RalphWood

    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-21 09:58
      $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ The European clarity act passing should push this much higher. A US version will likely get passed as well.
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-21 03:24
      $Strategy(MSTR)$ BTC.XLooking at the full commitments including debt and preferreds, plus total cash, it works out to $121.61 per share. Using only the required commitments, it's $152.09 per share. I prefer the $152 figure since the preferreds never come due, they're equity. MSTR is paying 11.3% on its preferreds, which is very high. No matter how high bitcoin goes, they need to reduce the preferreds. At that rate the stress on the common is significant. Buy STRD.
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-18
      BTC.XWould be great to get 3 tall green candles like back in mid-Aug. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$  $Strategy(MSTR)$  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  $Robinhood(HOOD)$ 
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-18
      $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ Charts are showing a bullish setup heading into next week. Gap up to $80.5, break $92.7, and the next target is $98 before resistance at $105. There's a clarity catalyst behind it, with a September move to $120. You heard it here first.
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-18
      For Circle ($Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ ), this looks like a major boost to their core revenue model. They earn a big part of their revenue from interest on the cash and U.S. Treasury reserves backing USDC. With tokenized stock trading now allowed through AMMs and liquidity pools, the SEC has essentially opened a path for trillions in traditional equity markets to move onchain. If trading volume scales up, demand for minting and holding USDC could rise sharply, expanding the reserves that generate interest for Circle.
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-18
      $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ TD Cowen raised its price target on CRCL to $92.00. The view is that while the CLARITY Act failure was an initial setback, the Federal Reserve's hawkish lean actually boosts Circle's near-term interest-revenue financials on its cash reserves. Institutional algorithms picked up on that revised bull case and triggered heavy buying.
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-18
      $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ The gap between institutions and retail seems to be closing pretty quickly. Institutions are often constrained by legislation, while retail investors have more freedom to act.
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-18
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-17
      The SEC has granted a 5-year exemption for tokenized stock trading in the US. The Commission approved a temporary, conditional exemption called the Innovation Exemption, which allows limited trading of tokenized NMS stocks on certain onchain venues referred to as Tokenized Securities Venues, or TSVs. The goal here is to give the Commission a chance to better understand how these venues operate before shaping future policy. US investors can now trade real tokenized equities onchain through qualifying venues, and this opens a path toward 24/7 US stock trading with onchain settlement. $Robinhood(HOOD)$  $Charles Schwab(SCHW)$  $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ 
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    • RalphWoodRalphWood
      ·09-17
      $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ CRCL is down with the broader market, but the underlying business has shifted in a pretty meaningful way. A 25 bp rate hike adds roughly $185M of annualized gross reserve income at the current USDC base. Another 25 bp hike would put the combined tailwind around $370M annually. I suspect it won't be long before the narrative moves from "higher rates hurt markets" to what higher for longer rates actually mean for Circle's bottom line. And unlike the last rate cycle, Circle now has Arc starting to build a new transaction and infrastructure driven revenue engine alongside reserve income. Higher reserve revenue now. New Arc economics developing going forward. The business is evolving even while the stock trades with t
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