To The Moon

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August 31 — Last Day of Summer, First Day of Reckoning Three things I'm watching as we close out August and head into what is historically the market's worst month. 1. The Warsh overhang is real Friday's Jackson Hole speech was more hawkish than the market wanted. Warsh said inflation is "too high" and the Fed "has more work to do" — stopping just short of explicitly telegraphing a September hike. With the FOMC meeting on September 16, the probability of a hike has moved from one-in-three to above one-in-two. That repricing isn't fully done. High-multiple tech — NVDA, MRVL, BE — faces continued multiple compression if the long end o 2. The "buy the earnings beat" trade is broken this cycle MRVL beat on revenue and EPS, guided to 50% growth, and fell 10%. A week earlier MU did the same. The

QQQ's -1% wasn't panic — it was positioning. The S&P's -0.28% next to QQQ's -1% tells you this was a tech/semis trim, not a risk-off day. Makes sense given what's stacking up this week: Nvidia reports Wednesday after close, and Fed Chair Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday — two catalysts that rarely land in the same week. The Warsh-Bessent dynamic is the real wildcard. Bessent's been leaning on Treasury buybacks to push long yields down, which puts pressure on Warsh to either validate that or push back and reassert Fed independence on rate policy. Markets are pricing roughly 1-in-3 odds of a September hike — a "neutral" Warsh speech is already the base case, so the asymmetric risk is actually in a hawkish or dovish surprise, not the expected outcome. Add Iran tail risk t

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Micron's $1T "reclaim" is really a rematch of the same argument the market had in May — and the CXMT wildcard cuts both ways Worth remembering the context: Micron first crossed $1T back in May off UBS's 204% price-target hike to $1,625, built on a structural thesis — long-term agreements are turning DRAM from a spot-priced commodity into something closer to contracted, growth-multiple earnings. Tuesday's move (+4.92% MU, +9.01% SK Hynix, +5.76% SanDisk, SOXL +6.89%) is that same thesis getting a fresh catalyst: management extending the tightness call past 2027, UBS following with a through-cycle profitability reset. Here's the part that actually resolves your "who sets the price" question: SemiAnalysis's own supply-side model — the one most often cited to justify CXMT as the bear case — st

JPMorgan's memory call isn't a rotation story — it's a "the correction was wrong" story The framing matters here. This wasn't JPMorgan discovering memory as some new Nvidia-adjacent trade — it's JPMorgan's Jay Kwon calling the recent 25% memory correction a mistake, made on Monday, two trading days before Tuesday's bounce. His thesis has two legs: supply-demand shortage persists for two more years, and — the more interesting part — memory demand is broadening from GPU to CPU in a way he thinks the market has underpriced. That's a different claim than "AI cycle strength is spilling over." It's "the market already knew this conceptually but hasn't modeled the actual volume impact." That's why Tuesday's move (SK Hynix +4.7%, SanDisk +2.68%, Micron +0.87%, SOXL +2.31%) reads as a reset of Q3 e