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Cogsfinman

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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-16
  [得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-14
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher
  @TigerEvents：
  🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟It's easy to play! You could be a lucky winner by jumping and catching the egg. 🐇You can also invite friends to join in on the fun and earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends to see who can earn the most points and come out on top.Play now! Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win big! 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now！
  【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-14
  Enjoying trading in the tiger platform
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-12
  Still enjoying this campaign
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-11
  Have a great trading week
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-09
  People love to buy this stock. Still feel better buying opportunties are ahead.
  A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets
  The rally has already started. But there is still some electricity left to spark more gains.
  A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-04-09
  Happy Easter everyone
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- CogsfinmanCogsfinman
  ·2023-02-14
  Surely due for a bit of a pullback now, interested to see how TSLA responds to all scenarios of today's CPI print
  Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off
  SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward m
  Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off
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Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win big! 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.au/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now！</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟It's easy to play! You could be a lucky winner by jumping and catching the egg. 🐇You can also invite friends to join in on the fun and earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends to see who can earn the most points and come out on top.Play now! Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win big! 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now！","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960885","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945861649,"gmtCreate":1681430189781,"gmtModify":1681430193605,"author":{"id":"4130044948530752","authorId":"4130044948530752","name":"Cogsfinman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Enjoying trading in the tiger platform","listText":"Enjoying trading in the tiger platform","text":"Enjoying trading in the tiger platform","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945861649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942405099,"gmtCreate":1681265079911,"gmtModify":1681265082710,"author":{"id":"4130044948530752","authorId":"4130044948530752","name":"Cogsfinman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still enjoying this campaign","listText":"Still enjoying this campaign","text":"Still enjoying this campaign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942405099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942169632,"gmtCreate":1681164741926,"gmtModify":1681177668467,"author":{"id":"4130044948530752","authorId":"4130044948530752","name":"Cogsfinman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a great trading week","listText":"Have a great trading week","text":"Have a great trading week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942169632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946276814,"gmtCreate":1680988309139,"gmtModify":1681006584261,"author":{"id":"4130044948530752","authorId":"4130044948530752","name":"Cogsfinman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"People love to buy this stock.&nbsp; Still feel better buying opportunties are ahead.","listText":"People love to buy this stock.&nbsp; Still feel better buying opportunties are ahead.","text":"People love to buy this stock. Still feel better buying opportunties are ahead.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946276814","repostId":"2325259359","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2325259359","pubTimestamp":1680998829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2325259359?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-09 08:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2325259359","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The rally has already started. But there is still some electricity left to spark more gains.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The 2022 bear market has created a great opportunity for investors to scoop up top stocks at a discount, and <strong>Tesla</strong> is not an exception. While shares in the legendary electric automaker have risen substantially in 2023, they are still down 49% over the last 12 months. Let&#39;s explore why the bull run might just be getting started.</p><h2>What went wrong for Tesla?</h2><p>While no single factor can explain Tesla&#39;s substantial decline last year, some things stand out. For starters, many investors were unnerved by Elon Musk, whose acquisition of social media company <strong>Twitter</strong> led him to unload Tesla shares and possibly get distracted from his role as its CEO. Market participants also began to fear that rising competition in the EV industry would crush Tesla&#39;s growth and margins.</p><p>The good news is that both of these concerns look overblown. Five months into Musk&#39;s Twitter acquisition, Tesla has shown no signs of losing its strategic vision. No longer a fragile growth company, it is also less dependent on the guidance of a single individual and has had plenty of time to build a talented management structure aside from Musk. The company also isn&#39;t letting competition hold it back. </p><h2>Flexing scale and pricing power </h2><p>While competition is heating up in the EV industry (leading Tesla to slash its car prices by around 20% globally), this is an opportunity for the automaker to lean into its natural advantages in scale and high margins to outcompete its rivals. So far, so good. First-quarter deliveries surged 36% year over year to 422,875 cars, which is ahead of expectations. And while some analysts expect the lower prices to hurt margins, this is a small price to pay to capture market share and possibly drive unprofitable rivals out of the industry. </p><p>Further, Tesla believes it can reduce production costs on its next-generation vehicles by half, which would help offset the price cuts over the long term and help the company maintain its profitability. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73852f3db76edf7785523fab67365c08\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><p>Tesla is already very profitable compared to its pure-play EV rivals. In 2022, the company generated an operating profit of $13.7 billion (a margin of 17%), while rivals <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid</strong> generated operating losses of $6.9 billion and $2.6 billion in the same period.</p><p>It&#39;s hard to see how these companies can keep up with Tesla&#39;s pricing power because they lack its economies of scale and manufacturing innovations. Musk warns that both rivals are &#34;tracking toward bankruptcy&#34; unless they make dramatic efforts to cut costs.</p><h2>No more crazy overvaluation </h2><p>Tesla stock has come a long way from its overvalued past in 2020 and 2021 when it boasted a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as high as 1,120 and a market capitalization larger than the next five biggest car companies combined. And while the company&#39;s current forward P/E of 50 is double the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index&#39;s average of 26, the premium looks justified by its healthy growth rate and sustainable competitive advantages.</p><p>Investors still have a chance to buy the dip on shares of this electric vehicle leader.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bull Market Is Coming: 3 Reasons to Buy Tesla Stock Before It Skyrockets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-09 08:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/07/bull-market-is-coming-3-reasons-to-buy-tesla-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The 2022 bear market has created a great opportunity for investors to scoop up top stocks at a discount, and Tesla is not an exception. While shares in the legendary electric automaker have risen ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/07/bull-market-is-coming-3-reasons-to-buy-tesla-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/07/bull-market-is-coming-3-reasons-to-buy-tesla-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2325259359","content_text":"The 2022 bear market has created a great opportunity for investors to scoop up top stocks at a discount, and Tesla is not an exception. While shares in the legendary electric automaker have risen substantially in 2023, they are still down 49% over the last 12 months. Let's explore why the bull run might just be getting started.What went wrong for Tesla?While no single factor can explain Tesla's substantial decline last year, some things stand out. For starters, many investors were unnerved by Elon Musk, whose acquisition of social media company Twitter led him to unload Tesla shares and possibly get distracted from his role as its CEO. Market participants also began to fear that rising competition in the EV industry would crush Tesla's growth and margins.The good news is that both of these concerns look overblown. Five months into Musk's Twitter acquisition, Tesla has shown no signs of losing its strategic vision. No longer a fragile growth company, it is also less dependent on the guidance of a single individual and has had plenty of time to build a talented management structure aside from Musk. The company also isn't letting competition hold it back. Flexing scale and pricing power While competition is heating up in the EV industry (leading Tesla to slash its car prices by around 20% globally), this is an opportunity for the automaker to lean into its natural advantages in scale and high margins to outcompete its rivals. So far, so good. First-quarter deliveries surged 36% year over year to 422,875 cars, which is ahead of expectations. And while some analysts expect the lower prices to hurt margins, this is a small price to pay to capture market share and possibly drive unprofitable rivals out of the industry. Further, Tesla believes it can reduce production costs on its next-generation vehicles by half, which would help offset the price cuts over the long term and help the company maintain its profitability. Image source: Getty Images.Tesla is already very profitable compared to its pure-play EV rivals. In 2022, the company generated an operating profit of $13.7 billion (a margin of 17%), while rivals Rivian and Lucid generated operating losses of $6.9 billion and $2.6 billion in the same period.It's hard to see how these companies can keep up with Tesla's pricing power because they lack its economies of scale and manufacturing innovations. Musk warns that both rivals are \"tracking toward bankruptcy\" unless they make dramatic efforts to cut costs.No more crazy overvaluation Tesla stock has come a long way from its overvalued past in 2020 and 2021 when it boasted a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as high as 1,120 and a market capitalization larger than the next five biggest car companies combined. And while the company's current forward P/E of 50 is double the Nasdaq-100 index's average of 26, the premium looks justified by its healthy growth rate and sustainable competitive advantages.Investors still have a chance to buy the dip on shares of this electric vehicle leader.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946270043,"gmtCreate":1680985562383,"gmtModify":1681006583715,"author":{"id":"4130044948530752","authorId":"4130044948530752","name":"Cogsfinman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Easter everyone&nbsp;","listText":"Happy Easter everyone&nbsp;","text":"Happy Easter everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946270043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954205069,"gmtCreate":1676364390052,"gmtModify":1676365508723,"author":{"id":"4130044948530752","authorId":"4130044948530752","name":"Cogsfinman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Surely due for a bit of a pullback now, interested to see how TSLA responds to all scenarios of today's CPI print","listText":"Surely due for a bit of a pullback now, interested to see how TSLA responds to all scenarios of today's CPI print","text":"Surely due for a bit of a pullback now, interested to see how TSLA responds to all scenarios of today's CPI print","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954205069","repostId":"1120289401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120289401","pubTimestamp":1676359725,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120289401?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-14 15:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120289401","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward m","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Today I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.</li><li>This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in Tesla&#39;s price action.</li><li>The company&#39;s market cap now is much higher than its fair value, despite the doubling of my discounted cash flow analysis price output.</li><li>I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy Tesla stock for a lot cheaper.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15402ca3ce706835733f8b286527cedb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>jetcityimage</p><h2>My Coverage History</h2><p>You are now reading my 6th article on<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA). I initiated coverage of TSLA on October 18, 2021, with a buy recommendation. At that time, the company&#39;s outlook seemed rosy and somefundamental tailwinds could support the continuation of the stock rally. Exactly 2 weeks and 3 days after that call, TSLA surged more than 46% and marked its all-time high, which was never reached again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f520233e45c16f09424f3b27c2170986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, author&#39;s notes</p><p>In mid-June 2022, I proposeda pair trade idea- a long position in Tesla and a short position in <b>Lucid Group, Inc.</b>(LCID) for the same dollar amount. I reasoned that the most robust company would continue to outperform the fast-growing niche of the auto market. In contrast, the most overvalued company in the group would continue to experience strong multiple contraction andfall much deeper. Since then, the spread between the two stocks has been comfortable enough to make money even after factoring in the commission on the short position and the sharp drop in TSLA in December 2022:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351f491c1849c318143c36ee85f28264\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>On October 21, I was Neutral, saying Tesla stock was overvalued and warning about the risks in the company&#39;s accounting - this call coincided with the start of &#34;the great meltdown.&#34;</p><p>At the end of December, I caught the news that Elon Musk had stopped selling his stock and would not sell for 1-2 more years - at least that&#39;s what he announced publicly. Few people wrote about it at the time, but as it turned out later, my guess about reducing supply in the market had a positive effect on the price action.</p><p>Inthe last article- &#34;<i>Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100</i>&#34; - I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me -<b>TSLA&#39;s 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction</b>against a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.</blockquote><blockquote>[emphasis added by the author]</blockquote><p>Then I expected TSLA to fall even lower - that&#39;s when I suggested taking a position in the portfolio. I was wrong - after my call, the stock has not fallen below $116 and has gained &gt;80% in 2 weeks and 2 days.</p><h2>My Updated Thesis Today</h2><p>Today <b>I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking and a further downward movement shortly.</b>This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in TSLA&#39;s price action. All of this is coupled with a strong gap between the company&#39;s market capitalization and its fair value [I update my discounted cash flow, or DCF, model upward in today&#39;s article, but that does not solve the overvaluation problem]. I am Neutral on the stock again, but this time more bearish in the short term than before.</p><h2>Profit-Taking Is Around The Corner</h2><p>In recent weeks - and indeed since late December, when the market (SP500) refused to go lower after bouncing off its 200-day moving average - we have seen strong advances in sentiment. The extreme fear of mid-October 2022 has turned into extreme greed by early February 2023, and we are still in an environment of heightened greed, according toCNN&#39;s Fear &amp; Greed Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/420ce6e30e8d175acd52aa1614ba7a9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>It may seem to you in recent days that everyone is expecting another correction from current levels -<i>but that is not the case!</i>The consensus view, if you break down the above index into its component parts, is that the market should continue to rise shortly after the upcoming publication of the February CPI figures.</p><p>The McClellan Volume Summation Index - the volume of shares on the NYSE that are rising compared to the number of shares that are going down - peaked on Feb. 2 and is still at a very high level, which means the market still has a lot more buyers than sellers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d9a80d128086a1fbcd9253302b38d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>The previous highs of this indicator - April 4, August 18, and December 3, 2022 - coincided with the local highs of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPY). The 5-day average of the put/call ratio behaved inversely proportional, which now also indicates an extremely bullish view of the general market:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119d62daa3efc23c3ce1cf80bdcfc4d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNN Business</p><p>I point out these indicators in the Tesla article for two reasons.</p><p><b>First</b>, TSLA is a high-beta [2.11] stock whose 30-day rolling volatility exceeds the market by almost five times [YCharts data]. Simply put, this means that the usually positive correlation between TSLA and SPX forces the former to follow the movement of the latter at double or even triple speed. Now the correlation between Tesla stock and the broader market is broken - this goes against normality and is an anomaly that usually does not last long.</p><p><b>The second reason</b>is that the market rally we have seen recently appears to have been fueled by Tesla buyers. Just look at the volumes of the biggest 12 names:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64359c3491b3ce1db858a6488801de55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg, shared by jeroen blokland [Twitter: @jsblokland]</p><p>The trading volume of Tesla has seen a drastic change in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, a 20-day average trading volume between 60 to 90 million shares per day was considered normal, with volumes exceeding 90 to 100 million being considered remarkable. However, in 2023, days with trading volumes below 150 million are now considered modest.</p><p>In my opinion, this is because in the last few weeks, more people wanted to buy the stock every day - the excitement was enormous when the mood of the crowd changed:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2deed2224374a4d0aac83767ac08b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>socialsentiment.io, author&#39;s notes</p><p>I expect massive profit-taking in TSLA stock now that we are moving from greed to fear again in the market -<b>those who came to chase the rally will most likely start closing their positions en masse, triggering an avalanche effect.</b></p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Technicals Are Bearish</h2><p>I am not a professional technician orCMT holder- just sharing my view on technical things that I find interesting for both bulls and bears.</p><p>The influx of new buyers in recent weeks has pushed the RSI indicator higher - this indicator reached the 85 mark on the 4-hour chart in late January. Since then, however, the strength gradually began to cool down, falling to 63 by February 11. Actually, everything would be fine, but during that time [2 weeks] the stock rose by almost 20%, while the RSI fell - an RSI divergence took place, continuing to this day:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6182ea18a6a3631f1f008ebf066a291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA [4-hour], author&#39;s notes</p><p>The daily chart confirms the bearish outlook for TSLA. We see that on February 9, TSLA stock failed to break through its local resistance zone - the lows of May, June, and October of 2022 - after which the price cooled down slightly (on February 10, we saw a 5% decline). The resulting candlestick pattern is known as the &#34;Bearish abandoned baby&#34;:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a2254681f7ed5e22aae46a4a3af0a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA (session), author&#39;s notes</p><p>This reversal pattern was, for example, on April 5 the beginning of a new downward trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0055c71df4962c92750049a5e7375223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</p><p>Or, for example, at the end of November 2021, when the price tried twice to overcome its local resistance but finally gave up and fell by 17% within a few days:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826001c4e91889dad8fb32141a7f059c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</p><p>This is just an indirect sign that Tesla has a difficult road ahead - you cannot just rely on these patterns. However, against the backdrop of the extreme greed I mentioned earlier, <b>the current technical picture is becoming way clearer in the short term</b>. Clearly bearish.</p><h2>Valuation, Again</h2><p>Let me briefly describe the conclusions I have come to in valuing Tesla last time [Jan. 10, 2023].</p><p>I took some investment banks&#39; reports and the consensus and made the DCF assumptions much more conservative - from the working capital estimates to the WACC. I also tried to use an exit multiple [EV/EBITDA] for the Enterprise Value calculation instead of Gordon&#39;s growth rate to minimize the sensitivity of the model and thus the extent to which the forecast deviates from reality. Then TSLA was valued at $98.53 per share.</p><p>As the company&#39;s subsequent Q4 2022reportshowed, the business has performed much better than I expected - so I have now decided to revise my assumptions again.</p><p>Despite falling prices and an apparent cooling of demand in China and globally, Teslabeatthe EPS consensus forecast [by 7.28%] for the 8th consecutive quarter.</p><p>On Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs&#39; U.S. Autos &amp; Industrial Tech team released a report [proprietary source] on how the automotive industry and some manufacturing companies, in particular, are doing in the U.S. market. According to GS estimates, Tesla has increased its share of the U.S. light vehicle market from 3.9% to 5% over the past year, while finished vehicle inventory in that market remains below historical levels - a clear bullish sign for TSLA investors and an excellent reason to note how the cuts in selling prices are making a positive impact on sales.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd96b3221aaf3e3cdf890fc23bd56ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs&#39; U.S. Autos &amp; Industrial Tech team</p><p>Tyler Durden from ZeroHedgegave interesting figuresa few days after the publication of that GS report. Based onVisual Capitalist&#39;s data, Tyler notes that Tesla is the absolute leader among its competitors in terms of net profit [and so gross profit and EBIT] per car sold.</p><p>It seems like Tesla&#39;s hard work is paying off. The company, known for having trouble keeping up with demand in the past, has seen a major decrease in its order backlog. In just a matter of months, thebacklog has gonefrom a whopping 476,000 units in July 2022 to a much smaller 74,000 units by December 2022. This decrease can be credited to Tesla&#39;s incredible production growth, which saw a 41% increase from 2021 to 2022.</p><p>I cannot update my model by just tweaking the exit multiple or the WACC part - I have to take into account the positive part of the company&#39;s resilience. I decided to stick to consensus revenue growth data; I expect the EBITDA margin to be 8.5% in FY2023 and gradually increase to 15% by E2026. According to my calculations, the EBIT margin will be affected by the upcoming slowdown in the economy, but it will then grow quite actively [1% in FY2023 -&gt; 10% in FY2026].</p><p>The ratios for working capital - including the ratio of receivables to sales, inventories to sales, and payables to sales - appear to be fairly steady and can be predicted for several years into the future without significant changes, based on the average figures. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is a crucial factor, as it greatly impacts the generation of FCF. In the past, this ratio showed a lot of variabilities, but as Tesla has grown, the ratio has steadily decreased. If there is a recession in late 2023, I anticipate that the ratio of CAPEX to sales will drop even further, possibly to as low as 7%. However, I expect it to rebound in 2024 to 8% and gradually reach 9% by E2026 as production continues to increase. Given all that, I am not making any alterations to my previous CAPEX and NWC predictions.</p><p>Just like last time, I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model. But now my inputs shifted a little bit:</p><ul><li>beta = 2.03;</li><li>cost of debt = 8%;</li><li>tax rate = 12.99%;</li><li>risk-free rate = 3.5%;</li><li>cost of equity = 4.5%.</li></ul><p>So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM&#39;s - 12.55%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.</p><p>However, I have decided to increase the exit EV/EBITDA multiple from 12x to 15x so that my valuation model takes into account the hopes of all investors for abnormal growth in the post-forecast period [which will start in only 4 forecast years].</p><p>Here&#39;s the output table I&#39;ve got:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258f1e7ef0f2f41491fd1c7d42880994\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/> </p><p>As you can see, <b>my &#34;fair&#34; price target doubled from $98.53 to $196.89 per share.</b>However, the overvaluation has increased by a factor of ~2.5, as TSLA has already made strong gains in recent weeks.</p><p>It is nice to see that the results of my valuation - despite the rather simple approach of modeling - are around the 60-70% percentile, accordingto Aswath Damodaran&#39;s model. This means that I may be not very far from reality.</p><p>Also, the fact that Tesla&#39;s rally was so fast is not just my opinion. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose assumptions I discussed in great detail in one of my earlier Tesla articles, have noted that the recent rally severely limits the upside potential of TSLA stock in the near term [proprietary source]. The bulls will need a lot more tailwinds and positive news to keep the stock on the upswing:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d72b9d46f30b9fefc071f20f6c060a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley [02/09/2023] + author&#39;s notes</p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>The market&#39;s feeling pretty greedy right now, according to CNN&#39;s Fear &amp; Greed Index - and it looks like Tesla buyers have been driving the recent stock rally. But when the market even hints at slowing down, these buyers are likely to bail and take their profits. The normal relationship between Tesla and the overall market has gone haywire, which probably won&#39;t stick around for long. When the bears get the chance, it looks like Tesla stock will be the first to take a nosedive. Technical signals and a huge divergence from the stock&#39;s &#34;fair value&#34; are already showing this risk.</p><p>However, I may be wrong on all points of my analysis. If, for example, the February figures CPI turn out better than expected, the markets could receive additional growth impetus - investors now have enough cash to spend. Another risk to my thesis is the subjectivity of technical analysis and valuation. Everyone reads and analyzes charts differently, and different time frames lead to different conclusions. On the monthly chart, TSLA is far from being overbought, and even more - it may seem like a great buy right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badab3c2ce2e4808f5965df3e350755f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TrendSpider, TSLA [monthly], author&#39;s notes</p><p>The Morningstar&#39;s systemdisagrees with my fair value conclusions - it thinks TSLA is ~12% undervalued even after its big rally:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad094da2ea771e3dabce7c88c90c2cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Morningstar Premium</p><p>Even though I&#39;ve doubled my price target, I still think Tesla, Inc. is more likely to see a big sell-off now compared to a few weeks ago or the last time I wrote about the company. I&#39;m keeping my Hold [Neutral] rating but can&#39;t suggest buying TSLA because of the reasons mentioned above. I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy this stock for a lot cheaper.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Get Ready For A Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-14 15:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577781-tesla-stock-get-ready-for-a-sell-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120289401","content_text":"SummaryToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking in Tesla, Inc. stock and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in Tesla's price action.The company's market cap now is much higher than its fair value, despite the doubling of my discounted cash flow analysis price output.I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy Tesla stock for a lot cheaper.jetcityimageMy Coverage HistoryYou are now reading my 6th article onTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA). I initiated coverage of TSLA on October 18, 2021, with a buy recommendation. At that time, the company's outlook seemed rosy and somefundamental tailwinds could support the continuation of the stock rally. Exactly 2 weeks and 3 days after that call, TSLA surged more than 46% and marked its all-time high, which was never reached again.TrendSpider, author's notesIn mid-June 2022, I proposeda pair trade idea- a long position in Tesla and a short position in Lucid Group, Inc.(LCID) for the same dollar amount. I reasoned that the most robust company would continue to outperform the fast-growing niche of the auto market. In contrast, the most overvalued company in the group would continue to experience strong multiple contraction andfall much deeper. Since then, the spread between the two stocks has been comfortable enough to make money even after factoring in the commission on the short position and the sharp drop in TSLA in December 2022:Data byYChartsOn October 21, I was Neutral, saying Tesla stock was overvalued and warning about the risks in the company's accounting - this call coincided with the start of \"the great meltdown.\"At the end of December, I caught the news that Elon Musk had stopped selling his stock and would not sell for 1-2 more years - at least that's what he announced publicly. Few people wrote about it at the time, but as it turned out later, my guess about reducing supply in the market had a positive effect on the price action.Inthe last article- \"Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100\" - I wrote the following:No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me -TSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreactionagainst a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.[emphasis added by the author]Then I expected TSLA to fall even lower - that's when I suggested taking a position in the portfolio. I was wrong - after my call, the stock has not fallen below $116 and has gained >80% in 2 weeks and 2 days.My Updated Thesis TodayToday I see a fairly high risk of profit-taking and a further downward movement shortly.This is supported by both the general market indicators and the idiosyncratic technical signs in TSLA's price action. All of this is coupled with a strong gap between the company's market capitalization and its fair value [I update my discounted cash flow, or DCF, model upward in today's article, but that does not solve the overvaluation problem]. I am Neutral on the stock again, but this time more bearish in the short term than before.Profit-Taking Is Around The CornerIn recent weeks - and indeed since late December, when the market (SP500) refused to go lower after bouncing off its 200-day moving average - we have seen strong advances in sentiment. The extreme fear of mid-October 2022 has turned into extreme greed by early February 2023, and we are still in an environment of heightened greed, according toCNN's Fear & Greed Index:CNN BusinessIt may seem to you in recent days that everyone is expecting another correction from current levels -but that is not the case!The consensus view, if you break down the above index into its component parts, is that the market should continue to rise shortly after the upcoming publication of the February CPI figures.The McClellan Volume Summation Index - the volume of shares on the NYSE that are rising compared to the number of shares that are going down - peaked on Feb. 2 and is still at a very high level, which means the market still has a lot more buyers than sellers.CNN BusinessThe previous highs of this indicator - April 4, August 18, and December 3, 2022 - coincided with the local highs of the S&P 500 Index (SPY). The 5-day average of the put/call ratio behaved inversely proportional, which now also indicates an extremely bullish view of the general market:CNN BusinessI point out these indicators in the Tesla article for two reasons.First, TSLA is a high-beta [2.11] stock whose 30-day rolling volatility exceeds the market by almost five times [YCharts data]. Simply put, this means that the usually positive correlation between TSLA and SPX forces the former to follow the movement of the latter at double or even triple speed. Now the correlation between Tesla stock and the broader market is broken - this goes against normality and is an anomaly that usually does not last long.The second reasonis that the market rally we have seen recently appears to have been fueled by Tesla buyers. Just look at the volumes of the biggest 12 names:Bloomberg, shared by jeroen blokland [Twitter: @jsblokland]The trading volume of Tesla has seen a drastic change in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, a 20-day average trading volume between 60 to 90 million shares per day was considered normal, with volumes exceeding 90 to 100 million being considered remarkable. However, in 2023, days with trading volumes below 150 million are now considered modest.In my opinion, this is because in the last few weeks, more people wanted to buy the stock every day - the excitement was enormous when the mood of the crowd changed:socialsentiment.io, author's notesI expect massive profit-taking in TSLA stock now that we are moving from greed to fear again in the market -those who came to chase the rally will most likely start closing their positions en masse, triggering an avalanche effect.Tesla's Technicals Are BearishI am not a professional technician orCMT holder- just sharing my view on technical things that I find interesting for both bulls and bears.The influx of new buyers in recent weeks has pushed the RSI indicator higher - this indicator reached the 85 mark on the 4-hour chart in late January. Since then, however, the strength gradually began to cool down, falling to 63 by February 11. Actually, everything would be fine, but during that time [2 weeks] the stock rose by almost 20%, while the RSI fell - an RSI divergence took place, continuing to this day:TrendSpider, TSLA [4-hour], author's notesThe daily chart confirms the bearish outlook for TSLA. We see that on February 9, TSLA stock failed to break through its local resistance zone - the lows of May, June, and October of 2022 - after which the price cooled down slightly (on February 10, we saw a 5% decline). The resulting candlestick pattern is known as the \"Bearish abandoned baby\":TrendSpider, TSLA (session), author's notesThis reversal pattern was, for example, on April 5 the beginning of a new downward trend:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesOr, for example, at the end of November 2021, when the price tried twice to overcome its local resistance but finally gave up and fell by 17% within a few days:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesThis is just an indirect sign that Tesla has a difficult road ahead - you cannot just rely on these patterns. However, against the backdrop of the extreme greed I mentioned earlier, the current technical picture is becoming way clearer in the short term. Clearly bearish.Valuation, AgainLet me briefly describe the conclusions I have come to in valuing Tesla last time [Jan. 10, 2023].I took some investment banks' reports and the consensus and made the DCF assumptions much more conservative - from the working capital estimates to the WACC. I also tried to use an exit multiple [EV/EBITDA] for the Enterprise Value calculation instead of Gordon's growth rate to minimize the sensitivity of the model and thus the extent to which the forecast deviates from reality. Then TSLA was valued at $98.53 per share.As the company's subsequent Q4 2022reportshowed, the business has performed much better than I expected - so I have now decided to revise my assumptions again.Despite falling prices and an apparent cooling of demand in China and globally, Teslabeatthe EPS consensus forecast [by 7.28%] for the 8th consecutive quarter.On Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs' U.S. Autos & Industrial Tech team released a report [proprietary source] on how the automotive industry and some manufacturing companies, in particular, are doing in the U.S. market. According to GS estimates, Tesla has increased its share of the U.S. light vehicle market from 3.9% to 5% over the past year, while finished vehicle inventory in that market remains below historical levels - a clear bullish sign for TSLA investors and an excellent reason to note how the cuts in selling prices are making a positive impact on sales.Feb. 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs' U.S. Autos & Industrial Tech teamTyler Durden from ZeroHedgegave interesting figuresa few days after the publication of that GS report. Based onVisual Capitalist's data, Tyler notes that Tesla is the absolute leader among its competitors in terms of net profit [and so gross profit and EBIT] per car sold.It seems like Tesla's hard work is paying off. The company, known for having trouble keeping up with demand in the past, has seen a major decrease in its order backlog. In just a matter of months, thebacklog has gonefrom a whopping 476,000 units in July 2022 to a much smaller 74,000 units by December 2022. This decrease can be credited to Tesla's incredible production growth, which saw a 41% increase from 2021 to 2022.I cannot update my model by just tweaking the exit multiple or the WACC part - I have to take into account the positive part of the company's resilience. I decided to stick to consensus revenue growth data; I expect the EBITDA margin to be 8.5% in FY2023 and gradually increase to 15% by E2026. According to my calculations, the EBIT margin will be affected by the upcoming slowdown in the economy, but it will then grow quite actively [1% in FY2023 -> 10% in FY2026].The ratios for working capital - including the ratio of receivables to sales, inventories to sales, and payables to sales - appear to be fairly steady and can be predicted for several years into the future without significant changes, based on the average figures. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is a crucial factor, as it greatly impacts the generation of FCF. In the past, this ratio showed a lot of variabilities, but as Tesla has grown, the ratio has steadily decreased. If there is a recession in late 2023, I anticipate that the ratio of CAPEX to sales will drop even further, possibly to as low as 7%. However, I expect it to rebound in 2024 to 8% and gradually reach 9% by E2026 as production continues to increase. Given all that, I am not making any alterations to my previous CAPEX and NWC predictions.Just like last time, I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model. But now my inputs shifted a little bit:beta = 2.03;cost of debt = 8%;tax rate = 12.99%;risk-free rate = 3.5%;cost of equity = 4.5%.So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM's - 12.55%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.However, I have decided to increase the exit EV/EBITDA multiple from 12x to 15x so that my valuation model takes into account the hopes of all investors for abnormal growth in the post-forecast period [which will start in only 4 forecast years].Here's the output table I've got: As you can see, my \"fair\" price target doubled from $98.53 to $196.89 per share.However, the overvaluation has increased by a factor of ~2.5, as TSLA has already made strong gains in recent weeks.It is nice to see that the results of my valuation - despite the rather simple approach of modeling - are around the 60-70% percentile, accordingto Aswath Damodaran's model. This means that I may be not very far from reality.Also, the fact that Tesla's rally was so fast is not just my opinion. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, whose assumptions I discussed in great detail in one of my earlier Tesla articles, have noted that the recent rally severely limits the upside potential of TSLA stock in the near term [proprietary source]. The bulls will need a lot more tailwinds and positive news to keep the stock on the upswing:Morgan Stanley [02/09/2023] + author's notesThe VerdictThe market's feeling pretty greedy right now, according to CNN's Fear & Greed Index - and it looks like Tesla buyers have been driving the recent stock rally. But when the market even hints at slowing down, these buyers are likely to bail and take their profits. The normal relationship between Tesla and the overall market has gone haywire, which probably won't stick around for long. When the bears get the chance, it looks like Tesla stock will be the first to take a nosedive. Technical signals and a huge divergence from the stock's \"fair value\" are already showing this risk.However, I may be wrong on all points of my analysis. If, for example, the February figures CPI turn out better than expected, the markets could receive additional growth impetus - investors now have enough cash to spend. Another risk to my thesis is the subjectivity of technical analysis and valuation. Everyone reads and analyzes charts differently, and different time frames lead to different conclusions. On the monthly chart, TSLA is far from being overbought, and even more - it may seem like a great buy right now.TrendSpider, TSLA [monthly], author's notesThe Morningstar's systemdisagrees with my fair value conclusions - it thinks TSLA is ~12% undervalued even after its big rally:Morningstar PremiumEven though I've doubled my price target, I still think Tesla, Inc. is more likely to see a big sell-off now compared to a few weeks ago or the last time I wrote about the company. I'm keeping my Hold [Neutral] rating but can't suggest buying TSLA because of the reasons mentioned above. I believe that in 2023, investors will have even better chances to buy this stock for a lot cheaper.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}