$Oracle(ORCL)$ RPO backlog is a promise, not revenue yet — but it's the right kind of promise. Hyperscalers don't sign multi-year OCI contracts unless the infrastructure is real. The selloff is the market demanding proof. Fair enough. But if OCI growth accelerates this print and Ellison confirms capex is on track, this is just noise shaking out weak hands before the next leg up. I'm holding my position. The thesis hasn't broken — the stock just got caught in the broader AI hardware selloff. One number to watch: OCI revenue growth rate vs last quarter. That's the whole story Wednesday night.
S&P inclusion sounds bullish but passive flows hit on the 22nd. Whoever's holding by then is selling into the rebalancing. New CFO starting same week adds uncertainty. 85x forward PE in a sector that averages 35x. That's not AI premium — that's hope. Holding MU and AVGO. Keeping cash dry. The dip after inclusion is the entry, not today.
