I think $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ has ~2x potential from here to FY29/FY30 but not much higher. Relative to the upside potential for other names...it's good but slightly less exciting. I forecast ~$8B in revenue in FY29 which at 19% net margins gives us $1.52B in net income and $0.37 in EPS (4.1B outstanding shares). ~20x EPS estimate which I think is fair given $Uber(UBER)$ ~18x, but with the potential of the financial services platform (combined with the SEA risk) 20x EPS on $0.37 gives you $7.40 (130% gain). Fwiw, I think a recovery play like $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ actually has more upside (but with more risk). Solid but p
Yield Narrative Takes a Back Seat: QQQ Hits New Highs
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! It really does seem like the yield narrative has taken a back seat now as the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ hits a new high today. I've been saying for the past 2 months that: 1. The macro isn't as bad as doomers suggest. 2. The forecasts we're seeing in AI CapEx and the capital flowing to the supply chains from that CapEx will trump an elevated 10Y yield. And now here we are: -> $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ at ATHs -> Crypto breaking out with $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ and $Robinhood(HOOD)$ moving 22% and
I think today's a good day to remind you that the unfathomable forecasts we're seeing from the biggest technological revolution of all time overpower whatever macro guess you decide to make. 10-Y yields are high yes but $iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF(HYG)$ is holding up fine. Also a reminder that $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ is close to an inflection point where the r/r makes complete sense for the buyer at ~1.3x FY28 sales. A reminder that robotics and space themes are going nowhere. Robotics still needs: -> A 300x increase in actuation & bearings... $RBC Bearings(RBC)$ &
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Right... $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ is undervalued at $86. -> CEO says Europe is ~50% of the entire global transplant opportunity (currently only generating ~$20M of revenue in Europe). -> CEO forecasts 30,000 transplants by 2032 generating $2 billion in revenue (18% CAGR for 6 years). -> Director buying $110k worth of shares. -> CEO regularly bought in the +$100 range. -> 2H 2027 is the year revenue starts to get generated from kidneys and Europe. I forecast we hit $2B in revenue in 2032 (18% CAGR from here) which is in line with management commentary if some of the above goes right. At 40% EBITDA margins that's $800M in EBITDA (or 31% CAGR from
The High Risk, High Reward Bets in the Market I See Right Now Are
The high risk, high reward bets in the market I see right now are: - $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$: A higher risk play on mineral security being a form of national security. - $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: A bet on whether it can become a material CPO/NPO optical source player as well as a bet on 4D LiDAR. - $Snap Inc(SNAP)$: My bull case model gives us a $40 stock (6.8x from here). A lot needs to go right to get there. - $Aurora Innovation(AUR)$: Pure execution bet on the industrialization of Volvo, AUMOVIO, and PACCAR. -
Here's How I see COIN as a $250B stock (2030-2032)
Here's how I see $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ as a $250B stock (2030-2032): I'm forecasting $6.2B in stabelcoin revenue: -> $3T stablecoin supply by 2031. -> USDC currently 26% of total supply today. -> $3T * 26% = $780B -> $780B * 25% of all USDC = $195B of USDC on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ -> 4% yield = $7.8B in stablecoin revenue in 2031 I'm forecasting ~$8.2B in total other revenue (transaction revenue + agentic commerce revenue): -> Q2 2026 transaction revenue annualized at $2.4B with $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ down. Forecasting $4B by 2031. -> Prediction markets already at $100M ARR
Here are the Industries Mispriced---Photonics, Robotics& Financial revolution
Markets are currently terrible at pricing inflection point industries. All these three industries are mispriced: 1. Photonics -> $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ inflection point should be early H2 2027. -> GS forecasts for optical transceivers is huge for $Lumentum(LITE)$ and $Coherent(COHR)$. 2. Robotics -> Humanoid economics should inflect 2027/2028. -> Opportunities here are endless from perception to rare earths to actuation to communication. -> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$$Aeva Technologies I
10-Year Yields Being this High isn't Bullish I Know
10-Year Yields being this high isn't bullish I know. But it doesn't trump the fact that we have companies like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ literally forecasting FY28 revenue to be 60% higher than the Street. Remember 30-Year Yields hit 5.09% in October 2023. Were people panicking about yields then? Yes. Have people now missed out on generational runs because their focus was on the wrong thing? Yes. Don't lose focus on the unfathomable numbers we're likely to see in FY27-FY29 because you're being distracted by this constant bearish yield narrative. I remain long and I'll be happy buying up some quality names if markets stay spooked about the macro.
My 2033 Take on Who the Largest 3 Companies in the World
My 2033 take on who the largest 3 companies in the world will be: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Absurd growth still for a +$5T company. - FY28 revenue will be ~$680B - FY30 revenue I forecast to be ~$1.2T - $10T MC seems pretty reasonable based on that. 2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$: - AWS should be generating ~$1T in revs by 2035. - Include everything else (e-comm, digital ads, subscriptions, stakes etc) - $6-8T MC for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is feasible 3. $Eli Lilly(LLY)$: - FY26 already ~$86B. Metabolic franchise can be $150B+ by early 2030s - GLP-1 cash funds the real product: