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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-11
Likr pls
Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?
Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big cras
Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-11
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Sorry, this post has been deleted
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-11
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Is the iPhone 14 Worth It? Apple CEO Tim Cook Made One "Brilliant Move," but Our Verdict Might Surprise You
The basic iPhone starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max sta
Is the iPhone 14 Worth It? Apple CEO Tim Cook Made One "Brilliant Move," but Our Verdict Might Surprise You
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chun1995
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2022-09-11
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A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease
If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an i
A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-11
Ok
How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; "There Were a Lot of Doubters"
Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oi
How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; "There Were a Lot of Doubters"
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-10
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Sorry, this post has been deleted
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-10
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-10
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2 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid
There are some excellent businesses in Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio, but others should be approached with caution.
2 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-10
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Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It
SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.Howev
Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It
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chun1995
chun1995
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2022-09-10
Nice
Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?
Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big cras
Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?
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Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big cras","content":"<div>\n<p>Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big crash.This is a loaded question depending on the type of crypto investor you are, however.Crypto will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-10 08:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big crash.This is a loaded question depending on the type of crypto investor you are, however.Crypto will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266879811","content_text":"Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big crash.This is a loaded question depending on the type of crypto investor you are, however.Crypto will not likely return to its 2021 peak, but that doesn't mean the asset class is doomed.This year’s crypto market crash was the worst in the short history of the asset class. That much is true, simply given how many more people were affected in the wake of it as opposed to previous crypto crashes. But is crypto dead as a result? The answer is a bit loaded. What is certain, though, is that a fundamental change will be occurring in the crypto market for years to come.The past two years have been great for crypto’s exposure to the mainstream. At this point, everybody and their mother has at least heard of Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Last fall, countless guides cropped up in response to this, telling people how to navigate crypto questions from family members over the holidays. Celebrities started flocking to non-fungible tokens (NFTs) through Bored Ape Yacht Club as well.Throughout 2021, the market capitalization of crypto ebbed and flowed. However, investors can see exactly the point when crypto hit the mainstream via Dogecoin‘s (DOGE-USD) bull run early that year. At that point, the global crypto market cap shattered through the $1 trillion mark. It then proceeded to climb north of $2 trillion by the end of 2021, aided by BTC’s $67,000 all-time high, the booming success of play-to-earn blockchain games, the foray of NFTs into mainstream art and the speculative wonders of pupcoins like Doge and Shiba Inu (SHIB-USD).Indeed, crypto seemed like an unstoppable force not too long ago. But there’s a major fault line in the industry which was oft overlooked as the asset class continued to make investors rich. Crypto was simply not made to exist like it did during the 2021 gravy train.Crypto: Made for Transactions, Not GainsWhen Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin to the world in 2008, the pseudonymous programmer likely didn’t envision anything like we saw at the height of the crypto bull market. BTC priced in at well over $67,000 apiece and the “hodl” philosophy — buy the dip and never sell — took over. Now, Bitcoin whales collectively own nearly 46% of the coin’s total supply.This is just not what Bitcoin was meant to be, however. Sure, the price of BTC was expected to go up some, but that was originally only expected to be through the growth of its practical use cases. At its core, BTC was designed as a mode of transaction for the unbanked. Bitcoin is an alternative to fiat, allowing users to operate outside of the control of central banks.Of course, Bitcoin’s not the only crypto like this. Although made as a joke, Dogecoin operates to the same exact ends. Privacy coins like Monero (XMR-USD) and Zcash (ZEC-USD) do the same thing as well, with the added goal of making these transactions completely anonymous.Ethereum (ETH-USD), the second-largest currency which saw its own price renaissance last year, operates on a different motive. However, ETH is not hell-bent on gains either. Vitalik Buterin and the seven other Ethereum cofounders launched the project with the intention of making a blockchain with a built-in programming language. This created an ecosystem of decentralized apps (dapps) which could be immutable and better-performing in contrast to the World Wide Web we know today.Projects Continue to Innovate After Market CrashContinuing down the list of top cryptos, investors will notice each project was built with a grand vision in mind — ones that never explicitly involve going up in price. Layer-1 projects like Cardano (ADA-USD), Solana (SOL-USD) and Polkadot (DOT-USD) are competitors to Ethereum, sharing the project’s dapp vision. Meanwhile, Tether (USDT-USD), Binance USD (BUSD-USD) and USD Coin (USDC-USD) can’t gain as stablecoins. The list goes on.So, is crypto dead in the wake of this recent crash? No, not from an innovation perspective.These projects aren’t phased by market volatility, because at the end of the day, they focus on grander visions. The trap investors get caught in when moving from stocks to crypto is believing that crypto developers care about coin prices the same way traditional companies concern themselves with shareholders and stock prices. This isn’t the case. In fact, it’s quite common for projects to forbid talking about price speculation on official channels.Developers haven’t ceased innovating since the crypto crash. Investors are still seeing some massive rollouts and upgrades. Ethereum is on the verge of its biggest upgrade ever and Cardano is soon to follow with its own hard fork. Ripple (XRP-USD) is also working closely with banks on implementing a new worldwide banking communications standard.Is Crypto Dead? To a Certain Demographic, Yes.The question “Is crypto dead?” comes down to simple framing. Are you an investor looking to 10x your investment on some speculative token with no practical use cases? Are you buying an art NFT and banking on some celebrity to pick up their own from the same collection? If so, the answer to the “dead” question is probably yes.The market crash is sending crypto into capitulation and the chances we see something like 2021 happening again are not very high. Put simply, the industry had caught lightning in a jar. Prices were already on the rise, more investors than ever were participating in the market, the pandemic had created extremely favorable macroeconomic conditions and — most importantly — there were no regulations.Nearly every country is regulating crypto now, especially the United States. The U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission is massively clamping down on projects, particularly in the wake of the crash. Moving forward, investigations and legal challenges could hamper even the most innovative projects in the space. There’s not much room, then, for the more speculative plays to crop up and immediately soar like before.Crypto investing isn’t completely dead. But it is certainly much less favorable to those only interested in speculative investing and the potential for massive gains. The recent crash brought an end to yet another speculative asset bubble; first there was the Dotcom bubble, then the housing bubble and now here we are. Obviously, web stocks didn’t disappear entirely, nor did housing. But they haven’t looked anything like they did at their peak hype. Neither will crypto.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XBTmain":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932146512,"gmtCreate":1662905369036,"gmtModify":1676537160657,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932146512","repostId":"2266319333","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932146128,"gmtCreate":1662905355965,"gmtModify":1676537160642,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932146128","repostId":"2266965998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266965998","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662858023,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266965998?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the iPhone 14 Worth It? Apple CEO Tim Cook Made One \"Brilliant Move,\" but Our Verdict Might Surprise You","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266965998","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The basic iPhone starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max sta","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The basic iPhone starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max starts at $1,099</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa99f8e8694582bade246d4fa136eb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>The face-off</h2><p>Apple's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> latest iPhone is out. The iPhone 14 comes in four models: the basic iPhone 14, a "supersized" (Apple's word) version called the iPhone 14 Plus, and the iPhone 14 Pro and the iPhone 14 Pro Max. The basic starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max starts at $1,099.</p><p>All four models boast more advanced front and back cameras and safety features that can detect whether you've been in a car crash and help you call 911, even if you're in an isolated area with limited cell service. The 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Plus has "the best battery life ever in an iPhone," the company said.</p><p>All told, the iPhone 14 models "have incredible new features that will help our users in meaningful ways," Apple chief executive Tim Cook said at Wednesday's unveiling.</p><p>How meaningful those upgrades really are remains to be seen. But there's no denying that the birth of the iPhone 15 years ago marked the beginning of a new, more intimate relationship between humans and their phones. Some might say that connection has morphed into codependency; people can't seem to function without their smartphones.</p><p>Is now the time to take that relationship to the next level and get a new iPhone?</p><h2>Why it matters</h2><p>"I think keeping the price at $799 was a brilliant move on Apple's part," said Charles Lindsey, associate professor of Marketing, University at Buffalo School of Management a professor at the University at Buffalo. "By not raising the price, they will not only capture early sales from the Apple innovators/early adopters (who typically buy new versions as soon as possible) but they will also pull in/convert your more mainstream users (who are typically slower to upgrade)."</p><p>The iPhone 14 comes in "stunning" colors including deep purple and starlight. Those pretty hues contrast with some gloomy economic data in the U.S: Record-high inflation has pushed Americans' cost of living way up, home prices and rents have soared, and credit card debt has piled up as pandemic-related government relief has receded. The labor market remains extremely tight, but some companies have been laying off employees or freezing hiring.</p><p>All of that may make consumers skittish about shelling out close to $1,000 on a phone. Which may explain Apple's decision to keep the base price of the iPhone 14 exactly the same as the starting price for the iPhone 13, unveiled in 2021.</p><p>The price isn't the only thing that didn't budge.</p><p>"The base iPhone 14 model is actually almost identical to the 13," said Melanie Pinola, a senior writer and editor on the smartphone beat at Consumer Reports.</p><p>Based on what Pinola saw at Wednesday's unveiling, it appears that the iPhone 14 has the same display, processor, overall design and the same battery as the 13. "If you have a 13, I don't know if I would switch to a 14 this year," Pinola said. "There are small improvements with the 14, but I wouldn't say I would rush out right now."</p><p>The most notable change among the iPhone 14 models is the new larger version, the iPhone 14 Plus, with a 6.7-inch display, which is similar in size to the Samsung Galaxy S22, Pinola said. "This is the first time that Apple has ever made a large screen phone under $1,000, so it's more accessible for people who want a larger phone," Pinola told MarketWatch.</p><h2>The verdict</h2><p>Skip the iPhone 14, unless your existing phone is on life support. "If you're not able to get security or software updates, it's definitely time to get a new phone," Pinola said.</p><h2>My reasons</h2><p>Tech companies have trained us to line up for new products on their schedule. But should Apple dictate when you spend money? Maybe that's how it became one of the world's most profitable companies. But blindly following Apple's marching orders is not how you will become the most profitable version of yourself.</p><h2>Is my verdict best for you?</h2><p>On the other hand, the fact that Apple kept the starting price the same on the iPhone 14 could make an upgrade easier to swallow, said Philip Michaels, U.S. managing editor at the product review site Tom's Guide.</p><p>"People who bought the iPhone 13 last year are probably still very happy with their phones and will have little reason to upgrade," Michaels told MarketWatch. "And given Apple's track record of lengthy software support -- iOS 16 works fine on phones released five years ago -- it's easy to hold onto your current iPhone for a long time."</p><p>"That said, if you've got an iPhone 11 or earlier, you will definitely notice an improvement in performance, even with the A15 Bionic chip on the iPhone 14 as opposed to the more advanced A16 Bionic powering the Pro models. Cameras figure to produce better results, too, though testing Apple's new phones will confirm that. Because Apple held the pricing at iPhone 13 levels despite the rumors of price hikes, an upgrade is even easier to justify," Michaels said.</p><p>Another possible incentive to upgrade: deals available through Apple can cut up to $800 off the price tag of the iPhone 14, and major mobile phone carriers including AT&T <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a>, T-Mobile <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMUS\">$(TMUS)$</a> and Verizon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, are offering discounts as well.</p><p>If you're trying to decide whether to upgrade, don't forget about the value of your existing phone, said Josh Lowitz co-founder of Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, publisher of the upcoming CIRP-Apple report on Substack.</p><p>"Used iPhones have real value, as trade-ins or hand-me-downs to family or friends," Lowitz said. "Our data shows that about half of new iPhone buyers trade-in or sell their old phone, and more than a third of those who monetize their old phone, report that it was worth more than $300."</p><p>Retail promotions, including enhanced trade-in offers, can reduce the cost of ownership further, he noted.</p><p>Another key point: mobile carriers are offering longer payment plans. In the past, phone purchases were generally broken up into 24 or even 18 or 20 payments. Now, 30 and 36 monthly payment plans are common, Lowitz said.</p><p>"That reduces the monthly outlay, though it postpones the relief of making that final payment, and the new phone buyer needs to be confident that their phone will serve them that long. Even with the strong residual value of an iPhone, a buyer with 36 payments may have negative equity in their phone into their third year of ownership," Lowitz said.</p><p>Apple shares closed almost 1% up Wednesday after the iPhone 14 event, but they are down 12% year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are down 13.5% and more than 16%, respectively, this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the iPhone 14 Worth It? Apple CEO Tim Cook Made One \"Brilliant Move,\" but Our Verdict Might Surprise You</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the iPhone 14 Worth It? Apple CEO Tim Cook Made One \"Brilliant Move,\" but Our Verdict Might Surprise You\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-11 09:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The basic iPhone starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max starts at $1,099</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa99f8e8694582bade246d4fa136eb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>The face-off</h2><p>Apple's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> latest iPhone is out. The iPhone 14 comes in four models: the basic iPhone 14, a "supersized" (Apple's word) version called the iPhone 14 Plus, and the iPhone 14 Pro and the iPhone 14 Pro Max. The basic starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max starts at $1,099.</p><p>All four models boast more advanced front and back cameras and safety features that can detect whether you've been in a car crash and help you call 911, even if you're in an isolated area with limited cell service. The 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Plus has "the best battery life ever in an iPhone," the company said.</p><p>All told, the iPhone 14 models "have incredible new features that will help our users in meaningful ways," Apple chief executive Tim Cook said at Wednesday's unveiling.</p><p>How meaningful those upgrades really are remains to be seen. But there's no denying that the birth of the iPhone 15 years ago marked the beginning of a new, more intimate relationship between humans and their phones. Some might say that connection has morphed into codependency; people can't seem to function without their smartphones.</p><p>Is now the time to take that relationship to the next level and get a new iPhone?</p><h2>Why it matters</h2><p>"I think keeping the price at $799 was a brilliant move on Apple's part," said Charles Lindsey, associate professor of Marketing, University at Buffalo School of Management a professor at the University at Buffalo. "By not raising the price, they will not only capture early sales from the Apple innovators/early adopters (who typically buy new versions as soon as possible) but they will also pull in/convert your more mainstream users (who are typically slower to upgrade)."</p><p>The iPhone 14 comes in "stunning" colors including deep purple and starlight. Those pretty hues contrast with some gloomy economic data in the U.S: Record-high inflation has pushed Americans' cost of living way up, home prices and rents have soared, and credit card debt has piled up as pandemic-related government relief has receded. The labor market remains extremely tight, but some companies have been laying off employees or freezing hiring.</p><p>All of that may make consumers skittish about shelling out close to $1,000 on a phone. Which may explain Apple's decision to keep the base price of the iPhone 14 exactly the same as the starting price for the iPhone 13, unveiled in 2021.</p><p>The price isn't the only thing that didn't budge.</p><p>"The base iPhone 14 model is actually almost identical to the 13," said Melanie Pinola, a senior writer and editor on the smartphone beat at Consumer Reports.</p><p>Based on what Pinola saw at Wednesday's unveiling, it appears that the iPhone 14 has the same display, processor, overall design and the same battery as the 13. "If you have a 13, I don't know if I would switch to a 14 this year," Pinola said. "There are small improvements with the 14, but I wouldn't say I would rush out right now."</p><p>The most notable change among the iPhone 14 models is the new larger version, the iPhone 14 Plus, with a 6.7-inch display, which is similar in size to the Samsung Galaxy S22, Pinola said. "This is the first time that Apple has ever made a large screen phone under $1,000, so it's more accessible for people who want a larger phone," Pinola told MarketWatch.</p><h2>The verdict</h2><p>Skip the iPhone 14, unless your existing phone is on life support. "If you're not able to get security or software updates, it's definitely time to get a new phone," Pinola said.</p><h2>My reasons</h2><p>Tech companies have trained us to line up for new products on their schedule. But should Apple dictate when you spend money? Maybe that's how it became one of the world's most profitable companies. But blindly following Apple's marching orders is not how you will become the most profitable version of yourself.</p><h2>Is my verdict best for you?</h2><p>On the other hand, the fact that Apple kept the starting price the same on the iPhone 14 could make an upgrade easier to swallow, said Philip Michaels, U.S. managing editor at the product review site Tom's Guide.</p><p>"People who bought the iPhone 13 last year are probably still very happy with their phones and will have little reason to upgrade," Michaels told MarketWatch. "And given Apple's track record of lengthy software support -- iOS 16 works fine on phones released five years ago -- it's easy to hold onto your current iPhone for a long time."</p><p>"That said, if you've got an iPhone 11 or earlier, you will definitely notice an improvement in performance, even with the A15 Bionic chip on the iPhone 14 as opposed to the more advanced A16 Bionic powering the Pro models. Cameras figure to produce better results, too, though testing Apple's new phones will confirm that. Because Apple held the pricing at iPhone 13 levels despite the rumors of price hikes, an upgrade is even easier to justify," Michaels said.</p><p>Another possible incentive to upgrade: deals available through Apple can cut up to $800 off the price tag of the iPhone 14, and major mobile phone carriers including AT&T <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a>, T-Mobile <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMUS\">$(TMUS)$</a> and Verizon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, are offering discounts as well.</p><p>If you're trying to decide whether to upgrade, don't forget about the value of your existing phone, said Josh Lowitz co-founder of Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, publisher of the upcoming CIRP-Apple report on Substack.</p><p>"Used iPhones have real value, as trade-ins or hand-me-downs to family or friends," Lowitz said. "Our data shows that about half of new iPhone buyers trade-in or sell their old phone, and more than a third of those who monetize their old phone, report that it was worth more than $300."</p><p>Retail promotions, including enhanced trade-in offers, can reduce the cost of ownership further, he noted.</p><p>Another key point: mobile carriers are offering longer payment plans. In the past, phone purchases were generally broken up into 24 or even 18 or 20 payments. Now, 30 and 36 monthly payment plans are common, Lowitz said.</p><p>"That reduces the monthly outlay, though it postpones the relief of making that final payment, and the new phone buyer needs to be confident that their phone will serve them that long. Even with the strong residual value of an iPhone, a buyer with 36 payments may have negative equity in their phone into their third year of ownership," Lowitz said.</p><p>Apple shares closed almost 1% up Wednesday after the iPhone 14 event, but they are down 12% year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are down 13.5% and more than 16%, respectively, this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266965998","content_text":"The basic iPhone starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max starts at $1,099The face-offApple's $(AAPL)$ latest iPhone is out. The iPhone 14 comes in four models: the basic iPhone 14, a \"supersized\" (Apple's word) version called the iPhone 14 Plus, and the iPhone 14 Pro and the iPhone 14 Pro Max. The basic starts at $799, the Plus starts at $899, the Pro starts at $999 and the Pro Max starts at $1,099.All four models boast more advanced front and back cameras and safety features that can detect whether you've been in a car crash and help you call 911, even if you're in an isolated area with limited cell service. The 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Plus has \"the best battery life ever in an iPhone,\" the company said.All told, the iPhone 14 models \"have incredible new features that will help our users in meaningful ways,\" Apple chief executive Tim Cook said at Wednesday's unveiling.How meaningful those upgrades really are remains to be seen. But there's no denying that the birth of the iPhone 15 years ago marked the beginning of a new, more intimate relationship between humans and their phones. Some might say that connection has morphed into codependency; people can't seem to function without their smartphones.Is now the time to take that relationship to the next level and get a new iPhone?Why it matters\"I think keeping the price at $799 was a brilliant move on Apple's part,\" said Charles Lindsey, associate professor of Marketing, University at Buffalo School of Management a professor at the University at Buffalo. \"By not raising the price, they will not only capture early sales from the Apple innovators/early adopters (who typically buy new versions as soon as possible) but they will also pull in/convert your more mainstream users (who are typically slower to upgrade).\"The iPhone 14 comes in \"stunning\" colors including deep purple and starlight. Those pretty hues contrast with some gloomy economic data in the U.S: Record-high inflation has pushed Americans' cost of living way up, home prices and rents have soared, and credit card debt has piled up as pandemic-related government relief has receded. The labor market remains extremely tight, but some companies have been laying off employees or freezing hiring.All of that may make consumers skittish about shelling out close to $1,000 on a phone. Which may explain Apple's decision to keep the base price of the iPhone 14 exactly the same as the starting price for the iPhone 13, unveiled in 2021.The price isn't the only thing that didn't budge.\"The base iPhone 14 model is actually almost identical to the 13,\" said Melanie Pinola, a senior writer and editor on the smartphone beat at Consumer Reports.Based on what Pinola saw at Wednesday's unveiling, it appears that the iPhone 14 has the same display, processor, overall design and the same battery as the 13. \"If you have a 13, I don't know if I would switch to a 14 this year,\" Pinola said. \"There are small improvements with the 14, but I wouldn't say I would rush out right now.\"The most notable change among the iPhone 14 models is the new larger version, the iPhone 14 Plus, with a 6.7-inch display, which is similar in size to the Samsung Galaxy S22, Pinola said. \"This is the first time that Apple has ever made a large screen phone under $1,000, so it's more accessible for people who want a larger phone,\" Pinola told MarketWatch.The verdictSkip the iPhone 14, unless your existing phone is on life support. \"If you're not able to get security or software updates, it's definitely time to get a new phone,\" Pinola said.My reasonsTech companies have trained us to line up for new products on their schedule. But should Apple dictate when you spend money? Maybe that's how it became one of the world's most profitable companies. But blindly following Apple's marching orders is not how you will become the most profitable version of yourself.Is my verdict best for you?On the other hand, the fact that Apple kept the starting price the same on the iPhone 14 could make an upgrade easier to swallow, said Philip Michaels, U.S. managing editor at the product review site Tom's Guide.\"People who bought the iPhone 13 last year are probably still very happy with their phones and will have little reason to upgrade,\" Michaels told MarketWatch. \"And given Apple's track record of lengthy software support -- iOS 16 works fine on phones released five years ago -- it's easy to hold onto your current iPhone for a long time.\"\"That said, if you've got an iPhone 11 or earlier, you will definitely notice an improvement in performance, even with the A15 Bionic chip on the iPhone 14 as opposed to the more advanced A16 Bionic powering the Pro models. Cameras figure to produce better results, too, though testing Apple's new phones will confirm that. Because Apple held the pricing at iPhone 13 levels despite the rumors of price hikes, an upgrade is even easier to justify,\" Michaels said.Another possible incentive to upgrade: deals available through Apple can cut up to $800 off the price tag of the iPhone 14, and major mobile phone carriers including AT&T $(T)$, T-Mobile $(TMUS)$ and Verizon $(VZ)$, are offering discounts as well.If you're trying to decide whether to upgrade, don't forget about the value of your existing phone, said Josh Lowitz co-founder of Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, publisher of the upcoming CIRP-Apple report on Substack.\"Used iPhones have real value, as trade-ins or hand-me-downs to family or friends,\" Lowitz said. \"Our data shows that about half of new iPhone buyers trade-in or sell their old phone, and more than a third of those who monetize their old phone, report that it was worth more than $300.\"Retail promotions, including enhanced trade-in offers, can reduce the cost of ownership further, he noted.Another key point: mobile carriers are offering longer payment plans. In the past, phone purchases were generally broken up into 24 or even 18 or 20 payments. Now, 30 and 36 monthly payment plans are common, Lowitz said.\"That reduces the monthly outlay, though it postpones the relief of making that final payment, and the new phone buyer needs to be confident that their phone will serve them that long. Even with the strong residual value of an iPhone, a buyer with 36 payments may have negative equity in their phone into their third year of ownership,\" Lowitz said.Apple shares closed almost 1% up Wednesday after the iPhone 14 event, but they are down 12% year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are down 13.5% and more than 16%, respectively, this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932146012,"gmtCreate":1662905319837,"gmtModify":1676537160635,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932146012","repostId":"2266398293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266398293","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662857059,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266398293?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266398293","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November.</p><p>That should give some hope to beleaguered investors whose stock holdings have suffered double-digit losses so far this year. A meaningful rally could be just a few weeks away.</p><p>I'm referring to the historical pattern in the stock market of pre-midterm weakness and post-midterm strength. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8dce7f85a1b3a6cc790f3a79ff21a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Though the date of the average in this chart is in October, the actual lows in the historical record can come earlier or later. Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. A good guess is that the low this year will be later, given the uncertainty about the election outcome -- especially in the U.S. Senate.</p><p>It's always possible that the pre-midterm low will occur in advance of Election Day. It wouldn't be inconsistent with the historical record for this year's low to have occurred the day after Labor Day, in fact. As of Sept. 9, the S&P 500 was more than 4% higher than that low.</p><p>It's worth noting how remarkable it is for any pattern to emerge when averaging together many years worth of stock market gyrations. Though each year carves out a unique path, the highs and lows usually cancel each other out, leaving the average to be a gradual upward-sloping line. A pattern has to be quite pronounced in the historical data for a deviation to appear that is as stark as the one in the accompanying chart.</p><p>This pre- and post-midterm pattern is so pronounced that it is the source of the famous seasonal pattern known as the "Halloween Indicator," according to which the stock market is strongest between Oct. 31 and May 1 and weakest the other six months of the year. Yet take away the six months before- and after mid-term elections and the Halloween Indicator disappears.</p><p>The underlying data appear in the table below. The cell marked with a single asterisk (*) refers to the current six-month period, while the cell marked with a double asterisk (**) corresponds to the six-month period that begins at the end of October 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200d68de48ef106579622d3fc32df9ff\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So if you are tempted to bet on the Halloween Indicator, your time is fast approaching. If you miss it, you won't have another chance until the 2026 midterms.</p><p>Credit for discovering that the Halloween Indicator traces to the months prior to and subsequent to the midterms goes to Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International, and Kam Fong Chan, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Queensland in Australia. Their research into this pattern appeared in July 2021 in the Journal of Financial Economics.</p><p>The likely source of the pattern, according to the researchers, is the uncertainty that exists prior to the midterms and the resolution of that uncertainty after the election. They note that it appears not to matter which party dominates Congress prior to the midterms and which becomes the majority party afterwards. The pattern exists, they believe, because the stock market craves certainty, even when the source of that certainty may not be in accord with every investor's political preferences.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Strong Market Rally Could Be Just Weeks Away If the U.S. Midterm Elections Can Put Anxious Stock Investors at Ease\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-11 08:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November.</p><p>That should give some hope to beleaguered investors whose stock holdings have suffered double-digit losses so far this year. A meaningful rally could be just a few weeks away.</p><p>I'm referring to the historical pattern in the stock market of pre-midterm weakness and post-midterm strength. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8dce7f85a1b3a6cc790f3a79ff21a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Though the date of the average in this chart is in October, the actual lows in the historical record can come earlier or later. Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. A good guess is that the low this year will be later, given the uncertainty about the election outcome -- especially in the U.S. Senate.</p><p>It's always possible that the pre-midterm low will occur in advance of Election Day. It wouldn't be inconsistent with the historical record for this year's low to have occurred the day after Labor Day, in fact. As of Sept. 9, the S&P 500 was more than 4% higher than that low.</p><p>It's worth noting how remarkable it is for any pattern to emerge when averaging together many years worth of stock market gyrations. Though each year carves out a unique path, the highs and lows usually cancel each other out, leaving the average to be a gradual upward-sloping line. A pattern has to be quite pronounced in the historical data for a deviation to appear that is as stark as the one in the accompanying chart.</p><p>This pre- and post-midterm pattern is so pronounced that it is the source of the famous seasonal pattern known as the "Halloween Indicator," according to which the stock market is strongest between Oct. 31 and May 1 and weakest the other six months of the year. Yet take away the six months before- and after mid-term elections and the Halloween Indicator disappears.</p><p>The underlying data appear in the table below. The cell marked with a single asterisk (*) refers to the current six-month period, while the cell marked with a double asterisk (**) corresponds to the six-month period that begins at the end of October 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200d68de48ef106579622d3fc32df9ff\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So if you are tempted to bet on the Halloween Indicator, your time is fast approaching. If you miss it, you won't have another chance until the 2026 midterms.</p><p>Credit for discovering that the Halloween Indicator traces to the months prior to and subsequent to the midterms goes to Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International, and Kam Fong Chan, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Queensland in Australia. Their research into this pattern appeared in July 2021 in the Journal of Financial Economics.</p><p>The likely source of the pattern, according to the researchers, is the uncertainty that exists prior to the midterms and the resolution of that uncertainty after the election. They note that it appears not to matter which party dominates Congress prior to the midterms and which becomes the majority party afterwards. The pattern exists, they believe, because the stock market craves certainty, even when the source of that certainty may not be in accord with every investor's political preferences.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266398293","content_text":"If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November.That should give some hope to beleaguered investors whose stock holdings have suffered double-digit losses so far this year. A meaningful rally could be just a few weeks away.I'm referring to the historical pattern in the stock market of pre-midterm weakness and post-midterm strength. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954).Though the date of the average in this chart is in October, the actual lows in the historical record can come earlier or later. Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. A good guess is that the low this year will be later, given the uncertainty about the election outcome -- especially in the U.S. Senate.It's always possible that the pre-midterm low will occur in advance of Election Day. It wouldn't be inconsistent with the historical record for this year's low to have occurred the day after Labor Day, in fact. As of Sept. 9, the S&P 500 was more than 4% higher than that low.It's worth noting how remarkable it is for any pattern to emerge when averaging together many years worth of stock market gyrations. Though each year carves out a unique path, the highs and lows usually cancel each other out, leaving the average to be a gradual upward-sloping line. A pattern has to be quite pronounced in the historical data for a deviation to appear that is as stark as the one in the accompanying chart.This pre- and post-midterm pattern is so pronounced that it is the source of the famous seasonal pattern known as the \"Halloween Indicator,\" according to which the stock market is strongest between Oct. 31 and May 1 and weakest the other six months of the year. Yet take away the six months before- and after mid-term elections and the Halloween Indicator disappears.The underlying data appear in the table below. The cell marked with a single asterisk (*) refers to the current six-month period, while the cell marked with a double asterisk (**) corresponds to the six-month period that begins at the end of October 2022.So if you are tempted to bet on the Halloween Indicator, your time is fast approaching. If you miss it, you won't have another chance until the 2026 midterms.Credit for discovering that the Halloween Indicator traces to the months prior to and subsequent to the midterms goes to Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International, and Kam Fong Chan, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Queensland in Australia. Their research into this pattern appeared in July 2021 in the Journal of Financial Economics.The likely source of the pattern, according to the researchers, is the uncertainty that exists prior to the midterms and the resolution of that uncertainty after the election. They note that it appears not to matter which party dominates Congress prior to the midterms and which becomes the majority party afterwards. The pattern exists, they believe, because the stock market craves certainty, even when the source of that certainty may not be in accord with every investor's political preferences.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932148564,"gmtCreate":1662905296858,"gmtModify":1676537160626,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932148564","repostId":"2266817381","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266817381","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662861434,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266817381?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266817381","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb2e717152d9e61504d0803ac3654\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.</p><p>Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.</p><p>It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.</p><p>Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61847881fba325e1dc5c7ed3280e29db\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.</p><p>But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”</p><p>Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.</p><p>Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.</p><p>Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.</p><p>“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”</p><p>A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf58d7d767a23cfb352e019504bafa44\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERS</span></p><p>Ms. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.</p><p>After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.</p><p>She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.</p><p>Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cf5cd81991220ec1f42821cee2554b\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></p><p>But she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.</p><p>Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.</p><p>By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.</p><p>As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090db9eab1ac4c91bd5b1b441d26206\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Every day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.</p><p>Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.</p><p>Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.</p><p>Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.</p><p>Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.</p><p>After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.</p><p>Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.</p><p>Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2c050a88b00dd9846de958b65be1b\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERS</span></p><p>As the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.</p><p>Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.</p><p>In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental's long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company's goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.</p><p>Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in "carbon management." It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.</p><p>Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p><p>The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&P Capital IQ.</p><p>The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.</p><p>As Occidental's stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor's two representatives on Occidental's board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p>As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett's investment could be ill-timed. "I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3," he said. "I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard," he said.</p><p>Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.</p><p>Mr. Icahn's retort: "She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy."</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-11 09:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb2e717152d9e61504d0803ac3654\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.</p><p>Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.</p><p>It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.</p><p>Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61847881fba325e1dc5c7ed3280e29db\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.</p><p>But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”</p><p>Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.</p><p>Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.</p><p>Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.</p><p>“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”</p><p>A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf58d7d767a23cfb352e019504bafa44\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERS</span></p><p>Ms. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.</p><p>After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.</p><p>She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.</p><p>Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cf5cd81991220ec1f42821cee2554b\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></p><p>But she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.</p><p>Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.</p><p>By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.</p><p>As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090db9eab1ac4c91bd5b1b441d26206\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Every day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.</p><p>Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.</p><p>Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.</p><p>Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.</p><p>Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.</p><p>After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.</p><p>Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.</p><p>Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2c050a88b00dd9846de958b65be1b\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERS</span></p><p>As the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.</p><p>Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.</p><p>In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental's long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company's goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.</p><p>Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in "carbon management." It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.</p><p>Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p><p>The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&P Capital IQ.</p><p>The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.</p><p>As Occidental's stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor's two representatives on Occidental's board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p>As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett's investment could be ill-timed. "I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3," he said. "I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard," he said.</p><p>Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.</p><p>Mr. Icahn's retort: "She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy."</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OXY":"西方石油","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266817381","content_text":"Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERSMs. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNALBut she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESEvery day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERSAs the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental's long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company's goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in \"carbon management.\" It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&P Capital IQ.The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.As Occidental's stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor's two representatives on Occidental's board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett's investment could be ill-timed. \"I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,\" he said. \"I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,\" he said.Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.Mr. Icahn's retort: \"She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"BRK.A":0.68}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936464036,"gmtCreate":1662806732825,"gmtModify":1676537144407,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936464036","repostId":"1153231275","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936465215,"gmtCreate":1662806676237,"gmtModify":1676537144396,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936465215","repostId":"1178809104","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936465695,"gmtCreate":1662806659617,"gmtModify":1676537144392,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936465695","repostId":"2265863151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265863151","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662736820,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265863151?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265863151","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There are some excellent businesses in Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio, but others should be approached with caution.","content":"<div>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway has a massive stock portfolio with dozen of companies worth well over $300 billion, and many of its positions were selected by CEO Warren Buffett himself.For the most part, Buffett ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/2-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-over-fist-and/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 23:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/2-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-over-fist-and/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway has a massive stock portfolio with dozen of companies worth well over $300 billion, and many of its positions were selected by CEO Warren Buffett himself.For the most part, Buffett ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/2-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-over-fist-and/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MKL":"Markel Corp","BAC":"美国银行","STNE":"StoneCo"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/08/2-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-over-fist-and/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265863151","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway has a massive stock portfolio with dozen of companies worth well over $300 billion, and many of its positions were selected by CEO Warren Buffett himself.For the most part, Buffett and his investment managers are known for buying the stocks of tried-and-true businesses that are well established and stable but still have long-term growth potential. But that's not always the case, and not every \"Buffett stock\" is worth buying now. Here are two in particular that look like attractive long-term investments after the recent market decline and one growth stock in Berkshire's portfolio that you might want to think twice about.1. This Buffett bank stock could be a big winner in the rising-rate environmentBank of America is the second-largest stock position in Berkshire's portfolio. As of the latest information, Berkshire owned just over a billion shares of the megabank, which translates to an ownership stake of about 13%.The bank stock is down by about 35% from its recent high, mainly due to recession fears. In recessions, banks often see an uptick in loan defaults as well as a slowdown in consumer demand for borrowing. However, Bank of America is also well positioned to benefit from the current environment. As the Federal Reserve raises rates, it is likely to result in billions in additional net interest income for Bank of America. The bank has a massive base of low-cost and non-interest-bearing deposits, and rate hikes have a big impact on the bottom line.We've already started to see this in the bank's second-quarter results, and management estimates that a 100-basis-point (one percentage point) shift in the yield curve would produce an additional $5 billion in net interest income annually, which could certainly help offset any negative impact of an economic slowdown.2. A mini-Berkshire that has one big advantage over BuffettMarkel is often referred to as \"baby Berkshire,\" and it's easy to see why. An insurance company at heart, Markel also invests its float in a portfolio of stocks, as well as in private businesses, through its Markel Ventures division. So it wasn't too surprising to see Berkshire add Markel to its stock portfolio this year.It's important to note that Markel not only has a similar business model to Berkshire Hathaway, but it actually has one key advantage over it -- its size. With a market cap of about $16 billion, Markel is less than 3% of Berkshire's size. This means that Markel can produce needle-moving returns from smaller investments (like its venture capital business) than Berkshire can. As a simplified example, if Berkshire invests $100 million in a stock that ends up producing 100x returns, it would only result in about a 2% increase in the company's market value. For Markel, such an investment would be game-changing.In short, Markel uses a time-tested business model and is comparable to an earlier-stage investment in Berkshire Hathaway itself.3. A high-potential fintech that faces some big headwindsA few years ago, Berkshire did something that it rarely does and invested in a high-growth business that had just made its public debut. While the investment wasn't made by Buffett himself, Berkshire added shares of Brazil-based fintech StoneCo.For a while, StoneCo was one of the best performers in Berkshire's portfolio, but the stock has been absolutely hammered in the recent downturn, with shares down by more than 90% from the highs. And while the business still has lots of potential, it's also become much riskier. The company reported a hefty net loss in the second quarter, compared with a profit a year ago, and growth has slowed down tremendously. Inflation is higher in StoneCo's market than it is in the United States, and a recession could cause a sharp decline in consumer spending. Plus, StoneCo's CFO recently decided to leave the company.To be sure, StoneCo could end up being a home run for patient investors. If recession fears subside, growth could rebound. The company is slowly rolling out its credit card business, which could be a massive revenue driver long term. But there's too much that can go wrong in the near term, so I'm staying on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STNE":0.9,"BAC":0.72,"MKL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936465882,"gmtCreate":1662806640347,"gmtModify":1676537144391,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936465882","repostId":"1121193410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121193410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662736920,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121193410?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121193410","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.Howev","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.</li><li>It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.</li><li>However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.</li><li>It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.</li><li>Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.</p><p>At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.</p><p>Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.</p><p><b>TSLA’s stress test</b></p><p>The following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.</p><p>Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.</p><p>So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7881b443d2c420626b971f109ca311\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>TSLA’s fixed cost and variable cost</b></p><p>For a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from <i>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing</i> by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,</p><blockquote><i>Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c669923352cb292c185f41f4ea4fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au</p><p>The next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.</p><p>You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).</p><p>Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5520e0e03cd80a27fd4c847f92439068\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>TSLA Stock’s profit and return projections</b></p><p>This next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.</p><p>Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.</p><p>As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.</p><p>For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d10ac6399c754be5f519058eac954f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author: TSLA’s profit and return projections</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc4fe07e1d74f5be8ebf212d915aeb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>To recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.</p><p>However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880cc09103624085d81075fe424881e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 23:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121193410","content_text":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.Thesis and BackgroundTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.TSLA’s stress testThe following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataTSLA’s fixed cost and variable costFor a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. AuThe next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.AuthorTSLA Stock’s profit and return projectionsThis next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.Author: TSLA’s profit and return projectionsSeeking AlphaFinal thoughts and risksTo recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.Seeking Alpha","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936462564,"gmtCreate":1662806616559,"gmtModify":1676537144373,"author":{"id":"4125806929125602","authorId":"4125806929125602","name":"chun1995","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4125806929125602","idStr":"4125806929125602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936462564","repostId":"2266879811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266879811","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662769352,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266879811?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-10 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266879811","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big cras","content":"<div>\n<p>Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big crash.This is a loaded question depending on the type of crypto investor you are, however.Crypto will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Crypto Dead After 2022 Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-10 08:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big crash.This is a loaded question depending on the type of crypto investor you are, however.Crypto will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/is-crypto-dead-after-2022-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266879811","content_text":"Is crypto dead? Investors want to know as prices struggle to regain their footing after the big crash.This is a loaded question depending on the type of crypto investor you are, however.Crypto will not likely return to its 2021 peak, but that doesn't mean the asset class is doomed.This year’s crypto market crash was the worst in the short history of the asset class. That much is true, simply given how many more people were affected in the wake of it as opposed to previous crypto crashes. But is crypto dead as a result? The answer is a bit loaded. What is certain, though, is that a fundamental change will be occurring in the crypto market for years to come.The past two years have been great for crypto’s exposure to the mainstream. At this point, everybody and their mother has at least heard of Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Last fall, countless guides cropped up in response to this, telling people how to navigate crypto questions from family members over the holidays. Celebrities started flocking to non-fungible tokens (NFTs) through Bored Ape Yacht Club as well.Throughout 2021, the market capitalization of crypto ebbed and flowed. However, investors can see exactly the point when crypto hit the mainstream via Dogecoin‘s (DOGE-USD) bull run early that year. At that point, the global crypto market cap shattered through the $1 trillion mark. It then proceeded to climb north of $2 trillion by the end of 2021, aided by BTC’s $67,000 all-time high, the booming success of play-to-earn blockchain games, the foray of NFTs into mainstream art and the speculative wonders of pupcoins like Doge and Shiba Inu (SHIB-USD).Indeed, crypto seemed like an unstoppable force not too long ago. But there’s a major fault line in the industry which was oft overlooked as the asset class continued to make investors rich. Crypto was simply not made to exist like it did during the 2021 gravy train.Crypto: Made for Transactions, Not GainsWhen Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin to the world in 2008, the pseudonymous programmer likely didn’t envision anything like we saw at the height of the crypto bull market. BTC priced in at well over $67,000 apiece and the “hodl” philosophy — buy the dip and never sell — took over. Now, Bitcoin whales collectively own nearly 46% of the coin’s total supply.This is just not what Bitcoin was meant to be, however. Sure, the price of BTC was expected to go up some, but that was originally only expected to be through the growth of its practical use cases. At its core, BTC was designed as a mode of transaction for the unbanked. Bitcoin is an alternative to fiat, allowing users to operate outside of the control of central banks.Of course, Bitcoin’s not the only crypto like this. Although made as a joke, Dogecoin operates to the same exact ends. Privacy coins like Monero (XMR-USD) and Zcash (ZEC-USD) do the same thing as well, with the added goal of making these transactions completely anonymous.Ethereum (ETH-USD), the second-largest currency which saw its own price renaissance last year, operates on a different motive. However, ETH is not hell-bent on gains either. Vitalik Buterin and the seven other Ethereum cofounders launched the project with the intention of making a blockchain with a built-in programming language. This created an ecosystem of decentralized apps (dapps) which could be immutable and better-performing in contrast to the World Wide Web we know today.Projects Continue to Innovate After Market CrashContinuing down the list of top cryptos, investors will notice each project was built with a grand vision in mind — ones that never explicitly involve going up in price. Layer-1 projects like Cardano (ADA-USD), Solana (SOL-USD) and Polkadot (DOT-USD) are competitors to Ethereum, sharing the project’s dapp vision. Meanwhile, Tether (USDT-USD), Binance USD (BUSD-USD) and USD Coin (USDC-USD) can’t gain as stablecoins. The list goes on.So, is crypto dead in the wake of this recent crash? No, not from an innovation perspective.These projects aren’t phased by market volatility, because at the end of the day, they focus on grander visions. The trap investors get caught in when moving from stocks to crypto is believing that crypto developers care about coin prices the same way traditional companies concern themselves with shareholders and stock prices. This isn’t the case. In fact, it’s quite common for projects to forbid talking about price speculation on official channels.Developers haven’t ceased innovating since the crypto crash. Investors are still seeing some massive rollouts and upgrades. Ethereum is on the verge of its biggest upgrade ever and Cardano is soon to follow with its own hard fork. Ripple (XRP-USD) is also working closely with banks on implementing a new worldwide banking communications standard.Is Crypto Dead? To a Certain Demographic, Yes.The question “Is crypto dead?” comes down to simple framing. Are you an investor looking to 10x your investment on some speculative token with no practical use cases? Are you buying an art NFT and banking on some celebrity to pick up their own from the same collection? If so, the answer to the “dead” question is probably yes.The market crash is sending crypto into capitulation and the chances we see something like 2021 happening again are not very high. Put simply, the industry had caught lightning in a jar. Prices were already on the rise, more investors than ever were participating in the market, the pandemic had created extremely favorable macroeconomic conditions and — most importantly — there were no regulations.Nearly every country is regulating crypto now, especially the United States. The U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission is massively clamping down on projects, particularly in the wake of the crash. Moving forward, investigations and legal challenges could hamper even the most innovative projects in the space. There’s not much room, then, for the more speculative plays to crop up and immediately soar like before.Crypto investing isn’t completely dead. But it is certainly much less favorable to those only interested in speculative investing and the potential for massive gains. The recent crash brought an end to yet another speculative asset bubble; first there was the Dotcom bubble, then the housing bubble and now here we are. Obviously, web stocks didn’t disappear entirely, nor did housing. But they haven’t looked anything like they did at their peak hype. Neither will crypto.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XBTmain":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}