tomthetrader1

    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·06-11

      Technical Analysis for .SPX

      Hello everyone!Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts & lesson: More stocks made new lows today versus new highs. Breadth stand-alone is a weak measure of market direction— however, when you pair that with key moving averages the data becomes a magnitude more useful. I know that at a point with negative breadth and the index closing below 5300 it becomes a scenario that heavily points towards a risk off environment. Then there is the backdrop that little good will come to equities following rate cuts— there is a good quote about history rhyming out there…. somehow I don’t feel this is a consensus thought. Being bullish into rate cuts I think will be like swimming against the current / overstaying y
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      Technical Analysis for .SPX
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·06-03

      Technical Analysis for .SPX

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Three criteria set the stage in my analysis for determining the market environment as risk-on or risk-off. 1. Price relative to the short term trend (20-day exp) 2. Breath, represented by Net New Highs across NYSE & Nasdaq markets 3. Momentum using the Percentage Price Oscillator When price falls below the short term trend, breadth turns negative, and momentum slows the market conditions quickly shift to risk-ff, making a decline the next most probable market move. The most recent event was on April 10, a quick and moderate 4% decline followed. At the end of last week, one of three risk off criteria was active. Ending Thursday this was 2/3, however Friday's rally prevented a full set of risk-off signals to trigger
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      Technical Analysis for .SPX
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-31

      .SPX: What's Going on Next?

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Price below short term trend ✅Upside momentum decelerating ✅ Breadth Negative ❎Despite a negative close on all three indices, more stocks made new highs than new lows. 2/3 criteria ending Thurs May 30If the S&P 500 remains below 5245 and breadth paces for a negative close I will position short into the weekend. Initial targets for this trade will be 5100 - 5000. Greater detail, context & charts issues for Sunday morning longer format post + letter.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1
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      .SPX: What's Going on Next?
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-30

      Technical Analysis for .SPX

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Breath closed negative today— and small caps continue to distance themselves from breakout. Stand-alone this is insufficient, but it is a start. From here, this is not looking like a melt-up scenario. At this rate another risk-off scenario will transpire should breadth keep negative and the index close below 4245. In that scenario I will have no heartache returning with a bearish outlook and positioning.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1
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      Technical Analysis for .SPX
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-27

      .SPX: What' Going on Next?

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: The broader market indices continue to trade at or near record all time highs, meanwhile the risk-on participation remains lacking for another week. For a melt-up scenario to develop I believe the risk on categories must participate. Like it or not, ARKK in my view remains the modern market gauge for risk on equities. If you don't like that then the traditional Russell 2000 tells the same story. Risk on participation is absent. Until $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ trades above 52, and IWM above 212 (RUT above 2175) I remain neutral on my broader market thoughts and in no rush to hop aboard the melt-up train. If a melt-up scenario is truly underway, I think it is probable that the
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      .SPX: What' Going on Next?
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-24

      .SPX: What's Going on?

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Is it a melt-up? I don’t think yet. I shared last week while conceding a bearish stance that it would be difficult to become wildly bullish without the risk-on category (small caps) participating. This remains to be the case until $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ break out consistently trading above 212 and 52 respectively. As for the index itself, there is plenty of room before bearish thoughts re-emerge from me. Closing below 5230 would be a start.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1/status/1793666480199942527
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      .SPX: What's Going on?
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-16

      Technical Analysis on .SPX

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index has traded intraday all time highs, breadth is overwhelmingly positive and momentum is about as good as it was when the market made a sharp pivot last November. This is not bearish and certainly makes my most recent index thoughts incorrect. I hesitate to become wildly bullish here, but I certainly cannot remain bearish. While the indices trade at all time highs, small caps (both $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ & $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ ) are further away from breaking out than they were at the end of March— this creates a doubt for me. I do not think it likely that a melt-up or euphoria scenario transpires without th
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      Technical Analysis on .SPX
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-07
      Upper range of relief rally looks to be met this morning — right on cue at the two week mark. So long as price trade between 5150-5000 range I will be of the speculation that the best of the relief rally is over and the decline that started in April is set to resume in May. Target remains 4800 and 4500-4600 under a more severe outcome. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

      .SPX: What's Going on Next?

      @tomthetrader1
      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: I like to think that the most effective corrections often involve a phase where the majority of participants are convinced it has reached its conclusion. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks) a relief rally that progresses towards the range of 5050 - 5150 would have this effect.ImageFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
      .SPX: What's Going on Next?
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    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·05-04

      .SPX: What's Going on Next?

      The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has remained range bound with some good volatility between 5000-5150, trading near the upper range before markets open today. While it may not immediately look like it due to the recent volatility— the index has stalled after the initial bounce. If my speculation is right, price will fail to advance much further from here. My thought remains unchanged— this relief rally has effectively convinced participants the pullback has ended.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1/status/1786374878494630210
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      .SPX: What's Going on Next?
    • tomthetrader1tomthetrader1
      ·04-29

      Technical Analysis on .SPX

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: A déjà vu scenario. I don't mind considering the scenario that repeats a similar path as the decline from last July through October. That corrective move was made difficult precisely because of a multi week period of uncertainty that created confusion for both bull and bear participants. Here is how I am thinking about it. In the decline from July - October 2023 the 2-3 week period of chop showed the market's positive bread as short lived (middle panel) and momentum stalling, barely going above positive (PPO lower panel). Considering these as markers, the analysis becomes simplified in that breadth should remain stressed and momentum fail to gain any meaningful traction if a similar decline path is in development. The
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      Technical Analysis on .SPX
       
       
       
       

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