It's very important to understand that: 1. FUD is normal. 2. FUD is a good thing long term. The last thing investors want (or for that matter the AI buildout wants) is a rapid buildout with no financing issues and no energy bottleneck issues and then a rapid crash. Bottlenecks are important. It slows down the buildout to a pace that is sustainable. It's easy to get spooked. Doomer posts always spread far quicker than non-doomer posts but just realize that the AI trade is far from priced in. 1. There are still bottlenecks. 2. There are still multi-year buildouts. We will hit a bubble at some point but that time is still 4-5 years away at least in my opinion.
SOFI: That's a Very Conservative Take on the Valuation
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ just lost a key support level. Not great news looking purely at the chart but the numbers speak for themselves: Valuation: -> Trade at 21 NTM EPS growing at 49% CAGR through to 2028 (0.42x PEG). -> For 2030 forecasts, analysts are estimating ~$1.71 in EPS (+30% CAGR from today). So even if $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ trades at 0.6x PEG by then...we'd have a EPS multiple of 18x. 18x on $1.71 = $31 share price. That's a very conservative take on the valuation.
Sit Back and Give the Markets Time: The Pain Trade Remains Higher
By far the best thing you can do now as an investor is sit back and give the markets time. So far $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ has seen no structural break so there's no reason to shift more defensive yet. You just need patience. You've got optics plays at inflection point. As a reminder: -> $Lumentum(LITE)$ sold out to 2029. -> $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$set to ~12x revenue in 2 years. -> $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ is set to 10x revenue by 2031. You've also got
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Ok so we have: 1. Paul Tudor Jones: "2027 is going to be a very challenging year for the market." "I'll be short the whole year." Just when two months ago he said he "just bought more AI stocks and that the AI trade has another year to run." 2. Michael Burry: "The stock market is in its first stage of grief which is denial." This guy has missed the entire AI trade. 3. Blackrock: Downgraded US equities to neutral "to manage potential volatility around the AI buildout." 4. Ray Dalio: Called the AI boom a "classic bubble" whilst missing out on the entire AI trade. vs 1. Goldman Sachs: Upgraded its position on US equities to overweight on better valuations post recent pullback. 2. JP Morgan: Continues to highlight AI driven ear
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ saw the largest inflows in history last week. Positive news for the bull case but another sign that investors are extremely reactive and FOMO'ing in. Brazil has always held huge potential. It's always had upside from: -> The commodity cycle (Brazil has huge copper reserves and is therefore an underrated play on the AI buildout). -> Rare earth (Brazil controls ~90% of the worlds niobium). -> Rapid connection of data centers to the grid vs Europe and US powered by surplus renewables. -> A hedge against the US market. Brazil always had legs. Finally people are realizing it as
MU Still Has to be One of the More Mispriced Stocks in the Market
$Micron Technology(MU)$ still has to be one of the more mispriced stocks in the market especially after Davidson just raised their PT to $3,000. Here's some key points on $Micron Technology(MU)$: 1. Keep saying it's cyclical all you want. It's still not. -> 87% gross margins are not a sign of a "cyclical" stock. -> $33B worth of FCF (61% margins) + cash position covering a further buildout is not a sign either. 2. If EPS doesn't grow from Q1 forecast...we're looking at $153 in EPS in FY27 which means the stock trades at 7x EPS. -> For reference the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ now trades ~21x EPS. 3. 87% gr
EWZ is Far More Than An "Anti-AI Market" like JP Morgan are Calling it
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Brazil $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ is far more than an "anti-AI market" like JP Morgan are calling it. It wins in an AI bull market and as a hedge against an AI bull market. People are massively underestimating how physical the AI buildout is. And people are also massively underestimating how much renewable energy, graphite, and rare earths Brazil has for this AI buildout. Bullish AI -> Bullish Brazil. Renewables: $EBR Rare Earths: $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ Broader: $Vale SA(VALE)$ / $Pet
This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August. My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B. This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting: -> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B. -> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx). -> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT. -> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV. Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030. Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.