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aramis

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- aramisaramis
  ·2023-11-07
  I was falling asleep at office. Then there is this game!
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- aramisaramis
  ·2023-09-11
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
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- aramisaramis
  ·2023-09-05
  Historically Sep is a bad month for stocks. Tech already had a correction in AUG. Hope we see more upside before Oct comes. Then Christmas is a rally!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- aramisaramis
  ·2023-04-09
  Hi community, I have been trading CFD for some times. I would like to learn trading options strategy. Example, sell put covered call. Any recommends?
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- aramisaramis
  ·2023-03-23
  Fed's statement is so predictable and market has anticipated QT to stop with a more dovish statement from Fed. Fed needs more data to proof that inflation and employment has gone down. Unless we have a recession right away, talking about QE is just off grid.
  Fed Opts for Hike-and-See in Gamble That Crisis Will Stay Contained
  Less than two weeks after the second-biggest bank failure in US history, Federal Reserve Chair Jerom
  Fed Opts for Hike-and-See in Gamble That Crisis Will Stay Contained
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- aramisaramis
  ·2022-10-25
  Whats this?
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- aramisaramis
  ·2022-09-11
  Nice analysis! Much depends which party is in control of the lower and upp house after election. Current Incumbent is democrats.
  A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease
  If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an i
  A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease
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Then there is this game!&nbsp;","listText":"I was falling asleep at office. Then there is this game!&nbsp;","text":"I was falling asleep at office. 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Then Christmas is a rally!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216289806471296","repostId":"2364391771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946423577,"gmtCreate":1681027870899,"gmtModify":1681031742673,"author":{"id":"4117112726958172","authorId":"4117112726958172","name":"aramis","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1bcc3e41f730b83c36c171afe55d9dd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117112726958172","authorIdStr":"4117112726958172"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi community, I have been trading CFD for some times. I would like to learn trading options strategy.&nbsp; Example,&nbsp;sell put covered call.&nbsp;Any recommends?&nbsp;","listText":"Hi community, I have been trading CFD for some times. I would like to learn trading options strategy.&nbsp; Example,&nbsp;sell put covered call.&nbsp;Any recommends?&nbsp;","text":"Hi community, I have been trading CFD for some times. I would like to learn trading options strategy. Example, sell put covered call. Any recommends?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946423577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943596909,"gmtCreate":1679535289802,"gmtModify":1679535411669,"author":{"id":"4117112726958172","authorId":"4117112726958172","name":"aramis","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1bcc3e41f730b83c36c171afe55d9dd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117112726958172","authorIdStr":"4117112726958172"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed's statement is so predictable and market has anticipated QT to stop with a more dovish statement from Fed. Fed needs more data to proof that inflation and employment has gone down. Unless we have a recession right away, talking about QE is just off grid.&nbsp;","listText":"Fed's statement is so predictable and market has anticipated QT to stop with a more dovish statement from Fed. Fed needs more data to proof that inflation and employment has gone down. Unless we have a recession right away, talking about QE is just off grid.&nbsp;","text":"Fed's statement is so predictable and market has anticipated QT to stop with a more dovish statement from Fed. Fed needs more data to proof that inflation and employment has gone down. Unless we have a recession right away, talking about QE is just off grid.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943596909","repostId":"1150004780","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150004780","pubTimestamp":1679533261,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150004780?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-23 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Opts for Hike-and-See in Gamble That Crisis Will Stay Contained","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150004780","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Less than two weeks after the second-biggest bank failure in US history, Federal Reserve Chair Jerom","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Less than two weeks after the second-biggest bank failure in US history, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that inflation remains policymakers’ top concern.</p><p>The Fed chief advised that more Fed tightening may be in store after Wednesday’s interest-rate hike, and that the central bank will raise rates higher than expected if needed. In a press briefing, he also said officials don’t expect to be cutting rates this year — even as the bond market showed traders doubling down on that outcome.</p><p>Officials are making a calculated risk that, while the recent banking turmoil will likely slow the economy, it won’t mushroom into a broader financial meltdown. While their predecessors got a similar calculation wrong in 2007, regulators are counting on higher capital and liquidity standards, and a more muscular response, to ring-fence problems today.</p><p>“They think they have the tools in place to contain the turmoil in the banking system,” Wells Fargo Chief Economist Jay Bryson said. “There certainly is a risk that this could be a bad decision.”</p><p>Powell, during the press conference Wednesday, repeatedly noted uncertainty about the spillover effects from the banking-sector problems on lending. He also shared his impression of the speed at which events unfolded, with “a very fast run” on Silicon Valley Bank that left regulators asking themselves, two weekends back, “How did this happen?”</p><p>The Fed at that time declared “unusual and exigent” circumstances in launching an emergency cash facility for banks to help limit contagion from SVB’s downfall. Fast forward to Wednesday, and Powell assured that regulators’ actions demonstrated “all depositors’ savings are safe,” as is the banking system more broadly.</p><p>One complication emerged, however: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a Senate hearing the same time as Powell’s press conference said that regulators aren’t looking to provide “blanket” deposit insurance.</p><p>Those comments contributed to a selloff in equities, with the KBW Bank Index sliding after a two-day rally — showcasing continued nervousness about financial risks.</p><p>What Bloomberg Economics Says...</p><p>The Fed weighed the pros and cons of a wait-and-see approach against a continuation of hikes, and chose the latter. That signals an unconditional commitment to the price-stability leg of the Fed’s dual mandate. We think they made the right decision.</p><p>— Anna Wong, Stuart Paul and Eliza Winger (economists)</p><p>Powell reflected that same uncertainty. “It is possible this will have very modest effects on the economy and inflation will continue to be strong,” he said — in which case the Fed might raise rates beyond a range of 5% to 5.25%, officials’ current median estimate for the peak.</p><p>It is also possible, he said, that a pullback in lending contributes to lower consumption and demand. “That means monetary policy may have less work to do.”</p><p>What’s missing from the coin-toss outlook is a third scenario: unemployment starts to rise amid an already-fragile financial system, triggering defaults on loans by newly income-constrained households, amplifying stress inside banks.</p><p>“This has been the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle for 40 years and by going harder and faster into restrictive territory you naturally have less control over the outcome,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “This heightens the chances of economic and financial stress.”</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase its target for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since September 2007, when rates were at their peak on the eve of the financial crisis.</p><p>“A key takeaway was how uncertain Powell and the FOMC seem to be on the extent, duration and impact of tightening of bank lending standards,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Life Insurance Co.</p><p>Bostjancic said Wednesday’s rate increase could have been influenced by markets having mostly priced it in. Powell revealed that officials had considered a pause “in the days running up to the meeting.”</p><p>It’s the second straight increase of 25 basis points following a string of aggressive moves starting in March 2022, when rates were near zero.</p><p>“What we know is inflation is too high,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Hermes. “This Powell Fed in our view has quite literally ripped a page from Paul Volcker’s playbook 40 years ago and they are going to do what they need to do to get inflation back to target.”</p><p>The aggressive yearlong campaign is partly the result of the Fed’s own failing to get ahead of inflation when price gains began to accelerate in 2021. By last year, it had jumped to 40-year highs.</p><p>Inflation reports for the first two months of the year were still hot, with the consumer price index rising 6.4% and 6% in January and February on an annual basis.</p><p>Hiring also continued at a blistering pace with payrolls rising by more than 800,000 in the first two months.</p><p>For all that, though, futures markets forecast the Fed will start cutting rates as soon as this year — which is to say they see something close to a recession.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Opts for Hike-and-See in Gamble That Crisis Will Stay Contained</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Opts for Hike-and-See in Gamble That Crisis Will Stay Contained\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-23 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-opts-hike-see-gamble-224156796.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Less than two weeks after the second-biggest bank failure in US history, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that inflation remains policymakers’ top concern.The Fed chief advised that more...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-opts-hike-see-gamble-224156796.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-opts-hike-see-gamble-224156796.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150004780","content_text":"Less than two weeks after the second-biggest bank failure in US history, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that inflation remains policymakers’ top concern.The Fed chief advised that more Fed tightening may be in store after Wednesday’s interest-rate hike, and that the central bank will raise rates higher than expected if needed. In a press briefing, he also said officials don’t expect to be cutting rates this year — even as the bond market showed traders doubling down on that outcome.Officials are making a calculated risk that, while the recent banking turmoil will likely slow the economy, it won’t mushroom into a broader financial meltdown. While their predecessors got a similar calculation wrong in 2007, regulators are counting on higher capital and liquidity standards, and a more muscular response, to ring-fence problems today.“They think they have the tools in place to contain the turmoil in the banking system,” Wells Fargo Chief Economist Jay Bryson said. “There certainly is a risk that this could be a bad decision.”Powell, during the press conference Wednesday, repeatedly noted uncertainty about the spillover effects from the banking-sector problems on lending. He also shared his impression of the speed at which events unfolded, with “a very fast run” on Silicon Valley Bank that left regulators asking themselves, two weekends back, “How did this happen?”The Fed at that time declared “unusual and exigent” circumstances in launching an emergency cash facility for banks to help limit contagion from SVB’s downfall. Fast forward to Wednesday, and Powell assured that regulators’ actions demonstrated “all depositors’ savings are safe,” as is the banking system more broadly.One complication emerged, however: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a Senate hearing the same time as Powell’s press conference said that regulators aren’t looking to provide “blanket” deposit insurance.Those comments contributed to a selloff in equities, with the KBW Bank Index sliding after a two-day rally — showcasing continued nervousness about financial risks.What Bloomberg Economics Says...The Fed weighed the pros and cons of a wait-and-see approach against a continuation of hikes, and chose the latter. That signals an unconditional commitment to the price-stability leg of the Fed’s dual mandate. We think they made the right decision.— Anna Wong, Stuart Paul and Eliza Winger (economists)Powell reflected that same uncertainty. “It is possible this will have very modest effects on the economy and inflation will continue to be strong,” he said — in which case the Fed might raise rates beyond a range of 5% to 5.25%, officials’ current median estimate for the peak.It is also possible, he said, that a pullback in lending contributes to lower consumption and demand. “That means monetary policy may have less work to do.”What’s missing from the coin-toss outlook is a third scenario: unemployment starts to rise amid an already-fragile financial system, triggering defaults on loans by newly income-constrained households, amplifying stress inside banks.“This has been the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle for 40 years and by going harder and faster into restrictive territory you naturally have less control over the outcome,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “This heightens the chances of economic and financial stress.”The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase its target for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest since September 2007, when rates were at their peak on the eve of the financial crisis.“A key takeaway was how uncertain Powell and the FOMC seem to be on the extent, duration and impact of tightening of bank lending standards,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Life Insurance Co.Bostjancic said Wednesday’s rate increase could have been influenced by markets having mostly priced it in. Powell revealed that officials had considered a pause “in the days running up to the meeting.”It’s the second straight increase of 25 basis points following a string of aggressive moves starting in March 2022, when rates were near zero.“What we know is inflation is too high,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Hermes. “This Powell Fed in our view has quite literally ripped a page from Paul Volcker’s playbook 40 years ago and they are going to do what they need to do to get inflation back to target.”The aggressive yearlong campaign is partly the result of the Fed’s own failing to get ahead of inflation when price gains began to accelerate in 2021. By last year, it had jumped to 40-year highs.Inflation reports for the first two months of the year were still hot, with the consumer price index rising 6.4% and 6% in January and February on an annual basis.Hiring also continued at a blistering pace with payrolls rising by more than 800,000 in the first two months.For all that, though, futures markets forecast the Fed will start cutting rates as soon as this year — which is to say they see something close to a recession.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988183521,"gmtCreate":1666694957364,"gmtModify":1676537791145,"author":{"id":"4117112726958172","authorId":"4117112726958172","name":"aramis","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1bcc3e41f730b83c36c171afe55d9dd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117112726958172","authorIdStr":"4117112726958172"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whats this?&nbsp;","listText":"Whats this?&nbsp;","text":"Whats this?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f5db30167fc93da85ad8a0690e24b73d","width":"1080","height":"1450"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988183521","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932902432,"gmtCreate":1662860672926,"gmtModify":1676537151985,"author":{"id":"4117112726958172","authorId":"4117112726958172","name":"aramis","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1bcc3e41f730b83c36c171afe55d9dd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117112726958172","authorIdStr":"4117112726958172"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice analysis! Much depends which party is in control of the lower and upp house&nbsp; after election. Current&nbsp;Incumbent is democrats.&nbsp;","listText":"Nice analysis! Much depends which party is in control of the lower and upp house&nbsp; after election. Current&nbsp;Incumbent is democrats.&nbsp;","text":"Nice analysis! Much depends which party is in control of the lower and upp house after election. Current Incumbent is democrats.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932902432","repostId":"2266398293","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2266398293","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662857059,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266398293?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266398293","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November.</p><p>That should give some hope to beleaguered investors whose stock holdings have suffered double-digit losses so far this year. A meaningful rally could be just a few weeks away.</p><p>I&#39;m referring to the historical pattern in the stock market of pre-midterm weakness and post-midterm strength. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average  in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8dce7f85a1b3a6cc790f3a79ff21a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Though the date of the average in this chart is in October, the actual lows in the historical record can come earlier or later. Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. A good guess is that the low this year will be later, given the uncertainty about the election outcome -- especially in the U.S. Senate.</p><p>It&#39;s always possible that the pre-midterm low will occur in advance of Election Day. It wouldn&#39;t be inconsistent with the historical record for this year&#39;s low to have occurred the day after Labor Day, in fact. As of Sept. 9, the S&amp;P 500   was more than 4% higher than that low.</p><p>It&#39;s worth noting how remarkable it is for any pattern to emerge when averaging together many years worth of stock market gyrations. Though each year carves out a unique path, the highs and lows usually cancel each other out, leaving the average to be a gradual upward-sloping line. A pattern has to be quite pronounced in the historical data for a deviation to appear that is as stark as the one in the accompanying chart.</p><p>This pre- and post-midterm pattern is so pronounced that it is the source of the famous seasonal pattern known as the &#34;Halloween Indicator,&#34; according to which the stock market is strongest between Oct. 31 and May 1 and weakest the other six months of the year. Yet take away the six months before- and after mid-term elections and the Halloween Indicator disappears.</p><p>The underlying data appear in the table below. The cell marked with a single asterisk (*) refers to the current six-month period, while the cell marked with a double asterisk (**) corresponds to the six-month period that begins at the end of October 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200d68de48ef106579622d3fc32df9ff\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So if you are tempted to bet on the Halloween Indicator, your time is fast approaching. If you miss it, you won&#39;t have another chance until the 2026 midterms.</p><p>Credit for discovering that the Halloween Indicator traces to the months prior to and subsequent to the midterms goes to Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International, and Kam Fong Chan, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Queensland in Australia. Their research into this pattern appeared in July 2021 in the Journal of Financial Economics.</p><p>The likely source of the pattern, according to the researchers, is the uncertainty that exists prior to the midterms and the resolution of that uncertainty after the election. They note that it appears not to matter which party dominates Congress prior to the midterms and which becomes the majority party afterwards. The pattern exists, they believe, because the stock market craves certainty, even when the source of that certainty may not be in accord with every investor&#39;s political preferences.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-11 08:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November.</p><p>That should give some hope to beleaguered investors whose stock holdings have suffered double-digit losses so far this year. A meaningful rally could be just a few weeks away.</p><p>I&#39;m referring to the historical pattern in the stock market of pre-midterm weakness and post-midterm strength. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average  in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8dce7f85a1b3a6cc790f3a79ff21a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Though the date of the average in this chart is in October, the actual lows in the historical record can come earlier or later. Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. A good guess is that the low this year will be later, given the uncertainty about the election outcome -- especially in the U.S. Senate.</p><p>It&#39;s always possible that the pre-midterm low will occur in advance of Election Day. It wouldn&#39;t be inconsistent with the historical record for this year&#39;s low to have occurred the day after Labor Day, in fact. As of Sept. 9, the S&amp;P 500   was more than 4% higher than that low.</p><p>It&#39;s worth noting how remarkable it is for any pattern to emerge when averaging together many years worth of stock market gyrations. Though each year carves out a unique path, the highs and lows usually cancel each other out, leaving the average to be a gradual upward-sloping line. A pattern has to be quite pronounced in the historical data for a deviation to appear that is as stark as the one in the accompanying chart.</p><p>This pre- and post-midterm pattern is so pronounced that it is the source of the famous seasonal pattern known as the &#34;Halloween Indicator,&#34; according to which the stock market is strongest between Oct. 31 and May 1 and weakest the other six months of the year. Yet take away the six months before- and after mid-term elections and the Halloween Indicator disappears.</p><p>The underlying data appear in the table below. The cell marked with a single asterisk (*) refers to the current six-month period, while the cell marked with a double asterisk (**) corresponds to the six-month period that begins at the end of October 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200d68de48ef106579622d3fc32df9ff\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So if you are tempted to bet on the Halloween Indicator, your time is fast approaching. If you miss it, you won&#39;t have another chance until the 2026 midterms.</p><p>Credit for discovering that the Halloween Indicator traces to the months prior to and subsequent to the midterms goes to Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International, and Kam Fong Chan, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Queensland in Australia. Their research into this pattern appeared in July 2021 in the Journal of Financial Economics.</p><p>The likely source of the pattern, according to the researchers, is the uncertainty that exists prior to the midterms and the resolution of that uncertainty after the election. They note that it appears not to matter which party dominates Congress prior to the midterms and which becomes the majority party afterwards. The pattern exists, they believe, because the stock market craves certainty, even when the source of that certainty may not be in accord with every investor&#39;s political preferences.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266398293","content_text":"If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November.That should give some hope to beleaguered investors whose stock holdings have suffered double-digit losses so far this year. A meaningful rally could be just a few weeks away.I'm referring to the historical pattern in the stock market of pre-midterm weakness and post-midterm strength. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average  in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954).Though the date of the average in this chart is in October, the actual lows in the historical record can come earlier or later. Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. A good guess is that the low this year will be later, given the uncertainty about the election outcome -- especially in the U.S. Senate.It's always possible that the pre-midterm low will occur in advance of Election Day. It wouldn't be inconsistent with the historical record for this year's low to have occurred the day after Labor Day, in fact. As of Sept. 9, the S&P 500   was more than 4% higher than that low.It's worth noting how remarkable it is for any pattern to emerge when averaging together many years worth of stock market gyrations. Though each year carves out a unique path, the highs and lows usually cancel each other out, leaving the average to be a gradual upward-sloping line. A pattern has to be quite pronounced in the historical data for a deviation to appear that is as stark as the one in the accompanying chart.This pre- and post-midterm pattern is so pronounced that it is the source of the famous seasonal pattern known as the \"Halloween Indicator,\" according to which the stock market is strongest between Oct. 31 and May 1 and weakest the other six months of the year. Yet take away the six months before- and after mid-term elections and the Halloween Indicator disappears.The underlying data appear in the table below. The cell marked with a single asterisk (*) refers to the current six-month period, while the cell marked with a double asterisk (**) corresponds to the six-month period that begins at the end of October 2022.So if you are tempted to bet on the Halloween Indicator, your time is fast approaching. If you miss it, you won't have another chance until the 2026 midterms.Credit for discovering that the Halloween Indicator traces to the months prior to and subsequent to the midterms goes to Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International, and Kam Fong Chan, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Queensland in Australia. Their research into this pattern appeared in July 2021 in the Journal of Financial Economics.The likely source of the pattern, according to the researchers, is the uncertainty that exists prior to the midterms and the resolution of that uncertainty after the election. They note that it appears not to matter which party dominates Congress prior to the midterms and which becomes the majority party afterwards. The pattern exists, they believe, because the stock market craves certainty, even when the source of that certainty may not be in accord with every investor's political preferences.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000554","authorId":"9000000000000554","name":"IrmaBurke","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8c2eb1c079c85b43879eb951e8684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000554","authorIdStr":"9000000000000554"},"content":"I agree with you. Let's wait and see! Different political parties will adopt totally different policies.","text":"I agree with you. Let's wait and see! Different political parties will adopt totally different policies.","html":"I agree with you. Let's wait and see! Different political parties will adopt totally different policies."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}