To The Moon

Weekly SGX Gainers & Losers (4 April 2026) **April Dividend Safety Crisis |🦖EP1525 The STI touched 5,000 and every gainer this week looked like a win — until I ran the debt. Sembcorp's 60.4% debt-to-capital ratio and 2.5x interest coverage ratio are structural hazards dressed in a renewables narrative, while ValueMax's screener flashes a 5.4% five-year average yield that melts to 3.68% current — both failing my 4.7% forensic hurdle before we even stress-test the balance sheet. The only counters clearing the yield hurdle this week carried gearing that would disqualify them at the first forensic filter. In a 5,000-point STI era, the danger isn't obvious crashes — it's slow capital erosion hiding behind legacy yield numbers. With the six-month T-Bill at 1.46% and my 3.2% Forensic Floor de

OCBC Just Cut My 360 Account Rate Again — Am I Better Off As A Shareholder Instead? |🦖EP1524 Your 360 Account is paying you 1.95% while OCBC's shareholders collect a headline yield that most people haven't actually stress-tested. Strip out the 16-cent special dividend and the ordinary forward yield drops to roughly 3.8–3.9% — below my 4.7% forensic hurdle — while the NIM exited Q4 2025 at 1.84%, a signal, not a confirmed floor. The bank is not moving the goalposts; it is functioning exactly as designed, and your S$100,000 in deposits is funding that design. At a 5,000-point STI, the instinct to chase yield by switching from depositor to shareholder feels logical, but the forensic math demands discipline. A 1.95% savings yield already runs negative carry against the CPF OA's 2.5% baseline,

Haw Par Tiger Balm 3 Good 3 Red Flags - Forensic Deep Dive |🦖EP1523Haw Par sits on S$791M in cash yet pays a 2.37% yield — that is not conservative management, that is a structural income failure. The ICR of 185.9x eliminates every rate-risk argument, and the 0.87x Price-to-Book confirms the discount is real. But a sealed vault is not a dividend engine, and this forensic audit draws that line clearly.For the 2026 investor navigating a 5,000-point STI, capital preservation is not enough if your income engine stalls below the risk-free threshold. The 1.37% T-Bill sets the floor, my forensic floor sits at 3.2%, and my minimum hurdle is 4.7% — Haw Par's 2.37% fails every single test. You are absorbing equity risk for a 0.91% spread over government paper, and that is not protection, that is neg

Altman Z-Score The Math Behind Bankruptcies |🦖EP1514A company with zero long-term debt and S$8.2 on the Altman Z-Score scale isn't just "safe" — it's structurally untouchable in a way most retail investors never quantify. While the market fixates on yield percentages, the forensic lens reveals that Sheng Siong's cash-to-liability ratio builds a mathematical floor that survives supply shocks, rate cycles, and margin compression simultaneously. That is a very different conversation from what the annual report tells you.At a 5,000-point STI, the question isn't which stock pays the most — it's which stock won't destroy your capital while you wait. With T-Bills at 1.37% and my Forensic Floor at 3.2%, any holding needs to clear a 4.7% hurdle just to justify the structural risk. A distress-zone c

ST Engineering Trades At 73x PE | SGX Daily Pulse 02 Apr 2026 | 🦖EP1521The market sees a defence contract worth S$600 million and a growing order book — but the forensic ledger sees a 73.5x trailing PE, 230% above ST Engineering's own decade median. Free cash flow conversion runs at 28x price-to-FCF, and the dividend yield sits at 1.5%. That gap between narrative and numbers is where capital gets quietly destroyed.If you are managing CPF or SRS capital near retirement, you are absorbing a potential 50% haircut on a stock yielding 170 basis points below the 3.2% forensic floor — and roughly zero net premium above the risk-free T-Bill at 1.46%. The 4.7% hurdle exists precisely to price the risk you are actually taking. ST Engineering does not clear it. Yangzijiang, at 9.7x PE and 30% ROE, do

ST Engineering Trades At 73x PE | SGX Daily Pulse 02 Apr 2026 | 🦖EP1521 The market sees a defence contract worth S$600 million and a growing order book — but the forensic ledger sees a 73.5x trailing PE, 230% above ST Engineering's own decade median. Free cash flow conversion runs at 28x price-to-FCF, and the dividend yield sits at 1.5%. That gap between narrative and numbers is where capital gets quietly destroyed. If you are managing CPF or SRS capital near retirement, you are absorbing a potential 50% haircut on a stock yielding 170 basis points below the 3.2% forensic floor — and roughly zero net premium above the risk-free T-Bill at 1.46%. The 4.7% hurdle exists precisely to price the risk you are actually taking. ST Engineering does not clear it. Yangzijiang, at 9.7x PE and 30% ROE,

OCBC's NIM Floor — Is Your Bank Dividend Actually Safe? 🎙️Iggy Answers |🦖EP1519 The market sees a 1.86% NIM and calls it a floor — but one quarter of stability is a signal, not a confirmed trend. OCBC's Net Interest Margin has compressed from 2.31% to 1.86% over eighteen months, and the forensic question isn't whether the bleeding stopped; it's whether the wound stays closed across two consecutive quarters while non-performing loans and the S$2.5B capital return execution remain clean. At a 5,000-point STI, capital protection isn't optional — it's the filter. Singapore T-Bills sit at 1.37%, the Forensic Floor at 3.2%, and my personal hurdle at 4.7%. OCBC's reaffirmed 50% ordinary payout ratio clears that spread comfortably — but only if the NIM holds and the loan book doesn't crack under a

If The Market Drops Another 20% — Does Your SGX Portfolio Survive? The market celebrates record port throughput while jet fuel quietly bills your portfolio S$180–200 a barrel. That gap between gross volume and net margin is exactly where dividend sanctuaries go silent — and for SIA and DBS, the forensic numbers show the shock-absorption buffer is narrowing faster than the consensus expects. If you are stress-testing a 20% drawdown against a 4.7% SRS hurdle at a 5,000-point STI, you need more than optimism — you need a capital structure audit. The 1.37% T-Bill baseline and my 3.2% Forensic Floor exist precisely to expose which "defensive" Temasek counters are genuinely fortress-grade and which are just busy harbours bleeding margin. The risk you are taking must be paid for by a yield that c

If The Market Drops Another 20% — Does Your SGX Portfolio Survive? The market celebrates record port throughput while jet fuel quietly bills your portfolio S$180–200 a barrel. That gap between gross volume and net margin is exactly where dividend sanctuaries go silent — and for SIA and DBS, the forensic numbers show the shock-absorption buffer is narrowing faster than the consensus expects. If you are stress-testing a 20% drawdown against a 4.7% SRS hurdle at a 5,000-point STI, you need more than optimism — you need a capital structure audit. The 1.37% T-Bill baseline and my 3.2% Forensic Floor exist precisely to expose which "defensive" Temasek counters are genuinely fortress-grade and which are just busy harbours bleeding margin. The risk you are taking must be paid for by a yield that c

The April Yield Squeeze Begins At OCBC Today | SGX Daily Pulse 01 Apr 2026 |🦖EP1517 Cordlife's auditor didn't just raise a flag — they walked away entirely, making every yield figure and gearing ratio on that screen functionally unverifiable. First REIT's divestment drops gearing from 42.1% to a pro-forma 16.7%, yet DPU has fallen 18% since 2022, which means what looks like a balance sheet rescue is still a distribution in retreat. The numbers aren't lying; the narrative around them is. At a 1.37% T-Bill rate, the temptation is to chase anything with a pulse above 3%. But our Forensic Floor of 3.2% plus a 150 bps risk premium sets the real hurdle at 4.7% — and no asset clears that bar without a clean audit opinion and an ICR that actually protects your distributions. On S$100,000 in SRS ca