$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Media, social platforms, news articles, reporting — it's all a joke. Just three days ago the sky was falling, the universe was ending, the blackest days in semis, and now today they've done a complete 180. Suddenly everything is rosy, the outlook is wonderful. Don't listen to any of it, especially the negative.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I accumulated around 1,400 shares of TSM over several months in 2021, buying between $100 and $120 a share. Total cost was about $160,000. I was selling puts and the shares would get put to me from time to time. By late 2023, it was pretty much dead money or a losing position. I decided to visit Taiwan to get a firsthand sense of the geopolitical risk that was weighing on the share price. The people I met there didn't seem worried about it. Kind of reminded me of visiting South Korea, where locals don't seem too concerned about North Korea either. Not sure if that's overconfidence on their part, but it was enough to convince me to hold on to my investment. Glad I did. It has more than tripled since the
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I was thinking back to a discussion we had about using dividends as income, and I compared it to how Warren Buffett capitalized on Coca Cola, bought in the 1970s and still holds. I think the bigger picture was missed there. My view is that chips are the new oil. Technology doesn't advance without them. Building a fab company takes around 10 years, and it's extremely hard for any startup to start from scratch. So I still see TSM as a growth company rather than a value company, and competition isn't an immediate concern. Here's how I look at the numbers: let's assume the stock doubles in 3 years, then 4 years after that, then 6 years after that, and after that it becomes a conventional value company with
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ earnings today. Apple has always been one of TSM's biggest customers — historically either the largest or at least in the top two, depending on the year and product cycle.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Just a remark. I have enough shares for my own situation and my cost basis is very low. I'm not looking to add here. But if someone is watching for an entry, this could be one to keep on the radar. You can't time the market, but I think the share price will be much higher 2-3 years out. Tech and markets in general are unpredictable, and these are just my own thoughts, not investment advice. Everyone should do their own research and decide what risks they're comfortable with.
$iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$ Japan is saying Korea has gotten a bit too cocky lately. Contract manufacturers in South Korea are raising prices and asking for a premium, almost like they are TSM. That might be true, but the way things are playing out, it looks like market makers could be using this to buy cheap. It looks super scary. Maybe taking the Asian long view and just parking it in an IRA for a year or so makes sense.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Went through STX's Q4 2026 earnings transcript even though things got busy tonight. Overall, things look solid. I'm hoping it ends up being one of the few AI names that actually moves higher following earnings.
Market makers seem to be using the uncertainty around the FOMC rate decision and war news to shake out weak hands, liquidating both longs and shorts. They have quarterly targets to meet, so the window for this kind of manipulation is limited. The best approach is probably just to ignore it and not play their game. If they overdo it, they would end up wrecking the whole market and putting their own jobs at risk. Avoiding leverage and margin makes it pretty hard for them to cause any real damage. As a long-term investor, my plan is to just DCA the dips and hold. On the stocks I'm watching: $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ could easily be a trillion-dollar company by year end. $Intel(INTC)$ seems lik
The weakness might be setting up something interesting here. There's an unusual combination playing out: supply is increasing and prices are rising at the same time. That tends to only happen when demand is running well ahead of available capacity. Reports indicate TSMC plans to raise foundry prices by up to 10% starting in 2027. The 2nm process, currently around $30,000 per wafer, could move above $33,000. Meanwhile, TSMC is still pushing aggressive capacity expansion. Baoshan 2nm capacity has reached around 20,000 wafers per month, new Kaohsiung capacity is coming online, the first-year 2nm output target is 45% higher than 3nm's first year, and 2nm capacity is expected to grow at around 70% CAGR from 2026 to 2028. The broader picture is that AI demand is pushing the semiconductor industr
$Amkor Technology(AMKR)$ This looks insanely oversold. The $1.5B investment from Nvidia came through recently, earnings and revenue beat, and it's the only advanced packaging play in the US. They're working side by side with TSM, Nvidia, AMD, and Intel to build out semiconductor manufacturing in the US.