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妹纸
2021-06-28

They are all speculating on chips. What chips are most lacking, and where are the opportunities?

下游景气程度越高，芯片需求也会随之越高。芯片短缺已经超过半年的时间了，从去年年底到现在，芯片紧缺的程度持续在加重，全球各大晶圆代工厂、IC设计公司（包括IDM）纷纷宣布涨价，今年Q2开启第二波涨价

They are all speculating on chips. What chips are most lacking, and where are the opportunities?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":127551340,"tweetId":"127551340","gmtCreate":1624858284280,"gmtModify":1703846378399,"author":{"id":4087794899384430,"idStr":"4087794899384430","authorId":4087794899384430,"authorIdStr":"4087794899384430","name":"妹纸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7337c0390b8e50d433d9301a866f95","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127551340","repostId":1116935305,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116935305","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624852546,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116935305?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"They are all speculating on chips. What chips are most lacking, and where are the opportunities?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116935305","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"下游景气程度越高，芯片需求也会随之越高。\n\n芯片短缺已经超过半年的时间了，从去年年底到现在，芯片紧缺的程度持续在加重，全球各大晶圆代工厂、IC设计公司（包括IDM）纷纷宣布涨价，今年Q2开启第二波涨价","content":"The higher the degree of downstream prosperity, the higher the demand for chips. The chip shortage has been going on for more than half a year. From the end of last year to the present, the chip shortage has continued to worsen. Major wafer foundries and IC design companies (including IDM) around the world have announced price increases.This year's Q2 started the second wave of price increases, followed by the third wave of price increases in July. The entire industry is talking about the shortage of chips. What chips are most lacking?We have mentioned many times in recent reports that from the perspective of the industrial chain, wafer manufacturing in the midstream includes design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing. Among them, design companies are the ones that benefit most from this round of semiconductor upward cycle. Due to the high downstream prosperity (especially new energy vehicles and small household appliances), design companies can well transmit the price increase in the manufacturing process to the downstream. And because design companies control customers, such companies have stronger bargaining power on downstream applications when the market supply is in short supply, which is one of the core reasons why design companies perform better in terms of stock prices.There are many downstream applications of semiconductors, and the direction we are focusing on today is the most scarce MCU (Micro controller Unit).The MCU can be understood as a small CPU, that is, the frequency and specifications of the normal CPU are reduced, and then the memory, counter, USB, A/D conversion, UART and even LCD driver circuit are integrated into a single chip. On the chip, a micro computer is formed. This chip can realize programming functions and control the terminal by writing programs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2d39cbf219a94c46d12deadc16e6b1\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's first take a look at how scarce the MCU is now. Originally, the normal delivery time was only 8-10 weeks, but now it has been greatly extended. Major international manufacturers include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>And so on, the delivery time has been greatly extended several times.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc53edafefaa241dcc4e64cc3aa2d2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, the price of MCU is also soaring. Take STMicroelectronics' best-selling model STM32F103RCT6 as an example. It was only 12.35 yuan/piece in 2019, 73.13 yuan/piece in December 2020, and reached 157.95 yuan in May 2021./piece, an increase of more than 10 times in two years.From the current delivery date of the product and the price increase, it can be seen that MCU is currently in a state of very shortage.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51543db28dce27f8c5038059c54b9acf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The direction of high downstream prosperityWhen we talk about the investment logic of IC design, foreign manufacturers focus on the IDM model, and domestic manufacturers focus on the Fabless model. For a pure design company like Fabless, a key point is to look at the prosperity of its downstream applications. Generally speaking, the higher the degree of downstream prosperity, the higher the degree of chip prosperity (that is, demand). And after that, let's see how the company can obtain production capacity.The application scenarios of MCU can be divided into several analogies, such as the Internet of Things (communication + MCU integration), consumer electronics (IoT,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home and smart wearables), automotive electronics (fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles), industrial control (industrial intelligence), etc. Among them, the current best prosperity is small household appliances in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles in cars.Next we will start withLet's look in these two directions to see which companies will benefit from the high prosperity of small household appliances and new energy vehicles.1. Small home appliancesFirst, let's look at the main MCU companies in the field of small household appliances:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300327\">Zhongying Electronics</a>300327. SZ, whose main business is MCU chip design, the main direction of downstream applications is the field of small household appliances, and it is also gradually expanding to other industrial and consumer scenarios, among which the field of household appliances has the highest market share.The domestic small home appliance MCU market share is about 20%, ranking among the top three; However, the market share of white goods is less than 10%. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the new demand brought by the localization of the supply chain of domestic downstream white goods manufacturers such as Midea, as well as the ASP improvement brought by the upgrade of the company's products from non-inverter to inverter air conditioners.Under the development trend of intelligent and high-end home appliances, with the increasing number of home appliance categories and the upgrading of home appliance MCUs in the future, the company's turnover in the field of small home appliance MCUs will continue to expand steadily.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e557a603f461248f474e6f1c414531d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Against the background of insufficient supply of industrial production capacity, the price of wafer manufacturers is rising. In the case of a shortage of chips, Zhongying is also appropriately transmitting costs to the downstream. Most products have raised prices from January 1, 2021. The price adjustment mainly reflects the adjustment rate of the upstream supply chain. If the production capacity is resolved in the future, product prices may be subject to some slight downward adjustment pressure every year.Since last year, Zhongying has taken corresponding measures, laid out in advance, and actively responded to upstream supply chains such as wafer fabs and packaging and testing plants to strive for production capacity. For example, most of Zhongying is engaged in 8-inch wafer foundry with mature manufacturing processes, and a small part of The chip manufacturing process has been transferred from 8-inch to 12-inch wafer foundry, bringing some new production capacity. However, the company's downstream demand is strong, and the new production capacity it strives for in the short term still cannot absorb the demand of customer orders. The company and distributors basically have no inventory, and the shortage of MCUs will continue in the short term.Overall, the logic of Zhongying Electronics' rising volume and price is relatively clear.2. New energy vehiclesThe global and domestic automotive MCU markets are mainly composed of NXP, Renesas, Infineon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCHP\">Microchip Technology</a>Occupy, accounting for about 85% of the market share. Due to the strict quality of automotive-grade MCU products, the complicated certification process and large investment, it is difficult to make a profit in the short term, and due to the late start of domestic automotive MCUs, few companies are involved in this field of business.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99a6b9194365f8290a34c6e25986286\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At present, domestic companies that have mass-produced MCUs mainly include: Jiefa Technology, Shanghai Xinwang Microelectronics, Saiteng Microelectronics, China Micro Semiconductor and other companies. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, Xinwangwei, Saiteng, Jiefa Technology and other companies have implemented pre-installed products, but they are basically still focused on relatively simple control applications such as windows, lighting, and cooling systems, while in complex fields such as power control, smart cockpit, and ADAS Fewer applications.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb418fcf793a1eaee6932ee868f186a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688595\">Chipsea Technology</a>The MCU passed AEC-Q100 automotive-grade certification in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">GigaDevice Innovation</a>Automotive-grade MCU products will enter the tape-out stage around mid-2021, and their NOR Flash has passed automotive-grade certification.Let's focus on GigaDevice Innovation. At present, the company's businesses that are about to see rising volume and price include DRAM, Nor Flash and MCU. Both Nor and MCU are core main chips for IoT and automotive use and can reach a market space of 20-30 billion US dollars.Taking MCU as an example, the global MCU manufacturing process is mainly concentrated in mature manufacturing ranges such as 180/130 nm, 90nm and 40nm. Under the current tight MCU production capacity situation, GigaDevice relies on the SiP packaging model to quickly transfer factories to gain production capacity flexibility; In addition, since the company has raised prices many times since 2021, the average ASP in 20 years is 4 yuan, and it is expected to reach 5 yuan in 21 years. It will continue to benefit from the domestic substitution dividend brought about by this round of shortages and price increases.GigaDevice also launched its own brand DRAM products in June this year. On the one hand, it relies on Changxin to obtain technical and production capacity support. 19nm DDR4 and 17nm DDR3 have surpassed Winbond and Nanya Branch in niche market manufacturing processes; On the other hand, niche DRAM is essentially similar to NOR Flash and MCU, both of which have long-tail customer attributes. GigaDevice has the most complete niche market sales channels and 20,000 + customers in the country, which can empower subsequent niche DRAM sales. The market share is expected to increase rapidly.The revenue share of the company's MCU and Nor Flash is constantly increasing, which also proves the logic mentioned earlier.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c449f10b84e86419c917162399c00b86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">GigaDevice's innovative layout has currently completed the synergy of three product lines: DRAM, MCU and Nor Flash. With the current industry prosperity and the strengthening trend of domestic substitution, the market space is huge, and GigaDevice's growth attributes will be highlighted in the next 2-3 years.In addition, in the field of MCU, downstream applications in the Internet of Things, smart wearable devices, industrial control and other fields also have very obvious growth. Core token companies include Espressif Technology, Beijing Junzheng, Chipsea Technology, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6deeec58253bba54c9fdde500f9ee005\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under the general trend of intelligent electronic products, the demand for MCUs in almost all electronic products will increase. In the past, overseas manufacturers occupied the main market share. However, it often takes 1-2 years for these products to enter the downstream supply chain, and it is difficult for domestic manufacturers to enter the supply chain under normal circumstances.After years of accumulation, domestic manufacturers' product technical indicators have gradually met the needs of downstream customers. The epidemic + the outbreak of downstream demand has led to shortages of overseas suppliers. Domestic manufacturers can deliver products in a shorter delivery time, and domestic MCU leading manufacturers are accelerating the introduction of various downstream end customers, accelerating domestic substitution.It is expected that good performance will be achieved in 2021.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>They are all speculating on chips. 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What chips are most lacking, and where are the opportunities?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-06-28 11:55\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe higher the degree of downstream prosperity, the higher the demand for chips. The chip shortage has been going on for more than half a year. From the end of last year to the present, the chip shortage has continued to worsen. Major wafer foundries and IC design companies (including IDM) around the world have announced price increases.This year's Q2 started the second wave of price increases, followed by the third wave of price increases in July. The entire industry is talking about the shortage of chips. What chips are most lacking?We have mentioned many times in recent reports that from the perspective of the industrial chain, wafer manufacturing in the midstream includes design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing. Among them, design companies are the ones that benefit most from this round of semiconductor upward cycle. Due to the high downstream prosperity (especially new energy vehicles and small household appliances), design companies can well transmit the price increase in the manufacturing process to the downstream. And because design companies control customers, such companies have stronger bargaining power on downstream applications when the market supply is in short supply, which is one of the core reasons why design companies perform better in terms of stock prices.There are many downstream applications of semiconductors, and the direction we are focusing on today is the most scarce MCU (Micro controller Unit).The MCU can be understood as a small CPU, that is, the frequency and specifications of the normal CPU are reduced, and then the memory, counter, USB, A/D conversion, UART and even LCD driver circuit are integrated into a single chip. On the chip, a micro computer is formed. This chip can realize programming functions and control the terminal by writing programs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2d39cbf219a94c46d12deadc16e6b1\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's first take a look at how scarce the MCU is now. Originally, the normal delivery time was only 8-10 weeks, but now it has been greatly extended. Major international manufacturers include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>And so on, the delivery time has been greatly extended several times.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc53edafefaa241dcc4e64cc3aa2d2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, the price of MCU is also soaring. Take STMicroelectronics' best-selling model STM32F103RCT6 as an example. It was only 12.35 yuan/piece in 2019, 73.13 yuan/piece in December 2020, and reached 157.95 yuan in May 2021./piece, an increase of more than 10 times in two years.From the current delivery date of the product and the price increase, it can be seen that MCU is currently in a state of very shortage.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51543db28dce27f8c5038059c54b9acf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The direction of high downstream prosperityWhen we talk about the investment logic of IC design, foreign manufacturers focus on the IDM model, and domestic manufacturers focus on the Fabless model. For a pure design company like Fabless, a key point is to look at the prosperity of its downstream applications. Generally speaking, the higher the degree of downstream prosperity, the higher the degree of chip prosperity (that is, demand). And after that, let's see how the company can obtain production capacity.The application scenarios of MCU can be divided into several analogies, such as the Internet of Things (communication + MCU integration), consumer electronics (IoT,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home and smart wearables), automotive electronics (fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles), industrial control (industrial intelligence), etc. Among them, the current best prosperity is small household appliances in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles in cars.Next we will start withLet's look in these two directions to see which companies will benefit from the high prosperity of small household appliances and new energy vehicles.1. Small home appliancesFirst, let's look at the main MCU companies in the field of small household appliances:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300327\">Zhongying Electronics</a>300327. SZ, whose main business is MCU chip design, the main direction of downstream applications is the field of small household appliances, and it is also gradually expanding to other industrial and consumer scenarios, among which the field of household appliances has the highest market share.The domestic small home appliance MCU market share is about 20%, ranking among the top three; However, the market share of white goods is less than 10%. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the new demand brought by the localization of the supply chain of domestic downstream white goods manufacturers such as Midea, as well as the ASP improvement brought by the upgrade of the company's products from non-inverter to inverter air conditioners.Under the development trend of intelligent and high-end home appliances, with the increasing number of home appliance categories and the upgrading of home appliance MCUs in the future, the company's turnover in the field of small home appliance MCUs will continue to expand steadily.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e557a603f461248f474e6f1c414531d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Against the background of insufficient supply of industrial production capacity, the price of wafer manufacturers is rising. In the case of a shortage of chips, Zhongying is also appropriately transmitting costs to the downstream. Most products have raised prices from January 1, 2021. The price adjustment mainly reflects the adjustment rate of the upstream supply chain. If the production capacity is resolved in the future, product prices may be subject to some slight downward adjustment pressure every year.Since last year, Zhongying has taken corresponding measures, laid out in advance, and actively responded to upstream supply chains such as wafer fabs and packaging and testing plants to strive for production capacity. For example, most of Zhongying is engaged in 8-inch wafer foundry with mature manufacturing processes, and a small part of The chip manufacturing process has been transferred from 8-inch to 12-inch wafer foundry, bringing some new production capacity. However, the company's downstream demand is strong, and the new production capacity it strives for in the short term still cannot absorb the demand of customer orders. The company and distributors basically have no inventory, and the shortage of MCUs will continue in the short term.Overall, the logic of Zhongying Electronics' rising volume and price is relatively clear.2. New energy vehiclesThe global and domestic automotive MCU markets are mainly composed of NXP, Renesas, Infineon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCHP\">Microchip Technology</a>Occupy, accounting for about 85% of the market share. Due to the strict quality of automotive-grade MCU products, the complicated certification process and large investment, it is difficult to make a profit in the short term, and due to the late start of domestic automotive MCUs, few companies are involved in this field of business.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99a6b9194365f8290a34c6e25986286\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At present, domestic companies that have mass-produced MCUs mainly include: Jiefa Technology, Shanghai Xinwang Microelectronics, Saiteng Microelectronics, China Micro Semiconductor and other companies. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, Xinwangwei, Saiteng, Jiefa Technology and other companies have implemented pre-installed products, but they are basically still focused on relatively simple control applications such as windows, lighting, and cooling systems, while in complex fields such as power control, smart cockpit, and ADAS Fewer applications.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb418fcf793a1eaee6932ee868f186a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688595\">Chipsea Technology</a>The MCU passed AEC-Q100 automotive-grade certification in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">GigaDevice Innovation</a>Automotive-grade MCU products will enter the tape-out stage around mid-2021, and their NOR Flash has passed automotive-grade certification.Let's focus on GigaDevice Innovation. At present, the company's businesses that are about to see rising volume and price include DRAM, Nor Flash and MCU. Both Nor and MCU are core main chips for IoT and automotive use and can reach a market space of 20-30 billion US dollars.Taking MCU as an example, the global MCU manufacturing process is mainly concentrated in mature manufacturing ranges such as 180/130 nm, 90nm and 40nm. Under the current tight MCU production capacity situation, GigaDevice relies on the SiP packaging model to quickly transfer factories to gain production capacity flexibility; In addition, since the company has raised prices many times since 2021, the average ASP in 20 years is 4 yuan, and it is expected to reach 5 yuan in 21 years. It will continue to benefit from the domestic substitution dividend brought about by this round of shortages and price increases.GigaDevice also launched its own brand DRAM products in June this year. On the one hand, it relies on Changxin to obtain technical and production capacity support. 19nm DDR4 and 17nm DDR3 have surpassed Winbond and Nanya Branch in niche market manufacturing processes; On the other hand, niche DRAM is essentially similar to NOR Flash and MCU, both of which have long-tail customer attributes. GigaDevice has the most complete niche market sales channels and 20,000 + customers in the country, which can empower subsequent niche DRAM sales. The market share is expected to increase rapidly.The revenue share of the company's MCU and Nor Flash is constantly increasing, which also proves the logic mentioned earlier.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c449f10b84e86419c917162399c00b86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">GigaDevice's innovative layout has currently completed the synergy of three product lines: DRAM, MCU and Nor Flash. With the current industry prosperity and the strengthening trend of domestic substitution, the market space is huge, and GigaDevice's growth attributes will be highlighted in the next 2-3 years.In addition, in the field of MCU, downstream applications in the Internet of Things, smart wearable devices, industrial control and other fields also have very obvious growth. Core token companies include Espressif Technology, Beijing Junzheng, Chipsea Technology, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6deeec58253bba54c9fdde500f9ee005\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under the general trend of intelligent electronic products, the demand for MCUs in almost all electronic products will increase. In the past, overseas manufacturers occupied the main market share. However, it often takes 1-2 years for these products to enter the downstream supply chain, and it is difficult for domestic manufacturers to enter the supply chain under normal circumstances.After years of accumulation, domestic manufacturers' product technical indicators have gradually met the needs of downstream customers. The epidemic + the outbreak of downstream demand has led to shortages of overseas suppliers. Domestic manufacturers can deliver products in a shorter delivery time, and domestic MCU leading manufacturers are accelerating the introduction of various downstream end customers, accelerating domestic substitution.It is expected that good performance will be achieved in 2021.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116935305","content_text":"下游景气程度越高，芯片需求也会随之越高。\n\n芯片短缺已经超过半年的时间了，从去年年底到现在，芯片紧缺的程度持续在加重，全球各大晶圆代工厂、IC设计公司（包括IDM）纷纷宣布涨价，今年Q2开启第二波涨价，紧接着在7月份又将迎来第三波的涨价。整个行业都在说缺芯，到底什么芯片最缺呢？\n我们在最近的报告里多次提到，从产业链的角度来看，中游的晶圆制造里包括设计、制造和封测，这里面在本轮半导体向上周期里最受益的是设计公司。由于下游景气度高企（尤其是新能源车和小家电），设计公司能很好的将制造环节价格的上涨传导到下游。并且由于设计公司掌握着客户，在市场供给紧缺的情况下，这类公司对下游应用端有更强的议价能力，这也是为什么设计公司在股价上表现更佳的核心原因之一。\n半导体的下游应用非常多，而我们今天关注的方向，就是当下最紧缺的MCU，（Micro controller Unit，微控制单元）。\n可以把MCU理解为是一个小型的CPU，也就是把正常CPU的频率、规格做一些缩减，然后将内存、计数器、USB、A/D转换、UART甚至包括LCD驱动电路等都整合在单一的芯片上，形成一个微型的计算机。这种芯片可以实现编程的功能，通过写入程序对终端进行控制。\n\n先看看MCU现在紧缺到什么程度。原本正常只需要8-10周的交期，现在大幅延长，国际大厂包括英飞凌、恩智浦、意法半导体等都出现交期大幅延长数倍的情况。\n\n与此同时，MCU的价格也在飞涨，以意法半导体的热销型号STM32F103RCT6为例，19年的时候仅为12.35元/片，20年12月为73.13元/片，21年5月达到了157.95元/片，两年超过10倍的涨幅。\n从产品现在的交期和价格上涨的幅度，可以看出目前MCU是处于非常紧缺的状态的。\n\n下游景气度高企的方向\n我们说IC设计的投资逻辑，国外厂商IDM模式为主，国内厂商Fabless模式为主，而对于Fabless这种纯设计的公司，很关键的一点是要看它下游应用的景气程度。一般来说，下游景气程度越高，芯片的景气度（也就是需求）也会随之越高。而在这之后，再去看公司能获得产能的情况。\nMCU的应用场景可以分为几个类比，如物联网（通信+MCU集成）、消费电子（IoT，智能家居与智能穿戴）、汽车电子（燃油车及新能源车）、工业控制（工业智能化）等。其中当前景气度最佳的是消费电子中的小家电和汽车里的新能源车。\n接下来我们就从这两个方向去看看哪些公司将受益于小家电和新能源车的高景气度。\n1、小家电\n首先来看小家电领域MCU的主要公司为中颖电子300327.SZ，主营业务是MCU芯片设计，下游应用的主要方向的小家电领域，同时也在逐步拓展至其他工业和消费场景，其中市占率最高的是家电领域。\n在国内小家电MCU的市场份额约为20%，处于前三的位置；但在白色家电的市占率不足10%，未来将持续受益于国内下游白色家电厂商如美的等供应链国产化带来的新增需求，以及公司产品由非变频向变频空调升级带来的ASP提高。\n在家电智能化、高端化的发展趋势下，未来随着家电品类的不断增多以及家电MCU的更新换代，公司在小家电MCU领域的营业额也将继续稳步扩大。\n\n在产业产能供应不足的大背景下，晶圆制造厂价格在上涨，在芯片紧缺的情况下，中颖也在适当向下游传导成本，大部分产品从2021年1月1日起提过价，调价主要反应上游供应链调涨幅度。未来如产能得到解决之后，产品价格可能会每年有些微向下调整的压力。\n中颖自去年起已采取因应措施，提前布局，积极应对晶圆厂、封装测试厂等上游供应链争取产能，如中颖大部分都是在成熟制程的8吋做晶圆代工，小部分芯片制程由8吋转至12吋做晶圆代工部分，带来一些新增的产能。但公司下游需求旺盛，短期争取的新增产能还是无法消化客户订单需求，公司和经销商基本没库存，短期内MCU紧缺的情况还将继续。\n整体来看，中颖电子量价齐升的逻辑还是比较清晰的。\n2、新能源汽车\n全球以及国内车载MCU市场主要由恩智浦、瑞萨、英飞凌、德州仪器、微芯科技占领，共占约85%市场份额。由于汽车级MCU产品品质严苛，认证过程很复杂，投入大，短期内难有盈利，并且由于国内车载MCU起步晚，较少公司涉及该领域业务。\n\n目前国内MCU已量产的公司主要有：杰发科技、上海芯旺微电子、赛腾微电子、中微半导体等公司。其中，比亚迪、芯旺微、赛腾、杰发科技等企业已经实现前装产品，但基本还停留在车窗、照明、冷却系统等相对简单的控制应用上，而在动力控制、智能座舱、ADAS复杂领域的应用较少。\n\n而芯海科技MCU于2020年通过AEC-Q100车规级认证，兆易创新车规级MCU产品2021年中左右进入流片环节，其NOR Flash已经通过车规级认证。\n我们来重点说说兆易创新。目前公司即将迎来量价齐升的业务包括DRAM、Nor Flash和MCU，Nor和MCU均为IoT和车用的核心主芯片可以触及到200-300亿美元的市场空间。\n以MCU为例，全球MCU制程主要集中在180/130nm、90nm和40nm等成熟制程范围，在当前MCU产能紧张情况下，兆易凭借SiP封装模式快速转厂获得产能弹性；另外，在公司自21年以来多次上调价格，20年平均ASP为4元，预计21年有望达到5元，持续受益于这一轮缺货涨价带来的国产替代红利。\n兆易在今年6月还推出自主品牌DRAM产品，一方面背靠长鑫获得技术和产能上支持，19nm DDR4和17nm DDR3在利基市场制程上已经超过华邦电和南亚科；另一方面，利基DRAM本质上与NOR Flash和MCU类似，均具有长尾客户属性，兆易拥有全国最完善的利基市场销售渠道和2万+客户，可以为后续利基DRAM销售赋能，预计市占率将快速提升。\n公司MCU和Nor Flash的营收占比在不断提升，也证明到了前面说的逻辑。\n\n兆易创新布局目前完成DRAM、MCU和Nor Flash三条产品线协同，在当前行业景气度和国产替代趋势加强的情况下，市场空间极大，兆易未来2-3年成长属性凸显。\n除此之外，在MCU领域，下游在物联网、智能可穿戴设备、工业控制等领域的应用也有非常明显的增长核心的代币公司包括乐鑫科技、北京君正、芯海科技等。\n\n在电子产品智能化的大趋势下，几乎所有电子产品对MCU的需求都会加强，以往都是海外大厂占据了主要的市场份额。但由于这些产品进入下游供应链往往需要1-2年的时间，而且正常情况下国内厂商很难切入供应链。\n国内的厂商经过多年的积累，产品技术指标已经逐步满足下游客户的需求，此次疫情+下游需求爆发，导致海外供应商缺货。而国内厂商能以更短的交期交付产品，国内MCU头部厂商正在加速导入下游各类的终端客户，加速了国产替代。\n预计2021年都将取得不错的业绩表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}