To The Moon

This has been a volatile week for the market. Between seasonality, a high $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (which, as I mentioned last weekend, it suggested a new spike, and weakness in Bitcoin (acting as a risk-off thermometer), we finally saw a bearish resolution. My notes last week regarding the VIX and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ were clear for paid subscribers: “The current price action doesn’t typically reflect a final ‘top’ in volatility. The current level of 17.7 for the VIX is not the cleanest condition for a sustained bull run; a new spike in volatility remains a viable risk.” Additionally, I cited: “For the SPX, a breach of the CWL of 6,901.8 (-0.4%) points to 6,810.6 (-1.8%).” The actual low of the week wa

The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for Oil (CL) shows the cycle from the June 23, 2025 peak ended at the December 16, 2025 low of $54.98. After this completion, Oil began correcting the prior cycle in a larger degree, expected to unfold in either three or seven swings. From the December 16 low, wave ((i)) advanced to $58.88. The pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a zigzag structure. Within this correction, wave (a) ended at $56.65, wave (b) reached $58.87, and wave (c) declined to $55.76. This sequence completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. Oil then resumed higher in wave ((iii)), subdividing into five waves. From wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at $57.17, followed by a pullback in wave (ii) that concluded at $55.86. Wave (iii) advanced to $59.8, while wave (iv) corrected to $58.45. The fi