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- Large CapsLarge Caps
  ·02-15
  Well done Dr. Lisa Su
  AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard
  AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fi
  AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard
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- Large CapsLarge Caps
  ·02-05
  &n
  Nvidia: Was My Late-Summer Crash Call Wrong Or Early?
  Wall Street analyst consensus estimates FY 2026 will DOUBLE FY 2024 levels , which should outline a near TRIPLE of 2022-23 numbers. With all the euphoria floating around this stock, mentioning the fact competition may not allow such a large increase instantly gets booed as impossible. That's how investors think during the tail-end of an incredible upsurge for a particular stock or industry. Seeking Alpha Table - NVIDIA, Analyst Estimates for FY 2024-26, Made February 1st, 2024 For a forward 1-year valuation on projected earnings yield, bulls point to the fact that 2025-26 numbers should provide a decent 3% to 4% rate for buyers around $600 per share today. I will admit if the current forecast for growth comes to fruition,
  Nvidia: Was My Late-Summer Crash Call Wrong Or Early?
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- Large CapsLarge Caps
  ·01-27
  No have never lost sleep over my portfolio but the US Stock markets open at 3:30am New Zealand time and I often check my shares during this period.
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- Large CapsLarge Caps
  ·01-21
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  Why Nio Stock Plunged 15% and Hit a 52-Week Low This Week
  The Chinese electric vehicle stock looks cheap now.
  Why Nio Stock Plunged 15% and Hit a 52-Week Low This Week
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- Large CapsLarge Caps
  ·2023-12-11
  Love you're reports very informative
  Why I'm Upgrading NIO Stock
  NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales and revenue for Q3 2023, but experienced a decrease in gross profit and a net loss.The company launched new products and announced cooperation agre
  Why I'm Upgrading NIO Stock
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- Large CapsLarge Caps
  ·2023-12-05
  Will this stock pull back after its rapid increase over the last year I wonder especially with the insider selling recently!!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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Caps","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done Dr. Lisa Su","listText":"Well done Dr. Lisa Su","text":"Well done Dr. Lisa Su","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274213617447160","repostId":"2411730416","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2411730416","pubTimestamp":1707979747,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2411730416?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-15 14:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411730416","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.</p></li><li><p>Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fiscal years revealed substantial vulnerability to macroeconomic cycles.</p></li><li><p>AMD competes with larger players like Intel and NVIDIA and by far lags behind Nvidia in the GPU industry, limiting its exposure to the AI shift.</p></li><li><p>My target price is $161.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32181a1cf7679ea59ddc25d52008f5\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images</p><h2 id=\"id_354411328\">Introduction</h2><p>Advanced Micro Devices stock has enjoyed massive rallies since the company is widely perceived as one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) revolution. According to my valuation analysis, the massive rally of the last twelve months pushed the stock above its fair price. While I could have opted to pay a significant premium for an undisputed leader in the AI chipmaking market, like NVIDIA (NVDA), I am of the opinion that a company trailing behind, such as AMD, does not merit such a premium valuation. Therefore, I believe that AMD is a &#34;Sell&#34; at the current share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3208995006\">Fundamental analysis</h2><p>According to the latest 10-K report, AMD is a global semiconductor company primarily offering server microprocessors (&#34;CPUs&#34;), graphic processing units (&#34;GPUs&#34;), accelerated processing units (&#34;APUs&#34;), data processing units (&#34;DPUs&#34;), AI accelerators and adaptive system-on-chip (&#34;SoC&#34;) products for data centers. The company also provides chipsets for desktops, notebooks, personal computers (&#34;PCs&#34;), and embedded products.</p><p>AMD emerged as a key beneficiary of the rapidly accelerating digital revolution, driving the stock to appreciate by an impressive 4.5 thousand percent over the past decade, yielding an outstanding annualized return of 45% for investors. While it&#39;s tempting to credit AMD&#39;s success solely to favorable shifts in the microenvironment, it would be remiss not to highlight the exceptional leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Appointed as CEO of AMD a decade ago, Dr. Su&#39;s visionary guidance ushered in a new era of prosperity for the company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05af8787f243225ad7269026d5ae953\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Under Lisa Su&#39;s leadership, AMD experienced remarkable growth, with revenue compounding at 20% and operating margins soaring. However, in recent years, the company faced challenges such as revenue pullback and a sharp decline in operating margin, stemming from unfavorable macroeconomic factors like high inflation, swift monetary policy tightening in developed nations, and significant geopolitical disruptions. Although these challenges may seem transient, it&#39;s crucial to acknowledge that despite its notable growth over the past decade, the business remains considerably vulnerable to macroenvironmental shifts, indicating a lack of resilience.</p><p>Furthermore, the CPU and GPU industries are massively competitive. AMD competes with players like NVIDIA and Intel (INTC), which are much larger in terms of revenue. So far, AMD, under Lisa Su&#39;s leadership, has been very successful in gaining market share in CPU at Intel&#39;s cost, but in a rapidly evolving environment when cutting-edge products&#39; lifecycles are short, there is no guarantee that AMD will be able to consistently sustain its market share while competing with giants like Intel and NVIDIA. In the table below, you can see that in absolute terms, AMD&#39;s gross profit is multiple times lower compared to its primary competitors, meaning it has fewer resources to reinvest in business.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec02bc91146ec3b4e0ddf41c43f91ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>I believe there&#39;s significant optimism surrounding AMD, particularly driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) industry. However, as investors, it&#39;s essential to maintain a level-headed approach and delve deeper into the technological landscape. Historically, AMD has demonstrated strength in CPUs rather than GPUs. Yet, for accelerating computing in AI development, GPUs offer greater capacity and are thus better suited. Unfortunately, in the realm of GPUs, AMD significantly lags behind its competitor, NVDA. Consequently, the company&#39;s exposure to the burgeoning AI trend appears to be severely limited, and investors should be aware.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a89545cfd9ad2bee1c72069ef220ac0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\"/></p><p>tomshardware.com</p><p>The extent to which AMD lags behind NVDA is evident in the most recent financial performance. While NVDA is projected by consensus to record a staggering 119% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2024, AMD demonstrated a revenue decline in such a massive year for semiconductor stocks. The company&#39;s revenue in the PC segment dropped massively, and the growth in the Data Center segment, which is supposed to absorb AI tailwinds, was very far from offsetting the loss.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71456b11d7c2c5e36462a2ca630215cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><p>AMD&#39;s 10-K report FY2023</p><p>Many AMD bulls might say that the company has a more diverse portfolio of offerings and end markets in comparison with NVDA, but it seems that this diversification approach does not work that well for shareholders. While NVDA consensus estimates project a 57% revenue growth for the year, which will end in January 2025 to reach almost $93 billion, AMD is expected to achieve only half of this revenue within the next five years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac5758d1d610884649d5f99c06d69f9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>Some might argue that the significant disparity in expected revenue growth is already factored into the market capitalization of both companies, given that NVIDIA&#39;s market cap is currently approximately six times higher than AMD&#39;s. However, as a long-term investor, I prioritize investing in the underlying business rather than merely the stock as an instrument. In this regard, I favor investing in an undisputed market leader over a laggard struggling to drive revenue growth, especially during a year marked by massive AI enthusiasm.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21408cabb7f5434dd81d19a8bc08b6ba\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"236\"/></p><p>Lib Quotes</p><h2 id=\"id_4210092192\">Valuation analysis</h2><p>AMD showed a strong start in 2024 with a 16.6% stock price increase. The momentum across different timeframes is robust, as the stock price has doubled over the last 12 months and increased by 50% over the last quarter. The stock is currently very close to all-time highs. The current market cap is $278 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4626d115d487f26e52cd1d4e87993f18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>To check whether the current share price is attractive, I will conduct the discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) analysis with a 9.8% discount rate. As I usually do, I incorporate consensus revenue estimates for the two upcoming fiscal years. For the years after FY 2025, I expect a steady 300 basis points yearly revenue growth deceleration. I use a 9.72% TTM levered FCF margin with the expected 100 basis points yearly expansion. Due to all the AI industry tailwinds, I give AMD a very optimistic 8% constant growth rate for the terminal value (&#34;TV&#34;) calculation. Currently, there are about 1.6 billion AMD shares outstanding.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ecc9b8ba72807dcb29507bab4d1208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><p>My DCF analysis gives AMD&#39;s fair share price at $162, which is around 6% lower than the current market levels. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the stock is attractively valued. If AMD was the undisputable leader in the GPU market, I would say that the premium is well-deserved, but paying above the fair price for the company, which substantially lags in terms of market share, does not look sound to me.</p><p>Moreover, it is crucial to highlight that the DCF calculation significantly depends on the terminal value amount, which represents around 90% of the fair share price. That said, decreasing the constant growth rate assumption by a mere 50 basis points decreases AMD&#39;s fair share price to $128, which signals a massive 25% overvaluation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc0f5651e6f3d319acccb833c17bbe99\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><h2 id=\"id_3051334112\">Mitigating factors</h2><p>While I currently hold a bearish outlook on AMD at its present stock price, there are several mitigating factors that could potentially prove me wrong.</p><p>Firstly, we are currently amidst a period of significant market optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI technology. As a prominent player in this sector, AMD stands to benefit from this positive sentiment. For instance, the upcoming earnings report from NVDA at the end of February could be a substantial catalyst for all major semiconductor companies, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in AMD&#39;s share price within a short timeframe.</p><p>Secondly, AMD consistently unveils new chips and accelerators, and the market&#39;s reaction to these offerings could significantly influence the stock price in the short term. There exists a possibility that AMD might introduce a groundbreaking product that garners widespread acclaim, sparking a notable rally in its stock price.</p><p>Lastly, the power of momentum cannot be underestimated. With the stock having surged approximately 50% over the last quarter, a significant portion of this rally may have been driven by the fear of missing out (&#34;FOMO&#34;) effect. In such circumstances, a sell-off in the stock might only occur in the event of a major adverse development for the broader market, such as an unexpectedly weak quarterly report. Given that the next earnings release is still some time away, the momentum behind the stock could persist for the next few months.</p><h2 id=\"id_1738166353\">Conclusion</h2><p>While AMD has exposure to the booming AI industry, I think that the market overestimates the extent of this exposure. AMD is not a trendsetter in the industry, and its GPU market share is multiple times lower compared to the industry leader. Therefore, I consider the current 6% premium to the stock price as a good selling opportunity and assign AMD a &#34;Sell&#34; rating.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-15 14:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411730416","content_text":"AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fiscal years revealed substantial vulnerability to macroeconomic cycles.AMD competes with larger players like Intel and NVIDIA and by far lags behind Nvidia in the GPU industry, limiting its exposure to the AI shift.My target price is $161.Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesIntroductionAdvanced Micro Devices stock has enjoyed massive rallies since the company is widely perceived as one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (\"AI\") revolution. According to my valuation analysis, the massive rally of the last twelve months pushed the stock above its fair price. While I could have opted to pay a significant premium for an undisputed leader in the AI chipmaking market, like NVIDIA (NVDA), I am of the opinion that a company trailing behind, such as AMD, does not merit such a premium valuation. Therefore, I believe that AMD is a \"Sell\" at the current share price.Fundamental analysisAccording to the latest 10-K report, AMD is a global semiconductor company primarily offering server microprocessors (\"CPUs\"), graphic processing units (\"GPUs\"), accelerated processing units (\"APUs\"), data processing units (\"DPUs\"), AI accelerators and adaptive system-on-chip (\"SoC\") products for data centers. The company also provides chipsets for desktops, notebooks, personal computers (\"PCs\"), and embedded products.AMD emerged as a key beneficiary of the rapidly accelerating digital revolution, driving the stock to appreciate by an impressive 4.5 thousand percent over the past decade, yielding an outstanding annualized return of 45% for investors. While it's tempting to credit AMD's success solely to favorable shifts in the microenvironment, it would be remiss not to highlight the exceptional leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Appointed as CEO of AMD a decade ago, Dr. Su's visionary guidance ushered in a new era of prosperity for the company.Data by YChartsUnder Lisa Su's leadership, AMD experienced remarkable growth, with revenue compounding at 20% and operating margins soaring. However, in recent years, the company faced challenges such as revenue pullback and a sharp decline in operating margin, stemming from unfavorable macroeconomic factors like high inflation, swift monetary policy tightening in developed nations, and significant geopolitical disruptions. Although these challenges may seem transient, it's crucial to acknowledge that despite its notable growth over the past decade, the business remains considerably vulnerable to macroenvironmental shifts, indicating a lack of resilience.Furthermore, the CPU and GPU industries are massively competitive. AMD competes with players like NVIDIA and Intel (INTC), which are much larger in terms of revenue. So far, AMD, under Lisa Su's leadership, has been very successful in gaining market share in CPU at Intel's cost, but in a rapidly evolving environment when cutting-edge products' lifecycles are short, there is no guarantee that AMD will be able to consistently sustain its market share while competing with giants like Intel and NVIDIA. In the table below, you can see that in absolute terms, AMD's gross profit is multiple times lower compared to its primary competitors, meaning it has fewer resources to reinvest in business.SAI believe there's significant optimism surrounding AMD, particularly driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (\"AI\") industry. However, as investors, it's essential to maintain a level-headed approach and delve deeper into the technological landscape. Historically, AMD has demonstrated strength in CPUs rather than GPUs. Yet, for accelerating computing in AI development, GPUs offer greater capacity and are thus better suited. Unfortunately, in the realm of GPUs, AMD significantly lags behind its competitor, NVDA. Consequently, the company's exposure to the burgeoning AI trend appears to be severely limited, and investors should be aware.tomshardware.comThe extent to which AMD lags behind NVDA is evident in the most recent financial performance. While NVDA is projected by consensus to record a staggering 119% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2024, AMD demonstrated a revenue decline in such a massive year for semiconductor stocks. The company's revenue in the PC segment dropped massively, and the growth in the Data Center segment, which is supposed to absorb AI tailwinds, was very far from offsetting the loss.AMD's 10-K report FY2023Many AMD bulls might say that the company has a more diverse portfolio of offerings and end markets in comparison with NVDA, but it seems that this diversification approach does not work that well for shareholders. While NVDA consensus estimates project a 57% revenue growth for the year, which will end in January 2025 to reach almost $93 billion, AMD is expected to achieve only half of this revenue within the next five years.SASome might argue that the significant disparity in expected revenue growth is already factored into the market capitalization of both companies, given that NVIDIA's market cap is currently approximately six times higher than AMD's. However, as a long-term investor, I prioritize investing in the underlying business rather than merely the stock as an instrument. In this regard, I favor investing in an undisputed market leader over a laggard struggling to drive revenue growth, especially during a year marked by massive AI enthusiasm.Lib QuotesValuation analysisAMD showed a strong start in 2024 with a 16.6% stock price increase. The momentum across different timeframes is robust, as the stock price has doubled over the last 12 months and increased by 50% over the last quarter. The stock is currently very close to all-time highs. The current market cap is $278 billion.SATo check whether the current share price is attractive, I will conduct the discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") analysis with a 9.8% discount rate. As I usually do, I incorporate consensus revenue estimates for the two upcoming fiscal years. For the years after FY 2025, I expect a steady 300 basis points yearly revenue growth deceleration. I use a 9.72% TTM levered FCF margin with the expected 100 basis points yearly expansion. Due to all the AI industry tailwinds, I give AMD a very optimistic 8% constant growth rate for the terminal value (\"TV\") calculation. Currently, there are about 1.6 billion AMD shares outstanding.Calculated by the authorMy DCF analysis gives AMD's fair share price at $162, which is around 6% lower than the current market levels. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the stock is attractively valued. If AMD was the undisputable leader in the GPU market, I would say that the premium is well-deserved, but paying above the fair price for the company, which substantially lags in terms of market share, does not look sound to me.Moreover, it is crucial to highlight that the DCF calculation significantly depends on the terminal value amount, which represents around 90% of the fair share price. That said, decreasing the constant growth rate assumption by a mere 50 basis points decreases AMD's fair share price to $128, which signals a massive 25% overvaluation.Calculated by the authorMitigating factorsWhile I currently hold a bearish outlook on AMD at its present stock price, there are several mitigating factors that could potentially prove me wrong.Firstly, we are currently amidst a period of significant market optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI technology. As a prominent player in this sector, AMD stands to benefit from this positive sentiment. For instance, the upcoming earnings report from NVDA at the end of February could be a substantial catalyst for all major semiconductor companies, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in AMD's share price within a short timeframe.Secondly, AMD consistently unveils new chips and accelerators, and the market's reaction to these offerings could significantly influence the stock price in the short term. There exists a possibility that AMD might introduce a groundbreaking product that garners widespread acclaim, sparking a notable rally in its stock price.Lastly, the power of momentum cannot be underestimated. With the stock having surged approximately 50% over the last quarter, a significant portion of this rally may have been driven by the fear of missing out (\"FOMO\") effect. In such circumstances, a sell-off in the stock might only occur in the event of a major adverse development for the broader market, such as an unexpectedly weak quarterly report. Given that the next earnings release is still some time away, the momentum behind the stock could persist for the next few months.ConclusionWhile AMD has exposure to the booming AI industry, I think that the market overestimates the extent of this exposure. AMD is not a trendsetter in the industry, and its GPU market share is multiple times lower compared to the industry leader. Therefore, I consider the current 6% premium to the stock price as a good selling opportunity and assign AMD a \"Sell\" rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":270584198762792,"gmtCreate":1707098546838,"gmtModify":1707098550833,"author":{"id":"4161990869312902","authorId":"4161990869312902","name":"Large Caps","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &amp;n","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &amp;n","text":"&n","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/270584198762792","repostId":"2408554695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2408554695","pubTimestamp":1706841662,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2408554695?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-02 10:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Was My Late-Summer Crash Call Wrong Or Early?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2408554695","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wall Street analyst consensus estimates FY 2026 will DOUBLE FY 2024 levels , which should outline a near TRIPLE of 2022-23 numbers. With all the euphoria floating around this stock, mentioning the fact competition may not allow such a large increase instantly gets booed as impossible. That's how investors think during the tail-end of an incredible upsurge for a particular stock or industry. Seeking Alpha Table - NVIDIA, Analyst Estimates for FY 2024-26, Made February 1st, 2024 For a forward 1-year valuation on projected earnings yield, bulls point to the fact that 2025-26 numbers should provide a decent 3% to 4% rate for buyers around $600 per share today. I will admit if the current forecast for growth comes to fruition,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation&#39;s stock price gain of +45% since August makes a steep sell-off in 2024 more likely, not less.</p></li><li><p>Overvaluation stats and the cyclical nature of Nvidia&#39;s business model are reasons for serious concern.</p></li><li><p>Increasing AI-chip competition and a potential recession should lead to sliding earnings growth rates and a material drop in share pricing.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334c39406b53dc6daab6a3f6cd586997\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>I made a bold call in late summer here that <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) would crash and burn into the beginning of 2024. Well, I will admit such did not exactly play out for investors. Instead, the share price rose from $423 to $615 yesterday, good for a +45% jump in value. However, my long-term view hasn&#39;t changed that a wicked sell-off in shares is approaching.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1b8b0a6c3a78ff6ad3b9b648be44c5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA, 5 Years of Weekly Price Change</p><p></p><p>Why? Two factors are part of my thinking. The first is what everyone debates on a daily basis: the overvaluation on trailing fundamentals. The second and equally important reason is Nvidia operates a cyclical semiconductor business. With an equity market capitalization reaching for $1.5 trillion, you have to seriously ask yourself if this AI-chip craze valuation really deserves mention in the same league as less-cyclical <strong>Apple</strong> (AAPL), <strong>Microsoft</strong> (MSFT), <em>Alphabet-Google</em> (GOOG) (GOOGL), <em><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a></em> (META), and <em>Amazon </em>(AMZN) for total company worth?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40e06c8c72a3f09c0a55dc627bc944cf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA vs. U.S. Big Tech Leaders, Equity Market Capitalization, Since 2014</p><p></p><p>Amazingly, believe it or not, Nvidia&#39;s share performance gain over 10 years (150x your investment from early 2014) has far surpassed the previous Big Tech growth darling of <em>Tesla</em> (TSLA), which is already fading markedly for investor returns from mushrooming competition. My argument is Nvidia will soon suffer the same fate, where competition reduces sales growth and crushes future expectations for earnings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c90cec89b8c063bbce8256c7258d118a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>StockCharts.com - NVIDIA, 18 Months of Daily Price &amp; Volume Changes</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_890692222\">Crazy Overvaluation</h2><p>Without a doubt, the +450% Nvidia price gain from October 2022 has everyone questioning how high this stock can go in 2024. For some &#34;<em>gee whiz</em>&#34; stats, Nvidia by itself has increased the S&amp;P 500&#39;s (SP500) total value by +4% and the Wilshire 5000 stocks by +3% over the last 16 months!</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus estimates FY 2026 will DOUBLE FY 2024 levels (January 2023 to January 2024), which should outline a near TRIPLE of 2022-23 numbers. With all the euphoria floating around this stock, mentioning the fact competition may not allow such a large increase instantly gets booed as impossible. That&#39;s how investors think during the tail-end of an incredible upsurge for a particular stock or industry.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bae531468d652ab0ad864ca7d8ef612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Table - NVIDIA, Analyst Estimates for FY 2024-26, Made February 1st, 2024</p><p></p><p>For a forward 1-year valuation on projected earnings yield, bulls point to the fact that 2025-26 numbers should provide a decent 3% to 4% rate for buyers around $600 per share today. I will admit if the current forecast for growth comes to fruition, Nvidia will no longer be wildly overvalued, just mildly so. My gripe is a 2024-25 recession will bring less capital spending by big businesses, even on AI-projects, while other chips with comparable output will come to market. For example, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> (AMD) just launched a competing AI chip to meet strong demand in the marketplace. Many techies believe the AMD architecture might even be a better choice in the long run vs. Nvidia&#39;s high-end offerings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335a030d563e23f901d232925d21c20c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA vs. U.S. Big Tech Leaders, Forward 1-Year Earnings Yield, Since 2021</p><p></p><p>You have to gulp and accept the high-growth Nvidia story as gospel truth, or else the company is insanely overvalued. Let&#39;s look at a 10-year chart of price to trailing fundamentals. Whether reviewing earnings (81x), sales (34x), cash flow (81x), or tangible book value (55x), it&#39;s not hard to understand today&#39;s underlying company valuation metrics are between 4x and 15x the levels of early 2014. The current valuation is unstainable without massive sales and income expansion between 2024-25.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a066575394c128fcb37e0ff359b2baf3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA, Basic Fundamental Ratio Analysis, Price to Trailing Results Since 2014</p><p></p><p>Seeking Alpha&#39;s <em>Quant Valuation Grade</em> system puts an &#34;F&#34; score on Nvidia, and I believe that is being generous. Compared to sector averages or the company&#39;s 5-year history, you are not getting much for your investment dollar upfront. It&#39;s the &#34;promise&#34; and estimates of outstanding growth you are purchasing.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d8729b94884c760a35d014d4def681\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"657\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Table - NVIDIA, Quant Valuation Grade, February 1st, 2024</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_716875038\">Ramping Semiconductor Competition</h2><p>I wrote an article in September 2022 here explaining Tesla&#39;s near monopoly in global electric vehicle production/demand would be a future risk to consider. Effectively, expanding competition would change its future in a bearish way, as Tesla&#39;s primary &#34;moat&#34; to protect the business disappeared. Today, worries about new EV entrants at the same or lower prices points than Tesla models are starting to sink in. Honestly, extensive competition into 2025 and a recession soon could cause earnings to disappear. Auto price cuts mixed with still rising production costs mean declining sales growth rates on top of sharply reduced operating margins will generate far less cash flow and income than bulls thought possible in late 2021. Truth be told, falling business earnings results/expectations are the end game of competitive market forces.</p><p>Over the last six months, all the leading semiconductor names and more have announced the development of inhouse AI chips to compete with NVIDIA. AMD, Google, Amazon, Apple, <em>Qualcomm</em> (QCOM),<strong> </strong><em>International Business Machines</em> (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>), <em>Intel </em>(INTC), and many others have begun spending tens of billions industrywide on research and future production. In the end, Nvidia&#39;s lead may look insurmountable, but it is not from a practical scientific standpoint. My view is that Nvidia stock could be topping as we speak on peak business growth &#34;rates,&#34; much like Tesla did during 2021.</p><h3 id=\"id_1460942993\">Cyclical History</h3><p>Even worse news for Nvidia cheerleaders is that the company has a track record of booms and busts in its operating results and stock quote. Below I have charted the last bust, where crypto mining chip demand peaked, and an industrywide slowdown smashed the stock quote between December 2021 and October 2022. Over 10 months, the quote fell from $320 to almost $100, good for a -70% investor bloodbath. I will note I correctly called for a drop from $300 in November 2021 here to a price closer to $100 in 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bae0e3eda3f81de212d759d0a3f895\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA, Daily Price Changes, December 2021 to October 2022</p><p></p><p>Another oversized dump came in late 2018. Between October and December 2018, Nvidia&#39;s share price plunged by -55%. Somewhat higher interest rates in America and results missing lofty expectations caused the implosion.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed280997b66791c6318ec7af1f7a0570\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA, Daily Price Changes, September 2018 to May 2019</p><p></p><p>We can also review recession performance during 2000-02 and again in 2007-09. Measured from the middle of the 2000 Dotcom Tech bubble peak, Nvidia fell -80% from both its 2000 and 2001 high trades into late 2002. From late 2007 to late 2008, shares dropped an incredible -75%. Added together, buy-and-hold investors at the bubble peak in the year 2000 lost more than half their money (-65%) into the middle of 2010, a whole decade later!</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc026289b9d64022bb4eb3f7944a03f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>YCharts - NVIDIA, Weekly Price Changes, Recessions Shaded, June 2000 to August 2010</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_924027541\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>I would rate my August 2023 Nvidia crash call as both wrong and early. If a shocking share price decline under $300 is coming this year, selling now is still clearly the correct course of action for portfolio management.</p><p>The investment endgame in booms/manias is the higher a stock rises vs. its underlying long-term worth, the harder they eventually fall in the bust phase. The late-1990s Dotcom Tech bubble is perhaps the greatest example of how this works in modern times. Can bulls make a valuation argument that high growth deserves a high valuation? Sure, but if that growth reverses into minor expansion rates, or heaven forbid negative growth in a severe economic recession with mushrooming competition later in 2024 and all of 2025, Nvidia is a prime candidate for horrific investment returns going forward. I am talking about significant investor losses for those unfortunate individuals buying above $600 per share, stretched out over several years, with the lingering potential for a rapid crash in price of -50% to -60%.</p><p>Please don&#39;t say it cannot happen! Tesla&#39;s fall from grace, slipping from $410 a share in November 2021 to $185 currently (-55%) is a testament to the ill effects of losing a near-monopoly position in today&#39;s highly competitive world of technology design and sales.</p><p>Net insider sales are continuing, which isn&#39;t the best vote of confidence by management for Nvidia shareholders. While insider sales are not screaming to get out of the stock, those running the company are happy to liquidate stakes at extended 2023 and 2024 pricing.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c9f05a4b55853cc8f7c83e38c850cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"/></p><p>Nasdaq.com - NVIDIA, Insider Transactions, 12 Months</p><p></p><p>How could Nvidia continue to rise in price during 2024? That&#39;s the question everyone is asking themselves. My view is it will be quite difficult to remain above $600.</p><p>A long list of improbable events will have to play out to create any type of meaningful gain in NVIDIA. We need to avoid recession is #1, which I feel may be an inevitable economic bummer for everyone in America from the ongoing credit/bank liquidity contraction taking place since the summertime.</p><p>The U.S. stock market and related sentiment about the AI future needs to stay abnormally elevated. I remain worried both of these ingredients are unstainable in January 2024. Any type of black swan event from rising crude oil prices on Middle East war, China getting serious about preparing for an attack on Taiwan, Russia invading a NATO-backed Baltic state, Texas seceding from the Union, are just some examples of potential shakeups in the blind optimism visible on Wall Street today.</p><p>Finally, competition cannot under any circumstances invent cheaper and faster AI chips in 2024. If someone does, NVIDIA will crash.</p><p>Basically, a &#34;goldilocks&#34; scenario is now the prerequisite to hold up the Nvidia Corporation share quote. Since I am not a fan of fairy tales, I am keeping my <em>Strong Sell</em> rating from August for the stock. Either my bearish viewpoint will be redeemed, or my name will be mud later in the year with Nvidia bulls and long-time shareholders. I will take my chances.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Was My Late-Summer Crash Call Wrong Or Early?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Was My Late-Summer Crash Call Wrong Or Early?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-02 10:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666890-nvidia-was-my-late-summer-crash-call-wrong-or-early><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation's stock price gain of +45% since August makes a steep sell-off in 2024 more likely, not less.Overvaluation stats and the cyclical nature of Nvidia's business model are reasons for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666890-nvidia-was-my-late-summer-crash-call-wrong-or-early\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4220":"综合零售","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU0690374615.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666890-nvidia-was-my-late-summer-crash-call-wrong-or-early","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2408554695","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation's stock price gain of +45% since August makes a steep sell-off in 2024 more likely, not less.Overvaluation stats and the cyclical nature of Nvidia's business model are reasons for serious concern.Increasing AI-chip competition and a potential recession should lead to sliding earnings growth rates and a material drop in share pricing.I made a bold call in late summer here that Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) would crash and burn into the beginning of 2024. Well, I will admit such did not exactly play out for investors. Instead, the share price rose from $423 to $615 yesterday, good for a +45% jump in value. However, my long-term view hasn't changed that a wicked sell-off in shares is approaching.YCharts - NVIDIA, 5 Years of Weekly Price ChangeWhy? Two factors are part of my thinking. The first is what everyone debates on a daily basis: the overvaluation on trailing fundamentals. The second and equally important reason is Nvidia operates a cyclical semiconductor business. With an equity market capitalization reaching for $1.5 trillion, you have to seriously ask yourself if this AI-chip craze valuation really deserves mention in the same league as less-cyclical Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet-Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN) for total company worth?YCharts - NVIDIA vs. U.S. Big Tech Leaders, Equity Market Capitalization, Since 2014Amazingly, believe it or not, Nvidia's share performance gain over 10 years (150x your investment from early 2014) has far surpassed the previous Big Tech growth darling of Tesla (TSLA), which is already fading markedly for investor returns from mushrooming competition. My argument is Nvidia will soon suffer the same fate, where competition reduces sales growth and crushes future expectations for earnings.StockCharts.com - NVIDIA, 18 Months of Daily Price & Volume ChangesCrazy OvervaluationWithout a doubt, the +450% Nvidia price gain from October 2022 has everyone questioning how high this stock can go in 2024. For some \"gee whiz\" stats, Nvidia by itself has increased the S&P 500's (SP500) total value by +4% and the Wilshire 5000 stocks by +3% over the last 16 months!Wall Street analyst consensus estimates FY 2026 will DOUBLE FY 2024 levels (January 2023 to January 2024), which should outline a near TRIPLE of 2022-23 numbers. With all the euphoria floating around this stock, mentioning the fact competition may not allow such a large increase instantly gets booed as impossible. That's how investors think during the tail-end of an incredible upsurge for a particular stock or industry.Seeking Alpha Table - NVIDIA, Analyst Estimates for FY 2024-26, Made February 1st, 2024For a forward 1-year valuation on projected earnings yield, bulls point to the fact that 2025-26 numbers should provide a decent 3% to 4% rate for buyers around $600 per share today. I will admit if the current forecast for growth comes to fruition, Nvidia will no longer be wildly overvalued, just mildly so. My gripe is a 2024-25 recession will bring less capital spending by big businesses, even on AI-projects, while other chips with comparable output will come to market. For example, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) just launched a competing AI chip to meet strong demand in the marketplace. Many techies believe the AMD architecture might even be a better choice in the long run vs. Nvidia's high-end offerings.YCharts - NVIDIA vs. U.S. Big Tech Leaders, Forward 1-Year Earnings Yield, Since 2021You have to gulp and accept the high-growth Nvidia story as gospel truth, or else the company is insanely overvalued. Let's look at a 10-year chart of price to trailing fundamentals. Whether reviewing earnings (81x), sales (34x), cash flow (81x), or tangible book value (55x), it's not hard to understand today's underlying company valuation metrics are between 4x and 15x the levels of early 2014. The current valuation is unstainable without massive sales and income expansion between 2024-25.YCharts - NVIDIA, Basic Fundamental Ratio Analysis, Price to Trailing Results Since 2014Seeking Alpha's Quant Valuation Grade system puts an \"F\" score on Nvidia, and I believe that is being generous. Compared to sector averages or the company's 5-year history, you are not getting much for your investment dollar upfront. It's the \"promise\" and estimates of outstanding growth you are purchasing.Seeking Alpha Table - NVIDIA, Quant Valuation Grade, February 1st, 2024Ramping Semiconductor CompetitionI wrote an article in September 2022 here explaining Tesla's near monopoly in global electric vehicle production/demand would be a future risk to consider. Effectively, expanding competition would change its future in a bearish way, as Tesla's primary \"moat\" to protect the business disappeared. Today, worries about new EV entrants at the same or lower prices points than Tesla models are starting to sink in. Honestly, extensive competition into 2025 and a recession soon could cause earnings to disappear. Auto price cuts mixed with still rising production costs mean declining sales growth rates on top of sharply reduced operating margins will generate far less cash flow and income than bulls thought possible in late 2021. Truth be told, falling business earnings results/expectations are the end game of competitive market forces.Over the last six months, all the leading semiconductor names and more have announced the development of inhouse AI chips to compete with NVIDIA. AMD, Google, Amazon, Apple, Qualcomm (QCOM), International Business Machines (IBM), Intel (INTC), and many others have begun spending tens of billions industrywide on research and future production. In the end, Nvidia's lead may look insurmountable, but it is not from a practical scientific standpoint. My view is that Nvidia stock could be topping as we speak on peak business growth \"rates,\" much like Tesla did during 2021.Cyclical HistoryEven worse news for Nvidia cheerleaders is that the company has a track record of booms and busts in its operating results and stock quote. Below I have charted the last bust, where crypto mining chip demand peaked, and an industrywide slowdown smashed the stock quote between December 2021 and October 2022. Over 10 months, the quote fell from $320 to almost $100, good for a -70% investor bloodbath. I will note I correctly called for a drop from $300 in November 2021 here to a price closer to $100 in 2022.YCharts - NVIDIA, Daily Price Changes, December 2021 to October 2022Another oversized dump came in late 2018. Between October and December 2018, Nvidia's share price plunged by -55%. Somewhat higher interest rates in America and results missing lofty expectations caused the implosion.YCharts - NVIDIA, Daily Price Changes, September 2018 to May 2019We can also review recession performance during 2000-02 and again in 2007-09. Measured from the middle of the 2000 Dotcom Tech bubble peak, Nvidia fell -80% from both its 2000 and 2001 high trades into late 2002. From late 2007 to late 2008, shares dropped an incredible -75%. Added together, buy-and-hold investors at the bubble peak in the year 2000 lost more than half their money (-65%) into the middle of 2010, a whole decade later!YCharts - NVIDIA, Weekly Price Changes, Recessions Shaded, June 2000 to August 2010Final ThoughtsI would rate my August 2023 Nvidia crash call as both wrong and early. If a shocking share price decline under $300 is coming this year, selling now is still clearly the correct course of action for portfolio management.The investment endgame in booms/manias is the higher a stock rises vs. its underlying long-term worth, the harder they eventually fall in the bust phase. The late-1990s Dotcom Tech bubble is perhaps the greatest example of how this works in modern times. Can bulls make a valuation argument that high growth deserves a high valuation? Sure, but if that growth reverses into minor expansion rates, or heaven forbid negative growth in a severe economic recession with mushrooming competition later in 2024 and all of 2025, Nvidia is a prime candidate for horrific investment returns going forward. I am talking about significant investor losses for those unfortunate individuals buying above $600 per share, stretched out over several years, with the lingering potential for a rapid crash in price of -50% to -60%.Please don't say it cannot happen! Tesla's fall from grace, slipping from $410 a share in November 2021 to $185 currently (-55%) is a testament to the ill effects of losing a near-monopoly position in today's highly competitive world of technology design and sales.Net insider sales are continuing, which isn't the best vote of confidence by management for Nvidia shareholders. While insider sales are not screaming to get out of the stock, those running the company are happy to liquidate stakes at extended 2023 and 2024 pricing.Nasdaq.com - NVIDIA, Insider Transactions, 12 MonthsHow could Nvidia continue to rise in price during 2024? That's the question everyone is asking themselves. My view is it will be quite difficult to remain above $600.A long list of improbable events will have to play out to create any type of meaningful gain in NVIDIA. We need to avoid recession is #1, which I feel may be an inevitable economic bummer for everyone in America from the ongoing credit/bank liquidity contraction taking place since the summertime.The U.S. stock market and related sentiment about the AI future needs to stay abnormally elevated. I remain worried both of these ingredients are unstainable in January 2024. Any type of black swan event from rising crude oil prices on Middle East war, China getting serious about preparing for an attack on Taiwan, Russia invading a NATO-backed Baltic state, Texas seceding from the Union, are just some examples of potential shakeups in the blind optimism visible on Wall Street today.Finally, competition cannot under any circumstances invent cheaper and faster AI chips in 2024. If someone does, NVIDIA will crash.Basically, a \"goldilocks\" scenario is now the prerequisite to hold up the Nvidia Corporation share quote. Since I am not a fan of fairy tales, I am keeping my Strong Sell rating from August for the stock. Either my bearish viewpoint will be redeemed, or my name will be mud later in the year with Nvidia bulls and long-time shareholders. I will take my chances.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":267286378045544,"gmtCreate":1706286531326,"gmtModify":1706287478917,"author":{"id":"4161990869312902","authorId":"4161990869312902","name":"Large Caps","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No have never lost sleep over my portfolio&nbsp;but the US Stock markets open at 3:30am New Zealand time and I often check my shares during this period.","listText":"No have never lost sleep over my portfolio&nbsp;but the US Stock markets open at 3:30am New Zealand time and I often check my shares during this period.","text":"No have never lost sleep over my portfolio but the US Stock markets open at 3:30am New Zealand time and I often check my shares during this period.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/267286378045544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":265347607822392,"gmtCreate":1705806311770,"gmtModify":1705813119752,"author":{"id":"4161990869312902","authorId":"4161990869312902","name":"Large Caps","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/265347607822392","repostId":"2404680162","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2404680162","pubTimestamp":1705718980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2404680162?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-20 10:49","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Why Nio Stock Plunged 15% and Hit a 52-Week Low This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2404680162","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric vehicle stock looks cheap now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NEV sales in China have slowed down in recent weeks.</p></li><li><p>Nio&#39;s sales growth in the fourth quarter was significantly below peers.</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a> stock tumbled over 15% this week and hit a 52-week low of $5.86 per share. Nio is all set to begin deliveries of its 2024 models in March, but that may not be enough to grow its clout in an industry where competition is getting increasingly intense by the day. Worse yet, the EV industry is also slowing down, as evident by the latest data from China.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611498a7b95bf6cde0c699458e4d9cd0\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"547\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1089519492\">EV sales in China are falling</h2><p>China is the world&#39;s largest EV market, and Nio is among the leading players. The Chinese EV industry, however, has shown visible signs of a slowdown in recent weeks. This week, data from the China Passenger Car Association revealed a 21% drop in retail new energy vehicles (NEV) sales in China between Jan. 1 and Jan. 14 compared to a similar period from December.</p><p>Meanwhile, Nio&#39;s peers are growing sales at a faster pace, with <strong>XPeng</strong> and <strong>Li Auto</strong> reporting 171% and 185% growth in fourth-quarter deliveries, respectively. Nio&#39;s Q4 deliveries barely rose 25% year over year.</p><p>To be fair, in recent months, Nio has transitioned all its models to an advanced second-generation platform, which hit production and began deliveries last quarter. However, there&#39;s no denying that competition is catching up with the Chinese EV maker. With EV leader <strong>Tesla</strong> slashing the prices of its cars in China in recent days, Nio must work even harder to boost sales.</p><h2 id=\"id_3288991419\">Is Nio stock a buy now?</h2><p>Nio doesn&#39;t plan to launch new models for the better part of 2024 because it has just upgraded all its models to a new platform and will start delivering them in March. Nio is also confident of launching its mass-market brand later this year, which should open up more demand segments for the company. Further, Nio&#39;s Q4 deliveries exceeded its guidance, and it delivered a record number of vehicles – a little over 160,000 units -- in 2023, up 31% year over year.</p><p>With Nio also cutting costs and investing aggressively in its battery-swap business, which is a big competitive advantage, long-term investors will find value in Nio stock now as it trades at only 1.5 times price-to-sales (P/S).</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Nio Stock Plunged 15% and Hit a 52-Week Low This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Nio Stock Plunged 15% and Hit a 52-Week Low This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-20 10:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/19/why-nio-stock-plunged-18-to-a-52-week-low-this-wee/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEV sales in China have slowed down in recent weeks.Nio's sales growth in the fourth quarter was significantly below peers.Nio stock tumbled over 15% this week and hit a 52-week low of $5.86 per share...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/19/why-nio-stock-plunged-18-to-a-52-week-low-this-wee/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/19/why-nio-stock-plunged-18-to-a-52-week-low-this-wee/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2404680162","content_text":"NEV sales in China have slowed down in recent weeks.Nio's sales growth in the fourth quarter was significantly below peers.Nio stock tumbled over 15% this week and hit a 52-week low of $5.86 per share. Nio is all set to begin deliveries of its 2024 models in March, but that may not be enough to grow its clout in an industry where competition is getting increasingly intense by the day. Worse yet, the EV industry is also slowing down, as evident by the latest data from China.EV sales in China are fallingChina is the world's largest EV market, and Nio is among the leading players. The Chinese EV industry, however, has shown visible signs of a slowdown in recent weeks. This week, data from the China Passenger Car Association revealed a 21% drop in retail new energy vehicles (NEV) sales in China between Jan. 1 and Jan. 14 compared to a similar period from December.Meanwhile, Nio's peers are growing sales at a faster pace, with XPeng and Li Auto reporting 171% and 185% growth in fourth-quarter deliveries, respectively. Nio's Q4 deliveries barely rose 25% year over year.To be fair, in recent months, Nio has transitioned all its models to an advanced second-generation platform, which hit production and began deliveries last quarter. However, there's no denying that competition is catching up with the Chinese EV maker. With EV leader Tesla slashing the prices of its cars in China in recent days, Nio must work even harder to boost sales.Is Nio stock a buy now?Nio doesn't plan to launch new models for the better part of 2024 because it has just upgraded all its models to a new platform and will start delivering them in March. Nio is also confident of launching its mass-market brand later this year, which should open up more demand segments for the company. Further, Nio's Q4 deliveries exceeded its guidance, and it delivered a record number of vehicles – a little over 160,000 units -- in 2023, up 31% year over year.With Nio also cutting costs and investing aggressively in its battery-swap business, which is a big competitive advantage, long-term investors will find value in Nio stock now as it trades at only 1.5 times price-to-sales (P/S).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":250713474826296,"gmtCreate":1702228277382,"gmtModify":1702260510933,"author":{"id":"4161990869312902","authorId":"4161990869312902","name":"Large Caps","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Love you're reports very informative&nbsp;","listText":"Love you're reports very informative&nbsp;","text":"Love you're reports very informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/250713474826296","repostId":"2389079231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2389079231","pubTimestamp":1702027800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2389079231?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-08 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I'm Upgrading NIO Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2389079231","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales and revenue for Q3 2023, but experienced a decrease in gross profit and a net loss.The company launched new products and announced cooperation agre","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales and revenue for Q3 2023, but experienced a decrease in gross profit and a net loss.</p></li><li><p>The company launched new products and announced cooperation agreements, but still needs to raise new rounds of investment.</p></li><li><p>NIO&#39;s financials have improved, but strong competition and pricing limitations may continue to impact the company&#39;s margins.</p></li><li><p>If management&#39;s cost-cutting plan bears fruit, a short covering could kick in that could provide growth of several tens of percent.</p></li><li><p>Given this upside risk, I have decided to upgrade NIO from &#39;Sell&#39; to &#39;Hold&#39;, expressing my neutral stance on the stock and suggesting you step aside or think about closing out a short position if you have one.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddf0943a93f4ecd7825e6732cb46f8a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_821818281\">Introduction</h2><p>I&#39;ve been writing about <strong>NIO Inc.</strong> (NYSE:NIO) stock here on Seeking Alpha since November 2022. I have rated the stock a &#39;Sell&#39; from the beginning and have confirmed this again and again, last updating my coverage of the stock in September 2023. So far, my calls have aged well, as far as I can tell.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a830c579187e1631a10d69a2c1c12fe\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stock\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stock\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stock</span></p><p>A few hours ago from the moment I sat down to write today&#39;s article, NIO presented its Q3 FY2023 report and the company&#39;s management commented in detail on the work done and the next plans. So I decided to take another look at NIO to put my old thesis to the test.</p><h2 id=\"id_3298937044\">Financials, Developments, And Valuation</h2><p>In Q3 FY2023, NIO delivered 55,432 vehicles, reflecting a notable 75.4% increase from Q3 FY2022 and a remarkable 135.7% jump from Q2 FY2023. The substantial growth was driven by the delivery of 37,585 premium smart electric SUVs and 17,847 premium smart electric sedans. Financially, NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales, reaching RMB 17,408.9 million ($2,386.1 million) for Q3 2023, marking a 45.9% rise from the same period in 2022 and an impressive 142.3% surge from the previous quarter. NIO&#39;s vehicle margin fell to 11.0% from 16.4% last year, while the strong gross margin fell to 8.0% from 13.34% in Q3 FY2022.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9199117cc3c6f18f4ac3a2f4d22fe8f9\" alt=\"Excel, author&#39;s work, NIO&#39;s data\" title=\"Excel, author&#39;s work, NIO&#39;s data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/><span>Excel, author&#39;s work, NIO&#39;s data</span></p><p>While experiencing a decrease in gross profit compared to Q3 2022, the third quarter of 2023 saw a substantial increase of 1,650.9% from Q2 2023, reaching RMB 1,523.3 million ($208.8 million). However, the operating loss was still quite impressive: it fell by 21% quarter-on-quarter, but was 22% higher than in the previous year:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed9360537e87e706cd8fc108ada88137\" alt=\"Excel, author&#39;s work, NIO&#39;s data\" title=\"Excel, author&#39;s work, NIO&#39;s data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"/><span>Excel, author&#39;s work, NIO&#39;s data</span></p><p>The net loss for Q3 2023 was RMB 4,556.7 million ($624.6 million), marking a 10.8% increase from Q3 2022, but a substantial 24.8% decrease from Q2 2023. Adjusted for share-based compensation expenses, the non-GAAP adjusted net loss was RMB 3,953.2 million ($541.8 million), indicating a 13.0% increase from Q3 2022, but a substantial 27.4% decrease from Q2 2023.</p><p>In September 2023, NIO launched the All-New EC6, a second-generation mid-sized coupe SUV, completing its product line on the NT2.0 platform. They also introduced China&#39;s first vehicle operating system, SkyOS, and an in-house-developed LiDAR SoC named Yang Jian. In terms of assisted and intelligent driving, NIO released the Power Swap Pilot for Highway beta on November 15th, seamlessly integrating NLP+ and Power Swap for an automated and intelligent highway driving and battery-swapping experience. Regarding the battery-swapping alliance, NIO announced cooperation agreements with Changan and Geely, emphasizing the network effect and potential for sustainable business models. The company plans to expand its power swap network, with potential CapEx and consideration of introducing partners who will hold the battery swap station assets.</p><p>As of September 30, 2023, NIO had RMB 45.2 billion ($6.2 billion) in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investment, and long-term time deposits. So NIO may theoretically cover 2 years of operations with its liquidity, which is still not enough for the scaling goals it has set for itself. So in my humble opinion, raising new rounds of investment at the expense of existing shareholders is just a matter of time.</p><p>In September and October 2023, the company has already completed an offering of convertible senior notes, raising a total of $1.15 billion. Following the pricing of the new notes, the company used a portion of the net proceeds (approximately US$500 million) to repurchase some of its existing convertible senior notes due in 2026 and 2027 through privately negotiated transactions. The purpose of the repurchase was to retire some of the existing debt using the newly raised funds. The company intends to use the remaining net proceeds (not used for the repurchase) to strengthen its balance sheet and for general corporate purposes.</p><p>NIO makes attempts to lower its costs. As was mentioned during the Q&amp;A session on the recent earnings call, NIO is set to acquire some production facility assets from JAC, and there will be around a 10% reduction in manufacturing costs when bringing the entire manufacturing process in-house. But this 10% reduction in production costs seems to me like a drop in the bucket compared to the absolute costs that the company still incurs today.</p><p>As far as I can see, NIO&#39;s financials have improved in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, but strong competition in the industry will likely continue to limit the company&#39;s pricing flexibility and it will take longer for the company to regain its previous margins. Perhaps the majority of market participants came to the same conclusion by selling shares after the post-earnings rip:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636ea876c43fc31ac13bb73bcb611cc7\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha News\" title=\"Seeking Alpha News\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span>Seeking Alpha News</span></p><p>Looking at the latest earnings projections by Wall Street, we see that as of December 6, 2023, EPS estimates for FY2023 and FY2024 are -$1.53 and -$0.84, compared to -$1.44 and -$0.78 on October 16, 2023. That is, after the report was released, the consensus numbers crawled lower, which is an overall negative point. The positive for NIO is that this downward trend only affected 2 forecast years and was not too severe. However, the dynamics of the revenue forecast show significantly worse results:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f565a7547a9c66bd342cd33774f571\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Earnings Revisions\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Earnings Revisions\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Earnings Revisions</span></p><p>The company cannot be valued based on FCF, as it is a growth company whose first positive earnings per share are forecasted to appear in 2027. More precisely, it is theoretically possible to build a DCF model, but such calculations have no practical meaning due to their strong sensitivity to a too uncertain future. What we can do is take a look at NIO&#39;s multiples. Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant System gives NIO a &#39;C-&#39; Valuation grade, meaning that the stock is no longer as overvalued as it was 3 months ago. However, apart from the sales-related multiples, which are indeed modest, we don’t even have a forward EV/EBITDA. Based on a combination of various SA Quant metrics, the company ranks among the last in its industry.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb3fbb0feca2375f1eb84c249b2a3ce\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Valuation page, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Valuation page, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Valuation page, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>In my opinion, NIO looks overvalued with a price-to-book ratio of over 6x and an operating loss of over $660M for just one quarter. However, I do not recommend selling the stock at its current price levels because a) Q3 results were better than I expected and b) the number of short sellers has increased sharply recently, which may lead to short covering against the backdrop of any minor positive news about the company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ed9593c6953b3b404bf73586bdef3c\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2712682667\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>As fate would have it, NIO&#39;s expansion took place at a time when competition in the industry was increasing rapidly and consumers were becoming much more selective in the face of the deteriorating economic situation, particularly in China.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/494607fe3658a987fe61af32a7d09c87\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley [December 5, 2023 - proprietary source]\" title=\"Morgan Stanley [December 5, 2023 - proprietary source]\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\"/><span>Morgan Stanley [December 5, 2023 - proprietary source]</span></p><p>I think NIO remains too expensive even after the stock fell 88% off ATH. However, there are already small operational improvements, at least in a QoQ comparison. The company&#39;s margins will continue to be under pressure in my opinion, but they have already started to grow faster than I had previously expected. If management&#39;s cost-cutting plan bears fruit, a short covering could kick in that could provide growth of several tens of percent. Even small positive news is enough for such an outcome - we have seen this many times in recent months with various stocks. Given this upside risk, I have decided to upgrade NIO from &#39;Sell&#39; to &#39;Hold&#39;. This doesn&#39;t mean I&#39;m recommending you hold NIO stock in your portfolio; I&#39;m just expressing my neutral stance on the stock and suggesting you step aside or think about closing out a short position if you have one.</p><p><em>Thanks for reading!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I'm Upgrading NIO Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I'm Upgrading NIO Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-08 17:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656625-why-im-upgrading-nio-stock><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales and revenue for Q3 2023, but experienced a decrease in gross profit and a net loss.The company launched new products and announced cooperation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656625-why-im-upgrading-nio-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","09866":"蔚来-SW","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4099":"汽车制造商","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656625-why-im-upgrading-nio-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2389079231","content_text":"NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales and revenue for Q3 2023, but experienced a decrease in gross profit and a net loss.The company launched new products and announced cooperation agreements, but still needs to raise new rounds of investment.NIO's financials have improved, but strong competition and pricing limitations may continue to impact the company's margins.If management's cost-cutting plan bears fruit, a short covering could kick in that could provide growth of several tens of percent.Given this upside risk, I have decided to upgrade NIO from 'Sell' to 'Hold', expressing my neutral stance on the stock and suggesting you step aside or think about closing out a short position if you have one.IntroductionI've been writing about NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stock here on Seeking Alpha since November 2022. I have rated the stock a 'Sell' from the beginning and have confirmed this again and again, last updating my coverage of the stock in September 2023. So far, my calls have aged well, as far as I can tell.Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stockA few hours ago from the moment I sat down to write today's article, NIO presented its Q3 FY2023 report and the company's management commented in detail on the work done and the next plans. So I decided to take another look at NIO to put my old thesis to the test.Financials, Developments, And ValuationIn Q3 FY2023, NIO delivered 55,432 vehicles, reflecting a notable 75.4% increase from Q3 FY2022 and a remarkable 135.7% jump from Q2 FY2023. The substantial growth was driven by the delivery of 37,585 premium smart electric SUVs and 17,847 premium smart electric sedans. Financially, NIO reported a significant increase in vehicle sales, reaching RMB 17,408.9 million ($2,386.1 million) for Q3 2023, marking a 45.9% rise from the same period in 2022 and an impressive 142.3% surge from the previous quarter. NIO's vehicle margin fell to 11.0% from 16.4% last year, while the strong gross margin fell to 8.0% from 13.34% in Q3 FY2022.Excel, author's work, NIO's dataWhile experiencing a decrease in gross profit compared to Q3 2022, the third quarter of 2023 saw a substantial increase of 1,650.9% from Q2 2023, reaching RMB 1,523.3 million ($208.8 million). However, the operating loss was still quite impressive: it fell by 21% quarter-on-quarter, but was 22% higher than in the previous year:Excel, author's work, NIO's dataThe net loss for Q3 2023 was RMB 4,556.7 million ($624.6 million), marking a 10.8% increase from Q3 2022, but a substantial 24.8% decrease from Q2 2023. Adjusted for share-based compensation expenses, the non-GAAP adjusted net loss was RMB 3,953.2 million ($541.8 million), indicating a 13.0% increase from Q3 2022, but a substantial 27.4% decrease from Q2 2023.In September 2023, NIO launched the All-New EC6, a second-generation mid-sized coupe SUV, completing its product line on the NT2.0 platform. They also introduced China's first vehicle operating system, SkyOS, and an in-house-developed LiDAR SoC named Yang Jian. In terms of assisted and intelligent driving, NIO released the Power Swap Pilot for Highway beta on November 15th, seamlessly integrating NLP+ and Power Swap for an automated and intelligent highway driving and battery-swapping experience. Regarding the battery-swapping alliance, NIO announced cooperation agreements with Changan and Geely, emphasizing the network effect and potential for sustainable business models. The company plans to expand its power swap network, with potential CapEx and consideration of introducing partners who will hold the battery swap station assets.As of September 30, 2023, NIO had RMB 45.2 billion ($6.2 billion) in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investment, and long-term time deposits. So NIO may theoretically cover 2 years of operations with its liquidity, which is still not enough for the scaling goals it has set for itself. So in my humble opinion, raising new rounds of investment at the expense of existing shareholders is just a matter of time.In September and October 2023, the company has already completed an offering of convertible senior notes, raising a total of $1.15 billion. Following the pricing of the new notes, the company used a portion of the net proceeds (approximately US$500 million) to repurchase some of its existing convertible senior notes due in 2026 and 2027 through privately negotiated transactions. The purpose of the repurchase was to retire some of the existing debt using the newly raised funds. The company intends to use the remaining net proceeds (not used for the repurchase) to strengthen its balance sheet and for general corporate purposes.NIO makes attempts to lower its costs. As was mentioned during the Q&A session on the recent earnings call, NIO is set to acquire some production facility assets from JAC, and there will be around a 10% reduction in manufacturing costs when bringing the entire manufacturing process in-house. But this 10% reduction in production costs seems to me like a drop in the bucket compared to the absolute costs that the company still incurs today.As far as I can see, NIO's financials have improved in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, but strong competition in the industry will likely continue to limit the company's pricing flexibility and it will take longer for the company to regain its previous margins. Perhaps the majority of market participants came to the same conclusion by selling shares after the post-earnings rip:Seeking Alpha NewsLooking at the latest earnings projections by Wall Street, we see that as of December 6, 2023, EPS estimates for FY2023 and FY2024 are -$1.53 and -$0.84, compared to -$1.44 and -$0.78 on October 16, 2023. That is, after the report was released, the consensus numbers crawled lower, which is an overall negative point. The positive for NIO is that this downward trend only affected 2 forecast years and was not too severe. However, the dynamics of the revenue forecast show significantly worse results:Seeking Alpha, NIO's Earnings RevisionsThe company cannot be valued based on FCF, as it is a growth company whose first positive earnings per share are forecasted to appear in 2027. More precisely, it is theoretically possible to build a DCF model, but such calculations have no practical meaning due to their strong sensitivity to a too uncertain future. What we can do is take a look at NIO's multiples. Seeking Alpha's Quant System gives NIO a 'C-' Valuation grade, meaning that the stock is no longer as overvalued as it was 3 months ago. However, apart from the sales-related multiples, which are indeed modest, we don’t even have a forward EV/EBITDA. Based on a combination of various SA Quant metrics, the company ranks among the last in its industry.Seeking Alpha, NIO's Valuation page, author's notesIn my opinion, NIO looks overvalued with a price-to-book ratio of over 6x and an operating loss of over $660M for just one quarter. However, I do not recommend selling the stock at its current price levels because a) Q3 results were better than I expected and b) the number of short sellers has increased sharply recently, which may lead to short covering against the backdrop of any minor positive news about the company.Data by YChartsThe Bottom LineAs fate would have it, NIO's expansion took place at a time when competition in the industry was increasing rapidly and consumers were becoming much more selective in the face of the deteriorating economic situation, particularly in China.Morgan Stanley [December 5, 2023 - proprietary source]I think NIO remains too expensive even after the stock fell 88% off ATH. However, there are already small operational improvements, at least in a QoQ comparison. The company's margins will continue to be under pressure in my opinion, but they have already started to grow faster than I had previously expected. If management's cost-cutting plan bears fruit, a short covering could kick in that could provide growth of several tens of percent. Even small positive news is enough for such an outcome - we have seen this many times in recent months with various stocks. Given this upside risk, I have decided to upgrade NIO from 'Sell' to 'Hold'. This doesn't mean I'm recommending you hold NIO stock in your portfolio; I'm just expressing my neutral stance on the stock and suggesting you step aside or think about closing out a short position if you have one.Thanks for reading!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":248713137967168,"gmtCreate":1701758893081,"gmtModify":1701760639383,"author":{"id":"4161990869312902","authorId":"4161990869312902","name":"Large Caps","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will this stock pull back after its rapid increase over the last year I wonder especially with the insider selling recently!!","listText":"Will this stock pull back after its rapid increase over the last year I wonder especially with the insider selling recently!!","text":"Will this stock pull back after its rapid increase over the last year I wonder especially with the insider selling recently!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248713137967168","repostId":"2388211211","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}