To The Moon

Funny how rising wages are never a good thing

The margins for the energy storage business are world class and will continue to grow with scale and a second factory in China. The charging network and infrastructure are slowly becoming a standard globally, and will be a small side business that helps to increase the depth of Tesla's moat. Lithium cell costs are close to our way levels and still falling. There's no really competition at the equality end of the market, and at the lower level Tesla will dominate with the 3rd gen compact vehicle.  Chinese EV companies will struggle to compete on price which is all they can currently do against Tesla. Cyber truck will be highly profitable by the end of 25, which will cut the revenue for the big 3 in the USA, which means they have less capacity to transition to EV production.

Nio and Rivian are going bankrupt. They're unable to scale. As Tesla uses its margins to absorb price cuts, that are also funded by their relentless pursuit of cost savings, there are no BEV manufacturers that can compete. Once the gigafactory in Mexico is running there will be no competing product under 30K USD. With all the IRA credits on the USA this car will likely cost uber 20K, and in some states the cost could be close to 15K. Mexico may not have much left over to export other than to North America. Factor in the growth in the energy side of the business and this will be another major profit driver. I also see I am getting a free option on Tesla achieving FSD and the Optimus robot. If these are achieved then Tesla will be CHOAM and baked in the tens of trillions in the future.

The demand for a tesla is massive. Most can't afford to buy. Reducing the price by say 5% increases their TAM by maybe 10% At the investor day Elon said they were surprised but how much demand increased from small cuts in price. Rob also wants to run the factories at full capacity and is willing to cut margins for growth, the idea being the more cars the bigger the software margins will be over FSD is available. Tesla had margin to cut. No other ev manufacturers can cut their pricing. Most lose money now, so cutting prices increases losses while Tesla is hugely profitable. Tesla can also shift battery supply to the energy business for health margin sales too 

It was a presentation telling investors HOW they will cut costs to achieve the 25K car. Cutting out rare earth's yet making magnets with the same power 🤯 Wanting to show how new ways of refining lithium can work at scale then sharing that knowledge with suppliers 🤯 New production method that will likely have some humanoid robot involvement 🤯 Model3 already 30% cost reduction 🤯

I hope you're right. I want Tesla to help me retire by 55.

2023 is the year of the 4680. This will be the limiting factor for Tesla to increase vehicle production. If they can't ramp up much faster than they have, their growth won't be that great this year.

The prices being paid to Tesla for current deliveries were not at the most recent high prices Elon has admitted the prices were obscenely high for the model Y, but it was the only way to keep the order backlog from being multiple years. As the price of Tesla's vehicles falls their TAM increases exponentially. These prices reductions are mainly due to falling costs. The margin impact is likely minimal.  Likely Tesla competitors will be driven out of business, which will free up supply to Tesla, helping them increase production in an unconstrained manner. It's funny that the commentary is only Tesla has a demand issue, when you look at every auto manufacturer has declining sales except BYD, which now faces model 3 pricing at levels destroying demand for it's most successful electric v

Gj is a joke. A dart board is a better investor. The best metric is to look at what share of the passenger vehicle market did Tesla have. Considering the total market numbers are falling while Tesla is growing sums it up. Tesla is the only electric vehicle manufacturer that can cut prices and still make money. BYD is now in trouble as they make maybe $1500 a car and let end models from Tesla are now similar cost to BYD. the price cuts from Tesla sorry the end to many electric vehicle manufacturers and dry goodbye to Nissan, Mazda, NIO, Xpeng, Lucid

I'll worry about Tesla's share of the entire vehicle market when other manufacturers start to make a profit on their pure EVs. Most loose money which is why the produce so frw, or they make razor thin margins at best. Any price cuts by Tesla will massively increase their addressable market