Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ in my opinion will be one of the best melt-up trade vehicles. This is a clean breakout out of a multi-year consolidation.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
$.SPX(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index closed the week down 1.37%, with market breadth shifting negative as more stocks hit new lows than highs across Nasdaq and NYSE markets—even after the recovery Friday. Early October came with slowing momentum, an amber caution sign then.Market dynamics shift quickly, and while each environment has its unique narrative, my approach—focusing on short-term trend, breadth, and momentum makes for a clear-headed, emotion-free strategy. Each vertical line in the chart below is an instance where all three criteria signaled risk-off. Last Thursday all three signals triggered the alarm: we're officially in a risk-off mode, again. The fourth time in 2024.This approach has effectively flagged recent declines, though this year’
Hello everyone！Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!In February I highlighted $Alibaba(BABA)$$BABA-W(09988)$ and $TENCENT(00700)$ as a part of the "Outside US Equities" trade category, market titans that had declined 70-80%.Nearly 7 months later both Alibaba and Tencent have traded at the trade idea targets, up 60%+. A relatively clean trade. For me, this marked a spot to record some profit. [Happy]Secondary trade targets for Alibaba & Tencent are 175 and 75 respectively. In the same trade category is Coupang which is also nearing its initial trade target.I remain bullish on all three.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: For the second time this year, 3/3 risk-off criteria are simultaneously on. The last time these criteria set off was April 10 where the market declined an additional 4% before finding stability.Price is below its short term trend, breadth as measured by Net New Highs across the NYSE and Nasdaq markets recorded negative, and momentum is negative. I speculate that with the risk-off criteria setting off the alarm, the index is likely to decline further before this correction is complete. An ideal entry to this idea would be a stalled relief rally at 5450 while all 3 criteria remain active.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1
This was an above active week. Week end market thoughts:The modern day risk on barometer $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ closed above 45 yesterday— just a day later the trade is in attempt #2. The index decline peak to trough is 5%. That is a decent pullback. For now, my analysis remains with the notion that a resume to a melt up is more probable versus a deeper 10%+ decline. Breadth continues to do well under the surface with more stocks making new highs than lows. Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1
Market thoughts:- Today was a material single day decline. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is below its short term trend. A checkmark on the risk-off criteria. - Despite the daily decline, breadth remained positive with more stocks making new highs than lows. - Overall 2/3 risk-off criteria are active. I will refrain from bearish thoughts until 3/3- The melt-up scenario is on pause with $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ < 45, my trade there has ended with a paper cut. Will reattempt on next close above 45. Will repeat until melt-up transpires or a bear market never enables price to trade above 45- $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ is still above 212, this is a bright spotFollow
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is up 19% year to date— $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ is down 7.5%. In the melt up scenario I think it very possible ARKK outperforms the index. I’m long ARKK— a decent chance Morningstar’s wealth destroyer commentary marked a bottom for the modern day risk on barometer. +2.4% to open the weekFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1/status/1812855310563897806
The small-cap trade is on— so long as $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ keeps above 45, and $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ above 212 I favour the melt-up narrative with outperformance in this category. Ending last week I am long ARKK. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is up almost 18% year to date and the Nasdaq 20%. In a melt up scenario ARKK trading 70-100 does not feel unreasonable. If a melt up does transpire— greed will blind participants as it always does. My plan is to enjoy the melt up trade through small cap participation, and conclude the trade when the short term trend, breadth and momentum (my “three correction criteria”) falter in the broader market.Follow me to lear
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ thoughts: The modern day risk on barometer closed above subtly 45 to end last week, and is now above the 50-day moving average. If a character change is underway, this moving average has good record of offering price support.I plan to participate actively in ARKK as price consistently trades above 45. This is my favored 'melt-up' trade. Any closes below 45 terminate the trade attempt. Meaningful exposure to the idea will be marked with a breakout above 52. I expect the initial positioning to generate a few paper cuts before establishing full trade size.If price fails to sustain above 45 I will not be interested, and will monitor broader market risk signals (short term trend, breadth and momentum) that favor the odds of a
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ If a melt-up is underway, I believe small caps will outperform due to a mean reversion effect, like an elastic band. Cathie Wood's $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ has been named the 'wealth destroyer'The ETF has been consolidating sideways for nearly two years. While it may take some time for ARKK to break out, there are two key levels to watch for a change in character. The first is 45, which would move the price above the 50-day moving average, a level that has provided strong support. The second, more critical level is 52. Sustained prices above 52 would signal a visible breakout.For me, this ETF serves as a modern-day risk barometer.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/