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Patrick Goh

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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·07-03
  TIGER ROARS, DECADES SOAR.
  Find out more here: TIGER ROARS, DECADES SOAR. Join me to discover exciting features with me on Tiger Trade & win $1,010 worth of rewards!
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  TIGER ROARS, DECADES SOAR.
- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·07-03
  TIGER ROARS, DECADES SOAR.
  Find out more here: TIGER ROARS, DECADES SOAR. Join me to discover exciting features with me on Tiger Trade & win $1,010 worth of rewards!
  231 Comment
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  TIGER ROARS, DECADES SOAR.
- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·05-10
  Best
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·05-09
  Best
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·01-19
  Yeah
  279 Comment
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·01-07
  Good
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·2023-12-13
  $Bank of America(BAC)$
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·2023-11-01
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
  335 Comment
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·2023-05-11
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
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- Patrick GohPatrick Goh
  ·2023-04-14
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  美国银行业动荡余波未平如何维护金融体系稳定考验监管机构智慧
  对此，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯日前表示，近期的银行业动荡并非由美联储激进加息所致。但不可否认的是，这场美国银行业的风波暴露出美国银行系统存在压力。如何维护金融系统稳定在美国银行业危机的余波中，美联储或需要重新审视其货币政策，其面临着抗击通胀与维护金融系统稳定之间的权衡。
  美国银行业动荡余波未平如何维护金融体系稳定考验监管机构智慧
  532 Comment
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Goh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3f83f934eccb1846cb6bbefe2cf981a5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135083870281632","authorIdStr":"4135083870281632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970919378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945619998,"gmtCreate":1681446416914,"gmtModify":1681446420651,"author":{"id":"4135083870281632","authorId":"4135083870281632","name":"Patrick Goh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3f83f934eccb1846cb6bbefe2cf981a5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135083870281632","authorIdStr":"4135083870281632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945619998","repostId":"2327191826","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2327191826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1681436940,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2327191826?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-14 09:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国银行业动荡余波未平 如何维护金融体系稳定考验监管机构智慧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2327191826","media":"金融时报","summary":"对此，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯日前表示，近期的银行业动荡并非由美联储激进加息所致。但不可否认的是，这场美国银行业的风波暴露出美国银行系统存在压力。如何维护金融系统稳定在美国银行业危机的余波中，美联储或需要重新审视其货币政策，其面临着抗击通胀与维护金融系统稳定之间的权衡。","content":"<html><body><article><p>今年3月，美国硅谷银行以及签名银行先后倒闭，一场银行业破产风暴迅速向欧洲蔓延。随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>银行破产，最终被瑞银集团收购。从目前的情况看，随着<span>美联储</span>以及美国财政部出手施以援助，市场对于这场美国银行业风波的担忧渐渐消退，但这并不意味着其金融系统已经完全恢复稳定。</p><p>有分析人士认为，随着银行开始收紧信贷标准，银行业动荡的余波或将继续。并且，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》中，强调了<span>货币政策</span>的大幅收紧正开始对金融部门产生严重的副作用，保护金融体系以及经济活动稳定仍十分关键。</p><p><strong>美国存贷款规模缘何下降</strong></p><p>在硅谷银行以及签名银行破产倒闭事件逐渐平息后，美国商业银行存贷款规模的大幅下降成为了市场关注的焦点。当地时间4月10日，美国纽约联邦储备银行发布的最新报告显示，认为“贷款更难获得”的家庭比例升至2014年以来的最高水平。有58.2%的受访者认为，现在获得贷款的难度比一年前更大。另外，预计“从现在起一年后获得贷款将更为困难”的受访者比例增加至近53%，高于2月时的48.8%。</p><p>西南财经大学全球金融战略实验室主任、首席研究员方明在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，目前美国商业银行存款和贷款规模的下降不是偶然事件，不光是因为硅谷银行破产引起。</p><p>根据美联储公布的2023年4月7日美国商业银行<span>资产负债表</span>，美国商业银行<span>资产</span><span>负债</span>结构的调整是从2022年预期美联储加息开始的。在商业银行证券资产中，2022年同比（下同）下降了2.3%，第二季度至第四季度分别下降了1.5%、5.2%、12.6%，2023年2月大幅下降了6%；银行信贷保持了持续增长，但银行现金资产在2022年大幅下降了23.2%，第一季度至第四季度分别下降了33.8%、38.7%、10.1%和18.8%，2023年2月大幅下降了34%；给商业银行的贷款（银行间拆借资金等）2022年第四季度下降了98.9%，11月和12月分别下降了169.2%和53.7%，2023年2月下降了35.3%。</p><p>“负债端的情况类似，但略好一些。存款从2022年第二季度开始下降，第二季度至第四季度分别下降了0.4%、1.7%、5.0%，2022年整体下降了0.7%，2023年1月和2月分别下降了2.4%和5.8%。也就是说，美联储加息必然会导致商业银行资产负债表的调整。”方明表示。</p><p>与此同时，方明强调，存款下降和流动性压力上升后，贷款必然收缩，核心原因是商业银行惜贷、怕贷。自3月10日硅谷银行宣布破产以来，3月8日当周至3月29日当周，美国商业银行存款下降了4112亿美元，大额定期存款上升了30亿美元，但其他存款下降了4142亿美元；借款（主要指银行间拆借）大幅上升了5461亿美元，可见商业银行流动性仍承受压力。</p><p>日前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在一份研报中表示，在硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭后，随着时间的流逝和监管机构的有效应对，美国公众对银行系统动荡的担忧已逐渐消退，存款进一步外流的风险也有所降低。</p><p><strong>暴露美国银行系统压力</strong></p><p>在硅谷银行破产倒闭后，市场一度将矛头指向了美联储，认为正是美联储从去年开始的大规模加息诱发了硅谷银行的倒闭。对此，纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>日前表示，近期的银行业动荡并非由美联储激进加息所致。但不可否认的是，这场美国银行业的风波暴露出美国银行系统存在压力。威廉姆斯表示，过去美国银行系统的压力导致了信贷趋紧，而美国银行业风波发生后，美联储正在监控信贷状况，目前尚不清楚信贷状况还要有多大程度的收紧。</p><p>另外，值得注意的是，近期有美联储官员表示，银行业的信贷收缩将有助于抑制通胀。对此，方明认为，银行业的信贷收缩的确会有助于抑制通胀，但问题在于程度如何。如果银行业的信贷过度收缩，不仅会抑制通胀，也可能会导致衰退。另外，从导致银行业信贷收缩的根源看，如果存款继续流失、流动性风险大幅上升，可能会引发银行业的危机，通胀可能转向通缩，经济衰退也难以避免。</p><p><strong>如何维护金融系统稳定</strong></p><p>在美国银行业危机的余波中，美联储或需要重新审视其货币政策，其面临着抗击通胀与维护金融系统稳定之间的权衡。“一般而言，美联储需要在维护金融稳定与抑制通胀之间作出选择，美联储的货币政策目标通常包括通胀、经济增长、就业和金融稳定。不过，美联储从2022年3月开始快速大幅加息至今，抑制通胀的措施多，维护金融稳定的措施相对较少。”方明表示。</p><p>不过，美联储还是采取了一定措施来维护金融系统稳定。方明指出，一是调整加息节奏，降低加息幅度，2023年3月仅加息25个基点；二是美国硅谷银行破产后紧急创设银行期限融资计划（BTFP），向银行等合格存款机构提供最长一年的贷款，存款机构以美国国债、机构债务和抵押贷款支持证券以及其他合格资产为抵押，可以看作是定量宽松货币政策；三是利用贴现窗口为存款机构提供流动性等。</p><p>“不过，拥有美元霸权的美国事实上并不害怕危机，反而通常利用全球美元周期制造危机，哪怕是自身的危机，只要能传播全球引发金融市场的动荡，如银行业的危机和发达国家股市泡沫破裂，全球资金一样会回流到美国金融市场。”方明说。</p><p>对于金融体系的不稳定所带来的风险，IMF也提出了自己的看法。IMF经济顾问皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙表示，过去12个月美国货币政策的大幅收紧正开始对金融部门产生严重的副作用，在经历了很长一段时间的低通胀和极低<span>利率</span>之后，去年货币政策的快速收紧引发了长期<span>固定资产</span>收益的大幅损失。</p><p>“全球金融环境急剧收紧可能对信贷环境和公共财政产生巨大影响，这会引起资本大量外流，风险<span>溢价</span>突然上升，资金涌向安全资产从而导致美元升值，全球经济活动会因信心下降、家庭支出收缩和投资减少而显著下滑。在这种严重的下行情景中，全球人均GDP增长恐将接近由正转负——这种情况出现的概率估计为15%左右。”皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙指出。</p><p>IMF认为，监管机构现在就应采取行动，通过加强监管和积极管理市场压力，确保仍然存在的金融脆弱性不会演变成一场全面的金融危机。对于新兴市场和发展中经济体而言，这也意味着要确保其能够适当使用全球金融安全网（包括IMF的预防性安排）；同时，还应确保其能够使用美联储提供的<span>回购</span>工具，或是在存在央行互换安排的情况下予以使用。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国银行业动荡余波未平 如何维护金融体系稳定考验监管机构智慧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-14 09:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023041409585884255ba3&s=b><strong>金融时报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年3月，美国硅谷银行以及签名银行先后倒闭，一场银行业破产风暴迅速向欧洲蔓延。随后，瑞士信贷银行破产，最终被瑞银集团收购。从目前的情况看，随着美联储以及美国财政部出手施以援助，市场对于这场美国银行业风波的担忧渐渐消退，但这并不意味着其金融系统已经完全恢复稳定。有分析人士认为，随着银行开始收紧信贷标准，银行业动荡的余波或将继续。并且，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》中，强调...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023041409585884255ba3&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCFCP":"OceanFirst Financial Corp","BAC":"美国银行","BK4588":"碎股","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","BK4589":"SVB概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023041409585884255ba3&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2327191826","content_text":"今年3月，美国硅谷银行以及签名银行先后倒闭，一场银行业破产风暴迅速向欧洲蔓延。随后，瑞士信贷银行破产，最终被瑞银集团收购。从目前的情况看，随着美联储以及美国财政部出手施以援助，市场对于这场美国银行业风波的担忧渐渐消退，但这并不意味着其金融系统已经完全恢复稳定。有分析人士认为，随着银行开始收紧信贷标准，银行业动荡的余波或将继续。并且，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》中，强调了货币政策的大幅收紧正开始对金融部门产生严重的副作用，保护金融体系以及经济活动稳定仍十分关键。美国存贷款规模缘何下降在硅谷银行以及签名银行破产倒闭事件逐渐平息后，美国商业银行存贷款规模的大幅下降成为了市场关注的焦点。当地时间4月10日，美国纽约联邦储备银行发布的最新报告显示，认为“贷款更难获得”的家庭比例升至2014年以来的最高水平。有58.2%的受访者认为，现在获得贷款的难度比一年前更大。另外，预计“从现在起一年后获得贷款将更为困难”的受访者比例增加至近53%，高于2月时的48.8%。西南财经大学全球金融战略实验室主任、首席研究员方明在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，目前美国商业银行存款和贷款规模的下降不是偶然事件，不光是因为硅谷银行破产引起。根据美联储公布的2023年4月7日美国商业银行资产负债表，美国商业银行资产负债结构的调整是从2022年预期美联储加息开始的。在商业银行证券资产中，2022年同比（下同）下降了2.3%，第二季度至第四季度分别下降了1.5%、5.2%、12.6%，2023年2月大幅下降了6%；银行信贷保持了持续增长，但银行现金资产在2022年大幅下降了23.2%，第一季度至第四季度分别下降了33.8%、38.7%、10.1%和18.8%，2023年2月大幅下降了34%；给商业银行的贷款（银行间拆借资金等）2022年第四季度下降了98.9%，11月和12月分别下降了169.2%和53.7%，2023年2月下降了35.3%。“负债端的情况类似，但略好一些。存款从2022年第二季度开始下降，第二季度至第四季度分别下降了0.4%、1.7%、5.0%，2022年整体下降了0.7%，2023年1月和2月分别下降了2.4%和5.8%。也就是说，美联储加息必然会导致商业银行资产负债表的调整。”方明表示。与此同时，方明强调，存款下降和流动性压力上升后，贷款必然收缩，核心原因是商业银行惜贷、怕贷。自3月10日硅谷银行宣布破产以来，3月8日当周至3月29日当周，美国商业银行存款下降了4112亿美元，大额定期存款上升了30亿美元，但其他存款下降了4142亿美元；借款（主要指银行间拆借）大幅上升了5461亿美元，可见商业银行流动性仍承受压力。日前，高盛在一份研报中表示，在硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭后，随着时间的流逝和监管机构的有效应对，美国公众对银行系统动荡的担忧已逐渐消退，存款进一步外流的风险也有所降低。暴露美国银行系统压力在硅谷银行破产倒闭后，市场一度将矛头指向了美联储，认为正是美联储从去年开始的大规模加息诱发了硅谷银行的倒闭。对此，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯日前表示，近期的银行业动荡并非由美联储激进加息所致。但不可否认的是，这场美国银行业的风波暴露出美国银行系统存在压力。威廉姆斯表示，过去美国银行系统的压力导致了信贷趋紧，而美国银行业风波发生后，美联储正在监控信贷状况，目前尚不清楚信贷状况还要有多大程度的收紧。另外，值得注意的是，近期有美联储官员表示，银行业的信贷收缩将有助于抑制通胀。对此，方明认为，银行业的信贷收缩的确会有助于抑制通胀，但问题在于程度如何。如果银行业的信贷过度收缩，不仅会抑制通胀，也可能会导致衰退。另外，从导致银行业信贷收缩的根源看，如果存款继续流失、流动性风险大幅上升，可能会引发银行业的危机，通胀可能转向通缩，经济衰退也难以避免。如何维护金融系统稳定在美国银行业危机的余波中，美联储或需要重新审视其货币政策，其面临着抗击通胀与维护金融系统稳定之间的权衡。“一般而言，美联储需要在维护金融稳定与抑制通胀之间作出选择，美联储的货币政策目标通常包括通胀、经济增长、就业和金融稳定。不过，美联储从2022年3月开始快速大幅加息至今，抑制通胀的措施多，维护金融稳定的措施相对较少。”方明表示。不过，美联储还是采取了一定措施来维护金融系统稳定。方明指出，一是调整加息节奏，降低加息幅度，2023年3月仅加息25个基点；二是美国硅谷银行破产后紧急创设银行期限融资计划（BTFP），向银行等合格存款机构提供最长一年的贷款，存款机构以美国国债、机构债务和抵押贷款支持证券以及其他合格资产为抵押，可以看作是定量宽松货币政策；三是利用贴现窗口为存款机构提供流动性等。“不过，拥有美元霸权的美国事实上并不害怕危机，反而通常利用全球美元周期制造危机，哪怕是自身的危机，只要能传播全球引发金融市场的动荡，如银行业的危机和发达国家股市泡沫破裂，全球资金一样会回流到美国金融市场。”方明说。对于金融体系的不稳定所带来的风险，IMF也提出了自己的看法。IMF经济顾问皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙表示，过去12个月美国货币政策的大幅收紧正开始对金融部门产生严重的副作用，在经历了很长一段时间的低通胀和极低利率之后，去年货币政策的快速收紧引发了长期固定资产收益的大幅损失。“全球金融环境急剧收紧可能对信贷环境和公共财政产生巨大影响，这会引起资本大量外流，风险溢价突然上升，资金涌向安全资产从而导致美元升值，全球经济活动会因信心下降、家庭支出收缩和投资减少而显著下滑。在这种严重的下行情景中，全球人均GDP增长恐将接近由正转负——这种情况出现的概率估计为15%左右。”皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙指出。IMF认为，监管机构现在就应采取行动，通过加强监管和积极管理市场压力，确保仍然存在的金融脆弱性不会演变成一场全面的金融危机。对于新兴市场和发展中经济体而言，这也意味着要确保其能够适当使用全球金融安全网（包括IMF的预防性安排）；同时，还应确保其能够使用美联储提供的回购工具，或是在存在央行互换安排的情况下予以使用。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}