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JackIzaro

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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·11-02
  Trump win the election ..Seem Harris not sure what’s going on 🙈
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·07-20
  I'm personally think this outage simply not a wild case . Hope crowdstrike carry out full investigation thru the whole entired tech teams. How can be happened ? Too fishy
  How a Routine CrowdStrike Update Crashed the World’s Computers
  A tiny file ricochetedaround the globe, exposing the global IT network’s fragility and the risks of industry consolidation.When Brendan Delaney, a doctor with the UK’s National Health Service, turned
  How a Routine CrowdStrike Update Crashed the World’s Computers
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·03-31
  Dear Tiger Clans , I'm just a very green Investor and small fund doing short trade on stock myself based on news , or market latest information. Unfortunately , didn't doing well for this first quarter 2024 . Total lost about $500 USD so far . Even AI stocks and cryto are front runner and hit almost peaks on chart . I've missed out ride . Hope to recover back for this 2nd quarter . Tiger cub 😎
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·03-22
  $48
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·02-17
  It will back to 25 mark . Depend on front and back pushing .[Cool]
  Palantir: Strong Momentum But Likely Still Below Market's Expectations
  My latest 'Sell' view on Palantir was premature; Q4 FY23 results have disproved my previous thesis on the stock. But, for a new host of reasons, I retain a 'Sell'.I recognize Palantir's exceptionally
  Palantir: Strong Momentum But Likely Still Below Market's Expectations
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·2023-01-21
  $99 won't go more then $150
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·2023-01-11
  $DJIA(.DJI)$
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·2023-01-09
  $DJIA(.DJI)$
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·2022-09-27
  $Golden Sun Education Group Limited(GSUN)$
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- JackIzaroJackIzaro
  ·2022-08-04
  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$View on NASDAQ(.IXIC)BullishBearish
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win the election ..Seem Harris not sure what’s going on 🙈","listText":"Trump win the election ..Seem Harris not sure what’s going on 🙈","text":"Trump win the election ..Seem Harris not sure what’s going on 🙈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366730519855128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329453478748304,"gmtCreate":1721438907474,"gmtModify":1721438916004,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm personally think this outage simply not a wild case . Hope crowdstrike carry out full investigation &nbsp;thru the whole entired&nbsp; tech teams. How can be happened ? Too fishy","listText":"I'm personally think this outage simply not a wild case . Hope crowdstrike carry out full investigation &nbsp;thru the whole entired&nbsp; tech teams. How can be happened ? Too fishy","text":"I'm personally think this outage simply not a wild case . Hope crowdstrike carry out full investigation thru the whole entired tech teams. How can be happened ? Too fishy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329453478748304","repostId":"1190305273","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190305273","pubTimestamp":1721436163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190305273?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-20 08:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How a Routine CrowdStrike Update Crashed the World’s Computers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190305273","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A tiny file ricochetedaround the globe, exposing the global IT network’s fragility and the risks of industry consolidation.When Brendan Delaney, a doctor with the UK’s National Health Service, turned ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A tiny file ricocheted around the globe, exposing the global IT network’s fragility and the risks of industry consolidation. </p></li></ul><p>When Brendan Delaney, a doctor with the UK’s National Health Service, turned up at his London clinic on Friday, he was expecting a busy day seeing patients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It had been two months since a devastating cyberattack had affected hospitals and clinics in southeast London. And doctors like Delaney, who’s also a professor at Imperial College London, were finally beginning to feel a return to normalcy. They could send off urgent blood tests again, and cybersecurity experts were making progress repairing and replacing information technology systems that had previously been shut down by a criminal hacker gang.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But just as he arrived, he saw the receptionist hurriedly gathering paper notepads and hunting for a business continuity plan. A system that doctors across England use to view patient records was suddenly not working.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This time the problem was not a ransomware gang. It was a company set up to protect people from hackers. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., one of the biggest makers of cybersecurity software, had pushed out a flawed update and set off a global IT meltdown, crippling airports, banks, stock exchanges and businesses around the world.</p><p>Incredibly, a tiny file — big enough to hold only a single web page image, according to experts — was responsible for the world’s biggest IT outage. Called “C-00000291*.sys,” it was buried in an update for CrowdStrike’s Falcon sensor product. The bad file caused an error in Microsoft Corp.’s Windows operating system, rendering computers inoperable and triggering the dreaded “blue screen of death.”</p><p>The incident exposed fragility in the global IT system on an unprecedented scale and highlighted the dangers of so many organizations and individuals becoming dependent on a handful of tech companies. If one of them has an outage or gets hacked, the fallout can ripple through wide swaths of the global economy. Microsoft dominates the personal computing business with its Windows operating system, while CrowdStrike has become the go-to vendor for thousands of companies and organizations looking to protect their most important systems from cyberattacks.</p><p>After Microsoft, CrowdStrike is the second-biggest maker of “modern endpoint protection” software and controls 18% of the $12.6 billion market, according to research firm IDC. The Austin-based company sells its products to 29,000 organizations around the world, so the outage likely affected millions of computers that could take weeks or longer to bring back online because they must be repaired manually.</p><p>“It’s a real mess,” said Saif Abed, a former NHS doctor and expert in cybersecurity and public health. “Crowdstrike has affected Microsoft, and the entire NHS is reliant on Microsoft. It’s a domino effect of potential failings.”</p><p>As the outages spread from Asia and Australia across Europe and to the US on Friday, George Kurtz, CrowdStrike’s co-founder and chief executive officer, apologized for the error. “This is not a security incident or cyberattack,” he said. “The issue has been identified, isolated, and a fix has been deployed.”</p><p>Kurtz didn’t specify how the flaw got into the update. But some longstanding critics of his industry already have a working theory. They say CrowdStrike and other cybersecurity companies have sacrificed basic, boring security principles while chasing bigger profits and trying to appease shareholders.</p><p>“It’s time for the industry to grow up and maybe slow down a bit,” said Federico “Fede” Charosky, founder and CEO of Edinburgh-based security services firm Quorum Cyber. “Some developer somewhere made a change and there was no analysis of what impact that change would have. There’s clearly a lack of quality assurance and testing and taking shortcuts in pursuit of speed. What this shows is that we’re delusional in our complete trust in the technologies that are so intrinsic to running everything.”</p><p>What happened on Friday is exceedingly rare, but CrowdStrike’s Kurtz has been here before. Back in 2010, he was the chief technology officer at antivirus software pioneer McAfee. In April of that year, McAfee published an update that mistakenly labeled a legitimate Windows file as infected and paralyzed computers at hospitals, schools and government agencies around the world.</p><p>The company yanked the flawed update just 16 minutes later, but by then it had been installed on computers at more than 1,600 customers, according to Dave DeWalt, who was McAfee’s CEO at the time and now runs a cybersecurity-focused venture capital firm. “We lost about 40% of our market capitalization that day,” DeWalt said in an interview, adding that the company sent close to 4,000 employees on planes to help affected customers recover from the incident.</p><p>McAfee ultimately recovered from the crisis, but employees at the time described it as extremely traumatic and humbling. Four months later, Intel Corp. announced that it was buying the company.</p><p>Cyber industry observers wonder if CrowdStrike will learn from its own mistake. Already some are saying the company had been asking for trouble. For years, CrowdStrike has attacked Microsoft for allowing hackers to penetrate its systems, and Kurtz has used those lapses as a selling point for his own products.</p><p>Shortly after the US government released a report taking Microsoft to task for a “cascade of security failures,” Kurtz pounced, citing its findings to investors on an earnings call and saying Microsoft’s issues prompted an “outpouring of requests” from potential customers. “There’s a widespread crisis of confidence among security and IT teams within the Microsoft security customer base,” he said.</p><p>“CrowdStrike has tried to bash Microsoft as much as they could and they were trying to profit from it,” Charosky said. “But nobody escapes when your company is such a massive part of the world’s infrastructure. This is karma. When a company graduates from being a startup to being critical national infrastructure, it needs to behave differently, and I don’t know if CrowdStrike has gone through that transition.”</p><p>Some online commentators have described CrowdStrike’s flawed update as the “malware of the year,” owing to the level of destruction it has wrought. The jokey comparison to hacker attack code has some grounding in reality. The recovery time for affected organizations could be weeks or longer, roughly similar to the amount of time it takes a large organization to rebuild its network after a ransomware attack, cybersecurity experts said.</p><p>The biggest challenge in bringing the computers back online is that CrowdStrike’s fix needs to be applied manually, computer by computer, by someone with administrative privileges — an exceptionally time-consuming process and particularly difficult in an era of remote work.</p><p>Michael Henry, co-founder and chairman of Plano, Texas-based cybersecurity services firm Accelerynt Inc., says one customer, a large US retailer, had to call in its entire IT staff and had them working round the clock updating some 6,000 affected computers by hand. The company expected it to take all weekend to restore critical systems, he said, and as much as three weeks before all systems are fully back online.</p><p>“It’s crazy. They’re triaging, they’re focusing on critical systems first,” Henry said. “It’s a retail operation, so they’re making sure the stores can come back up.”</p><p>Henry has a question that many people are asking in the wake of the outage: How did this happen?</p><p>“CrowdStrike has done more to disrupt global business than all the ransomware operators combined,” he said. “This is a demonstration of how much risk we’re carrying with this software that we’ve deployed to protect ourselves: If these guys get it wrong, they can take your business down.”</p><p>In a statement issued late Friday, Kurtz said: “As this incident is resolved, you have my commitment to provide full transparency on how this occurred and the steps we’re taking to prevent anything like this from happening again. We are working on a technical update and root cause analysis that we will share with everyone as well.”</p><p>Cybersecurity and legal experts say CrowdStrike is almost certain to be hit with lawsuits, financial costs and other penalties. The incident is also sure to spark a fresh conversation about the increasing concentration of power — and risk — in the hands of a few cybersecurity companies.</p><p>By Silicon Valley standards, the cybersecurity industry is relatively young, one that came of age in the era of worms and floppy-disk viruses and which two decades ago was dominated by two companies – Symantec and McAfee – whose antivirus products were focused on a strategy that now seems quaint, writing “signatures” to block known malware strains.</p><p>Today, attackers have gotten more advanced, and traditional antivirus software has fallen out of favor, ushering those legacy security makers off the stage. In their place, there’s demand for products that can detect a range of threats on PCs and automate the remediation of them.</p><p>The problem is that these technologies are largely controlled by Microsoft and CrowdStrike. Some experts, including Justin Cappos, a computer science professor at New York University, said he’s been warning that that consolidation in the security industry— and centralized decision-making that comes with it — can lead to big problems, a debate that’s happened elsewhere in tech.</p><p>“Big companies make big mistakes in the tech space,” he said in an interview. “A lot of the really bad security designs that we’ve seen have come out of efforts by major companies.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How a Routine CrowdStrike Update Crashed the World’s Computers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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And doctors like Delaney, who’s also a professor at Imperial College London, were finally beginning to feel a return to normalcy. They could send off urgent blood tests again, and cybersecurity experts were making progress repairing and replacing information technology systems that had previously been shut down by a criminal hacker gang.But just as he arrived, he saw the receptionist hurriedly gathering paper notepads and hunting for a business continuity plan. A system that doctors across England use to view patient records was suddenly not working.This time the problem was not a ransomware gang. It was a company set up to protect people from hackers. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., one of the biggest makers of cybersecurity software, had pushed out a flawed update and set off a global IT meltdown, crippling airports, banks, stock exchanges and businesses around the world.Incredibly, a tiny file — big enough to hold only a single web page image, according to experts — was responsible for the world’s biggest IT outage. Called “C-00000291*.sys,” it was buried in an update for CrowdStrike’s Falcon sensor product. The bad file caused an error in Microsoft Corp.’s Windows operating system, rendering computers inoperable and triggering the dreaded “blue screen of death.”The incident exposed fragility in the global IT system on an unprecedented scale and highlighted the dangers of so many organizations and individuals becoming dependent on a handful of tech companies. If one of them has an outage or gets hacked, the fallout can ripple through wide swaths of the global economy. Microsoft dominates the personal computing business with its Windows operating system, while CrowdStrike has become the go-to vendor for thousands of companies and organizations looking to protect their most important systems from cyberattacks.After Microsoft, CrowdStrike is the second-biggest maker of “modern endpoint protection” software and controls 18% of the $12.6 billion market, according to research firm IDC. The Austin-based company sells its products to 29,000 organizations around the world, so the outage likely affected millions of computers that could take weeks or longer to bring back online because they must be repaired manually.“It’s a real mess,” said Saif Abed, a former NHS doctor and expert in cybersecurity and public health. “Crowdstrike has affected Microsoft, and the entire NHS is reliant on Microsoft. It’s a domino effect of potential failings.”As the outages spread from Asia and Australia across Europe and to the US on Friday, George Kurtz, CrowdStrike’s co-founder and chief executive officer, apologized for the error. “This is not a security incident or cyberattack,” he said. “The issue has been identified, isolated, and a fix has been deployed.”Kurtz didn’t specify how the flaw got into the update. But some longstanding critics of his industry already have a working theory. They say CrowdStrike and other cybersecurity companies have sacrificed basic, boring security principles while chasing bigger profits and trying to appease shareholders.“It’s time for the industry to grow up and maybe slow down a bit,” said Federico “Fede” Charosky, founder and CEO of Edinburgh-based security services firm Quorum Cyber. “Some developer somewhere made a change and there was no analysis of what impact that change would have. There’s clearly a lack of quality assurance and testing and taking shortcuts in pursuit of speed. What this shows is that we’re delusional in our complete trust in the technologies that are so intrinsic to running everything.”What happened on Friday is exceedingly rare, but CrowdStrike’s Kurtz has been here before. Back in 2010, he was the chief technology officer at antivirus software pioneer McAfee. In April of that year, McAfee published an update that mistakenly labeled a legitimate Windows file as infected and paralyzed computers at hospitals, schools and government agencies around the world.The company yanked the flawed update just 16 minutes later, but by then it had been installed on computers at more than 1,600 customers, according to Dave DeWalt, who was McAfee’s CEO at the time and now runs a cybersecurity-focused venture capital firm. “We lost about 40% of our market capitalization that day,” DeWalt said in an interview, adding that the company sent close to 4,000 employees on planes to help affected customers recover from the incident.McAfee ultimately recovered from the crisis, but employees at the time described it as extremely traumatic and humbling. Four months later, Intel Corp. announced that it was buying the company.Cyber industry observers wonder if CrowdStrike will learn from its own mistake. Already some are saying the company had been asking for trouble. For years, CrowdStrike has attacked Microsoft for allowing hackers to penetrate its systems, and Kurtz has used those lapses as a selling point for his own products.Shortly after the US government released a report taking Microsoft to task for a “cascade of security failures,” Kurtz pounced, citing its findings to investors on an earnings call and saying Microsoft’s issues prompted an “outpouring of requests” from potential customers. “There’s a widespread crisis of confidence among security and IT teams within the Microsoft security customer base,” he said.“CrowdStrike has tried to bash Microsoft as much as they could and they were trying to profit from it,” Charosky said. “But nobody escapes when your company is such a massive part of the world’s infrastructure. This is karma. When a company graduates from being a startup to being critical national infrastructure, it needs to behave differently, and I don’t know if CrowdStrike has gone through that transition.”Some online commentators have described CrowdStrike’s flawed update as the “malware of the year,” owing to the level of destruction it has wrought. The jokey comparison to hacker attack code has some grounding in reality. The recovery time for affected organizations could be weeks or longer, roughly similar to the amount of time it takes a large organization to rebuild its network after a ransomware attack, cybersecurity experts said.The biggest challenge in bringing the computers back online is that CrowdStrike’s fix needs to be applied manually, computer by computer, by someone with administrative privileges — an exceptionally time-consuming process and particularly difficult in an era of remote work.Michael Henry, co-founder and chairman of Plano, Texas-based cybersecurity services firm Accelerynt Inc., says one customer, a large US retailer, had to call in its entire IT staff and had them working round the clock updating some 6,000 affected computers by hand. The company expected it to take all weekend to restore critical systems, he said, and as much as three weeks before all systems are fully back online.“It’s crazy. They’re triaging, they’re focusing on critical systems first,” Henry said. “It’s a retail operation, so they’re making sure the stores can come back up.”Henry has a question that many people are asking in the wake of the outage: How did this happen?“CrowdStrike has done more to disrupt global business than all the ransomware operators combined,” he said. “This is a demonstration of how much risk we’re carrying with this software that we’ve deployed to protect ourselves: If these guys get it wrong, they can take your business down.”In a statement issued late Friday, Kurtz said: “As this incident is resolved, you have my commitment to provide full transparency on how this occurred and the steps we’re taking to prevent anything like this from happening again. We are working on a technical update and root cause analysis that we will share with everyone as well.”Cybersecurity and legal experts say CrowdStrike is almost certain to be hit with lawsuits, financial costs and other penalties. The incident is also sure to spark a fresh conversation about the increasing concentration of power — and risk — in the hands of a few cybersecurity companies.By Silicon Valley standards, the cybersecurity industry is relatively young, one that came of age in the era of worms and floppy-disk viruses and which two decades ago was dominated by two companies – Symantec and McAfee – whose antivirus products were focused on a strategy that now seems quaint, writing “signatures” to block known malware strains.Today, attackers have gotten more advanced, and traditional antivirus software has fallen out of favor, ushering those legacy security makers off the stage. In their place, there’s demand for products that can detect a range of threats on PCs and automate the remediation of them.The problem is that these technologies are largely controlled by Microsoft and CrowdStrike. Some experts, including Justin Cappos, a computer science professor at New York University, said he’s been warning that that consolidation in the security industry— and centralized decision-making that comes with it — can lead to big problems, a debate that’s happened elsewhere in tech.“Big companies make big mistakes in the tech space,” he said in an interview. “A lot of the really bad security designs that we’ve seen have come out of efforts by major companies.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290207390335096,"gmtCreate":1711857958077,"gmtModify":1711857963121,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear Tiger Clans ,&nbsp; I'm just a very&nbsp;&nbsp;green Investor&nbsp; and small fund doing short trade on stock myself based on news , or market latest information.&nbsp; Unfortunately , didn't doing&nbsp;&nbsp;well for this first quarter 2024 . Total lost about $500 USD so far . Even AI stocks and cryto&nbsp; are front runner and hit almost peaks on chart . I've missed out ride .&nbsp; Hope to recover back for this 2nd quarter .&nbsp; Tiger cub 😎","listText":"Dear Tiger Clans ,&nbsp; I'm just a very&nbsp;&nbsp;green Investor&nbsp; and small fund doing short trade on stock myself based on news , or market latest information.&nbsp; Unfortunately , didn't doing&nbsp;&nbsp;well for this first quarter 2024 . Total lost about $500 USD so far . Even AI stocks and cryto&nbsp; are front runner and hit almost peaks on chart . I've missed out ride .&nbsp; Hope to recover back for this 2nd quarter .&nbsp; Tiger cub 😎","text":"Dear Tiger Clans , I'm just a very green Investor and small fund doing short trade on stock myself based on news , or market latest information. Unfortunately , didn't doing well for this first quarter 2024 . Total lost about $500 USD so far . Even AI stocks and cryto are front runner and hit almost peaks on chart . I've missed out ride . Hope to recover back for this 2nd quarter . Tiger cub 😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290207390335096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":286786466861192,"gmtCreate":1711038673055,"gmtModify":1711038675828,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$48","listText":"$48","text":"$48","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/286786466861192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274926988308592,"gmtCreate":1708158628330,"gmtModify":1708158633056,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It will back to 25 mark . Depend on front and back pushing .[Cool]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"It will back to 25 mark . Depend on front and back pushing .[Cool]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"It will back to 25 mark . Depend on front and back pushing .[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274926988308592","repostId":"2412660052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2412660052","pubTimestamp":1708149450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2412660052?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-17 13:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Strong Momentum But Likely Still Below Market's Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2412660052","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"My latest 'Sell' view on Palantir was premature; Q4 FY23 results have disproved my previous thesis on the stock. But, for a new host of reasons, I retain a 'Sell'.I recognize Palantir's exceptionally ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>My latest &#39;Sell&#39; view on Palantir was premature; Q4 FY23 results have disproved my previous thesis on the stock. But, for a new host of reasons, I retain a &#39;Sell&#39;.</p></li><li><p>I recognize Palantir&#39;s exceptionally strong operating momentum on both revenues and margin growth, driven by bootcamps with commercial enterprises.</p></li><li><p>However, an analysis of management&#39;s guidance vs consensus estimates suggests that a lot of the optimism is already &#39;priced in&#39;</p></li><li><p>Valuations are near their historical peak levels, leaving minimal margin of safety.</p></li><li><p>Technical analysis also makes the case for a bearish view on Palantir vs the S&amp;P500; however, I am flexible on this view and may change my mind if there is any technical sign of view invalidation.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2513471154\">Performance Assessment</h2><p>In my last coverage of Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), I had initially rated the stock a &#39;Neutral/Hold&#39;. On 25 January 2024 in a pinned comment, I revised my rating to a &#39;Sell&#39; before earnings as I had doubts on the quality of backlog growth as measured by remaining performance obligations (RPO). This view has not played out as Q4 FY23 results went the exact opposite of what I was expecting. As a result, the stock has surged +48.88% since my &#39;Sell&#39; view, compared to the S&amp;P500&#39;s (SPY) (SPX) +2.26% over the same period, implying a negative alpha of 46.62%.</p><h2 id=\"id_534081271\">Thesis</h2><p>I believe my &#39;Sell&#39; rating update was too early. And although the market proved my thesis wrong, I am retaining my &#39;Sell&#39; view as I believe the operating momentum - as strong as it may be - is ticking below the lofty expectations demanded of the stock given current valuations. Here&#39;s how I&#39;m viewing the key drivers of Palantir:</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>Deal flow validation of AIP and bootcamps is compelling</p></li><li><p>Palantir is de-risking revenues and steadily upgrading margins</p></li><li><p>Management&#39;s guidance is falling short of expectations</p></li><li><p>Valuations are near historical peak levels</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1810295563\">Deal flow validation of AIP and bootcamps is compelling</h2><p>Palantir talked about having bootcamps with commercial enterprises showcasing their artificial intelligence platform (AIP) in Q3 FY23. The commentary was optimistic from management, however, I noticed that despite the bullish talk, Palantir&#39;s backlog of work as measured by remaining performance obligations were not seeing any material tick up. This led me to believe that there was still some top-line risk as RPOs are a leading indicator of future revenues.</p><p>However, this has dramatically changed in Q4 FY23. The numbers match the bullish narratives:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9892ed1474c11eb6faaed5182e5a4b55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"/></p><p>Remaining Performance Obligations QoQ Increment (USD mn) (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>Q4 FY23 saw a massive $255 million QoQ tick up in RPOs, reversing the cumulative fall over the 4 quarters prior. Importantly, a good chunk (67%) of this increase is attributed to longer-dated RPOs recognized over more than a 12-month period:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53812d46898a80175ee997840062e6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>Remaining performance obligations recognized beyond NTM QoQ Increment (USD mn) (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>This tells me that commercial enterprises are committing to longer-term projects; a good sign of future revenue stability.</p><p>In Q4 FY23, much of the increased traction came from new commercial customers, which saw the largest QoQ increase of 45 customers in the company&#39;s publicly-listed history:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c543287a4a26b3cb8f88a1736ff718e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"302\"/></p><p>Commercial Customers Count (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>Commercial customer counts make up 75.5% of the overall customers mix (between commercial and government customers). Digging into this a bit deeper, we see that the US commercial enterprises are leading most of the increased traction here as the mix of US commercial customers jumped from 39.9% to 44.5%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1318f40324906fdaddc919e88cc781d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p>US Commercial Customers Mix (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>These numbers align with a key narrative shift from the company, revealing new insights about Palantir&#39;s growth path ahead. In the past, Palantir&#39;s management had often said their biggest competition is enterprises&#39; own internal IT departments. However, now they say &#34;that&#39;s certainly not the case anymore&#34;:</p><blockquote><p>You go to these meetings and they&#39;ll often be the IT person telling a CEO, like, &#34;Look, we have no choice. We need to install this quickly.&#34; And so there&#39;s a cultural shift in the U.S. <strong>I don&#39;t think outside the U.S. it&#39;s the case. But inside the U.S., people and IT are responsible for business value.</strong></p><p>- CEO Alexander Karp in the Q4 FY23 earnings call, Hunting Alpha&#39;s bolded highlight</p></blockquote><p>What&#39;s happening is these bootcamps are showing enterprises in a short amount of time (10 hours) that Palantir can build useful AI to aid in business decision making that their own internal companies and other IT service vendors cannot. Hence, the new insight I glean from this is that competitive intensity is actually decreasing for Palantir.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e886e4591af7130f2f8787d4058af5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p>Revenue YoY (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>Overall, I expect these deal signings and onboarding of new customers to materialize in higher revenue growth. The company&#39;s FY24 guidance of $2.66 billion at the midpoint of the range implies 20% growth YoY.</p><p>Most of this growth is expected to come from the US Commercial Segment, which currently makes up 21.5% of overall revenues. In FY24, US Commercial revenues are expected to be more than $640 million, implying an impressive acceleration of an already strong growth track to at least 40% YoY:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e60056d990203602e6adcb5da1820af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p>Commercial Revenue YoY (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><h2 id=\"id_2456614348\">Palantir is de-risking revenues and steadily upgrading margins</h2><p>As Palantir benefits from broader product adoption, it also de-risks its revenue stream. I believe Direct Commercial contracts are the best source of business for Palantir since selling to other enterprises may lead to more favorable pricing and working capital terms (something that may not work to Palantir&#39;s favor in government contracts). I anticipate this mix to climb up back toward 50% and higher in future:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae896228b8d03a1865dc94158d321b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p>Direct Commercial Contracts Revenue Mix (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>Another benefit is that Palantir&#39;s historically high customer concentration is expected to reduce as the company signs on a more diverse set of enterprise customers. I believe a 220bps QoQ jump in the concentration of outside top 20 tail-end customers from 51.6% to 54.8% is an initial sign of further revenue concentration de-risking ahead:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c7ea50bbe4eade86e338477243c3f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"/></p><p>Outside Top 20 Customers Mix (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>PLTR is also building upon its transition to profitability and increasing margins steadily:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04541b03a8f722584e5e63eccb150a23\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p>Normalized EBIT Margin (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>Steady-state profitability is nowhere close to being hit just yet reached as the incremental YoY normalized EBIT margins have been north of 80% for the last 3 quarters and north of 50% for the last 6 quarters.</p><h2 id=\"id_1114654583\">Management&#39;s guidance is falling short of expectations</h2><p>Clearly, Palantir&#39;s operating momentum is sky high. However, it seems the market&#39;s expectations are higher still. Q1 FY24 guidance stood at $617 million revenues and an implied 22.64% EBIT margin. However, both these numbers fell short of what Wall St consensus was expecting, as evidenced by the negative surprises:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8716db5d0c95202190fb44ca73686164\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>Revenue Guidance Surprise vs Consensus (Capital IQ, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47e180e9224618812b33e5fa59bc0f74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"464\"/></p><p>EBIT Margin Guidance Surprise vs Consensus (bps) (Capital IQ, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>This indicates that as bullish as Palantir&#39;s progress may be, much of the optimism is already priced in, especially when one considers the fact that:</p><h2 id=\"id_4086322246\">Valuations are near historical peak levels</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f675abbe174bfdc8cdbc1b3d6204625f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\"/></p><p>Palantir 1-yr fwd PE (Capital IQ, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>Palantir&#39;s 1-yr fwd PE stands at 77.2x. The average 1-yr fwd PE over the last 2 years has been 57.6x; near the middle of the range marked by ~80x peak valuations and ~40x trough valuations. So with Palantir trading near historical peak valuations, at almost a 35% premium to the average or median (58.7x) band, I believe there is limited margin of safety for buys, even when considering the strong growth track.</p><h2 id=\"id_1474729419\">Technical Analysis</h2><p><em>If this is your first time reading a Hunting Alpha article using Technical Analysis, you may want to read this post, which explains how and why I read the charts the way I do, utilizing principles of Flow, Location and Trap.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6796189f670494070779dad0d71fe668\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p>Technical Analysis of PLTR vs S&amp;P500 (TradingView, Hunting Alpha Analysis)</p><p>In the monthly relative chart of PLTR vs the S&amp;P500, I notice that the ratio prices are near a key resistance zone. I anticipate sellers to post a rejection off this area. Another thing I observe is that in this overall buy-swing (alpha-generating swing) that began in May 2023, there was no clear sign of seller capitulation via a sharp move down preceding the buys. I believe this lack of a V-shaped recovery increases the chances of a less sustainable and buyer led move that has the ability to continue and match record highs.</p><h2 id=\"id_4156504230\">Takeaway and Risk Mitigation</h2><p>Admittedly, my relative bearish view on Palantir vs the S&amp;P500 is mostly based on a belief of overextended valuations and a couple of negative surprises on company guidance. This view is at odds with some very impressing operating momentum metrics, including very healthy backlog (RPO) growth.</p><p>Typically, I&#39;ve learnt that it is generally risky to go against the trend of red-hot operating momentum. Hence, my risk mitigation plan is simple; if the relative chart of PLTR vs the S&amp;P500 shows a sustained break above the key monthly resistance level, then I will throw in the towel, accept defeat and revise my view. Because if this scenario plays out, then my main argument for being bearish the stock would be based on valuations alone. And how long can that go for? What if the stock continues to outperform? Holding on to the &#39;Sell&#39; view with the excuse of high valuations would be irresponsible in my view because the market can defy valuation-only arguments very easily.</p><p>Hence, <strong>I rate the stock a &#39;Sell&#39;</strong>, but with a flexible readiness to change my mind if need be.</p><h3 id=\"id_1604284927\">How to interpret Hunting Alpha&#39;s ratings:</h3><p>Strong Buy: Expect the company to outperform the S&amp;P500 on a total shareholder return basis, with higher than usual confidence</p><p>Buy: Expect the company to outperform the S&amp;P500 on a total shareholder return basis</p><p>Neutral/hold: Expect the company to perform in-line with the S&amp;P500 on a total shareholder return basis</p><p>Sell: Expect the company to underperform the S&amp;P500 on a total shareholder return basis</p><p>Strong Sell: Expect the company to underperform the S&amp;P500 on a total shareholder return basis, with higher than usual confidence</p><p>The typical time-horizon for my views is multiple quarters to around a year. It is not set in stone. However, I will share updates on my changes in stance in a pinned comment to this article and may also publish a new article discussing the reasons for the change in view.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Strong Momentum But Likely Still Below Market's Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Strong Momentum But Likely Still Below Market's Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-17 13:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670999-palantir-strong-momentum-but-still-below-markets-expectations><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>My latest 'Sell' view on Palantir was premature; Q4 FY23 results have disproved my previous thesis on the stock. But, for a new host of reasons, I retain a 'Sell'.I recognize Palantir's exceptionally ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670999-palantir-strong-momentum-but-still-below-markets-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4504":"桥水持仓","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670999-palantir-strong-momentum-but-still-below-markets-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2412660052","content_text":"My latest 'Sell' view on Palantir was premature; Q4 FY23 results have disproved my previous thesis on the stock. But, for a new host of reasons, I retain a 'Sell'.I recognize Palantir's exceptionally strong operating momentum on both revenues and margin growth, driven by bootcamps with commercial enterprises.However, an analysis of management's guidance vs consensus estimates suggests that a lot of the optimism is already 'priced in'Valuations are near their historical peak levels, leaving minimal margin of safety.Technical analysis also makes the case for a bearish view on Palantir vs the S&P500; however, I am flexible on this view and may change my mind if there is any technical sign of view invalidation.Performance AssessmentIn my last coverage of Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), I had initially rated the stock a 'Neutral/Hold'. On 25 January 2024 in a pinned comment, I revised my rating to a 'Sell' before earnings as I had doubts on the quality of backlog growth as measured by remaining performance obligations (RPO). This view has not played out as Q4 FY23 results went the exact opposite of what I was expecting. As a result, the stock has surged +48.88% since my 'Sell' view, compared to the S&P500's (SPY) (SPX) +2.26% over the same period, implying a negative alpha of 46.62%.ThesisI believe my 'Sell' rating update was too early. And although the market proved my thesis wrong, I am retaining my 'Sell' view as I believe the operating momentum - as strong as it may be - is ticking below the lofty expectations demanded of the stock given current valuations. Here's how I'm viewing the key drivers of Palantir:Deal flow validation of AIP and bootcamps is compellingPalantir is de-risking revenues and steadily upgrading marginsManagement's guidance is falling short of expectationsValuations are near historical peak levelsDeal flow validation of AIP and bootcamps is compellingPalantir talked about having bootcamps with commercial enterprises showcasing their artificial intelligence platform (AIP) in Q3 FY23. The commentary was optimistic from management, however, I noticed that despite the bullish talk, Palantir's backlog of work as measured by remaining performance obligations were not seeing any material tick up. This led me to believe that there was still some top-line risk as RPOs are a leading indicator of future revenues.However, this has dramatically changed in Q4 FY23. The numbers match the bullish narratives:Remaining Performance Obligations QoQ Increment (USD mn) (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Q4 FY23 saw a massive $255 million QoQ tick up in RPOs, reversing the cumulative fall over the 4 quarters prior. Importantly, a good chunk (67%) of this increase is attributed to longer-dated RPOs recognized over more than a 12-month period:Remaining performance obligations recognized beyond NTM QoQ Increment (USD mn) (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)This tells me that commercial enterprises are committing to longer-term projects; a good sign of future revenue stability.In Q4 FY23, much of the increased traction came from new commercial customers, which saw the largest QoQ increase of 45 customers in the company's publicly-listed history:Commercial Customers Count (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Commercial customer counts make up 75.5% of the overall customers mix (between commercial and government customers). Digging into this a bit deeper, we see that the US commercial enterprises are leading most of the increased traction here as the mix of US commercial customers jumped from 39.9% to 44.5%:US Commercial Customers Mix (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)These numbers align with a key narrative shift from the company, revealing new insights about Palantir's growth path ahead. In the past, Palantir's management had often said their biggest competition is enterprises' own internal IT departments. However, now they say \"that's certainly not the case anymore\":You go to these meetings and they'll often be the IT person telling a CEO, like, \"Look, we have no choice. We need to install this quickly.\" And so there's a cultural shift in the U.S. I don't think outside the U.S. it's the case. But inside the U.S., people and IT are responsible for business value.- CEO Alexander Karp in the Q4 FY23 earnings call, Hunting Alpha's bolded highlightWhat's happening is these bootcamps are showing enterprises in a short amount of time (10 hours) that Palantir can build useful AI to aid in business decision making that their own internal companies and other IT service vendors cannot. Hence, the new insight I glean from this is that competitive intensity is actually decreasing for Palantir.Revenue YoY (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Overall, I expect these deal signings and onboarding of new customers to materialize in higher revenue growth. The company's FY24 guidance of $2.66 billion at the midpoint of the range implies 20% growth YoY.Most of this growth is expected to come from the US Commercial Segment, which currently makes up 21.5% of overall revenues. In FY24, US Commercial revenues are expected to be more than $640 million, implying an impressive acceleration of an already strong growth track to at least 40% YoY:Commercial Revenue YoY (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Palantir is de-risking revenues and steadily upgrading marginsAs Palantir benefits from broader product adoption, it also de-risks its revenue stream. I believe Direct Commercial contracts are the best source of business for Palantir since selling to other enterprises may lead to more favorable pricing and working capital terms (something that may not work to Palantir's favor in government contracts). I anticipate this mix to climb up back toward 50% and higher in future:Direct Commercial Contracts Revenue Mix (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Another benefit is that Palantir's historically high customer concentration is expected to reduce as the company signs on a more diverse set of enterprise customers. I believe a 220bps QoQ jump in the concentration of outside top 20 tail-end customers from 51.6% to 54.8% is an initial sign of further revenue concentration de-risking ahead:Outside Top 20 Customers Mix (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)PLTR is also building upon its transition to profitability and increasing margins steadily:Normalized EBIT Margin (Company Filings, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Steady-state profitability is nowhere close to being hit just yet reached as the incremental YoY normalized EBIT margins have been north of 80% for the last 3 quarters and north of 50% for the last 6 quarters.Management's guidance is falling short of expectationsClearly, Palantir's operating momentum is sky high. However, it seems the market's expectations are higher still. Q1 FY24 guidance stood at $617 million revenues and an implied 22.64% EBIT margin. However, both these numbers fell short of what Wall St consensus was expecting, as evidenced by the negative surprises:Revenue Guidance Surprise vs Consensus (Capital IQ, Hunting Alpha Analysis)EBIT Margin Guidance Surprise vs Consensus (bps) (Capital IQ, Hunting Alpha Analysis)This indicates that as bullish as Palantir's progress may be, much of the optimism is already priced in, especially when one considers the fact that:Valuations are near historical peak levelsPalantir 1-yr fwd PE (Capital IQ, Hunting Alpha Analysis)Palantir's 1-yr fwd PE stands at 77.2x. The average 1-yr fwd PE over the last 2 years has been 57.6x; near the middle of the range marked by ~80x peak valuations and ~40x trough valuations. So with Palantir trading near historical peak valuations, at almost a 35% premium to the average or median (58.7x) band, I believe there is limited margin of safety for buys, even when considering the strong growth track.Technical AnalysisIf this is your first time reading a Hunting Alpha article using Technical Analysis, you may want to read this post, which explains how and why I read the charts the way I do, utilizing principles of Flow, Location and Trap.Technical Analysis of PLTR vs S&P500 (TradingView, Hunting Alpha Analysis)In the monthly relative chart of PLTR vs the S&P500, I notice that the ratio prices are near a key resistance zone. I anticipate sellers to post a rejection off this area. Another thing I observe is that in this overall buy-swing (alpha-generating swing) that began in May 2023, there was no clear sign of seller capitulation via a sharp move down preceding the buys. I believe this lack of a V-shaped recovery increases the chances of a less sustainable and buyer led move that has the ability to continue and match record highs.Takeaway and Risk MitigationAdmittedly, my relative bearish view on Palantir vs the S&P500 is mostly based on a belief of overextended valuations and a couple of negative surprises on company guidance. This view is at odds with some very impressing operating momentum metrics, including very healthy backlog (RPO) growth.Typically, I've learnt that it is generally risky to go against the trend of red-hot operating momentum. Hence, my risk mitigation plan is simple; if the relative chart of PLTR vs the S&P500 shows a sustained break above the key monthly resistance level, then I will throw in the towel, accept defeat and revise my view. Because if this scenario plays out, then my main argument for being bearish the stock would be based on valuations alone. And how long can that go for? What if the stock continues to outperform? Holding on to the 'Sell' view with the excuse of high valuations would be irresponsible in my view because the market can defy valuation-only arguments very easily.Hence, I rate the stock a 'Sell', but with a flexible readiness to change my mind if need be.How to interpret Hunting Alpha's ratings:Strong Buy: Expect the company to outperform the S&P500 on a total shareholder return basis, with higher than usual confidenceBuy: Expect the company to outperform the S&P500 on a total shareholder return basisNeutral/hold: Expect the company to perform in-line with the S&P500 on a total shareholder return basisSell: Expect the company to underperform the S&P500 on a total shareholder return basisStrong Sell: Expect the company to underperform the S&P500 on a total shareholder return basis, with higher than usual confidenceThe typical time-horizon for my views is multiple quarters to around a year. It is not set in stone. However, I will share updates on my changes in stance in a pinned comment to this article and may also publish a new article discussing the reasons for the change in view.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952031180,"gmtCreate":1674252744741,"gmtModify":1676538933398,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$99 won't go more then $150","listText":"$99 won't go more then $150","text":"$99 won't go more then $150","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952031180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951988100,"gmtCreate":1673376477701,"gmtModify":1676538827101,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951988100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953241877,"gmtCreate":1673274625399,"gmtModify":1676538809759,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953241877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918061926,"gmtCreate":1664286240265,"gmtModify":1676537425658,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GSUN\">$Golden Sun Education Group Limited(GSUN)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GSUN\">$Golden Sun Education Group Limited(GSUN)$</a>","text":"$Golden Sun Education Group Limited(GSUN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918061926","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902026072,"gmtCreate":1659616580199,"gmtModify":1705982190886,"author":{"id":"4121576118182622","authorId":"4121576118182622","name":"JackIzaro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f3a9a13670795442132f2f77dd48da","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121576118182622","authorIdStr":"4121576118182622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a>View on NASDAQ(.IXIC)BullishBearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a>View on NASDAQ(.IXIC)BullishBearish","text":"$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$View on NASDAQ(.IXIC)BullishBearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902026072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}