To The Moon

It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the "U.S. Crash Confidence Index," was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, "What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by "rare, extreme events" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia