Always interesting when $National Healthcare(NHC)$$New Hope(NHC.AU)$ directors buy on mrkt, especially when NHC is trading at premium valuation multiples to peers. It's reasonable to assume that the Milners topping up in the 6s recently + this is healthy signs for thermal coal in general.Imagehttps://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1736537117550055558
PLS is a great example of a massively bloated EV in a cyclical
$Pilbara Minerals Ltd(PLS.AU)$$PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PILBF)$ is a great example of a massively bloated EV in a cyclical that has plenty of room to shrink... as soon as FCF dries up or turns negative, you realise how expensive it still is (even with all that cash). $Pilbara Minerals Ltd(PLS.AU)$$PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PILBF)$ "short squeeze" will happen when everyone who has bought in anticipation of a short squeeze has been wiped out Spoke too soon big red car. Down she goes Warrants gotta blow up first before she moves…Imagehttps://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1731831464562655713
Buybacks will remain a key capital mgmt strategy for NHC
For as long as the insanity continues, buybacks will remain a key capital mgmt strategy for non-ESG friendly co's. The valuation multiples long term are simply too attractive thanks to this obsessive climate change narrative. $New Hope(NHC.AU)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1724912233250197570
The performance of ASX thermal coal peers adjusted for divs since the BHP deal
Here is the performance of ASX thermal coal peers adjusted for divs since the BHP $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ deal. It is clear that recent weakness is a result of the underlying commodity prices $New Hope(NHC.AU)$$Yancoal Australia(YAL.AU)$$WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$$Terracom(TER.AU)$ ImageFor context comparing to it's direct peer & adjusted for divs, NHC is down ~15% since the tweet (5% more than WHC) & WHC is outperforming by ~20% since the deal. IMO this shows it's a result of NEWC. If anything, WHC appears to be holding up better due to the deal.Imagehttp
$YANCOAL AUS(03668)$ YAL research note from CMB International.PT of HK$53 (AUD$9.80) w/ assumptions & sensitivities below:Using their assumptions, if you take a 13month approach, you pick up 3 divs (~$2.50) w/ $3.5B cash on the balance sheet. If you take a 25month approach, you pick up 5 divs (~$3.80) w/ $4B cash.https://twitter.com/LukeyTrags/status/1627877424078917633
$WHC massive block trade (~5% of register). Biggest vol day of the last 12months. Sourced from IRESS. #CoalTwitter $WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ Substantial holders list:Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
Miners say #graphite is poised to be #lithium 2.0. A lot of investors have been anticipating this...Woah a 3M unit $WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD(WHC.AU)$ line just went through at $9.30... yep that's a ~$28M buy line!Follow me to learn more about stock moves!!
This chart (ticker: S5TH) shows the percent of stocks trading above/below their 200DMA (one of the most common indicators) dating back to 2007. Currently, 85.7% of stocks in the #SPX are trading below their 200DMA. This is entering territory seen during the #GFC & #COVID crashes.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Follow me to learn more about stock moves!!
$Volt Resources(VRC.AU)$$VRC charting thread update: zooming in on the weekly log we can see that after consolidating along w/ the recent market weakness the last couple wks, it looks to be bouncing for another attempt at a major b/o of resistance dating back to 2012 (original tweet). #graphite$VRC daily normal chart (via IRESS). We can see that the 50DMA has crossed both the 100 & 200. The last time this happened was in 2020 & it ran 400%. The recent selloff on declining volume looks exhausted & has found support + bouncing off these 3DMAs simultaneously.#graphiteFollow me to learn more about analysis!!