To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thought: The relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts repeated: “the most effective corrections have a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems very well underway Stalling in the 5000-5150 range is what I am looking for to validate this thought3.Last week the S&P 500 was do

Soon the bouncing cat will have visitors. Sentiment is already shifting on X— if my speculating is correct this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rally has ~75 pts of upside towards 5150 before stalling and resuming the corrective decline that started at the beginning of the month.ImageS&P 500 thoughts mid week: “a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion”— this seems well underway …Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

This morning $TENCENT(00700)$ is breaking out of its well defined consolidation channel. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ continues to consolidate within its triangle at the lower boundary. Coupang digesting its recent breakout. I remain pleased with the “outside of US equites” category trade.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I like to think that the most effective corrections often involve a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks) a relief rally that progresses towards the range of 5050 - 5150 would have this effect.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A wonderful 2% decline throughout the week so far, and now nearly 5% off the all time highs. The correction criteria have worked well in signalling risk in advance. I am pleased with this analysis. As we head into the weekend the index sits at a psychological 5000 level of support. While it is not necessary, the best corrections include a stage where most participants are convinced it has concluded. A rally here towards 5150 I think would do exactly that.Follow me to learn more about anlaysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1781089499696783779

Looks like another slip on the banana peel in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ this morning. 5000 level likely to act as a psychological level of support— like 0.50 does for penny stocks. Probably good for a little relief bounce before resuming the downtrend thereafter.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains below its short term moving average, breadth continues to record as negative, and momentum is now accelerating to the downside— this keeps all three correction criteria as active. It is likely there will be sharp rallies along the way— but for now this corrective move is in my opinion in its beginning stages.Initial target 4800 — with later consideration for a deeper decline 4500-4600.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1780416286947967392

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ I’m paying attention here, and think there is a good chance we will see price trade towards the lower range (40) before setting up to later make a genuine breakout.I tend to think ARKK and $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ categories will create their bottoms before the corrective move in the broader indices $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and Nasdaq has concluded.😁😁😁

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Last week, for the first time since July 2023 all three correction criteria were triggered. A corrective move becomes most probable. (1) The index broke its uptrend by closing below the short term moving average (2) market breadth as measured by Net New Highs, turned negative indicating more stocks made new lows than new highs and(3) momentum continues to fall apart. These three correction criteria have preceded meaningful market declines. In the scenario of a moderate decline I am speculating 7% towards 4800, and in a more severe outcome a 12% decline towards the 4500 - 4600 range. All of these decline targets create a wonderful technical retest of significant levels for the index.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!