Wall Street Is Going All-in on Election Betting Markets. What You Need to Know
'Jury is out' on whether betting markets are a better guide to election outcomes than poll-based models: researcher. Political betting markets aren't new, but a too-close-to-call, high-stakes presidential election and wariness over traditional polling has led Wall Street investors to look to the shifting probabilities offered by wagering platforms for guidance."I would say the jury is still out" when it comes to whether betting markets are a better guide than polling-based models, Sethi told MarketWatch, in a phone interview.Contrast that with the site's average of national polls, which showed a tie with Trump and Harris at 48.4% each. A polling-based election model produced by website 538 also showed a close race; run the model 100 times and Trump wins 53 times, while Harris wins 47 times.