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招财进宝的我
2021-06-22

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This week and this summer, the theme of market trading is the Federal Reserve

上周，美联储称将考虑逐步退出债券购买，并暗示在2023年年底前加息两次，在全球市场引起较大反响，资产价格波动性上升。而本周，美联储仍然是主导市场波动的主要力量，甚至这个夏天市场交易的主题都是美联储。

This week and this summer, the theme of market trading is the Federal Reserve

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招财进宝的我
·2022-06-22
也是
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招财进宝的我
·2021-06-28
Gogogo
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NEW_amy000
·2021-06-22
yes
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招财进宝的我
·2021-06-25
好的??
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This week, the Federal Reserve is still the main force dominating market volatility, and even the theme of market trading this summer is the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Currently, the Fed's monthly bond purchases are US $120 billion. If the Fed starts to buy bonds, it will not be far from rate hike. The US Dollar Index has surged in recent days, with U.S. bond yields suggesting higher short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5346dc82e10701b894c99ce861f6a0fb\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ed Keon, chief investment officer of QMA, said, \"The market will continue to digest the Fed's interest rate meeting.\"</p><p><b>This week, the speeches of Fed officials will gain more widespread attention:</b></p><p>On Monday, the president of the New York Fed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>And St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver speeches.</p><p>On Tuesday, Powell will address the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis on the Fed's policy response and the economy; Cleveland Fed President Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gave speeches.</p><p>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivered a speech; Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke.</p><p>On Thursday, New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver speeches. Atlanta Fed President Bostic will also speak.</p><p>This Friday, Mester of the Cleveland Fed and Rosengren of the Boston Fed will speak separately.</p><p>Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Blakley Global Advisors, said, \"It is critical to have a more comprehensive understanding of the views of Fed officials, but of course what I am most interested in is what Powell has to say.\"</p><p>This Friday's U.S. personal consumption expenditures data should generate a lot of interest, including the personal consumption expenditures inflation index closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been emphasizing its view that the rise in inflation is only temporary and should calm down next year.</p><p>Peter Boockvar believes that this Friday's inflation data should reflect a relatively strong month-on-month growth and become the most important trading theme in the market; It will also be the trading theme of the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year, as well as the adjustment of the Fed's stance on inflation. In this inflation battle, it is no longer just a matter for the United States, but a global focus.</p><p>The Fed's current dot plot shows two rate hike in 2023, but the market is more suspicious about inflation. Investors believe there could be one or more rate hike next year, with at least four rate hike in total by the end of 2023, according to data from the futures market. Housing prices in the United States are soaring, and a slight increase in housing interest rates can no longer stop house prices from rising. This week, the U.S. will release data on second-hand and new home sales, which may provide more clues.</p><p><b>Under the current background, how to do asset allocation?</b></p><p>Ed Keon said that the market is volatile, but take the changes at the Fed in calm. He said that he is overweighted with stocks in his portfolio, \"We are comfortable with our current position allocation, and earnings could grow 40% this year because interest rates remain fairly low, which is a great environment for the stock market.\"</p><p>Ed Keon also said that he has turned to value stock investing and is not fully prepared for the reopening of the economy. But nothing on the market lasts forever. It's hard to say whether this is the beginning of a major shift or a slight rebound (in tech), interest rates will be a deciding factor. If the closely watched 10-year Treasury Bond yield rises to 2% from the current 1.5%, it will be positive for value stocks. But if the index stays around 1.5%, tech stocks may continue to do well. \"</p><p><b>Rate hike's steps may not be what the market expected</b></p><p>Ed Keon further interpreted that the idea is that Powell made it clear at the press conference that he did not plan to rate hike until 2023. The economy will see fairly strong growth in 2022, and by 2023, the economy will slow down. Will the Fed rate hike amid a slowdown? Probably not.</p><p>So will the Fed rate hike before 2023? Ed Keon believes that unless inflation unexpectedly rises, this is not possible. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will not make a rate hike until 2023, not taking into account the unexpected rise in inflation; Similarly, the market has not factored in the risk that the Fed's 2023 rate hike will increase a recession.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the Fed has stirred up markets and ripples of volatility have started. He expects investors to get nervous as the Fed's late July meeting looms and the central bank heads to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for its annual symposium in late August.</p><p>Many economists believe that the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting is the place where the Fed discusses the details of Taper. Once the Federal Reserve officially announces the normalization of monetary policy, the scale of asset purchases will gradually shrink within a few months, which also means that the door to rate hike will gradually open.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week and this summer, the theme of market trading is the Federal Reserve</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week and this summer, the theme of market trading is the Federal Reserve\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 10:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, the Federal Reserve said it would consider phasing out bond purchases and hinted at two rate hike before the end of 2023, which caused great repercussions in global markets and increased asset price volatility. This week, the Federal Reserve is still the main force dominating market volatility, and even the theme of market trading this summer is the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Currently, the Fed's monthly bond purchases are US $120 billion. If the Fed starts to buy bonds, it will not be far from rate hike. The US Dollar Index has surged in recent days, with U.S. bond yields suggesting higher short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5346dc82e10701b894c99ce861f6a0fb\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ed Keon, chief investment officer of QMA, said, \"The market will continue to digest the Fed's interest rate meeting.\"</p><p><b>This week, the speeches of Fed officials will gain more widespread attention:</b></p><p>On Monday, the president of the New York Fed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>And St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver speeches.</p><p>On Tuesday, Powell will address the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis on the Fed's policy response and the economy; Cleveland Fed President Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gave speeches.</p><p>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivered a speech; Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke.</p><p>On Thursday, New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver speeches. Atlanta Fed President Bostic will also speak.</p><p>This Friday, Mester of the Cleveland Fed and Rosengren of the Boston Fed will speak separately.</p><p>Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Blakley Global Advisors, said, \"It is critical to have a more comprehensive understanding of the views of Fed officials, but of course what I am most interested in is what Powell has to say.\"</p><p>This Friday's U.S. personal consumption expenditures data should generate a lot of interest, including the personal consumption expenditures inflation index closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been emphasizing its view that the rise in inflation is only temporary and should calm down next year.</p><p>Peter Boockvar believes that this Friday's inflation data should reflect a relatively strong month-on-month growth and become the most important trading theme in the market; It will also be the trading theme of the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year, as well as the adjustment of the Fed's stance on inflation. In this inflation battle, it is no longer just a matter for the United States, but a global focus.</p><p>The Fed's current dot plot shows two rate hike in 2023, but the market is more suspicious about inflation. Investors believe there could be one or more rate hike next year, with at least four rate hike in total by the end of 2023, according to data from the futures market. Housing prices in the United States are soaring, and a slight increase in housing interest rates can no longer stop house prices from rising. This week, the U.S. will release data on second-hand and new home sales, which may provide more clues.</p><p><b>Under the current background, how to do asset allocation?</b></p><p>Ed Keon said that the market is volatile, but take the changes at the Fed in calm. He said that he is overweighted with stocks in his portfolio, \"We are comfortable with our current position allocation, and earnings could grow 40% this year because interest rates remain fairly low, which is a great environment for the stock market.\"</p><p>Ed Keon also said that he has turned to value stock investing and is not fully prepared for the reopening of the economy. But nothing on the market lasts forever. It's hard to say whether this is the beginning of a major shift or a slight rebound (in tech), interest rates will be a deciding factor. If the closely watched 10-year Treasury Bond yield rises to 2% from the current 1.5%, it will be positive for value stocks. But if the index stays around 1.5%, tech stocks may continue to do well. \"</p><p><b>Rate hike's steps may not be what the market expected</b></p><p>Ed Keon further interpreted that the idea is that Powell made it clear at the press conference that he did not plan to rate hike until 2023. The economy will see fairly strong growth in 2022, and by 2023, the economy will slow down. Will the Fed rate hike amid a slowdown? Probably not.</p><p>So will the Fed rate hike before 2023? Ed Keon believes that unless inflation unexpectedly rises, this is not possible. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will not make a rate hike until 2023, not taking into account the unexpected rise in inflation; Similarly, the market has not factored in the risk that the Fed's 2023 rate hike will increase a recession.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the Fed has stirred up markets and ripples of volatility have started. He expects investors to get nervous as the Fed's late July meeting looms and the central bank heads to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for its annual symposium in late August.</p><p>Many economists believe that the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting is the place where the Fed discusses the details of Taper. Once the Federal Reserve officially announces the normalization of monetary policy, the scale of asset purchases will gradually shrink within a few months, which also means that the door to rate hike will gradually open.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b4e15d347bc21387354c9060813b94","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145508323","content_text":"上周，美联储称将考虑逐步退出债券购买，并暗示在2023年年底前加息两次，在全球市场引起较大反响，资产价格波动性上升。而本周，美联储仍然是主导市场波动的主要力量，甚至这个夏天市场交易的主题都是美联储。\n目前，美联储每月的购债规模为1200亿美元，如果美联储开始着手购债，那么离加息也就不远了。美元指数近几天大涨，美债收益率暗示短期利率走高。\n\nQMA 的首席投资官 Ed Keon表示，“市场还会继续消化美联储的议息会议“。\n本周，美联储官员的发言会获得更加广泛的关注：\n本周一，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将发表讲话。\n本周二，鲍威尔将在众议院冠状病毒危机特别小组委员会，就美联储的政策反应和经济发表讲话;克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特与旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利发表讲话。\n本周三，美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼发表讲话;亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦发表讲话。\n本周四，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将发表讲话。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也将发表讲话。\n本周五，克利夫兰联储的梅斯特和波士顿联储的罗森格伦将分别发表讲话。\nBlakley Global Advisors首席投资策略师Peter Boockvar表示，“更加全方位的了解美联储官员的观点很关键，但我最感兴趣的当然是鲍威尔要说的话。”\n本周五的美国个人消费支出数据应该会引起很多人的兴趣，其中包括美联储密切关注的个人消费支出通胀指数。美联储一直在强调其观点，即通胀率上升只是暂时的，明年应该会平静下来。\nPeter Boockvar认为，本周五的通胀数据应该会反映出比较强劲的环比增长，也会成为市场最重要的一个交易主题;也将是美股市场在下半年的交易主题，以及美联储看待通胀问题的立场调整。在这场通胀之争中，已经不仅仅是美国一国的事情，而是全球焦点。\n美联储目前的点阵图显示，2023年加息两次，但市场对通胀的疑虑更大。根据期货市场的数据，投资者认为明年可能有一次或多次加息，2023年底前至少总共有四次加息。美国房价飞涨，小幅提高房产利率已经无法阻止房价上涨。本周，美国将公布二手房和新房销售数据，可能提供更多线索。\n当前背景下，如何做资产配置?\nEd Keon 表示，市场波动很大，但要对美联储的变化从容应对。他说，他的投资组合中超配股票，“我们对当前的头寸配置很满意，今年的收益可能增长40%，因为利率保持在相当低的水平，这对股市来说是一个很好的环境。”\nEd Keon 还表示，已经转向价值股投资，并未经济重新开放做了充分的准备。但市场上没有什么东西是永远的。很难说这是重大转变的开始，还是(科技)的轻微反弹，利率将是一个决定因素。如果备受关注的10年期国债收益率从目前的1.5%升至2%，这对价值股将是利好。但如果该指数保持在1.5%左右，科技股可能继续表现良好。”\n加息的步骤可能不是市场预期的那样\nEd Keon 进一步解读称，人们的想法是，鲍威尔在记者招待会上明确表示，他在2023年之前不打算加息。经济将在在2022年获得相当强劲的增长，而到2023年，经济会放缓，美联储会在经济放缓的情况下加息吗?可能并不会。\n那么美联储会在2023年前加息吗?Ed Keon 认为，除非通胀意外上行，否则没有这种可能。市场认为美联储在2023年才会加息，没有计入通胀意外上行的情况;同样的，市场也没有计入美联储2023年加息会增加经济衰退的风险。\nBTIG股票和衍生品策略主管Julian Emanuel表示，美联储已经搅动了市场，波动性的涟漪已起。他预计，随着美联储7月下旬会议的临近，以及美联储将于8月下旬前往怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson 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