To The Moon

Hello. After Warsh spoke on Friday, one estimate put the odds of a September rate rise at 60 per cent. Over the weekend US forces struck Iran and Brent crude went above US$90. Dearer oil makes inflation harder to hold down. But this particular fire is burning on the supply side, where a rate rise will not put it out and will press on demand as well. In three days, September became a harder question. This was Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as chair. He restated the commitment to holding inflation down, and coverage rated the speech "moderately hawkish". He made clear he was not offering forward guidance; a former Fed vice chair said he had given it anyway. The market took him at his word: the two-year Treasury yield jumped, spot gold fell from US$4,649.60 last Thursday to US$4,478

The market had been pricing in liquidity, lower rates and a friendly Fed. Then Jackson Hole changed the story. 😳📊 Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone pushed investors to reconsider the path of interest rates, sending yields higher and putting pressure on risk assets. But here’s the important part: Friday’s sell-off does NOT automatically mean the bull market is over. 🐂📈 The bigger question is which stocks are actually vulnerable to higher rates — and which ones can continue performing because their fundamentals are strong. ⸻ 🏦 1. Jackson Hole Changed the Market Narrative Going into Friday, investors were positioned for a relatively supportive Federal Reserve. 📈💰 Stocks, gold and Bitcoin had all been moving higher together, which suggested that investors were betting on easier financial conditions a