To The Moon

Unless you've been living under a rock, not using the internet, or haven't checked your portfolio in a while, the stock market is doing extraordinarily well, especially since we all expected to be in a recession by now.And Big Tech (yes, tech!) has been the driver of this success, even in this high-interest-rate environment.But even outperforming most of the Big Tech names are semiconductor stocks, with the best performer being the biggest name in the industry — Nvidia. The second most prominent name, AMD, isn't having too shabby of a year either.With these two stocks up 190% and 70% YTD, what will the future hold for both of them?Industry-Wide GrowthIf you think back to the first year of the pandemic (which seems ages ago), there was a shortage of semiconductors.Supply chain issues l

I didn't like the intro I had for this article, so I asked ChatGPT to make it more exciting. The output has nothing to do with what I discuss, but I was entertained enough to include it below. So enjoy.Within the sacred chambers of the Federal Reserve, a pivotal gathering took place on June 14th, where the nation’s economic destiny hung in the balance. The esteemed members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened to dissect the current state and trajectory of the United States economy, as well as deliberate on the crucial policy actions to be taken. However, a haunting message from Chairman Jerome Powell has sent shockwaves through the financial world, casting a shadow of concern over the horizon. As the echoes of his words reverberate, a sense of unease lingers in the air, rem

This economy is frustrating.A year ago, I spoke of several economic indicators at levels that historically precede recessions. A year later, we still aren't in a recession. Maybe I’m just impatient or too young to look at the longer-term picture.In 2022, most economists were predicting a recession by the middle of 2023 — that didn’t happen. Now some are expecting a small downturn at the end of 2023 or none at all.As we enter summer 2023, it's worth looking back at these indicators and what’s to come.Flashing IndicatorsOne of the most common recession warning indicators is inversion of the yield curve, this typically precedes a recession in the near future.The yield curve is the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield. When the 10-year Treasury yield goes bel

After a dismal 2022, the stock market has had a good 2023. The S&P is up 12% for the year and 20% since the market bottomed in October.Several factors have led to a great start in 2023, but trouble is on the horizon. Looking at only a few key charts, the market is over-extended.A pull-back is due, albeit probably a small one but one that can be opportune.SPYBelow is a chart of $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ from November 2021 to the present.$SPX | TradingViewSince the market bottomed out in October, it has been in an uptrend. This is showcased by the black arrows with higher highs and higher lows, a telltale sign of an uptrend.But with the SPX closing at $4,282 on Friday (June 2), it’s approaching a major hurdle. The high in August was aroun

After some big changes in my life, I recently moved into a new apartment. The place is extraordinary, right in the heart of downtown, and can’t have any downside, right?If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.Everything is great, except the price.As I sit on my floor (I don’t have any furniture yet), I realize that there are three major components to an apartment; and none can have all three.The Three Components of an ApartmentIn no particular order, the three major items to consider when looking at new apartments (and houses as well) are:PriceLocation“Quality”Price and location are straightforward. Quality references the actual apartment unit and building itself. Is it new, clean, or spacious? Does it have new appliances? What’s the square footage? etc.Everyone’s price rang

In 2022, technology stocks got creamed. So far in 2023, they are leading the rebound and taking the market up with them.Various factors contributed to tech stocks doing poorly last year and outstanding this year, most of which are related.Now that tech is up so much for 2023, the question is how much higher these stocks can go and for how long.Performances YTDAll of the big-name tech stocks have had excellent YTD performances.AAPL: Up 40% $Apple(AAPL)$ MSFT: Up 39% $Microsoft(MSFT)$ GOOGL: Up 39% $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ AMZN: Up 40% $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ META: Up 110% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(

For many years, the stock market was the only realistic location to invest your money for a decent return. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, now there are other options.Throw in the debt ceiling crisis, and even treasuries are looking attractive.A short-term, risk-free return above 5%, what’s not to love?Brief Background on the Debt Ceiling CrisisBefore getting into Treasury bills, it’s helpful to understand the ramification of the debt ceiling crisis.So much of the world’s trade is done in US dollars; there are many reasons, but one is the trust in the dollar, especially since the US has never defaulted on its debt. If it were to do so, there would be terrible consequences.Because of the United States’ history of always paying back its debt, it is regarded as a risk-free in

Timing a downturn is harder than timing the marketImage from CanvaIn 2022, almost every economist predicted a recession would occur by early 2023 (myself included.)Well, Q1 2023 just wrapped up, and the economy is still humming along.It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.So why have we yet to have a recession, and should we still expect to have one?How the Economy Is DoingIt's a mix.The latest inflation reading had CPI at 6%, after it was above 8% from March — September of 2022The unemployment rate has been below 4% for a year; and is currently at 3.6%The yield curve has been inverted for about a yearNatural gas and oil are around their regular prices after spiking last yearFor the average person, things are humming along alright.While there have been layoff

A simple overview of the current financial sector and SVBImage from CanvaThis past week has been filled with news on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank ("SVB").For three days straight, my LinkedIn feed was filled with people’s take on what happened. The way some analyzed it, you would've thought they saw this coming for months.In the end, SVB is just one bank in a large, complex banking system. Looking at the situation from a high level can provide clues on what to expect next and precautionary steps to take.Quick Background on SVBSilicon Valley Bank's name gives you almost all the details you need to know. They were a bank based in Santa Clara (right outside San Francisco).Being that it was in the Bay Area, SVB had become the go-to bank for many venture-backed tech startups.At the time o

5% risk-free yields from the Treasury are calling our namesImage from CanvaThe only sensible investment for years was in the stock market, as stocks have provided a tremendous annual return since the financial crisis.It became such an accepted thought that the phrase "There Is No Alternative (TINA)" was coined.The other historically popular investment option, bonds, offered terrible returns. Yields were near zero and usually lower than inflation. In some countries, they were even negative.But that has all been changing.Why the Investing Landscape is ChangingGoldman Sachs Group Inc. has dubbed the shift “TARA,” short for “there are reasonable alternatives,” while Deutsche Bank AG has endorsed “TAPAS,” meaning “there are plenty of alternatives,” and Insight Investment has come up with “TIARA