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- avatar.ngavatar.ng
  ·08-09
  who cares who will consume the fruits, they are the "plantation" or even more upstream business ...
  Microsoft Faces Computing Shortage, Musk Steps In?
  SpaceX is transforming into a hyperscale computing provider at a pace that has surprised the market.Research firm SemiAnalysis highlights in a recent report that SpaceX could add more than 10GW of...
  Microsoft Faces Computing Shortage, Musk Steps In?
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- avatar.ngavatar.ng
  ·07-19
  How can you compare apple with orange, first of all Meta was a awful company, bad reputation and bad to customers, not fulfilling social responsibility also. 2nd is meta can't compete with spacex on the size of its raise funding, spacex could raise trillions, means they are not even in the same league, more over Meta dispite its bad reputation, still able to recover and doing well it its price ... . So I don't know what are you trying to bring up? Or it's just politically wanna make spacex sounds bad? Or it's growth is not good for Jews business ecosystems? it has made a mark on history where no one did before this, so it'll continue to make a miracle and legend where there's no example to quote from!
  Is Spacex's Stock a Bust Because it Fell Below $135? Look What Happened After Meta's IPO.
  Close to half of major IPOs sink below their offering price - and stay there for several years. Here's why SpaceX is no different.SpaceX shares $(SPCX)$ dipped below their $135 initial public...
  Is Spacex's Stock a Bust Because it Fell Below $135? Look What Happened After Meta's IPO.
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Based on $50 billion in capital expenditure per GW, this implies a 2027 capital expenditure range of $300 billion to $500 billion, rivaling the expected investments of AWS and Google—a staggering figure for a company with profitability far below that of mainstream hyperscale cloud providers.<br/><br/>SemiAnalysis notes that it has evaluated all suitable sites for <b>SpaceX</b> and tracked available gas turbine equipment on a quarterly basis, concluding that the targets are realistic. The report also points out that <b>Microsoft</b> has signed over 10GW in data center contracts year-to-date, with total contract value exceeding $300 billion. The potential demand for <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s computing power could be a key variable in boosting <b>Microsoft</b>&#39;s Azure revenue growth from roughly 42% to over 100%.<br/><br/><b>The high profit margins of inference computing are driving a surge in demand.</b><br/><br/>SemiAnalysis&#39;s core argument is based on the high profitability of AI inference. According to its Tokenomics model and inference simulator, when OpenAI and Anthropic offer API inference services on GB300 clusters, each GW can generate over $100 billion in revenue annually. At a conservative lease price of $3 per GPU per hour, the cost per GW per year is about $12 billion, resulting in gross margins exceeding 60% for inference, with some flagship models reaching over 85%.<br/><br/>This economic model also applies to <b>Microsoft</b>. SemiAnalysis points out that the renegotiated OpenAI agreement in April 2026 removed the original 20% revenue-sharing clause, meaning <b>Microsoft</b> can achieve similar per-MW revenue and margins to OpenAI and Anthropic when offering inference services using OpenAI models, without bearing any training costs. The report characterizes this situation as a &#34;once-in-a-century opportunity.&#34;<br/><br/><b><b>Microsoft</b>&#39;s computing shortfall opens a window for <b>SpaceX</b>.</b><br/><br/><b>Microsoft</b> had slowed down data center leasing activities significantly in late 2024, but SemiAnalysis states this trend reversed completely between 2025 and 2026. In October 2025, <b>Microsoft</b> signed a $250 billion infrastructure-as-a-service agreement with OpenAI, which SemiAnalysis estimates corresponds to about 7GW of computing power, leaving <b>Microsoft</b> severely constrained in its Foundry API business and applications like Copilot. To fill this gap, <b>Microsoft</b> has signed over 10GW in binding contracts year-to-date across leasing, self-building, and long-term power purchase agreements. SemiAnalysis believes that a $1.5 trillion contract between <b>Microsoft</b> and <b>SpaceX</b> for 3GW is &#34;not impossible,&#34; citing two reasons: first, <b>Microsoft</b> is already in a massive computing expansion cycle; second, <b>SpaceX</b> offers a 90-day cancellation clause, consistent with its contracts with Anthropic and Google, making it a low financial risk and easy to secure internal approval.<br/><br/><b><b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s construction speed is disrupting industry norms.</b><br/><br/>SemiAnalysis attributes <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s competitive advantage to a systematic disruption of traditional data center construction logic. The report lists several specific examples: Colossus 1&#39;s 300MW facility was completed in 122 days; the Southaven power plant expanded from 27 gas turbines (about 495MW) in February 2026 to 69 turbines (1.7GW) by July 2026; the &#34;MiniHard&#34; project began vertical construction in March 2026 and is expected to reach 450-500MW in about five months.<br/><br/>In addressing supply chain bottlenecks, <b>SpaceX</b> has adopted unconventional strategies: replacing large power transformers with a two-year backlog using Chinese-made power modules; purchasing gas turbines on the secondary market, including those originally destined for an Oracle site in New Mexico; and compressing commissioning cycles through highly parallelized construction and pre-assembly. Colossus 2 peak daily labor was about 3,000 people, significantly lower than the industry standard for a data center of similar size. SemiAnalysis argues that <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s core strength lies in prioritizing &#34;speed over efficiency,&#34; a common industry logic. In an era of extreme computing scarcity and high AI inference margins, a 500MW cluster that can be delivered in three months with a 90-day cancellation clause is one of the most scarce assets in the market. Google&#39;s decision to ultimately sign a contract with <b>SpaceX</b> is a testament to this logic.<br/><br/><b>Financing paths: Nvidia supplier financing and cash flow rollover.</b><br/><br/>Addressing concerns about <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s capital strength, SemiAnalysis proposes two financing paths. First, Nvidia could reduce <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s upfront cash outlay through supplier financing—a key reason why Musk announced exclusive use of Nvidia chips during the earnings call, despite <b>SpaceX</b> having previously evaluated alternatives like TPUs and AMD. Second, thanks to the industry&#39;s fastest delivery cycle, <b>SpaceX</b> can charge a premium of $30 million to $50 million per MW per year, allowing capital expenditure to be recovered through operating cash flow in less than a year. Combining these factors, SemiAnalysis predicts that, assuming only 50% of <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s 2027 incremental computing power is used for commercial inference monetization (with the rest reserved for training Grok and Cursor teams), <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s ARR could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Faces Computing Shortage, Musk Steps In?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Faces Computing Shortage, Musk Steps In?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039043262\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Deep News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-09 15:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>SpaceX</b> is transforming into a hyperscale computing provider at a pace that has surprised the market.<br/><br/>Research firm SemiAnalysis highlights in a recent report that <b>SpaceX</b> could add more than 10GW of computing capacity by the end of 2027, potentially generating up to $300 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), with <b>Microsoft</b> emerging as its largest client.<br/><br/>Previously, during <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s first earnings call, Elon Musk stated a &#34;conservative&#34; target of building and delivering 6-8GW of incremental computing capacity in a single year by 2027, with an upside potential exceeding 10GW. Based on $50 billion in capital expenditure per GW, this implies a 2027 capital expenditure range of $300 billion to $500 billion, rivaling the expected investments of AWS and Google—a staggering figure for a company with profitability far below that of mainstream hyperscale cloud providers.<br/><br/>SemiAnalysis notes that it has evaluated all suitable sites for <b>SpaceX</b> and tracked available gas turbine equipment on a quarterly basis, concluding that the targets are realistic. The report also points out that <b>Microsoft</b> has signed over 10GW in data center contracts year-to-date, with total contract value exceeding $300 billion. The potential demand for <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s computing power could be a key variable in boosting <b>Microsoft</b>&#39;s Azure revenue growth from roughly 42% to over 100%.<br/><br/><b>The high profit margins of inference computing are driving a surge in demand.</b><br/><br/>SemiAnalysis&#39;s core argument is based on the high profitability of AI inference. According to its Tokenomics model and inference simulator, when OpenAI and Anthropic offer API inference services on GB300 clusters, each GW can generate over $100 billion in revenue annually. At a conservative lease price of $3 per GPU per hour, the cost per GW per year is about $12 billion, resulting in gross margins exceeding 60% for inference, with some flagship models reaching over 85%.<br/><br/>This economic model also applies to <b>Microsoft</b>. SemiAnalysis points out that the renegotiated OpenAI agreement in April 2026 removed the original 20% revenue-sharing clause, meaning <b>Microsoft</b> can achieve similar per-MW revenue and margins to OpenAI and Anthropic when offering inference services using OpenAI models, without bearing any training costs. The report characterizes this situation as a &#34;once-in-a-century opportunity.&#34;<br/><br/><b><b>Microsoft</b>&#39;s computing shortfall opens a window for <b>SpaceX</b>.</b><br/><br/><b>Microsoft</b> had slowed down data center leasing activities significantly in late 2024, but SemiAnalysis states this trend reversed completely between 2025 and 2026. In October 2025, <b>Microsoft</b> signed a $250 billion infrastructure-as-a-service agreement with OpenAI, which SemiAnalysis estimates corresponds to about 7GW of computing power, leaving <b>Microsoft</b> severely constrained in its Foundry API business and applications like Copilot. To fill this gap, <b>Microsoft</b> has signed over 10GW in binding contracts year-to-date across leasing, self-building, and long-term power purchase agreements. SemiAnalysis believes that a $1.5 trillion contract between <b>Microsoft</b> and <b>SpaceX</b> for 3GW is &#34;not impossible,&#34; citing two reasons: first, <b>Microsoft</b> is already in a massive computing expansion cycle; second, <b>SpaceX</b> offers a 90-day cancellation clause, consistent with its contracts with Anthropic and Google, making it a low financial risk and easy to secure internal approval.<br/><br/><b><b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s construction speed is disrupting industry norms.</b><br/><br/>SemiAnalysis attributes <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s competitive advantage to a systematic disruption of traditional data center construction logic. The report lists several specific examples: Colossus 1&#39;s 300MW facility was completed in 122 days; the Southaven power plant expanded from 27 gas turbines (about 495MW) in February 2026 to 69 turbines (1.7GW) by July 2026; the &#34;MiniHard&#34; project began vertical construction in March 2026 and is expected to reach 450-500MW in about five months.<br/><br/>In addressing supply chain bottlenecks, <b>SpaceX</b> has adopted unconventional strategies: replacing large power transformers with a two-year backlog using Chinese-made power modules; purchasing gas turbines on the secondary market, including those originally destined for an Oracle site in New Mexico; and compressing commissioning cycles through highly parallelized construction and pre-assembly. Colossus 2 peak daily labor was about 3,000 people, significantly lower than the industry standard for a data center of similar size. SemiAnalysis argues that <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s core strength lies in prioritizing &#34;speed over efficiency,&#34; a common industry logic. In an era of extreme computing scarcity and high AI inference margins, a 500MW cluster that can be delivered in three months with a 90-day cancellation clause is one of the most scarce assets in the market. Google&#39;s decision to ultimately sign a contract with <b>SpaceX</b> is a testament to this logic.<br/><br/><b>Financing paths: Nvidia supplier financing and cash flow rollover.</b><br/><br/>Addressing concerns about <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s capital strength, SemiAnalysis proposes two financing paths. First, Nvidia could reduce <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s upfront cash outlay through supplier financing—a key reason why Musk announced exclusive use of Nvidia chips during the earnings call, despite <b>SpaceX</b> having previously evaluated alternatives like TPUs and AMD. Second, thanks to the industry&#39;s fastest delivery cycle, <b>SpaceX</b> can charge a premium of $30 million to $50 million per MW per year, allowing capital expenditure to be recovered through operating cash flow in less than a year. Combining these factors, SemiAnalysis predicts that, assuming only 50% of <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s 2027 incremental computing power is used for commercial inference monetization (with the rest reserved for training Grok and Cursor teams), <b>SpaceX</b>&#39;s ARR could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176595454","content_text":"SpaceX is transforming into a hyperscale computing provider at a pace that has surprised the market.Research firm SemiAnalysis highlights in a recent report that SpaceX could add more than 10GW of computing capacity by the end of 2027, potentially generating up to $300 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), with Microsoft emerging as its largest client.Previously, during SpaceX's first earnings call, Elon Musk stated a \"conservative\" target of building and delivering 6-8GW of incremental computing capacity in a single year by 2027, with an upside potential exceeding 10GW. Based on $50 billion in capital expenditure per GW, this implies a 2027 capital expenditure range of $300 billion to $500 billion, rivaling the expected investments of AWS and Google—a staggering figure for a company with profitability far below that of mainstream hyperscale cloud providers.SemiAnalysis notes that it has evaluated all suitable sites for SpaceX and tracked available gas turbine equipment on a quarterly basis, concluding that the targets are realistic. The report also points out that Microsoft has signed over 10GW in data center contracts year-to-date, with total contract value exceeding $300 billion. The potential demand for SpaceX's computing power could be a key variable in boosting Microsoft's Azure revenue growth from roughly 42% to over 100%.The high profit margins of inference computing are driving a surge in demand.SemiAnalysis's core argument is based on the high profitability of AI inference. According to its Tokenomics model and inference simulator, when OpenAI and Anthropic offer API inference services on GB300 clusters, each GW can generate over $100 billion in revenue annually. At a conservative lease price of $3 per GPU per hour, the cost per GW per year is about $12 billion, resulting in gross margins exceeding 60% for inference, with some flagship models reaching over 85%.This economic model also applies to Microsoft. SemiAnalysis points out that the renegotiated OpenAI agreement in April 2026 removed the original 20% revenue-sharing clause, meaning Microsoft can achieve similar per-MW revenue and margins to OpenAI and Anthropic when offering inference services using OpenAI models, without bearing any training costs. The report characterizes this situation as a \"once-in-a-century opportunity.\"Microsoft's computing shortfall opens a window for SpaceX.Microsoft had slowed down data center leasing activities significantly in late 2024, but SemiAnalysis states this trend reversed completely between 2025 and 2026. In October 2025, Microsoft signed a $250 billion infrastructure-as-a-service agreement with OpenAI, which SemiAnalysis estimates corresponds to about 7GW of computing power, leaving Microsoft severely constrained in its Foundry API business and applications like Copilot. To fill this gap, Microsoft has signed over 10GW in binding contracts year-to-date across leasing, self-building, and long-term power purchase agreements. SemiAnalysis believes that a $1.5 trillion contract between Microsoft and SpaceX for 3GW is \"not impossible,\" citing two reasons: first, Microsoft is already in a massive computing expansion cycle; second, SpaceX offers a 90-day cancellation clause, consistent with its contracts with Anthropic and Google, making it a low financial risk and easy to secure internal approval.SpaceX's construction speed is disrupting industry norms.SemiAnalysis attributes SpaceX's competitive advantage to a systematic disruption of traditional data center construction logic. The report lists several specific examples: Colossus 1's 300MW facility was completed in 122 days; the Southaven power plant expanded from 27 gas turbines (about 495MW) in February 2026 to 69 turbines (1.7GW) by July 2026; the \"MiniHard\" project began vertical construction in March 2026 and is expected to reach 450-500MW in about five months.In addressing supply chain bottlenecks, SpaceX has adopted unconventional strategies: replacing large power transformers with a two-year backlog using Chinese-made power modules; purchasing gas turbines on the secondary market, including those originally destined for an Oracle site in New Mexico; and compressing commissioning cycles through highly parallelized construction and pre-assembly. Colossus 2 peak daily labor was about 3,000 people, significantly lower than the industry standard for a data center of similar size. SemiAnalysis argues that SpaceX's core strength lies in prioritizing \"speed over efficiency,\" a common industry logic. In an era of extreme computing scarcity and high AI inference margins, a 500MW cluster that can be delivered in three months with a 90-day cancellation clause is one of the most scarce assets in the market. Google's decision to ultimately sign a contract with SpaceX is a testament to this logic.Financing paths: Nvidia supplier financing and cash flow rollover.Addressing concerns about SpaceX's capital strength, SemiAnalysis proposes two financing paths. First, Nvidia could reduce SpaceX's upfront cash outlay through supplier financing—a key reason why Musk announced exclusive use of Nvidia chips during the earnings call, despite SpaceX having previously evaluated alternatives like TPUs and AMD. Second, thanks to the industry's fastest delivery cycle, SpaceX can charge a premium of $30 million to $50 million per MW per year, allowing capital expenditure to be recovered through operating cash flow in less than a year. Combining these factors, SemiAnalysis predicts that, assuming only 50% of SpaceX's 2027 incremental computing power is used for commercial inference monetization (with the rest reserved for training Grok and Cursor teams), SpaceX's ARR could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1,"SPCX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":587396458005336,"gmtCreate":1784437526009,"gmtModify":1784441832072,"author":{"id":"4221635968879622","authorId":"4221635968879622","name":"avatar.ng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4221635968879622","idStr":"4221635968879622"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How can you compare apple with orange, first of all Meta was a awful company, bad reputation and bad to customers, not fulfilling social responsibility also. 2nd is meta can't compete with spacex on the size of its raise funding, spacex could raise trillions, means they are not even in the same league, more over Meta dispite its bad reputation, still able to recover and doing well it its price ... . So I don't know what are you trying to bring up? Or it's just politically wanna make spacex sounds bad? Or it's growth is not good for Jews business ecosystems? it has made a mark on history where no one did before this, so it'll continue to make a miracle and legend where there's no example to quote from!","listText":"How can you compare apple with orange, first of all Meta was a awful company, bad reputation and bad to customers, not fulfilling social responsibility also. 2nd is meta can't compete with spacex on the size of its raise funding, spacex could raise trillions, means they are not even in the same league, more over Meta dispite its bad reputation, still able to recover and doing well it its price ... . So I don't know what are you trying to bring up? Or it's just politically wanna make spacex sounds bad? Or it's growth is not good for Jews business ecosystems? it has made a mark on history where no one did before this, so it'll continue to make a miracle and legend where there's no example to quote from!","text":"How can you compare apple with orange, first of all Meta was a awful company, bad reputation and bad to customers, not fulfilling social responsibility also. 2nd is meta can't compete with spacex on the size of its raise funding, spacex could raise trillions, means they are not even in the same league, more over Meta dispite its bad reputation, still able to recover and doing well it its price ... . So I don't know what are you trying to bring up? Or it's just politically wanna make spacex sounds bad? Or it's growth is not good for Jews business ecosystems? it has made a mark on history where no one did before this, so it'll continue to make a miracle and legend where there's no example to quote from!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/587396458005336","repostId":"2652232464","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2652232464","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1784389260,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2652232464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-07-18 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Spacex's Stock a Bust Because it Fell Below $135? Look What Happened After Meta's IPO.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2652232464","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Close to half of major IPOs sink below their offering price - and stay there for several years. Here's why SpaceX is no different.SpaceX shares $(SPCX)$ dipped below their $135 initial public...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Close to half of major IPOs sink below their offering price - and stay there for several years. Here&#39;s why SpaceX is no different.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$(SPCX)$</a> dipped below their $135 initial public offering price this week - and were about 30% below their mid-June peak. And there&#39;s a good chance that they will be no higher in three years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bc333ba410bb715933125f7f133b30a3\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#39;s according to data compiled by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter. Among all large IPOs between 1975 and 2021, the shares of close to half were below their IPO price on their third birthdays. (The exact figure is 44.5%.) And if we base SpaceX&#39;s odds on all the IPOs in Ritter&#39;s database, regardless of size, there&#39;s a 56.1% probability of the stock being below water in June 2029.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Losing ground over the first couple of years post-IPO does not necessarily doom a stock&#39;s long-term potential. A prime example is Facebook, now <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META). Its IPO was in May 2012, and by Labor Day of that year the stock was trading at 54% less than its offering price. Yet Meta&#39;s long-term performance has been tremendous - almost 1,700% higher than its offering price, according to LSEG. That&#39;s equivalent to about 23% annualized.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I point all this out in order to put SpaceX&#39;s disappointing performance so far into historical perspective: The rocket maker&#39;s stock has dropped from an intraday high above $225 share on June 16, sparking a chorus of &#34;I told you so&#39;s&#34; from SpaceX&#39;s many detractors.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I won&#39;t defend the stock but will point out that the company&#39;s detractors are going too far. Many IPOs struggle after coming to market, because a new issue&#39;s shareholders are eager to sell at their first opportunity. That doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that these sellers are bearish on the company. Employees who were given shares over the years in lieu of cash compensation, for example, have one way to lock in the cash value of their deferred compensation: by selling.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In SpaceX&#39;s case there is a considerable overhang of shares that could be sold. Insiders who own so-called early release shares, for example, can sell up to 20% of those shares beginning two trading days after SpaceX&#39;s second-quarter earnings report, expected in early August. Given that SpaceX&#39;s float is small (it sold just 4% of total shares in its IPO), these insider sales could have a significant bearish effect over at least the near term.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The predictive power of an IPO&#39;s early performance</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A decline over the first six months after an IPO is a mildly bearish indicator of the stock&#39;s likely performance over the next six months.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">What significance would there be for SpaceX if its stock continues to drop in the coming weeks? Ritter noted in an email that a decline over the first six months after an IPO is a mildly bearish indicator of the stock&#39;s likely performance over the next six months.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In SpaceX&#39;s case, that means that if its stock is below $135 on Dec. 12, six months following its IPO, the odds are slightly elevated that the shares will also be below $135 on June 12 of next year, at the one-year mark.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">These odds are illustrated in the chart above. Given the wide variability of individual IPOs&#39; returns in the first six months, it&#39;s unclear how much statistical significance there is for the difference in the two groups&#39; average returns.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The bottom line? Investors considering SpaceX&#39;s stock should focus on the company&#39;s fundamentals such as earnings and revenue-growth rates. Those fundamentals will have far more impact on the stock&#39;s long-term returns than whether it trades above or below its offering price in the months after coming to market.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">-Mark Hulbert</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Spacex's Stock a Bust Because it Fell Below $135? Look What Happened After Meta's IPO.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Spacex's Stock a Bust Because it Fell Below $135? Look What Happened After Meta's IPO.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-18 23:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Close to half of major IPOs sink below their offering price - and stay there for several years. Here&#39;s why SpaceX is no different.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$(SPCX)$</a> dipped below their $135 initial public offering price this week - and were about 30% below their mid-June peak. And there&#39;s a good chance that they will be no higher in three years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bc333ba410bb715933125f7f133b30a3\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#39;s according to data compiled by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter. Among all large IPOs between 1975 and 2021, the shares of close to half were below their IPO price on their third birthdays. (The exact figure is 44.5%.) And if we base SpaceX&#39;s odds on all the IPOs in Ritter&#39;s database, regardless of size, there&#39;s a 56.1% probability of the stock being below water in June 2029.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Losing ground over the first couple of years post-IPO does not necessarily doom a stock&#39;s long-term potential. A prime example is Facebook, now <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META). Its IPO was in May 2012, and by Labor Day of that year the stock was trading at 54% less than its offering price. Yet Meta&#39;s long-term performance has been tremendous - almost 1,700% higher than its offering price, according to LSEG. That&#39;s equivalent to about 23% annualized.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I point all this out in order to put SpaceX&#39;s disappointing performance so far into historical perspective: The rocket maker&#39;s stock has dropped from an intraday high above $225 share on June 16, sparking a chorus of &#34;I told you so&#39;s&#34; from SpaceX&#39;s many detractors.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I won&#39;t defend the stock but will point out that the company&#39;s detractors are going too far. Many IPOs struggle after coming to market, because a new issue&#39;s shareholders are eager to sell at their first opportunity. That doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that these sellers are bearish on the company. Employees who were given shares over the years in lieu of cash compensation, for example, have one way to lock in the cash value of their deferred compensation: by selling.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In SpaceX&#39;s case there is a considerable overhang of shares that could be sold. Insiders who own so-called early release shares, for example, can sell up to 20% of those shares beginning two trading days after SpaceX&#39;s second-quarter earnings report, expected in early August. Given that SpaceX&#39;s float is small (it sold just 4% of total shares in its IPO), these insider sales could have a significant bearish effect over at least the near term.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The predictive power of an IPO&#39;s early performance</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A decline over the first six months after an IPO is a mildly bearish indicator of the stock&#39;s likely performance over the next six months.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">What significance would there be for SpaceX if its stock continues to drop in the coming weeks? Ritter noted in an email that a decline over the first six months after an IPO is a mildly bearish indicator of the stock&#39;s likely performance over the next six months.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In SpaceX&#39;s case, that means that if its stock is below $135 on Dec. 12, six months following its IPO, the odds are slightly elevated that the shares will also be below $135 on June 12 of next year, at the one-year mark.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">These odds are illustrated in the chart above. Given the wide variability of individual IPOs&#39; returns in the first six months, it&#39;s unclear how much statistical significance there is for the difference in the two groups&#39; average returns.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The bottom line? Investors considering SpaceX&#39;s stock should focus on the company&#39;s fundamentals such as earnings and revenue-growth rates. Those fundamentals will have far more impact on the stock&#39;s long-term returns than whether it trades above or below its offering price in the months after coming to market.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">-Mark Hulbert</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2361045086.USD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2272731865.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1670710588.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - 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Here's why SpaceX is no different.SpaceX shares $(SPCX)$ dipped below their $135 initial public offering price this week - and were about 30% below their mid-June peak. And there's a good chance that they will be no higher in three years.That's according to data compiled by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter. Among all large IPOs between 1975 and 2021, the shares of close to half were below their IPO price on their third birthdays. (The exact figure is 44.5%.) And if we base SpaceX's odds on all the IPOs in Ritter's database, regardless of size, there's a 56.1% probability of the stock being below water in June 2029.Losing ground over the first couple of years post-IPO does not necessarily doom a stock's long-term potential. A prime example is Facebook, now Meta Platforms (META). Its IPO was in May 2012, and by Labor Day of that year the stock was trading at 54% less than its offering price. Yet Meta's long-term performance has been tremendous - almost 1,700% higher than its offering price, according to LSEG. That's equivalent to about 23% annualized.I point all this out in order to put SpaceX's disappointing performance so far into historical perspective: The rocket maker's stock has dropped from an intraday high above $225 share on June 16, sparking a chorus of \"I told you so's\" from SpaceX's many detractors.I won't defend the stock but will point out that the company's detractors are going too far. Many IPOs struggle after coming to market, because a new issue's shareholders are eager to sell at their first opportunity. That doesn't necessarily mean that these sellers are bearish on the company. Employees who were given shares over the years in lieu of cash compensation, for example, have one way to lock in the cash value of their deferred compensation: by selling.In SpaceX's case there is a considerable overhang of shares that could be sold. Insiders who own so-called early release shares, for example, can sell up to 20% of those shares beginning two trading days after SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report, expected in early August. Given that SpaceX's float is small (it sold just 4% of total shares in its IPO), these insider sales could have a significant bearish effect over at least the near term.The predictive power of an IPO's early performanceA decline over the first six months after an IPO is a mildly bearish indicator of the stock's likely performance over the next six months.What significance would there be for SpaceX if its stock continues to drop in the coming weeks? Ritter noted in an email that a decline over the first six months after an IPO is a mildly bearish indicator of the stock's likely performance over the next six months.In SpaceX's case, that means that if its stock is below $135 on Dec. 12, six months following its IPO, the odds are slightly elevated that the shares will also be below $135 on June 12 of next year, at the one-year mark.These odds are illustrated in the chart above. Given the wide variability of individual IPOs' returns in the first six months, it's unclear how much statistical significance there is for the difference in the two groups' average returns.The bottom line? Investors considering SpaceX's stock should focus on the company's fundamentals such as earnings and revenue-growth rates. Those fundamentals will have far more impact on the stock's long-term returns than whether it trades above or below its offering price in the months after coming to market.-Mark Hulbert(END) Dow Jones Newswires","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FCOM":0.6,"VOX":0.6,"SPCM":0.6,"SPCG":0.6,"LTL":0.6,"XDAT":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"SSPC":0.6,"METV":0.6,"SPCX":1.95,"LOFF":0.6,"RSPC":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"SPAX":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"XLC":0.6,"SPCQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}