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MsSamKierayu876

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- MsSamKierayu876MsSamKierayu876
  ·04-07
  Nice to know
  Unveiling another side of Altman: lies, intrigue, and trillion-dollar bets
  当OpenAI冲刺万亿估值，掌舵人Altman却身陷“撒谎”的信任危机。随着公司拥抱资本并涉足敏感领域，“安全”底线被悄然剥离。当AGI的终极钥匙交托给游走于现实与虚构边缘的野心家，人类面对的，究竟是改变世界的天才，还是一场无法验证的宏大骗局？
  Unveiling another side of Altman: lies, intrigue, and trillion-dollar bets
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- MsSamKierayu876MsSamKierayu876
  ·04-07
  Mark
  The IEA warns that the intensity of the Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is entering a "Black April"!
  国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol指出，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一受到严重破坏，修复要很长时间。若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损原油与成品油损失将达三月份两倍。
  The IEA warns that the intensity of the Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is entering a "Black April"!
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- MsSamKierayu876MsSamKierayu876
  ·04-05
  Wow
  AI computing power is a fatal flaw! Broadcom's director named "three major bottlenecks," suggesting the capacity shortage may persist until 2027.
  博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。
  AI computing power is a fatal flaw! Broadcom's director named "three major bottlenecks," suggesting the capacity shortage may persist until 2027.
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A survey spanning hundreds of interviews raises questions—<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting to the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by The New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside.<strong>Instead, it came from his closest colleagues and directors.</strong>。 The first charge in an internal memo is \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different people, and this person is leading the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm in 2023, in which he was dismissed and quickly reinstated, did not clarify the issues, but instead deepened the question: When capital, employees and technological forces collectively take sides, has a CEO transcended any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital, and sensitive national infrastructure sectors.<strong>However, the company's internal security commitments have been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from its core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real-world interests.</strong></p><p>The problem thus escalates—it's not just personal integrity, but structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">act</a>The key to this is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is questionable. Does humanity still have the \"right to put the brakes\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty lies in the fact that when the boundaries between reality and narrative begin to blur,<strong>What we are facing is a world-changing genius, or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\" - A secret memo from a former colleague</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed a compilation of approximately 70 pages of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing messages. This batch of materials includes Slack chat logs, human resources files, and explanatory text, some of which were saved by taking photos with a mobile phone, clearly to circumvent monitoring by company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos specifically addressed to Altman began with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam Continues to Show...\", and the first one is: \"Lying.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever accumulated these concerns with his own thought process. He was once a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in OpenAI's office in 2019.</p><p>But as he became increasingly convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal—to create AI that could rival or even surpass human cognition—his doubts about Altman grew. He said to another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they viewed them as confirmation that the two women had each formed a similar judgment. \"He has been given the future of humanity,\" a director with knowledge of the matter told The New Yorker, \"but he is not to be trusted.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman did not appear out of nowhere. His career model was formed long before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford University, he joined Y Combinator (YC), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on phone location, reflecting a long-standing trait of his: interpreting vague rules as rules that benefit him.</p><p>During the Loopt era, some employees were already confused by his exaggerations. A former employee recalled that Altman boasted that he was a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a senior employee who was once assigned by investors to serve as Altman's \"guardian,\" later described this habit as follows:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think I might be able to blur the line between 'and' I've done it. '</strong>In its most extreme form, it could lead to scams like Theranos (a notorious scam in Silicon Valley).</p><p>In 2014, Graham promoted Altman to chairman of the YC before retiring. However, by 2018, several YC partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior. According to several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman, which essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham privately told his YC colleagues that \"Sam had been lying to us all along before Altman was asked to leave.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by YC and that his departure was entirely of his own free will. Graham's public statements were relatively vague, telling The New Yorker, \"We have no legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is exert moral pressure.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Apocalyptic Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, laying the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a technology optimist, but his AI discourse quickly shifted to a doomsday tone. He has repeatedly warned in private and public that AI technology should not be dominated by large, profit-seeking companies. \"If this is eventually going to happen,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be best if someone outside of Google did it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established and registered as a non-profit organization.<strong>The board has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the very existence of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claim that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history, thus requiring an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is highly compelling: it successfully brings together what was originally scattered across<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Top researchers in academia are recruited by a new organization lacking funds.</p><p>According to Sutskever, the recruitment slogan at the time was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, internal contradictions were brewing from the very beginning. According to more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who later founded Anthropic)—these documents were never publicly disclosed—Altman gave different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During negotiations for a $1 billion investment, Amodei made upholding the \"merger and assist\" clause in its articles of association (OpenAI would assist rather than compete if another company was the first to safely develop AGI) its primary bottom line in negotiations, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>However, just as the deal was about to be signed, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the right to block any merger with OpenAI. He immediately questioned Altman, who initially denied the clause existed. Amodei had to read the contract text word for word and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"What he said was almost certainly a lie.\"</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, when the board read out a statement via video call informing Altman that he was no longer an OpenAI employee, he was in Las Vegas watching F1 racing.</p><p>The news shocked the entire tech world. Microsoft was only informed of the layoffs minutes before they occurred—catching the strategic partner, which had already invested more than $13 billion in OpenAI, off guard. \"I was shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone investigation to try to figure out what mistake Altman had made. \"I have no idea what happened to his mother,\" Hoffman told The New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government-in-exile\" consisting of Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway, and crisis communications professional Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks for more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he worked with Microsoft CEO Nadella to coordinate the stance and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati: his allies were \"going all out\" and \"digging up negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who had opposed him, including her. (Altman says he doesn't remember having such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter demanding Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter as well.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new directors (former Harvard University President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>Chief Technology Officer Bret Taylor was selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Could you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, and Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then let Bret take charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. He was reinstated in less than five days.</p><p><strong>Employees call this history \"the Blip,\" borrowing a plot from a Marvel movie: a character disappears and then reappears, unharmed, while the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>That investigation report that was never published</strong></h2>The dismissed directors made independent investigations one of the conditions of their departure. OpenAI hired Wilmer Hale, the law firm that led internal investigations into Enron and WorldCom, to handle this \"review.\" But the whole process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not contact several key parties; Some of the interviewed employees were hesitant to speak frankly due to concerns about insufficient anonymity. \"They only focus on the narrow window of time during the board controversy, not his long history of integrity,\" said one employee interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative report. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging a \"breach of trust\".</p><p>According to sources, the reason there was no written report was because it was not written at all, and the investigation findings were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of oral briefings. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" said a person close to the investigation, \"but it confirmed that he could continue as CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by this private practice. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From Non-profit Commitment of \"Human Security First\" to Profitability and Recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial design was to use a non-profit structure to curb commercial impulses.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the company's success or even survival\". But internal records show that this commitment has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several features of GPT-4 had been approved by the security review committee. Toner's request to review the documents revealed that none of the most controversial features—allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant—had been approved.</p><p>In addition, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping necessary security reviews, which Altman never mentioned in several lengthy briefings with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team,\" the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four eyewitnesses, the actual computing power allocated was between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power was actually used in the oldest clusters with the worst chips.\"</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to bring it up again because \"this promise was never realistic.\"</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left the company.<strong>Leike wrote on social media, \"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products.\" OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has disappeared from the company's description of its \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS filing.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion-dollar bet: Betting on the future of AI with authoritarian regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious business bet is also the one that the outside world is most worried about—<strong>This involves extending AI infrastructure development to authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately referred to him as a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced he would join the advisory board of the Saudi-led future cities project Neom, before withdrawing after strong opposition from his colleagues.</p><p>But according to a policy advisor, Altman immediately began asking if he could somehow circumvent moral pressure to continue obtaining funding from Saudi Arabia. \"The question wasn't, 'Is this a bad thing?' It was, 'What will be the consequences if we do this? Are there export control issues? Are there sanctions? Can I avoid being detected?'\"</p><p>At the same time, he turned his attention to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the younger brother of the UAE president and director of national intelligence, controls approximately $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth and also runs the state-owned AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him a \"dear friend\" on social media, and was invited to board his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing a plan known as \"ChipCo\": funded by Gulf states.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"My understanding is that the board had no knowledge of the whole thing at the time,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and a Commerce Department official clearly informed Altman: \"We do not intend to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the situation changed completely. In his first week in office, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the Stargate project—a $500 billion joint venture aimed at building a massive AI infrastructure network within the United States.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's AI technology export restrictions were lifted, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-backed AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center park in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals, and through these portals we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another portal in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From \"Welcome Regulation\" to Tough Counterattack to Security Bill</h2>In shaping his public image, Altman has long played the role of an outlier among tech giants—he has actively called on the government to regulate AI and even proposed the establishment of a new federal regulatory agency when testifying before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee in 2023.</p><p>Louisiana Senator John Kennedy looked quite moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should enforce the rules.</p><p>At the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>Between 2022 and 2023, OpenAI successfully lobbied to weaken EU legislation aimed at strengthening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill highly similar to the provisions of Altman's previous congressional testimony was submitted to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and privately issued threats.</p><p>\"Over the course of the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told The New Yorker. Investor Conway lobbied political leaders, including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after passing Congress.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super political action committee called Leading the Future began funding candidates opposed to AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI has officially stated that it will not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major donors is Greg Brockman, who has pledged $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., which supports Trump.</p><p><h2><strong>Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obeying Others and Manipulating Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of people interviewed by The New Yorker, most shared some common psychological picture of Altman. One director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He possesses two traits that almost never appear simultaneously in the same person: first, a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; second, an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>This director is not the only one who spontaneously uses the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, one of Altman's contemporaries in the first cohort of Y Combinator and considered a spiritual legacy in the tech world, expressed his concerns about Altman to several friends in strong terms several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also stated in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become strained. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, distorted, renegotiated, reneged on his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility—though not a large one, it certainly exists—that he will eventually be remembered as a liar on the level of Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried.\"</p><p>In response to these accusations, Altman and his supporters explained that his actions were merely \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics were sci-fi \"doomsday theorists\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He was too caught up in his own beliefs,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"so he did things that made no sense in the real world. But he didn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The trillion-dollar question: Should he dominate it all?</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO, with a potential valuation approaching $1 trillion. Altman is at the helm of one of the fastest-growing startups in human history, raising more than $120 billion in its most recent single round, four times the largest private equity funding round in history.</p><p>For the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Whom should it help and whom should it refuse to serve? On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem isn't just that Altman is a morally flawed person—anyone who has run a large company knows that, in itself, it's not surprising.</p><p>The problem is that OpenAI's raison d'être has always been built on one premise—it is different from other companies.<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they possess a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever initially believed in this mission, and it was precisely because of this belief that he refused.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>His annual salary is tens of millions of dollars.</p><p>In an interview, a reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity.\"</p><p>This should be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" After a moment, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared from OpenAI's latest IRS filing.<strong>The old recruitment slogan, \"You will save the world,\" has been replaced by a new internal company slogan: \"Experience AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that kind of magic is what people love most.\" This is perhaps the best way to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unveiling another side of Altman: lies, intrigue, and trillion-dollar bets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnveiling another side of Altman: lies, intrigue, and trillion-dollar bets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>When a company that has mastered the technology to reshape civilization reaches a trillion-dollar valuation, the market cares about growth and computing power, but the core issue surrounding Sam Altman is only one: trust. A survey spanning hundreds of interviews raises questions—<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting to the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by The New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside.<strong>Instead, it came from his closest colleagues and directors.</strong>。 The first charge in an internal memo is \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different people, and this person is leading the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm in 2023, in which he was dismissed and quickly reinstated, did not clarify the issues, but instead deepened the question: When capital, employees and technological forces collectively take sides, has a CEO transcended any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital, and sensitive national infrastructure sectors.<strong>However, the company's internal security commitments have been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from its core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real-world interests.</strong></p><p>The problem thus escalates—it's not just personal integrity, but structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">act</a>The key to this is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is questionable. Does humanity still have the \"right to put the brakes\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty lies in the fact that when the boundaries between reality and narrative begin to blur,<strong>What we are facing is a world-changing genius, or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\" - A secret memo from a former colleague</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed a compilation of approximately 70 pages of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing messages. This batch of materials includes Slack chat logs, human resources files, and explanatory text, some of which were saved by taking photos with a mobile phone, clearly to circumvent monitoring by company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos specifically addressed to Altman began with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam Continues to Show...\", and the first one is: \"Lying.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever accumulated these concerns with his own thought process. He was once a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in OpenAI's office in 2019.</p><p>But as he became increasingly convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal—to create AI that could rival or even surpass human cognition—his doubts about Altman grew. He said to another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they viewed them as confirmation that the two women had each formed a similar judgment. \"He has been given the future of humanity,\" a director with knowledge of the matter told The New Yorker, \"but he is not to be trusted.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman did not appear out of nowhere. His career model was formed long before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford University, he joined Y Combinator (YC), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on phone location, reflecting a long-standing trait of his: interpreting vague rules as rules that benefit him.</p><p>During the Loopt era, some employees were already confused by his exaggerations. A former employee recalled that Altman boasted that he was a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a senior employee who was once assigned by investors to serve as Altman's \"guardian,\" later described this habit as follows:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think I might be able to blur the line between 'and' I've done it. '</strong>In its most extreme form, it could lead to scams like Theranos (a notorious scam in Silicon Valley).</p><p>In 2014, Graham promoted Altman to chairman of the YC before retiring. However, by 2018, several YC partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior. According to several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman, which essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham privately told his YC colleagues that \"Sam had been lying to us all along before Altman was asked to leave.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by YC and that his departure was entirely of his own free will. Graham's public statements were relatively vague, telling The New Yorker, \"We have no legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is exert moral pressure.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Apocalyptic Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, laying the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a technology optimist, but his AI discourse quickly shifted to a doomsday tone. He has repeatedly warned in private and public that AI technology should not be dominated by large, profit-seeking companies. \"If this is eventually going to happen,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be best if someone outside of Google did it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established and registered as a non-profit organization.<strong>The board has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the very existence of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claim that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history, thus requiring an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is highly compelling: it successfully brings together what was originally scattered across<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Top researchers in academia are recruited by a new organization lacking funds.</p><p>According to Sutskever, the recruitment slogan at the time was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, internal contradictions were brewing from the very beginning. According to more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who later founded Anthropic)—these documents were never publicly disclosed—Altman gave different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During negotiations for a $1 billion investment, Amodei made upholding the \"merger and assist\" clause in its articles of association (OpenAI would assist rather than compete if another company was the first to safely develop AGI) its primary bottom line in negotiations, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>However, just as the deal was about to be signed, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the right to block any merger with OpenAI. He immediately questioned Altman, who initially denied the clause existed. Amodei had to read the contract text word for word and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"What he said was almost certainly a lie.\"</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, when the board read out a statement via video call informing Altman that he was no longer an OpenAI employee, he was in Las Vegas watching F1 racing.</p><p>The news shocked the entire tech world. Microsoft was only informed of the layoffs minutes before they occurred—catching the strategic partner, which had already invested more than $13 billion in OpenAI, off guard. \"I was shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone investigation to try to figure out what mistake Altman had made. \"I have no idea what happened to his mother,\" Hoffman told The New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government-in-exile\" consisting of Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway, and crisis communications professional Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks for more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he worked with Microsoft CEO Nadella to coordinate the stance and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati: his allies were \"going all out\" and \"digging up negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who had opposed him, including her. (Altman says he doesn't remember having such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter demanding Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter as well.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new directors (former Harvard University President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>Chief Technology Officer Bret Taylor was selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Could you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, and Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then let Bret take charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. He was reinstated in less than five days.</p><p><strong>Employees call this history \"the Blip,\" borrowing a plot from a Marvel movie: a character disappears and then reappears, unharmed, while the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>That investigation report that was never published</strong></h2>The dismissed directors made independent investigations one of the conditions of their departure. OpenAI hired Wilmer Hale, the law firm that led internal investigations into Enron and WorldCom, to handle this \"review.\" But the whole process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not contact several key parties; Some of the interviewed employees were hesitant to speak frankly due to concerns about insufficient anonymity. \"They only focus on the narrow window of time during the board controversy, not his long history of integrity,\" said one employee interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative report. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging a \"breach of trust\".</p><p>According to sources, the reason there was no written report was because it was not written at all, and the investigation findings were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of oral briefings. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" said a person close to the investigation, \"but it confirmed that he could continue as CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by this private practice. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From Non-profit Commitment of \"Human Security First\" to Profitability and Recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial design was to use a non-profit structure to curb commercial impulses.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the company's success or even survival\". But internal records show that this commitment has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several features of GPT-4 had been approved by the security review committee. Toner's request to review the documents revealed that none of the most controversial features—allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant—had been approved.</p><p>In addition, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping necessary security reviews, which Altman never mentioned in several lengthy briefings with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team,\" the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four eyewitnesses, the actual computing power allocated was between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power was actually used in the oldest clusters with the worst chips.\"</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to bring it up again because \"this promise was never realistic.\"</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left the company.<strong>Leike wrote on social media, \"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products.\" OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has disappeared from the company's description of its \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS filing.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion-dollar bet: Betting on the future of AI with authoritarian regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious business bet is also the one that the outside world is most worried about—<strong>This involves extending AI infrastructure development to authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately referred to him as a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced he would join the advisory board of the Saudi-led future cities project Neom, before withdrawing after strong opposition from his colleagues.</p><p>But according to a policy advisor, Altman immediately began asking if he could somehow circumvent moral pressure to continue obtaining funding from Saudi Arabia. \"The question wasn't, 'Is this a bad thing?' It was, 'What will be the consequences if we do this? Are there export control issues? Are there sanctions? Can I avoid being detected?'\"</p><p>At the same time, he turned his attention to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the younger brother of the UAE president and director of national intelligence, controls approximately $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth and also runs the state-owned AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him a \"dear friend\" on social media, and was invited to board his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing a plan known as \"ChipCo\": funded by Gulf states.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"My understanding is that the board had no knowledge of the whole thing at the time,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and a Commerce Department official clearly informed Altman: \"We do not intend to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the situation changed completely. In his first week in office, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the Stargate project—a $500 billion joint venture aimed at building a massive AI infrastructure network within the United States.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's AI technology export restrictions were lifted, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-backed AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center park in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals, and through these portals we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another portal in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From \"Welcome Regulation\" to Tough Counterattack to Security Bill</h2>In shaping his public image, Altman has long played the role of an outlier among tech giants—he has actively called on the government to regulate AI and even proposed the establishment of a new federal regulatory agency when testifying before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee in 2023.</p><p>Louisiana Senator John Kennedy looked quite moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should enforce the rules.</p><p>At the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>Between 2022 and 2023, OpenAI successfully lobbied to weaken EU legislation aimed at strengthening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill highly similar to the provisions of Altman's previous congressional testimony was submitted to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and privately issued threats.</p><p>\"Over the course of the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told The New Yorker. Investor Conway lobbied political leaders, including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after passing Congress.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super political action committee called Leading the Future began funding candidates opposed to AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI has officially stated that it will not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major donors is Greg Brockman, who has pledged $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., which supports Trump.</p><p><h2><strong>Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obeying Others and Manipulating Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of people interviewed by The New Yorker, most shared some common psychological picture of Altman. One director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He possesses two traits that almost never appear simultaneously in the same person: first, a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; second, an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>This director is not the only one who spontaneously uses the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, one of Altman's contemporaries in the first cohort of Y Combinator and considered a spiritual legacy in the tech world, expressed his concerns about Altman to several friends in strong terms several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also stated in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become strained. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, distorted, renegotiated, reneged on his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility—though not a large one, it certainly exists—that he will eventually be remembered as a liar on the level of Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried.\"</p><p>In response to these accusations, Altman and his supporters explained that his actions were merely \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics were sci-fi \"doomsday theorists\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He was too caught up in his own beliefs,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"so he did things that made no sense in the real world. But he didn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The trillion-dollar question: Should he dominate it all?</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO, with a potential valuation approaching $1 trillion. Altman is at the helm of one of the fastest-growing startups in human history, raising more than $120 billion in its most recent single round, four times the largest private equity funding round in history.</p><p>For the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Whom should it help and whom should it refuse to serve? On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem isn't just that Altman is a morally flawed person—anyone who has run a large company knows that, in itself, it's not surprising.</p><p>The problem is that OpenAI's raison d'être has always been built on one premise—it is different from other companies.<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they possess a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever initially believed in this mission, and it was precisely because of this belief that he refused.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>His annual salary is tens of millions of dollars.</p><p>In an interview, a reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity.\"</p><p>This should be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" After a moment, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared from OpenAI's latest IRS filing.<strong>The old recruitment slogan, \"You will save the world,\" has been replaced by a new internal company slogan: \"Experience AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that kind of magic is what people love most.\" This is perhaps the best way to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625993708","content_text":"当一家掌握重塑文明技术的公司冲向万亿估值时，市场关心增长与算力，但围绕Sam Altman的核心问题却只有一个：信任。一份横跨数百人访谈的调查提出质疑——这位AI时代的关键人物，是否值得托付未来？\n据《纽约客》4月6日发表的深度报道，对Altman的质疑并非来自外部，而是出自他最亲近的同事与董事。一份内部备忘录的第一条指控就是“撒谎”。在他们眼中，Altman习惯对不同对象讲述不同版本的现实，而这个人，正主导AI的走向。\n2023年被解雇又迅速复职的五天权力风暴，没有澄清问题，反而加深疑问：当资本、员工与技术力量集体站队，一位CEO是否已经超越了任何实质性约束？\n与此同时，OpenAI正深入军方、中东资本与敏感国家基础设施领域，而公司内部安全承诺却被削弱，“安全”甚至从核心业务中消失。理想主义外壳，正在被现实利益重塑。\n问题因此升级——这不只是个人诚信，而是结构性风险：当AGI的钥匙集中在少数人手中，而其可信度存疑，人类是否还拥有“刹车权”？\nAltman曾说，AI需要一点“虚构”的魔力。但真正的不确定在于：当现实与叙事边界开始模糊，我们面对的，究竟是一个改变世界的天才，还是一场无法验证的宏大故事。\n\"谎言\"——前同事的秘密备忘录\n2023年秋，OpenAI首席科学家Ilya Sutskever以消失消息的形式，向另外三位董事秘密传递了约70页的内部文件汇编。这批材料包括Slack聊天记录、人力资源文件及说明性文字，部分内容以手机拍照方式留存，显然是为了规避公司设备的监控。\n这批内部文件此前从未被完整披露。其中一份专门针对Altman的备忘录以一份清单开篇，标题为\"Sam持续展现出……\"，第一条即是：\"撒谎。\"\nSutskever积累这些担忧有其思想脉络。他曾是Altman的朋友，2019年甚至在OpenAI办公室主持了联合创始人Greg Brockman的婚礼。\n但随着他愈发相信公司正在逼近其终极目标——创造出能够与人类认知能力相媲美乃至超越人类的AI——他对Altman的疑虑与日俱增。他当时对另一位董事说：\n\n\"我不认为Sam是那个应该握住按钮的人。\"\n\nAI政策专家Helen Toner与企业家Tasha McCauley收到这批文件时，视之为印证：这两位女性已经各自形成了类似判断。\"他被赋予了人类的未来，\"一位知情董事对《纽约客》说，\"但他不值得信任。\"\n从Y Combinator到OpenAI：一个争议性崛起\nAltman并非横空出世。他的职业模式在远早于OpenAI之前便已形成。\n他在斯坦福大学读了一年半后，加入了著名程序员Paul Graham创办的创业孵化器Y Combinator（Y.C.）。\n他的第一家公司Loopt是一款基于手机位置的原始社交网络，折射出他的一个长期特质：将模糊的规则解读为对自己有利的规则。\nLoopt时期，已有员工对他的夸大其词感到困惑。一名前员工回忆，Altman曾大肆吹嘘自己是乒乓球冠军，\"密苏里州高中乒乓球冠军之类的\"，但实际上是公司里打得最差的人之一。\n一位曾被投资者安排担任Altman\"监护人\"的资深员工Mark Jacobstein后来将这种习惯描述为：\n\n\"'我认为我也许能做到'和'我已经做到了'之间的界限模糊，在最极端的形式下，就会走向Theranos那样的骗局（硅谷著名骗局）。\"\n\n2014年，Graham退休前将Altman擢升为Y.C.主席。然而到2018年，多位Y.C.合伙人已对Altman的行为深感不满，据多位当时在场人士的陈述，Graham夫妇曾与Altman进行了一次坦率谈话，实质上是迫使他离开。\nGraham曾私下对Y.C.同事表示，在Altman被要求离开之前，\"Sam一直在欺骗我们。\"\nAltman本人坚持声称自己从未被Y.C.解雇，且离开完全出于本人意愿。Graham的公开表述则相对模糊，他告诉《纽约客》：\"我们没有法律权力解雇任何人。我们所能做的只是施加道义压力。\"\nOpenAI的创立：用末日叙事募集理想主义\n2015年，Altman向Elon Musk发出了一封电子邮件，由此奠定了OpenAI的创立基础。\n此前，Altman一贯是科技乐观主义者，但他的AI话语迅速转向了末日论调。他在私下和公开场合反复警告：AI技术不应由追求利润的大公司主导。\"如果这件事终究要发生，\"他写信给Musk，\"最好由Google之外的人来做。\"\nOpenAI由此成立，被注册为非营利组织，董事会负有将人类安全置于公司利益之上的法定职责，甚至高于公司生存本身。\n创始人公开声称，AI可能是人类历史上最危险的发明，因此需要一种非同寻常的公司治理结构。这一叙事极具感召力：它成功地将原本分散在谷歌、学术界的顶尖研究人员招募到一家资金匮乏的新组织。\n据Sutskever回忆，当时的招募口号是：\"你将拯救世界。\"\n然而，内部矛盾从一开始便暗流涌动。根据Dario Amodei（此后创立Anthropic）积累的超过200页私人笔记——这批文件从未公开披露——Altman在早期便流露出不同信号。\n在2019年与微软谈判10亿美元投资期间，Amodei将维护公司章程中\"合并与协助\"条款（如果另一家公司率先安全开发出AGI，OpenAI将协助而非竞争）列为首要谈判底线，并得到Altman的口头承诺。\n但交易临近签署时，Amodei发现合同中已悄然加入一项赋予微软阻止OpenAI任何合并行为的条款。他当场质问Altman，后者起初否认该条款存在，Amodei不得不逐字朗读合同文本，并让另一名同事当面确认。\nAmodei后来在笔记中写道：\"他的话几乎肯定是谎言\"。\n\"政变\"与复辟：五天内的权力戏剧\n2023年11月的那个周末，当董事会通过视频电话宣读声明、告知Altman他已不再是OpenAI员工时，他正身处拉斯维加斯观看F1赛车。\n消息震动了整个科技界。微软在解雇发生前数分钟才被告知——这家已向OpenAI投入逾130亿美元的战略伙伴措手不及。\"我非常震惊，\"微软CEO Satya Nadella后来表示。\nLinkedIn联合创始人、OpenAI投资人Reid Hoffman随即展开电话调查，试图弄清Altman究竟犯了什么错。\"我根本不知道他妈发生了什么，\"Hoffman告诉《纽约客》，\"我们在找挪用公款的证据，或者性骚扰，但什么都没找到。\"\nAltman返回旧金山自己的2700万美元豪宅，迅速组建起一个非正式\"流亡政府\"，成员包括Airbnb联合创始人Brian Chesky、投资人Ron Conway及危机公关人士Chris Lehane。他的电话记录显示，他每天通话时间超过12小时。\n与此同时，他协同微软CEO Nadella协调口径，并向代理CEO Mira Murati传递了一个明确信号：他的盟友们\"正在全力出击\"，并正在\"发掘负面信息\"以损害包括她在内的那些曾反对他的人的名誉。（Altman表示不记得有过这样的对话。）\n在强大的外部压力下，多数员工联署了要求Altman复职的公开信，Sutskever最终也在信上签字。\n董事会被迫妥协，Helen Toner和Tasha McCauley失去了席位，而新加入的两位董事（前哈佛大学校长Lawrence Summers和前Facebook首席技术官Bret Taylor）均是在与Altman深度沟通后才被选定的。\n\"你能不能这样做：把Bret、Larry Summers、Adam作为董事会，让我担任CEO，然后由Bret负责调查？\"Altman如此发短信给Nadella。不到五天，他便复职了。\n员工们将这段历史称为\"the Blip\"（短暂消失），借用漫威电影中的情节：人物消失后重现，本人毫发无损，而世界已然天翻地覆。\n那份从未落纸的调查报告\n被解雇的董事们将接受独立调查作为离职条件之一。OpenAI聘请了曾主导安然、世通内部调查的律所WilmerHale负责这项\"审查\"。但据六名接近调查的知情人士称，整个过程似乎被刻意设计为限制透明度。\n调查人员起初未与多位关键当事人接触；部分受访员工因担忧匿名性不足而不敢坦诚发言。\"他们只关注董事会风波期间的狭窄时间窗口，而非他长期以来的诚信历史，\"一名受访员工说。\n2024年3月，OpenAI宣布Altman获得清白，但没有发布任何调查报告。公司官网仅挂出约800字的声明，承认存在\"信任破裂\"。\n据知情人士透露，之所以没有书面报告，是因为根本没有写，调查结论仅以口头简报的形式向Summers和Taylor呈报。\"审查得出的结论并不是Sam诚实，\"一名接近调查的人士说，\"但它确定他可以继续担任CEO。\"\n数位曾在场的前员工和现任员工对这种不公开的做法感到震惊。Altman复职后不久便重新加入了董事会。\n从“人类安全优先”的非营利承诺到营利化再资本化\nOpenAI最初的设定，是用非营利结构约束商业冲动，董事会对“人类安全优先于公司成功甚至生存”负有义务。但内部记录显示，这一承诺一直在被侵蚀。\n2022年12月的一次董事会会议上，Altman向成员们保证，GPT-4的若干功能已通过安全审查委员会批准。Toner要求查阅文件后发现，最具争议的功能——允许用户\"微调\"模型和将其部署为个人助理——均未获批准。\n此外，她还得知微软在印度提前发布了ChatGPT的早期版本，跳过了必要的安全审查，而Altman在与董事会的多次长时间汇报中从未提及此事。\n当安全研究员Jan Leike被任命领导\"超级对齐团队\"时，官方声明承诺该团队将获得公司算力的\"20%\"。但据四名亲历者陈述，实际分配的算力在1%至2%之间，且\"大部分超级对齐算力实际上用的是最老旧、芯片最差的集群\"。\nLeike向Murati投诉，后者告诉他不要再提这件事，因为\"这个承诺从来就不现实\"。\n2024年，Sutskever和Leike相继离职。Leike在社交媒体上写道：\"安全文化和流程已经让位于闪亮的产品。\"OpenAI此后陆续解散了超级对齐团队，在最新的美国国税局申报表中，\"安全\"一词也从公司\"最重要业务活动\"的描述中消失。\n万亿赌局：向专制政权押注AI未来\nAltman在商业上最雄心勃勃的赌注，也是外界最感忧虑的——是将AI基础设施建设向中东专制政权延伸。\n早在2016年，他便结识了沙特王储Mohammed bin Salman，并私下称其为\"朋友\"。2018年，记者Jamal Khashoggi被杀一周后，Altman宣布加入沙特主导的未来城市项目Neom顾问委员会，随后在同事强烈反对下才退出。\n但据一名政策顾问回忆，Altman随即开始询问是否能以某种方式绕开道义压力继续从沙特获得资金，\"问题不是'这是否是坏事'，而是'如果我们这么做，会有什么后果？有出口管制问题吗？会有制裁吗？我能不能不被发现？'\"\n与此并行，他将目光转向阿联酋。阿联酋总统之弟、国家情报总监Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan掌控着约1.5万亿美元的主权财富，他同时运营着国家控股AI集团G42。\nAltman与其建立了深度私人关系，在社交媒体上称之为\"亲爱的挚友\"，并曾于2024年受邀登上其价值2.5亿美元的超级游艇\"Maryah\"号。\n2023年，Altman开始秘密推动一项被称为\"ChipCo\"的计划：由海湾国家出资数百亿美元，在中东建设大规模芯片代工厂和数据中心。\"据我的理解，整件事发生时董事会毫不知情，\"一位知情董事说。\n美国拜登政府对此深感警惕，商务部官员明确告知Altman：\"我们不打算在阿联酋建造先进芯片。\"\n然而，随着特朗普重返白宫，局面彻底改变。就职第一周，Altman便站在白宫罗斯福厅宣布\"星际之门\"（Stargate）计划——一项旨在在美国境内构建庞大AI基础设施网络、总额达5000亿美元的合资企业。\n随后，拜登政府的AI技术出口限制被废除，Altman陪同特朗普出访沙特王室，而沙特随即宣布成立一家国家支持的大型AI公司。与此同时，OpenAI宣布在阿布扎比建设一个面积相当于中央公园七倍、耗电量堪比迈阿密整座城市的数据中心园区。\n\"我们正在建造门户，通过这些门户我们正在真正地召唤异类，\"一名前OpenAI高管说，\"Sam在中东又增加了一个门户。这是有史以来最不负责任的事情之一。\"\n监管与游说：从“欢迎监管”到对安全法案的强硬反击\n在公众形象的塑造上，Altman曾长期扮演科技巨头中的异类——他主动呼吁政府监管AI，2023年在美国参议院司法委员会作证时甚至提议设立新的联邦监管机构。\n路易斯安那州参议员John Kennedy看起来颇受感动，靠在手上说，也许应该让Altman本人来执行规则。\n但与此同时，据《时代》杂志报道，OpenAI在2022至2023年间成功游说削弱了欧盟一项旨在加强对大型AI公司监管的立法。在加州，当一项与Altman此前国会证词条款高度相近的AI安全法案提交立法机构后，OpenAI公开表示反对，并在私下发出威胁。\n\"在这一年里，我们看到了来自OpenAI的手段越来越狡猾和具有欺骗性的行为，\"一名立法助手对《纽约客》说。投资人Conway游说了包括Nancy Pelosi和Gavin Newsom在内的政界领袖，该法案最终在通过议会后被Newsom否决。\n今年，一个名为\"引领未来\"（Leading the Future）的亲AI超级政治行动委员会开始资助反对AI监管候选人。\nOpenAI官方表示不会向此类组织捐款，但该委员会的主要捐款人之一是Greg Brockman，承诺捐出5000万美元。同年，Brockman夫妇还向支持特朗普的\"MAGA Inc.\"捐赠了2500万美元。\n权力的解剖：顺从他人与操控他人的矛盾统一体\n在《纽约客》采访的数十名当事人中，大多数人分享了对Altman某种共同的心理画像。一名董事说：\n\n\"他不受真相约束。他有两种几乎从不同时出现在同一个人身上的特质：第一是强烈渴望取悦他人、在每一次互动中被人喜欢；第二是几乎带有反社会性质的、对欺骗他人所带来后果的漠然。\"\n\n这位董事不是唯一一个自发使用\"反社会\"一词的人。Altman在Y Combinator第一届学员中的同期者、被视为技术圈精神遗产的Aaron Swartz，在去世前数年曾向多位友人表达了对Altman的担忧，措辞强烈。\n多名微软高级管理人员也在采访中表示，尽管Nadella长期力挺，微软与Altman的关系已变得紧张。其中一人说：\n\n\"他误导、歪曲、重新谈判、食言，我认为他有一定的可能——虽然不大但确实存在——最终被人记住为Bernie Madoff或Sam Bankman-Fried级别的骗子。\"\n\n对于这些指控，Altman及其支持者的解释是，他的行为不过是\"正常的竞争性商业实践\"，而他的批评者则是科幻式\"末日论者\"，或是嫉妒他成功的失败者。\n\"他太沉浸于自我信念，\"前董事成员Sue Yoon说，\"所以他做了一些在现实世界中毫无逻辑的事。但他不活在现实世界里。\"\n一万亿美元的问题：他是否应该主宰这一切\nOpenAI据报道正准备IPO，潜在估值接近1万亿美元。Altman驾驭着人类有史以来增长最快的初创企业之一，其融资规模——最近一轮单轮即超过1200亿美元，为历史最大私募融资规模的四倍。\n在可预见的未来，这家公司的决策将影响数以亿计的人的生活：AI何时应当停止，何时应当继续；它应当帮助谁，拒绝服务谁；在战场上，它是否可以在没有人类监督的情况下自主决策。\n问题不仅在于Altman是一个道德上有瑕疵的人——任何一个运营过大公司的人都知道，这本身不足为奇。\n问题在于：OpenAI的存在理由，自始至终建立在一个前提之上——它与其他公司不同，它的领导者必须具备\"非同寻常的诚信\"，因为他们掌握的是一项可以改变文明的技术。\nSutskever最初对这一使命深信不疑，正是因为这个信念，他拒绝了谷歌的千万美元年薪。\n在一次采访中，记者问Altman，运营一家AI公司是否要求\"更高的诚信标准\"。\n这本应是一个容易回答的问题。他迟疑了，然后说，\"我认为很多行业都可能对社会产生巨大影响，无论好坏。\"片刻后，他补充道：\"是的，这需要更高的诚信，我每天都感受到这份责任的重量。\"\n然而，OpenAI最新的IRS申报表中，\"安全\"作为公司核心业务的描述已经消失。曾经的招募口号：\"你将拯救世界\"，已被公司内部的新口号所取代：\"感受AGI。\"\n正如Altman曾以近乎哲学的口吻向媒体说的那样，他允许旗下AI模型保留一定程度的\"虚构\"能力，而非追求百分之百的准确性，因为\"那种魔力，是人们最喜欢的东西\"。这也许，是理解他本人的最好注脚。▪","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.82,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":551087593541840,"gmtCreate":1775564165799,"gmtModify":1775566974677,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"MsSamKierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mark&nbsp;","listText":"Mark&nbsp;","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/551087593541840","repostId":"2625302879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625302879","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775563968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625302879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-07 20:12","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"The IEA warns that the intensity of the Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is entering a \"Black April\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625302879","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol指出，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一受到严重破坏，修复要很长时间。若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损原油与成品油损失将达三月份两倍。","content":"<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his most stark warning to date: the intensity of this Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multi-dimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He stated that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Channel</a>With the shutdown continuing throughout April, global losses of crude oil and refined products will double that of March – \"we are entering a 'Black April'.\"</p><p>The destructive power of this crisis is unprecedented because its scope extends far beyond the oil sector, impacting natural gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and the global trading system. Birol made it clear that the root of this crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which has made him deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently monitoring oil fields, refineries, and energy terminals in the Gulf region in real time.</p><p>Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, with more than a third severely damaged. Repair work will cost [amount missing].<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>The US dollar will cause long-term disruptions to some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and exacerbating transportation pressure in the critical Strait of Hormuz.</p><p>The speed of recovery varied significantly among the affected countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia, with its strong engineering capabilities and ample financial resources, is expected to recover relatively quickly; The situation in Iraq is far more dire. Approximately 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods, and the country has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenues, approaching the threshold of economic paralysis. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to regain that status.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports completely halted</strong></h2>In terms of yield loss, Birol's description is alarming. He stated that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of pre-war levels; In terms of natural gas, exports have completely stopped.</p><p>In terms of time, the situation is deteriorating rapidly. \"March was already tough, but April will be even worse,\" Birol said. \"If the strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as in March.\"</p><p>He used the seasons as a metaphor: \"April in the Northern Hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But right now, it might feel like the beginning of winter.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the most affected groups, Birol focuses on developing countries.</p><p>He stated that the combination of high oil, gas, and food prices accelerating inflation will deal a heavy blow to the economic growth of these countries. \"I am concerned that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>Regarding specific countries at higher risk of exposure, Birol named oil-import-dependent economies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries lies in their limited fiscal room for maneuver, making it difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: Geopolitically driven, the path to recovery is fraught with uncertainty.</strong></h2>In the interview, Birol repeatedly emphasized that this crisis is fundamentally different from previous energy supply shocks in history—it does not stem from an imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market itself, but rather from the direct destruction of physical infrastructure by geopolitical conflicts.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and recovery path are highly dependent on the direction of the political situation, making it difficult for market pricing mechanisms to function effectively.</p><p>The simultaneous impact on multiple product categories—oil and gas, grain, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and commercial shipping all suffered simultaneously—has also presented global supply chains with the most complex stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has consistently conveyed pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this wording is the most cautionary of them all.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe IEA warns that the intensity of the Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is entering a \"Black April\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his most stark warning to date: the intensity of this Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multi-dimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He stated that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Channel</a>With the shutdown continuing throughout April, global losses of crude oil and refined products will double that of March – \"we are entering a 'Black April'.\"</p><p>The destructive power of this crisis is unprecedented because its scope extends far beyond the oil sector, impacting natural gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and the global trading system. Birol made it clear that the root of this crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which has made him deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently monitoring oil fields, refineries, and energy terminals in the Gulf region in real time.</p><p>Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, with more than a third severely damaged. Repair work will cost [amount missing].<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">Tens of billions</a>The US dollar will cause long-term disruptions to some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and exacerbating transportation pressure in the critical Strait of Hormuz.</p><p>The speed of recovery varied significantly among the affected countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia, with its strong engineering capabilities and ample financial resources, is expected to recover relatively quickly; The situation in Iraq is far more dire. Approximately 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods, and the country has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenues, approaching the threshold of economic paralysis. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to regain that status.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports completely halted</strong></h2>In terms of yield loss, Birol's description is alarming. He stated that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of pre-war levels; In terms of natural gas, exports have completely stopped.</p><p>In terms of time, the situation is deteriorating rapidly. \"March was already tough, but April will be even worse,\" Birol said. \"If the strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as in March.\"</p><p>He used the seasons as a metaphor: \"April in the Northern Hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But right now, it might feel like the beginning of winter.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the most affected groups, Birol focuses on developing countries.</p><p>He stated that the combination of high oil, gas, and food prices accelerating inflation will deal a heavy blow to the economic growth of these countries. \"I am concerned that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>Regarding specific countries at higher risk of exposure, Birol named oil-import-dependent economies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries lies in their limited fiscal room for maneuver, making it difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: Geopolitically driven, the path to recovery is fraught with uncertainty.</strong></h2>In the interview, Birol repeatedly emphasized that this crisis is fundamentally different from previous energy supply shocks in history—it does not stem from an imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market itself, but rather from the direct destruction of physical infrastructure by geopolitical conflicts.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and recovery path are highly dependent on the direction of the political situation, making it difficult for market pricing mechanisms to function effectively.</p><p>The simultaneous impact on multiple product categories—oil and gas, grain, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and commercial shipping all suffered simultaneously—has also presented global supply chains with the most complex stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has consistently conveyed pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this wording is the most cautionary of them all.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.","REET":"iShares Trust iShares Global REIT ETF","BK4129":"建筑与工程"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769406","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625302879","content_text":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol发出迄今最严厉警告：此次海湾能源冲击的烈度超过1973年、1979年与2022年危机的总和，全球经济正濒临一场多维度的供应崩溃。\nBirol周二接受法国《费加罗报》采访时披露，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中约三分之一受到严重破坏。\n他表示，若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损失的原油与成品油数量将达三月份的两倍——\"我们正在进入一个'黑色四月'\"。\n此次危机的破坏力之所以前所未有，在于其波及范围已远超单纯的石油领域，同时冲击天然气、粮食、化肥、石化产品、氦气及全球贸易体系。Birol明确表示，这场危机的根源不在于能源本身，而在于地缘政治，这也令其对前景深感悲观。\n75处能源设施受损，修复之路漫长\nIEA目前正对海湾地区的油田、炼油厂与能源终端实施实时监控。\n75处设施已遭袭击并受损，逾三分之一损毁严重，修缮工程耗资将达数百亿美元，且将造成部分能源流的长期中断，进一步收紧全球供应，并加剧霍尔木兹海峡这一关键咽喉要道的运输压力。\n在各受损国中，恢复速度分化显著。\nBirol指出，沙特阿拉伯凭借强大的工程能力与充裕的财政资源，有望相对较快恢复；而伊拉克的处境则远为严峻，约1500万人依赖油气收入为生，该国已损失约三分之二的石油收入，正逼近经济瘫痪的临界点。他说：\n\n\"中东此前一直是全球可靠的能源枢纽，要恢复到这一地位，将需要很长时间。\"\n\n产量腰斩，天然气出口全面停摆\n在产量损失方面，Birol的描述触目惊心。他表示，相关国家目前的石油产量仅略超战前水平的一半；天然气方面，出口已完全停止。\n在时间维度上，形势正加速恶化。\"三月份已经很艰难，但四月将更糟，\"Birol说，\"如果海峡整个四月持续关闭，我们损失的原油和成品油将是三月份的两倍。\"\n他以季节作喻：\"北半球的四月通常意味着春天的到来，但现在，它可能感觉像是冬天的开始。\"\n发展中国家首当其冲，亚非经济体面临债务危机\n在受冲击最严重的群体中，Birol将发展中国家列为重点。\n他表示，高油价、高气价与高粮食价格叠加加速通胀，将对这些国家的经济增长造成沉重打击。\"我担心许多发展中国家的外债将大幅攀升，\"他说。\n就具体暴露风险较高的国家而言，Birol点名亚洲的石油进口依赖型经济体，包括韩国、日本，以及印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，同时指出非洲国家也将受到严重波及。\n上述国家共同的脆弱性在于财政腾挪空间有限，难以抵御持续的外部能源价格冲击。\n危机性质：地缘政治驱动，修复路径充满不确定性\nBirol在采访中反复强调，此次危机与历史上历次能源供应冲击存在本质差异——它并非源于能源市场自身的供需失衡，而是地缘政治冲突直接摧毁物理基础设施的结果。\n这一属性决定了其持续时间和修复路径高度依赖政治局势走向，市场定价机制难以有效发挥作用。\n此次多品类同步受冲击的格局——油气、粮食、化肥、石化、氦气与贸易航运同步受损——亦令全球供应链面临有史以来最复杂的压力测试。\nBirol数周来已在多场公开采访中持续传递悲观预期，此次措辞为其中最为警示性的一次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1.5,"REET":1.5,"IEA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":550282748190936,"gmtCreate":1775372040774,"gmtModify":1775373506229,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"MsSamKierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/550282748190936","repostId":"2625964592","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625964592","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775373347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625964592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-05 15:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"AI computing power is a fatal flaw! Broadcom's director named \"three major bottlenecks,\" suggesting the capacity shortage may persist until 2027.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625964592","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives have named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers, and PCBs. Due to technological barriers and capacity constraints, the delivery cycle of small PCBs has skyrocketed to six months, while the laser yield is less than 30%. Even though TSMC is currently expanding its production on a large scale, the computing power shortage will become the norm because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months and the production capacity for 2026 has already been locked in by major manufacturers. New orders will have to wait until 2027.</p><p>Supply-side constraints on artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from front-end chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives have named three major bottlenecks in the AI supply chain, revealing that the real obstacles in this computing power arms race are far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and are difficult to resolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, Director of Product Marketing at the physical layer, pointed out at a media briefing in Taipei on March 24 that the AI-related supply chain currently faces three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser production capacity, wafers (specifically<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced manufacturing processes), and PCBs (Paddle Cards).</strong>The delivery cycle for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers has surged from about six weeks to about six months, and is not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement for the market is that the investment boom in AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield rate of less than 30% under rigorous laser testing, to the sluggish unit output in the early stages of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the PCB supplier switching certification cycle of more than six months—the combination of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is very likely to continue in a structural manner, and supply chain price increases may become the norm.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed in the March earnings call that Broadcom has secured the supply of key components for 2026 to 2028, covering advanced process wafers, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This forward-looking plan itself is a direct reflection of the current level of supply shortages.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB delivery cycle increased tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T advanced optical transceiver module, the PCB is used to connect external cables to internal cables.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces of components. Due to their extremely small space and the need to process extremely high-frequency signals, these small PCBs usually use the mSAP (Modified Semi-Additive Process) process, which has a much higher technical threshold than ordinary PCBs. They are mainly supplied by manufacturers with advanced HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root cause of PCB becoming a bottleneck lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is some overlap between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required for AI servers. When the world rushed to buy HBM production capacity, the production capacity of small PCBs was squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely stringent requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must use ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which is not something that ordinary PCB manufacturers can undertake.</p><p>More importantly, once the supplier is changed, the certification period can last for more than six months. That's exactly<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>The reasons why hyperscale cloud vendors prefer to sign long-term contracts of three to four years rather than lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Lasers: Yield less than 30%, indium phosphide production capacity a key bottleneck</h2>Laser elements have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) era. To support 1.6T or higher bandwidth, lasers must maintain wavelength stability in the high-temperature environment of data centers, which places stringent demands on \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if a supplier is able to produce laser dies, the yield rate that meets the high CPO standards may be less than 30% after rigorous reliability testing.</strong></p><p>The constraints on production capacity are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are very few manufacturers in the world with the capability to mass-produce 6-inch InP. If upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are fully booked, no matter how many downstream packaging manufacturers there are, there will be no laser dies available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In traditional optical modules, one module is configured with one laser; In CPO solutions, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry has turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Source Module) architecture, which has resulted in a no longer linear relationship between the demand for laser dies and the number of switches, but has increased exponentially, directly impacting the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Lane</h2>Regarding wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly stated that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\" and expects TSMC's advanced process production lines to reach a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue expanding production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super traffic jam\" occurs in the back-end advanced packaging process.</strong>Entering the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact Universal Photonic Engine) technology, which uses Hybrid Bonding to three-dimensionally stack optical chips and silicon chips. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and has an extremely long testing cycle, making it difficult to rapidly improve the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape has further exacerbated production capacity pressure. In 2026, Broadcom's production capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those currently investing heavily in self-developed ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the most advanced AI computing chips and the highest-end 1.6T network switches simultaneously flood into the same TSMC production line, production capacity has essentially entered a \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, factory construction, cleanroom completion, and the introduction of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The delivery cycle of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end testing equipment often takes twelve to eighteen months.<strong>This means that the production capacity for 2026 has actually been locked in by major manufacturers between 2024 and 2025—customers who are only placing additional orders now will have to wait until the new production capacity is released in 2027.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Spillover across the entire supply chain: Second-tier suppliers lag behind in expanding production, and bottlenecks spread.</h2>Production capacity pressure is spilling over into the entire supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging manufacturers; the steps that truly create bottlenecks include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrates, Underfill essential for advanced packaging, heat dissipation requirements brought about by AI power consumption explosion, KGD testing and aging testing (Burn-in), CPO and optical modules, as well as cutting and drilling of TSV and interposer layers.</strong></p><p>TSMC Chairman Wei Zhejia once said that \"CoWoS production capacity is still insufficient\"—what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: substrate manufacturers, probe card manufacturers, underfill suppliers, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it cannot force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. Expanding ABF substrate production often takes two to three years, the aging testing time is extremely long, and the alignment tolerance of the fiber array is at the sub-micron level, making it difficult to fully automate—every step slows down the overall pace.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to advance the hardware iteration of its GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than cyclical disruptions. For investors, the bottleneck in production capacity is precisely where pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI computing power is a fatal flaw! Broadcom's director named \"three major bottlenecks,\" suggesting the capacity shortage may persist until 2027.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI computing power is a fatal flaw! Broadcom's director named \"three major bottlenecks,\" suggesting the capacity shortage may persist until 2027.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-05 15:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives have named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers, and PCBs. Due to technological barriers and capacity constraints, the delivery cycle of small PCBs has skyrocketed to six months, while the laser yield is less than 30%. Even though TSMC is currently expanding its production on a large scale, the computing power shortage will become the norm because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months and the production capacity for 2026 has already been locked in by major manufacturers. New orders will have to wait until 2027.</p><p>Supply-side constraints on artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from front-end chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives have named three major bottlenecks in the AI supply chain, revealing that the real obstacles in this computing power arms race are far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and are difficult to resolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, Director of Product Marketing at the physical layer, pointed out at a media briefing in Taipei on March 24 that the AI-related supply chain currently faces three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser production capacity, wafers (specifically<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced manufacturing processes), and PCBs (Paddle Cards).</strong>The delivery cycle for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers has surged from about six weeks to about six months, and is not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement for the market is that the investment boom in AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield rate of less than 30% under rigorous laser testing, to the sluggish unit output in the early stages of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the PCB supplier switching certification cycle of more than six months—the combination of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is very likely to continue in a structural manner, and supply chain price increases may become the norm.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed in the March earnings call that Broadcom has secured the supply of key components for 2026 to 2028, covering advanced process wafers, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This forward-looking plan itself is a direct reflection of the current level of supply shortages.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB delivery cycle increased tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T advanced optical transceiver module, the PCB is used to connect external cables to internal cables.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces of components. Due to their extremely small space and the need to process extremely high-frequency signals, these small PCBs usually use the mSAP (Modified Semi-Additive Process) process, which has a much higher technical threshold than ordinary PCBs. They are mainly supplied by manufacturers with advanced HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root cause of PCB becoming a bottleneck lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is some overlap between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required for AI servers. When the world rushed to buy HBM production capacity, the production capacity of small PCBs was squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely stringent requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must use ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which is not something that ordinary PCB manufacturers can undertake.</p><p>More importantly, once the supplier is changed, the certification period can last for more than six months. That's exactly<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Goal</a>The reasons why hyperscale cloud vendors prefer to sign long-term contracts of three to four years rather than lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Lasers: Yield less than 30%, indium phosphide production capacity a key bottleneck</h2>Laser elements have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) era. To support 1.6T or higher bandwidth, lasers must maintain wavelength stability in the high-temperature environment of data centers, which places stringent demands on \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if a supplier is able to produce laser dies, the yield rate that meets the high CPO standards may be less than 30% after rigorous reliability testing.</strong></p><p>The constraints on production capacity are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are very few manufacturers in the world with the capability to mass-produce 6-inch InP. If upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are fully booked, no matter how many downstream packaging manufacturers there are, there will be no laser dies available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In traditional optical modules, one module is configured with one laser; In CPO solutions, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry has turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Source Module) architecture, which has resulted in a no longer linear relationship between the demand for laser dies and the number of switches, but has increased exponentially, directly impacting the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Lane</h2>Regarding wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly stated that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\" and expects TSMC's advanced process production lines to reach a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue expanding production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super traffic jam\" occurs in the back-end advanced packaging process.</strong>Entering the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact Universal Photonic Engine) technology, which uses Hybrid Bonding to three-dimensionally stack optical chips and silicon chips. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and has an extremely long testing cycle, making it difficult to rapidly improve the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape has further exacerbated production capacity pressure. In 2026, Broadcom's production capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those currently investing heavily in self-developed ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the most advanced AI computing chips and the highest-end 1.6T network switches simultaneously flood into the same TSMC production line, production capacity has essentially entered a \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, factory construction, cleanroom completion, and the introduction of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The delivery cycle of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end testing equipment often takes twelve to eighteen months.<strong>This means that the production capacity for 2026 has actually been locked in by major manufacturers between 2024 and 2025—customers who are only placing additional orders now will have to wait until the new production capacity is released in 2027.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Spillover across the entire supply chain: Second-tier suppliers lag behind in expanding production, and bottlenecks spread.</h2>Production capacity pressure is spilling over into the entire supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging manufacturers; the steps that truly create bottlenecks include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrates, Underfill essential for advanced packaging, heat dissipation requirements brought about by AI power consumption explosion, KGD testing and aging testing (Burn-in), CPO and optical modules, as well as cutting and drilling of TSV and interposer layers.</strong></p><p>TSMC Chairman Wei Zhejia once said that \"CoWoS production capacity is still insufficient\"—what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: substrate manufacturers, probe card manufacturers, underfill suppliers, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it cannot force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. Expanding ABF substrate production often takes two to three years, the aging testing time is extremely long, and the alignment tolerance of the fiber array is at the sub-micron level, making it difficult to fully automate—every step slows down the overall pace.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to advance the hardware iteration of its GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than cyclical disruptions. For investors, the bottleneck in production capacity is precisely where pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"LU2355687059.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL IMPACT  \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU2322448791.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU2322448957.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","TSM":"台积电","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - 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