I'm all for concentration and against over diversification. I'm the biggest voucher out there that owning individual stocks is the way forward vs ETFs. We're in a stock pickers market more than any time in history: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ YTD 220% $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ YTD 82% $Micron Technology(MU)$ YTD 238% etc etc vs $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ at 9.7% BUT It's sad to see this whole "all-in" investing with one or two stocks becoming 100% of people's net worth become a norm. Yes there are success stories. But there are FAR MORE disaster stories. I
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost). A reminder on how I see it at $180+ -> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA. -> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth). -> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B. > Add in $250M in net cash -> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some ai trading ideas with you! 1 $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ is nearly back at highs after the space / high beta sell off. Reminder: Set to hit $150M in revenue by FY29 which means it's growing ~32% CAGR over the next 3 years. Whilst trading at 8x sales vs a company like $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ at 32x sales. Again, not making the claim that $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ should trade in line with $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ but for similar growth forecasts, I'm not sure the difference should in multiple for be fo
Here's a thought experiment on the longer term robotics TAM.
Probably worth a read for those who have lost a bit of faith in robotics plays like $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ at $2.5B MC or Harmonic Drive (6324) at $4.3B MC or $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. Note this is just a look at US TAM & this a more bullish take. ~170 million Americans are employed * $65k average salary = $11T (today). There is no world where robots replace humans entirely but figuring out a fair % is the way to do it. By 2040: Here's the key industries (not an exhaustive list): 1. Manufacturing: ~12.8M workers at avg wage $58k -> total wage pool of $740B. -> $BMW.NE, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$,
The entirety of this article is dedicated to smaller cap names. I spent a lot of time researching this weekend some names that aren’t spoken about as much online. I think there’s good potential in the following[Claw]1. American Battery Technology | $AMERICAN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY CO(ABAT)$ABAT is a vertically integrated battery-materials/recycling company in the US operating across:Recycling lithium-ion batteries.Proprietary extraction for battery grade-materials (in development).Currently hold unpatented mining claims in Nevada (future option).I already hold ALB which is my large value play to hopefully ride the lithium tailwinds over the next year, but I’m trying to find a smaller cap stock in the same niche that potentially has more upside than AL
AMZN is a solid way to compound your money over a 5-year period
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ over the last 5 years: +65% $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ over the last 5 years: +95% This is one of the best businesses in the world lagging the market. Here's how I value AWS alone If AWS grows at just 15% CAGR for the next 7 years, they'll have $286B in revenue in 2032. At 45% operating income, that brings in $128.7B in operating income. With a conservative 15x multiple you're looking at a $1.9T Cloud business over the next few years. The total $AMZN valuation today is $2.25T. I don't think $AMZN is a 3-4x opportunity. But it's a solid way to compound your money over a 5-year period.Image
$LMND just did 20% in the Last Week. A 10x Opportunity
Here's what you need to know about this 10x opportunity $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ ImageI've been investing into $LMND for a long time now and I've built the position to be the biggest in my portfolio now. I'd love to welcome counter arguments to the below thesis so please do come forward and attack the name if you disagree... I have a big position in $LMND now (relative to the size of my portfolio) purely because I believe the opportunity ahead when they inflect to profitability will be huge. To be honest, it's one of the few names in the market that I feel very comfortable loading up on at today's prices. I write about $LMND in alot of my newsletter and my spreadsheets for my paid subs so here goes. This one is long but I hope it helps a few of you:
The stock market saw the biggest intraday swing ever today. We are hours away from the largest economy in the world levying a 104% tariff on the second largest economy in the world. Bond yields are now above 4.2% - higher than Liberation Day. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Fwd PE is 18x. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is now trading at a Fwd PE similar to 2009. It's an incredible opportunity. Here's a one-page investment thesis:Image
Here's 5 companies that have growing revenue rates AND great margin expansion.
Not many companies have growing revenue rates AND great margin expansion. Here's 5 that do 👇1. Palantir | $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ NTM EV/Sales: 53.0x Revenue growth Q4 23: 19.6%Revenue growth Q4 24: 36.0% Margins have expanded from 4.4% in 2022 to 9.6% in 2024. Safe to say there's no company that has executed as well as $PLTR over the last 24 months.2. Lemonade | $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ NTM EV/Sales: 3.4x Revenue growth Q2 24: 16.7% Revenue growth Q4 24: 29.6% Net income margin is booming at $LMND as they scale up. They are currently already FCF profitable and expect EBITDA profitability in 2026 and net income profitability in 2027.3. Shopify | $Shopify(SHO