@Shyon:
The latest rate cut feels like a textbook "dovish move wrapped in a hawkish message." On one hand, the Fed delivered the sixth cut since last year and the third consecutive meeting-based reduction, which clearly signals they're still leaning toward supporting growth. But on the other hand, the Dot Plot is sending a very mixed signal for 2026, with officials scattered across a wide range of expectations. When seven officials see no further cuts in 2026 while others expect up to 150 bps of easing, it tells me the Fed is deeply uncertain about the trajectory of inflation, labor markets, and long-term equilibrium rates. To me, the most important part isn't the extremes—it's the median. The fact that the median 2026 projection still shows just one more 25-bp cut makes the Fed sound more hawkish
