Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: 1. OPTICS SEGMENT Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs. Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028. 2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29. 3. TOTAL REVS Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here. 60% * $822M = $493M in revs 80% * $822M = $657 in revs 4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES Current share count is at 69.7M. SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting
95% of X is focused on semis, photonics, and memory it seems? What about the AI drug discovery theme? -> $AbCellera Biologics(ABCL)$ +55% in a week. -> $Tempus AI(TEM)$ still wildly undervalued, especially post $Microsoft(MSFT)$ partnership. -> $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ as the $1.1T (future -> $4T drug discovery leader). What about the critical minerals/materials/metals theme everyone on X went crazy about last year and then forgot about? -> $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ is likely no longer
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ risk to reward makes complete sense. Here's why: BULL CASE: The bull case is a situation where management forecasts happen. I.e. $471M/month in revenue by mid 2027 / $5.6B (likely more) in revenue by FY28. $Lumentum(LITE)$ has a current sales multiple of 13x. 20% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is attributed to this segment so 20% * 13x = 2.6x sales. Innolight and Eoptolink trade ~9x sales and this is where 80% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is likely to come from. 80% * 9x = 7.2x Blended multiple = 9.8
Here's my 2030 $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ estimate: -> $950M in revenue in 2030 (41% CAGR from today / midpoint of management guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins (bull case) -> $330M in EBITDA -> 30% EBITDA margins (base case) -> $285M in EBITDA -> $330M in EBITDA multiplied by 30x EBITDA (bull case) gives us a $9.9B EV (vs $2.4B today) -> $285M in EBITDA multiplied by 25x EBITDA (base case) gives us a $7.1B EV (vs $2.4B today).
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Has $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ become one of the more manipulated stocks in the market? -24% today on a beat and guidance raise. - Last 2 quarters we saw +15% moves pre-market only to finish the day negative 10%. Big picture look at the trends: -> LAE to 5% -> GLR at 60% -> Adj. EBITDA profitability in Q4 -> Premium per customer up 2 Before anyone starts to lose faith in their holdings post earnings report sell offs... Just realize $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ probably couldn't have produced a better ER if they tried. And they're now down 7% from reporting. The CEO even said "our engagement with customers
AEHR& FLNC: Two Names I Think People Need to Understand More
Two names I think people need to understand more: 1. $Aehr Test(AEHR)$: -> Now given back nearly all of earnings gain (which was +40%). -> So many names map back to $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ -> Guiding for $140M (midpoint) which is ~170% growth from FY26 expected revenue for 20x sales. -> Not cheap...but certainly a big opportunity when you take into account $100M backlog too. 2. $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$: -> Now given back more than the Q1 earnings jump -> FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2B - $3.6B and the current MC is $2.5B. -> And then there's $5.6B in backlog which DOES NOT include the hyperscaler p
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I always take what Elon says with a pinch of salt but directionally he's been correct almost every time. Here's what he's saying on the robotics future: 1. Reinforced Optimus will be potentially the biggest product ever. -> Optimus 3 targets 1M units/year -> Optimus 4 targets 10M units/year Think of the numbers on that in terms of potential revenue: Assuming ~$30k value and selling all units (very broad assumption): -> Optimus 3 = $30B/year -> Optimus 4 = $300B/year Longer term remember Elon calls the revenue potential "north of $10 trillion." Probably early. Very early. But directionally he's consistently correct and this has to give you some confidence in the robotics future:
Robotics is moving so fast...here's some of the data from the last couple months: 1. Morgan Stanley put their TAM to $25T by 2050 (humanoid market at $5T). 2. We've had the first way to publicly invest in humanoids through $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. -> On that point, Agility uses ~75% US sourced parts (very bullish). 3. Private market deals have already topped $23B in 2026. -> Saronic: $1.75B raise -> Apptronik: $935M raise -> Figure AI: $39B valuation -> Neura Robotics: $1.4B raise The public markets haven't caught up to what's happening in the private markets yet. 4. Morgan Stanley put out a report forecasting a 300x growth in the bearings market by 2050. 5.