FTX (FTT-USD) scandal by crypto wonderkid Sam Bankman-Fried, BlockFi just filed for Chapter 11 as traders removed $6 billion from the platform within 3 days and Binance (BNB-USD) did not come to rescue.</p><p>According to the bankruptcy filing, BlockFi&#39;s substantial exposure to FTX and Alameda Research was the culprit where Alameda defaulted on ~$680 million of collateralized loan obligations to BlockFi. Despite pausing user withdrawals, BlockFi was not able to overcome the liquidity crisis and had to sell its crypto holdings to raise $238.6 million in cash to fund the bankruptcy process. BlockFi owes almost $1.2 billion to its top 10 creditors, including Ankura Trust ($729 million), FTX US ($275 million), and the SEC ($30 million). Valar Ventures, a US VC fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, owns 19% of BlockFi.</p><p>BlockFi was founded in 2017 and saw phenomenal growth where LTM trading volume grew from just $2 million in 2019 to &gt;$23 billion in March 2022. During the same period, the platform&#39;s deployable assets increased from $345 million to almost $15 billion, while gross loan originations jumped from $687 million to &gt;$47 billion. Due to evaporating confidence in the crypto market, however, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>&#39;s lendable assets fell to &lt;$2 billion in November.</p><h2>Is Coinbase a safe haven?</h2><p>Let&#39;s start this section from a user perspective. You&#39;ve successfully avoided Celsius, Voyager, Gemini, FTX and BlockFi by putting all your Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Ethereum (ETH-USD), and Tether (USDT-USD) in Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). Does that guarantee the safety of your assets in the event that Coinbase files for bankruptcy? Not if you quickly skim through the company&#39;s most recent 10-Q where management disclosed the following:</p><blockquote>&#34;Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors.&#34;</blockquote><p>As of 3Q22, Coinbase had a total of $101.7 billion in custodial fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of customers. While Coinbase is clearly not FTX or BlockFi given its commitment to keep customer assets 1:1 (does not lend out client assets) and $5 billion of cash on the balance sheet, the broadening fallout in the entire crypto ecosystem has made investors seriously nervous about the safety of their holdings whichever platform they&#39;re on. Following the recent FTX disaster, Coinbase&#39;s trading volume spiked, but this was likely a result of users selling their cryptos entirely to avoid any further losses.</p><h2>Does Coinbase have a viable business model?</h2><p>Coinbase is a crypto exchange that makes money from transaction fees. In 2021, retail transactions represented over 80% of revenue, while institutional accounted for just over 4%. In the first 9 months of 2022, Coinbase&#39;s total revenue fell 52% YoY to $2.6 billion as retail transaction revenue dropped 55% to $1.9 billion, accounting for 75% of total revenue. Evidently, this is a highly volatile business that depends heavily on retail transactions, which in turn are heavily influenced by the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two most traded cryptocurrencies on Coinbase.</p><p>While Coinbase merely takes a cut of every transaction on the platform and should in theory benefit from increased volatility in the crypto market, this is completely not the case as seen in traditional exchanges such as CME (CME) and NYSE (ICE). With trading volume and revenue halved in 1Q-3Q22, Coinbase reported an operating loss in excess of $2 billion, operating cash flows of negative $4.8 billion, and diluted EPS of -$9.39 vs. $11.9 in 1Q-3Q21. Of course, there&#39;s always the good old stock-based compensation expense which came in at $1.1 billion.</p><p>Coinbase recorded total OPEX of $4.7 billion in the first 9 months of 2022, while total crypto market capitalization fell from $2.25 trillion to $900 billion. As of writing, the entire crypto market is now valued at $788 billion. With a market share of ~7% and ~$1.6 billion in quarterly expenses, Coinbase will need a significantly higher take rate (1.3% for retail and only 0.01% for institutional in 3Q22) and transaction volume to make the math work.</p><p>All told, the simple answer is that Coinbase is an expensive operation offering a commodity-like product in a shrinking market. While the business model could work in an easy monetary environment with free money, it is very unlikely to work in today&#39;s environment. Should Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain challenged, Coinbase is likely to do shareholders more harm than good. After the FTX collapse, there&#39;s also the concern that regulations in the crypto space will only become more restrictive/expensive going forward.</p><h2>What&#39;s the intrinsic value of Coinbase?</h2><p>The performance of Coinbase is very closely tied to the performance of crypto prices (most notably Bitcoin and Ethereum), therefore the intrinsic value of Coinbase&#39;s stock is only as good as where crypto will be in the future. Given there&#39;s really no scientific way of estimating the values of most cryptocurrencies (no revenues, earnings, dividends, interests, rental income, etc.), I believe prices are essentially supported by the greater fool theory. I therefore do not believe Coinbase can be valued by any convention metric such as P/S or EV/EBITDA. In other words, owning shares of Coinbase is equivalent to owning either Bitcoin or Ethereum.</p><h2>What to do with the stock?</h2><p>Coinbase is a sell on any rally given the crypto rout is nowhere near the end in my view. That said, it would be equally dangerous to short the stock just because prices can always rally for non-fundamental reasons (e.g. better-than-expected inflation). Perhaps the stock will work when the Fed pivots, but it&#39;s important to understand that interest rates will remain high as long as inflation does not fall back to the 2% policy target. Until there&#39;s a clear path that rates will again fall back to 0% and animal spirits are to return, avoid Coinbase at all costs.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase: In Trouble After The FTX/BlockFi Fiasco</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase: In Trouble After The FTX/BlockFi Fiasco\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-30 14:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561246-coinbase-in-trouble-after-ftx-blockfi-fiasco><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFTX and BlockFi are done, and the outlook for Coinbase sparks more questions than answers.There's a problem with the company's business model: it doesn't work in the current environment.Avoid ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561246-coinbase-in-trouble-after-ftx-blockfi-fiasco\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561246-coinbase-in-trouble-after-ftx-blockfi-fiasco","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2287636440","content_text":"SummaryFTX and BlockFi are done, and the outlook for Coinbase sparks more questions than answers.There's a problem with the company's business model: it doesn't work in the current environment.Avoid the stock given valuation is closely tied to crypto, which in my opinion is based on nothing but thin air.BlockFi: another one caught swimming naked2022 is a brutal year where many crypto bulls have been caught swimming naked. Luna (LUNC-USD) is done. 3AC is done. Celsius (CEL-USD) is done. Voyager (VYGVQ-USD) is done. Following the latest FTX (FTT-USD) scandal by crypto wonderkid Sam Bankman-Fried, BlockFi just filed for Chapter 11 as traders removed $6 billion from the platform within 3 days and Binance (BNB-USD) did not come to rescue.According to the bankruptcy filing, BlockFi's substantial exposure to FTX and Alameda Research was the culprit where Alameda defaulted on ~$680 million of collateralized loan obligations to BlockFi. Despite pausing user withdrawals, BlockFi was not able to overcome the liquidity crisis and had to sell its crypto holdings to raise $238.6 million in cash to fund the bankruptcy process. BlockFi owes almost $1.2 billion to its top 10 creditors, including Ankura Trust ($729 million), FTX US ($275 million), and the SEC ($30 million). Valar Ventures, a US VC fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, owns 19% of BlockFi.BlockFi was founded in 2017 and saw phenomenal growth where LTM trading volume grew from just $2 million in 2019 to >$23 billion in March 2022. During the same period, the platform's deployable assets increased from $345 million to almost $15 billion, while gross loan originations jumped from $687 million to >$47 billion. Due to evaporating confidence in the crypto market, however, Block's lendable assets fell to <$2 billion in November.Is Coinbase a safe haven?Let's start this section from a user perspective. You've successfully avoided Celsius, Voyager, Gemini, FTX and BlockFi by putting all your Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Ethereum (ETH-USD), and Tether (USDT-USD) in Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). Does that guarantee the safety of your assets in the event that Coinbase files for bankruptcy? Not if you quickly skim through the company's most recent 10-Q where management disclosed the following:\"Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors.\"As of 3Q22, Coinbase had a total of $101.7 billion in custodial fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of customers. While Coinbase is clearly not FTX or BlockFi given its commitment to keep customer assets 1:1 (does not lend out client assets) and $5 billion of cash on the balance sheet, the broadening fallout in the entire crypto ecosystem has made investors seriously nervous about the safety of their holdings whichever platform they're on. Following the recent FTX disaster, Coinbase's trading volume spiked, but this was likely a result of users selling their cryptos entirely to avoid any further losses.Does Coinbase have a viable business model?Coinbase is a crypto exchange that makes money from transaction fees. In 2021, retail transactions represented over 80% of revenue, while institutional accounted for just over 4%. In the first 9 months of 2022, Coinbase's total revenue fell 52% YoY to $2.6 billion as retail transaction revenue dropped 55% to $1.9 billion, accounting for 75% of total revenue. Evidently, this is a highly volatile business that depends heavily on retail transactions, which in turn are heavily influenced by the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two most traded cryptocurrencies on Coinbase.While Coinbase merely takes a cut of every transaction on the platform and should in theory benefit from increased volatility in the crypto market, this is completely not the case as seen in traditional exchanges such as CME (CME) and NYSE (ICE). With trading volume and revenue halved in 1Q-3Q22, Coinbase reported an operating loss in excess of $2 billion, operating cash flows of negative $4.8 billion, and diluted EPS of -$9.39 vs. $11.9 in 1Q-3Q21. Of course, there's always the good old stock-based compensation expense which came in at $1.1 billion.Coinbase recorded total OPEX of $4.7 billion in the first 9 months of 2022, while total crypto market capitalization fell from $2.25 trillion to $900 billion. As of writing, the entire crypto market is now valued at $788 billion. With a market share of ~7% and ~$1.6 billion in quarterly expenses, Coinbase will need a significantly higher take rate (1.3% for retail and only 0.01% for institutional in 3Q22) and transaction volume to make the math work.All told, the simple answer is that Coinbase is an expensive operation offering a commodity-like product in a shrinking market. While the business model could work in an easy monetary environment with free money, it is very unlikely to work in today's environment. Should Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain challenged, Coinbase is likely to do shareholders more harm than good. After the FTX collapse, there's also the concern that regulations in the crypto space will only become more restrictive/expensive going forward.What's the intrinsic value of Coinbase?The performance of Coinbase is very closely tied to the performance of crypto prices (most notably Bitcoin and Ethereum), therefore the intrinsic value of Coinbase's stock is only as good as where crypto will be in the future. Given there's really no scientific way of estimating the values of most cryptocurrencies (no revenues, earnings, dividends, interests, rental income, etc.), I believe prices are essentially supported by the greater fool theory. I therefore do not believe Coinbase can be valued by any convention metric such as P/S or EV/EBITDA. In other words, owning shares of Coinbase is equivalent to owning either Bitcoin or Ethereum.What to do with the stock?Coinbase is a sell on any rally given the crypto rout is nowhere near the end in my view. That said, it would be equally dangerous to short the stock just because prices can always rally for non-fundamental reasons (e.g. better-than-expected inflation). Perhaps the stock will work when the Fed pivots, but it's important to understand that interest rates will remain high as long as inflation does not fall back to the 2% policy target. Until there's a clear path that rates will again fall back to 0% and animal spirits are to return, avoid Coinbase at all costs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985249902,"gmtCreate":1667408552206,"gmtModify":1676537913077,"author":{"id":"4114838310976802","authorId":"4114838310976802","name":"vchong8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/239af25e56373b957e3c4bf76ed861e0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SOFI earnings surprised on the upside. With growth on track, the pullback after earnings release provides an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price.&nbsp;","listText":"SOFI earnings surprised on the upside. With growth on track, the pullback after earnings release provides an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price.&nbsp;","text":"SOFI earnings surprised on the upside. With growth on track, the pullback after earnings release provides an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985249902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021067662,"gmtCreate":1652975788756,"gmtModify":1676535200295,"author":{"id":"4114838310976802","authorId":"4114838310976802","name":"vchong8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/239af25e56373b957e3c4bf76ed861e0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$</a>[Miser]&nbsp;Entry $29.30[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$</a>[Miser]&nbsp;Entry $29.30[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$[Miser] Entry $29.30[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021067662","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023813027,"gmtCreate":1652893769369,"gmtModify":1676535182838,"author":{"id":"4114838310976802","authorId":"4114838310976802","name":"vchong8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/239af25e56373b957e3c4bf76ed861e0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"S&amp;P close 20th May&nbsp;3900","listText":"S&amp;P close 20th May&nbsp;3900","text":"S&P close 20th May 3900","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023813027","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}