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VersaillesLi
2021-04-29

Powell: Now is not the time to communicate about reducing quantitative easing. A temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that rate hike

鲍威尔着重阐述了“经济距离进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，现在不宜讨论加息和缩表，当时机适宜时，美联储将减码对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。美国经济复苏还不均衡，股市某些方面存在泡沫

Powell: Now is not the time to communicate about reducing quantitative easing. A temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that rate hike

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":109091438,"tweetId":"109091438","gmtCreate":1619653690124,"gmtModify":1704727350861,"author":{"id":3580330978833195,"idStr":"3580330978833195","authorId":3580330978833195,"authorIdStr":"3580330978833195","name":"VersaillesLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca74aeaa97cb87febbf8247318cbb951","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ka</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ka</body></html>","text":"ka","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109091438","repostId":1169826911,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169826911","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1619648937,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169826911?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 06:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell: Now is not the time to communicate about reducing quantitative easing. A temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169826911","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"鲍威尔着重阐述了“经济距离进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，现在不宜讨论加息和缩表，当时机适宜时，美联储将减码对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。美国经济复苏还不均衡，股市某些方面存在泡沫","content":"Powell emphasized that \"the economy is still a long way from further progress.\" It is not appropriate to discuss rate hike and shrinking balance sheet now. When the time is right, the Federal Reserve will reduce the speed of purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but not now. The U.S. economic recovery is still uneven, and there are bubbles in some aspects of the stock market. U.S. stocks all turned down after the \"bubble remarks\", and analysts said that the door to shrinking balance sheet was closed in the short term.On the afternoon of Wednesday, April 28, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.Consistent with market expectations, the Federal Reserve maintained policy stability at the April FOMC meeting, that is, it kept the benchmark interest rate target close to zero unchanged, and the monthly bond purchase scale of US $120 billion remained unchanged.The statement after the FOMC meeting reiterated the need to see more substantial progress in the economy, acknowledging that the economic growth of the United States is accelerating, and the United States will usher in higher inflation, but it is a temporary phenomenon, and the outlook still faces many risks.At the press conference, Powell highlighted the view that \"the economy is still a long way from further progress\", saying that this is not the time to discuss rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, all reflecting its dovish stance as always, causing the stock market and gold and silver to rise sharply and the US dollar to fall.However, at the 40-minute press conference, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively turned down. The S&P and Nasdaq erased all the gains after the announcement of the resolution and turned down. The Dow fell more than 140 points again. The reason is that Powell said, \"Something about the stock market does reflect a market bubble.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58dd062db907230fdb13846f0f5f952d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell: It will take'a while 'for the Fed to be happy with the economy, not talking about rate hike shrinking balance sheet nowPowell said that many economic sectors most affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic crisis have improved, but the recovery is still uneven and far from complete, and the unemployment rate is still high.He admitted that U.S. inflation will continue to rise to a certain extent, and then tend to ease. \"The recovery of consumer spending will push up prices. This phenomenon may be temporary.\" If U.S. price expectations exceed 2.0%, the Federal Reserve has the tools to deal with it.It is worth noting that he clearly pointed out that the temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that the Fed will rate hike, and now is not the time for the Fed to communicate with the market on the reduction of QE。 Before the goal is achieved, a near-zero interest rate policy is appropriate:\"The U.S. economy is still far from the Fed's dual goals of full employment and stable prices, and it may be some time before substantial progress is made. Before that, the Fed is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy. As far as the U.S. economic recovery is concerned, the epidemic Prevention and control is the most important factor, and the United States may need to make substantial progress in epidemic prevention and control. By vaccinating, the United States should be allowed to return to a more normal state in 2021. \" Michael Schumacher, a bond strategist at Wells Fargo, believes that this shows that Powell has almost denied any possibility of reducing bond purchases in the short term, completely closing the door to an immediate shrinking balance sheet, which means that there may be less room for U.S. bond yields to rise.However, as widely expected by the market, he feels that the Fed is gradually approaching the final tapering process. While it may take at least a few months to see the FOMC reactivate the \"tapering\" language, \"it will be more interesting at the June meeting,\" when there will be months of hot inflation data, and the Fed will face more pressure to explain its revised inflation framework.It should also be noted that Powell mentioned today that,When the time is right, the Federal Reserve will reduce the speed of purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but not now.Wall Street News previously mentioned that a Bloomberg survey said that more than two-thirds of the economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to issue early warning signals to reduce its bond purchases this year.Powell once again made it clear that the prerequisite for rate hike must meet two major conditions, and higher inflation reflects temporary factorsPowell once again pointed out at the press conference that the prerequisite for rate hike is that labor market conditions are consistent with the FOMC committee's assessment of maximizing employment, and the inflation rate rises to 2%, while it is expected to moderately exceed 2% for some time \":\"So far it is not close to making further substantial progress. Non-farm employment in the United States showed a heavy positive in March, but that was far from enough. Service workers may have difficulty finding jobs, and there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States.\" As mentioned above, Powell once said that a temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that the Fed will rate hike, and he further explained this:\"Frankly speaking, at a time when the labor market is significantly weak, it seems unlikely that we will see a sustained rise in inflation, which in turn will raise the market's inflation expectations. It will take some time for inflation to continue to rise and raise inflation expectations, and it will probably take It will only happen in a very strong labor market.\" He believes that \"no one should question the Fed's determination to control certain inflation,\" but some price increases will not exist for a long time. When faced with the question of soaring house prices, he said that \"the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the rise in house prices\", but believes that the price increase mainly reflects the fundamentals of strong demand and low supply, and \"the housing aspect has not caused financial stability concerns\".In terms of financial market supervision, Powell stuck to his earlier position, saying that risks similar to the liquidation of hedge fund Archegos did not aggravate concerns about the financial system. Something about the stock market does reflect a market bubble, but the market reflects COVID-19 vaccine's vaccination progress and economic situation to a greater extent than the Fed's policy:\"Overall, financial stability is mixed, but it is still controllable. The capital condition of the banking system is good, and the leverage of the financial system is not a problem. Many money funds have financing risks, not systemic problems. Pay attention to the operating kinetic energy of money funds and corporate bond funds.\" Regarding the U.S. central bank's version of digital currency, he said that the Federal Reserve feels obliged to have a good understanding of the technical and policy issues of digital currency. Compared with early adopters of digital currency, the Federal Reserve wants to do the right thing.In addition, Powell declined to comment on the White House fiscal plan. U.S. President Biden will announce the $1.8 trillion \"American Family Investment Plan\" on Wednesday night local time. He did not talk about whether he will be the chairman of the Federal Reserve of *.Analysis: The door to shrinking balance sheet will be closed in the short term, focusing on the dynamics of the Federal Reserve's meeting from June to AugustWall Street News has mentioned that the market is closely watching whether Powell will release a QE exit signal, especially how the Federal Reserve will define the vague concept of \"making substantial further progress.\" However, today's FOMC statement and press conference did not give a specific explanation.Goldman Sachs believes it is too early for the Fed to hint at tapering bond purchases. As the labor market further improves, the Federal Reserve may begin to release signals to reduce bond purchases as soon as the second half of this year, and formally begin to reduce bond purchases in early 2022. However, if the future employment report is better than expected, the Fed may also advance the time point of tapering bond purchases to the fourth quarter of this year.Goldman Sachs said with reference to historical data that the Federal Reserve may gradually withdraw its current $120 billion bond purchase program by reducing $15 billion per meeting。This means that 8 meetings are needed, that is, a full year to complete the bond purchase exit (starting in 2022 and ending at the end of 2022):After completing the exit of bond purchases, the Fed may use 1-2 quarters to assess the specific impact of exiting bond purchases while preparing for a rate hike.If all goes well, rate hike will officially be on the agenda by mid-2023.But Goldman Sachs stressed that on the issue of rate hike, if inflation falls short of expectations, the economy slows down, or the impact of fiscal stimulus subsides, the Fed's first rate hike may be postponed to the first quarter of 2024.According to the above-mentioned Bloomberg survey, more than two-thirds of economists expect the Federal Reserve to issue early warning signals to reduce the scale of bond purchases this year, with the largest number expected to send signals from July to September (45%). The specific occasion may come from the FOMC meeting in July or September, or Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress. The Jackson Hole annual central bank meeting held at the end of August is also a possible occasion to send a signal.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: Now is not the time to communicate about reducing quantitative easing. A temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: Now is not the time to communicate about reducing quantitative easing. A temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-04-29 06:28\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nPowell emphasized that \"the economy is still a long way from further progress.\" It is not appropriate to discuss rate hike and shrinking balance sheet now. When the time is right, the Federal Reserve will reduce the speed of purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but not now. The U.S. economic recovery is still uneven, and there are bubbles in some aspects of the stock market. U.S. stocks all turned down after the \"bubble remarks\", and analysts said that the door to shrinking balance sheet was closed in the short term.On the afternoon of Wednesday, April 28, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.Consistent with market expectations, the Federal Reserve maintained policy stability at the April FOMC meeting, that is, it kept the benchmark interest rate target close to zero unchanged, and the monthly bond purchase scale of US $120 billion remained unchanged.The statement after the FOMC meeting reiterated the need to see more substantial progress in the economy, acknowledging that the economic growth of the United States is accelerating, and the United States will usher in higher inflation, but it is a temporary phenomenon, and the outlook still faces many risks.At the press conference, Powell highlighted the view that \"the economy is still a long way from further progress\", saying that this is not the time to discuss rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, all reflecting its dovish stance as always, causing the stock market and gold and silver to rise sharply and the US dollar to fall.However, at the 40-minute press conference, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively turned down. The S&P and Nasdaq erased all the gains after the announcement of the resolution and turned down. The Dow fell more than 140 points again. The reason is that Powell said, \"Something about the stock market does reflect a market bubble.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58dd062db907230fdb13846f0f5f952d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell: It will take'a while 'for the Fed to be happy with the economy, not talking about rate hike shrinking balance sheet nowPowell said that many economic sectors most affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic crisis have improved, but the recovery is still uneven and far from complete, and the unemployment rate is still high.He admitted that U.S. inflation will continue to rise to a certain extent, and then tend to ease. \"The recovery of consumer spending will push up prices. This phenomenon may be temporary.\" If U.S. price expectations exceed 2.0%, the Federal Reserve has the tools to deal with it.It is worth noting that he clearly pointed out that the temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that the Fed will rate hike, and now is not the time for the Fed to communicate with the market on the reduction of QE。 Before the goal is achieved, a near-zero interest rate policy is appropriate:\"The U.S. economy is still far from the Fed's dual goals of full employment and stable prices, and it may be some time before substantial progress is made. Before that, the Fed is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy. As far as the U.S. economic recovery is concerned, the epidemic Prevention and control is the most important factor, and the United States may need to make substantial progress in epidemic prevention and control. By vaccinating, the United States should be allowed to return to a more normal state in 2021. \" Michael Schumacher, a bond strategist at Wells Fargo, believes that this shows that Powell has almost denied any possibility of reducing bond purchases in the short term, completely closing the door to an immediate shrinking balance sheet, which means that there may be less room for U.S. bond yields to rise.However, as widely expected by the market, he feels that the Fed is gradually approaching the final tapering process. While it may take at least a few months to see the FOMC reactivate the \"tapering\" language, \"it will be more interesting at the June meeting,\" when there will be months of hot inflation data, and the Fed will face more pressure to explain its revised inflation framework.It should also be noted that Powell mentioned today that,When the time is right, the Federal Reserve will reduce the speed of purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but not now.Wall Street News previously mentioned that a Bloomberg survey said that more than two-thirds of the economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to issue early warning signals to reduce its bond purchases this year.Powell once again made it clear that the prerequisite for rate hike must meet two major conditions, and higher inflation reflects temporary factorsPowell once again pointed out at the press conference that the prerequisite for rate hike is that labor market conditions are consistent with the FOMC committee's assessment of maximizing employment, and the inflation rate rises to 2%, while it is expected to moderately exceed 2% for some time \":\"So far it is not close to making further substantial progress. Non-farm employment in the United States showed a heavy positive in March, but that was far from enough. Service workers may have difficulty finding jobs, and there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States.\" As mentioned above, Powell once said that a temporary rise in inflation does not guarantee that the Fed will rate hike, and he further explained this:\"Frankly speaking, at a time when the labor market is significantly weak, it seems unlikely that we will see a sustained rise in inflation, which in turn will raise the market's inflation expectations. It will take some time for inflation to continue to rise and raise inflation expectations, and it will probably take It will only happen in a very strong labor market.\" He believes that \"no one should question the Fed's determination to control certain inflation,\" but some price increases will not exist for a long time. When faced with the question of soaring house prices, he said that \"the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the rise in house prices\", but believes that the price increase mainly reflects the fundamentals of strong demand and low supply, and \"the housing aspect has not caused financial stability concerns\".In terms of financial market supervision, Powell stuck to his earlier position, saying that risks similar to the liquidation of hedge fund Archegos did not aggravate concerns about the financial system. Something about the stock market does reflect a market bubble, but the market reflects COVID-19 vaccine's vaccination progress and economic situation to a greater extent than the Fed's policy:\"Overall, financial stability is mixed, but it is still controllable. The capital condition of the banking system is good, and the leverage of the financial system is not a problem. Many money funds have financing risks, not systemic problems. Pay attention to the operating kinetic energy of money funds and corporate bond funds.\" Regarding the U.S. central bank's version of digital currency, he said that the Federal Reserve feels obliged to have a good understanding of the technical and policy issues of digital currency. Compared with early adopters of digital currency, the Federal Reserve wants to do the right thing.In addition, Powell declined to comment on the White House fiscal plan. U.S. President Biden will announce the $1.8 trillion \"American Family Investment Plan\" on Wednesday night local time. He did not talk about whether he will be the chairman of the Federal Reserve of *.Analysis: The door to shrinking balance sheet will be closed in the short term, focusing on the dynamics of the Federal Reserve's meeting from June to AugustWall Street News has mentioned that the market is closely watching whether Powell will release a QE exit signal, especially how the Federal Reserve will define the vague concept of \"making substantial further progress.\" However, today's FOMC statement and press conference did not give a specific explanation.Goldman Sachs believes it is too early for the Fed to hint at tapering bond purchases. As the labor market further improves, the Federal Reserve may begin to release signals to reduce bond purchases as soon as the second half of this year, and formally begin to reduce bond purchases in early 2022. However, if the future employment report is better than expected, the Fed may also advance the time point of tapering bond purchases to the fourth quarter of this year.Goldman Sachs said with reference to historical data that the Federal Reserve may gradually withdraw its current $120 billion bond purchase program by reducing $15 billion per meeting。This means that 8 meetings are needed, that is, a full year to complete the bond purchase exit (starting in 2022 and ending at the end of 2022):After completing the exit of bond purchases, the Fed may use 1-2 quarters to assess the specific impact of exiting bond purchases while preparing for a rate hike.If all goes well, rate hike will officially be on the agenda by mid-2023.But Goldman Sachs stressed that on the issue of rate hike, if inflation falls short of expectations, the economy slows down, or the impact of fiscal stimulus subsides, the Fed's first rate hike may be postponed to the first quarter of 2024.According to the above-mentioned Bloomberg survey, more than two-thirds of economists expect the Federal Reserve to issue early warning signals to reduce the scale of bond purchases this year, with the largest number expected to send signals from July to September (45%). The specific occasion may come from the FOMC meeting in July or September, or Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress. The Jackson Hole annual central bank meeting held at the end of August is also a possible occasion to send a signal.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169826911","content_text":"鲍威尔着重阐述了“经济距离进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，现在不宜讨论加息和缩表，当时机适宜时，美联储将减码对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。美国经济复苏还不均衡，股市某些方面存在泡沫。美股在“泡沫言论”后悉数转跌，分析称短期内缩表大门被关闭。\n美东时间4月28日周三下午，美联储公布最新利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。\n与市场预期一致，美联储在4月FOMC会议上保持政策稳定，即维持接近零的基准利率目标不变，每月1200亿美元的债券购买规模也不变。\nFOMC会后声明重申需要看到经济取得更多实质性进展，承认美国经济增速加快，美国会迎来更高的通胀但为暂时现象，而且前景仍然面临诸多风险。\n鲍威尔在记者会上着重阐述了“经济距离进一步进展还有很长的路要走”这一观点，他认为现在不是讨论加息和缩表的时候，都体现了其一如既往的鸽派立场，令股市和金银大涨、美元下跌。\n不过在记者会40分钟时，美股三大指数集体转跌，标普和纳指抹去决议公布后的全部涨幅而转跌，道指重新跌超140点。原因在于鲍威尔称，“股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫。”\n\n鲍威尔：美联储对经济感到满意需要“一段时间”，现在不谈加息缩表\n鲍威尔表示，遭受新冠肺炎疫情危机影响最严重的多个经济领域已经出现改善，但复苏仍然不均衡，而且远远没有完成复苏，失业率仍然偏高。\n他承认美国通胀将在一定程度上继续上升，然后趋于缓和，“消费者开支回暖将推高物价，这样的现象可能是暂时性的”，如果美国物价预期突破2.0%，美联储有应对工具。\n值得注意的是，他明确指出通胀的临时上扬不保证美联储将加息，现在也不是美联储针对减码QE向市场进行沟通的时机。在实现目标前，接近零的利率政策是适宜的：\n\n “美国经济距离美联储实现充分就业和稳定物价的双重目标还很遥远，距离取得实质性进展可能还有一段时间，在此之前，美联储预期将保持宽松的货币政策。就美国经济复苏而言，疫情防控是最重要的因素，可能美国需要在疫情防控上取得实质性进展。通过接种疫苗，应当允许美国在2021年重返更加正常的状态。”\n\n富国银行债券策略师Michael Schumacher认为，这说明鲍威尔几乎否定了短期内减少购债的任何可能性，彻底关上了马上缩表的大门，这意味着美债收益率的升幅空间可能要小一些。\n不过，正如市场普遍预期的那样，他觉得美联储正逐渐接近最终的缩债进程。虽然可能至少需要几个月才可能看到FOMC重新启用“缩债”措辞，“6月会议时会更加有趣”，届时会有几个月的火热通胀数据，美联储将面临更大压力来解释其修正后的通胀框架。\n还需注意的是，鲍威尔今日提到，当时机适宜时，美联储将减码对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。\n华尔街见闻之前提及，彭博调查称，超过三分之二的受调查经济学家预计，美联储将在今年发出缩减购债规模的早期预警信号。\n鲍威尔再次明确加息前提必须满足两大条件，通胀走高反映临时因素\n鲍威尔再一次在记者会上指出，加息的前提条件是——劳动力市场状况与FOMC委员会对最大化就业的评估相一致，并且通胀率上升至2%，同时有望在一段时间内温和超过2%”：\n\n “迄今并不接近取得进一步的实质性进展。美国3月非农就业呈现重磅利好，但那远远不够。服务业工人可能难以找到工作，美国仍然有大量失业人口。”\n\n上文提到，鲍威尔曾称，通胀的临时上扬不保证美联储将加息，他也对此作了进一步解释：\n\n “坦率地说，在劳动力市场显著疲软的当下，我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，进而提升市场的通胀预期。要使通胀持续上升并抬升通胀预期，将需要一段时间，而且很可能需要在非常强大的劳动力市场中才会发生这种情况。”\n\n他认为，“所有人都不应当质疑美联储控制特定通胀的决心”，但部分物价上涨现象不会长期存在。面对房价蹿升的提问时，他表示“美联储非常密切地留意房价上涨”，但认为涨价主要体现出需求强劲和供应不太多的基本面，“住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑”。\n在金融市场监管方面，鲍威尔坚持早前的立场称，类似于对冲基金Archegos爆仓的风险并未加重对金融系统的担忧。股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫，但市场在更大程度上体现出新冠疫苗接种进度和经济形势，而不是美联储的政策：\n\n “整体而言，金融稳定性良莠不齐，但仍然是可控的。银行系统的资本状况良好，金融系统的杠杆并不是一个问题，众多货币基金存在融资风险方面的问题，而不是系统性的问题。正关注货币基金和公司债基金的运转动能。”\n\n对于美国央行版数字货币一事，他表示，美联储觉得有义务很好地理解数字货币的技术和政策问题，相比在数字货币方面尝鲜，美联储更希望做正确的事。\n此外，鲍威尔拒绝置评白宫财政计划，美国总统拜登将于当地时间周三晚公布1.8万亿美元的“美国家庭投资计划”，他也没有谈及自己会否连任美联储主席的前景。\n分析：短期内缩表大门关闭，重点关注美联储6至8月开会动态\n华尔街见闻曾提到，市场紧盯鲍威尔会否释放QE退出信号，特别是关注美联储将如何定义“取得实质性进一步进展”这个模糊概念。不过，今日的FOMC声明和记者会都没作出具体阐释。\n高盛认为美联储现在暗示缩减购债还为时过早。随着劳动力市场进一步改善，美联储最快可能在今年下半年开始释放缩减购债的信号，在2022年初开始正式缩减。但如果未来就业报告好于预期，美联储也可能将购债缩减时间点提前到今年四季度。\n高盛参考历史数据称，美联储可能会采取每次会议缩减150亿美元的方式，逐步退出现在1200亿美元的购债计划。这意味需要8次会议，即整整一年来完成购债退出（2022年开始，2022年底结束）：\n\n 完成购债退出后，美联储可能会利用1-2个季度评估退出购债的具体影响，同时为加息做准备。\n 如果一切顺利，到2023年中期加息将正式提上议程。\n\n但高盛强调称，在加息问题上，如果通胀不及预期、经济放缓或财政刺激影响消退，美联储首次加息时间点可能会推迟到2024年一季度。\n上文提到的彭博调查称，超过2/3的经济学家预计，美联储将在今年发出缩减购债规模的早期预警信号，其中预计在7—9月发出信号的人数最多(45%)。具体场合可能来自7月或9月的FOMC会议，或是鲍威尔对国会的半年度证词。8月底举行的杰克逊霍尔央行年会也是传递信号的可能场合。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}